Want to see AXSM full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Axsome Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AXSM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$221.00
▼(-8.30% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
AXSM scores in the middle primarily because strong earnings-call momentum (rapid revenue growth and a meaningful AUVELITY regulatory milestone) is offset by weak current financial fundamentals (ongoing losses, negative cash flow, and high leverage). Technicals add modest pressure given below-trend moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and lack of dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & gross margin
Axsome has scaled U.S. product sales rapidly and generates very high product margins (~93% TTM). That structural margin profile gives durable operating leverage: as commercial scale continues, high gross profitability can fund R&D and commercialization and accelerate the path to sustained operating profitability.
Negative Factors
Negative operating & free cash flow
Axsome remains cash‑consumptive with negative operating and free cash flow (TTM ~ -$71M). Although cash burn has narrowed, persistent negative FCF forces reliance on financing until margins or revenue convert to sustained positive cash generation, limiting strategic flexibility and increasing dilution/refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & gross margin
Axsome has scaled U.S. product sales rapidly and generates very high product margins (~93% TTM). That structural margin profile gives durable operating leverage: as commercial scale continues, high gross profitability can fund R&D and commercialization and accelerate the path to sustained operating profitability.
Read all positive factors
Axsome Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxsome Therapeutics (AXSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth56.87%
EPS Growth25.87%
CountryUS
Employees1,220
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.75
Shares Outstanding52,380,817
10 Day Avg. Volume706,319
30 Day Avg. Volume1,019,090
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)102.90
Price to Sales (P/S)14.23
P/FCF Ratio-96.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$291.00Price Target Upside20.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$967.64M
Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative treatments for a range of central nervous system (CNS) disorders within the United States. Its robust product pipeline features several prom...
How the Company Makes Money
Axsome makes money primarily through U.S. net product sales of its commercial medicines. Revenue is generated by selling AUVELITY and SUNOSI into the prescription market; reported sales are recorded net of typical pharmaceutical deductions such as...
Axsome Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys strong commercial momentum and multiple material positive milestones: 57% YoY revenue growth, AUVELITY's new FDA approval and upgraded $8B peak-sales outlook, sales-force expansions, meaningful payer wins, and an advancing late-stage pipeline with recent BD adding AXS-20. Offsetting risks include materially higher SG&A, elevated gross-to-net discounts (notably for SYMBRAVO), a modest widening of net loss, a slight decline in cash, and remaining clinical/regulatory uncertainties for several pipeline assets. On balance, the positives (robust revenue growth, regulatory wins, and clear commercial execution) significantly outweigh the near-term financial and access headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Negative Updates
Elevated Gross-to-Net Discounts
AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross-to-net discounts were in the low-to-mid-50% range in Q1 2026; SYMBRAVO gross-to-net discount remained elevated in the high-70% range, pressuring realized revenue and expected to remain elevated near term.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided robust commercial and pipeline guidance backed by many specific metrics: Q1 total revenue for the three marketed products was $191.2M (+57% YoY) driven by AUVELITY net product revenue of $153.2M (+59%), SUNOSI $33.9M (+34%, including $32.6M in net sales and $1.3M royalties) and SYMBRAVO $4.1M; AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross‑to‑net discounts were in the low‑to‑mid‑50s (expected to improve) while SYMBRAVO was in the high‑70s. Financials and runway: cost of revenue $14.7M, R&D $52.7M, SG&A $185M, net loss $64.5M ($1.26/sh) including $23.4M stock‑based comp, and cash of $305M (said to be sufficient to fund operations into cash‑flow positivity). Commercial posture and peak guidance: AUVELITY had >223,000 scripts in the quarter (+35% YoY), ~60,000 unique prescribers (5,500 new in Q1), 78% commercial/100% Medicare‑Medicaid coverage (86% total), an expanded sales force to ~630 reps targeting ~68,000 HCPs and updated peak sales potential of at least $8B (≈$4B per indication); SYMBRAVO had >17,000 scripts (+36% vs Q4), ~57% coverage with a new 17M‑lives contract and a rep force of ~150; SUNOSI had ~54,000 scripts (+16% YoY), >16,500 prescribers and ~83% coverage. Pipeline/regulatory guidance: a pipeline of 6 candidates targeting 10 indications, NDA submitted for AXS‑12 (narcolepsy/cataplexy; ~185,000 U.S. patients), multiple Phase III starts imminent (including solriamfetol ENGAGE topline H2 2026 and a shift‑work trial with topline 2027) and Phase‑III enabling work for AXS‑20 this year.Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 776.57M | 638.50M | 385.69M | 270.60M | 50.04M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 724.04M | 591.02M | 352.39M | 244.53M | 44.84M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -179.79M | -168.08M | -272.60M | -224.99M | -175.40M | -124.63M |
| Net Income | -191.64M | -183.17M | -287.22M | -239.24M | -187.13M | -130.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 761.45M | 689.80M | 568.50M | 588.24M | 331.48M | 87.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 319.85M | 322.93M | 315.35M | 386.19M | 200.84M | 86.47M |
| Total Debt | 219.21M | 241.29M | 192.96M | 186.37M | 94.68M | 49.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 678.14M | 601.51M | 511.48M | 397.26M | 221.92M | 72.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 83.30M | 88.30M | 57.02M | 190.98M | 109.56M | 15.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -71.39M | -93.89M | -128.68M | -145.66M | -117.21M | -108.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -71.26M | -93.41M | -128.41M | -145.08M | -116.51M | -108.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -700.00K | -480.00K | -270.00K | -582.00K | -53.70M | -308.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 88.79M | 101.47M | 57.84M | 331.01M | 284.58M | 11.13M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
241.00
Price Trends
234.90
Negative
217.61
Negative
189.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-6.18
Positive
40.26
Neutral
34.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 241 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 223.55, above the 50-day MA of 234.90, and above the 200-day MA of 189.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXSM.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axsome Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $7.95B | -37.13 | -80.48% | ― | 53.51% | -3.31% | |
52 Neutral | $3.95B | -40.74 | -8.70% | ― | 59.59% | 71.96% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $11.19B | -56.98 | -255.60% | ― | 56.87% | 25.87% | |
49 Neutral | $10.31B | -10.28 | 163.98% | ― | -21.07% | -41.03% | |
45 Neutral | $219.64M | -4.81 | -29.67% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
213.67
102.54
92.27%
CYTK
Cytokinetics
74.13
35.18
90.32%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
115.48
17.39
17.73%
LEGN
Legend Biotech
20.37
-17.08
-45.61%
RNA
Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.
12.84
-1.91
-12.95%
Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axsome reports strong Q2 revenue growth, expanding launches
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
Axsome Therapeutics reported that in the second quarter of 2026, total net product revenue rose 46% year over year to $218.4 million, driven by 51% growth in AUVELITY sales to $180.3 million, 20% growth in SUNOSI revenue to $35.8 million, and a sh...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Axsome Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
At Axsome Therapeutics’ 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 5, 2026, shareholders voted on the election of two Class II directors, the ratification of the company’s independent auditor, and a non-binding advisory resolutio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Axsome adopts new executive severance and control plan
Neutral
Jun 9, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics’ board-level Compensation Committee approved an Executive Severance and Change in Control Plan that standardizes severance protections for key executives and vice presidents. The plan replaces prior sever...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Axsome secures long-term U.S. exclusivity for SUNOSI
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced it had resolved all patent litigation surrounding its wake-promoting therapy SUNOSI (solriamfetol), which had stemmed from Abbreviated New Drug Applications filed by would-be generic competitors in th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.