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Compass (COMP)
NYSE:COMP

Compass (COMP) AI Stock Analysis

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COMP

Compass

(NYSE:COMP)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▲(1.09% Upside)
The score is primarily driven by improving financial trajectory (notably strong free cash flow growth and better leverage) and strong technical momentum. This is offset by ongoing profitability weaknesses and a valuation profile dominated by losses (negative P/E), while the latest earnings call was supportive due to strong Q3 performance and cost discipline despite elevated OpEx and legal costs.
Positive Factors
Agent recruitment & retention
Consistently high principal agent additions and a 97.3% retention rate signal durable growth in Compass’s core distribution channel. Sustained agent growth increases transaction capacity, stabilizes recurring referral flows, and supports long-term revenue scale as the platform expands market coverage and network effects.
Free cash flow generation
Material FCF improvement and record quarterly free cash flow demonstrate improving cash conversion from operations. Strong, recurring FCF provides the company flexibility to fund integration, invest in agent tools, reduce debt, or weather housing cycles—key for long-term financial resilience.
Scale from Anywhere acquisition
Closing the Anywhere merger materially increases Compass’s agent base, franchise footprint, and services (title, relocation). Combining technology and well-known brands can boost distribution, cross-sell, and scale-driven margin improvement over time if integration captures synergies and retains agents.
Negative Factors
Profitability weaknesses
Persistently negative net and EBIT margins and a low gross margin constrain Compass’s ability to generate sustainable operating returns. Without sustained margin expansion, the business will struggle to convert revenue scale into shareholder returns or self-fund strategic investments over multiple housing cycles.
Elevated operating expenses
Rising non-GAAP operating expenses, including M&A-related and higher organic OpEx, reduce the leverage potential of revenue growth. If elevated spending persists, it can offset scale advantages, slow margin recovery, and increase dependency on external financing to fund growth and integration costs.
Legal & shareholder litigation risk
Ongoing shareholder suits and litigation tied to the merger create execution risk, potential remediation costs, and distraction for management. Protracted legal disputes can delay integration, increase expenses, and create uncertainty around governance and realized synergies over the medium term.

Compass (COMP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass, Inc. provides real estate brokerage services in the United States. It operates a cloud-based platform that provides an integrated suite of software for customer relationship management, marketing, client service, operations, and other functionality, as well as brokerage and adjacent services in the real estate industry. The company offers mobile apps that allow agents to manage their business anywhere as well as designs consumer-grade interfaces, an automated workflows for agent-client interactions. The company was formerly known as Urban Compass, Inc. and changed its name to Compass, Inc. in January 2021.Compass, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass generates revenue primarily through commissions earned on real estate transactions facilitated by its agents. Typically, the company takes a percentage of the commission paid by sellers to agents, which can vary based on the market and specific agreements. Additionally, Compass provides premium tools and services to its agents, which may include marketing support, technology platforms, and training resources, for which agents may pay fees or commission splits. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with various tech firms and real estate platforms to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing further to its revenue streams.

Compass Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Transactions
Total Transactions
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted record-breaking financial performance, strong agent recruitment, and successful integration of acquisitions. The company is making significant strides in AI to enhance agent productivity. However, there are concerns with increasing operating expenses and ongoing legal costs.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Q3 Revenue and Growth
Compass delivered record third quarter market share, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. Q3 revenue increased by 23.6% year-over-year, with organic revenue up 11%.
Strong Agent Recruitment and Retention
Compass achieved the best organic principal agent recruiting quarter in company history, adding 851 principal agents, with a retention rate of 97.3%.
Successful Integration and Synergies from Christie's Acquisition
The Christie's International Real Estate business outperformed expectations with a 1,000 basis point lift in attach rate and improved mortgage JV profitability.
AI Initiatives and Agent Productivity
Compass AI 2.0 testing showed promise in enhancing agent productivity and is expected to launch to all agents before the next earnings call.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $73.6 million in free cash flow in Q3, a record level for any third quarter period.
Negative Updates
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses Increase
Non-GAAP OpEx increased to $252 million in Q3, driven by M&A and higher organic OpEx by about 3.5%.
Legal Expenses and Pending Litigation
Ongoing legal expenses related to various litigation matters were included in the non-GAAP SG&A.
Company Guidance
During the Compass, Inc. 2025 Q3 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting expectations for financial results, operating expenses, and free cash flow. Compass anticipates Q4 revenue between $1.59 billion to $1.69 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $35 million to $49 million. The company reduced its full-year OpEx guidance to $1 billion to $1.005 billion, reflecting disciplined cost management. They reported record Q3 results, including a 23.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.85 billion, a 22% rise in total transactions, and an adjusted EBITDA of $93.6 million, up 80% from the previous year. Looking ahead, Compass expects to organically add 800 principal agents in Q4 and maintains a long-term range of 700-800 gross agent additions. Additionally, they announced an increase in the Anywhere transaction synergy target to more than $300 million in net cost synergies, with $150 million expected in the first year post-close.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass shows moderate revenue growth and improved cash flow generation, but profitability remains a concern with negative margins. The balance sheet shows improved leverage, yet profitability metrics like ROE are negative. Overall, the company is on a path of gradual improvement but faces challenges in achieving consistent profitability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Compass shows a modest revenue growth of 5.6% in the TTM, indicating a positive trend. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 16.6%, suggesting challenges in cost management.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.65 in the TTM, reflecting better leverage management compared to previous years. However, the negative return on equity indicates ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall balance sheet shows moderate stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The company has achieved a significant free cash flow growth of 27.8% in the TTM, which is a positive sign. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.35, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.90, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.64B5.63B4.88B6.02B6.42B3.72B
Gross Profit1.07B994.50M878.00M1.08B1.11B663.90M
EBITDA52.10M-65.60M-216.40M-500.30M-428.50M-220.10M
Net Income-56.40M-154.40M-321.30M-601.50M-494.10M-270.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.55B1.18B1.16B1.53B1.80B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments170.30M223.80M166.90M361.90M618.30M440.10M
Total Debt481.00M497.60M533.90M763.00M580.70M512.40M
Total Liabilities775.10M765.60M728.30M1.01B953.00M2.23B
Stockholders Equity773.30M409.40M428.70M517.10M843.80M-862.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow187.80M105.80M-37.10M-362.40M-78.70M-101.40M
Operating Cash Flow201.90M121.50M-25.90M-292.30M-28.60M-58.10M
Investing Cash Flow-195.60M-36.60M-11.70M-100.10M-192.50M-13.40M
Financing Cash Flow-47.20M-28.00M-157.40M136.00M399.30M19.90M

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.86
Price Trends
50DMA
10.52
Positive
100DMA
9.39
Positive
200DMA
8.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.64
Negative
RSI
72.60
Negative
STOCH
71.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COMP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.35, above the 50-day MA of 10.52, and above the 200-day MA of 8.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COMP.

Compass Risk Analysis

Compass disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Compass reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$4.83B-171.010.30%11.63%50.72%
73
Outperform
$6.86B-81.46-9.88%22.69%-32.47%
73
Outperform
$4.54B17.89130.93%2.11%17.83%118.70%
70
Outperform
$5.31B-174.50-3.92%35.87%85.20%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
60
Neutral
$9.12B-113.91-9.39%24.27%73.11%
57
Neutral
$4.18B134.335.68%13.93%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COMP
Compass
12.86
6.10
90.24%
QTWO
Q2 Holdings
65.07
-30.28
-31.76%
BILL
Bill.com Holdings
46.60
-43.79
-48.45%
FROG
JFrog
56.89
22.97
67.72%
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings Corp
20.26
1.24
6.52%
YOU
Clear Secure
34.92
10.59
43.53%

Compass Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Compass Closes Anywhere Merger and Issues Convertible Notes
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

On January 9, 2026, Compass issued $1.0 billion of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private placement to institutional buyers, using the proceeds primarily to repay existing indebtedness of Anywhere Real Estate and cover costs tied to their merger, as well as to fund capped call transactions designed to limit dilution upon conversion of the notes. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations guaranteed by certain Compass subsidiaries, carry an initial conversion price of about $15.98 per share and are paired with capped call transactions with a $23.68 per-share cap, reinforcing the company’s capital structure as it integrates Anywhere. On the same date, Compass completed its previously announced all-stock acquisition of Anywhere, exchanging each share of Anywhere common stock for 1.436 Compass shares, and began operating the combined business under Compass International Holdings, positioning the enlarged group—under Chairman and CEO Robert Reffkin—as a dominant, technology-driven platform for real estate professionals that brings together respected brands and agents on a single modern technology infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Compass Prices Upsized Convertible Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Compass, Inc. announced it had priced an upsized private offering of $850 million in 0.25% convertible senior notes due April 15, 2031, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $150 million, targeted to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The senior unsecured notes, guaranteed by key Compass subsidiaries, carry an initial conversion rate implying a $15.98 per-share conversion price—about a 35% premium to the January 7, 2026 NYSE closing price—and are supported by capped call transactions with a $23.68 cap, or a 100% premium, designed to limit potential dilution from conversion. Compass plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including, if its previously announced merger with Anywhere Real Estate Inc. is completed, repaying portions of Anywhere’s existing indebtedness and covering merger-related costs, as well as funding the capped call transactions, a move that would strengthen the combined entity’s balance sheet and could influence trading dynamics in Compass’s Class A stock and the notes as counterparties hedge their positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Compass and Anywhere stockholders approve transformative merger
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2025, Compass, Inc. held a special meeting of stockholders at which shareholders overwhelmingly approved the issuance of Compass Class A common stock to stockholders of Anywhere Real Estate Inc. in connection with their planned merger, as well as the option to adjourn the meeting if needed, though adjournment proved unnecessary due to a strong quorum and decisive support. In a joint announcement dated January 7, 2026, Compass and Anywhere reported that stockholders of both companies had overwhelmingly approved all merger-related proposals at their respective special meetings, with approximately 99% of votes cast at Compass supporting the share issuance and 72.4% of Anywhere’s outstanding shares voting to adopt the merger agreement; the merger, expected to close on January 9, 2026 subject to customary conditions, is set to combine Compass’s tech-driven brokerage platform with Anywhere’s extensive franchise, brokerage, relocation, and title operations, potentially creating a more powerful player in residential real estate and affecting agents, franchise owners, and other stakeholders across both networks.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Compass Launches Convertible Notes Offering for Merger Financing
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

Compass said the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for its planned merger with Anywhere Real Estate expired on January 2, 2026, clearing a key U.S. antitrust hurdle as both companies move toward shareholder votes scheduled for January 7, 2026 and potential closing shortly thereafter, subject to remaining customary conditions. On January 7, 2026, Compass also announced a proposed private offering of $750 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an option for an additional $112.5 million, to be used for general corporate purposes including repayment of Anywhere’s debt and merger-related costs if the deal closes, as well as capped call transactions intended to limit dilution, enabling the company to replace previously arranged bridge financing and refine the capital structure underpinning the proposed acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Compass Issues Supplemental Disclosures Amid Anywhere Merger Lawsuits
Negative
Dec 29, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Compass, Inc. entered into a merger agreement under which its wholly owned subsidiary will merge with Anywhere Real Estate Inc., leaving Anywhere as a wholly owned subsidiary of Compass, and the companies have been soliciting shareholder approval ahead of a special meeting scheduled for January 7, 2026. After the joint proxy statement/prospectus was filed in November and finalized in December 2025, three lawsuits by Anywhere shareholders and several demand letters from shareholders of both companies alleged that the proxy materials were misleading or incomplete and sought to block or unwind the deal or obtain damages, prompting Compass and Anywhere—while denying any wrongdoing or legal need for additional disclosure—to issue voluntary supplemental financial and compensation-related disclosures, including expanded valuation assumptions from Goldman Sachs and more detail on executive and director equity awards and potential post-merger arrangements, in an effort to reduce litigation risk and avoid delays to the shareholder vote and closing of the merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Compass Secures $250M Revolving Credit Agreement
Positive
Nov 17, 2025

On November 17, 2025, Compass, Inc. entered into a Revolving Credit and Guaranty Agreement with Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. and other lenders, securing an initial $250 million revolving credit facility. This facility could increase to $500 million if Compass’s merger with Anywhere Real Estate Inc. is completed. The agreement includes a letter of credit sublimit and is secured by a first priority interest in Compass’s assets. The credit facility has a maturity date of November 17, 2030, with potential earlier maturity linked to Anywhere’s financial obligations. The agreement outlines various financial covenants and conditions, including maintaining certain liquidity and revenue levels before the merger and adjusting leverage ratios post-merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (COMP) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the COMP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 10, 2026