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Credit Agricole SA (CRARY)
OTHER OTC:CRARY
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Credit Agricole
(OTC:CRARY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
â–²(12.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals—solid profitability and growth but higher leverage and uneven cash flow—offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and strong yield). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend and neutral momentum, while the latest earnings call adds a positive outlook via synergy-driven guidance despite near-term one-off and mobility/provisioning headwinds.
Positive Factors
Capital and Liquidity Strength
High CET1 ratios and very large liquidity reserves provide a strong regulatory and funding buffer, supporting continued lending, dividends and M&A. This durable balance-sheet strength lowers solvency risk and increases strategic optionality over the next several years.
Diversified fee-generating businesses
Record insurance income and very large asset-management inflows create stable, recurring fee revenue that reduces reliance on interest margins. Large AUM and insurance scale support cross-sell, margin resiliency and long-term earnings diversification through cycles.
Disciplined M&A and realized synergies
Concrete synergy targets and realized integration progress (66% achieved) indicate M&A is accretive and operationally adding recurring income. Historical ~13% ROI on acquisitions implies disciplined deployment, which should sustainably improve margins and ROE over medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow/CF volatility
Sustained negative free cash flow reduces internal funding for investments, buybacks or higher dividends and raises dependence on external financing. If cash‑flow volatility persists it can constrain strategic flexibility and increase funding cost vulnerability over the coming quarters.
Accounting volatility from Banco BPM consolidation
Large one‑off consolidation and valuation swings create material earnings volatility and complicate comparability. Even if judged non‑recurring, such accounting impacts can affect reported capital, investor perceptions and short‑term strategic metrics, adding execution risk during integration.
Mobility / Specialized finance weakness
Structural weakness in auto leasing, remarketing and mobility can depress specialized finance revenues and margins, driving higher provisions and lower ROA in those units. Recovery timelines are uncertain, so these segments may meaningfully weigh on group profitability over several quarters.
Credit Agricole (CRARY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.76B
Dividend Yield6.3%
Average Volume (3M)50.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-3.47%
EPS Growth15.46%
CountryUS
Employees80,518
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding6,051,804,700
10 Day Avg. Volume24,181
30 Day Avg. Volume50,869
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.96
Price to Book (P/B)0.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio1.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue-93.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-93.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-37.59
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.56B
Credit Agricole Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCrédit Agricole S.A. provides retail, corporate, insurance, and investment banking products and services worldwide. It operates through Asset Gathering; Large Customers; Specialised Financial Services; French Retail Banking - LCL; and International Retail Banking. The company offers banking products and services, including savings and current accounts and deposits, finance, payments, and flow management services; consumer finance products; and banking and specialized financial services. It also provides wealth management services that allow individual customers to manage, protect, and transfer their assets, as well as other asset management services; and savings/retirement, death and disability/creditor/group, and property and casualty insurance products. In addition, the company offers financing solutions for property and equipment investment and renewal requirements; trade receivable financing and management solutions for corporates; and financing services for renewable energy and public infrastructure projects, as well as leasing services. Further, it provides investment banking, structured finance, international trade finance, commercial banking, capital market, and syndication services; and asset servicing solutions for investment products, as well as various asset classes, such as execution, clearing, forex, security lending and borrowing, custody, depositary bank, fund administration, middle-office outsourcing solutions, and fund distribution support and issuer services. The company serves retail customers, corporates, banks and financial institutions, government agencies, and local authorities. Crédit Agricole S.A. was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Montrouge, France. Crédit Agricole S.A. operates as a subsidiary of SAS Rue La Boétie.
How the Company Makes MoneyCredit Agricole generates revenue through several key streams: interest income from loans provided to individuals and businesses, fees for financial services such as account management and transaction processing, and commissions from investment products and insurance. The bank also earns revenue through its asset management division, which generates fees based on the funds it manages. Additionally, strategic partnerships with various financial and non-financial institutions enhance its service offerings and broaden its customer base, contributing to overall earnings.
Credit Agricole Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted robust full‑year commercial and financial performance — record revenues, strong client acquisition, insurance and asset management inflows, solid capital and liquidity metrics, and clear progress on strategic M&A and integration. Most Q4 weaknesses were driven by identifiable one‑offs (Banco BPM first consolidation accounting, Leasys/automotive headwinds, and specific provisions) which management framed as temporary or structural adjustments to support the medium‑term plan. Given the breadth of operational strengths and the management guidance that many negative items should normalize in 2026 while recurring contributions (e.g., Banco BPM) begin, the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Net Income and Profitability
Crédit Agricole Group delivered robust full-year results with CASA net income group share of EUR 7.1 billion (stable vs prior year) and Group net income group share reported at EUR 8.8 billion. Return on tangible equity (ROTE) remained high at 13.5% (13.9% pro forma), supporting the 2028 financial trajectory.
Revenue Growth Across the Group
Revenues reached record levels in 2025 with Group revenues up 3.9% year‑on‑year and CASA revenues up 3.3%, driven by broad-based commercial activity and a rebound in net interest income in France.
Outstanding Commercial Momentum and Client Acquisition
Group added a record 2.1 million new customers in 2025. Retail banks' loan production rose ~15% year‑on‑year to EUR 140 billion. On-balance sheet and off-balance savings increased across markets, supporting cross-sell opportunities.
Insurance, Asset Management and Asset Gathering Strength
Insurance premium income set a record at ~EUR 52 billion, up 20% vs 2024; life insurance net inflows reached EUR 15.9 billion. Amundi net inflows rose to EUR 88 billion in 2025 (1.6x prior level). Asset management AUM hit a record EUR 2,380 billion.
CIB and Asset Servicing Performance
Corporate & Investment Banking delivered record revenues for Q4 and full-year 2025, benefiting from rates, repo and financing activities. Asset servicing saw higher AuC/AuM and completed ISB integration with 66% of synergies achieved and expected ~EUR 100 million net income contribution in 2026.
Capital and Liquidity Strength
CASA CET1 ratio at 11.8% (above 11% target) and Group CET1 at 17.4%, placing the Group among the better‑capitalized European banks. Liquidity reserves remained high at EUR 485 billion; 2025 funding executed comfortably (EUR 23.1 billion vs plan EUR 20 billion).
Dividend Increase and Commitment to Strategy
Proposed dividend of EUR 1.13 per share, up 3% year‑on‑year, while management reiterated confidence in 2026/2028 medium‑term plan and continued investments (digital, AI, tokenization, geographic expansion).
Disciplined M&A and Integration Progress
Targeted partnerships and acquisitions (Victory Capital, increased Banco BPM stake, Crelan partnership, CACEIS noncontrolling interest, ICG JV) strengthened presence in Europe, Asia and U.S. Historical analysis of acquisitions shows average ROI ~13% (above 10% threshold).
Negative Updates
Q4 Accounting Impact from Banco BPM Consolidation
First-time consolidation of Banco BPM caused a material Q4 P&L impact: ~EUR 607 million P&L effect on consolidation and a EUR 320 million negative equity‑valuation swing in Q4 revenues compared with prior quarter effects. These items depressed Q4 results and led to quarter-on-quarter net income decreases (Q4 net income down ~23.9% for Group and ~39.3% for CASA).
Leasys / Mobility Headwinds
Equity-accounted JV Leasys (with Stellantis) recorded a negative contribution of around EUR 111 million in Q4 due to weaker vehicle demand/remarketing and Stellantis‑related product challenges. Mobility segment (CAPFM) experienced market pressures in Europe and China; mobility revenues declined and recovery is expected to take quarters.
Exceptional Provisions and Legal/Liability Costs
Q4 included notable provisions: a EUR 41 million provision related to UK car‑loan litigation (total provisions to EUR 88 million for the matter) and a EUR 30 million provision in Italy tied to estimated exposure to a small bank (Banca Progetto) rescue. These drove a 5.9% increase in cost of risk for the quarter.
Restructuring and Integration Costs
Restructuring charges increased in 2025, including an Amundi optimization plan (~EUR 80 million announced; EUR 8 million this quarter) and significant Italy restructuring charges of EUR 65 million, contributing to a quarterly cost increase. Cost-to-income for CASA rose to 55.7% (up 1.3 percentage points year‑on‑year).
Consumer Finance / Mobility Revenue Pressure
Specialized Financial Services saw mobility revenue weakness and a base‑effect of ~EUR 30 million in Consumer Finance; automobile market softness weighed on managed loans and remarketing margins.
Short-term Volatility in Reported Quarterly Results
A series of one‑offs (Banco BPM consolidation, Amundi U.S. deconsolidation capital gain, additional corporate tax charge of EUR 147 million at CASA level) made Q4 comparability and market interpretation more difficult, contributing to adverse market reaction despite positive underlying activity.
Elevated but Managed Cost of Risk in Specific Businesses
While overall asset quality remains solid, Stage‑3 cost of risk saw pockets of pressure: 44% of Stage‑3 cost of risk attributable to SFS, 32% to LCL (noting higher individual corporate provisioning in retail distribution sector). CASA cost of risk on outstandings at ~35 bps (vs 34 bps prior year).
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance is for accelerating commercial momentum, faster integration of recent acquisitions and realization of synergies, with Banco BPM now expected to deliver a recurring ~€100m per quarter (~€400m p.a.), ISB contributing ~€100m in 2026, and wealth-management synergies targeting €150–200m by 2028; they expect the pro‑forma cost/income peak (57.4% in 2025; CASA 55.7%, Group 59.6%) to decline in 2026, ROTE to build on 13.5% (CASA) / 13.9% pro‑forma toward a >14% 2028 objective, and medium‑term CASA cost of risk around 40bps (current cost of risk on outstandings: CASA 35bps, Group 28bps); capital and liquidity remain ample (CASA CET1 target 11% and 11.8% at Dec‑2025, Group CET1 17.4%, liquidity reserves €485bn, 2026 funding plan ~€18bn with ~31% placed by end‑January), and management expects net income to increase versus the restated ~€7.3bn 2025 pro‑forma as one‑offs unwind and mobility/CAPFM recover.Credit Agricole Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Earnings and revenue trends are solid overall (Income Statement score 72), but financial strength is constrained by a sharp 2025 leverage increase (Balance Sheet score 46) and multi-year cash flow volatility despite a strong 2025 rebound (Cash Flow score 58).Income Statement
Revenue expanded strongly from 2022–2025, with 2025 showing an unusually large jump versus prior years. Profitability is solid overall, with net income remaining positive each year and improving versus 2020. However, margins are volatile: 2025 shows very high operating and net margins versus 2023–2024, and 2025 gross margin is reported as 0.0 (likely a data anomaly), which adds uncertainty to trend quality.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is heavily levered (typical for banking but still a risk factor), with debt-to-equity rising meaningfully to ~7.47x in 2025 from ~4.22x in 2024 and ~2–4x in 2020–2023. Equity is relatively stable while total debt climbed sharply in 2025, increasing financial risk and reducing flexibility. Returns on equity are steady around ~8–10%, which is a positive offset, but the leverage trajectory is the key concern.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent: operating cash flow was negative in 2023 and 2024, then swung to a very strong positive level in 2025. Free cash flow is also volatile (negative in 2022–2024, strongly positive in 2025), suggesting variability in underlying cash conversion and/or timing effects. A positive point is that 2025 free cash flow is close to net income, indicating healthier cash realization in the most recent year, but the multi-year instability weighs on the score.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 66.08B | 74.47B | 68.33B | 37.61B | 33.07B |
| Gross Profit | 26.26B | 25.33B | 23.45B | 20.65B | 21.40B |
| EBITDA | 11.74B | 11.87B | 10.70B | 8.97B | 9.25B |
| Net Income | 7.07B | 7.09B | 6.35B | 5.31B | 5.84B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.37T | 2.31T | 2.19T | 2.14T | 2.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 579.76B | 829.24B | 598.93B | 654.92B | 640.85B |
| Total Debt | 312.98B | 315.58B | 280.25B | 239.90B | 199.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.30T | 2.23T | 2.11T | 2.06T | 2.00T |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.66B | 74.71B | 71.09B | 66.52B | 68.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 45.55B | -16.98B | -37.40B | -495.00M | 10.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 46.62B | -15.91B | -36.51B | 594.00M | 10.93B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -1.78B | 9.85B | -5.06B | -838.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.49B | 9.45B | 16.55B | 1.57B | -1.70B |
Credit Agricole Technical Analysis
Negative
10.18
Price Trends
10.53
Negative
10.04
Negative
9.76
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
33.96
Neutral
2.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRARY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.70, below the 50-day MA of 10.53, and above the 200-day MA of 9.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CRARY.
Credit Agricole Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $88.27B | 9.68 | 22.50% | 9.77% | 11.82% | 3.41% | |
72 Outperform | $85.66B | 10.18 | 11.99% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
70 Outperform | $59.76B | 7.45 | 9.77% | 6.30% | -3.47% | 15.46% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $83.76B | 10.95 | 12.16% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
64 Neutral | $76.20B | 12.62 | 10.47% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
57 Neutral | $102.70B | 10.79 | 10.22% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CRARY
Credit Agricole
9.85
1.23
14.21%
ITUB
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8.26
3.59
76.68%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.25
1.63
45.07%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.14
2.39
41.57%
PNC
PNC Financial
212.37
39.68
22.98%
USB
US Bancorp
53.91
10.99
25.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.