Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
NASDAQ:TSCO
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Tractor Supply
(NASDAQ:TSCO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
â–¼(-26.68% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
The score is anchored by solid operating performance but tempered by higher leverage and weakening recent free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals are the largest near-term drag due to a pronounced downtrend. Valuation is also a headwind given the high P/E, while reaffirmed guidance and positive strategic actions (pet-services expansion and added liquidity) provide support.
Positive Factors
Multi-year revenue growth and solid profitability
Tractor Supply shows consistent multi-year top-line growth with sustainable margins (net margins ~7%, EBITDA mid-teens). This demonstrates a durable retail franchise and operating leverage that supports earnings stability and reinvestment capacity across economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and balance sheet constraints
Leverage north of ~2x (TTM ~2.55x) reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if sales or cash flow weaken. Higher debt limits ability to pursue opportunistic investments and raises sensitivity to interest and operational shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue growth and solid profitability
Tractor Supply shows consistent multi-year top-line growth with sustainable margins (net margins ~7%, EBITDA mid-teens). This demonstrates a durable retail franchise and operating leverage that supports earnings stability and reinvestment capacity across economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Tractor Supply Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTractor Supply (TSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.84B
Dividend Yield1.8%
Average Volume (3M)12.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth4.64%
EPS Growth1.15%
CountryUS
Employees26,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.04
Shares Outstanding524,449,650
10 Day Avg. Volume12,656,499
30 Day Avg. Volume12,784,237
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio25.47
Price to Book (P/B)10.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio36.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.20Price Target Upside2.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.21B
Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of e...
How the Company Makes Money
Tractor Supply primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its network of retail stores and its e-commerce channels, with revenue recognized from product sales across core categories such as livestock and equine supplies (inc...
Tractor Supply Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally constructive operational picture: Tractor Supply showed solid top-line growth, record new-store openings with strong productivity, stable gross margins, robust digital and final-mile momentum, and progress on strategic initiatives (localization, exclusive brands, pet Rx). However, the companion animal category remains a clear headwind (just over a 100 basis point drag in Q1) with softer new-customer acquisition and some SG&A deleverage from investments and accelerated store openings. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized disciplined execution and targeted investments to address pet assortment and fulfillment — overall the positives (store growth, digital, margin stability, strategic progress) outweigh the current pet-related and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Net Sales Growth and Revenue
Net sales increased 3.6% year-over-year to $3.59 billion in Q1 2026, demonstrating top-line growth driven primarily by new store openings.
Negative Updates
Companion Animal (Pet) Pressure
Companion animal was a meaningful headwind in Q1, representing just over a 100 basis point drag on comparable store sales; management described the pet category as pressured, below expectations, with share gains slowed and category running flat to modestly negative for the year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Sales Growth and Revenue
Net sales increased 3.6% year-over-year to $3.59 billion in Q1 2026, demonstrating top-line growth driven primarily by new store openings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tractor Supply reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance, targeting comparable‑store sales growth of 1%–3% for each of the remaining quarters (Q1 comp was +0.5%), after reporting Q1 net sales up 3.6% to $3.59 billion and diluted EPS of $0.31; gross margin was 36.2% (flat year‑over‑year) and SG&A rose 6.1% to $1.07 billion (29.7% of sales, +70 bps), with management expecting gross margin improvement in H2 and greater SG&A deleverage in H1. The company opened a record 40 stores in Q1 with new‑store productivity running 65%–70%, plans to bring its 11th distribution center online (shipping early Q4) with roughly $10 million of incremental expense this year (primarily in H2), and expects stronger EPS in Q2 and Q4 due to prior‑year comps. Management reiterated it is managing tariff and fuel cost pressure conservatively (no refund assumption), noted digital and Final‑Mile momentum (digital double‑digit growth, delivery volume up double digits, ~200 Final‑Mile hubs last year and ~176 more planned this year), and flagged companion‑animal as a headwind (just over a 100‑bp drag in Q1 and expected to be flat to slightly negative through the year).Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.65B | 15.52B | 14.88B | 14.56B | 14.20B | 12.73B |
| Gross Profit | 5.08B | 5.16B | 5.40B | 5.23B | 4.97B | 4.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.87B | 1.78B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.11B | 1.09B | 997.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.66B | 10.93B | 9.81B | 9.19B | 8.49B | 7.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 224.27M | 194.11M | 251.49M | 397.07M | 202.50M | 878.03M |
| Total Debt | 6.41B | 5.94B | 5.42B | 5.04B | 4.27B | 3.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.15B | 8.35B | 7.54B | 7.04B | 6.45B | 5.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.51B | 2.58B | 2.27B | 2.15B | 2.04B | 2.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.50M | 740.49M | 636.79M | 580.15M | 583.61M | 510.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.64B | 1.42B | 1.33B | 1.36B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -688.86M | -778.58M | -643.92M | -653.07M | -1.09B | -627.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -828.19M | -914.06M | -922.50M | -486.39M | -938.78M | -975.11M |
Tractor Supply Technical Analysis
Negative
45.01
Price Trends
34.22
Negative
42.01
Negative
47.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.93
Negative
38.13
Neutral
49.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.58, above the 50-day MA of 34.22, and below the 200-day MA of 47.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.
Tractor Supply Risk Analysis
Tractor Supply disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tractor Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tractor Supply Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $31.98B | 44.14 | 18.73% | 0.39% | 10.16% | 30.86% | |
71 Outperform | $26.75B | 24.05 | 53.29% | 1.37% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
67 Neutral | $15.93B | 13.46 | 40.05% | 5.46% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
62 Neutral | $15.84B | 14.48 | 42.57% | 1.80% | 4.64% | 1.15% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $20.22B | 22.00 | 18.08% | 2.33% | 41.22% | -25.28% | |
50 Neutral | $14.76B | 243.05 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSCO
Tractor Supply
29.75
-21.22
-41.63%
BBY
Best Buy Co
73.10
8.07
12.40%
CASY
Casey's General
850.85
346.47
68.69%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
224.83
54.56
32.04%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
106.12
-8.64
-7.53%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
221.15
63.03
39.86%
Tractor Supply Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tractor Supply Acquires VIP Petcare to Expand Vet Services
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Tractor Supply Company announced it had acquired VIP Petcare, the veterinary services business operating as VIP Petcare and PetVet, from PetIQ, further expanding its pet health capabilities within its rural lifestyle retail footpr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tractor Supply Expands Liquidity with New Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Tractor Supply Company amended and restated its existing credit agreement, entering into a new unsecured senior revolving credit facility of up to $1.30 billion with Wells Fargo as administrative agent, including swingline and let...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tractor Supply Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
Tractor Supply Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2026, where shareholders elected all nominated directors to serve until the next annual meeting, reaffirming the current board’s composition and leadership. Inves...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Tractor Supply Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Tractor Supply Company announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 27,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.