Blackbaud (BLKB)
NASDAQ:BLKB
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Blackbaud
(NASDAQ:BLKB)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven mainly by mixed financial performance (strong free cash flow and improved leverage offset by revenue pressure and earnings volatility). Technicals materially detract given the clear downtrend and negative momentum, while valuation is neutral at a ~20x P/E. The latest earnings call supports the rating with upbeat multi-year targets and 2026 guidance for higher EPS and free cash flow, tempered by near-term growth headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and close cash-to-income conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Over the next 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in product, repurchases and debt paydown without relying on volatile reported earnings, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline & earnings volatility
Large historical revenue swings and inconsistent net results weaken predictability of margins and returns. Over months ahead, volatile top-line performance complicates budgeting, cash conversion expectations and confidence in meeting multi-year targets if revenue momentum fails to stabilize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and close cash-to-income conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Over the next 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in product, repurchases and debt paydown without relying on volatile reported earnings, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk.
Read all positive factors
Blackbaud (BLKB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)357.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.3
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth-1.17%
EPS Growth-597.89%
CountryUS
Employees2,600
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.19
Shares Outstanding45,933,453
10 Day Avg. Volume372,241
30 Day Avg. Volume357,959
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.18
Price to Book (P/B)35.50
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio11.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.25Price Target Upside42.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.17B
Blackbaud Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blackbaud, Inc. provides cloud software solutions to higher education institutions, K12 schools, healthcare organizations, faith communities, arts and cultural organizations, foundations, companies, and individual change agents in the United Stat...
How the Company Makes Money
Blackbaud primarily makes money by selling software (largely delivered via cloud/SaaS) to social good organizations, typically under subscription arrangements that generate recurring revenue. A major revenue stream is fees from its fundraising, do...
Blackbaud Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlackbaud Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong financial results (organic revenue +5.5%, adjusted EBITDA margin +220 bps, EPS +12%, free cash flow beat), clear near-term guidance with improved EPS and free cash flow, aggressive capital return plans, and an articulated multi-year aspirational plan (revenue and EBITDA CAGRs and 40%+ margin target). Management signaled meaningful AI product innovation and internal productivity opportunities but conservatively excluded AI revenue from 2026 guidance and called out a larger renewal cohort and normalization of transactional revenue as near-term headwinds. On balance, the positives (robust 2025 results, constructive 2026 guidance, buybacks, deleveraging, and long-term targets) outweigh the listed lowlights and conservative assumptions.Positive Updates
Rule of 40 Achievement
Reached Rule of 40 status two years ahead of plan, signaling strong combined growth and profitability execution.
Negative Updates
2026 Growth Guidance Below 2025 Organic Growth
2026 organic revenue guidance of 4.0%–4.5% is below 2025 organic growth (5.5%), driven by expected normalization in transactional revenue and a large renewal cohort headwind.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Rule of 40 Achievement
Reached Rule of 40 status two years ahead of plan, signaling strong combined growth and profitability execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blackbaud's 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.173–$1.179 billion (organic growth 4.0–4.5%), non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $430–$438 million (implying 6–8% EBITDA dollar growth), non‑GAAP EPS of $5.15–$5.25 (16–18% YoY) and adjusted free cash flow of $280–$290 million; underlying assumptions include a 24.5% non‑GAAP effective tax rate, interest expense of $62–$66 million, ~45–46 million fully diluted shares, capex of $60–$70 million (including $52–$62 million capitalized software), and $6–$8 million of 2026 GCC-related costs excluded from non‑GAAP. The company assumes no material macro/Fx shifts, no viral giving and no meaningful AI product revenue or internal AI productivity gains in the guide, expects revenue to be back‑loaded into H2 with a tougher Q1/Q2 compare, notes a ~40% larger renewal cohort in 2026 that subtracts roughly 0.5–0.75 points from revenue growth, and highlights transactional revenue normalizing toward its historical ~8% trend. Looking longer term, Blackbaud targets 2026–2030 organic revenue CAGR of 4–6%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 6–8% with margin expansion to 40%+, a $285M 2026 midpoint implying ~25% CAGR in free cash flow since 2020, intends to deploy 50%+ of cumulative 2026–2030 FCF to repurchases, and is targeting non‑GAAP EPS CAGR of 13%+ through 2030.Blackbaud Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.16B | 1.11B | 1.06B | 927.74M |
| Gross Profit | 663.29M | 639.20M | 604.04M | 552.72M | 484.55M |
| EBITDA | 285.97M | 253.72M | 178.72M | 99.01M | 83.69M |
| Net Income | 114.97M | -283.17M | 1.82M | -45.41M | 5.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.39B | 2.50B | 2.91B | 2.99B | 2.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 758.98M | 67.63M | 31.25M | 31.69M | 55.15M |
| Total Debt | 1.12B | 1.11B | 826.45M | 903.96M | 1.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.31B | 2.35B | 2.10B | 2.25B | 2.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 85.05M | 141.99M | 808.71M | 744.03M | 717.06M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 257.78M | 288.52M | 135.51M | 132.83M | 161.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 265.55M | 295.97M | 199.63M | 203.89M | 213.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -74.94M | -73.41M | -64.39M | -85.55M | -471.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -247.40M | -139.35M | -142.97M | -25.69M | 264.11M |
Blackbaud Technical Analysis
Negative
39.36
Price Trends
49.27
Negative
55.08
Negative
59.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.31
Positive
22.75
Positive
13.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLKB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.69, below the 50-day MA of 49.27, and below the 200-day MA of 59.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.75 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLKB.
Blackbaud Risk Analysis
Blackbaud disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackbaud reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackbaud Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.03B | 83.96 | 10.50% | ― | 17.77% | -76.05% | |
66 Neutral | $1.81B | 26.41 | 7.96% | ― | 1.47% | 1077.70% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $1.47B | -12.84 | -94.12% | ― | 9.47% | 16.97% | |
56 Neutral | $1.81B | 26.26 | 146.36% | ― | -1.17% | -597.89% | |
54 Neutral | $2.24B | 168.71 | 6.57% | ― | 7.36% | -40.62% | |
46 Neutral | $2.17B | -19.67 | -26.59% | ― | 21.17% | -108.27% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.