Calix (CALX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 220.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 4.89%
• EPS Growth: 55.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,820
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 66,276,474
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,249,033
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,339,586
• PEG Ratio: -1.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 82.84
• 1Y Price Target: $75.00
• Price Target Upside: 38.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.13B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $55.00 ▲(1.61% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial stability (low leverage) and solid cash-flow momentum, reinforced by a positive earnings outlook with improving visibility (record RPO and sequential growth guidance). These positives are tempered by weak current technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a stretched valuation (very high P/E with no dividend yield provided).

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Very low debt-to-equity (~3% in 2025) and a sizable equity base ($859M vs. ~$1.06B assets) provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports opportunistic buybacks/capex, and allows the firm to invest through industry cycles without stressing liquidity.

Improving Cash Generation

Consistent eight-figure quarterly free cash flow and year-over-year FCF growth strengthen internal funding for R&D, platform rollouts, and buybacks. FCF has historically exceeded reported earnings, supporting earnings quality and reducing dependency on external financing for strategic initiatives.

Platform Adoption & Revenue Visibility

High RPO and rapid customer migrations indicate durable subscription and appliance revenue visibility. The platform-driven model (appliances + software + cloud) increases stickiness, supports recurring revenue, and, with partnerships like Google Cloud, strengthens competitive positioning over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Thin Profitability

Despite margin improvement at the gross level, operating and net margins are narrow, limiting internal reinvestment and buffering against cost shocks. Thin profitability constrains ability to scale sales/marketing investments without pressuring cash generation and makes returns sensitive to commodity or mix swings.

Transition & Investment-Driven Cost Pressure

Overlapping cloud (dual‑cloud) costs and stepped-up AI investment will elevate operating expenses and depress near-term margins. Even if temporary, these structural investments extend the timeline to reach target operating leverage and require sustained cash deployment, increasing execution risk.

Upmarket/BEAD Execution Risk

Pursuit of large carriers and international markets requires multi-year investment, longer sales cycles, and education of buyers. BEAD opportunity is sizable but may be offset by industry resource constraints, meaning revenue additivity could be delayed and capex intensity may pressure margins and free cash flow timing.

Calix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calix, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud and software platforms, and systems and services in the United States, rest of Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company's cloud and software platforms, and systems and services enable broadband service providers (BSPs) to provide a range of services. It provides Calix Cloud platform, a role-based analytics platform comprising Calix Marketing Cloud, Calix Support Cloud, and Calix Operations Cloud, which are configurable to display role-based insights and enable BSPs to anticipate and target new revenue-generating services and applications through mobile application. The company also offers EXOS, a carrier class premises operating system and fully integrated with its GigaSpire family of systems to be ready for deployment as a complete subscriber experience solutions for BSP's residential and business subscribers; and AXOS, a software platform to access edge of the network by its architecture and operations. It offers its products through its direct sales force and resellers. Calix, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Calix generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around its software and hardware products. The company sells access systems, including optical network terminals and fiber management solutions, which are critical for deploying high-speed broadband networks. In addition to hardware sales, Calix offers subscription-based software platforms that help operators manage their networks and enhance customer experience. These software solutions often involve recurring revenue models, providing a steady income stream. Significant partnerships with various telecommunications providers also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships facilitate the adoption of Calix's technology and solutions across a wider customer base, driving overall growth and sustained revenue.

Calix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance-sheet quality (very low leverage and sizable equity base) and improving cash generation (higher operating and free cash flow in 2025). The key offset is uneven income-statement performance—2024 revenue contraction followed by a modest 2025 rebound, with still-thin operating and net margins.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2020–2023, a sharp contraction in 2024 (-20.0%), then a return to growth in 2025 (+7.1%). Profitability is mixed—gross margin improved to ~56.8% in 2025, but operating and net margins remain thin (EBIT margin ~3.4%, net margin ~1.8%) after a loss year in 2024. Overall, the company shows resilience in recovering to profitability, but earnings power is currently modest and the growth trajectory is not yet consistently stable.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively financed with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.0%–3.6% across the period; ~3.0% in 2025) and a sizable equity base (2025 equity ~$859M vs. assets ~$1.06B). Returns on equity are positive again in 2025 (~2.1%) after turning negative in 2024, but remain well below earlier peaks (e.g., 2021). Key strength is financial flexibility and low balance-sheet risk; key weakness is that shareholder returns have recently been subdued.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened meaningfully in 2025, with operating cash flow ~$135M and free cash flow ~$116M, and free cash flow growth up ~35.2% year over year. Free cash flow has consistently exceeded reported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.48–0.86 historically; ~0.86 in 2025), supporting earnings quality and reinvestment capacity. The main caution is variability in cash conversion over time, suggesting some sensitivity to working-capital or operating swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	831.52M	1.04B	867.83M	679.39M
Gross Profit	568.32M	453.59M	518.32M	435.43M	356.59M
EBITDA	51.88M	-23.48M	42.22M	66.92M	88.07M
Net Income	17.88M	-29.75M	29.32M	41.01M	238.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.06B	939.27M	941.87M	884.84M	742.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	388.10M	297.09M	220.35M	241.72M	204.34M
Total Debt	25.51M	8.02M	11.56M	19.60M	20.70M
Total Liabilities	199.30M	158.33M	222.88M	205.27M	173.60M
Stockholders Equity	859.22M	780.94M	718.98M	679.57M	568.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	115.52M	50.35M	38.40M	13.12M	46.33M
Operating Cash Flow	134.95M	68.40M	56.25M	27.18M	56.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.37M	-109.53M	-6.25M	-24.08M	-110.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-28.43M	20.90M	-65.93M	25.06M	24.38M

Calix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 54.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CALX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.16, above the 50-day MA of 53.61, and below the 200-day MA of 55.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CALX.

Calix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CALX	68 Neutral	$3.48B	220.54	2.18%	―	4.89%	55.80%
GTM	66 Neutral	$2.01B	16.61	7.76%	―	1.47%	1077.70%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NCNO	59 Neutral	$1.88B	-84.70	-2.04%	―	12.14%	-19.29%
BLKB	56 Neutral	$2.37B	20.71	-78.53%	―	-1.17%	-597.89%
BL	53 Neutral	$2.21B	95.78	6.29%	―	7.36%	-40.62%
ASAN	46 Neutral	$1.80B	-7.99	-102.48%	―	9.47%	16.97%

Calix Corporate Events

Calix Expands Share Repurchase Authorization to Support Flexibility

On January 28, 2026, Calix, Inc. announced that its board of directors had increased the authorization under its stock repurchase program by an additional $125 million, supplementing the $109.3 million that remained authorized as of December 31, 2025, and bringing total potential repurchases to $425 million. The company said buybacks may be executed periodically through open market purchases, privately negotiated deals or other methods, subject to SEC rules, market conditions, and its capital allocation strategy, while emphasizing that it is not obligated to repurchase a specific amount of shares and may suspend or terminate the program at its discretion, underscoring flexible balance-sheet management and potential support for shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CALX) stock is a Buy with a $66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calix stock, see the CALX Stock Forecast page.

Calix Appoints John Durocher as Chief Operating Officer

On November 13, 2025, Calix, Inc. appointed John Durocher as Chief Operating Officer, effective November 16, 2025. Durocher, who joined Calix in 2023 as Chief Customer Officer, has a strong background in customer success and operational excellence from his previous roles at Salesforce and Accenture. His appointment is aimed at advancing Calix’s operational strategies and enhancing its position in the rapidly evolving broadband industry. Jonathan Lindsell will succeed Durocher as Chief Customer Officer, continuing to report to him. This leadership transition is expected to strengthen Calix’s mission of enabling customers to simplify their business and innovate, thereby growing value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CALX) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calix stock, see the CALX Stock Forecast page.