Cracker Barrel (CBRL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $621.36M
• Dividend Yield: 3.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 131.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -1.61%
• EPS Growth: -58.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 77,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 22,351,023
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,395,582
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,153,755
• PEG Ratio: 2.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.30
• 1Y Price Target: $30.40
• Price Target Upside: 9.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.25B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-2.88% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held down primarily by weakening financial performance (margin compression into a loss and negative free cash flow) and an expensive earnings multiple. The earnings call adds some support due to restructuring actions and balance-sheet flexibility, while technicals are broadly neutral with the longer-term trend still weak.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet liquidity & covenant headroom

Reported senior-debt leverage at 0.3x with ample covenant headroom and $531.5M of debt provide durable financial flexibility. This low senior leverage and available liquidity reduce short-term refinancing risk, support near-term restructuring, and permit targeted investments or opportunistic debt retirements over the next several quarters.

Large loyalty program and improving guest metrics

A loyalty base >11M that accounts for over 40% of tracked sales is a structural asset for customer retention, targeted marketing, and higher repeat visitation. Sustained loyalty scale supports more efficient promotions, stabilizes revenues versus casual-dining peers, and helps recovery of traffic and retail attach over 2–6 months.

Executions on cost savings and lower capex

Concrete restructuring targets (G&A savings $20–25M) plus reduced advertising and lower capex alter the cost base and cash outlays. If realized, these actions can sustainably improve adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow over multiple quarters by lowering fixed corporate expenses and near-term cash requirements.

Negative Factors

Material margin compression and loss

Multi-year erosion of profitability—from EBITDA margins near 13% historically to ~2.7% TTM and a small net loss—indicates weakened unit economics. Persistent margin pressure constrains reinvestment, dividend capacity, and returns, making multi-quarter operational recovery and sustainable profitability a meaningful structural challenge.

Sustained traffic and comparable sales declines

Double-digit traffic declines and mid-single-digit comps materially reduce unit-level sales and retail attach. Even with pricing, sales deleverage increases labor and occupancy cost ratios, amplifying margin pressure. Recovery of foot traffic is structural and may take multiple quarters as consumer habits and competitive offers evolve.

Weakened cash generation and negative free cash flow

Operating cash flow has declined materially from prior years and FCF turned negative TTM, limiting internal funding for growth, store refreshes, or shareholder returns. This deterioration raises reliance on liquidity or financing and reduces margin for execution errors while management implements its turnaround.

Cracker Barrel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Cracker Barrel primarily makes money through (1) restaurant sales and (2) retail store sales generated at its co-located restaurant-and-store units. Restaurant revenue comes from guest dining occasions (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), with sales driven by menu pricing, guest traffic, and average check (including beverages and add-ons). Retail revenue comes from purchases made in the attached country stores, which sell gift and novelty items, seasonal décor, apparel, toys, and packaged foods/candies; retail performance is influenced by merchandising strategy, product assortment, and seasonal/holiday demand. The company’s earnings are supported by unit-level economics across its store base, including the ability to capture both a dining transaction and incremental retail basket from the same guest visit. Other meaningful factors that affect profitability include commodity and labor costs, pricing actions, promotional activity, and operational efficiency. Specific revenue splits, named partnerships, or franchise/royalty arrangements are not available here and are therefore null.

Cracker Barrel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance has weakened: TTM revenue declined, profitability moved to a small net loss, and EBITDA margin compressed to ~2.7%. Cash generation also deteriorated with free cash flow turning negative (TTM -$21M), while leverage is elevated versus the current earnings profile (debt-to-equity ~2.9x) and returns have fallen.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated materially versus prior years. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-2.2%) and the company moved to a small net loss with negative operating profit, while EBITDA margin compressed sharply to ~2.7% (down from ~5.5% in FY2025 and ~13.0% in FY2021). The main positive is that gross margin remains positive (~23.9% TTM), but the multi-year trend shows meaningful margin compression and weakening earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated for the current earnings profile. TTM debt-to-equity is ~2.9x (up from ~2.4x in FY2025 and ~1.6x in FY2021), indicating reduced balance-sheet flexibility. Equity remains positive and assets are relatively stable, but returns have fallen sharply (TTM return on equity ~3.7% versus ~10.0% in FY2025 and much higher in earlier years), reflecting weaker profitability against a still-levered capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened. TTM operating cash flow is positive ($123M) but materially lower than FY2025 ($219M) and FY2023 ($250M). Free cash flow turned negative TTM (-$21M) after being solidly positive in recent annual periods, indicating reduced capacity to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns without incremental financing. While cash flow remains positive at the operating line, the recent swing to negative free cash flow is a notable risk signal.

Breakdown	TTM	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.36B	3.48B	3.47B	3.44B	3.27B	2.82B
Gross Profit	852.16M	1.15B	1.11B	1.11B	1.07B	973.06M
EBITDA	123.23M	193.19M	169.60M	237.84M	269.31M	488.00M
Net Income	-4.01M	46.38M	40.93M	99.05M	131.88M	254.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.10B	2.16B	2.16B	2.22B	2.29B	2.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.57M	39.64M	12.04M	25.15M	45.10M	144.59M
Total Debt	1.15B	1.13B	1.20B	1.12B	1.20B	1.08B
Total Liabilities	1.68B	1.70B	1.72B	1.73B	1.78B	1.73B
Stockholders Equity	425.83M	461.69M	440.15M	483.82M	511.48M	663.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.31M	60.25M	40.69M	125.07M	108.15M	231.77M
Operating Cash Flow	123.04M	218.90M	168.98M	250.46M	205.25M	301.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-141.12M	-156.70M	-124.33M	-124.32M	-98.50M	78.33M
Financing Cash Flow	16.31M	-34.59M	-57.77M	-146.10M	-206.24M	-672.64M

Cracker Barrel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.52, below the 50-day MA of 31.04, and below the 200-day MA of 42.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBRL.

Cracker Barrel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NATH	73 Outperform	$411.61M	31.17	-182.42%	2.09%	7.81%	4.58%
CAKE	69 Neutral	$2.80B	15.71	37.06%	2.11%	4.90%	27.14%
EAT	64 Neutral	$6.10B	13.13	134.24%	―	23.18%	138.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PZZA	48 Neutral	$1.13B	42.31	-6.99%	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%
CBRL	45 Neutral	$621.36M	131.25	-0.90%	3.54%	-1.61%	-58.09%
GENK	41 Neutral	$54.67M	-6.37	-8.89%	1.27%	9.36%	-249.08%

Cracker Barrel Corporate Events

Cracker Barrel Highlights Turnaround Actions at 2026 ICR Conference

From January 12–14, 2026, Cracker Barrel management is meeting with investors at the 2026 ICR Conference, using a January 2026 investor presentation that highlights the company’s operational reset, balance sheet position, and guest-experience trends. The presentation outlines a suite of “decisive actions” aimed at returning performance to a positive trajectory, including back-of-house optimization, retraining, leadership changes, marketing and menu initiatives, and corporate cost-cutting and capital-spend reductions, all centered on improving food quality and the guest experience. Management emphasizes the growing importance of the Cracker Barrel Rewards loyalty program—now approaching 11 million members—as a key tool for delivering value and maintaining customer connection, and reports that key guest-satisfaction metrics and Google star ratings have improved year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to their best levels in several years. Financially, the company ended its first quarter of fiscal 2026 on October 31, 2025, with total debt of about $550 million and roughly $485 million in available liquidity, and in December 2025 it exercised an option under its credit agreement to shift from a total leverage covenant to a senior leverage covenant, effectively excluding convertible debt from the leverage test and leaving the senior leverage ratio at a low 0.3x versus a 3.0x cap, while planning to use its revolving credit facility to retire its remaining June 2026 convertible notes closer to maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBRL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cracker Barrel stock, see the CBRL Stock Forecast page.