Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
NASDAQ:ARLP
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Alliance Resource
(NASDAQ:ARLP)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(35.08% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (healthy leverage, strong historical profitability, and positive free cash flow). Valuation adds support through a low P/E and high yield, while technicals are moderately constructive. The main offsets are a post-peak earnings/revenue downtrend and earnings-call risks around lower realized pricing, Appalachia/Metiqui uncertainty, and higher near-term costs and capex.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet and leverage
Alliance’s materially lower leverage and historically strong ROE give it durable financial flexibility. That balance-sheet strength supports funding higher contracted volumes, sustaining distributions, absorbing coal-cycle volatility, and executing capex without immediate refinancing stress over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings downtrend
A multi-year rollback from 2022–2023 peaks signals structural normalization and higher earnings volatility. Sustained revenue and net‑income declines could compress margins, reduce distributable cash flow, and pressure returns if coal-market weakness or contract price roll‑offs persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved balance sheet and leverage
Alliance’s materially lower leverage and historically strong ROE give it durable financial flexibility. That balance-sheet strength supports funding higher contracted volumes, sustaining distributions, absorbing coal-cycle volatility, and executing capex without immediate refinancing stress over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Alliance Resource (ARLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.68B
Dividend Yield11.05%
Average Volume (3M)424.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-9.45%
EPS Growth-46.37%
CountryUS
Employees3,653
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.64
Shares Outstanding128,658,800
10 Day Avg. Volume337,868
30 Day Avg. Volume424,859
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.76
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio<0.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.00Price Target Upside35.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.23B
Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appal...
How the Company Makes Money
ARLP primarily makes money from selling coal produced from its mining operations. Revenue is generated under multi-year coal supply contracts and spot sales to customers such as electric utilities and industrial users; pricing and volumes depend o...
Alliance Resource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial trajectory: materially higher adjusted EBITDA and net income, record production at Hamilton, strong royalty growth, improved leverage and liquidity, and robust contracting for 2026 (93% committed). Offsetting items include a year-over-year revenue decline, lower realized coal prices, regional operational disruptions in Appalachia (notably at Metiqui and Tunnel Ridge), a digital asset fair value loss, and near-term cost/headwind expectations for Q1 2026 and higher planned capex. Management’s guidance and high contracted volumes, together with a strong balance sheet, suggest the positive items meaningfully outweigh the challenges, though specific Appalachia risks and the Metiqui customer loss are material near-term concerns.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $191.1 million in the quarter, up 54.1% year-over-year and up 2.8% sequentially. Net income attributable to ARLP was $82.7 million, or $0.64 per unit, versus $16.3 million, or $0.12 per unit, in the prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline
Total revenues fell to $535.5 million in the quarter from $590.1 million in the prior-year quarter, driven primarily by lower coal sales and transportation revenues.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $191.1 million in the quarter, up 54.1% year-over-year and up 2.8% sequentially. Net income attributable to ARLP was $82.7 million, or $0.64 per unit, versus $16.3 million, or $0.12 per unit, in the prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alliance's initial 2026 guidance calls for total coal sales of 33.75–35.25 million tons (with >93% of expected volumes already committed/priced at the midpoint), implying a 0.75–2.25 million‑ton increase across the Illinois Basin and Tunnel Ridge versus 2025 and average realized coal pricing roughly 3–6% below Q4 2025. Regional guidance: Illinois Basin sales price $50–$52/ton (vs $52.09 in 2025) with segment adjusted EBITDA expense $33–$35/ton (vs $34.71 in 2025); Appalachia $66–$71/ton (vs $81.99 in 2025) with segment adjusted EBITDA expense $49–$53/ton (vs $63.82 in 2025); Q1 segment adjusted EBITDA expense/ton is expected to be 6–10% higher than Q4 2025 due to an extended longwall move. Coal royalty tons sold are expected to be ~6.0 million tons higher (about +25% at the midpoint), oil & gas royalty volumes are guided to 1.5–1.6 million barrels of oil, 6.3–6.7 million cf of gas and 825–875k barrels of NGLs (with royalty segment adjusted EBITDA ≈14% of royalty revenues), full‑year capital expenditures $280–$300 million, and maintenance capex assumed $7.23/ton produced (vs $7.28/ton in 2025).Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
79
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.45B | 2.57B | 2.42B | 1.57B |
| Gross Profit | 468.42M | 507.48M | 751.49M | 741.20M | 289.36M |
| EBITDA | 675.19M | 702.17M | 948.52M | 956.14M | 483.47M |
| Net Income | 311.16M | 360.86M | 630.12M | 586.20M | 182.77M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.85B | 2.92B | 2.79B | 2.73B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.21M | 136.96M | 59.81M | 296.02M | 122.40M |
| Total Debt | 479.96M | 486.80M | 350.82M | 434.31M | 450.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 993.57M | 1.06B | 929.83M | 1.02B | 933.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.84B | 1.83B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 387.86B | 374.39M | 362.08M | 515.96M | 272.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 651.14B | 803.13M | 830.64M | 802.35M | 426.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -331.25B | -440.66M | -559.73M | -403.34M | -143.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -385.73B | -285.32M | -507.12M | -225.39M | -215.69M |
Alliance Resource Technical Analysis
Positive
24.43
Price Trends
25.67
Positive
24.50
Positive
24.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.71
Negative
71.77
Negative
62.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.30, below the 50-day MA of 25.67, and above the 200-day MA of 24.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARLP.
Alliance Resource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.66B | 10.38 | 22.94% | 4.05% | -14.79% | -17.10% | |
77 Outperform | $3.68B | 9.58 | 17.15% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
66 Neutral | $2.78B | -42.11 | -3.88% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $4.59B | -68.38 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
60 Neutral | $5.09B | 81.30 | 2.71% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
49 Neutral | $903.36M | -18.74 | -12.01% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Energy Sector Average
ARLP
Alliance Resource
28.60
4.58
19.08%
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125.00
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20.78%
AMR
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METC
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13.92
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76.78%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
96.83
48.18
99.04%
BTU
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37.68
23.83
171.96%
Alliance Resource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alliance Resource Expands Coal Reserves in Related-Party Deal
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Alliance Resource Properties, LLC completed the purchase of coal reserves and associated surface rights in Ohio County, West Virginia and Washington County, Pennsylvania from The Joseph W. Craft III Foundation and The Kathleen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.