Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM)
NASDAQ:AXSM
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Axsome Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AXSM)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$228.00
▲(20.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and a leveraged balance sheet), despite very strong revenue growth and high gross margins. Technicals are supportive with strong upward trend and positive momentum, but overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk. The earnings call was a meaningful positive catalyst (FDA approval and strong commercial execution), while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Revenue scale & high gross margins
Axsome has rapidly scaled revenue (from $270.6M in 2023 to $708.2M TTM) while maintaining very high gross margins (~91%–93%). Those unit economics imply durable product profitability potential: once fixed SG&A/R&D growth moderates, operating leverage could convert high gross margins into sustainable profits.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Axsome remains cash‑burning with TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both negative (~-$70M). Durable profitability depends on converting revenue growth into positive operating cash; until then the company is reliant on financing or disciplined cost reduction, making runway sensitive to commercial and expense execution.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue scale & high gross margins
Axsome has rapidly scaled revenue (from $270.6M in 2023 to $708.2M TTM) while maintaining very high gross margins (~91%–93%). Those unit economics imply durable product profitability potential: once fixed SG&A/R&D growth moderates, operating leverage could convert high gross margins into sustainable profits.
Read all positive factors
Axsome Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxsome Therapeutics (AXSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.72B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)576.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth63.88%
EPS Growth35.18%
CountryUS
Employees712
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.73
Shares Outstanding51,459,766
10 Day Avg. Volume589,851
30 Day Avg. Volume576,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)102.90
Price to Sales (P/S)14.23
P/FCF Ratio-96.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-67.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$261.88Price Target Upside38.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$983.80M
Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment ...
How the Company Makes Money
Axsome primarily makes money by commercializing prescription CNS medicines. Its key revenue streams are (1) net product sales of AUVELITY in the U.S., generated through sales to wholesalers/specialty pharmacies and other customers, with revenue dr...
Axsome Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys strong commercial momentum and multiple material positive milestones: 57% YoY revenue growth, AUVELITY's new FDA approval and upgraded $8B peak-sales outlook, sales-force expansions, meaningful payer wins, and an advancing late-stage pipeline with recent BD adding AXS-20. Offsetting risks include materially higher SG&A, elevated gross-to-net discounts (notably for SYMBRAVO), a modest widening of net loss, a slight decline in cash, and remaining clinical/regulatory uncertainties for several pipeline assets. On balance, the positives (robust revenue growth, regulatory wins, and clear commercial execution) significantly outweigh the near-term financial and access headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Negative Updates
Elevated Gross-to-Net Discounts
AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross-to-net discounts were in the low-to-mid-50% range in Q1 2026; SYMBRAVO gross-to-net discount remained elevated in the high-70% range, pressuring realized revenue and expected to remain elevated near term.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided robust commercial and pipeline guidance backed by many specific metrics: Q1 total revenue for the three marketed products was $191.2M (+57% YoY) driven by AUVELITY net product revenue of $153.2M (+59%), SUNOSI $33.9M (+34%, including $32.6M in net sales and $1.3M royalties) and SYMBRAVO $4.1M; AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross‑to‑net discounts were in the low‑to‑mid‑50s (expected to improve) while SYMBRAVO was in the high‑70s. Financials and runway: cost of revenue $14.7M, R&D $52.7M, SG&A $185M, net loss $64.5M ($1.26/sh) including $23.4M stock‑based comp, and cash of $305M (said to be sufficient to fund operations into cash‑flow positivity). Commercial posture and peak guidance: AUVELITY had >223,000 scripts in the quarter (+35% YoY), ~60,000 unique prescribers (5,500 new in Q1), 78% commercial/100% Medicare‑Medicaid coverage (86% total), an expanded sales force to ~630 reps targeting ~68,000 HCPs and updated peak sales potential of at least $8B (≈$4B per indication); SYMBRAVO had >17,000 scripts (+36% vs Q4), ~57% coverage with a new 17M‑lives contract and a rep force of ~150; SUNOSI had ~54,000 scripts (+16% YoY), >16,500 prescribers and ~83% coverage. Pipeline/regulatory guidance: a pipeline of 6 candidates targeting 10 indications, NDA submitted for AXS‑12 (narcolepsy/cataplexy; ~185,000 U.S. patients), multiple Phase III starts imminent (including solriamfetol ENGAGE topline H2 2026 and a shift‑work trial with topline 2027) and Phase‑III enabling work for AXS‑20 this year.Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 708.24M | 638.50M | 385.69M | 270.60M | 50.04M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 655.82M | 591.02M | 352.39M | 244.53M | 44.84M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -172.72M | -168.08M | -272.60M | -224.99M | -175.40M | -124.63M |
| Net Income | -188.30M | -183.17M | -287.22M | -239.24M | -187.13M | -130.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 713.61M | 689.80M | 568.50M | 588.24M | 331.48M | 87.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 305.11M | 322.93M | 315.35M | 386.19M | 200.84M | 86.47M |
| Total Debt | 216.71M | 241.29M | 192.96M | 186.37M | 94.68M | 49.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 659.02M | 601.51M | 511.48M | 397.26M | 221.92M | 72.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.59M | 88.30M | 57.02M | 190.98M | 109.56M | 15.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.99M | -93.89M | -128.68M | -145.66M | -117.21M | -108.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -70.73M | -93.41M | -128.41M | -145.08M | -116.51M | -108.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -263.00K | -480.00K | -270.00K | -582.00K | -53.70M | -308.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 75.19M | 101.47M | 57.84M | 331.01M | 284.58M | 11.13M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
188.99
Price Trends
170.47
Positive
167.31
Positive
143.53
Positive
Market Momentum
5.36
Negative
71.98
Negative
95.45
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 188.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.66, above the 50-day MA of 170.47, and above the 200-day MA of 143.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axsome Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $5.12B | -7.69 | -29.22% | ― | 56.70% | -13.77% | |
60 Neutral | $11.72B | -33.52 | -260.01% | ― | 63.88% | 35.18% | |
56 Neutral | $9.44B | -9.86 | 139.66% | ― | 450.60% | -28.90% | |
54 Neutral | $226.31M | -3.44 | -36.99% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $8.08B | -18.44 | -42.78% | ― | ― | -37.66% | |
52 Neutral | $6.20B | -26.56 | -203.25% | ― | 58.67% | -11.45% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
227.72
120.19
111.77%
CYTK
Cytokinetics
75.85
44.85
144.68%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
90.52
30.59
51.04%
LEGN
Legend Biotech
27.55
-0.23
-0.83%
RNA
Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.
13.23
-1.52
-10.31%
NUVL
Nuvalent
102.30
28.98
39.53%
Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Axsome Highlights Strong Q1 Growth and AUVELITY Expansion
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics reported first quarter 2026 net product revenue of $191.2 million, up 57% year over year, driven primarily by AUVELITY sales of $153.2 million and supported by growth in SUNOSI and SYMBRAVO. Despite higher RD an...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Axsome Wins FDA Nod for Alzheimer’s Agitation Drug
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Axsome announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved AUVELITY for the treatment of agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease, making it a first-in-class therapy for this highly prevalent...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axsome acquires global rights to Takeda’s balipodect
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced an asset purchase agreement to acquire exclusive global rights from Takeda to balipodect (TAK-063), a novel, oral, potent and selective phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitor. The company plans to develop t...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Axsome secures long-term SUNOSI exclusivity through Alkem settlement
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced a settlement agreement with Alkem Laboratories resolving patent litigation over SUNOSI, its solriamfetol‑based therapy, stemming from Alkem’s Abbreviated New Drug Application to marke...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.