O'Reilly Auto (ORLY)
NASDAQ:ORLY
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O'Reilly Auto
(NASDAQ:ORLY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$98.00
▲(7.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating profitability and positive cash generation, tempered by meaningful balance-sheet leverage (negative equity and rising debt). The latest earnings call supports a favorable near-term outlook with improving free cash flow guidance and continued growth investment, but technical signals are weak (trading below key moving averages) and valuation is relatively rich at ~31x earnings with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Durable Profitability & Margins
Multi-year gross and operating margins near 50% and ~19–20% indicate durable pricing power, inventory sourcing strength, and operational leverage. Such sustained profitability supports reinvestment, distribution expansion, and resilience through modest demand variability over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet / Negative Equity
Negative shareholders' equity and rising total debt increase financial vulnerability and constrain flexibility for large strategic moves. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk if cash flow weakens, limiting ability to absorb shocks or accelerate M&A without materially changing capital structure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable Profitability & Margins
Multi-year gross and operating margins near 50% and ~19–20% indicate durable pricing power, inventory sourcing strength, and operational leverage. Such sustained profitability supports reinvestment, distribution expansion, and resilience through modest demand variability over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.6
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth6.19%
EPS Growth6.98%
CountryUS
Employees93,419
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding838,487,060
10 Day Avg. Volume6,392,916
30 Day Avg. Volume6,122,250
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.34
Price to Book (P/B)-101.74
Price to Sales (P/S)4.37
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.07Price Target Upside17.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)3.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.94B
O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotiv...
How the Company Makes Money
O'Reilly Auto generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive parts and accessories in its retail stores and through its e-commerce platform. The company's revenue model is driven by both individual retail customers and commercial custo...
O'Reilly Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Same Store Sales Growth
Indicates the sales performance of existing stores over a specific period, highlighting the company's ability to drive growth without relying on new store openings.
Indicates the sales performance of existing stores over a specific period, highlighting the company's ability to drive growth without relying on new store openings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyO'Reilly Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive picture: solid top-line growth (Q4 comps +5.6%, FY sales +6.4% to $17.8B), margin expansion (gross margin +39–49 bps YoY), continued EPS growth (Q4 +13%, FY +10%), aggressive store expansion plans (225–235 new stores) and continued share repurchases and investments in distribution. Headwinds relate to elevated SG&A driven by self-insurance and health-care costs, a one-year dip in free cash flow due to timing and higher CapEx, and modest DIY traffic pressure. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (comps 3%–5%, EPS $3.10–$3.20, gross margin 51.5%–52%) while acknowledging near-term cost volatility. On balance, the positives (strong sales, margin gains, professional segment strength, growth investments) outweigh the negatives, though execution on cost containment and working capital will be key near-term focus areas.Positive Updates
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Q4 comparable store sales +5.6%; full-year 2025 comparable store sales +4.7% (at high end of revised guidance 4%-5%); marks 33rd consecutive year of annual comparable store sales increases.
Negative Updates
Elevated SG&A and Self-Insurance Costs
Q4 SG&A as % of sales 33.0% (down 25 bps YoY vs. Q4 2024) but average per-store SG&A increased 3.3% in Q4; full-year average per-store SG&A +4%, 0.5 point above guidance driven by higher team member health care, workers' compensation, litigation and auto liability reserves; 2026 per-store SG&A expected to grow 3%-4%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Q4 comparable store sales +5.6%; full-year 2025 comparable store sales +4.7% (at high end of revised guidance 4%-5%); marks 33rd consecutive year of annual comparable store sales increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
O’Reilly’s 2026 guidance targets comparable store sales of 3%–5% (weighted to the high end in 1H with tougher comps in 2H), with same‑SKU inflation expected similar to 2025 (~just under 3%, largely in 1H) and average ticket growth as the primary comp driver (professional ticket counts to remain strong; DIY transactions slight negative). Financial guidance: revenues $18.7–$19.0B; gross margin 51.5%–52.0% (midpoint ≈ +16 bps vs 2025); operating profit 19.2%–19.7% (midpoint roughly flat to 2025); EPS $3.10–$3.20 (midpoint +6.1% vs $2.97 in 2025, including ~ $0.04 tax headwind). Cash/portfolio and capital metrics: CapEx $1.3–$1.4B (vs just under $1.2B in 2025); free cash flow $1.8–$2.1B (vs $1.6B in 2025); inventory per store up ~5% in 2026 (ended 2025 at $870k, +9% YoY); AP-to-inventory ~122% target (124% at Q4 ’25); adjusted debt/EBITDAR ~2.03x (below 2.5x target). Other operating plans include 225–235 net new stores, continued distribution investment, and continued share‑repurchase execution (2025: 23M shares repurchased at $92.26 avg for ~$2.1B; cumulative repurchases 1.5B shares for ~$27B).O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.78B | 16.71B | 15.81B | 14.41B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 9.17B | 8.55B | 8.10B | 7.38B | 7.02B |
| EBITDA | 3.99B | 3.73B | 3.62B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Net Income | 2.54B | 2.39B | 2.35B | 2.17B | 2.16B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.54B | 14.89B | 13.87B | 12.63B | 11.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 193.79M | 130.25M | 279.13M | 108.58M | 362.11M |
| Total Debt | 8.49B | 7.92B | 7.84B | 6.55B | 5.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.30B | 16.26B | 15.61B | 13.69B | 11.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -763.35M | -1.37B | -1.74B | -1.06B | -66.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59B | 2.03B | 2.03B | 2.58B | 2.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.76B | 3.05B | 3.03B | 3.15B | 3.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.15B | -1.17B | -995.94M | -739.99M | -615.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.55B | -2.03B | -1.87B | -2.66B | -2.69B |
O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis
Negative
91.42
Price Trends
93.79
Negative
94.73
Negative
96.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.56
Negative
48.76
Neutral
80.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 91.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.19, below the 50-day MA of 93.79, and below the 200-day MA of 96.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORLY.
O'Reilly Auto Risk Analysis
O'Reilly Auto disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. O'Reilly Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
O'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $23.06B | 24.85 | 44.36% | 1.80% | 4.26% | 0.73% | |
67 Neutral | $68.78B | 41.28 | 62.85% | ― | 45.55% | 5776.52% | |
63 Neutral | $14.24B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
62 Neutral | $76.65B | 30.60 | -239.04% | ― | 6.19% | 6.98% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $56.03B | 33.35 | -72.31% | ― | 3.81% | -4.26% | |
50 Neutral | $3.11B | 97.23 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -19.41% | -957.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto
91.42
2.50
2.81%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
51.83
20.13
63.53%
AZO
AutoZone
3,400.54
-77.84
-2.24%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
103.47
-3.33
-3.12%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
43.82
-4.69
-9.67%
CVNA
Carvana Co
313.91
146.04
87.00%
O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
O’Reilly Auto Sets Schedule for Q4 2025 Earnings
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced the timetable for releasing its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, signaling the next key disclosure event for investors following the company’s continued expans...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
O’Reilly Auto’s Executive Chairman Sets Trading Plan
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
On November 24, 2025, Greg Henslee, Executive Chairman of O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., established a trading plan under Rule 10b5-1 for the sale of up to 138,705 shares of the company’s common stock. This plan, set to run from March 5, 2...
Stock Buyback
O’Reilly Auto Expands Share Repurchase Program by $2B
Positive
Nov 18, 2025
On November 18, 2025, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved an increase of $2.0 billion to its share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $29.75 billion. This move, effective for three years, allows...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.