O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $87.90B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 37.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 5.15%
• EPS Growth: 5.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 93,419
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.78
• Shares Outstanding: 848,496,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,814,332
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,487,308
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -48.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.32
• 1Y Price Target: $108.42
• Price Target Upside: 5.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $107.00 ▲(4.25% Upside)

O'Reilly Auto's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance driven by robust revenue growth and effective cash flow generation. However, the high leverage and negative equity present significant risks. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, though the stock may be overvalued based on its P/E ratio. The positive sentiment from the earnings call supports future growth expectations, but macroeconomic challenges remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Management has increased top- and bottom-line guidance, reflecting positive trends and effective pricing strategies.

Market Expansion

ORLY plans to open 200-210 new locations, indicating a commitment to growth and market expansion.

Operational Growth

The opening of the Stafford, VA distribution center is seen as a key opportunity for long-term growth, allowing ORLY to eventually operate a true nationwide network.

Negative Factors

Operational Costs

Elevated SG&A costs continue to exert pressure on the company's financials.

Profit Margins

EBIT margin fell roughly 20 basis points short of consensus due to continued pressures in SG&A.

O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

O'Reilly Auto generates revenue mainly through the sale of automotive parts and accessories to both professional and DIY customers. The company's revenue model relies heavily on retail sales, which include in-store purchases and online orders. Key revenue streams include sales of replacement parts, maintenance items, and accessories, with a significant focus on providing high-quality products to meet the needs of its customer base. O'Reilly also benefits from a strong supply chain, allowing for efficient inventory management and quick replenishment of stock. Additionally, partnerships with various automotive manufacturers and suppliers enhance its product offerings, contributing to its competitive pricing and comprehensive inventory. The company's earnings are further supported by its strategic expansion into new markets and its commitment to customer service, which fosters repeat business and customer loyalty.

O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview

Summary

O'Reilly Auto shows strong revenue and profit growth on the income statement, but high leverage and negative equity on the balance sheet are concerning. Cash flow generation is robust, although recent free cash flow figures have declined. The company should aim to improve its balance sheet by reducing debt levels to mitigate financial risks.

Income Statement

O'Reilly Auto has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory, showing a 20.4% increase from 2022 to 2025. The company maintains strong profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin around 51% and a net profit margin improving to 14.2% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, signaling efficient operations and strong earnings before interest and taxes. Overall, the income statement reflects solid performance, but the margins have shown only moderate expansion.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a negative stockholders' equity, which can be a red flag and indicates high leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but total debt has increased, posing potential financial risks. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting the company's reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet is concerning due to high leverage and negative equity.

Cash Flow

O'Reilly Auto's cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow, consistently above $2.9 billion annually, indicating good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow growth has been negative recently, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 1.2 TTM, suggesting effective conversion of income into cash. Despite the decrease in free cash flow, the company's cash flow position remains solid.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.12B	16.71B	15.81B	14.41B	13.33B	11.60B
Gross Profit	8.80B	8.55B	8.10B	7.38B	7.02B	6.09B
EBITDA	3.67B	3.73B	3.62B	3.31B	3.25B	2.74B
Net Income	2.42B	2.39B	2.35B	2.17B	2.16B	1.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.82B	14.89B	13.87B	12.63B	11.72B	11.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	198.61M	130.25M	279.13M	108.58M	362.11M	465.64M
Total Debt	8.31B	7.92B	7.84B	6.55B	5.87B	6.16B
Total Liabilities	17.05B	16.26B	15.61B	13.69B	11.79B	11.46B
Stockholders Equity	-1.23B	-1.37B	-1.74B	-1.06B	-66.42M	140.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.77B	2.03B	2.03B	2.58B	2.76B	2.37B
Operating Cash Flow	2.91B	3.05B	3.03B	3.15B	3.21B	2.84B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.14B	-1.17B	-995.94M	-739.99M	-615.62M	-614.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.72B	-2.03B	-1.87B	-2.66B	-2.69B	-1.80B

O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 102.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 102.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.46, above the 50-day MA of 93.72, and above the 200-day MA of 88.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORLY.

O'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSCO	79 Outperform	$31.55B	29.28	45.34%	1.51%	2.96%	-2.02%
CVNA	78 Outperform	$74.30B	86.45	49.91%	―	39.48%	-34.00%
AZO	73 Outperform	$66.93B	27.08	-14.95%	―	5.15%	1.99%
GPC	72 Outperform	$18.74B	23.21	17.50%	2.94%	2.65%	-32.91%
ORLY	70 Outperform	$87.90B	37.05	-174.09%	―	5.15%	5.33%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$25.39B	4.88	-2.69%	5.70%	-0.49%	-53.32%
AAP	46 Neutral	$3.54B	59.62	-23.77%	1.69%	-16.55%	-941.57%

O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events

O’Reilly Auto Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release

On July 1, 2025, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced the schedule for its second quarter 2025 earnings release and conference call. The earnings will be released on July 23, 2025, after 3:30 p.m. Central Time, followed by a conference call on July 24, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time. This announcement provides stakeholders with key dates to review the company’s financial performance, reflecting O’Reilly’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORLY) stock is a Hold with a $79.92 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O’Reilly Auto stock, see the ORLY Stock Forecast page.

O’Reilly Auto Approves 15-for-1 Stock Split

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 15, O’Reilly Automotive’s shareholders elected new members to the Board of Directors and accepted the resignation of Larry O’Reilly due to the company’s mandatory retirement age policy. Additionally, the shareholders approved an amendment to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock to facilitate a 15-for-1 stock split, effective with the Secretary of State of Missouri on May 16, 2025. This stock split will provide shareholders with 14 additional shares for each share held, with trading on a post-split basis beginning on June 10, 2025. The meeting also included votes on executive compensation, auditor appointment, and a shareholder proposal, with the latter being rejected.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORLY) stock is a Hold with a $1200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O’Reilly Auto stock, see the ORLY Stock Forecast page.