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Carvana (CVNA)
:CVNA
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Carvana Co
(NYSE:CVNA)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$376.00
▲(7.94%Upside)
Positive Factors
Competitive Advantages
Carvana's investments in infrastructure and the ADESA auction business are proving to be long-term competitive advantages, potentially leading to positive earnings revisions.
Operational Turnaround
Carvana's operational turnaround is considered unprecedented, with a swift recovery from a 99% drawdown.
Stock Recovery
Carvana's stock price is up 80% from April lows, indicating a significant recovery.
Negative Factors
Growth Assumptions
Growth assumptions in the near-term remain less optimistic than Carvana's targets due to potential headwinds from worsening consumer affordability because of tariffs.
Insider Selling
Recent insider selling and short seller arguments are pressuring Carvana's shares.
Market Performance
CVNA shares are due for a pause after materially outperforming peers across consumer, industrial/auto, and internet/e-commerce.
Carvana Co (CVNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$74.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)122.0
Beta (1Y)2.87
Revenue Growth32.23%
EPS Growth-46.86%
CountryUS
Employees17,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength60
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.67
Shares Outstanding135,023,440
10 Day Avg. Volume3,843,246
30 Day Avg. Volume3,575,361
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$338.57Price Target Upside-2.80% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
Carvana Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarvana Co (CVNA) is a leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. Founded in 2012, Carvana is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, and operates in the automotive retail sector. The company offers a seamless online car buying experience, allowing customers to browse, finance, and purchase vehicles through its website and mobile app. Carvana's innovative approach includes vehicle delivery to the customer's location or pick-up at one of its signature car vending machines.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarvana Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of used vehicles. The company purchases vehicles from auctions, trade-ins, and directly from consumers, which are then reconditioned and listed for sale on its platform. Carvana makes money by marking up the price of these vehicles above their acquisition and reconditioning costs. In addition to vehicle sales, Carvana offers financing services, earning interest income from customer loans. The company also generates revenue through ancillary products, such as extended warranties and vehicle service contracts. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and data analytics companies help Carvana optimize its operations and enhance its service offerings, further contributing to its revenue streams.
Carvana Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Retail Units Sold
Tracks the number of vehicles sold directly to consumers, indicating sales performance, market demand, and the company's ability to attract and retain customers.
Tracks the number of vehicles sold directly to consumers, indicating sales performance, market demand, and the company's ability to attract and retain customers.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataCarvana Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 34.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Carvana's Q1 2025 earnings call highlighted significant growth in retail units sold and revenue, achieving record-breaking figures. The company reported strong profitability with a positive net income for the fifth consecutive quarter and an impressive adjusted EBITDA margin. However, there were some challenges, including a decrease in wholesale GPU and an increase in SG&A expenses. Overall, the positive achievements and strong financial performance outweigh the challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Retail Units Sold
Retail units sold totaled 133,898 in Q1, an increase of 46%, setting a new company record.
Revenue Growth
Revenue was $4.232 billion, an increase of 38%, marking a new company record.
Positive Net Income and Strong Profitability
For the fifth consecutive quarter, Carvana earned positive net income and set new records for adjusted EBITDA and GAAP operating income.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Adjusted EBITDA was $488 million in Q1 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%, a 3.8 percentage point increase, well within the long-term financial model range of 8% to 13.5%.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Non-GAAP Wholesale GPU
Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $964, a decrease of $189, primarily driven by faster growth in retail units than wholesale vehicle and marketplace units and higher wholesale vehicle depreciation rates.
Increase in Non-GAAP SG&A Expense
Non-GAAP SG&A expense was $468 million, an increase of 20%.
Company Guidance
During Carvana's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, significant metrics and future guidance were shared. Carvana reported a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%, well within their long-term target range of 8% to 13.5%, despite a seasonally weaker quarter. Retail units sold reached 133,898, marking a 46% year-over-year increase, with revenue climbing 38% to $4.232 billion. The company highlighted continuous improvements in operating efficiencies and customer offerings, contributing to positive net income for the fifth consecutive quarter. Looking ahead, Carvana aims to grow to 3 million annual retail sales with a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin over the next 5 to 10 years, prioritizing growth over margin while maintaining exceptional customer experiences and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company expects sequential increases in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in Q2, reinforcing their focus on significant profitable growth in FY 2025.Carvana Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carvana demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, improved margins, and efficient cash flow management. However, high leverage on the balance sheet remains a concern, requiring careful monitoring. Overall, the financials suggest a positive outlook with opportunities for further profitability enhancements.Income Statement
Carvana's income statement shows notable improvement with a significant increase in gross profit margin and EBIT margin in the TTM period. Revenue growth has been strong, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the net profit margin remains modest, suggesting room for enhanced profitability.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses risks. On the positive side, the company has improved its equity ratio, signifying better financial stability compared to previous periods. Return on equity has also improved, reflecting enhanced profitability.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow statements highlight robust free cash flow growth and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, showcasing efficient cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, supporting financial flexibility and operational efficiency.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.84B | 13.67B | 10.77B | 13.60B | 12.81B | 5.59B |
| Gross Profit | 3.17B | 2.88B | 1.72B | 1.25B | 1.93B | 793.76M |
| EBITDA | 1.45B | 1.36B | 1.16B | -2.15B | -5.00M | -257.16M |
| Net Income | 398.00M | 210.00M | 450.00M | -2.89B | -287.00M | -462.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.88B | 8.48B | 7.07B | 8.70B | 7.01B | 3.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.33B | 2.18B | 896.00M | 434.00M | 403.00M | 300.81M |
| Total Debt | 6.04B | 6.05B | 6.71B | 8.82B | 5.77B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.11B | 7.11B | 7.46B | 9.75B | 6.49B | 2.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.26B | 243.00M | -518.00M | 306.00M | 387.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 949.00M | 827.00M | 716.00M | -1.84B | -3.15B | -968.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 918.00M | 803.00M | -1.32B | -2.59B | -608.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -55.00M | -13.00M | 31.00M | -2.58B | -627.00M | -345.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 583.00M | 261.00M | -868.00M | 3.90B | 3.53B | 1.16B |
Carvana Co Technical Analysis
Positive
348.33
Price Trends
300.48
Positive
256.17
Positive
237.64
Positive
Market Momentum
9.86
Negative
65.22
Neutral
91.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 348.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 324.14, above the 50-day MA of 300.48, and above the 200-day MA of 237.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVNA.
Carvana Co Risk Analysis
Carvana Co disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carvana Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carvana Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $74.59B | 121.95 | 44.39% | ― | 32.23% | -46.86% | |
73 Outperform | $76.35B | 32.83 | -174.09% | ― | 4.90% | 3.28% | |
68 Neutral | $61.65B | 24.94 | -14.95% | ― | 5.15% | 1.99% | |
67 Neutral | $17.68B | 20.93 | 19.19% | 3.23% | 1.99% | -32.18% | |
56 Neutral | $3.37B | 4.05 | -1.30% | 6.64% | 0.16% | -63.79% | |
55 Neutral | $3.09B | 59.62 | -23.77% | 2.04% | -16.55% | -941.57% | |
48 Neutral | $44.27M | ― | -54.32% | ― | -14.49% | -210.54% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CVNA
Carvana Co
348.33
226.01
184.77%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
51.62
-6.27
-10.83%
AZO
AutoZone
3,769.26
932.86
32.89%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
127.41
-1.31
-1.02%
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto
91.33
23.14
33.93%
PRTS
US Auto Parts Network
0.76
-0.38
-33.33%
Carvana Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carvana Co Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting, Elects Directors
Neutral
May 6, 2025
On May 5, 2025, Carvana Co. held its annual meeting of stockholders where several key proposals were voted on. The election of directors resulted in Dan Quayle and Gregory Sullivan being elected as Class II directors for a three-year term. Stockholders approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and decided to hold annual ‘say-on-pay’ votes. An amendment to the company’s certificate of incorporation for officer exculpation was approved, and Grant Thornton LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, a stockholder proposal for simple majority voting was not approved.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.