Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 614.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 65.83%
• EPS Growth: 28.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 712
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.94
• Shares Outstanding: 50,412,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 949,082
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 614,237
• PEG Ratio: -1.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 71.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -28.11
• 1Y Price Target: $202.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $172.00 ▼(-2.73% Downside)

The score is primarily restrained by weak financial quality—ongoing losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and high leverage—despite very strong gross margins and revenue growth. Technicals and recent company updates (strong revenue momentum and regulatory/pipeline progress) are supportive, but valuation remains pressured by unprofitability.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth & Commercial Momentum

Axsome’s rapid, repeatable top-line growth driven by AUVELITY and expanding product sales demonstrates scalable commercial execution and accelerating market adoption. Durable revenue expansion improves prospects for funding R&D, supports investment in launch infrastructure, and shortens the path to sustained profitability if trends persist.

Very High Gross Margins

Consistently >90% gross margins indicate substantial pricing power or low incremental manufacturing costs, allowing the company to retain most incremental revenue. As sales scale, high gross margins provide leverage to absorb SG&A and R&D while improving potential for durable operating profitability once fixed commercial costs stabilize.

Meaningful Pipeline & Regulatory Progress

Advancing AXS-12 toward an NDA and submitting a supplemental NDA for AXS-05 represent structural portfolio diversification and regulatory progress. Potential approval could add an orphan indication with exclusivity, reduce reliance on a single product, and materially strengthen long-term revenue stability and competitive positioning in CNS disorders.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

A debt/equity ratio near 3x raises durable financial risk, increasing interest obligations and limiting flexibility to fund R&D or commercial expansion internally. With ongoing operating losses, high leverage heightens refinancing and covenant risk and may necessitate dilutive or costly financing that constrains strategic options over the medium term.

Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow means the company is burning cash to support launches and trials. This structural cash consumption increases dependency on external financing, which can dilute shareholders or raise costs, and may limit the firm's ability to self-fund multiple late-stage programs and commercialization simultaneously.

Persistent Net Losses & Rising SG&A

Ongoing net losses combined with sharply higher SG&A reflect significant commercial investment that has not yet translated into profitability. If selling costs remain elevated relative to revenue growth, sustained losses can erode capital, delay breakeven, and force strategic trade-offs between funding launches and pipeline investment over the coming 2–6 months.

Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment of major depressive disorder and resistant depression disorders; and that is in the Phase III clinical trial to treat Alzheimer's disease agitation, as well as that has completed phase II clinical trial for the treatment of smoking cessation. It is also developing AXS-07, a novel, oral, rapidly absorbed, multi-mechanistic, and investigational medicine that has completed two Phase III trials for the acute treatment of migraine; AXS-12, a selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial to treat narcolepsy; and AXS-14, a novel, oral, and investigational medicine that is in Phase III trial for the treatment of fibromyalgia. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. has a research collaboration agreement with Duke University for evaluating AXS-05 in smoking cessation. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Axsome Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products, particularly after receiving regulatory approvals. The company aims to enhance its revenue streams by advancing its pipeline of drug candidates into later stages of clinical development, leading to potential product launches. Additionally, Axsome may engage in partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for co-development or licensing agreements, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on product sales. The company's financial performance is also influenced by grants and funding from government or private institutions that support its research initiatives.

Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Axsome Therapeutics demonstrates strong revenue growth and gross profit margins, but faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges. High leverage and negative returns on equity highlight financial risks. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash flow management to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Axsome Therapeutics shows strong gross profit margins consistently above 90%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the company is experiencing significant net losses, with a negative net profit margin of -40.89% in the TTM period. Revenue growth is positive, with a notable 13.38% increase in the TTM, but the persistent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.93 in the TTM, suggesting significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing losses. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the high leverage and negative ROE indicate financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate of -16.50% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flow is closely aligned with reported net income, albeit negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	561.26M	385.69M	270.60M	50.04M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	515.60M	352.39M	244.53M	44.84M	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-212.34M	-272.60M	-224.99M	-175.40M	-124.63M	-100.31M
Net Income	-229.53M	-287.22M	-239.24M	-187.13M	-130.40M	-102.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	669.25M	568.50M	588.24M	331.48M	87.79M	186.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	325.27M	315.35M	386.19M	200.84M	86.47M	183.88M
Total Debt	218.60M	192.96M	186.37M	94.68M	49.71M	50.12M
Total Liabilities	595.52M	511.48M	397.26M	221.92M	72.15M	72.34M
Stockholders Equity	73.73M	57.02M	190.98M	109.56M	15.63M	113.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-101.04M	-128.68M	-145.66M	-117.21M	-108.53M	-78.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-100.95M	-128.41M	-145.08M	-116.51M	-108.23M	-78.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-439.00K	-270.00K	-582.00K	-53.70M	-308.00K	-45.89K
Financing Cash Flow	99.32M	57.84M	331.01M	284.58M	11.13M	42.41M

Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 176.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 176.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.61, above the 50-day MA of 150.06, and above the 200-day MA of 121.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.

Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RNA	62 Neutral	$10.91B	-17.35	-32.44%	―	106.27%	-43.90%
CYTK	57 Neutral	$7.64B	-10.25	―	―	2609.26%	-17.08%
AXSM	55 Neutral	$8.54B	-37.84	-275.50%	―	65.83%	28.50%
NUVL	54 Neutral	$7.64B	-18.65	-38.79%	―	―	-52.84%
RYTM	53 Neutral	$6.74B	-33.80	-240.36%	―	54.92%	28.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
LEGN	46 Neutral	$4.36B	-18.15	-22.60%	―	74.91%	31.54%

Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events

Axsome Therapeutics Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Revenue Growth

On January 12, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics reported preliminary, unaudited net product revenue of approximately $196.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $638.5 million for full-year 2025, reflecting robust year-over-year growth of 65% and 66%, respectively, compared with 2024. The gains were driven primarily by AUVELITY, which generated an estimated $155.1 million in fourth-quarter sales and $507.1 million for the year, while SUNOSI contributed about $36.7 million for the quarter and $124.8 million for the year, and newly launched SYMBRAVO, introduced commercially in June 2025, added $4.1 million in fourth-quarter sales and $6.6 million for the year. These figures underscore Axsome’s accelerating commercial momentum in CNS therapies and highlight AUVELITY’s role as the company’s key revenue engine, while the early contribution from SYMBRAVO suggests expanding product breadth, although final results remain subject to completion of standard financial closing procedures and could differ from the preliminary estimates.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $217.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Advances AXS-12 Toward NDA Filing for Narcolepsy

On December 31, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had provided formal pre-New Drug Application meeting minutes supporting the company’s planned NDA submission for AXS-12 (reboxetine) for the treatment of cataplexy in narcolepsy, confirming that its regulatory data package should be sufficient to file. Axsome said it remained on track to complete the AXS-12 NDA submission in January 2026, a key step in potentially adding a differentiated orphan drug to its CNS portfolio, which could strengthen its competitive position in the narcolepsy market and, if ultimately approved, secure seven years of U.S. marketing exclusivity and relief from FDA user fees, with meaningful implications for future revenue and cost structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Reports 63% Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

On November 3, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics reported a significant 63% year-over-year growth in net product revenue for the third quarter of 2025, totaling $171 million. The company also submitted a supplemental NDA for AXS-05 for Alzheimer’s disease agitation, highlighting its strong commercial performance and pipeline progress. The financial results reflect robust sales of AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and the newly launched SYMBRAVO, positioning Axsome for continued growth and innovation in the CNS disorder treatment market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.