Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
NASDAQ:VLY
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Valley National Bancorp
(NASDAQ:VLY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(8.02% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (margin expansion, NII growth, deposit improvement, and disciplined expenses). Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and strong dividend yield, while technical indicators are mixed and do not strongly reinforce near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Core deposit growth / funding improvement
Sustained core deposit growth materially strengthens Valley's funding profile, lowering reliance on costly wholesale sources and improving net interest margin durability. A larger stable deposit base supports loan originations, liquidity buffers and reduces refinancing risk across economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Uneven cash flow generation
Volatile operating and free cash flow reduces predictability of internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and loan growth. In periods of weaker cash flow, the bank may need to tap wholesale funding or curtail capital returns, increasing sensitivity to funding markets and cyclical earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core deposit growth / funding improvement
Sustained core deposit growth materially strengthens Valley's funding profile, lowering reliance on costly wholesale sources and improving net interest margin durability. A larger stable deposit base supports loan originations, liquidity buffers and reduces refinancing risk across economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.20B
Dividend Yield3.69%
Average Volume (3M)7.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-1.94%
EPS Growth41.35%
CountryUS
Employees3,732
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding555,426,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,384,140
30 Day Avg. Volume7,722,805
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)1.87
P/FCF Ratio19.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.82Price Target Upside14.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.26B
Valley National Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. It operates through Commercial Lending, Consumer Lending, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Valley National Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, consu...
Valley National Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operating momentum: record earnings, meaningful core deposit growth, expanding margins, improving credit metrics, and disciplined capital returns. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII +11–13%, mid-single-digit loan growth, expense control, and margin expansion of 15–20 bps) while acknowledging near-term seasonality, some episodic revenue items in 4Q, a few idiosyncratic credits, and sensitivity to the interest-rate path and competitive spreads. Overall, positives (profitability, funding improvement, loan pipeline, credit improvement, capital returns) materially outweigh the manageable near-term and idiosyncratic risks.Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Strong Yearly Earnings
Reported net income of ~$195,000,000 in 4Q25 ($0.33 diluted EPS) and adjusted net income of $180,000,000 ($0.31 vs $0.28 prior year). Full-year 2025 net income was $598,000,000 (or $585,000,000 adjusted), reflecting material improvement versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Reliance on Episodic Fee Income Items
Fourth-quarter fee income benefited materially from abnormally high commercial loan swap activity and unrealized valuation gains on fintech equity investments that management warns may not recur, creating potential moderation in near-term fee growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability and Strong Yearly Earnings
Reported net income of ~$195,000,000 in 4Q25 ($0.33 diluted EPS) and adjusted net income of $180,000,000 ($0.31 vs $0.28 prior year). Full-year 2025 net income was $598,000,000 (or $585,000,000 adjusted), reflecting material improvement versus 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted mid‑single digit loan growth for 2026 (roughly 10% C&I, low‑single‑digit CRE, mid‑single‑digit consumer/residential), with deposit growth expected to outpace loans and further reduce the loan‑to‑deposit ratio; core deposits grew nearly $4.0B (≈9% YoY) in 2025 and rose about $1.5B in 4Q, noninterest deposits +15% annualized. They expect net interest income to grow 11–13% and net interest margin to expand ~15–20 bps from 4Q25 to 4Q26 (3.17% in 4Q25, a modest Q1 dip then back to mid‑3.30s by 4Q26), modeling two rate cuts and a 50% total deposit beta (4Q implied quarterly beta ~55%); spot deposit cost ~2.32% (core ~2.10%, brokered ~4.20%), new deposit originations blended ~2.17%. Fee income is expected to grow high single digits (quarterly fee income baseline mid‑to‑high $60M), operating expenses guided to low‑single‑digit growth with efficiency improving toward ~50%, and loan loss provision implied around $100M as allowance coverage is expected to be broadly stable while net charge‑offs normalize (2025 NCOs 24 bps YTD; 4Q25 18 bps). Capital guidance: CET1 targeted 10.5–11.0% (gross CET1 generation ~130–140 bps in 2026 with ~50 bps to loan growth, ~50 bps to dividends and ~30–40 bps for buybacks), Q4 generated ~38 bps CET1, and management indicated potential buyback capacity of roughly $150–$200M while maintaining capital targets.Valley National Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.49B | 3.57B | 3.35B | 2.18B | 1.49B |
| Gross Profit | 1.88B | 1.53B | 1.83B | 1.81B | 1.33B |
| EBITDA | 743.87M | 517.35M | 761.54M | 860.11M | 691.70M |
| Net Income | 597.98M | 380.27M | 498.51M | 568.85M | 473.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 64.28B | 62.49B | 60.93B | 57.46B | 43.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 315.17M | 2.12B | 2.19B | 2.21B | 3.18B |
| Total Debt | 3.43B | 3.69B | 3.71B | 2.10B | 2.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 56.47B | 55.06B | 54.23B | 51.06B | 38.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.81B | 7.44B | 6.70B | 6.40B | 5.08B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 343.83M | 548.54M | 378.19M | 1.43B | 837.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 343.83M | 548.54M | 378.19M | 1.43B | 837.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.16B | -709.28M | -3.35B | -6.79B | -1.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.16B | 2.91B | 4.26B | 964.35M |
Valley National Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
12.96
Price Trends
12.54
Positive
12.00
Positive
10.95
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
65.28
Neutral
90.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.12, above the 50-day MA of 12.54, and above the 200-day MA of 10.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLY.
Valley National Bancorp Risk Analysis
Valley National Bancorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valley National Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valley National Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $5.39B | 7.10 | 11.93% | 3.68% | 2.79% | 2.11% | |
74 Outperform | $5.69B | 11.51 | 11.43% | 2.85% | 1.43% | 19.58% | |
74 Outperform | $6.96B | 12.03 | 7.14% | 3.31% | 0.55% | 19.13% | |
71 Outperform | $6.30B | 10.86 | 8.58% | 2.73% | 4.54% | 27.56% | |
69 Neutral | $7.20B | 8.34 | 7.82% | 3.69% | -1.94% | 41.35% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $6.16B | 22.44 | 6.53% | 2.89% | 8.73% | 26.19% |
* Financial Sector Average
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
12.96
5.25
67.98%
OZK
Bank OZK
47.49
11.28
31.17%
FNB
F.N.B.
17.64
6.19
54.09%
GBCI
Glacier Bancorp
47.36
9.91
26.46%
HOMB
Home Bancshares
28.15
3.66
14.93%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
68.55
6.53
10.54%
Valley National Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Valley National Bancorp Authorizes New Common Stock Buyback
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Valley National Bancorp announced that its board approved a new stock repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to 25 million shares of its common stock. The new authorization will take effect on April 27, 2026, immediate...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valley National Bancorp Reports Record Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported record fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, with net income rising to $195.4 million, or $0.33 per diluted share, up from $163.4 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $115.7 million a year earlier,...
Executive/Board Changes
Valley National Bancorp Appoints Carlos Vazquez to Board
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Valley National Bancorp’s board appointed Carlos Vazquez as an independent director to serve until the next annual shareholders’ meeting, also naming him to its Audit and Compensation and Human Capital Management C...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.