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Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQ:TSCO

Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Tractor Supply

(NASDAQ:TSCO)

Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▲(10.23%Upside)
Tractor Supply's stock score is influenced primarily by its robust financial performance and resilient earnings call highlights, despite facing macroeconomic challenges and high leverage. Technical indicators show neutral momentum, while valuation indicates moderate attractiveness. Corporate events like dividend increases support shareholder value but are less impactful on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Market Position
Tractor Supply Company is a best-in-class, well positioned retailer in terms of market served, competitive advantages and long-term earnings potential.
Promotional Success
Chick Day events are successfully driving traffic from both core and new customers, contributing to increased market share in feed categories.
Negative Factors
Consumer Demand
The uncertainty of tariffs and the potential for weaker consumer demand make the required acceleration in TSCO SSS growth seem risky.
Market Uncertainty
Shares could remain range bound while uncertainty persists given more attractive opportunities in other hardlines stocks.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyTractor Supply Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail stores and online platform. The company's key revenue streams include the sales of livestock and pet products, hardware, tools, and truck and towing products, along with seasonal items for lawn and garden care. Additionally, Tractor Supply offers services such as pet wash stations and equipment rental, which contribute to its earnings. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with well-known brands and suppliers, ensuring a steady supply of diverse products to meet the needs of its customer base. Through its loyalty programs and marketing efforts, Tractor Supply enhances customer engagement and drives repeat sales, further bolstering its revenue.

Tractor Supply Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.
Chart InsightsTractor Supply's new store sales as a percentage of total sales saw a significant drop in early 2024, aligning with broader challenges highlighted in their earnings call, such as macroeconomic uncertainties and weather-related impacts. Despite record sales, comparable store sales declined, and pressures on big-ticket items were noted. The company remains focused on maintaining market share and managing costs, but the lowered earnings expectations and tariff-related uncertainties suggest a cautious outlook moving forward.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Tractor Supply Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with record sales and strong customer metrics contrasted by challenges such as a decline in comparable store sales, delayed spring impact, and pressures on big ticket items. The company remains resilient and focused on managing through tariff-related uncertainties and maintaining customer engagement. However, lowered earnings expectations and macroeconomic uncertainties create a cautious outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Sales Achieved
Total sales reached a record $3.47 billion, marking an increase of 2.1% despite the softer than expected start to the year.
Strong Customer Metrics
Robust transaction growth of 2.1%, strong unit growth in consumable categories, positive new customer counts, and record retention of existing customers.
Increased Dividend and Share Repurchase
Tractor Supply increased its dividend by 4.5%, marking the sixteenth consecutive year of growth, and increased share repurchase authorization by an incremental $1 billion.
Resilience in Core Categories
Strong performance in core categories such as consumables and heating fuels, with heating fuel up over 20%.
Successful Chick Days Event
Chick Days event on pace to deliver record-breaking results with strong engagement from core and new customers.
Negative Updates
Decline in Comparable Store Sales
Comparable store sales declined 0.9% due to a decline in average ticket of 2.9%.
Impact of Delayed Spring
Spring categories in the South were down about 30%, with a delay in spring weather causing a headwind of about 250 basis points.
Pressure on Big Ticket Items
Big ticket categories like riding lawn mowers and outdoor power equipment faced pressure, with riding lawn mowers down about 25%.
Tariff-Related Uncertainties
The macroeconomic environment has become more uncertain, with tariff costs expected to create pressure on the cost base.
Lowered Earnings Expectations
Diluted earnings per share was 34¢, below expectations, and net income decreased 9.5% to $179.4 million.
Company Guidance
During the Tractor Supply Company's first-quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided updated guidance reflecting the macroeconomic uncertainty and weather-related challenges impacting their performance. Despite a record $3.47 billion in total sales, comparable store sales declined by 0.9%, with diluted earnings per share at 34¢. The company has revised its fiscal year outlook, anticipating net sales growth of 4% and comparable store sales ranging from flat to up 4%. Operating margin is expected between 9.5% and 9.9%, with net income projected between $1.07 and $1.17 billion, translating to earnings per share of $2 to $2.18. For the second quarter, Tractor Supply forecasts net sales growth of 3% to 4% and comparable store sales between flat and up 1%, with earnings per diluted share of 79¢ to 81¢. The guidance incorporates the impact of tariffs, evolving consumer sentiment, and extended cold weather affecting spring sales. The company emphasized their strategic focus on maintaining market share, managing costs, and leveraging their resilient business model amid these challenges.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tractor Supply demonstrates robust financial performance with steady revenue growth and strong profitability margins. Despite high leverage, the company maintains a solid return on equity and effective cash flow management. Key risks include the high debt levels and slight decline in net profit margins.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Tractor Supply has shown consistent revenue growth over recent years, with a TTM revenue of $14.96 billion, slightly up from $14.88 billion the previous year. Gross profit margin stands at approximately 34.8% for TTM, indicating strong profitability. However, the net profit margin for TTM has slightly decreased to 7.2% compared to prior periods, which could be an area of concern. Nevertheless, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 9.7% and 12.8% respectively.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 2.57 in TTM, which indicates significant leverage. However, the equity ratio of around 21.6% suggests a reasonable level of financial stability. Return on equity for TTM is strong at 48.4%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.28, showing strong cash conversion. Free cash flow has decreased slightly over the periods, but still represents a positive cash flow to net income ratio of 0.57 for TTM. This indicates effective cash management despite slight declines in free cash flow growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.96B14.88B14.56B14.20B12.73B10.62B
Gross Profit5.21B5.40B5.23B4.97B4.48B3.76B
EBITDA1.92B1.91B1.87B1.78B1.58B1.21B
Net Income1.08B1.10B1.11B1.09B997.11M748.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.39B9.81B9.19B8.49B7.77B7.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments231.72M251.49M397.07M202.50M878.03M1.34B
Total Debt5.76B5.42B5.04B4.27B3.92B3.54B
Total Liabilities8.15B7.54B7.04B6.45B5.76B5.13B
Stockholders Equity2.24B2.27B2.15B2.04B2.00B1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow612.07M636.79M580.15M583.61M510.29M1.10B
Operating Cash Flow1.38B1.42B1.33B1.36B1.14B1.39B
Investing Cash Flow-752.72M-643.92M-653.07M-1.09B-627.34M-292.21M
Financing Cash Flow-659.85M-922.50M-486.39M-938.78M-975.11M155.21M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price51.71
Price Trends
50DMA
50.75
Positive
100DMA
52.26
Negative
200DMA
53.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.51
Negative
RSI
51.48
Neutral
STOCH
47.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.22, above the 50-day MA of 50.75, and below the 200-day MA of 53.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Risk Analysis

Tractor Supply disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tractor Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DKDKS
78
Outperform
$16.24B14.4940.22%2.39%3.33%15.47%
77
Outperform
$17.78B47.9776.24%7.64%369.79%
BBBBY
71
Outperform
$14.42B16.6730.21%5.57%-3.23%-28.11%
70
Neutral
$27.42B25.7249.62%1.78%2.07%-2.13%
GPGPC
69
Neutral
$16.72B19.7919.19%3.42%1.99%-32.18%
AZAZO
68
Neutral
$60.38B24.43-14.95%5.15%1.99%
62
Neutral
$16.72B10.85-7.48%3.11%1.66%-24.52%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSCO
Tractor Supply
51.71
-0.95
-1.80%
AZO
AutoZone
3,609.49
776.70
27.42%
BBY
Best Buy Co
68.22
-10.32
-13.14%
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods
202.82
4.94
2.50%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
120.48
-9.18
-7.08%
CHWY
Chewy
42.83
17.39
68.36%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tractor Supply Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Tractor Supply Company held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all nominated directors were elected to serve until the next annual meeting. Stockholders also ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 27, 2025, approved executive compensation on a non-binding basis, and supported an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation to allow for officer exculpation under Delaware law.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Tractor Supply Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Tractor Supply Company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on June 10, 2025, to stockholders of record as of May 28, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering value to its shareholders and reinforces its position as a leading player in the rural lifestyle retail sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025