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Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
NASDAQ:VLY
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Valley National Bancorp
(NASDAQ:VLY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
â–²(8.35% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by steady financial health and profitability with prudent leverage, supported by constructive technical momentum and reasonable valuation with a solid yield. Earnings-call guidance and trends are encouraging (income and margin improvement), though risks around revenue softness, nonaccrual loan increases, and muted loan growth keep the score below the top tier.
Positive Factors
Core Deposit Growth
Strong core deposit growth enhances liquidity and funding stability, supporting long-term lending capacity and interest income generation.
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Consistent net interest margin expansion indicates effective asset-liability management, boosting profitability and competitive positioning.
Noninterest Income Growth
Robust noninterest income growth diversifies revenue streams, reducing reliance on interest income and enhancing financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue growth may signal challenges in market expansion or competitive pressures, potentially impacting long-term profitability.
Increase in Nonaccrual Loans
Rising nonaccrual loans can indicate credit quality issues, increasing risk and potentially leading to higher future credit costs.
Subdued Loan Growth
Subdued loan growth may limit future interest income potential, affecting the bank's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.95B
Dividend Yield3.69%
Average Volume (3M)5.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-1.94%
EPS Growth41.35%
CountryUS
Employees3,732
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding557,635,560
10 Day Avg. Volume7,510,456
30 Day Avg. Volume5,695,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.47
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio8.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.39Price Target Upside15.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.22B
Valley National Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionValley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. It operates through Commercial Lending, Consumer Lending, and Investment Management segments. The company offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. It also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services, such as standby and documentary letters of credit, and related products, as well as foreign exchange transactions, documentary collections, foreign wire transfers services, and transaction accounts for non-resident aliens. In addition, the company offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts and custom -tailored investment strategies for various retirement plans. Further, it provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as owns real estate related investments. Additionally, the company offers online, mobile, and telephone banking services; and overdraft, drive-in and night deposit, automated teller machine, remote deposit capture, and safe deposit facility services. As of December 31,2021, it operated 232 branch offices in New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Alabama. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyValley National Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, consumer loans, and mortgage loans, all of which contribute significantly to the bank's interest income. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through fees from services such as asset management, investment advisory, and transaction fees. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers that enhance its product offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall profitability.
Valley National Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operating momentum: record earnings, meaningful core deposit growth, expanding margins, improving credit metrics, and disciplined capital returns. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII +11–13%, mid-single-digit loan growth, expense control, and margin expansion of 15–20 bps) while acknowledging near-term seasonality, some episodic revenue items in 4Q, a few idiosyncratic credits, and sensitivity to the interest-rate path and competitive spreads. Overall, positives (profitability, funding improvement, loan pipeline, credit improvement, capital returns) materially outweigh the manageable near-term and idiosyncratic risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Strong Yearly Earnings
Reported net income of ~$195,000,000 in 4Q25 ($0.33 diluted EPS) and adjusted net income of $180,000,000 ($0.31 vs $0.28 prior year). Full-year 2025 net income was $598,000,000 (or $585,000,000 adjusted), reflecting material improvement versus 2024.
Improved Profitability Metrics and Margin Expansion
Adjusted return on average assets of 1.14% (highest since 2022). Net interest margin expanded to 3.17% in 4Q25 (above the 3.1% target), with net interest income up 4% quarter-over-quarter and 10% year-over-year. Management expects an additional 15–20 bps of NIM expansion from 4Q25 to 4Q26 and NII growth of 11–13% in 2026.
Core Deposit Growth and Funding Improvement
Core deposits grew nearly $4,000,000,000 year-over-year (≈9%) and rose about $1,500,000,000 in the quarter, enabling payoff of nearly $500,000,000 of maturing higher-cost brokered deposits. Noninterest deposits grew over 15% on an annualized basis; total deposit costs declined 24 bps sequentially.
Loan Growth and Robust Pipeline
Total loans grew roughly $800,000,000 (≈7% annualized) in the quarter. Immediate and late-stage loan pipelines increased by over $1,000,000,000 (nearly 70% YoY), driven by ~$600,000,000 increase in C&I and ~$700,000,000 increase in CRE. Management guides to mid-single-digit loan growth in 2026 with ~10% C&I growth.
Improving Credit Metrics
Quarterly net charge-offs were 18 bps of average loans; full-year 2025 net charge-offs were 24 bps vs 40 bps in 2024. Criticized and classified loans declined over $350,000,000 (≈8%) during the quarter, and management expects further normalization of credit costs in 2026.
Revenue Diversification and Fee Income Momentum
Noninterest income grew ~18% sequentially in 4Q25, with strong momentum from deposit service charges and wealth management. Management expects high single-digit fee income growth in 2026 (while noting some episodic items contributed to 4Q).
Disciplined Expense and Capital Deployment
Full-year operating expenses increased just 2.6% in 2025 versus 9% revenue growth; management expects low single-digit expense growth in 2026 and an efficiency ratio moving toward ~50%. Tangible book value rose nearly 3% in the quarter. The company repurchased 6,000,000 shares in 2025 (>$60,000,000 spent) and returned $109,000,000 of $188,000,000 4Q earnings to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
Negative Updates
Reliance on Episodic Fee Income Items
Fourth-quarter fee income benefited materially from abnormally high commercial loan swap activity and unrealized valuation gains on fintech equity investments that management warns may not recur, creating potential moderation in near-term fee growth.
Seasonal and Short-Term Headwinds for 1Q26
Management cautioned first-quarter softness due to lower day count, elevated payroll taxes, and likely moderation of late-quarter spikes in noninterest deposits and fee activity; NIM expected to dip from 3.17% in 1Q before recovering later in the year.
Idiosyncratic Asset Quality Items
Some upticks in problem loans were driven by a few specific credits: one larger C&I moved to nonaccrual and three loans drove the 30–59 day past-due increase (~$56,000,000). Allowance coverage declined modestly (2 bps) in the quarter as lower quantitative reserves offset higher specific and qualitative items.
Ongoing Need for Brokered and Wholesale Funding
Although core deposit replacement is progressing, material brokered and wholesale funding remains (management cited ~$1.2B of brokered deposits and $600M of FHLB advances maturing in 2026), so funding risk and FHLB/brokered reductions are still part of the transition plan.
Competitive Pressure on Loan Spreads
Management noted modest spread compression and competitive pressure in lending markets; guidance assumes some compression is already baked into NII and margin forecasts, representing execution risk if competition intensifies.
Sensitivity to Interest-Rate Path
Guidance assumes two rate cuts in 2026 and is sensitive to the yield curve; management noted that if there are no Fed cuts it could represent a modest headwind to NII, and the margin outlook depends on both front-end and longer-term curve dynamics.
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted mid‑single digit loan growth for 2026 (roughly 10% C&I, low‑single‑digit CRE, mid‑single‑digit consumer/residential), with deposit growth expected to outpace loans and further reduce the loan‑to‑deposit ratio; core deposits grew nearly $4.0B (≈9% YoY) in 2025 and rose about $1.5B in 4Q, noninterest deposits +15% annualized. They expect net interest income to grow 11–13% and net interest margin to expand ~15–20 bps from 4Q25 to 4Q26 (3.17% in 4Q25, a modest Q1 dip then back to mid‑3.30s by 4Q26), modeling two rate cuts and a 50% total deposit beta (4Q implied quarterly beta ~55%); spot deposit cost ~2.32% (core ~2.10%, brokered ~4.20%), new deposit originations blended ~2.17%. Fee income is expected to grow high single digits (quarterly fee income baseline mid‑to‑high $60M), operating expenses guided to low‑single‑digit growth with efficiency improving toward ~50%, and loan loss provision implied around $100M as allowance coverage is expected to be broadly stable while net charge‑offs normalize (2025 NCOs 24 bps YTD; 4Q25 18 bps). Capital guidance: CET1 targeted 10.5–11.0% (gross CET1 generation ~130–140 bps in 2026 with ~50 bps to loan growth, ~50 bps to dividends and ~30–40 bps for buybacks), Q4 generated ~38 bps CET1, and management indicated potential buyback capacity of roughly $150–$200M while maintaining capital targets.Valley National Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements are solid but mixed: profitability and operating efficiency look healthy (net margin 15.14%, EBITDA margin 20.11%), leverage appears prudent (debt-to-equity 0.44), and free cash flow growth improved (+41.48%). Offsetting this, revenue growth is declining (-5.48%) and operating cash flow has fallen versus prior periods, which caps the score.Income Statement
Valley National Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 5.48%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 47.65% and a net profit margin of 15.14%, indicating strong profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 17.94% and 20.11%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Despite the revenue decline, the company has managed to sustain its profitability, which is a positive sign.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, which is relatively low and indicates prudent leverage management. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 6.65%, showing moderate profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears strong given the total assets. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a well-managed capital structure with a focus on maintaining financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 41.48% in the TTM period, which is a positive development. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash from operations relative to its net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the decline in operating cash flow from previous periods is a concern that needs monitoring.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.49B | 3.57B | 3.35B | 2.18B | 1.49B | 1.57B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.53B | 1.83B | 1.81B | 1.33B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 683.87M | 517.35M | 761.54M | 860.11M | 691.70M | 612.33M |
| Net Income | 518.29M | 380.27M | 498.51M | 568.85M | 473.84M | 390.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 63.02B | 62.49B | 60.93B | 57.46B | 43.45B | 40.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.61B | 2.12B | 2.19B | 2.21B | 3.18B | 2.67B |
| Total Debt | 3.39B | 3.69B | 3.71B | 2.10B | 2.42B | 3.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 55.32B | 55.06B | 54.23B | 51.06B | 38.36B | 36.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.70B | 7.44B | 6.70B | 6.40B | 5.08B | 4.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 533.47M | 548.54M | 378.19M | 1.43B | 837.14M | 163.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 539.39M | 548.54M | 378.19M | 1.43B | 837.14M | 163.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -779.80M | -709.28M | -3.35B | -6.79B | -1.08B | -2.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 570.95M | 1.16B | 2.91B | 4.26B | 964.35M | 2.77B |
Valley National Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
12.46
Price Trends
11.72
Positive
11.16
Positive
10.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
59.26
Neutral
71.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.06, above the 50-day MA of 11.72, and above the 200-day MA of 10.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLY.
Valley National Bancorp Risk Analysis
Valley National Bancorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valley National Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valley National Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $6.59B | 25.09 | 6.92% | 2.89% | 8.73% | 26.19% | |
72 Outperform | $6.29B | 11.28 | 8.66% | 2.73% | 4.54% | 27.56% | |
71 Outperform | $5.67B | 12.03 | 11.20% | 2.85% | 1.43% | 19.58% | |
70 Outperform | $5.39B | 7.65 | 12.09% | 3.68% | 2.79% | 2.11% | |
69 Neutral | $6.95B | 12.54 | 7.85% | 3.69% | -1.94% | 41.35% | |
69 Neutral | $6.56B | 11.97 | 7.09% | 3.31% | 0.55% | 19.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
12.46
2.85
29.67%
OZK
Bank OZK
47.56
-0.20
-0.42%
FNB
F.N.B.
17.55
2.72
18.34%
GBCI
Glacier Bancorp
50.68
3.51
7.44%
HOMB
Home Bancshares
28.90
-0.20
-0.69%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
69.01
-6.93
-9.13%
Valley National Bancorp Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Valley National Bancorp Appoints Carlos Vazquez to Board
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Valley National Bancorp’s board appointed Carlos Vazquez as an independent director to serve until the next annual shareholders’ meeting, also naming him to its Audit and Compensation and Human Capital Management Committees, strengthening board oversight in key governance areas. Vazquez brings decades of financial services leadership, including serving as executive vice president and chief financial officer of Popular, Inc. from 2013 to 2024 and as a board member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, and will join Valley National’s non‑employee director compensation program, enhancing the board’s depth of banking, risk, and operational expertise without any disclosed related‑party conflicts.
The most recent analyst rating on (VLY) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valley National Bancorp stock, see the VLY Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.