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Tractor Supply
(NASDAQ:TSCO)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
â–²(16.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
TSCO scores as a moderate setup driven primarily by solid profitability and reasonable valuation (mid-teens P/E with a ~3% yield), but constrained by weaker recent cash flow/free cash flow trends and elevated leverage. Technically, near-term momentum is improving, yet the longer-term trend remains below key moving averages and indicators look stretched. The latest earnings call adds caution due to soft comps, margin headwinds, restructuring charges, and increased uncertainty after withdrawing the long-term framework.
Positive Factors
Recurring, needs-based demand
Tractor Supply’s core assortment centers on high-frequency consumables (feed, pet supplies, seasonal replenishment) that drive repeat traffic and stable basket economics. This defensible demand profile supports steady revenue and store-level cash generation across economic cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage increases sensitivity to earnings volatility and interest-rate moves, constraining financial flexibility. With debt-to-equity near 2.5x, the company faces tighter capacity for opportunistic investments or rapid buyback/deleveraging if cash generation weakens, raising medium-term funding risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring, needs-based demand
Tractor Supply’s core assortment centers on high-frequency consumables (feed, pet supplies, seasonal replenishment) that drive repeat traffic and stable basket economics. This defensible demand profile supports steady revenue and store-level cash generation across economic cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Tractor Supply Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTractor Supply (TSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.47B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)11.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth3.98%
EPS Growth-5.90%
CountryUS
Employees54,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding521,040,160
10 Day Avg. Volume11,311,295
30 Day Avg. Volume11,760,870
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio25.45
Price to Book (P/B)10.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio36.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.50Price Target Upside17.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)1.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.95B
Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of e...
How the Company Makes Money
TSCO primarily makes money by selling merchandise through its company-operated retail stores and its e-commerce channels, generating revenue at the point of sale from a broad assortment of consumable, usable, and hardline goods oriented around far...
Tractor Supply Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed picture: underlying demand in needs-based categories, digital growth, and strategic initiatives (pet ecosystem, Final Mile, Project Fusion) are positive and show early traction, but significant near-term headwinds—driven by May's seasonal softness, weaker comps, EPS below expectations, elevated freight and lumpy tariff benefits—have materially impacted results. Management is taking decisive corrective actions (Petsense closures, capital redeployment, adjusted store openings) and emphasized balance sheet strength, but the withdrawal of the long-term framework and notable Q2 charges highlight uncertainty in the near-to-intermediate term.Positive Updates
Net Sales Growth
Net sales increased approximately 2% to $4.5 billion in Q2 2026, driven by new store growth despite lower comparable store sales.
Negative Updates
Comparable Store Sales Decline
Comparable store sales declined approximately 1.5% in Q2 2026, with transaction counts down and pronounced softness in May that materially impacted the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Sales Growth
Net sales increased approximately 2% to $4.5 billion in Q2 2026, driven by new store growth despite lower comparable store sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tractor Supply updated fiscal 2026 guidance calling for net sales growth of about 2.5%–3.5%, comparable store sales of -1% to flat, adjusted operating margin of 8.5%–8.8% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.90–$2.00; management reiterated Q3/Q4 comps should fall within that implied second‑half range, with earnings more heavily weighted to Q4. For context, Q2 results included net sales of ≈$4.5B (+~2%), comp sales -1.5%, reported gross profit $1.68B (+2.6%) and gross margin 37.1% (+11 bps), adjusted gross profit $1.69B (+3.0%) and adjusted gross margin 37.2% (+24 bps), adjusted operating income $548.3M and adjusted diluted EPS $0.81; inventory per store was up ≈6.5% and Q2 included a $5.9M Petsense write‑down, a $65.8M Petsense charge and $9.5M of VIP Petcare acquisition costs. Key operating cadence/assumptions: freight/fuel costs remain elevated, tariff refunds were a Q2 tailwind but are expected to be less in H2, a new 11th distribution center opens early Q4 (DC startup costs ≈20 bps in Q3 and Q4, with ~20 bps gross‑margin benefit beginning in Q4), Final Mile scale accelerating, repurchases expected toward the high end of the $375M–$450M plan, and the company will withdraw its prior long‑term framework and provide an updated plan with Q4 results.Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.75B | 15.52B | 14.88B | 14.56B | 14.20B | 12.73B |
| Gross Profit | 5.11B | 5.16B | 5.40B | 5.23B | 4.97B | 4.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.91B | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.87B | 1.78B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.11B | 1.09B | 997.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.16B | 10.93B | 9.81B | 9.19B | 8.49B | 7.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.59M | 194.11M | 251.49M | 397.07M | 202.50M | 878.03M |
| Total Debt | 6.54B | 5.94B | 5.42B | 5.04B | 4.27B | 3.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.53B | 8.35B | 7.54B | 7.04B | 6.45B | 5.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.27B | 2.15B | 2.04B | 2.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 306.98M | 740.49M | 636.79M | 580.15M | 583.61M | 510.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 1.64B | 1.42B | 1.33B | 1.36B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -825.52M | -778.58M | -643.92M | -653.07M | -1.09B | -627.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -454.52M | -914.06M | -922.50M | -486.39M | -938.78M | -975.11M |
Tractor Supply Technical Analysis
Neutral
31.02
Price Trends
31.75
Positive
33.80
Positive
42.58
Negative
Market Momentum
1.17
Negative
61.05
Neutral
46.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.59, below the 50-day MA of 31.75, and below the 200-day MA of 42.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSCO.
Tractor Supply Risk Analysis
Tractor Supply disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tractor Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tractor Supply Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $28.53B | 26.02 | 53.29% | 1.25% | 1.30% | 1.14% | |
74 Outperform | $30.94B | 42.97 | 18.73% | 0.26% | 10.16% | 30.86% | |
69 Neutral | $18.80B | 15.85 | 40.05% | 4.47% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
63 Neutral | $18.47B | 18.26 | 39.30% | 3.03% | 3.98% | -5.90% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $18.55B | 511.23 | 0.72% | 3.37% | 5.47% | -95.54% | |
51 Neutral | $17.12B | 16.68 | 18.08% | 2.39% | 41.22% | -25.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSCO
Tractor Supply
35.05
-24.70
-41.34%
BBY
Best Buy Co
85.73
17.17
25.03%
CASY
Casey's General
828.38
319.97
62.94%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
179.34
-38.99
-17.86%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
132.92
1.31
0.99%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
235.70
41.23
21.20%
Tractor Supply Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tractor Supply Expands Executive Roles After CTO Resignation
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Tractor Supply’s board approved new equity awards for Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer J. Seth Estep and Executive Vice President and Chief Stores Officer John P. Ordus, reflecting an expansion of t...
Dividends
Tractor Supply Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Tractor Supply Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on September 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tractor Supply Acquires VIP Petcare to Expand Vet Services
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Tractor Supply Company announced it had acquired VIP Petcare, the veterinary services business operating as VIP Petcare and PetVet, from PetIQ, further expanding its pet health capabilities within its rural lifestyle retail footpr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tractor Supply Expands Liquidity with New Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Tractor Supply Company amended and restated its existing credit agreement, entering into a new unsecured senior revolving credit facility of up to $1.30 billion with Wells Fargo as administrative agent, including swingline and let...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tractor Supply Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
Tractor Supply Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2026, where shareholders elected all nominated directors to serve until the next annual meeting, reaffirming the current board’s composition and leadership. Inves...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Tractor Supply Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Tractor Supply Company announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 27,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.