Blackbaud (BLKB) AI Stock Analysis

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Blackbaud

(NASDAQ:BLKB)

46Neutral

Blackbaud's overall score reflects significant challenges in financial health due to high leverage and negative profitability. While the earnings call indicated positive operational strategies and growth initiatives, the technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution. The company's resilience in cash flows and strategic initiatives offer some optimism, but financial and market trends pose substantial risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

On an organic revenue basis, the business delivered a Rule-of-40 profile, which is its near-term target.

Market Demand

Management is confident the business is not seeing any disruptions in demand due to the macro or Federal budget scrutiny affecting its target end-markets.

Negative Factors

Competitive Performance

Shares could underperform its other vertical software peers that grow faster or generate higher free cash flow margins.

Earnings Guidance

The 1Q25 outperformance did not flow through as the 2025 guidance was reaffirmed, which could be interpreted as a guide down and could weigh on sentiment.

Revenue Streams

There could be some risk with its transactional revenue stream, as a significant portion of this revenue is generated through donations, which could be pulled back first in a recessionary backdrop.

Blackbaud (BLKB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.98B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)374.24K

Price to Earnings (P/E)78.5

Beta (1Y)0.72

Revenue Growth2.07%

EPS Growth-1519.89%

CountryUS

Employees2,600

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength67

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.96

Shares Outstanding48,517,704

10 Day Avg. Volume334,264

30 Day Avg. Volume374,241

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.63

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$72.60

Price Target Upside16.70% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering5

Blackbaud Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlackbaud, Inc. is a leading provider of software and services specifically designed for the social good community, including nonprofits, foundations, corporations, education institutions, healthcare organizations, and individual change agents. The company offers a comprehensive suite of cloud-based and on-premise solutions, such as fundraising and relationship management, financial management, marketing and engagement, payment services, and analytics, tailored to meet the unique needs of its clients in the social sector.

How the Company Makes MoneyBlackbaud makes money primarily through the sale of its software solutions and related services. The company's revenue streams include subscription fees for its cloud-based software offerings, which are typically delivered on a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model, and one-time license fees for on-premise software. Additionally, Blackbaud generates revenue from professional services such as implementation, training, and consulting, as well as from payment processing services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations, which help expand its reach and enhance its product offerings. Blackbaud's diverse client base in the social good sector contributes to its steady revenue growth and sustainability.

Blackbaud Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Annual Recurring Revenue by Type

Annual Recurring Revenue by Type
Measures the predictable income from subscription-based services, indicating the company's stability and potential for sustained growth.

Chart InsightsBlackbaud's contractual revenue showed consistent growth until a sharp decline in early 2025, possibly due to macroeconomic factors or strategic shifts. Meanwhile, transactional revenue has been volatile but generally rising, with recent overperformance. The earnings call highlights the company's strong financial performance and strategic innovations, despite challenges in forecasting transactional revenue. This suggests that while Blackbaud is innovating and maintaining growth, investors should be cautious of potential revenue volatility and macroeconomic impacts.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Blackbaud Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blackbaud's financial performance is hindered by negative EBIT and net income, modest revenue growth, and a high leverage ratio. Despite stable gross profit margins, the financial health is at risk due to operational inefficiencies and declining equity, though stable cash flows provide some resilience.

Income Statement

Negative

Blackbaud's income statement reveals a challenging financial scenario. The TTM data shows continued negative EBIT and net income, indicating ongoing operational challenges and a lack of profitability. While gross profit margin remains relatively stable, the significant decline in net profit margin due to sustained losses is concerning. Revenue growth has been modest but insufficient to offset the high operating costs and declining profit margins.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet indicates a precarious financial position with high leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerningly high, reflecting significant financial risk. Stockholders' equity has drastically declined, leading to a low equity ratio. The substantial liabilities compared to assets highlight potential liquidity risks. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a reasonable level of total assets, providing some stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement provides a mixed view. Operating cash flow remains positive and relatively stable, demonstrating some resilience in cash generation ability. However, the free cash flow has declined, and the ratio of operating cash flow to net income is distorted by the negative net income. The cash flow from investing and financing activities shows consistent outflows, indicating ongoing investments but also potential cash constraints.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.16B	1.11B	1.06B	927.74M	913.22M
	Gross Profit
639.20M	600.11M	552.72M	484.55M	485.15M
	EBIT
-270.51M	44.70M	-19.77M	24.91M	37.24M
	EBITDA
-115.16M	167.05M	88.12M	103.78M	127.81M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-283.17M	1.82M	-45.41M	5.70M	7.72M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
67.63M	31.25M	31.69M	55.15M	35.75M
	Total Assets
2.50B	2.91B	2.99B	2.97B	2.04B
	Total Debt
1.11B	819.75M	903.96M	1.01B	548.39M
	Net Debt
1.04B	788.50M	872.27M	954.42M	512.64M
	Total Liabilities
2.35B	2.10B	2.25B	2.25B	1.62B
	Stockholders Equity
141.99M	808.71M	744.03M	717.06M	426.15M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
288.52M	135.51M	132.83M	161.51M	76.11M
	Operating Cash Flow
295.97M	199.63M	203.89M	213.66M	147.96M
	Investing Cash Flow
-73.41M	-64.39M	-85.55M	-471.27M	-71.85M
	Financing Cash Flow
-139.35M	-142.97M	-25.69M	264.11M	-10.68M

Blackbaud Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price62.21

Price Trends

50DMA

63.13

Negative

100DMA

69.69

Negative

200DMA

75.78

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.38

Negative

RSI

48.40

Neutral

STOCH

34.63

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLKB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 62.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.79, below the 50-day MA of 63.13, and below the 200-day MA of 75.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BLKB.

Blackbaud Risk Analysis

Blackbaud disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackbaud reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Blackbaud Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CXM	72 Outperform	$1.97B	16.81	18.83%	―	8.74%	150.66%
BL	71 Outperform	$2.98B	21.18	45.56%	―	10.74%	200.08%
FRSH	70 Neutral	$4.34B	―	-6.85%	―	20.46%	39.37%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$10.78B	10.47	-6.71%	2.99%	7.58%	-12.08%
QTWO	59 Neutral	$5.02B	―	-7.98%	―	11.50%	42.50%
BLKB	46 Neutral	$2.98B	78.53	-101.31%	―	2.07%	-1519.89%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BLKB

Blackbaud

62.21

-16.39

-20.85%

QTWO

Q2 Holdings

79.31

16.98

27.24%

BlackLine

46.65

-13.78

-22.80%

CXM

Sprinklr

7.63

-5.19

-40.48%

FRSH

Freshworks

14.28

0.02

0.14%

Blackbaud Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -2.89%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a solid financial performance with notable achievements in innovation and strategic initiatives, despite facing some challenges in cash flow and revenue forecasting. Blackbaud's resilience and proactive measures position the company well for future growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Blackbaud reported a revenue of $271 million for Q1 2025, marking a 5.8% organic growth with a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.3% and a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.96. The company also achieved a Rule of 40 score of 40.1%.

Innovative Initiatives and Product Developments

Blackbaud showcased significant product innovation including AI integration to enhance grant-making processes and Expedited Giving which aims to reduce the lag time for employee donations to nonprofits.

Successful Share Buyback Program

In Q1 2025, Blackbaud repurchased approximately 4% of its outstanding shares, aligning with its plan of buying between 3% to 5% of outstanding shares in 2025.

Resilience in Challenging Times

Despite uncertainties, Blackbaud's solutions remain critical to customers, particularly in fundraising from individual donors, showing resilience through economic challenges.

Positive Market Reaction to Innovations

The recent Corporate Social Impact Summit in Dallas received positive feedback from executives, highlighting the impact of Blackbaud's innovations.

Negative Updates

Negative Free Cash Flow

Blackbaud reported an adjusted free cash flow of negative $11 million in Q1 2025, impacted by a one-time cash release payment associated with the Washington, D.C. office lease and increased interest expenses.

Challenges in Forecasting Transactional Revenue

Despite transactional revenue overperforming in Q1, the volatility and unpredictability of transactional events pose challenges in forecasting future revenue.

Company Guidance

During Blackbaud's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided various metrics and guidance, reflecting its solid financial performance and strategic direction. Blackbaud reported a revenue of $271 million, marking a 5.8% organic growth, accompanied by a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.3% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.96. The company achieved a Rule of 40 score of 40.1%, which aligns with its long-term goal of reaching a Rule of 45 by 2030. For the full year 2025, Blackbaud maintained its guidance, projecting revenue between $115 million and $1.125 billion, which signifies an organic growth range of 4.2% to 5.1%. The projected EBITDA margins range from 34.9% to 35.9%, with non-GAAP EPS expected to be between $4.16 and $4.35 per share. The company plans to continue stock repurchases between 3% and 5% of outstanding shares, having already repurchased approximately 4% in the first quarter. The guidance remains unchanged, assuming no significant macroeconomic shifts, and Blackbaud anticipates adjusted free cash flow for the year to be between $185 million and $195 million.

Blackbaud Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Blackbaud Announces Leadership Changes with New CFO

Neutral

Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Blackbaud announced leadership changes with Chad Anderson promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Anthony W. Boor, who transitioned to Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy. These changes aim to enhance Blackbaud’s financial operations and strategic development, with Anderson bringing extensive experience from his previous roles within the company and Boor focusing on long-term value and enterprise-wide strategies.

Spark’s Take on BLKB Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BLKB is a Neutral.

Blackbaud’s overall stock score reflects its solid cash flow and strategic initiatives, balanced by high leverage and valuation concerns. While technical indicators suggest caution, strong earnings guidance and innovation efforts provide a positive outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on BLKB stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes

Blackbaud Amends CEO Compensation Agreement

Neutral

Mar 13, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Blackbaud, Inc. amended its employment agreement with CEO Michael P. Gianoni to align his compensation with other executives, shifting his annual bonus to an equity-based award. The amendment also modifies severance terms, introducing a new COBRA reimbursement benefit and changing the conditions for equity award vesting upon termination due to death or disability, impacting the company’s executive compensation structure and potentially its financial planning.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.