O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $78.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: 6.19%
• EPS Growth: 6.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 93,419
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 844,104,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,924,090
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,878,632
• PEG Ratio: 3.34
• Price to Book (P/B): -101.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 48.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.58
• 1Y Price Target: $107.07
• Price Target Upside: 12.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $18.94B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $98.00 ▲(2.78% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong operating profitability and positive cash generation, tempered by meaningful balance-sheet leverage (negative equity and rising debt). The latest earnings call supports a favorable near-term outlook with improving free cash flow guidance and continued growth investment, but technical signals are weak (trading below key moving averages) and valuation is relatively rich at ~31x earnings with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Durable Profitability & Margins

Multi-year gross and operating margins near 50% and ~19–20% indicate durable pricing power, inventory sourcing strength, and operational leverage. Such sustained profitability supports reinvestment, distribution expansion, and resilience through modest demand variability over the next 2–6 months.

Consistent Same‑Store Sales Track Record

A 33‑year streak of comp store sales growth demonstrates structural market share gains, effective store-level execution, and sticky customer relationships. Consistent comps underpin predictable revenue from both professional and DIY channels and support long-term network economics as the company adds new stores.

Strong Cash Generation & Capital Returns

Positive FCF across periods and an improved FCF guidance provide durable internal funding for store growth, distribution investment and buybacks. Consistent cash generation supports strategic reinvestment while enabling disciplined capital returns without relying solely on external financing.

Negative Factors

Weak Balance Sheet / Negative Equity

Negative shareholders' equity and rising total debt increase financial vulnerability and constrain flexibility for large strategic moves. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk if cash flow weakens, limiting ability to absorb shocks or accelerate M&A without materially changing capital structure.

Sustained SG&A & Insurance Cost Pressure

Persistent inflation in team‑member health care, workers' comp and casualty reserves creates a structural upward bias to SG&A per store. That cost base volatility can compress operating margin over time and makes near-term margin execution more dependent on sustained top-line strength and cost containment.

Weakened Cash Conversion & FCF Decline

A drop in FCF and lower cash conversion versus net income signals greater working capital needs and higher CapEx for the growth program. Reduced cash cushion limits scope for rapid debt reduction or incremental buybacks, increasing sensitivity to timing of tax credits and other nonrecurring cash items.

O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. Its stores offer auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. The company's stores also provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Its stores offer do-it-yourself and professional service provider customers a selection of products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 5,759 stores in the United States, and 25 stores in Mexico. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

O'Reilly Auto generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive parts and accessories in its retail stores and through its e-commerce platform. The company's revenue model is driven by both individual retail customers and commercial customers, including repair shops and service centers. Key revenue streams include sales of automotive parts, tools, and accessories, as well as ancillary services offered at their locations. O'Reilly benefits from strong supplier relationships and partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, allowing it to maintain a diverse and extensive inventory. Additionally, the company's focus on customer service and loyalty programs contributes to repeat business, enhancing its overall earnings potential.

O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong and steady (TTM gross margin ~52%, net margin ~14%, EBIT margin ~19–20%) with consistent revenue growth, and free cash flow remains solid (~$1.6B TTM). However, the balance sheet is a major risk with negative stockholders’ equity and rising total debt (~$8.5B TTM), and cash flow efficiency has softened (TTM FCF ~58% of net income) alongside a decline in FCF versus 2024.

Income Statement

ORLY shows strong, steady profitability with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin around 52% and net margin around 14%, supported by solid operating profitability (EBIT margin near 19–20%) over multiple years. Revenue has grown consistently from 2020–2024, but the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate decelerated to ~1.8%, pointing to a slower near-term growth trajectory versus prior years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the key weak spot: stockholders’ equity is negative in recent periods (including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), which makes leverage metrics unfavorable and signals an equity deficit. Total debt has also trended higher (about $6.2B in 2020 to ~$8.5B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), increasing financial risk despite a growing asset base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a strength with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow across all periods, and sizable TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow (~$1.6B). However, cash flow efficiency has softened: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is only ~58% of net income (down from ~66–86% in prior years) and free cash flow declined versus 2024, suggesting more pressure from working capital, capital spending, or other cash uses.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.78B	16.71B	15.81B	14.41B	13.33B
Gross Profit	9.17B	8.55B	8.10B	7.38B	7.02B
EBITDA	3.97B	3.73B	3.62B	3.31B	3.25B
Net Income	2.54B	2.39B	2.35B	2.17B	2.16B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.54B	14.89B	13.87B	12.63B	11.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	193.79M	130.25M	279.13M	108.58M	362.11M
Total Debt	10.53B	7.92B	7.84B	6.55B	5.87B
Total Liabilities	17.30B	16.26B	15.61B	13.69B	11.79B
Stockholders Equity	-763.35M	-1.37B	-1.74B	-1.06B	-66.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.59B	2.03B	2.03B	2.58B	2.76B
Operating Cash Flow	2.76B	3.05B	3.03B	3.15B	3.21B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.15B	-1.17B	-995.94M	-739.99M	-615.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.55B	-2.03B	-1.87B	-2.66B	-2.69B

O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 95.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 95.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.95, above the 50-day MA of 94.41, and below the 200-day MA of 96.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ORLY.

O'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSCO	67 Neutral	$27.76B	25.50	45.18%	1.80%	4.26%	0.73%
CVNA	67 Neutral	$78.65B	34.00	59.86%	―	45.55%	5776.52%
AZO	63 Neutral	$62.04B	26.12	―	―	3.81%	-4.26%
GPC	63 Neutral	$16.82B	255.30	1.51%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
ORLY	62 Neutral	$78.29B	31.78	―	―	6.19%	6.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AAP	48 Neutral	$3.36B	77.03	3.11%	2.53%	-19.41%	-957.94%

O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events

O’Reilly Auto Sets Schedule for Q4 2025 Earnings

On January 2, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced the timetable for releasing its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, signaling the next key disclosure event for investors following the company’s continued expansion across North America. The company will publish its earnings after 3:30 p.m. Central Time on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for Thursday, February 5, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time, giving analysts and shareholders an opportunity to assess O’Reilly’s recent performance and strategic progress through a webcast and accompanying discussion.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORLY) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O’Reilly Auto stock, see the ORLY Stock Forecast page.

O’Reilly Auto’s Executive Chairman Sets Trading Plan

On November 24, 2025, Greg Henslee, Executive Chairman of O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., established a trading plan under Rule 10b5-1 for the sale of up to 138,705 shares of the company’s common stock. This plan, set to run from March 5, 2026, to April 27, 2026, aims to facilitate the exercise and sale of stock options due to expire in February 2027, ensuring compliance with securities laws and transparency in trading activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORLY) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O’Reilly Auto stock, see the ORLY Stock Forecast page.

O’Reilly Auto Expands Share Repurchase Program by $2B

On November 18, 2025, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved an increase of $2.0 billion to its share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $29.75 billion. This move, effective for three years, allows the company to make stock repurchases based on market conditions and corporate needs, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORLY) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on O’Reilly Auto stock, see the ORLY Stock Forecast page.