Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM)
NASDAQ:AXSM
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Axsome Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AXSM)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$258.00
▲(36.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
AXSM’s score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals (continued losses, cash burn, and high leverage despite strong gross margins and rapid revenue growth). Offsetting this, technicals are strong with clear upward price trends and positive momentum, and the latest earnings call conveyed robust commercial and pipeline progress, though elevated SG&A and gross-to-net pressure remain key near-term risks.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue scale with high gross margins
Sustained, rapid top-line growth combined with very high gross margins indicates durable product economics. High gross margins mean incremental sales flow through to cover fixed costs, enabling operating leverage as AUVELITY and SUNOSI scale and supporting long-term profitability once SG&A and R&D normalize.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn and negative FCF
Negative operating and free cash flow indicate ongoing cash burn driven by commercialization and R&D. Even with improving trends, the company remains reliant on external funding or rapid margin improvement; this structural cash deficit constrains flexibility and risks dilution if growth or approvals slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue scale with high gross margins
Sustained, rapid top-line growth combined with very high gross margins indicates durable product economics. High gross margins mean incremental sales flow through to cover fixed costs, enabling operating leverage as AUVELITY and SUNOSI scale and supporting long-term profitability once SG&A and R&D normalize.
Read all positive factors
Axsome Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Tracks growth patterns across markets and highlights which regions are gaining traction after launches or partnerships. Differences in regional performance can signal opportunities from international approvals and commercialization, or risks from currency swings, pricing pressure, and slow market access.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxsome Therapeutics (AXSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.89B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)667.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth63.88%
EPS Growth35.18%
CountryUS
Employees712
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.73
Shares Outstanding51,459,766
10 Day Avg. Volume715,858
30 Day Avg. Volume667,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)102.90
Price to Sales (P/S)14.23
P/FCF Ratio-96.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-74.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$266.69Price Target Upside41.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$983.80M
Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and advancing innovative treatments for a range of central nervous system (CNS) disorders within the United States. Its robust product pipeline features several prom...
How the Company Makes Money
Axsome primarily makes money by commercializing prescription CNS medicines. Its key revenue streams are (1) net product sales of AUVELITY in the U.S., generated through sales to wholesalers/specialty pharmacies and other customers, with revenue dr...
Axsome Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys strong commercial momentum and multiple material positive milestones: 57% YoY revenue growth, AUVELITY's new FDA approval and upgraded $8B peak-sales outlook, sales-force expansions, meaningful payer wins, and an advancing late-stage pipeline with recent BD adding AXS-20. Offsetting risks include materially higher SG&A, elevated gross-to-net discounts (notably for SYMBRAVO), a modest widening of net loss, a slight decline in cash, and remaining clinical/regulatory uncertainties for several pipeline assets. On balance, the positives (robust revenue growth, regulatory wins, and clear commercial execution) significantly outweigh the near-term financial and access headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Negative Updates
Elevated Gross-to-Net Discounts
AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross-to-net discounts were in the low-to-mid-50% range in Q1 2026; SYMBRAVO gross-to-net discount remained elevated in the high-70% range, pressuring realized revenue and expected to remain elevated near term.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2026 was $191.2M, up 57% year-over-year, driven by growth in AUVELITY and SUNOSI and contributions from SYMBRAVO.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided robust commercial and pipeline guidance backed by many specific metrics: Q1 total revenue for the three marketed products was $191.2M (+57% YoY) driven by AUVELITY net product revenue of $153.2M (+59%), SUNOSI $33.9M (+34%, including $32.6M in net sales and $1.3M royalties) and SYMBRAVO $4.1M; AUVELITY and SUNOSI gross‑to‑net discounts were in the low‑to‑mid‑50s (expected to improve) while SYMBRAVO was in the high‑70s. Financials and runway: cost of revenue $14.7M, R&D $52.7M, SG&A $185M, net loss $64.5M ($1.26/sh) including $23.4M stock‑based comp, and cash of $305M (said to be sufficient to fund operations into cash‑flow positivity). Commercial posture and peak guidance: AUVELITY had >223,000 scripts in the quarter (+35% YoY), ~60,000 unique prescribers (5,500 new in Q1), 78% commercial/100% Medicare‑Medicaid coverage (86% total), an expanded sales force to ~630 reps targeting ~68,000 HCPs and updated peak sales potential of at least $8B (≈$4B per indication); SYMBRAVO had >17,000 scripts (+36% vs Q4), ~57% coverage with a new 17M‑lives contract and a rep force of ~150; SUNOSI had ~54,000 scripts (+16% YoY), >16,500 prescribers and ~83% coverage. Pipeline/regulatory guidance: a pipeline of 6 candidates targeting 10 indications, NDA submitted for AXS‑12 (narcolepsy/cataplexy; ~185,000 U.S. patients), multiple Phase III starts imminent (including solriamfetol ENGAGE topline H2 2026 and a shift‑work trial with topline 2027) and Phase‑III enabling work for AXS‑20 this year.Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 708.24M | 638.50M | 385.69M | 270.60M | 50.04M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 655.82M | 591.02M | 352.39M | 244.53M | 44.84M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -172.72M | -168.08M | -272.60M | -224.99M | -175.40M | -124.63M |
| Net Income | -188.30M | -183.17M | -287.22M | -239.24M | -187.13M | -130.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 713.61M | 689.80M | 568.50M | 588.24M | 331.48M | 87.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 305.11M | 322.93M | 315.35M | 386.19M | 200.84M | 86.47M |
| Total Debt | 219.90M | 241.29M | 192.96M | 186.37M | 94.68M | 49.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 659.02M | 601.51M | 511.48M | 397.26M | 221.92M | 72.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.59M | 88.30M | 57.02M | 190.98M | 109.56M | 15.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.99M | -93.89M | -128.68M | -145.66M | -117.21M | -108.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -70.73M | -93.41M | -128.41M | -145.08M | -116.51M | -108.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -263.00K | -480.00K | -270.00K | -582.00K | -53.70M | -308.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 75.19M | 101.47M | 57.84M | 331.01M | 284.58M | 11.13M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
188.99
Price Trends
218.02
Positive
194.49
Positive
168.12
Positive
Market Momentum
9.82
Negative
67.37
Neutral
74.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 188.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 239.97, below the 50-day MA of 218.02, and above the 200-day MA of 168.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axsome Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $9.75B | -21.57 | -42.78% | ― | ― | -37.66% | |
60 Neutral | $12.89B | -68.11 | -260.01% | ― | 63.88% | 35.18% | |
53 Neutral | $5.19B | -20.62 | -24.91% | ― | 56.70% | -13.77% | |
52 Neutral | $9.80B | -11.71 | 139.66% | ― | 450.60% | -28.90% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $6.64B | -32.46 | -203.25% | ― | 58.67% | -11.45% | |
45 Neutral | $216.56M | -3.35 | -29.67% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
250.50
148.85
146.43%
CYTK
Cytokinetics
78.78
46.14
141.36%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
96.79
34.66
55.79%
LEGN
Legend Biotech
27.93
-5.92
-17.49%
RNA
Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.
12.66
-2.09
-14.17%
NUVL
Nuvalent
123.43
47.45
62.45%
Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Axsome Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
At Axsome Therapeutics’ 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 5, 2026, shareholders voted on the election of two Class II directors, the ratification of the company’s independent auditor, and a non-binding advisory resolutio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Axsome adopts new executive severance and control plan
Neutral
Jun 9, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics’ board-level Compensation Committee approved an Executive Severance and Change in Control Plan that standardizes severance protections for key executives and vice presidents. The plan replaces prior sever...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Axsome secures long-term U.S. exclusivity for SUNOSI
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced it had resolved all patent litigation surrounding its wake-promoting therapy SUNOSI (solriamfetol), which had stemmed from Abbreviated New Drug Applications filed by would-be generic competitors in th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Axsome Highlights Strong Q1 Growth and AUVELITY Expansion
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics reported first quarter 2026 net product revenue of $191.2 million, up 57% year over year, driven primarily by AUVELITY sales of $153.2 million and supported by growth in SUNOSI and SYMBRAVO. Despite higher RD an...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Axsome Wins FDA Nod for Alzheimer’s Agitation Drug
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Axsome announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved AUVELITY for the treatment of agitation associated with dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease, making it a first-in-class therapy for this highly prevalent...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axsome acquires global rights to Takeda’s balipodect
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced an asset purchase agreement to acquire exclusive global rights from Takeda to balipodect (TAK-063), a novel, oral, potent and selective phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitor. The company plans to develop t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.