Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) AI Stock Analysis

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Ionis Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:IONS)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

$35.00

▼(-0.82%Downside)

Ionis Pharmaceuticals' overall stock score is primarily influenced by significant financial challenges, offset by positive earnings guidance and promising product developments. Financial performance remains a critical concern, but strategic product launches and improved guidance provide a positive outlook, contributing to a moderate overall score.

Positive Factors

Competitive advantage

The Essence study suggests that olezarsen has competitive triglyceride-lowering capabilities, which bodes well for its commercial success in severe hypertriglyceridemia.

Efficacy of treatment

The trial hit the primary endpoint with statistically significant placebo-adjusted triglyceride reduction of 61/58% at 6 months for the 80mg/50mg doses.

Market potential

The positive safety data from the ESSENCE study is emphasized as important, given the large total addressable market for Tryngolza with around 1 million patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia in the U.S. alone.

Negative Factors

Investor focus

The pivotal readouts, now expected in the future, should remain the focus of attention for investors.

Market impact

ESSENCE is an incremental positive for IONS, but it is not expected to be stock-moving as olezarsen’s mechanism of action was de-risked through prior studies.

Study limitations

The readthrough to pivotal CORE/CORE2 studies is limited given that ESSENCE enrolled only about 9% of patients with characteristics of CORE/CORE2 trials.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.61B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.47M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.81

Revenue Growth-7.65%

EPS Growth-11.81%

CountryUS

Employees1,069

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength41

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.93

Shares Outstanding159,159,100

10 Day Avg. Volume1,435,347

30 Day Avg. Volume1,472,851

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-6.80

Price to Book (P/B)0.01

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-0.03

Enterprise Value/Market Cap205.22

Enterprise Value/Revenue378.73

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.64K

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-931.44

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$55.88

Price Target Upside58.35% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering20

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers and develops RNA-targeted therapeutics in the United States. The company offers SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) in pediatric and adult patients; TEGSEDI, an injection for the treatment of polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis in adults; and WAYLIVRA, a treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome and familial partial lipodystrophy. It also develops medicines for various indications that are in phase 3 study, including Eplontersen as a monthly self-administered subcutaneous injection to treat all types of TTR amyloidosis; Olezarsen for patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG); Donidalorsen for patients with hereditary angioedema; ION363 for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; Pelacarsen for patients with established cardiovascular disease and elevated lipoprotein(a); and Tofersen to inhibit the production of superoxide dismutase 1. In addition, the company develops medicines for metabolic diseases, infectious diseases, renal diseases, ophthalmic diseases, and cancer. It has a strategic collaboration with Biogen Inc.; and collaboration and license agreement with AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Novartis AG, Roche, Janssen Biotech, Inc., and Flamingo Therapeutics, Inc. Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyIonis Pharmaceuticals generates revenue through a combination of licensing agreements, collaborations, and royalties. The company partners with major pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize its drug candidates, receiving upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of successfully marketed products. Ionis also earns revenue from its own drug sales and from providing research and development services to its partners. Key collaborations with companies like Biogen, Novartis, and AstraZeneca significantly contribute to its earnings.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Product

Revenue by Product
Highlights earnings from individual products, providing insight into which drugs or therapies are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.

Chart InsightsIonis Pharmaceuticals is experiencing a dynamic shift in its revenue streams. Spinraza's revenue is declining, reflecting competitive pressures, while Wainua shows strong growth, indicating successful market penetration. Tegsedi and Waylivra's performance is inconsistent, suggesting market challenges. The earnings call highlights the successful launch of TRYNGOLZA and increased revenue guidance for 2025, driven by strategic licensing and a robust pipeline. Despite external risks and patient identification challenges, Ionis is positioned for substantial growth, supported by new product launches and a focus on expanding its market presence.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 18.38%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Ionis demonstrated strong financial performance and successful product launches despite external market uncertainties. The company increased its financial guidance and highlighted significant growth potential through upcoming product launches. However, challenges remain in patient identification and potential market disruptions.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increased Financial Guidance for 2025

Ionis increased its 2025 revenue guidance by more than 20% due to strong first-quarter results and recent successful licensing transactions, projecting $725 million to $750 million in revenue.

Successful Launch of TRYNGOLZA

TRYNGOLZA, the first FDA-approved treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, exceeded expectations with over $6 million in net product sales in its first full quarter on the market.

Upcoming Launches and Product Pipeline

Ionis is preparing for the launch of donidalorsen for hereditary angioedema in the third quarter and expects data from two Phase III programs later this year, which could lead to significant market opportunities.

Strong Commercial Revenue Growth

Commercial product revenues grew 28% year-over-year, with robust contributions from TRYNGOLZA, SPINRAZA, and WAINUA.

Negative Updates

Market Uncertainties and External Risks

The rapidly evolving environment, including changes at the FDA and new tariff policies, introduces uncertainties with potential for disruption in the industry.

Challenge of Patient Identification for TRYNGOLZA

The vast majority of the estimated 3,000 people living with FCS in the U.S. remain unidentified, posing a challenge for ongoing TRYNGOLZA uptake.

Regulatory and Tariff Concerns

While no immediate impacts have been reported, the potential regulatory changes and tariffs could pose future challenges for supply chains and operating costs.

Company Guidance

During the call, Ionis provided updated financial guidance, significantly raising their 2025 projections. Revenue guidance was increased by over 20% due to strong first-quarter results and successful licensing transactions, now expected to be in the range of $725 million to $750 million. The company also improved its non-GAAP operating loss guidance by nearly 25%, projecting it to be less than $375 million, and anticipates ending the year with $1.9 billion in cash. The revenue increase was attributed to the early commercial success of TRYNGOLZA, which generated over $6 million in net product sales in its first full quarter, and the completion of strategic licensing deals. Ionis emphasized its confidence in achieving substantial and sustained revenue growth, supported by a robust pipeline with potential multibillion-dollar peak sales.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ionis Pharmaceuticals faces significant financial challenges, including persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. Although it manages gross profit effectively, converting this into net profitability and positive cash flow remains a concern. The balance sheet shows high debt levels and declining equity, limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Negative

Ionis Pharmaceuticals has shown a trend of declining revenues and persistent losses. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 98.88%, indicating strong cost management relative to revenue. However, the company is experiencing significant operating losses, with a negative EBIT margin and net profit margin, highlighting profitability challenges. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with fluctuations year-on-year, and recent declines are concerning.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The company is heavily leveraged with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.96 in the TTM period. The stockholders' equity has been decreasing, indicating financial strain. Return on equity is negative due to net losses. Although cash and equivalents are substantial, the equity ratio of 16.90% indicates a weaker capital structure.

Cash Flow

Negative

Negative operating and free cash flows signal challenges in generating sufficient cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow issues. Free cash flow has been consistently negative, indicating ongoing capital expenditure and funding requirements, which could pose liquidity risks.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
717.44M	705.14M	787.65M	587.00M	810.00M	729.00M
	Gross Profit
701.33M	693.92M	778.51M	573.00M	799.00M	717.00M
	EBIT
-472.43M	-475.08M	-353.73M	-411.00M	-30.00M	-172.00M
	EBITDA
-385.60M	-475.08M	-230.01M	-227.76M	-239.00K	-107.88M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-458.03M	-453.90M	-366.29M	-270.00M	-29.00M	-487.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.30B	2.30B	2.33B	1.99B	2.12B	1.89B
	Total Assets
3.00B	3.00B	2.99B	2.53B	2.61B	2.39B
	Total Debt
1.42B	1.42B	1.45B	1.34B	1.16B	749.00M
	Net Debt
1.17B	1.17B	1.05B	-642.00M	-954.00M	-1.14B
	Total Liabilities
2.42B	2.42B	2.60B	1.96B	1.84B	1.55B
	Stockholders Equity
588.35M	588.35M	386.69M	573.00M	772.00M	843.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-569.17M	-546.23M	-335.52M	-294.47M	12.90M	-5.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-501.78M	-500.95M	-307.51M	-274.37M	30.80M	35.89M
	Investing Cash Flow
-39.67M	-134.03M	-214.13M	-262.64M	194.91M	274.48M
	Financing Cash Flow
456.69M	478.06M	644.08M	-55.30M	245.93M	-596.61M

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price35.29

Price Trends

50DMA

31.18

Positive

100DMA

31.90

Positive

200DMA

35.59

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.93

Negative

RSI

65.22

Neutral

STOCH

83.43

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IONS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.65, above the 50-day MA of 31.18, and below the 200-day MA of 35.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IONS.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Ionis Pharmaceuticals disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ionis Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALKS	78 Outperform	$5.20B	14.76	25.71%	―	-12.31%	-17.53%
KRYS	71 Outperform	$3.83B	32.98	13.90%	―	247.53%	118.34%
IONS	61 Neutral	$5.61B	―	-118.53%	―	-7.65%	-11.81%
SRPT	55 Neutral	$3.85B	19.61	-23.61%	―	59.15%	-1881.09%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.24B	3.27	-45.39%	2.80%	16.77%	-0.07%
AXSM	49 Neutral	$5.45B	―	-282.16%	―	72.16%	9.65%
CYTK	36 Underperform	$3.83B	―	435.49%	―	412.21%	1.75%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IONS

Ionis Pharmaceuticals

35.29

-4.50

-11.31%

ALKS

Alkermes

31.71

7.52

31.09%

CYTK

Cytokinetics

32.30

-21.86

-40.36%

SRPT

Sarepta Therapeutics

43.01

-79.58

-64.92%

AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics

111.91

40.11

55.86%

KRYS

Krystal Biotech

136.94

-39.89

-22.56%

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Product-Related Announcements

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Announces Positive Essence Study Results

Positive

May 19, 2025

On May 19, 2025, Ionis Pharmaceuticals announced positive results from the Essence study of olezarsen, showing significant reductions in triglyceride levels in people with moderate hypertriglyceridemia. The study met its primary and secondary endpoints, demonstrating a favorable safety profile, and supports olezarsen’s potential for broader use in treating severe hypertriglyceridemia, with further data expected in Q3 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (IONS) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock, see the IONS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.