O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
NASDAQ:ORLY
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O'Reilly Auto
(NASDAQ:ORLY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$94.00
▲(0.31% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
ORLY’s score is supported by strong profitability and cash generation plus a constructive earnings update with raised EPS guidance and solid comps. Offsetting this, balance-sheet risk is elevated due to persistently negative equity and rising debt, and the technical setup is weak with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation also looks demanding at ~32x earnings with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
High and Stable Margins
Sustained gross margins around 51–52% and healthy net margins (~14–16%) indicate durable pricing power and category mix advantages in the aftermarket. High margins support cash generation, cushion against input cost volatility, and underpin long‑term reinvestment and returns even if top‑line growth slows.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity and Elevated Leverage
Persistently negative equity and rising absolute debt materially weaken financial flexibility. An aggressive capital structure increases vulnerability to demand or margin shocks, constrains borrowing capacity in stress, and raises refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term despite current profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Stable Margins
Sustained gross margins around 51–52% and healthy net margins (~14–16%) indicate durable pricing power and category mix advantages in the aftermarket. High margins support cash generation, cushion against input cost volatility, and underpin long‑term reinvestment and returns even if top‑line growth slows.
Read all positive factors
O'Reilly Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Same Store Sales Growth
Indicates the sales performance of existing stores over a specific period, highlighting the company's ability to drive growth without relying on new store openings.
Indicates the sales performance of existing stores over a specific period, highlighting the company's ability to drive growth without relying on new store openings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyO'Reilly Auto (ORLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.0
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth7.92%
EPS Growth12.42%
CountryUS
Employees93,419
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.08
Shares Outstanding828,715,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,998,168
30 Day Avg. Volume5,387,210
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.34
Price to Book (P/B)-101.74
Price to Sales (P/S)4.37
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$111.13Price Target Upside18.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)3.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.04B
O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States. The company provides new and remanufactured automotiv...
How the Company Makes Money
O’Reilly primarily makes money by selling automotive aftermarket parts, supplies, and accessories, generating revenue at the point of sale through its retail store network and related distribution operations. Its key revenue streams are (1) DIY re...
O'Reilly Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong operational and financial start to 2026 with robust comps (+8.1%), double-digit total sales growth (+10.2%), meaningful margin and EPS improvement, healthy free cash flow, significant share repurchases, and continued store expansion and private-label adoption. Management tempered enthusiasm with prudent caution around consumer sensitivity to fuel prices, Q1 seasonality (weather and tax refunds), supply-chain/commodity risks (motor oil/freight) and some elevated absolute SG&A and liability-related costs. Overall, the positives (solid growth, margin expansion, cash generation, buybacks, and capacity investments) materially outweigh the outlined risks, which management views as manageable within existing guidance.Positive Updates
Strong Comparable Store Sales
Comparable store sales increased 8.1% in Q1 2026, driven by mid-single-digit average ticket growth and higher transaction counts; professional comps remained double-digit for the third consecutive quarter while DIY delivered mid-single-digit comps.
Negative Updates
Consumer Demand Uncertainty and Fuel Price Risk
Management expressed caution that rapid increases in fuel costs could depress consumer spending and create short-term volatility; sustained high gas prices (historically well above $4/gal) could eventually impact miles driven and demand.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Comparable Store Sales
Comparable store sales increased 8.1% in Q1 2026, driven by mid-single-digit average ticket growth and higher transaction counts; professional comps remained double-digit for the third consecutive quarter while DIY delivered mid-single-digit comps.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
O'Reilly kept full‑year comparable store sales guidance at 3%–5% (Q1 comp +8.1%, which pushed results to the top half of the range) and reiterated total revenue guidance of $18.7–19.0 billion, maintained gross margin guidance of 51.5%–52%, and raised operating profit guidance by 10 basis points to 19.3%–19.8% (midpoint ~9 bps expansion vs. 2025); diluted EPS guidance was increased to $3.15–3.25 (reflecting Q1 performance and share repurchases), free cash flow remains guided to $1.8–2.1 billion, CapEx is expected at $1.3–1.4 billion, and net new store openings are targeted at 225–235 for 2026—Q1 metrics referenced in the outlook included inventory per store of $874k (+8.5% YoY), turns of 1.6x, AP/inventory at 125% (expected ~122% year‑end), adjusted debt/EBITDA of 2.03x, Q1 share repurchases of 10 million shares for $923 million at an average $92.45, Q1 effective tax rate 22.5% (full‑year ~22.6%), and SG&A per store guidance of 3%–4% (Q1 was 5.5%).O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.21B | 17.78B | 16.71B | 15.81B | 14.41B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 9.40B | 9.17B | 8.55B | 8.10B | 7.38B | 7.02B |
| EBITDA | 4.10B | 3.99B | 3.73B | 3.62B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Net Income | 2.60B | 2.54B | 2.39B | 2.35B | 2.17B | 2.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.94B | 16.54B | 14.89B | 13.87B | 12.63B | 11.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 252.63M | 193.79M | 130.25M | 279.13M | 108.58M | 362.11M |
| Total Debt | 8.73B | 8.49B | 7.92B | 7.84B | 6.55B | 5.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.00B | 17.30B | 16.26B | 15.61B | 13.69B | 11.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.07B | -763.35M | -1.37B | -1.74B | -1.06B | -66.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.91B | 1.59B | 2.03B | 2.03B | 2.58B | 2.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.04B | 2.76B | 3.05B | 3.03B | 3.15B | 3.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -1.15B | -1.17B | -995.94M | -739.99M | -615.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.55B | -2.03B | -1.87B | -2.66B | -2.69B |
O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis
Neutral
93.71
Price Trends
92.21
Negative
93.39
Negative
97.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Positive
48.49
Neutral
34.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 93.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.88, above the 50-day MA of 92.21, and below the 200-day MA of 97.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ORLY.
O'Reilly Auto Risk Analysis
O'Reilly Auto disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. O'Reilly Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
O'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $72.41B | 27.70 | 57.15% | ― | 51.72% | 234.92% | |
62 Neutral | $76.03B | 32.03 | -263.22% | ― | 7.92% | 12.42% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $16.64B | 35.89 | 42.57% | 1.80% | 4.64% | 1.15% | |
55 Neutral | $55.46B | 34.26 | -72.31% | ― | 5.02% | -4.34% | |
50 Neutral | $3.05B | 97.23 | 2.00% | 2.53% | -15.94% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $12.82B | 19.30 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto
92.22
0.85
0.93%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
51.24
20.54
66.88%
AZO
AutoZone
3,419.36
-453.24
-11.70%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
94.97
-26.11
-21.57%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
31.69
-17.50
-35.58%
CVNA
Carvana Co
64.91
6.49
11.11%
O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
O’Reilly Auto Affirms Leadership, Governance and Compensation Framework
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 13, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive’s Human Capital and Compensation Committee recommended, and on May 14 the Board approved, a stock option award with a grant date fair value of $2 million for Executive Chairman Greg Henslee, vesting...
Financial Disclosures
O’Reilly Auto Schedules First Quarter 2026 Results Release
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced it would release its first quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, after 3:30 p.m. Central Time. The company said the figures would be made available on its website, ...
Private Placements and Financing
O’Reilly Auto Raises $850 Million in New Notes
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive issued and sold $850 million of 5.100% senior unsecured notes due March 12, 2036, positioning the new debt on equal footing with its existing senior unsecured notes and credit facility while remaining s...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
O’Reilly Auto Announces $850 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities and Wells Fargo Securities for the issuance and sale of $850 million of 5.100% senior notes du...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.