Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 611.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 69.83%
• EPS Growth: 22.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 712
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 49,901,485
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 582,146
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 611,646
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -22.60
• 1Y Price Target: $169.71
• Price Target Upside: 39.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $116.00 ▼(-4.35% Downside)

Axsome Therapeutics shows strong revenue growth and positive technical indicators, but faces significant profitability challenges and valuation concerns. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, yet corporate events present mixed implications for future performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Analyst projects a significant increase in Auvelity's net product sales for the second quarter.

Market Performance

Auvelity continues to ramp nicely and respond to the increased sales force.

Product Rollout

SYMBRAVO's rollout is progressing with a field force of about 100 representatives and has secured a contract with one of the three largest group purchasing organizations for potential formulary coverage.

Negative Factors

Growth Expectations

Symbravo, AXSM's new migraine drug, is expected to have slow but steady and sustained growth.

Payer Coverage

Payer coverage for SYMBRAVO is currently at approximately 38% of all lives covered, indicating room for improvement.

Prescription Trends

Auvelity prescriptions experienced a slight decline for the third consecutive week, with a 1% decrease in total and new prescriptions.

Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company's primary areas of interest include depression, pain, and addiction, with a robust pipeline of candidates aimed at addressing significant unmet medical needs. Axsome's lead product, AXS-05, is a multimodal investigational drug for the treatment of major depressive disorder and other indications, while AXS-07 is designed for the acute treatment of migraine. Through its innovative approach to drug development, Axsome aims to improve the quality of life for patients with complex CNS conditions.

How the Company Makes Money

Axsome Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company has received regulatory approvals for its lead product, AXS-05, which contributes to its revenue through sales in the market. Additionally, Axsome may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Research grants and government funding for clinical trials may also serve as supplementary revenue sources. As the company advances its pipeline and achieves regulatory milestones, it aims to enhance its revenue streams through the introduction of additional products to the market.

Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Axsome Therapeutics shows strong revenue growth but faces significant profitability and leverage challenges, with negative margins and high debt levels. Cash flow management shows slight improvement but remains an area of concern.

Income Statement

Axsome Therapeutics shows strong revenue growth with a 14.55% increase in TTM, indicating positive momentum. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net profit and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is high at 91.48%, suggesting efficient cost management, but the company needs to improve its bottom line to enhance financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.95, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risks. The negative return on equity (-357.58%) highlights profitability issues. Despite these challenges, the equity ratio stands at 11.42%, showing some level of asset backing, but overall financial stability needs improvement.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a slight improvement in free cash flow growth at 1.91%, but the company still faces negative operating cash flow, indicating cash management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting that cash flow is closely aligned with reported earnings, but the negative operating cash flow coverage ratio (-0.35) is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	495.03M	385.69M	270.60M	50.04M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	452.85M	352.39M	244.53M	44.84M	-1.16M	-77.72K
EBITDA	-224.80M	-272.60M	-224.99M	-174.23M	-123.55M	-99.06M
Net Income	-246.90M	-287.22M	-239.24M	-197.77M	-134.94M	-105.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	639.78M	568.50M	588.24M	331.48M	-338.36M	186.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	303.02M	315.35M	386.19M	200.84M	86.47M	183.88M
Total Debt	215.29M	192.96M	186.37M	94.68M	49.71M	50.12M
Total Liabilities	566.71M	511.48M	397.26M	221.92M	70.84M	72.34M
Stockholders Equity	73.08M	57.02M	190.98M	109.56M	-409.20M	-278.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-120.51M	-128.68M	-145.66M	-117.21M	-108.53M	-78.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-120.63M	-128.41M	-145.08M	-116.51M	-108.23M	-78.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-471.00K	-270.00K	-582.00K	-53.70M	-307.55K	-45.89K
Financing Cash Flow	108.46M	57.84M	331.01M	284.58M	11.13M	42.41M

Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 121.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 121.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.82, above the 50-day MA of 108.12, and above the 200-day MA of 106.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.

Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRYS	75 Outperform	$4.27B	30.05	15.61%	―	116.09%	35.29%
VRNA	68 Neutral	$9.11B	―	-36.38%	―	―	34.29%
AXSM	58 Neutral	$6.05B	―	-280.68%	―	69.83%	22.16%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.26	-41.41%	2.22%	22.87%	-2.01%
BPMC	50 Neutral		―		―	99.19%	48.43%
SRPT	49 Neutral	$1.78B	19.61	-4.76%	―	64.89%	-221.56%
CYTK	47 Neutral	$4.23B	―	435.49%	―	2635.74%	4.66%

Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events

Axsome Therapeutics Receives Paragraph IV Certification Notice

On August 19, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics received a Paragraph IV Certification Notice from Apotex, indicating that Apotex has filed an ANDA with the FDA to produce a generic version of Axsome’s Symbravo®. Axsome plans to respond to this notice, which could impact its market position and stakeholder interests.

Axsome Therapeutics Reports Strong Q2 2025 Performance

On August 4, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics reported a significant financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, with a 72% year-over-year increase in net product revenue, reaching $150 million. The company highlighted the successful launch of SYMBRAVO for migraines and the strong sales growth of AUVELITY and SUNOSI. Axsome is progressing with regulatory submissions for AXS-05 and AXS-12, aiming to expand its product pipeline addressing serious psychiatric and neurological conditions. The company also reported a reduced net loss compared to the previous year, indicating improved financial health.

Axsome Therapeutics Launches SYMBRAVO for Migraine Relief

On June 10, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced the commercial availability of SYMBRAVO®, a novel treatment for acute migraine with or without aura in adults. SYMBRAVO offers a multi-mechanistic approach, providing rapid and sustained pain relief, and is supported by comprehensive patient services. This launch addresses a significant unmet need in migraine treatment, potentially benefiting millions of individuals dissatisfied with existing options.

Axsome Therapeutics Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 6, Axsome Therapeutics presented four proposals, all of which were approved by the shareholders. These included the election of a Class I director, approval of the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and a non-binding advisory vote on executive compensation. The approval of these proposals reflects strong shareholder support and positions the company for continued strategic growth and governance stability.

FDA Refuses Axsome’s NDA for Fibromyalgia Drug

On June 9, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics announced that the FDA issued a Refusal to File letter for its NDA for AXS-14, a drug intended for fibromyalgia management. The FDA found one of the trials inadequate due to its design, prompting Axsome to plan an additional trial in late 2025 to meet FDA requirements, reflecting the company’s commitment to addressing unmet needs in fibromyalgia treatment.