Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQ:TSCO
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Tractor Supply
(NASDAQ:TSCO)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
â–²(8.82% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and steady cash generation, tempered by higher balance-sheet leverage and uneven free-cash-flow trends. Technicals are neutral-to-modestly positive, while valuation (P/E ~26) limits upside. The latest earnings call supports a constructive medium-term view via guided growth and strategic initiatives, but near-term margin and demand uncertainty remains.
Positive Factors
Margin Sustainability
Tractor Supply’s steady gross margins (~35–36%) and net margins (~7–8%) across 2020–2024 indicate durable pricing power and an efficient product mix. Stable margins underpin reliable cash generation, enable reinvestment in stores and logistics, and provide a buffer against seasonal and cyclical volatility.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt increasing materially to roughly $9.6B reduces financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity. Elevated leverage constrains the company’s ability to absorb demand shocks, fund opportunistic investments, or maintain buybacks/dividends without pressuring credit metrics in a weaker sales environment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Sustainability
Tractor Supply’s steady gross margins (~35–36%) and net margins (~7–8%) across 2020–2024 indicate durable pricing power and an efficient product mix. Stable margins underpin reliable cash generation, enable reinvestment in stores and logistics, and provide a buffer against seasonal and cyclical volatility.
Read all positive factors
Tractor Supply (TSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.69B
Dividend Yield1.8%
Average Volume (3M)5.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.8
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth4.26%
EPS Growth0.73%
CountryUS
Employees26,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding526,006,300
10 Day Avg. Volume5,161,240
30 Day Avg. Volume5,639,459
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio25.47
Price to Book (P/B)10.55
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio36.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.56Price Target Upside25.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)2.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.33B
Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containmen...
How the Company Makes Money
Tractor Supply primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its network of retail stores and its e-commerce channels, with revenue recognized from product sales across core categories such as livestock and equine supplies (inc...
Tractor Supply Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTractor Supply Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Tractor Supply reported steady full‑year growth, expanding gross margin year‑over‑year, continued digital strength, strong customer engagement and meaningful progress on strategic initiatives (direct sales, final mile, Allivet) and store expansion. However, the fourth quarter lagged expectations due to elevated promotions, discretionary big‑ticket and holiday weakness, tariff and delivery cost pressure, and regional storm lapping that created a modest comp headwind. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and emphasized that many Q4 headwinds were transitory while continuing to invest in long‑term growth, leading to a positive outlook overall.Positive Updates
Full-Year Sales and EPS Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales increased 4.3% to $15.5 billion, driven by new store growth and comparable store sales of +1.2%. Full-year diluted EPS was $2.06, reflecting disciplined execution while funding strategic investments.
Negative Updates
Q4 Results Below Expectations and Promotional Headwinds
Management acknowledged Q4 came in below expectations driven in part by an elevated promotional environment (notably Black Friday/Cyber Week). Q4 gross margin declined ~10 basis points year-over-year and promotions were the single largest variance to expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Sales and EPS Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales increased 4.3% to $15.5 billion, driven by new store growth and comparable store sales of +1.2%. Full-year diluted EPS was $2.06, reflecting disciplined execution while funding strategic investments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tractor Supply guided 2026 total sales growth of 4%–6% with comparable-store sales of 1%–3%, operating margin of 9.3%–9.6% (anchored to the midpoint) and diluted EPS of $2.13–$2.23; they expect gross margin expansion (back‑half weighted), modest SG&A deleverage, an effective tax rate of ~22% and interest expense roughly consistent with 2025. Capital plans include net capital spending of $675M–$725M, opening ~100 new stores (≈50% fee development), a $10M incremental cost for the new Idaho DC, share repurchases of $375M–$450M (~1%–1.5% of shares outstanding), and continued investments in digital and growth initiatives — including adding >150 final‑mile hubs (to ~375 hubs covering >50% of stores and enabling last‑mile reach to >1,200 stores/15M customers) and doubling the direct‑sales force (targeting ~$50M in direct‑sales revenue).Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.52B | 14.88B | 14.56B | 14.20B | 12.73B |
| Gross Profit | 5.16B | 5.40B | 5.23B | 4.97B | 4.48B |
| EBITDA | 1.96B | 1.91B | 1.87B | 1.78B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.11B | 1.09B | 997.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.93B | 9.81B | 9.19B | 8.49B | 7.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 194.11M | 251.49M | 397.07M | 202.50M | 878.03M |
| Total Debt | 5.94B | 5.42B | 5.04B | 4.27B | 3.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.35B | 7.54B | 7.04B | 6.45B | 5.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.58B | 2.27B | 2.15B | 2.04B | 2.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 740.49M | 636.79M | 580.15M | 583.61M | 510.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.42B | 1.33B | 1.36B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -778.58M | -643.92M | -653.07M | -1.09B | -627.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -914.06M | -922.50M | -486.39M | -938.78M | -975.11M |
Tractor Supply Technical Analysis
Negative
45.03
Price Trends
49.61
Negative
50.94
Negative
53.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.35
Negative
41.75
Neutral
64.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.67, below the 50-day MA of 49.61, and below the 200-day MA of 53.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.
Tractor Supply Risk Analysis
Tractor Supply disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tractor Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tractor Supply Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $27.28B | 43.17 | 17.55% | 0.39% | 13.33% | 13.33% | |
67 Neutral | $23.69B | 24.85 | 44.36% | 1.80% | 4.26% | 0.73% | |
67 Neutral | $22.51B | 23.88 | 51.45% | 1.37% | 5.10% | 7.59% | |
64 Neutral | $18.92B | 35.01 | 19.45% | 2.33% | 10.86% | -11.63% | |
63 Neutral | $14.96B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $13.04B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | -0.95% | -48.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSCO
Tractor Supply
45.03
-6.25
-12.19%
BBY
Best Buy Co
62.37
3.91
6.68%
CASY
Casey's General
738.17
279.33
60.88%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
212.46
31.86
17.64%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
107.51
-4.99
-4.44%
WSM
Williams-Sonoma
189.13
46.09
32.22%
Tractor Supply Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends
Tractor Supply Boosts Dividend and Board Oversight Strategy
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Tractor Supply Company’s board appointed former Gap Inc. chief executive Sonia Syngal as an independent director, expanding the board to 10 members and adding deep experience in global supply chains, brand management an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.