Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
NASDAQ:ARLP
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Alliance Resource
(NASDAQ:ARLP)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(14.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (strong cash generation and low leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). These positives are tempered by weakening growth/earnings trends, soft near-term technical momentum, and mixed earnings-call takeaways (strong contracting and raised royalty volumes vs weaker coal pricing, impairment impacts, and thin distribution coverage).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & conservative balance sheet
ARLP generates substantial operating cash (TTM ~ $611M) and positive free cash flow (~$339M), while maintaining modest leverage and sizable equity. This durable cash conversion supports distributions, capital spending, and optionality in downturns, providing long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue and earnings downshift
Revenue and EPS have meaningfully downshifted versus prior peaks, signaling reduced earnings power. Persistently lower top-line trends compress margins and ROE over time, limiting distributable cash growth and necessitating efficiency or portfolio shifts to restore long-term profitability.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & conservative balance sheet
ARLP generates substantial operating cash (TTM ~ $611M) and positive free cash flow (~$339M), while maintaining modest leverage and sizable equity. This durable cash conversion supports distributions, capital spending, and optionality in downturns, providing long-term financial flexibility.
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Alliance Resource (ARLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.38B
Dividend Yield11.05%
Average Volume (3M)343.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)97.7
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth-7.15%
EPS Growth-10.80%
CountryUS
Employees3,653
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.91
Shares Outstanding128,658,800
10 Day Avg. Volume354,178
30 Day Avg. Volume343,001
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.76
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio7.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.00Price Target Upside35.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.21B
Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appal...
How the Company Makes Money
ARLP primarily makes money from selling coal produced from its mining operations. Revenue is generated under multi-year coal supply contracts and spot sales to customers such as electric utilities and industrial users; pricing and volumes depend o...
Alliance Resource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of strong portfolio-level positives — notably a record oil & gas royalty quarter, healthy royalty revenue growth, operational productivity gains (Tunnel Ridge, Riverview/Henderson), substantial contracting (2.6M tons) and a strong liquidity/leverage profile — that largely offset weaker coal pricing, lower total revenues, production disruptions, and a significant Metiki impairment that materially reduced net income. Management maintained guidance ranges for coal while raising oil & gas volume expectations and emphasized recovery of weather-delayed shipments, disciplined capital allocation, and a desire to rebuild distribution coverage before share buybacks or distribution increases.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Beat Internal Expectations
Adjusted EBITDA of $155.0M for Q1 2026 exceeded internal expectations, driven primarily by record BOE volumes and higher commodity prices that boosted oil & gas royalty revenues; note: adjusted EBITDA was down 3.1% year-over-year and down 18.9% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Net Income
Net income attributable to the partnership was $9.1M ($0.07/unit) in Q1 2026, down sharply from $74M ($0.57/unit) in Q1 2025 — driven by lower coal sales revenue, higher depreciation, an $11.6M decrease in digital asset fair value, and a $37.8M noncash asset impairment at Metiki.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Beat Internal Expectations
Adjusted EBITDA of $155.0M for Q1 2026 exceeded internal expectations, driven primarily by record BOE volumes and higher commodity prices that boosted oil & gas royalty revenues; note: adjusted EBITDA was down 3.1% year-over-year and down 18.9% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained its overall 2026 guidance for coal sales volumes, coal sales price, and segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton, noted planned longwall moves will be completed in the upcoming quarter with no additional longwall moves expected until 2027 (improving operational visibility), and disclosed they added 2.6 million net contracted tons for 2026–2027 such that 2026 coal sales are now more than 95% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance (the remaining open position is concentrated in H2 and dependent on summer burn and customer requirements). They also raised Oil & Gas Royalty volume guidance by roughly 5% and now estimate 1.6–1.7 million barrels of oil, 6.6–7.0 million MCF of natural gas, and 875,000–925,000 barrels of NGLs for 2026; Q1 delivered a record 1.0 million BOE and management said realized BOE prices should be higher than last year if current strip pricing holds, supporting stronger segment adjusted EBITDA.Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.17B | 2.19B | 2.45B | 2.57B | 2.42B | 1.57B |
| Gross Profit | 519.62M | 468.42M | 507.48M | 751.49M | 741.20M | 289.36M |
| EBITDA | 622.58M | 675.19M | 702.17M | 948.52M | 956.14M | 483.47M |
| Net Income | 246.27M | 311.16M | 360.86M | 630.12M | 586.20M | 182.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.86B | 2.85B | 2.92B | 2.79B | 2.73B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.08M | 71.21M | 136.96M | 59.81M | 296.02M | 122.40M |
| Total Debt | 507.79M | 479.96M | 486.80M | 350.82M | 434.31M | 450.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.07B | 993.57M | 1.06B | 929.83M | 1.02B | 933.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.84B | 1.83B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 338.76M | 387.86M | 374.39M | 362.08M | 515.96M | 272.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 610.96M | 651.14M | 803.13M | 830.64M | 802.35M | 426.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -346.02M | -331.25M | -440.66M | -559.73M | -403.34M | -143.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -317.44M | -385.73M | -285.32M | -507.12M | -225.39M | -215.69M |
Alliance Resource Technical Analysis
Negative
24.43
Price Trends
26.78
Negative
25.10
Negative
24.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.43
Positive
29.87
Positive
10.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.33, below the 50-day MA of 26.78, and above the 200-day MA of 24.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.87 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARLP.
Alliance Resource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.57B | 11.41 | 22.94% | 4.05% | -17.42% | -13.02% | |
67 Neutral | $3.38B | 97.70 | 13.66% | 11.05% | -7.15% | -10.80% | |
66 Neutral | $2.36B | -37.23 | -3.88% | ― | -27.99% | -132.90% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $4.44B | 16.97 | 2.71% | 0.36% | 11.32% | 29.65% | |
57 Neutral | $3.23B | 86.39 | -1.49% | 0.96% | -7.14% | -114.71% | |
50 Neutral | $925.93M | -16.39 | -12.01% | 2.83% | -19.46% | -544.58% |
* Energy Sector Average
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.30
1.82
7.43%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
118.58
22.89
23.92%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
184.87
59.04
46.92%
METC
Ramaco Resources
14.49
5.33
58.12%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
84.02
38.37
84.06%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
26.52
12.39
87.67%
Alliance Resource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alliance Resource Expands Coal Reserves in Related-Party Deal
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Alliance Resource Properties, LLC completed the purchase of coal reserves and associated surface rights in Ohio County, West Virginia and Washington County, Pennsylvania from The Joseph W. Craft III Foundation and The Kathleen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.