Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.30B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 595.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 72.16%
• EPS Growth: 9.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 712
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 49,236,366
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 453,427
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 595,502
• PEG Ratio: -5.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 98.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -44.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.57
• 1Y Price Target: $178.36
• Price Target Upside: 64.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $107.00 ▼(-1.05%Downside)

Axsome Therapeutics' overall stock score reflects its strong revenue growth and strategic financial maneuvers, like the loan agreement with Blackstone. However, ongoing challenges with profitability, cash flow, and regulatory hurdles limit the score, highlighting the risks typical in the biotech sector.

Positive Factors

Market Access

Payer coverage for AUVELITY across all channels is about 78% of all covered lives as most recently reported by Axsome management.

Product Pipeline

The company has three FDA-approved products and three NDA-stage products and four products currently in Phase III clinical trials, with a potential for seven new drug launches through 2027.

Revenue Potential

Management expressed confidence in Auvelity MDD $1 billion peak sales guidance floor, already annualizing about $400 million, and a confluence of factors could drive revenues to $3 billion peak ceiling.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

Total Auvelity prescriptions for 1Q25 reached ~167K, representing ~5% Q/Q growth, compared to a sequential decline in the overall antidepressant market of ~2%.

Prescription Growth

Auvelity prescription growth was flat, with weekly TRx/NRx growth of 0%/-1%.

Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and delivering novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Based in New York, the company aims to address unmet medical needs through its innovative drug candidates. Axsome's core products include therapies targeting conditions such as major depressive disorder, migraine, and narcolepsy, leveraging its expertise in CNS pharmacology and drug delivery technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

Axsome Therapeutics makes money primarily through the development, commercialization, and potential sales of its proprietary drug candidates targeting CNS disorders. The company's revenue model includes multiple streams: upfront and milestone payments from licensing agreements, potential royalties from partnered products, and eventual sales of FDA-approved drugs. Revenue can also be generated from strategic collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may provide Axsome with funding to support its research and development activities. The success of Axsome's revenue model is highly dependent on the clinical progress and regulatory approval of its drug candidates.

Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Axsome Therapeutics has shown robust revenue growth, a positive trend for a biotech firm. However, significant challenges persist due to ongoing net losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial health is strained by its reliance on external funding and persistent cash flow issues, common in research-intensive sectors.

Income Statement

Axsome Therapeutics has shown significant revenue growth over the past few years, highlighted by a substantial increase from $50M in 2022 to $432M TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative EBIT and net income margins due to high operating expenses and R&D costs typical in biotech. The gross profit margin remains healthy, reflecting strong product margins. Despite revenue growth, the consistent net losses detract from the overall income statement strength.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high level of liabilities compared to equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage. Stockholders' equity has been declining, which is concerning. Although cash reserves are substantial, the low equity ratio and negative equity in previous years suggest financial instability. The biotech industry's typical high leverage risk and reliance on external funding are evident here.

Cash Flow

Axsome Therapeutics faces challenges with cash flows, as evidenced by negative operating and free cash flows, compounded by substantial R&D investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, indicating persistent cash flow issues. While financing activities have supplemented cash reserves, the company remains heavily reliant on external financing to sustain operations, highlighting cash flow risk.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
432.16M	385.69M	270.60M	50.04M	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
395.36M	352.39M	244.53M	44.84M	-1.16M	-77.72K
	EBIT
-270.27M	-280.56M	-231.82M	-176.50M	-124.71M	-99.14M
	EBITDA
-266.13M	-272.60M	-224.99M	-174.23M	-123.55M	-99.06M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-278.27M	-287.22M	-239.24M	-197.77M	-134.94M	-105.39M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
331.44M	315.35M	386.19M	200.84M	86.47M	183.88M
	Total Assets
545.73M	568.50M	588.24M	331.48M	-338.36M	186.13M
	Total Debt
189.43M	192.96M	186.37M	94.68M	49.71M	50.12M
	Net Debt
-142.01M	-122.40M	-199.82M	-106.16M	-36.76M	-133.75M
	Total Liabilities
401.69M	511.48M	397.26M	221.92M	70.84M	72.34M
	Stockholders Equity
144.04M	57.02M	190.98M	109.56M	-409.20M	-278.80M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-118.25M	-128.68M	-145.66M	-117.21M	-108.53M	-78.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
-118.32M	-128.41M	-145.08M	-116.51M	-108.23M	-78.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-510.00K	-270.00K	-582.00K	-53.70M	-307.55K	-45.89K
	Financing Cash Flow
88.30M	57.84M	331.01M	284.58M	11.13M	42.41M

Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 108.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.81, above the 50-day MA of 107.48, and above the 200-day MA of 101.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.

Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRYS	71 Outperform	$3.78B	31.80	13.90%	―	247.53%	118.34%
VRNA	68 Neutral	$7.22B	―	-72.73%	―	―	-157.53%
SRPT	55 Neutral	$3.82B	19.61	-23.61%	―	59.15%	-1881.09%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.25B	3.24	-45.38%	2.81%	16.79%	-0.06%
BPMC	50 Neutral	$8.24B	―	-47.71%	―	99.19%	48.43%
AXSM	49 Neutral	$5.30B	―	-282.16%	―	72.16%	9.65%
CYTK	36 Underperform	$3.82B	―	435.49%	―	412.21%	1.75%

Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events

Axsome Therapeutics Settles Patent Litigation on SUNOSI

On May 27, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced a settlement agreement with Hetero Labs Ltd. to resolve patent litigation regarding Axsome’s product SUNOSI (solriamfetol). The agreement allows Hetero to sell a generic version of SUNOSI in the U.S. starting in 2040, contingent on FDA approval and other conditions. This settlement is subject to review by U.S. regulatory authorities, and similar litigation with other parties remains pending.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Secures $570M Loan with Blackstone

On May 8, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics entered into a $570 million loan agreement with Blackstone, replacing its previous loan with Hercules Capital. This agreement, which includes a term loan and revolving credit facility, is expected to reduce interest expenses and support Axsome’s growth and profitability goals. The company also completed a private placement of common stock with Blackstone, raising approximately $15 million. These financial moves aim to enhance Axsome’s operational and financial agility, supporting its mission to improve patient outcomes in CNS disorders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.