Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.21B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.26%
• EPS Growth: 0.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 52,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 528,403,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,006,757
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,318,109
• PEG Ratio: 24.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.49
• 1Y Price Target: $57.59
• Price Target Upside: 4.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.36B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $55.00 ▼(-0.51% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and consistent profitability, but meaningfully offset by rising leverage (including a sharp 2025 debt increase) and choppy free-cash-flow trends. Technicals are currently weak with the stock trading below major moving averages, while valuation appears moderately expensive relative to near-term growth. The latest earnings call adds support via constructive 2026 guidance and progress on strategic initiatives, though Q4 promotional and cost pressures remain a near-term risk.

Positive Factors

Profitability & Margins

High gross and net margins alongside an outsized ROE reflect a durable retail economics model with strong assortment and private‑label leverage. These structural margins support reinvestment, dividends and buybacks, enhancing resilience across typical retail cycles and competitive pressures.

Cash Generation & FCF Conversion

Robust free cash flow growth and solid conversion of earnings into cash provide durable funding for capital plans, store openings and share repurchases. Strong cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and underpins strategic investments over the next several quarters.

Omnichannel & Strategic Expansion

Expanding final‑mile hubs, growing digital sales and the Allivet prescription business create multiple durable revenue channels and improve customer reach. Store openings plus logistics buildout deepen distribution scale, supporting longer‑term share gains in farm, pet and rural markets.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

Significant leverage elevates refinancing and interest sensitivity risk, constraining flexibility if demand softens. Heavy debt amid ongoing capex and repurchases makes the company more vulnerable to margin or sales volatility over the medium term and limits shock absorption.

SG&A Deleverage & Operating Pressure

Rising SG&A driven by new stores and acquisitions is pressuring operating income. If investments and integration costs persist, operating‑margin recovery could lag sales growth, making near‑term profitability more dependent on productivity gains and margin initiatives.

Supply‑chain Costs & Category Sensitivity

Sustained tariff exposure, higher transportation costs and higher inventory levels create structural margin risk and tie up working capital. Combined with weather and big‑ticket discretionary volatility, these factors can amplify earnings swings across seasons and economic cycles.

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Tractor Supply generates revenue primarily through the sale of products in its retail stores and online platform. Key revenue streams include agricultural supplies, animal feed, lawn and garden products, and tools and hardware. The company's extensive product assortment and focus on rural lifestyle products cater to a niche market, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge. Additionally, TSCO benefits from its private label brands, which typically offer higher margins compared to name-brand products. The company also leverages its e-commerce platform, which has seen significant growth, especially during periods of increased online shopping. Partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enhance its product offerings and inventory management, contributing to overall sales growth.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (Score 78) shows steady multi-year revenue growth with stable ~35–36% gross margin and ~7–8% net margin, supporting a durable earnings profile. This is tempered by a more levered balance sheet (Score 62) with a sharp 2025 debt increase, raising financial risk. Cash flow is consistently positive (Score 70) but free cash flow has been volatile, including a notable 2025 decline.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded steadily from ~$10.6B (2020) to ~$14.9B (2024), showing durable top-line momentum, though growth normalized to low-single-digits in 2023–2024 after the post-2020 surge. Profitability is consistently solid for specialty retail with stable operating leverage: gross margin held around ~35–36% (2020–2024) and net margin stayed ~7–8%. 2025 annual data shows margins recorded as 0.0 in the dataset (likely missing/invalid), but absolute earnings remained strong with net income still around ~$1.10B, implying continued profitability despite slower growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is more levered over time: total debt rose from ~$3.5B (2020) to ~$5.4B (2024), and then jumped to ~$9.6B in 2025, which increases financial risk and reduces flexibility. Equity increased modestly over the period (~$1.9B to ~$2.6B), but leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.84x in 2020 rising to ~2.39x in 2024). Returns to shareholders are very strong (return on equity ~39% in 2020 and ~49–53% in 2021–2024), but that strength is partly supported by leverage, making the profile less defensive if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with operating cash flow generally in the ~$1.1B–$1.6B range (2021–2025) and free cash flow positive each year. However, free cash flow is volatile and has not consistently grown: it dropped sharply in 2021, recovered through 2022–2024, and then declined again in 2025 (free cash flow growth -22.25%). Free cash flow conversion versus net income is moderate and steady (~0.43–0.45 in 2021–2025), indicating earnings quality is reasonable, though not exceptionally cash-rich.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.52B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	12.73B
Gross Profit	5.16B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	4.48B
EBITDA	1.96B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	1.58B
Net Income	1.10B	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	997.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.93B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	7.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.11M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	878.03M
Total Debt	9.63B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	3.92B
Total Liabilities	8.35B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	2.58B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	740.49M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	510.29M
Operating Cash Flow	1.64B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	1.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-778.58M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-627.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-914.06M	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-975.11M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 55.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.52, above the 50-day MA of 52.45, and above the 200-day MA of 54.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	75 Outperform	$25.77B	23.75	56.92%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
DKS	71 Outperform	$18.94B	16.32	23.79%	2.33%	10.86%	-11.63%
GPC	69 Neutral	$20.58B	24.61	17.05%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
CASY	68 Neutral	$24.01B	39.44	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
TSCO	67 Neutral	$29.21B	25.96	45.18%	1.80%	4.26%	0.73%
BBY	62 Neutral	$14.35B	21.65	22.49%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Tractor Supply Approves CEO Retention Equity Awards

On November 5, 2025, Tractor Supply Company’s Board of Directors approved retention equity awards for CEO Harry A. Lawton III, aimed at retaining him through extended vesting periods. These awards include a performance share unit award and a restricted share unit award, with vesting conditions tied to continued employment and company performance. Additionally, the Board temporarily waived director service limitations to allow Mr. Lawton to serve on two outside boards. On the same day, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on December 9, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 24, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.