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Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX)
NASDAQ:PCVX
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Vaxcyte (PCVX) AI Stock Analysis

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Vaxcyte

(NASDAQ:PCVX)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
Vaxcyte's stock score reflects its position as a development-stage biotech firm with no revenue, high R&D expenses, and reliance on financing. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while valuation metrics show challenges due to negative earnings. However, the company's robust pipeline and recent positive clinical results provide optimism for the future. The earnings call and corporate events signal potential for growth, but regulatory and financial challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Clinical Development
The company's clinical trials are on track.
Financial Stability
The company reported approximately $3.0B in cash, cash equivalents, and investments.
Regulatory Support
The FDA/CBER expressed strong support for vaccinations during an FDA town hall meeting.
Negative Factors
Clinical Trial Setbacks
The VAX-24 infant study missed post-dose 3 primary serotype conversion rate non-inferiority criteria on 4 of 24 serotypes relative to Prevnar 20.
Reduced Price Target
Following PCVX’s disappointing Ph2 VAX-24 infant data, the price target is reduced from $153 to $65.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Anti-vaccine news flow and regulatory uncertainty out of HHS/FDA, including this week's appointment of Dr. Vinay Prasad as head of CBER, continue to put pressure on shares.

Vaxcyte (PCVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vaxcyte Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative vaccines for the prevention of infectious diseases. Operating within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, Vaxcyte's core product offerings include conjugate and protein-based vaccines designed to address significant unmet medical needs. The company's lead vaccine candidates aim to provide comprehensive protection against pneumococcal infections and other bacterial pathogens.
How the Company Makes MoneyVaxcyte makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine candidates. The company's revenue model involves research and development (R&D) investments to advance its vaccine pipeline through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and ultimately, market launch. Key revenue streams include potential product sales, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, Vaxcyte may benefit from government grants or funding to support vaccine development. Strategic collaborations with industry partners can also contribute to its earnings by sharing development costs and expanding market reach upon commercialization.

Vaxcyte Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 22.90%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Vaxcyte's strong financial position, significant clinical and manufacturing progress, and proactive regulatory engagement. However, challenges include increased expenses, potential regulatory uncertainties, and the need to meet non-inferiority criteria in clinical studies. Vaxcyte remains optimistic about its pipeline and future growth.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Position
Vaxcyte ended 2024 with $3.13 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, bolstered by $2.2 billion from successful equity offerings.
VAX-31 Clinical Success
VAX-31 showed strong Phase 1/2 results in adults, leading to its advancement to Phase 3, with Breakthrough Therapy Designation granted by the FDA.
Manufacturing Expansion
Vaxcyte is building a dedicated manufacturing suite with Lonza, on track for completion by early next year, supporting future global supply.
Progress in Early-Stage Vaccine Candidates
Vaxcyte continues to advance vaccine candidates against AMR threats, including VAX-A1 for Group A Strep.
Regulatory Engagement
Vaxcyte established a public affairs function, enhancing engagement with policymakers to support vaccine innovation.
Negative Updates
Increased Expenses
R&D and G&A expenses increased in 2024 due to development, manufacturing, and personnel costs, with further increases expected in 2025.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Potential changes in vaccine policies under the new administration could impact future vaccine schedules and recommendations.
Challenges in Achieving Non-Inferiority
Concerns about meeting non-inferiority criteria in upcoming Phase 2 and 3 studies, especially given historical precedents of serotype misses.
Company Guidance
During the Vaxcyte fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, key guidance was provided on the company's financial and operational outlook. As of December 31, 2024, Vaxcyte reported a strong financial position with $3.13 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. The company anticipates significant increases in R&D and G&A expenses in 2025, primarily driven by manufacturing investments for the VAX-31 adult Phase 3 clinical program and the growth in personnel. Vaxcyte's dedicated manufacturing suite at Lonza is on track to be completed by early 2025, with $127.8 million in additional capital expenditures in 2024, bringing the total project cost to $214.3 million. Operationally, the company is advancing its PCV franchise, with the VAX-31 adult Phase 3 pivotal study expected to initiate by mid-2025 and top-line data anticipated in 2026. Additionally, Vaxcyte is progressing its VAX-24 and VAX-31 infant programs, with the first key dataset for VAX-31 expected by mid-2026. These efforts are supported by a robust pipeline aimed at addressing bacterial threats and antimicrobial resistance, ensuring Vaxcyte is well-prepared for sustainable growth and future vaccine launches.

Vaxcyte Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vaxcyte is in a typical financial position for a biotech firm at its stage: no revenue, significant R&D investment, and reliance on financing to maintain liquidity. The strong equity base and cash reserves provide a buffer against short-term challenges, but the company needs to transition to revenue generation to improve its financial health in the long term.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Vaxcyte has consistently reported no revenue, which is typical for early-stage biotechnology companies focusing on product development. The company has a negative EBIT and EBITDA, indicating ongoing operational losses. The net income has been negative over the years, reflecting substantial R&D and operating expenses without offsetting revenue. However, this is a standard profile for a biotech firm in the development phase.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows strong liquidity, with cash and short-term investments significantly exceeding total debt, resulting in a negative net debt. The stockholders' equity is robust, and the equity ratio is high, indicating financial stability. However, the lack of revenue generation and increasing liabilities over time are potential concerns if the trend continues without revenue.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Operating cash flow is negative, reflecting the company's pre-revenue stage and heavy investment in R&D. Free cash flow is also negative, though financing activities have been strong, suggesting continued investor confidence. The company has maintained its cash position through financing, offsetting the negative cash flow from operations.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit0.00-75.00M-9.20M-1.80M-1.41M
EBITDA-448.08M-464.88M-214.29M-98.28M-87.81M
Net Income-463.93M-402.27M-239.64M-100.08M-87.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.51B1.41B1.01B324.34M392.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.75B1.08B931.38M245.97M386.20M
Total Debt71.11M29.22M17.94M16.78M0.00
Total Liabilities205.50M167.45M52.56M40.32M46.98M
Stockholders Equity3.31B1.24B953.61M284.02M345.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-475.05M-364.67M-176.44M-127.95M-47.78M
Operating Cash Flow-452.63M-296.79M-170.60M-121.39M-46.63M
Investing Cash Flow-2.01B-773.31M74.58M-212.31M-1.10M
Financing Cash Flow2.45B639.81M861.55M17.80M374.87M

Vaxcyte Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price35.64
Price Trends
50DMA
33.91
Positive
100DMA
41.95
Negative
200DMA
67.98
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.60
Negative
RSI
53.85
Neutral
STOCH
47.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PCVX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.56, above the 50-day MA of 33.91, and below the 200-day MA of 67.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PCVX.

Vaxcyte Risk Analysis

Vaxcyte disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vaxcyte reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vaxcyte Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$3.99B20.2978.45%62.22%
68
Neutral
$8.93B-72.73%-157.53%
58
Neutral
$6.65B-118.53%-7.65%-11.81%
52
Neutral
$3.84B-32.01%43.59%28.72%
52
Neutral
$7.37B-0.04-63.81%2.59%16.40%<0.01%
50
Neutral
$4.67B-19.66%7.75%
47
Neutral
$4.45B435.49%412.21%1.75%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PCVX
Vaxcyte
35.72
-48.23
-57.45%
CYTK
Cytokinetics
37.70
-19.68
-34.30%
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
41.95
-8.48
-16.82%
ADMA
ADMA Biologics
17.05
3.29
23.91%
VRNA
Verona Pharma
105.01
82.53
367.13%
ZLAB
Zai Lab
37.00
17.61
90.82%

Vaxcyte Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Vaxcyte Appoints Dr. Olivier Brandicourt to Board
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Vaxcyte, Inc. appointed Dr. Olivier Brandicourt to its Board of Directors as a Class III director, effective immediately, with his term ending at the 2026 annual stockholders meeting. Dr. Brandicourt is recognized as an independent director under Nasdaq rules, with no existing arrangements or transactions with the company that require disclosure. As part of his appointment, Dr. Brandicourt will receive an initial equity award valued at $800,000, vesting over 36 months, and an annual equity award valued at $450,000, alongside a $50,000 annual cash retainer, all subject to his continuous service.

Spark’s Take on PCVX Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, PCVX is a Neutral.

Vaxcyte’s stock score reflects its position as a development-stage biotech firm with no revenue, high R&D expenses, and reliance on financing. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while valuation metrics show challenges due to negative earnings. However, the company’s robust pipeline and recent positive clinical results provide optimism for the future. The earnings call and corporate events signal potential for growth, but regulatory and financial challenges remain.

To see Spark’s full report on PCVX stock, click here.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vaxcyte Announces Positive Phase 2 Results for VAX-24
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Vaxcyte announced positive results from its Phase 2 study of VAX-24, a 24-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate for infants, showing it was well-tolerated and elicited strong immune responses. The company plans to advance the VAX-24 Mid dose to a potential Phase 3 program, pending further study results, and has also announced the development of VAX-XL, a third-generation PCV candidate. These developments reinforce Vaxcyte’s commitment to expanding vaccine coverage and addressing the global burden of pneumococcal disease, with significant implications for future clinical programs and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 22, 2025