Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $32.60B
• Dividend Yield: 1.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 2.96%
• EPS Growth: -2.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 52,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.81
• Shares Outstanding: 529,951,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,701,109
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,033,800
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.88
• 1Y Price Target: $63.55
• Price Target Upside: 4.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(15.44% Upside)

Tractor Supply's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its high score. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, although caution is advised due to potential overvaluation and overbought signals. The company's strategic initiatives and customer engagement efforts further bolster its position, despite some challenges in discretionary categories.

Positive Factors

Customer Engagement

An uptick in Neighbor’s Club members to 41 million, contributing to 80% of sales, reflects strong customer engagement.

Earnings Performance

TSCO reported better-than-expected EPS for 2Q25, beating both GS and consensus estimates.

Sales Growth Initiatives

TSCO's Final Mile initiative is a key component to its direct sales strategy and digital growth initiative, each of which the company views as $1bn incremental sales opportunities.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin

The company expects gross margin expansion to be at the low end of the range for the second half, reflecting reduced benefits from prior cost savings and slight pressure from tariffs.

Share Buyback

Management reduced its share buyback outlook for the year, reflecting a disciplined capital allocation approach.

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Tractor Supply generates revenue primarily through the sale of products in its retail stores, with key revenue streams including sales of livestock feed, pet supplies, and equipment for farming and gardening. The company also benefits from a growing e-commerce presence, allowing customers to shop online for in-store pickup or home delivery. Additionally, TSCO has established partnerships with various brands and suppliers in the agricultural and pet supply sectors, enhancing its product offerings and driving sales. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and a focus on customer service further contribute to customer retention and increased sales, bolstering the company's overall earnings.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tractor Supply demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue and cash flow growth, solid profitability margins, and effective equity utilization. However, the elevated debt-to-equity ratio could pose financial flexibility risks.

Income Statement

Tractor Supply shows strong revenue growth from $10.6 billion in 2020 to $15.1 billion in TTM 2025, indicating robust expansion. Gross profit margin is stable around 35.6%, and net profit margin is healthy at approximately 7.2% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are consistent, reflecting operational efficiency. Revenue growth is driven by strategic initiatives, positioning the company well within the specialty retail sector.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 2.23 in TTM 2025, suggesting higher leverage. However, return on equity remains strong at 43.7%, indicating efficient use of equity. Equity ratio is moderate at 23.6%, reflecting balanced asset financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability, but high leverage is a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew from $510 million in 2021 to $820 million in TTM 2025, showcasing solid cash generation. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, underlining strong cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating robust cash availability for growth and debt servicing. The cash flow position supports ongoing investments and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.15B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	12.73B	10.62B
Gross Profit	5.39B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	4.48B	3.76B
EBITDA	1.95B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	1.58B	1.21B
Net Income	1.09B	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	997.11M	748.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.56B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	7.77B	7.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.81M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	878.03M	1.34B
Total Debt	5.56B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	3.92B	3.54B
Total Liabilities	8.07B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	5.76B	5.13B
Stockholders Equity	2.49B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	2.00B	1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	820.19M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	510.29M	1.10B
Operating Cash Flow	1.61B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	1.14B	1.39B
Investing Cash Flow	-761.26M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-627.34M	-292.21M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.01B	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-975.11M	155.21M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 60.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.73, above the 50-day MA of 58.27, and above the 200-day MA of 54.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSCO	80 Outperform	$32.60B	30.26	45.34%	1.51%	2.96%	-2.02%
DKS	79 Outperform	$16.76B	14.61	37.37%	2.20%	2.70%	4.58%
AZO	78 Outperform	$69.92B	28.35	-14.95%	―	5.15%	1.99%
CHWY	72 Outperform	$16.28B	45.64	76.24%	―	7.64%	369.79%
BBY	70 Outperform	$15.74B	18.20	30.21%	4.91%	-3.23%	-28.11%
GPC	67 Neutral	$19.65B	23.47	17.50%	2.90%	2.65%	-32.91%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.96B	13.14	-5.29%	3.00%	1.25%	-13.95%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Tractor Supply Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On August 7, 2025, Tractor Supply Company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on September 9, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 25, 2025. This declaration reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and maintaining its strong position in the rural lifestyle retail market.