Peabody Energy Comm (BTU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.84B
• Dividend Yield: 0.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: -7.21%
• EPS Growth: -106.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,600
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 121,747,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,210,861
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,797,075
• PEG Ratio: 0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.40
• 1Y Price Target: $39.60
• Price Target Upside: 25.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.54B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(10.97% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

BTU scores in the low-60s primarily because strong balance-sheet strength and solid cash flow offset a meaningful deterioration in profitability. The earnings call supports a recovery thesis (Centurion ramp, improving met realizations, and shareholder-return focus), while technicals are only modestly supportive and valuation is constrained by losses and a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Very low leverage and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest risks, supports capital allocation (capex, development, dividends/buybacks) through coal cycles, and makes the company resilient to temporary commodity swings over the next 2–6 months.

Centurion mine: long-life, high NPV asset

Centurion is a structurally important, long-life metallurgical asset with significant NPV and multi-decade reserves. Its ramp increases exposure to premium coking coal, improving long-term revenue mix and pricing capture, and underpins medium-term cash flow visibility as volumes scale over several years.

Consistent cash generation from thermal platforms

Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide a durable funding base for development, sustaining capex, and shareholder returns. Strong thermal segment cash conversion (multi-year net cash) cushions earnings volatility and supports execution of strategic projects.

Negative Factors

Deteriorated profitability and compressed margins

Material margin compression and a TTM net loss indicate weaker pricing and/or higher unit costs that erode return on capital. Persistent weaker profitability reduces internally generated funds for growth or distributions and increases sensitivity to any adverse commodity or cost shocks over the medium term.

Sustained development capex for Centurion

Multi-year development spending materially delays full free-cash-flow benefits from Centurion. Ongoing capex absorbs cash, elevates execution and funding risk, and can compress near-term returns if volumes or realizations fall short during the ramp period.

Market and policy uncertainty in seaborne markets

Regulatory actions and geopolitical moves can sharply alter seaborne supply/demand and pricing. Such uncertainty makes revenue and realization forecasts less reliable, raising downside risk to cash flow and project economics if export prices or demand shift unfavorably.

Peabody Energy Comm Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Peabody Energy Corporation engages in coal mining business in the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, South Korea, and internationally. The company operates through Seaborne Thermal Mining, Seaborne Metallurgical Mining, Powder River Basin Mining, and Other U.S. Thermal Mining segments. It is involved in mining, preparation, and sale of thermal coal primarily to electric utilities; mining bituminous and sub-bituminous coal deposits; and mining metallurgical coal, such as hard coking coal, semi-hard coking coal, semi-soft coking coal, and pulverized coal injection coal. The company supplies coal primarily to electricity generators, industrial facilities, and steel manufacturers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned interests in 17 coal mining operations located in the United States and Australia; and had approximately 2.5 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves and approximately 450,000 acres of surface property through ownership and lease agreements. The company also engages in direct and brokered trading of coal and freight-related contracts, as well as provides transportation-related services. Peabody Energy Corporation was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Peabody Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of coal products, which are divided into thermal coal for electricity generation and metallurgical coal for steel production. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuating coal prices. Key revenue streams include sales from its U.S. operations, particularly in the Powder River Basin and the Illinois Basin, as well as its Australian operations. Additionally, Peabody has established significant partnerships with utilities and steel manufacturers, which provide a steady demand for its coal. Factors contributing to its earnings include global coal demand, pricing dynamics in energy markets, and regulatory environments affecting coal usage. Peabody also focuses on cost management and operational efficiencies to enhance profitability.

Peabody Energy Comm Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are mixed: profitability weakened materially (TTM net loss and sharp margin compression), but the balance sheet is a major strength with very low leverage, and cash generation remains solid (positive operating cash flow and free cash flow).

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue declined to $3.86B (down ~2.5%), and the company swung to a net loss (-$52.9M) after solid profitability in 2021–2024 (net margin peaked in 2022 at ~26%). Margins have compressed sharply versus 2022–2024 (TTM gross margin ~11% vs ~19% in 2024 and ~34% in 2022), indicating weaker pricing and/or higher costs. A key positive is that cash earnings remain positive (TTM EBITDA $401M, ~11% margin), suggesting the downturn is painful but not a full operational collapse.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is very low in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with total debt of ~$88M against ~$3.58B of equity (debt-to-equity ~0.02), a dramatic improvement from 2020–2021 when leverage was much higher. Asset and equity levels have remained relatively stable (TTM assets ~$5.81B; equity ~$3.58B), providing financial flexibility. The main weakness is returns: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) return on equity is slightly negative due to the net loss, versus strong positive returns in 2021–2024.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains solid despite the earnings downturn: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is $645M and free cash flow is $223M (both positive), and free cash flow jumped sharply versus the prior period (growth ~155%). However, cash flow quality vs earnings is mixed: cash flow is positive while net income is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and free cash flow is modest relative to operating cash flow (suggesting heavier spending or working-capital swings). Overall, liquidity looks healthy, but cash conversion and volatility through the cycle remain key watch items in coal.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.86B	4.24B	4.95B	4.98B	3.32B
Gross Profit	105.60M	815.80M	1.56B	1.69B	765.20M
EBITDA	431.40M	954.90M	1.51B	1.79B	907.00M
Net Income	-52.90M	370.90M	759.60M	1.30B	360.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.81B	5.95B	5.96B	5.61B	4.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	575.30M	700.40M	969.30M	1.31B	954.30M
Total Debt	511.40M	467.20M	399.20M	361.60M	1.18B
Total Liabilities	2.23B	2.24B	2.35B	2.32B	3.13B
Stockholders Equity	3.54B	3.65B	3.55B	3.23B	1.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	528.30M	204.00M	687.20M	949.40M	236.90M
Operating Cash Flow	949.70M	606.50M	1.04B	1.17B	420.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-964.40M	-598.10M	-342.60M	-28.70M	-131.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-83.40M	-276.00M	-460.30M	-681.60M	-43.40M

Peabody Energy Comm Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 31.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BTU, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.35, below the 50-day MA of 33.58, and above the 200-day MA of 24.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BTU.

Peabody Energy Comm Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.41B	10.93	16.80%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTU	62 Neutral	$3.84B	-70.42	-1.47%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
HCC	60 Neutral	$4.38B	76.82	2.69%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
CNR	60 Neutral	$4.18B	-27.24	-5.84%	0.45%	64.05%	-103.03%
AMR	56 Neutral	$2.09B	-45.58	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
METC	48 Neutral	$964.69M	-16.54	-12.16%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Peabody Energy Comm Corporate Events

Peabody Highlights Strategy and Market Outlook at BMO Conference

Peabody Energy representatives will present at the BMO Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference running from February 23 to 25, 2026, outlining the company’s strategic focus, business developments, and market trends, with supporting slides tied to its 2025 financial and operating performance. The materials highlight a record year for safety and environmental performance in 2025, strong coal demand across seaborne metallurgical and thermal markets, the early start and planned volume ramp-up of the Centurion mine longwall in 2026, expansion of low-cost Australian thermal exports, and tightening U.S. coal fundamentals driven by higher power demand, energy policy and AI-related data center growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Peabody Energy Reports Weaker Earnings but Advances Energy Initiatives

On February 5, 2026, Peabody reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common stockholders fell to $10.4 million from $30.6 million a year earlier, as full-year 2025 revenue declined to $3.86 billion and the company swung to a net loss of $52.9 million amid sharply lower seaborne coal prices and reduced Adjusted EBITDA. Despite weaker earnings, Peabody said 2025 operational metrics generally met or exceeded guidance, highlighted record-low safety incident rates, strong environmental reclamation, and better-than-expected seaborne thermal volumes and margins, while advancing strategic initiatives including the early start-up of the Centurion longwall to boost premium hard coking coal output, projects to tap rare earth and critical mineral potential and mine-gas power, and development of 3 GW of renewables on former mine sites, moves that could reinforce its position across both traditional coal and emerging energy-related opportunities; the board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share payable on March 10, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 23, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.

Peabody Energy Extends CEO James Grech’s Tenure and Role

Peabody Energy Corporation announced that its president and chief executive officer, James C. Grech, who is approaching retirement eligibility, will remain as CEO and a member of the board until May 15, 2028, under a Transition and Consulting Agreement effective December 17, 2025, after which he will serve in an advisory role until May 15, 2030. The agreement provides for continued salary, incentives, and benefits through the transition date, extended vesting of long-term incentive awards through the consulting period, and an annual consulting fee of $1.5 million, reflecting the board’s intent to retain Grech’s expertise for a smooth leadership transition and indicating that the move is part of planned succession rather than any disagreement over company operations or policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTU) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Peabody Energy Comm stock, see the BTU Stock Forecast page.