Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.51B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 597.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 65.83%
• EPS Growth: 28.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 712
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 51,153,290
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 645,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 597,742
• PEG Ratio: 1.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 102.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -97.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 13.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -49.87
• 1Y Price Target: $221.87
• Price Target Upside: 35.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $987.95M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(7.89% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and higher leverage), despite improving revenue and margins. Offsetting this is a strong earnings-call outlook with accelerating commercial performance and multiple near-term regulatory/pipeline catalysts. Technicals are mixed with supportive longer-term trend but softer near-term momentum, while valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth and commercial momentum

Sustained high single-digit/low double-digit product growth and rapid Auvelity adoption indicate a durable commercial engine. Large prescription counts and expanding prescriber base signal persistent demand, enabling scaling of sales/marketing and providing a structural revenue base to fund pipeline advancement and margin improvement.

Exceptionally high gross margins / product economics

Very high gross margins reflect favorable product economics and low incremental cost of goods, which create durable operating leverage as sales scale. These margins provide structural capacity to absorb commercialization and R&D spend and materially improve the path to sustained profitability if net realization pressures are managed.

Deep pipeline with near‑term regulatory catalysts

Multiple upcoming regulatory events and Phase III initiations offer several durable value drivers and diversification of revenue opportunities. Priority review and potential label expansions can materially expand addressable markets, lengthen exclusivity benefits, and reduce reliance on any single product for long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and rising debt ratio

A materially higher debt-to-equity ratio reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate risk. Continued losses or missed commercial/pipeline milestones would likely force additional borrowing or dilutive equity, constraining capital allocation for R&D and commercialization over the medium term.

Persistent negative free cash flow / cash burn

Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow imply reliance on external financing until sustainable profitability is achieved. Even with management's cash runway view, any slowdown in sales or delay in catalysts could necessitate new financing, increasing dilution or leverage and heightening execution risk over the next 2–6 months.

Rising SG&A and growing gross‑to‑net pressures

Rapid SG&A expansion to support salesforce and DTC materially raises the break‑even revenue requirement. Concurrently escalating gross‑to‑net deductions (especially early Cymbravo discounts) compress net realizations, making margin durability and the timeline to profitability contingent on outsized revenue scaling and sustained payer access.

Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment of major depressive disorder and resistant depression disorders; and that is in the Phase III clinical trial to treat Alzheimer's disease agitation, as well as that has completed phase II clinical trial for the treatment of smoking cessation. It is also developing AXS-07, a novel, oral, rapidly absorbed, multi-mechanistic, and investigational medicine that has completed two Phase III trials for the acute treatment of migraine; AXS-12, a selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial to treat narcolepsy; and AXS-14, a novel, oral, and investigational medicine that is in Phase III trial for the treatment of fibromyalgia. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. has a research collaboration agreement with Duke University for evaluating AXS-05 in smoking cessation. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Axsome Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products, particularly after receiving regulatory approvals. The company aims to enhance its revenue streams by advancing its pipeline of drug candidates into later stages of clinical development, leading to potential product launches. Additionally, Axsome may engage in partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for co-development or licensing agreements, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on product sales. The company's financial performance is also influenced by grants and funding from government or private institutions that support its research initiatives.

Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue acceleration and very high gross margins, with narrowing losses. However, the company remains materially unprofitable with persistent negative free cash flow, and leverage is elevated with a modest equity base—raising funding and execution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has accelerated meaningfully (2025 revenue up ~13.8% vs. ~0.4% in 2024), and gross margins are exceptionally strong (~91–93%), signaling attractive product economics. However, the company remains loss-making: 2025 net loss was ~$183M with a net margin around -28.7% (though improved from -74.5% in 2024), and operating profitability is still negative. Overall: strong top-line momentum and gross profitability, but the path to sustained bottom-line profitability is not yet proven.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key concern. Debt relative to equity has risen (debt-to-equity ~2.44 in 2025 vs. ~0.98 in 2023), driven by higher debt and a comparatively small equity base (~$88M in 2025). While total assets have grown, the combination of ongoing losses and elevated leverage increases financial risk and reduces flexibility if operating performance disappoints.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both negative each year (2025 free cash flow about -$93M). The cash burn is improving versus 2024 (-$129M), but free cash flow growth was still negative in 2025, indicating volatility in the burn trajectory. Continued negative cash flow implies reliance on financing (debt or equity) until profitability improves.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	638.50M	385.69M	270.60M	50.04M	0.00
Gross Profit	591.02M	352.39M	244.53M	44.84M	0.00
EBITDA	-168.08M	-272.60M	-224.99M	-175.40M	-124.63M
Net Income	-183.17M	-287.22M	-239.24M	-187.13M	-130.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	689.80M	568.50M	588.24M	331.48M	87.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	322.93M	315.35M	386.19M	200.84M	86.47M
Total Debt	241.29M	192.96M	186.37M	94.68M	49.71M
Total Liabilities	601.51M	511.48M	397.26M	221.92M	72.15M
Stockholders Equity	88.30M	57.02M	190.98M	109.56M	15.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-93.41M	-128.68M	-145.66M	-117.21M	-108.53M
Operating Cash Flow	-93.41M	-128.41M	-145.08M	-116.51M	-108.23M
Investing Cash Flow	-480.00K	-270.00K	-582.00K	-53.70M	-308.00K
Financing Cash Flow	101.47M	57.84M	331.01M	284.58M	11.13M

Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 164.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 164.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 179.02, below the 50-day MA of 174.15, and above the 200-day MA of 133.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AXSM.

Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RNA	54 Neutral	$11.30B	-14.67	-32.44%	―	106.27%	-43.90%
AXSM	52 Neutral	$8.51B	-45.04	-252.11%	―	65.83%	28.50%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
NUVL	51 Neutral	$7.36B	-17.31	-36.70%	―	―	-52.84%
CYTK	50 Neutral	$7.57B	―	―	―	2609.26%	-17.08%
RYTM	50 Neutral	$6.48B	-30.54	-244.45%	―	54.92%	28.47%
LEGN	50 Neutral	$3.41B	-14.12	-22.60%	―	74.91%	31.54%

Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events

Axsome secures long-term SUNOSI exclusivity through Alkem settlement

On February 17, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced a settlement agreement with Alkem Laboratories resolving patent litigation over SUNOSI, its solriamfetol‑based therapy, stemming from Alkem’s Abbreviated New Drug Application to market a generic in the U.S. Under the deal, Axsome will license Alkem to sell a generic SUNOSI on or after September 1, 2040, if pediatric exclusivity is granted, or March 1, 2040, if it is not, contingent on U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval and customary conditions.

The agreement, which must be reviewed by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice, secures a long runway of market exclusivity for SUNOSI while formalizing the eventual entry of an authorized generic competitor. Similar SUNOSI‑related patent litigation with another party remains pending in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey, leaving additional intellectual property questions outstanding for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $219.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Therapeutics Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Revenue Growth

On January 12, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics reported preliminary, unaudited net product revenue of approximately $196.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $638.5 million for full-year 2025, reflecting robust year-over-year growth of 65% and 66%, respectively, compared with 2024. The gains were driven primarily by AUVELITY, which generated an estimated $155.1 million in fourth-quarter sales and $507.1 million for the year, while SUNOSI contributed about $36.7 million for the quarter and $124.8 million for the year, and newly launched SYMBRAVO, introduced commercially in June 2025, added $4.1 million in fourth-quarter sales and $6.6 million for the year. These figures underscore Axsome’s accelerating commercial momentum in CNS therapies and highlight AUVELITY’s role as the company’s key revenue engine, while the early contribution from SYMBRAVO suggests expanding product breadth, although final results remain subject to completion of standard financial closing procedures and could differ from the preliminary estimates.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $217.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.

Axsome Advances AXS-12 Toward NDA Filing for Narcolepsy

On December 31, 2025, Axsome Therapeutics reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had provided formal pre-New Drug Application meeting minutes supporting the company’s planned NDA submission for AXS-12 (reboxetine) for the treatment of cataplexy in narcolepsy, confirming that its regulatory data package should be sufficient to file. Axsome said it remained on track to complete the AXS-12 NDA submission in January 2026, a key step in potentially adding a differentiated orphan drug to its CNS portfolio, which could strengthen its competitive position in the narcolepsy market and, if ultimately approved, secure seven years of U.S. marketing exclusivity and relief from FDA user fees, with meaningful implications for future revenue and cost structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXSM) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axsome Therapeutics stock, see the AXSM Stock Forecast page.