Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM)
NASDAQ:AXSM
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Axsome Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AXSM)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$168.00
▼(-5.68% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage). Offsetting this is a strong earnings-call outlook supported by rapid product revenue growth and multiple near-term regulatory and pipeline milestones, while technicals and valuation are mixed and provide only modest support.
Positive Factors
Commercial momentum (Auvelity)
Auvelity’s rapid adoption and large prescriber base indicate durable commercial traction in MDD. Sustained prescription growth supports predictable revenue scaling, funds ongoing commercialization, and strengthens bargaining power with payers—key for multi-year cash generation and reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Rising leverage materially increases financial risk and reduces flexibility. With debt-to-equity more than doubling, interest and covenant pressure could constrain capital allocation, forcing trade-offs between R&D, commercialization, or tightening liquidity if revenues or approvals underperform expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial momentum (Auvelity)
Auvelity’s rapid adoption and large prescriber base indicate durable commercial traction in MDD. Sustained prescription growth supports predictable revenue scaling, funds ongoing commercialization, and strengthens bargaining power with payers—key for multi-year cash generation and reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)556.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth65.83%
EPS Growth28.50%
CountryUS
Employees712
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.56
Shares Outstanding51,153,290
10 Day Avg. Volume522,662
30 Day Avg. Volume556,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)102.90
Price to Sales (P/S)14.23
P/FCF Ratio-96.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-54.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$226.79Price Target Upside27.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$986.34M
Axsome Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment ...
How the Company Makes Money
Axsome primarily makes money by commercializing prescription CNS medicines. Its key revenue streams are (1) net product sales of AUVELITY in the U.S., generated through sales to wholesalers/specialty pharmacies and other customers, with revenue dr...
Axsome Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Axsome Therapeutics is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Axsome Therapeutics is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxsome Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum and robust pipeline progress: substantial year-over-year revenue growth (+65% Q4, +66% full year), breakout performance of Auvelity (surpassing $500M annual sales in year three), multiple upcoming clinical readouts and regulatory milestones (Auvelity sNDA priority review, imminent AXS-12 NDA, several Phase III starts), and strategic in-licensing (AXS-17). Offsetting factors include expanding gross-to-net discounts (pressuring net realizations), a sizable increase in SG&A to fund commercialization and DTC, modest early Cymbravo sales with high launch discounts, and some clinical enrollment timing delays. Overall, the positives (strong top-line growth, product momentum, regulatory progress and pipeline breadth) materially outweigh the challenges, leading to a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total product revenue of $196,000,000 in Q4 2025, up 65% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $638.5 million, up 66% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Rising Gross-to-Net Pressures
Auvelity and Sunosi gross-to-net discounts were in the high-40% range in 2025 and are expected to increase to the mid-50% range due to typical Q1 dynamics; Cymbravo gross-to-net was in the high-70% range in Q4 and is expected to remain elevated during the launch phase—potentially reducing realized net revenues.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total product revenue of $196,000,000 in Q4 2025, up 65% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $638.5 million, up 66% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and near-term plans highlighted a busy 2026: the Auvelity sNDA for Alzheimer's agitation received priority review with a PDUFA of April 30, 2026 and launch readiness is underway alongside a salesforce expansion to ~600 reps to be completed in Q2; AXS‑05 smoking‑cessation Phase III is expected to start in Q2; AXS‑12 NDA for narcolepsy will be submitted imminently; solriamfetol will begin two parallel pediatric ADHD Phase III trials in H1 2026, a MDD Phase III trial this quarter, ENGAGE binge‑eating top‑line readout in H2 2026 and shift‑work top‑line now expected in 2027; AXS‑14 FORWARD Phase III is initiated and AXS‑17 is in Phase II‑enabling work (safety data in >700 patients). Financially, Q4 product revenue was $196M (+65% YoY) and FY product revenue $638.5M (+66%), Auvelity Q4 sales $155.1M (FY $507.1M, +74%), Sunosi Q4 $36.7M (FY $124.8M), Cymbravo Q4 $4.1M (FY $6.6M); cash was $323M (vs $315M YE‑2024) and is expected to fund operations into cash‑flow positivity; GTN: Auvelity/Sunosi ~high‑40% in 2025 rising to mid‑50% in Q1, Cymbravo high‑70% during launch, and ~70%+ of ADA scripts expected in Medicare Part D.Axsome Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
37
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 638.50M | 385.69M | 270.60M | 50.04M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 591.02M | 352.39M | 244.53M | 44.84M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -168.08M | -272.60M | -224.99M | -175.40M | -124.63M |
| Net Income | -183.17M | -287.22M | -239.24M | -187.13M | -130.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 689.80M | 568.50M | 588.24M | 331.48M | 87.79M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 322.93M | 315.35M | 386.19M | 200.84M | 86.47M |
| Total Debt | 241.29M | 192.96M | 186.37M | 94.68M | 49.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 601.51M | 511.48M | 397.26M | 221.92M | 72.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 88.30M | 57.02M | 190.98M | 109.56M | 15.63M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.89M | -128.68M | -145.66M | -117.21M | -108.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -93.41M | -128.41M | -145.08M | -116.51M | -108.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -480.00K | -270.00K | -582.00K | -53.70M | -308.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 101.47M | 57.84M | 331.01M | 284.58M | 11.13M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
178.11
Price Trends
170.64
Positive
165.34
Positive
141.52
Positive
Market Momentum
2.36
Negative
63.00
Neutral
90.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 178.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.28, above the 50-day MA of 170.64, and above the 200-day MA of 141.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXSM.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axsome Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axsome Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | $8.08B | -17.19 | -42.07% | ― | ― | -52.84% | |
56 Neutral | $3.36B | -32.35 | -29.22% | ― | 74.91% | 31.54% | |
54 Neutral | ― | -3.29 | -32.44% | ― | 106.27% | -43.90% | |
52 Neutral | $5.76B | -35.39 | -179.05% | ― | 54.92% | 28.47% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $8.01B | -9.72 | 172.91% | ― | 2609.26% | -17.08% | |
49 Neutral | $9.11B | -49.60 | -254.14% | ― | 65.83% | 28.50% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
178.11
74.58
72.04%
CYTK
Cytokinetics
65.01
25.20
63.30%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
84.39
24.25
40.32%
LEGN
Legend Biotech
18.16
-13.95
-43.44%
RNA
Atrium Therapeutics, Inc.
12.71
-2.04
-13.83%
NUVL
Nuvalent
102.74
32.74
46.77%
Axsome Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Axsome acquires global rights to Takeda’s balipodect
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced an asset purchase agreement to acquire exclusive global rights from Takeda to balipodect (TAK-063), a novel, oral, potent and selective phosphodiesterase 10A inhibitor. The company plans to develop t...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Axsome secures long-term SUNOSI exclusivity through Alkem settlement
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics announced a settlement agreement with Alkem Laboratories resolving patent litigation over SUNOSI, its solriamfetol‑based therapy, stemming from Alkem’s Abbreviated New Drug Application to marke...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Axsome Therapeutics Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics reported preliminary, unaudited net product revenue of approximately $196.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $638.5 million for full-year 2025, reflecting robust year-over-year growth of 65% and 6...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.