Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.11B
• Dividend Yield: 1.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.26%
• EPS Growth: 0.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 52,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 529,951,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,005,870
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,987,354
• PEG Ratio: 27.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 46.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.19
• 1Y Price Target: $64.81
• Price Target Upside: 20.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.65B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(13.13% Upside)

Tractor Supply's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are significant strengths, supporting a solid stock score. However, the high valuation and technical indicators suggest caution, as the stock may face near-term pressures. The company's strategic growth initiatives and effective cost management are expected to drive long-term success.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Tractor Supply's strong revenue growth and comparable store sales increase indicate effective market penetration and customer engagement, supporting long-term business expansion.

Cash Generation

Robust cash generation enhances Tractor Supply's ability to invest in growth initiatives, service debt, and return value to shareholders, ensuring financial stability.

Strategic Initiatives

The success of the Final Mile initiative reflects strategic foresight in enhancing delivery capabilities, which can drive customer satisfaction and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Elevated Debt Levels

High leverage could limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Tractor Supply's ability to invest in future growth or weather economic downturns.

Cost Pressures

Ongoing tariff-related cost pressures can erode margins and profitability, challenging Tractor Supply's ability to maintain cost efficiency and competitive pricing.

Discretionary Category Weakness

Weak performance in discretionary categories may signal shifting consumer preferences or economic pressures, potentially affecting revenue diversification and growth.

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is a retail chain specializing in farm and ranch products, serving the needs of farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners. Founded in 1938, the company operates over 1,900 stores across the United States, offering a wide range of products including agricultural supplies, tools, equipment, pet supplies, and lawn and garden products. TSCO focuses on providing essential goods and services that support the rural lifestyle, catering to both professional and recreational customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Tractor Supply generates revenue primarily through the sale of products in its retail stores, with key revenue streams including sales of livestock feed, pet supplies, and equipment for farming and gardening. The company also benefits from a growing e-commerce presence, allowing customers to shop online for in-store pickup or home delivery. Additionally, TSCO has established partnerships with various brands and suppliers in the agricultural and pet supply sectors, enhancing its product offerings and driving sales. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and a focus on customer service further contribute to customer retention and increased sales, bolstering the company's overall earnings.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tractor Supply demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue and cash flow growth, solid profitability margins, and effective equity utilization. However, the elevated debt-to-equity ratio could pose financial flexibility risks. Continued focus on managing leverage while maintaining growth momentum will be crucial for sustained financial strength.

Income Statement

Tractor Supply shows strong revenue growth from $10.6 billion in 2020 to $15.1 billion in TTM 2025, indicating robust expansion. Gross profit margin is stable around 35.6%, and net profit margin is healthy at approximately 7.2% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are consistent, reflecting operational efficiency. Revenue growth is driven by strategic initiatives, positioning the company well within the specialty retail sector.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 2.23 in TTM 2025, suggesting higher leverage. However, return on equity remains strong at 43.7%, indicating efficient use of equity. Equity ratio is moderate at 23.6%, reflecting balanced asset financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability, but high leverage is a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew from $510 million in 2021 to $820 million in TTM 2025, showcasing solid cash generation. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, underlining strong cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating robust cash availability for growth and debt servicing. The cash flow position supports ongoing investments and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2019	Dec 2018
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.63B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	8.35B	7.91B
Gross Profit	4.16B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	2.87B	2.70B
EBITDA	1.54B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	939.20M	879.09M
Net Income	868.68M	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	562.35M	532.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.88B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	5.29B	3.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.64M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	84.24M	86.30M
Total Debt	5.72B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	2.71B	440.27M
Total Liabilities	8.30B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	3.72B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	2.57B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	1.57B	1.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	681.21M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	594.27M	415.86M
Operating Cash Flow	1.31B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	811.72M	694.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-676.87M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-214.96M	-276.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-700.41M	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-598.81M	-440.93M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 53.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.82, below the 50-day MA of 57.05, and below the 200-day MA of 54.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DKS	82 Outperform	$19.39B	15.09	37.37%	2.16%	2.70%	4.58%
TSCO	71 Outperform	$28.11B	25.61	45.46%	1.69%	4.26%	0.73%
BBY	71 Outperform	$16.68B	21.87	26.72%	4.69%	-2.21%	-37.30%
GPC	64 Neutral	$17.07B	21.14	17.05%	3.28%	3.26%	-25.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AZO	58 Neutral	$61.14B	25.37	―	―	2.43%	-3.34%
CHWY	54 Neutral	$14.02B	93.31	34.48%	―	9.04%	-56.79%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Tractor Supply’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

The recent earnings call of Tractor Supply Company painted a balanced picture of the company’s performance. The management highlighted strong revenue growth, impressive customer engagement, and successful digital sales integration. However, they also acknowledged challenges such as weak discretionary spending, variable weather impacts, and tariff-related cost pressures.

Tractor Supply Company Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Tractor Supply Company, the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S., specializes in serving the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, homeowners, and pet enthusiasts with a wide range of products for rural living. In its latest earnings report for the third quarter of 2025, Tractor Supply Company announced a record net sales increase of 7.2% to $3.72 billion, driven by growth in comparable store sales and new store openings. The company’s diluted earnings per share rose to $0.49, reflecting a solid performance in line with expectations. Key financial highlights include a 3.9% increase in comparable store sales and a gross profit rise of 7.7% to $1.39 billion. The company also opened 29 new stores and repurchased 1.3 million shares of its common stock. Looking ahead, Tractor Supply has narrowed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting net sales growth between 4.6% and 5.6% and comparable store sales growth between 1.4% and 2.4%. The company remains focused on enhancing customer experience and expanding capabilities as part of its Life Out Here 2030 strategic initiatives.

Tractor Supply Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On August 7, 2025, Tractor Supply Company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on September 9, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 25, 2025. This declaration reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and maintaining its strong position in the rural lifestyle retail market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.