Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Tractor Supply

(NASDAQ:TSCO)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$58.00

▲(13.33% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and steady cash generation, tempered by higher balance-sheet leverage and uneven free-cash-flow trends. Technicals are neutral-to-modestly positive, while valuation (P/E ~26) limits upside. The latest earnings call supports a constructive medium-term view via guided growth and strategic initiatives, but near-term margin and demand uncertainty remains.

Positive Factors

Resilient profitability

Tractor Supply has maintained consistent gross and net margins over multiple years, reflecting durable pricing power and operating leverage in specialty retail. Stable margins support reinvestment, dividend growth and buffer earnings through normal retail cycles, underpinning long‑run cash generation.

Consistent cash generation

Operating cash flow in the ~$1.1B–$1.6B range and positive free cash flow each year provide a durable funding base for capex, dividends and buybacks. Combined with the 17th consecutive dividend increase, this signals sustainable cash conversion supporting shareholder returns and strategic investment.

Omnichannel & growth initiatives

Expanding final‑mile hubs, scaling direct‑sales and Allivet prescription revenue, plus enterprise AI for forecasting, materially improve distribution reach, recurring revenue mix and inventory efficiency. These structural moves deepen customer access and lower long‑term supply chain costs.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

A jump in total debt to roughly $9.6B increases interest and refinancing risk and reduces balance sheet flexibility. Higher leverage constrains the company's ability to absorb demand shocks, fund opportunistic investments, or sustain buybacks/dividends if cash flows weaken.

Volatile free cash flow

Material year‑to‑year swings in free cash flow (notably a 22% decline in 2025) create uncertainty in funding recurring payouts and growth projects. Persistent volatility complicates capital allocation and raises the risk that cash returns or investments could be curtailed during weaker retail periods.

Cost and margin pressures

Rising SG&A and structural cost pressures from tariffs, higher transportation and promotional intensity erode operating leverage. If logistics inflation and promotional competition persist, they can compress margins and limit the firm's ability to fund store expansion and digital investments without further margin recovery.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$28.04B

Dividend Yield1.8%

Average Volume (3M)7.01M

Price to Earnings (P/E)25.9

Beta (1Y)0.63

Revenue Growth4.26%

EPS Growth0.73%

CountryUS

Employees52,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.43

Shares Outstanding526,351,260

10 Day Avg. Volume4,759,726

30 Day Avg. Volume7,006,143

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio25.47

Price to Book (P/B)10.55

Price to Sales (P/S)1.75

P/FCF Ratio36.78

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.13

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.41

Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.88

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$57.59

Price Target Upside12.52% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering20

EPS Forecast (FY)2.18

Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.34B

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes MoneyTractor Supply generates revenue primarily through the sale of products in its retail stores and online platform. Key revenue streams include agricultural supplies, animal feed, lawn and garden products, and tools and hardware. The company's extensive product assortment and focus on rural lifestyle products cater to a niche market, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge. Additionally, TSCO benefits from its private label brands, which typically offer higher margins compared to name-brand products. The company also leverages its e-commerce platform, which has seen significant growth, especially during periods of increased online shopping. Partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enhance its product offerings and inventory management, contributing to overall sales growth.

Tractor Supply Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales

New Store Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Indicates the contribution of newly opened stores to overall sales, highlighting growth from expansion and the effectiveness of new locations in driving revenue.

Chart InsightsTractor Supply's new store sales as a percentage of total sales experienced a significant decline in early 2024, following a period of strong growth in 2023. This drop coincides with challenges highlighted in the earnings call, such as weak discretionary spending and weather impacts. However, the recent uptick in 2025 suggests a recovery, supported by the company's strategic plan to open more stores and improve customer engagement. The company's confidence in its growth strategy and new store economics is evident in its plans to expand store openings in 2026.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Tractor Supply Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Tractor Supply reported steady full‑year growth, expanding gross margin year‑over‑year, continued digital strength, strong customer engagement and meaningful progress on strategic initiatives (direct sales, final mile, Allivet) and store expansion. However, the fourth quarter lagged expectations due to elevated promotions, discretionary big‑ticket and holiday weakness, tariff and delivery cost pressure, and regional storm lapping that created a modest comp headwind. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and emphasized that many Q4 headwinds were transitory while continuing to invest in long‑term growth, leading to a positive outlook overall.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Full-Year Sales and EPS Growth

Fiscal 2025 net sales increased 4.3% to $15.5 billion, driven by new store growth and comparable store sales of +1.2%. Full-year diluted EPS was $2.06, reflecting disciplined execution while funding strategic investments.

Fourth Quarter Sales and Digital Strength

Q4 net sales grew 3.3% to $3.9 billion with comparable store sales up 0.3%. Diluted EPS for the quarter was $0.43. Digital sales delivered high single-digit growth, contributing meaningfully to omnichannel performance.

Customer Engagement and Loyalty

Identified customer counts increased ~2%; Neighbor's Club represented more than 80% of sales. Customer service scores reached all-time highs and high‑value customer retention remained strong.

Store Expansion and Supply Chain Productivity

Opened 99 Tractor Supply stores in 2025 with robust early new-store productivity. Nearly 60% of stores are in the Project Fusion format and 160 stores were localized. Distribution centers achieved mid-single-digit productivity improvements; first bulk DC opened and an 11th DC was started.

Progress on Strategic Initiatives (Direct Sales, Final Mile, Allivet)

Direct sales: ~50 specialists covering 375 stores with December monthly sales >$2M and a stated ~ $50M sales target for 2026 as the program doubles its sales force. Final Mile: expanded to 210 delivery centers (~25% store coverage) in 2025 with plans for ~375 hubs (>50% coverage) in 2026. Allivet (pet & animal prescriptions) delivered approximately $100 million in sales for the year.

Positive 2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation

Company guided to 2026 total sales growth of 4%–6% and comp sales growth of 1%–3%, diluted EPS of $2.13–$2.23, operating margin of 9.3%–9.6%, net capital spending of $675M–$725M, ~100 new stores, and $375M–$450M of share repurchases.

Margin Improvement Over the Year and Tech/AI Adoption

Full-year gross margin expanded ~16 basis points year-over-year. The company expanded enterprise AI usage (including OpenAI) to improve forecasting, inventory flow and team productivity and expects continued gross-margin tailwinds from exclusive brands, retail media and supply chain efficiencies.

Negative Updates

Q4 Results Below Expectations and Promotional Headwinds

Management acknowledged Q4 came in below expectations driven in part by an elevated promotional environment (notably Black Friday/Cyber Week). Q4 gross margin declined ~10 basis points year-over-year and promotions were the single largest variance to expectations.

Big-Ticket and Holiday Category Weakness

Big-ticket categories (excluding emergency response) and emergency-response-related big-ticket items declined high single digits in Q4. Seasonal holiday categories—holiday decor, toys, dog treats/snacks and power tools—underperformed, contributing to a decline in units per transaction.

Regional Headwinds from Storm Lapping

The company is lapping a strong hurricane recovery from 2024; 2025 was historically quiet for hurricanes, which management estimates created roughly a 100 basis point headwind to comps, most pronounced in the South Atlantic where two regions declined mid-single digits.

Expense and Operating Income Pressure

SG&A (including D&A) increased ~70 basis points to 27.5% of sales and rose ~6% year-over-year (nearly two-thirds of that driven by new stores and the Allivet acquisition). As a result, operating income declined ~6.5% year-over-year.

Tariffs, Delivery Costs and Inventory Build

Tariffs and higher delivery-related transportation costs pressured margins. Average inventory per store rose ~5% (about one-third attributable to tariffs). Management expects some tariff-related AUR impact to persist while working to offset with cost actions.

Quarterly Volatility and Near-Term Uncertainty

Management emphasized a wide range of potential demand outcomes for 2026, noted tougher Q1 comparisons and seasonal volatility (weather-driven weeks), and described 2025 as "not the year we had planned," signaling near-term uncertainty despite long-term confidence.

Company Guidance

Tractor Supply guided 2026 total sales growth of 4%–6% with comparable-store sales of 1%–3%, operating margin of 9.3%–9.6% (anchored to the midpoint) and diluted EPS of $2.13–$2.23; they expect gross margin expansion (back‑half weighted), modest SG&A deleverage, an effective tax rate of ~22% and interest expense roughly consistent with 2025. Capital plans include net capital spending of $675M–$725M, opening ~100 new stores (≈50% fee development), a $10M incremental cost for the new Idaho DC, share repurchases of $375M–$450M (~1%–1.5% of shares outstanding), and continued investments in digital and growth initiatives — including adding >150 final‑mile hubs (to ~375 hubs covering >50% of stores and enabling last‑mile reach to >1,200 stores/15M customers) and doubling the direct‑sales force (targeting ~$50M in direct‑sales revenue).

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong, steady earnings model with resilient margins (gross margin ~35–36%, net margin ~7–8% over 2020–2024) and consistent profitability. Offsetting this, leverage has increased materially (total debt rising to ~$9.6B in 2025; debt-to-equity elevated), and free cash flow is positive but choppy with a notable decline in 2025 (FCF growth -22.25%).

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue expanded steadily from ~$10.6B (2020) to ~$14.9B (2024), showing durable top-line momentum, though growth normalized to low-single-digits in 2023–2024 after the post-2020 surge. Profitability is consistently solid for specialty retail with stable operating leverage: gross margin held around ~35–36% (2020–2024) and net margin stayed ~7–8%. 2025 annual data shows margins recorded as 0.0 in the dataset (likely missing/invalid), but absolute earnings remained strong with net income still around ~$1.10B, implying continued profitability despite slower growth.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is more levered over time: total debt rose from ~$3.5B (2020) to ~$5.4B (2024), and then jumped to ~$9.6B in 2025, which increases financial risk and reduces flexibility. Equity increased modestly over the period (~$1.9B to ~$2.6B), but leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.84x in 2020 rising to ~2.39x in 2024). Returns to shareholders are very strong (return on equity ~39% in 2020 and ~49–53% in 2021–2024), but that strength is partly supported by leverage, making the profile less defensive if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is consistently positive, with operating cash flow generally in the ~$1.1B–$1.6B range (2021–2025) and free cash flow positive each year. However, free cash flow is volatile and has not consistently grown: it dropped sharply in 2021, recovered through 2022–2024, and then declined again in 2025 (free cash flow growth -22.25%). Free cash flow conversion versus net income is moderate and steady (~0.43–0.45 in 2021–2025), indicating earnings quality is reasonable, though not exceptionally cash-rich.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.52B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	12.73B
Gross Profit	5.16B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	4.48B
EBITDA	1.96B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	1.58B
Net Income	1.10B	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	997.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.93B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	7.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.11M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	878.03M
Total Debt	5.94B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	3.92B
Total Liabilities	8.35B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	2.58B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	740.49M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	510.29M
Operating Cash Flow	1.64B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	1.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-778.58M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-627.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-914.06M	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-975.11M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price51.18

Price Trends

50DMA

52.26

Negative

100DMA

53.11

Negative

200DMA

54.31

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.03

Positive

RSI

44.95

Neutral

STOCH

28.87

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.27, below the 50-day MA of 52.26, and below the 200-day MA of 54.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Risk Analysis

Tractor Supply disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tractor Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	75 Outperform	$24.95B	22.97	56.92%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
DKS	71 Outperform	$19.12B	17.09	23.79%	2.33%	10.86%	-11.63%
CASY	68 Neutral	$25.26B	41.91	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
TSCO	67 Neutral	$28.04B	25.86	45.18%	1.80%	4.26%	0.73%
GPC	63 Neutral	$16.35B	250.89	1.51%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
BBY	62 Neutral	$13.14B	20.71	22.49%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSCO

Tractor Supply

51.18

-3.23

-5.93%

BBY

Best Buy Co

62.86

-22.46

-26.33%

CASY

Casey's General

682.35

269.88

65.43%

DKS

Dick's Sporting Goods

211.54

-8.38

-3.81%

GPC

Genuine Parts Company

116.86

-4.13

-3.41%

WSM

Williams-Sonoma

211.38

19.77

10.32%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividends

Tractor Supply Boosts Dividend and Board Oversight Strategy

Positive

Feb 11, 2026

On February 10, 2026, Tractor Supply Company’s board appointed former Gap Inc. chief executive Sonia Syngal as an independent director, expanding the board to 10 members and adding deep experience in global supply chains, brand management and retail transformation. Announced publicly on February 11, 2026, her appointment underscores the retailer’s push to bolster strategic oversight as it executes its long-term growth plans and strengthens governance with a seasoned executive from major consumer and technology-driven businesses.

Also on February 11, 2026, Tractor Supply’s board raised its annual dividend by 4.3% to $0.96 per share, declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share payable on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 24, 2026. The increase, which marks the company’s 17th consecutive year of dividend growth, reinforces Tractor Supply’s emphasis on returning cash to investors and signals confidence in the resilience and cash-generating capacity of its rural lifestyle retail model.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Hold with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 12, 2026