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Peabody Energy Comm (BTU)
NYSE:BTU
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Peabody Energy Comm
(NYSE:BTU)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
â–²( 15.03% Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings
Peabody's 1Q EBITDA of $144m beat analyst estimates and VA consensus, showcasing a strong operational performance.
Financial Performance
Non-segmental operating EBITDA increased from a net negative to a net positive, indicating improved financial performance.
Production Growth
Seaborne met sales are anticipated to grow as Shoal Creek and CMJV return to full production, indicating potential for improved future performance.
Negative Factors
Acquisition Uncertainty
The Anglo Coal deal poses uncertainty as Peabody believes the Material Adverse Change clause has been triggered, impacting the transaction.
Financing Challenges
Securing long-term financing remains challenging for Peabody due to a significant fall in the company's share price and weakened high yield debt markets.
Pricing Environment
The lackluster pricing environment remains a headwind for Peabody.
Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.69B
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)4.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.2
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-7.42%
EPS Growth-26.06%
CountryUS
Employees5,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength46
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding121,600,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,415,434
30 Day Avg. Volume4,961,639
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio6.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.75Price Target Upside41.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Peabody Energy Comm Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPeabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is a leading global pure-play coal company, serving customers in more than 25 countries across six continents. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, and is involved in the mining, sale, and distribution of coal, which is primarily used for electricity generation and steel manufacturing. Peabody operates multiple coal mines located in the United States and Australia, providing a range of thermal and metallurgical coal products.
How the Company Makes MoneyPeabody Energy Corporation generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of coal. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of thermal coal, which is used for power generation, and metallurgical coal, which is used in steel production. Peabody operates several mining operations in the Powder River Basin, Illinois Basin, and Appalachian regions in the U.S., as well as in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. The company's revenue is influenced by coal prices, production volumes, and the demand from the electricity generation and steel manufacturing sectors. Significant partnerships with utility companies, industrial consumers, and international buyers also contribute to Peabody's earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in trading and brokerage activities related to its core products.
Peabody Energy Comm Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Peabody Energy has demonstrated strong financial management with a robust balance sheet, low debt levels, and effective cash flow handling. However, the declining revenue and profit margins highlight challenges in maintaining growth momentum.Income Statement
The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 11%, down from 31.6% in 2023. The net profit margin for TTM stands at 8.9%, a decrease from 15.4% in 2023. Revenue has decreased significantly from $4.95 billion in 2023 to $4.16 billion in TTM, indicating a negative growth rate. EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are lower compared to the previous year, showing reduced operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects strong equity and low leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.02, down from 0.11 in 2023, indicating minimal reliance on debt. The equity ratio is robust at 62.3%, showing strong shareholder equity in the asset base. Return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 10%, indicating reasonable profitability relative to equity.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates healthy cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is 8.1% from 2023 to TTM, reflecting positive cash management. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.1, demonstrating strong cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.0, indicating effective cash flow management against profitability.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 4.19B | 4.24B | 4.95B | 4.98B | 3.32B | 2.88B | Gross Profit |
| 715.60M | 815.80M | 1.56B | 1.69B | 765.20M | 356.20M | EBIT |
| 429.90M | 445.30M | 1.07B | 1.38B | 432.20M | -178.80M | EBITDA |
| 901.30M | 954.90M | 1.51B | 1.79B | 907.00M | -1.37B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 365.70M | 370.90M | 759.60M | 1.30B | 360.10M | -1.86B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.01B | 700.40M | 969.30M | 1.31B | 954.30M | 709.20M | Total Assets |
| 8.18B | 5.95B | 5.96B | 5.61B | 4.95B | 4.67B | Total Debt |
| 1.46B | 467.20M | 399.20M | 344.80M | 1.17B | 1.59B | Net Debt |
| 448.70M | -233.20M | -570.10M | -962.50M | 210.70M | 880.70M | Total Liabilities |
| 4.53B | 2.24B | 2.35B | 2.32B | 3.13B | 3.69B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.61B | 3.65B | 3.55B | 3.23B | 1.76B | 929.60M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 272.00M | 204.00M | 687.20M | 949.40M | 236.90M | -207.20M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 844.50M | 606.50M | 1.04B | 1.17B | 420.00M | -9.70M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -801.70M | -598.10M | -342.60M | -28.70M | -131.50M | -206.70M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -177.40M | -276.00M | -460.30M | -681.60M | -43.40M | 193.40M |
Peabody Energy Comm Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.91
Price Trends
13.20
Positive
14.93
Negative
19.36
Negative
Market Momentum
0.29
Positive
52.10
Neutral
18.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BTU, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.82, above the 50-day MA of 13.20, and below the 200-day MA of 19.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BTU.
Peabody Energy Comm Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.69B | 5.21 | 10.33% | 2.16% | -7.42% | -26.06% | |
80 Outperform | $3.38B | 12.36 | 14.71% | 10.64% | -8.53% | -53.44% | |
68 Neutral | $1.27B | 9.27 | 31.98% | 3.11% | -19.21% | -30.92% | |
62 Neutral | $487.21M | 43.10 | -0.08% | 4.55% | -10.23% | -100.04% | |
61 Neutral | $1.51B | 57.45 | 1.66% | 0.36% | -23.34% | -95.18% | |
59 Neutral | $2.38B | 22.50 | 5.20% | 0.71% | -21.04% | -75.78% | |
57 Neutral | $7.06B | 3.07 | -3.48% | 5.79% | 0.59% | -50.58% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
13.91
-9.40
-40.33%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.32
4.79
22.25%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
96.46
10.12
11.72%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
115.96
-193.77
-62.56%
METC
Ramaco Resources
9.07
-4.55
-33.41%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
45.29
-20.66
-31.33%
Peabody Energy Comm Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Peabody demonstrated strong cost management and financial performance despite market challenges. The company secured long-term agreements and maintained a solid financial position. However, uncertainties around the Anglo American acquisition and market weaknesses in the seaborne coal segments present notable challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Control Success
Peabody's team successfully managed costs below expectations in seaborne thermal, met coal, and U.S. thermal segments, despite market softness, contributing to the overall strong performance.
Centurion Mine Ahead of Schedule
The Centurion Mine is on budget and ahead of schedule with ramp-up of production slated for early next year. The operation is projected to have a low-cost structure and high realizations in the steelmaking coal universe.
U.S. Coal-Fired Generation Increase
Coal-fueled generation increased by 20% over the prior year, taking market share from natural gas and other energy sources, with increased demand driven by colder winter temperatures and rising electricity demand.
New Long-term Supply Agreement
Peabody signed an agreement with Associated Electric Cooperative to supply more than 50 million tons of Powder River Basin coal over a minimum of seven years, securing long-term demand.
Strong Financial Position
Peabody reported a net income of $34 million and adjusted EBITDA of $144 million in Q1 2025. The company held nearly $700 million of cash and over $1 billion of liquidity.
Negative Updates
Acquisition Challenges with Anglo American
Issues at Moranbah North Mine, including an inactive status after a gas ignition event, have created significant uncertainty around the acquisition of Anglo American's steelmaking coal assets.
Seaborne Thermal Coal Market Weakness
Thermal coal prices reached four-year lows in March due to weak winter demand in Asia, with production rationalization expected if prices remain low.
Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Market Struggles
The seaborne met coal market faced weak conditions at the start of the year, with a significant portion of production underwater at low prices, impacting sales and pricing.
Company Guidance
During Peabody's Q1 2025 earnings call, management provided guidance indicating a strong start to the year, with net income attributable to common stockholders reaching $34 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA amounting to $144 million. The company generated $30 million in free cash flow, despite $47 million in continued development at the Centurion Mine, which is on budget and ahead of schedule. Peabody's diversified global portfolio and robust balance sheet have enabled favorable cost performance across seaborne thermal, metallurgical, and U.S. thermal segments. The Seaborne Thermal segment recorded $84 million of adjusted EBITDA with 32% margins, while the U.S. thermal mines generated $69 million. The company anticipates increasing demand throughout 2025, with PRB costs expected to be between $12.50 and $13 per ton in Q2 and other U.S. thermal coal shipments rising to 3.3 million tons. Peabody remains focused on cost containment amid soft market prices and expects to maintain a strong performance through the second half of 2025.Peabody Energy Comm Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Peabody Energy Joins B. Riley Investor Conference
Positive
May 21, 2025
Peabody Energy Corporation announced its participation in the B. Riley Investor Conference starting May 21, 2025, where it plans to present its strategic focus and recent business developments. The company highlighted its record safety and environmental performance in 2024, with the lowest incident rate in its history and significant reclamation efforts. Peabody is capitalizing on favorable megatrends, expecting to grow its steelmaking coal Adjusted EBITDA significantly by 2026, driven by increased demand in Southeast Asia. The company is also advancing its Centurion Mine project, which is expected to transform its seaborne metallurgical coal segment with a longwall startup projected for Q1 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Peabody Energy Comm Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2025
On May 8, 2025, Peabody Energy Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all nine directors were elected for a one-year term. The meeting also saw the advisory approval of the executive officers’ compensation and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.
DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Peabody Energy Announces Quarterly Dividend Amid Strong Results
Positive
May 6, 2025
On May 6, 2025, Peabody Energy announced a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, payable on June 4, 2025. The company reported strong first-quarter results with a net income of $34.4 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $144 million, despite challenges from low seaborne coal prices. Peabody’s strategic moves, including a seven-year coal supply contract and participation in a White House event supporting coal industry revitalization, highlight its focus on maintaining favorable market positioning and operational efficiency.
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Peabody Energy Faces Acquisition Uncertainty Due to Mine Issues
Negative
May 5, 2025
On May 5, 2025, Peabody Energy Corporation announced a Material Adverse Change impacting its planned acquisition of steelmaking coal assets from Anglo American Plc. The change is due to issues at the Moranbah North Mine, which has been inactive since a gas ignition event on March 31, 2025. This situation has created significant uncertainty around the transaction, and if unresolved, Peabody may terminate the acquisition agreements.
Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Peabody Energy Reviews Acquisition Plans After Mine Incident
Negative
Apr 8, 2025
Peabody Energy Corporation announced a review of its acquisition plans for Anglo American Plc’s steelmaking coal assets following an ignition event at the Moranbah North Mine. The company is in discussions with Anglo American to assess the impact of this event and is preserving its rights under the purchase agreements. Peabody has also disclosed certain financial information to potential investors to facilitate financing discussions related to the acquisition.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.