Vaxcyte (PCVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 998.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -5.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 414
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.56
• Shares Outstanding: 130,906,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,091,417
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 998,361
• PEG Ratio: 2.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.37K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.36
• 1Y Price Target: $104.80
• Price Target Upside: 95.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $18.75M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $53.00 ▼(-1.06% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, widening losses, and heavy cash burn), partially offset by a strong low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are moderately constructive with price above key moving averages and neutral momentum, while valuation is constrained by ongoing losses. Corporate events add a small positive tilt through manufacturing readiness, tempered by higher executive severance obligations.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Very low debt and substantial stockholders' equity provide durable financial optionality and reduce refinancing risk. This capital structure supports continued R&D and clinical programs, giving management time to advance vaccines before relying on operational revenue to fund growth.

Long-term manufacturing agreement

A 15-year manufacturing services deal materially de-risks commercial scale-up and supply-chain execution. Durable contract manufacturing access improves manufacturability, shortens time-to-market if trials succeed, and supports predictable production capacity and cost modeling over years.

Focused pneumococcal vaccine pipeline

Concentrated pipeline targeting pneumococcal disease with carrier-sparing conjugate designs addresses a large, structural unmet market. Broader serotype coverage and improved manufacturability can create sustainable competitive advantages and durable revenue potential if clinical and regulatory milestones are achieved.

Negative Factors

No revenue and widening losses

Absence of product revenue and sharply widening net losses force continued dependence on financing and heighten execution risk. Sustained losses erode returns and shareholder equity, making long-term viability contingent on successful clinical outcomes and commercialization rather than operating cash flow.

Large and rising cash burn

Deep negative operating and free cash flow signal heavy ongoing investment and rapid depletion of cash resources. This structural burn rate increases likelihood and frequency of capital raises, constrains strategic flexibility, and shortens runway absent milestone-driven financing or revenue generation.

Reliance on equity financing

Large, repeated equity offerings indicate the company must routinely access capital markets to fund operations. Persistent reliance on dilution undermines long-term shareholder value and reflects weak internal cash generation until products reach market, making outcomes highly binary.

Vaxcyte Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vaxcyte, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology vaccine company, develops novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases. Its lead vaccine candidate is VAX-24, a 24-valent investigational pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials to treat invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia. The company also develops VAX-XP to protect against emerging strains and address antibiotic resistance; VAX-A1, a conjugate vaccine candidate designed to treat Group A Strep; and VAX-PG, a novel protein vaccine candidate targeting keystone pathogen responsible for periodontitis. The company was formerly known as SutroVax, Inc. and changed its name to Vaxcyte, Inc. in May 2020. Vaxcyte, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Carlos, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Vaxcyte makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company's revenue model involves research and development (R&D) investments to advance its vaccine pipeline through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and ultimately, market launch. Key revenue streams include potential product sales, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Vaxcyte may benefit from government grants or funding to support vaccine development. Strategic collaborations with industry partners can also contribute to its earnings by sharing development costs and expanding market reach upon commercialization.

Vaxcyte Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are pressured by no revenue, accelerating net losses (TTM ~-$657M) and rising cash burn (TTM operating cash flow ~-$542M; TTM free cash flow ~-$592M). The key offset is a strong, low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.03) with sizable equity, though equity is trending down and returns remain deeply negative.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and annual results show no revenue and persistently large losses, with net income declining from about -$89M (2020) to -$464M (2024) and -$657M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Operating losses have also widened materially (EBIT about -$90M in 2020 vs. -$570M in 2024 and -$812M TTM), indicating rising spend ahead of commercialization. Strength is consistency of investment in the pipeline, but the core weakness is the absence of revenue and accelerating losses, which keeps profitability and operating leverage highly challenged.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~0.02–0.03; 0.029 in TTM), with total debt of ~$84M against stockholders’ equity of ~$2.89B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, equity has fallen from ~$3.31B (2024) to ~$2.89B (TTM), and returns on equity remain meaningfully negative (about -0.21 TTM), reflecting ongoing losses and dilution/burn risk over time. Overall, the company has substantial capitalization and limited debt burden, but weakening equity and negative returns are notable drawbacks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak and worsening: operating cash flow is deeply negative and has expanded from about -$46.6M (2020) to -$452.6M (2024) and -$542.1M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow is also significantly negative (about -$475.1M in 2024 and -$591.5M TTM). A positive is that free cash flow tracks net losses reasonably closely (free cash flow is roughly in line with net income in recent periods), suggesting limited non-cash distortions, but the primary risk is the large and rising cash burn that increases future funding needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-4.99M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-1.41M
EBITDA	-599.85M	-448.08M	-392.10M	-214.03M	-96.61M	-87.81M
Net Income	-657.20M	-463.93M	-402.27M	-223.49M	-100.08M	-89.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.17B	3.51B	1.41B	1.01B	324.34M	392.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.71B	1.75B	1.08B	931.38M	245.97M	386.20M
Total Debt	84.44M	71.11M	29.22M	17.94M	16.78M	0.00
Total Liabilities	278.72M	205.50M	167.45M	52.56M	40.32M	46.98M
Stockholders Equity	2.89B	3.31B	1.24B	953.61M	284.02M	345.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-591.45M	-475.05M	-364.67M	-176.44M	-127.95M	-47.78M
Operating Cash Flow	-542.15M	-452.63M	-296.79M	-170.60M	-121.39M	-46.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-234.94M	-2.01B	-773.31M	74.58M	-212.31M	-1.10M
Financing Cash Flow	4.51M	2.45B	639.81M	861.55M	17.80M	374.87M

Vaxcyte Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 53.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.98, above the 50-day MA of 47.51, and above the 200-day MA of 38.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PCVX.

Vaxcyte Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRYS	79 Outperform	$8.10B	41.88	19.66%	―	54.51%	275.94%
PTCT	70 Outperform	$6.06B	8.83	―	―	97.54%	―
PCVX	52 Neutral	$7.01B	―	-20.83%	―	―	-5.21%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ZLAB	48 Neutral	$1.88B	-8.52	-28.96%	―	23.73%	30.16%
ACLX	40 Underperform	$3.95B	-17.43	-47.18%	―	-76.96%	-425.41%

Vaxcyte Corporate Events

Vaxcyte Enhances Executive Severance to Align With Market

On December 18, 2025, Vaxcyte amended existing executive change in control and severance agreements for its top executives, following approval by the board’s compensation committee as part of its annual compensation review and planning process. Effective December 31, 2025, the company will increase base salary, bonus and COBRA coverage severance multipliers for CEO Grant Pickering and for President and CFO Andrew Guggenhime, COO Jim Wassil and CTO Harpreet Dhaliwal, both for standard qualifying terminations and for change-in-control-related terminations, in order to bring executive severance levels more in line with market peers and potentially strengthen leadership retention and alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (PCVX) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vaxcyte stock, see the PCVX Stock Forecast page.