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Columbia Banking System (COLB)
NASDAQ:COLB
US Market

Columbia Banking System (COLB) AI Stock Analysis

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COLB

Columbia Banking System

(NASDAQ:COLB)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
â–²(9.74% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (revenue and free cash flow strength) and a supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a high dividend yield). Technicals add a positive trend backdrop, while the earnings call reinforces confidence via acquisition integration progress and shareholder returns; risks center on profitability pressure, higher debt over time, and deposit/loan-optimization execution.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition of Pacific Premier enhances Columbia's market presence and asset base, strengthening its competitive position in the regional banking sector.
Share Repurchase Program
The significant share repurchase program reflects confidence in financial strength and supports shareholder value, indicating robust capital generation.
Improved Capital Ratios
Strong capital ratios provide a buffer against economic uncertainties and support future growth initiatives, enhancing financial stability.
Negative Factors
Profitability Margins
Decreasing margins and rising debt may pressure long-term profitability, affecting the bank's ability to invest in growth and innovation.
Loan Portfolio Optimization
Efforts to optimize the loan portfolio could limit short-term loan growth, impacting revenue from interest income despite long-term strategic benefits.
Seasonal Deposit Outflows
Seasonal deposit outflows may necessitate costly wholesale funding, affecting liquidity and potentially increasing funding costs.

Columbia Banking System (COLB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Columbia Banking System Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionColumbia Banking System, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Columbia State Bank that provides a range of banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals in the United States. It offers personal banking products and services, including noninterest and interest-bearing checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts; home mortgages for purchases and refinances, home equity loans and lines of credit, and other personal loans; debit and credit cards; and digital banking services. The company also provides business banking products and services, such as checking, savings, interest-bearing money market, and certificate of deposit accounts; agricultural, asset-based, builder, and other commercial real estate loans, as well as loans guaranteed by the small business administration; and professional banking, treasury management, merchant card, and international banking services. In addition, it offers wealth management solutions that include financial planning services, such as asset allocation, net worth analysis, estate planning and preservation, education funding, and wealth transfer; long-term care, and life and disability insurance solutions; individual retirement solutions comprising retirement planning, retirement income strategies, and traditional and Roth individual retirement accounts; and business solutions, which comprise business retirement plans, key person insurance, business succession planning, and deferred compensation plans to individuals, families, and professional businesses. Further, the company provides fiduciary, investment, and administrative trust services, such as personal and special needs trusts, estate settlement, and investment agency and charitable management. It operates a network of 153 branch locations, including 68 in the state of Washington, 59 in Oregon, 15 in Idaho, and 11 in California. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyColumbia Banking System generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from service fees and other banking services. The bank earns interest by lending money to consumers and businesses, with interest rates typically higher than the rates paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial and residential loans, consumer loans, and mortgage originations. Additionally, the bank collects fees for services such as account maintenance, ATM transactions, and wealth management, contributing to its non-interest income. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also help drive customer growth and enhance service offerings, further supporting the bank's overall earnings.

Columbia Banking System Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call emphasized successful strategic integration of Pacific Premier, strong sequential and annual operating performance (notably PPNR up 27% QoQ, NIM expansion to 4.06%, and double-digit fee and origination growth), solid capital returns and an active buyback plan, with manageable near-term balance sheet headwinds (transactional loan runoff, seasonal deposit outflows, and non-recurring Q4 margin items). Management provided clear guidance that some Q4 benefits will not repeat in Q1 but expects margins and profitability to trend higher through 2026 as cost synergies are realized and balance sheet optimization continues.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisition of Pacific Premier Completed
Closed the Pacific Premier acquisition in 2025, expanding Columbia's Western footprint, achieving a top-10 deposit market share in Southern California, and adding complementary fee and trust capabilities (e.g., custodial trust, API marketplace).
Strong Operating Revenue and Profitability Improvement
Fourth quarter operating PPNR rose 27% sequentially and operating net income increased 19% QoQ; full-year 2025 operating results increased 23% vs. 2024.
EPS and Return Metrics Improved
Reported Q4 EPS $0.72 and operating EPS $0.82 (increases of 6% and 15% YoY for the quarter). Achieved ROAA >1.4% and return on tangible common equity >17% for the quarter.
Net Interest Margin Expansion
NIM expanded to 4.06% in Q4 from 3.84% in Q3 and 3.64% for 2024 (22 bps sequential expansion), driven by improved funding performance, earning asset optimization, and one-time items that added ~11 bps in Q4.
Noninterest Income Strength
Q4 noninterest income was $90M GAAP ($88M operating); operating noninterest income rose by $16M sequentially (approximately $13M attributable to two additional months of PAC Premier) with high-water marks in swap and syndication banking revenue.
Cost Savings and Expense Management Progress
Achieved $63M of annualized deal-related cost savings (≈50% of $127M target). Operating noninterest expense was $373M; excluding CDI amortization $331M (near the low end of prior guidance $330–$340M).
Capital Deployment and Strong Capital Ratios
Increased quarterly dividend to $0.37 (from $0.36), repurchased 3.7M shares at an average $27.07, CET1 11.8%, total risk-based capital 13.6%, tangible book value $19.11 (+3% QoQ, +11% YoY), and >$600M excess capital with $600M repurchase authorization.
Robust Origination and Deposit Campaign Results
New loan originations of $1.4B in Q4 (up 23% YoY) and full-year originations +22% YoY. Deposit campaigns added $473M in low-cost deposits in late 2025; three 2025 campaigns added $1.3B in new customer deposits.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Balance Sheet Contraction
Gross loans declined to $47.8B from $48.5B (QoQ down ≈1.4%) and total deposits declined to $54.2B from $55.8B (QoQ down ≈2.9%), driven by transactional loan runoff, CRE construction paydowns, seasonal customer outflows, and intentional reduction of brokered/public deposits (> $650M).
Transactional and CRE Portfolio Runoff
Quarterly loan decline included roughly $300M transactional portfolio runoff and concentrated declines in CRE construction & development; $4B of transactional loans repricing/maturing over 24 months means limited net loan growth near-term.
Non-Repeatable Q4 Margin Contributors
Q4 net interest income benefited from $12M in acquired time deposit premium amortization and $5M accelerated loan repayment that together added ~11 bps to NIM; premium was fully amortized at year-end and will not repeat in 2026.
Credit Migration Between Categories
Special mention loans decreased while substandard increased, reflecting an approximate $130M swing each way (migration into substandard); allowance for credit losses was 1.02% of loans (1.32% when including credit discount on acquired loans).
Deal Synergies Not Fully Realized Yet
Only ~50% ($63M) of targeted $127M annualized deal-related cost savings realized by year-end; company expects full realization by end of Q2 2026 and some related investments/timing to push costs into 2026 (CDI amortization ~ $40M/quarter).
Q1 Near-Term NII and Earning Asset Pressure
Guidance expects Q1 NIM of 3.90–3.95% and NII to dip just below ~$600M in Q1 due to absence of Q4 one-offs and modest earning asset contraction (expecting $60.5B–$61.0B); NIM recovery anticipated later in 2026.
Surgical Loan Sale and Portfolio Cleanup
Sold $45M of acquired PAC Premier loans that were risk-rated special mention; treated as a cleanup opportunity with limited expectation of further large bulk sales, and a small goodwill impact (~$1M).
Company Guidance
The company guided to first-quarter net interest margin of 3.90%–3.95% (reflecting the loss of ~11 bps of fourth-quarter CD premium benefit) with earning assets roughly $60.5–$61.0 billion (down from $61.3B at year‑end) and net interest income expected to dip just below $600 million in Q1 before rising in Q2; management expects NIM to trend higher each quarter and to surpass 4% in Q2 or Q3. They see total loans roughly flat for the year (with transactional balances amortizing and core commercial growth offsetting runoff), modest seasonal deposit contraction into April before spring rebound, and a loan‑to‑deposit ratio comfortable in the low‑90s (finished Q4 at ~88%). Expense guidance is operating noninterest expense (excluding CDI amortization) of about $335–$345 million in Q1 and Q2, CDI amortization averaging ~ $40 million per quarter, a full‑year operating expense run‑rate near $1.5 billion (exit sub‑$370M all‑in; ~ $330M excluding CDI), and realization of $63 million of annualized deal‑related cost savings to date (≈50% of a $127M target) with full PAC Premier cost saves expected by end of Q2. Capital deployment priorities include raising buybacks to $150–$200 million per quarter in 2026 (≈$600 million remaining authorization), maintaining the $0.37 quarterly dividend, and operating with >$600 million of excess capital on the most constrained measure; key year‑end metrics included CET1 11.8%, total risk‑based capital 13.6%, tangible book $19.11, ROAA >1.4% and ROTCE >17%.

Columbia Banking System Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid, supported by consistent revenue growth and strong free cash flow growth. Offsetting factors include slight pressure on profit margins, a lower return on equity versus prior periods, and rising total debt (despite an improving debt-to-equity profile).
Income Statement
72
Positive
Columbia Banking System shows a solid performance in its income statement with a consistent revenue growth trend, particularly evident in the TTM period. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown stability, although they have decreased slightly from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operational management. However, the decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests some pressure on profitability.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved in the TTM period. The return on equity has decreased compared to previous years, indicating a slight decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights a strong free cash flow growth in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not fully aligned with reported net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, reflecting efficient cash management. The positive trend in free cash flow growth is a significant strength.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.21B2.97B2.74B1.35B1.32B
Gross Profit2.17B1.82B1.78B1.19B1.32B
EBITDA895.31M868.62M615.45M478.88M589.66M
Net Income550.03M533.67M348.71M336.75M420.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets66.83B51.58B52.17B31.85B30.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments511.00M2.08B10.99B4.49B6.63B
Total Debt3.84B3.90B4.76B1.72B975.13M
Total Liabilities58.99B46.46B47.18B29.37B27.89B
Stockholders Equity7.84B5.12B5.00B2.48B2.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00623.20M669.84M1.04B647.25M
Operating Cash Flow0.00658.87M669.84M1.07B662.72M
Investing Cash Flow0.00114.57M501.74M-3.53B-1.53B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.06B-303.69M1.00B1.06B

Columbia Banking System Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price30.07
Price Trends
50DMA
29.59
Positive
100DMA
27.91
Positive
200DMA
26.02
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.54
Positive
RSI
46.55
Neutral
STOCH
27.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COLB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.71, above the 50-day MA of 29.59, and above the 200-day MA of 26.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COLB.

Columbia Banking System Risk Analysis

Columbia Banking System disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Columbia Banking System reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Columbia Banking System Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$9.34B13.588.49%5.07%-0.30%-3.80%
74
Outperform
$6.53B25.276.43%2.89%8.73%26.19%
72
Outperform
$6.50B11.638.66%2.73%4.54%27.56%
71
Outperform
$5.74B12.1211.51%2.85%1.43%19.58%
70
Outperform
$5.61B8.0112.09%3.68%2.79%2.11%
69
Neutral
$7.40B13.147.85%3.69%-1.94%41.35%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COLB
Columbia Banking System
30.07
4.90
19.47%
OZK
Bank OZK
48.28
2.08
4.50%
FNB
F.N.B.
17.44
3.36
23.86%
GBCI
Glacier Bancorp
47.70
1.27
2.74%
HOMB
Home Bancshares
28.29
-0.14
-0.49%
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
12.91
3.82
41.99%

Columbia Banking System Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Columbia Banking System Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Post-Acquisition
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

On January 22, 2026, Columbia Banking System reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing net income of $215 million and operating net income of $243 million, equal to diluted earnings per share of $0.72 and operating diluted EPS of $0.82, respectively. The quarter reflected the first full three-month contribution from the Pacific Premier acquisition, driving a $122 million sequential increase in net interest income to $627 million, a 22-basis-point rise in net interest margin to 4.06%, and a $16 million rise in adjusted non-interest income, while non-interest expense rose by $19 million as the company continued to operate as a combined entity. Credit quality remained stable with net charge-offs at 0.25% of average loans and leases and non-performing assets at 0.30% of total assets, while provision expense fell sharply to $23 million from $70 million in the prior quarter, normalizing after acquisition-related impacts. Capital levels stayed strong, with an estimated total risk-based capital ratio of 13.6% and CET1 of 11.8%; Columbia paid a $0.37 per-share quarterly dividend in December 2025 and repurchased $100 million of common stock, underscoring ongoing capital returns to shareholders. Management highlighted disciplined balance sheet management, successful deposit-gathering campaigns that added $1.3 billion in new deposits in 2025, and progress toward a systems conversion expected later in the quarter, positioning the bank to capture merger-related cost savings, improve efficiency, and enhance long-term earnings power and competitiveness in its western U.S. markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Columbia Banking System Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release
Neutral
Dec 31, 2025

On December 31, 2025, Columbia Banking System, Inc. announced it would release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the market close on Thursday, January 22, 2026, followed by a conference call and live Q&A for investors and analysts at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time that same day. The scheduled disclosure and investor call underscore the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and provide an update on its latest financial performance and recent activities amid its continued role as a leading regional banking provider in the western United States.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Columbia Banking System Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025

Columbia Banking System announced a leadership change effective November 20, 2025, with Brock Lakely appointed as Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Corporate Controller, succeeding Lisa M. White. Mr. Lakely, who previously served as the company’s Chief Audit Executive and Chief Accounting Officer, brings extensive experience in the financial services industry, which is expected to support Columbia Banking System’s operational stability and strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividends
Columbia Banking System Increases Quarterly Dividend by 3%
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

On November 14, 2025, Columbia Banking System, Inc. announced a 3% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.37 per common share, payable on December 15, 2025. This move aligns with the company’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value, supported by a $700 million share repurchase program and expectations of strong profitability and capital generation in the coming quarters.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Columbia Banking System Appoints New CFO Ivan Seda
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Columbia Banking System announced the appointment of Ivan Seda as Chief Financial Officer, effective December 31, 2025, succeeding Ronald L. Farnsworth, who will transition to a senior advisor role until June 1, 2026. Seda, who joined Columbia in August 2025 and has extensive financial experience, is expected to continue driving the company’s growth and shareholder value. Farnsworth has been instrumental in Columbia’s recent strategic developments, and his transition is aimed at ensuring a seamless leadership change.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Columbia Banking System Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Columbia Banking System reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net income of $96 million and operating net income of $204 million. The company completed its acquisition of Pacific Premier, which contributed to a $59 million increase in net interest income and a 9 basis point rise in net interest margin. Despite acquisition-related expenses impacting reported results, core profitability remained strong, supported by customer deposit growth and balance sheet optimization. The board authorized a $700 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company’s strategy and capital generation outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLB) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Columbia Banking System stock, see the COLB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 23, 2026