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O'Reilly Auto
(NASDAQ:ORLY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$100.00
▲(14.42% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/17/26
ORLY scores well on operating fundamentals—strong margins and cash flow—and the earnings call was supportive with raised comp and EPS guidance. The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and rising debt) and a valuation that looks premium (P/E ~28.7), while technical signals are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Sustained Profitability
High gross, operating, and net margins indicate a resilient aftermarket model with pricing power and operating discipline. Management is also guiding to 51.5%–52% gross margin and 19.3%–19.8% operating profit, supporting medium-term margin durability.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity and Rising Debt
Persistent negative equity and increasing debt create a structurally weaker financial position and reduce flexibility during demand or margin pressure. The capital structure also makes leverage metrics less informative and heightens refinancing and interest-burden risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Profitability
High gross, operating, and net margins indicate a resilient aftermarket model with pricing power and operating discipline. Management is also guiding to 51.5%–52% gross margin and 19.3%–19.8% operating profit, supporting medium-term margin durability.
Read all positive factors
O'Reilly Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across product and service lines (for example parts, accessories, commercial accounts, and online), revealing which areas drive revenue and where growth or margin opportunities exist.
Breaks down sales across product and service lines (for example parts, accessories, commercial accounts, and online), revealing which areas drive revenue and where growth or margin opportunities exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyO'Reilly Auto (ORLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$72.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.6
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth8.47%
EPS Growth12.39%
CountryUS
Employees93,072
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.17
Shares Outstanding808,960,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,849,253
30 Day Avg. Volume8,492,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.07
Price to Book (P/B)-101.74
Price to Sales (P/S)4.37
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$109.35Price Target Upside25.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)3.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.11B
O'Reilly Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehen...
How the Company Makes Money
O’Reilly makes money primarily by selling automotive aftermarket products through two main customer channels: (1) DIY retail customers who purchase parts and accessories for self-service vehicle maintenance and repair, and (2) professional custome...
O'Reilly Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed multiple strong operational and financial results — notably double-digit professional comps, solid comparable store sales (+6% Q2, +7% YTD), EPS growth, robust free cash flow, aggressive share repurchases, and continued store and DC investment. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds including moderation of same‑SKU inflation in H2, modest DIY transaction pressure, incremental SG&A and fuel cost impacts, and a modest rise in leverage from buybacks. Overall, the company emphasized confidence in execution and long-term market opportunity while prudently guiding for potential back‑half volatility.Positive Updates
Comparable Store Sales and Top-Line Growth
Q2 comparable store sales grew 6%; year-to-date comps up 7%; total sales growth over 9% YTD. Q2 outperformance across months (April strongest) and momentum into early Q3.
Negative Updates
DIY Transaction Count Pressure
DIY transaction counts were down low single digits in Q2 and slightly below expectations, partially due to weaker performance in hot‑weather-related categories in late Q2 (June).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable Store Sales and Top-Line Growth
Q2 comparable store sales grew 6%; year-to-date comps up 7%; total sales growth over 9% YTD. Q2 outperformance across months (April strongest) and momentum into early Q3.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
O'Reilly raised full‑year comparable store sales guidance to 4–6% (from 3–5%) after Q2 comps of +6% and YTD comps of +7% (professional comps ~10% in Q2; pro ticket counts mid‑single digits), noting same‑SKU inflation of 5.5% in Q2 that it expects to moderate to ~1–2% in H2 (Q3 toward the high end, Q4 lower); diluted EPS guidance was lifted to $3.20–$3.30. Management reiterated full‑year gross margin guidance of 51.5–52% (Q2 51.4%, YTD 51.5% — +11 bps YTD; midpoint ~+16 bps vs. 2025) and operating profit guidance of 19.3–19.8%; Q2 SG&A per store rose 4.8% and full‑year SG&A per‑store growth guidance was tightened to 3.5–4% (expect ≤4%), with Q2 deleveraging of ~9 bps but YTD operating margin expansion of 21 bps. Revenue is guided to $18.9–19.2B; free cash flow remains $1.8–2.1B (H1 FCF $1.5B vs $904M LY); capex is $1.3–1.4B (H1 $552M); inventory per store was $892k (+7% YoY, +2% vs YE25; targeting +5% by year‑end); AP-to‑inventory finished Q2 at 124% (target ~122% YE); adjusted debt/EBITDAR was 2.17x (vs 2.03x YE25). Share repurchases YTD totaled 34M shares for $3.1B (Q2: 17M shares at $90.40 for $1.5B), and the company remains on track for 225–235 net new stores in 2026 (110 YTD); management cautioned about weather volatility and the lapping of tariff‑driven price benefits but left H2 expectations intact.O'Reilly Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.57B | 17.78B | 16.71B | 15.81B | 14.41B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 9.59B | 9.17B | 8.55B | 8.10B | 7.38B | 7.02B |
| EBITDA | 4.04B | 3.99B | 3.73B | 3.62B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Net Income | 2.65B | 2.54B | 2.39B | 2.35B | 2.17B | 2.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.39B | 16.54B | 14.89B | 13.87B | 12.63B | 11.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 262.18M | 193.79M | 130.25M | 279.13M | 108.58M | 362.11M |
| Total Debt | 9.59B | 8.49B | 7.92B | 7.84B | 6.55B | 5.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.22B | 17.30B | 16.26B | 15.61B | 13.69B | 11.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.84B | -763.35M | -1.37B | -1.74B | -1.06B | -66.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.59B | 2.03B | 2.03B | 2.58B | 2.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.29B | 2.76B | 3.05B | 3.03B | 3.15B | 3.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -1.15B | -1.17B | -995.94M | -739.99M | -615.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.12B | -1.55B | -2.03B | -1.87B | -2.66B | -2.69B |
O'Reilly Auto Technical Analysis
Positive
87.40
Price Trends
89.01
Positive
90.39
Positive
92.59
Negative
Market Momentum
0.38
Positive
51.62
Neutral
36.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 87.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.10, below the 50-day MA of 89.01, and below the 200-day MA of 92.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORLY.
O'Reilly Auto Risk Analysis
O'Reilly Auto disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. O'Reilly Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
O'Reilly Auto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $76.93B | 24.99 | 46.57% | ― | 53.98% | 159.43% | |
69 Neutral | $72.09B | 28.61 | -232.45% | ― | 8.47% | 12.39% | |
63 Neutral | $18.23B | 18.71 | 39.30% | 3.03% | 3.98% | -5.90% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $48.29B | 20.18 | -80.35% | ― | 5.74% | -1.73% | |
56 Neutral | $18.47B | 521.88 | 0.72% | 3.37% | 5.47% | -95.54% | |
45 Neutral | $2.57B | 31.31 | 3.79% | 1.79% | -1.30% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ORLY
O'Reilly Auto
90.68
-11.79
-11.51%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts
43.63
-14.68
-25.17%
AZO
AutoZone
3,009.44
-1,130.39
-27.31%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
135.69
1.26
0.94%
TSCO
Tractor Supply
35.92
-24.15
-40.21%
CVNA
Carvana Co
72.33
-0.09
-0.13%
O'Reilly Auto Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
O’Reilly Auto Completes $1.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. completed an offering of $1.6 billion in unsecured senior notes, issuing $700 million of 4.800% notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.050% notes due 2031, and $400 million of 5.550% notes due 2037 un...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
O’Reilly Auto Announces Senior Notes Offering for Growth
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 10, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities, Truist Securities, and Wells Fargo Securities for the issuance of $700 million of 4.800% senior notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.050...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
O’Reilly Auto Names New Executive Supply Chain Leader
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. appointed Colin Yankee as Executive Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, effective July 13, 2026, placing him in charge of merchandise, inventory management, distribution operations, and transportation. Ya...
Financial Disclosures
O’Reilly Auto Schedules Release of Q2 2026 Results
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., a major U.S.-listed retailer of automotive aftermarket parts and related products serving both DIY motorists and professional repair shops, reported operating 6,644 stores across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mex...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
O’Reilly Auto Expands Share Repurchase Authorization Program
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a $2.0 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization, lifting the total program size to $31.75 billion for a new three‑year period that begins on t...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
O’Reilly Auto Affirms Leadership, Governance and Compensation Framework
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 13, 2026, O’Reilly Automotive’s Human Capital and Compensation Committee recommended, and on May 14 the Board approved, a stock option award with a grant date fair value of $2 million for Executive Chairman Greg Henslee, vesting...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.