Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.09B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 626.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: 72.16%
• EPS Growth: 9.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 712
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 49,236,366
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 733,603
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 626,923
• PEG Ratio: -0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 28.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -26.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.65
• 1Y Price Target: $179.23
• Price Target Upside: 73.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $108.00 ▲(4.49%Upside)

Axsome Therapeutics' overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive pipeline developments, balanced by significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. The company's strategic corporate actions and technical indicators provide moderate support, though valuation concerns persist.

Positive Factors

Earnings Potential

Visible Alpha consensus sales for 2025 are currently around $480 million, growing to approximately $1 billion by 2027.

Market Performance

Total Auvelity prescriptions for the first quarter reached about 167,000, representing a 5% quarter-over-quarter growth, in contrast to a sequential decline in the overall antidepressant market of about 2%.

Product Launch

Symbravo has become commercially available in the US and is expected to be a solid and steady contributor with significant projected peak year sales.

Negative Factors

Prescription Trends

Auvelity prescriptions saw a meaningful dip, with weekly TRx/NRx decline of -9%/-9%.

Regulatory Challenges

The FDA refusal to file letter regarding the new drug application for AXS-14 indicates a delay in potential approval times, impacting enthusiasm for the product.

Sales Projections

Management expects Symbravo sales in 2Q25 to be de minimis.

Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and delivering novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Based in New York, the company aims to address unmet medical needs through its innovative drug candidates. Axsome's core products include therapies targeting conditions such as major depressive disorder, migraine, and narcolepsy, leveraging its expertise in CNS pharmacology and drug delivery technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

Axsome Therapeutics makes money primarily through the development, commercialization, and potential sales of its proprietary drug candidates targeting CNS disorders. The company's revenue model includes multiple streams: upfront and milestone payments from licensing agreements, potential royalties from partnered products, and eventual sales of FDA-approved drugs. Revenue can also be generated from strategic collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may provide Axsome with funding to support its research and development activities. The success of Axsome's revenue model is highly dependent on the clinical progress and regulatory approval of its drug candidates.

Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Axsome Therapeutics exhibits strong revenue growth, particularly with a significant increase from $50M in 2022 to $432M in TTM 2025. However, persistent net losses, high leverage, negative equity, and cash flow challenges undermine overall financial health, reflecting common issues in research-intensive biotech firms.

Income Statement

Axsome Therapeutics has shown significant revenue growth over the past few years, highlighted by a substantial increase from $50M in 2022 to $432M TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative EBIT and net income margins due to high operating expenses and R&D costs typical in biotech. The gross profit margin remains healthy, reflecting strong product margins. Despite revenue growth, the consistent net losses detract from the overall income statement strength.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high level of liabilities compared to equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage. Stockholders' equity has been declining, which is concerning. Although cash reserves are substantial, the low equity ratio and negative equity in previous years suggest financial instability. The biotech industry's typical high leverage risk and reliance on external funding are evident here.

Cash Flow

Axsome Therapeutics faces challenges with cash flows, as evidenced by negative operating and free cash flows, compounded by substantial R&D investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, indicating persistent cash flow issues. While financing activities have supplemented cash reserves, the company remains heavily reliant on external financing to sustain operations, highlighting cash flow risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	432.16M	385.69M	270.60M	50.04M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	395.36M	352.39M	244.53M	44.84M	-1.16M	-77.72K
EBITDA	-266.13M	-272.60M	-224.99M	-174.23M	-123.55M	-99.06M
Net Income	-278.27M	-287.22M	-239.24M	-197.77M	-134.94M	-105.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	596.67M	568.50M	588.24M	331.48M	-338.36M	186.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	300.91M	315.35M	386.19M	200.84M	86.47M	183.88M
Total Debt	209.42M	192.96M	186.37M	94.68M	49.71M	50.12M
Total Liabilities	543.47M	511.48M	397.26M	221.92M	70.84M	72.34M
Stockholders Equity	53.20M	57.02M	190.98M	109.56M	-409.20M	-278.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-118.25M	-128.68M	-145.66M	-117.21M	-108.53M	-78.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-118.32M	-128.41M	-145.08M	-116.51M	-108.23M	-78.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-510.00K	-270.00K	-582.00K	-53.70M	-307.55K	-45.89K
Financing Cash Flow	88.30M	57.84M	331.01M	284.58M	11.13M	42.41M

Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 103.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 103.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.71, below the 50-day MA of 106.67, and above the 200-day MA of 102.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AXSM.

Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRYS	71 Outperform	$4.01B	33.45	13.90%	―	247.53%	118.34%
VRNA	68 Neutral	$7.99B	―	-72.73%	―	―	-157.53%
AXSM	54 Neutral	$5.09B	―	-282.16%	―	72.16%	9.65%
SRPT	53 Neutral	$1.68B	19.61	-23.61%	―	59.15%	-1881.09%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.41B	0.36	-61.88%	2.33%	16.99%	1.69%
BPMC	50 Neutral	$8.28B	―	-47.71%	―	99.19%	48.43%
CYTK	44 Neutral	$3.96B	―	435.49%	―	412.21%	1.75%

Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events

Axsome Therapeutics Launches SYMBRAVO for Migraine Relief

On June 10, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced the commercial availability of SYMBRAVO®, a novel treatment for acute migraine with or without aura in adults. SYMBRAVO offers a multi-mechanistic approach, providing rapid and sustained pain relief, and is supported by comprehensive patient services. This launch addresses a significant unmet need in migraine treatment, potentially benefiting millions of individuals dissatisfied with existing options.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 6, Axsome Therapeutics presented four proposals, all of which were approved by the shareholders. These included the election of a Class I director, approval of the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation. The approval of these proposals reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued strategic growth and governance stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

FDA Refuses Axsome’s NDA for Fibromyalgia Drug

On June 9, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced that the FDA issued a Refusal to File letter for its NDA for AXS-14, a drug intended for fibromyalgia management. The FDA found one of the trials inadequate due to its design, prompting Axsome to plan an additional trial in late 2025 to meet FDA requirements, reflecting the company’s commitment to addressing unmet needs in fibromyalgia treatment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Settles Patent Litigation on SUNOSI

On May 27, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced a settlement agreement with Hetero Labs Ltd. to resolve patent litigation regarding Axsome’s product SUNOSI (solriamfetol). The agreement allows Hetero to sell a generic version of SUNOSI in the U.S. starting in 2040, contingent on FDA approval and other conditions. This settlement is subject to review by U.S. regulatory authorities, and similar litigation with other parties remains pending.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Secures $570M Loan with Blackstone

On May 8, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics entered into a $570 million loan agreement with Blackstone, replacing its previous loan with Hercules Capital. This agreement, which includes a term loan and revolving credit facility, is expected to reduce interest expenses and support Axsome’s growth and profitability goals. The company also completed a private placement of common stock with Blackstone, raising approximately $15 million. These financial moves aim to enhance Axsome’s operational and financial agility, supporting its mission to improve patient outcomes in CNS disorders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.