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Calix Inc (CALX)
NYSE:CALX

Calix (CALX) AI Stock Analysis

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Calix

(NYSE:CALX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(2.06%Upside)
Calix's overall stock score reflects a strong technical outlook and positive earnings call guidance, which are offset by financial and valuation concerns. The stable cash flow and strategic board appointment provide some balance, but profitability and valuation issues remain significant challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
CALX delivered strong results with revenue and EPS above consensus, showcasing the effectiveness of its software-centric model.
Market Position
Reduced competitive concerns and a renewed focus on fiber deployments uniquely position CALX to benefit from the rural fiber build.
Negative Factors
Market Concerns
A slowing/maturing end market remains a concern.
Stock Repurchase
Share repurchases were uninspiring, with only $7 million repurchased despite the stock trading down below $30 at one point.

Calix (CALX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Calix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCalix, Inc. is a provider of cloud and software platforms, systems, and services that focus on delivering broadband communications access solutions. The company operates primarily in the telecommunications sector, offering products and services that enable communications service providers (CSPs) to build and optimize networks, streamline operations, and enhance their offerings to end-users. Calix's core solutions are designed to facilitate the deployment of high-speed broadband services, enhance operational efficiency, and improve customer experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyCalix generates revenue through a combination of product sales and subscription-based services. Its primary revenue streams include the sale of its cloud and software platforms, such as the Calix Cloud, which offers analytics and management tools for broadband networks. Additionally, the company earns from hardware sales, including network access systems and modules that CSPs use to deliver high-speed internet services. Calix also provides professional services, training, and support for its platforms and systems, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with CSPs and technology vendors play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and driving sales. The company's revenue model is bolstered by long-term contracts and recurring revenue from its subscription services, providing a stable financial foundation.

Calix Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 59.13%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance by Calix in Q1 2025 with significant revenue growth and record gross margins. The company continues to innovate and expand its customer base. However, challenges related to a dynamic environment and potential costs from tariffs were noted. The positive achievements seem to outweigh the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue Growth
Calix reported Q1 2025 revenue of $220 million, representing a 7% sequential quarterly revenue growth.
Record Non-GAAP Gross Margin
The company achieved a record non-GAAP gross margin of 56.2% in Q1 2025.
RPO Growth
RPOs grew 4% sequentially to $340 million and increased 39% year-over-year.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Calix generated double-digit free cash flow for the eighth consecutive quarter and ended with $282 million in cash and investments after $40 million in share repurchases.
Expanded Customer Segments
The launch of SmartMDU in February added a new segment, Multi-Dwelling Units, to Calix's offerings.
Negative Updates
Dynamic Environment Challenges
The company faces a dynamic environment defined by demand, supply, and cost, which may affect costs and necessitate price adjustments.
Potential Tariff Impact
Calix anticipates potential cost impacts from tariffs, though the exact effects are difficult to forecast.
Company Guidance
During the Calix First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming quarter and the fiscal year. Calix reported strong first-quarter revenue of $220 million, marking a 7% sequential growth, and projected second-quarter revenue to be between $224 million and $227 million, representing a 2% sequential increase. The company's non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 56.2%, with expectations for continued margin improvement by 100 to 200 basis points for the full year. Calix also highlighted strong RPOs, which grew 4% sequentially to $340 million and 39% year-over-year, driven by their platform, cloud, and managed services model. The company maintained a positive outlook for 2025, anticipating ongoing demand growth due to inelastic broadband needs, while also planning to hold operating expenses flat to slightly up compared to 2024. Additionally, the Board approved a $100 million increase in the stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company's free cash flow generation and growth prospects.

Calix Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Calix has a strong balance sheet with no debt and a high equity ratio, but faces income challenges with declining revenues and negative profit margins. Cash flow generation remains solid, providing a cushion for the company. Improvement is needed in revenue and profit to enhance financial standing.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Calix's income statement reveals some concerning trends with declining revenue and profitability. The Gross Profit Margin for TTM is approximately 54.96%, which is relatively stable. However, the Net Profit Margin has turned negative to -4.2%, indicating losses in the current period. Revenue has been declining, with a TTM revenue of $825.45M compared to $831.52M in the previous annual report, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.73%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, showing operational challenges. The company needs to address its declining revenue and negative profit margins to improve its financial health.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Calix has a strong balance sheet characterized by no debt and a high equity ratio of 85.83% for TTM. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0, and the Return on Equity (ROE) is approximately -4.51%, indicating a loss-making period. The equity cushion provides stability, but operational losses have impacted the ROE negatively. The company maintains a robust financial position with significant cash reserves, which could support future strategic initiatives or cushion against operational setbacks.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
The cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with operating cash flow improving to $70.92M in TTM, up from $68.4M in the previous annual report. The Free Cash Flow has grown to $52.27M, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.82% from the prior period. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is positive, indicating effective cash generation relative to reported net losses. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is skewed due to the negative net income, highlighting the need to improve profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue825.45M831.52M1.04B867.83M679.39M541.24M
Gross Profit453.73M453.59M518.32M435.43M356.59M267.02M
EBITDA-28.13M-23.48M42.22M66.92M91.17M52.69M
Net Income-34.64M-29.75M29.32M41.01M238.38M33.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets917.12M939.27M941.87M884.84M742.03M427.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments282.31M297.09M220.35M241.72M204.34M133.79M
Total Debt7.04M8.02M11.56M12.39M12.38M12.95M
Total Liabilities149.95M158.33M222.88M205.27M173.60M147.03M
Stockholders Equity767.17M780.94M718.98M679.57M568.43M280.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow52.27M50.35M38.40M13.12M46.33M43.59M
Operating Cash Flow70.92M68.40M56.25M27.18M56.79M51.41M
Investing Cash Flow-101.82M-109.53M-6.25M-24.08M-110.66M-60.80M
Financing Cash Flow-15.31M20.90M-65.93M25.06M24.38M42.15M

Calix Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price52.91
Price Trends
50DMA
46.10
Positive
100DMA
40.82
Positive
200DMA
38.55
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.02
Negative
RSI
78.91
Negative
STOCH
89.65
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CALX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.27, above the 50-day MA of 46.10, and above the 200-day MA of 38.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CALX.

Calix Risk Analysis

Calix disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Calix Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.80B52.555.74%15.33%-47.04%
72
Outperform
$2.35B41.6913.48%1.30%22.10%-20.37%
68
Neutral
$3.43B-4.59%-18.75%-256.14%
61
Neutral
$2.32B494.290.71%3.34%
59
Neutral
$2.86B-18.35%44.54%41.55%
RNRNG
53
Neutral
$2.69B16.58%7.78%70.43%
49
Neutral
C$2.91B2.04-80.91%2.67%12.55%-24.32%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CALX
Calix
53.93
19.52
56.73%
FORM
Formfactor
36.18
-25.81
-41.64%
PRGS
Progress Software
54.45
-0.46
-0.84%
AMBA
Ambarella
67.32
9.26
15.95%
RNG
RingCentral
29.87
1.96
7.02%
VIAV
Viavi Solutions
10.44
3.38
47.88%

Calix Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Calix Mourns Loss of Chief Operations Officer
Negative
May 13, 2025

Calix announced the passing of its chief commercial operations officer, J. Matthew Collins, on May 7, 2025. Michael Weening, the company’s President and CEO, expressed deep regret and highlighted Collins’ significant impact on the company’s culture and customer relations over the past eight years, extending condolences to his family.

The most recent analyst rating on (CALX) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calix stock, see the CALX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Calix Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 9, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Calix, Inc. held its annual stockholders’ meeting where several key proposals were approved. The stockholders elected three Class III directors to the Board, approved an increase in shares under the 2019 Equity Incentive Award Plan, and ratified the selection of KPMG LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial strategies moving forward.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025