Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.16B
• Dividend Yield: 1.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.26%
• EPS Growth: 0.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 52,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 528,403,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,136,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,340,057
• PEG Ratio: 27.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 46.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.04
• 1Y Price Target: $64.47
• Price Target Upside: 25.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.66B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $60.00 ▲(16.73% Upside)

Tractor Supply's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are major strengths, supported by robust revenue growth and strategic expansion plans. However, technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and high debt levels pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Tractor Supply's strong revenue growth and comparable store sales increase indicate effective market penetration and customer engagement, supporting long-term business expansion.

Cash Generation

Robust cash generation enhances Tractor Supply's ability to invest in growth initiatives, service debt, and return value to shareholders, ensuring financial stability.

Strategic Initiatives

The success of the Final Mile initiative reflects strategic foresight in enhancing delivery capabilities, which can drive customer satisfaction and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Elevated Debt Levels

High leverage could limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Tractor Supply's ability to invest in future growth or weather economic downturns.

Cost Pressures

Ongoing tariff-related cost pressures can erode margins and profitability, challenging Tractor Supply's ability to maintain cost efficiency and competitive pricing.

Discretionary Category Weakness

Weak performance in discretionary categories may signal shifting consumer preferences or economic pressures, potentially affecting revenue diversification and growth.

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Tractor Supply generates revenue primarily through the sale of products in its retail stores and online platform. Key revenue streams include agricultural supplies, animal feed, lawn and garden products, and tools and hardware. The company's extensive product assortment and focus on rural lifestyle products cater to a niche market, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge. Additionally, TSCO benefits from its private label brands, which typically offer higher margins compared to name-brand products. The company also leverages its e-commerce platform, which has seen significant growth, especially during periods of increased online shopping. Partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enhance its product offerings and inventory management, contributing to overall sales growth.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tractor Supply demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue and cash flow growth, solid profitability margins, and effective equity utilization. However, the elevated debt-to-equity ratio could pose financial flexibility risks.

Income Statement

Tractor Supply shows strong revenue growth from $10.6 billion in 2020 to $15.1 billion in TTM 2025, indicating robust expansion. Gross profit margin is stable around 35.6%, and net profit margin is healthy at approximately 7.2% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are consistent, reflecting operational efficiency. Revenue growth is driven by strategic initiatives, positioning the company well within the specialty retail sector.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 2.23 in TTM 2025, suggesting higher leverage. However, return on equity remains strong at 43.7%, indicating efficient use of equity. Equity ratio is moderate at 23.6%, reflecting balanced asset financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability, but high leverage is a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew from $510 million in 2021 to $820 million in TTM 2025, showcasing solid cash generation. Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, underlining strong cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating robust cash availability for growth and debt servicing. The cash flow position supports ongoing investments and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.40B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	12.73B	10.62B
Gross Profit	5.49B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	4.48B	3.76B
EBITDA	1.97B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	1.58B	1.21B
Net Income	1.11B	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	997.11M	748.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.88B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	7.77B	7.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.64M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	878.03M	1.34B
Total Debt	5.72B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	3.92B	3.54B
Total Liabilities	8.30B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	5.76B	5.13B
Stockholders Equity	2.57B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	2.00B	1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	952.41M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	510.29M	1.10B
Operating Cash Flow	1.83B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	1.14B	1.39B
Investing Cash Flow	-860.66M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-627.34M	-292.21M
Financing Cash Flow	-968.64M	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-975.11M	155.21M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.20, below the 50-day MA of 53.96, and below the 200-day MA of 54.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	75 Outperform	$22.79B	20.99	56.92%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
TSCO	73 Outperform	$27.16B	24.81	45.46%	1.79%	4.26%	0.73%
DKS	71 Outperform	$19.09B	17.06	23.79%	2.29%	10.86%	-11.63%
GPC	69 Neutral	$17.45B	21.61	17.05%	3.28%	3.26%	-25.41%
CASY	68 Neutral	$20.70B	34.35	16.99%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
BBY	62 Neutral	$15.05B	23.71	22.49%	5.29%	-0.95%	-48.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Tractor Supply Approves CEO Retention Equity Awards

On November 5, 2025, Tractor Supply Company’s Board of Directors approved retention equity awards for CEO Harry A. Lawton III, aimed at retaining him through extended vesting periods. These awards include a performance share unit award and a restricted share unit award, with vesting conditions tied to continued employment and company performance. Additionally, the Board temporarily waived director service limitations to allow Mr. Lawton to serve on two outside boards. On the same day, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on December 9, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 24, 2025.