Alliance Resource (ARLP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.47B
• Dividend Yield: 11.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 462.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -9.45%
• EPS Growth: -46.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,653
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 128,658,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 389,250
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 462,148
• PEG Ratio: -0.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: <0.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.77
• 1Y Price Target: $33.00
• Price Target Upside: 35.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.23B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(22.80% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (healthy leverage, strong historical profitability, and positive free cash flow). Valuation adds support through a low P/E and high yield, while technicals are moderately constructive. The main offsets are a post-peak earnings/revenue downtrend and earnings-call risks around lower realized pricing, Appalachia/Metiqui uncertainty, and higher near-term costs and capex.

Positive Factors

Improved Balance Sheet

Alliance has materially lowered leverage vs 2020, with stable absolute debt and a much larger equity base. That stronger capital structure increases financial flexibility to fund capex, endure commodity cycles, and maintain distributions without forcing distress-driven asset sales.

Consistent Cash Generation & Coverage

Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow across recent years have supported distributions and deleveraging. A coverage ratio above 1x and meaningful quarterly FCF provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex and return of capital, insulating the business through cycles.

Growing Royalty & Resource Diversification

Expanding royalty income and targeted oil & gas mineral buys diversify cash flows away from pure coal price exposure. Higher BOE volumes and recent Permian-related purchases create recurring, lower-capex cash streams that improve long-term earnings stability and lower overall commodity concentration risk.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Earnings Downtrend

A clear downtrend in revenue and profits since the 2022–2023 peak signals elevated cyclicality and potential normalization. If lower realized prices and volumes persist, margins and ROE could compress, challenging distribution sustainability and making returns more volatile over the medium term.

Appalachia Operational & Customer Risk

Concentrated customer dependence and Appalachia operational disruptions (longwall moves, outages) create structural volume and cash-flow risk. Loss or prolonged underperformance of key customers can materially lower segment EBITDA and weaken contractual coverage, affecting long-term cash visibility.

Related-Party Reserve Acquisition Governance

The related-party reserve purchase expands resources but raises governance and conflict-of-interest perception risks. Recurrent related-party transactions can strain minority unitholder trust and complicate capital-allocation credibility, a durable governance overhang unless offset by clear independent oversight.

Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties. It produces a range of thermal and metallurgical coal with sulfur and heat contents. The company operates seven underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition, it leases land and operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana; and buys and resells coal, as well as owns mineral and royalty interests in approximately 1.5 million gross acres of oil and gas producing regions primarily in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. Further, the company offers various mining technology products and services, including data network, communication and tracking systems, mining proximity detection systems, industrial collision avoidance systems, and data and analytics software. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 547.1 million tons of proven and probable coal mineral reserves, as well as 1.17 billion tons of measured, indicated, and inferred coal mineral resources in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Alliance Resource generates revenue primarily through the sale of coal, which is its core product. The company operates several mining complexes, producing millions of tons of coal annually, which it sells to a variety of customers in both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major utility companies, spot market sales, and export sales. Additionally, ARLP benefits from price fluctuations in the coal market, allowing it to capitalize on higher prices during periods of increased demand. The company may also engage in partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show solid profitability and cash generation with improved leverage versus 2020 (low debt-to-equity and strong ROE history). Offsetting this strength, revenue and earnings have been declining from the 2022–2023 peak, and there is noted 2025 cash-flow data inconsistency, increasing cyclicality/volatility risk.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid versus most commodity peers, with strong margins in 2022–2024 (2024 net margin ~14.7% and EBITDA margin ~28.7%). However, results have clearly cooled from the 2022–2023 peak (net income down from ~$630M in 2023 to ~$361M in 2024 and ~$311M in 2025), alongside two straight years of revenue decline (2024: ~-4.6%, 2025: ~-2.4%). The earlier recovery from 2020 losses to strong profits is a key positive, but the current trajectory suggests normalization and higher earnings volatility risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled and has improved materially versus 2020, with debt-to-equity down from ~0.57 (2020) to ~0.19–0.27 in 2022–2024 and debt broadly stable (~$487M in 2024) against a much larger equity base (~$1.83B). Returns on equity were very strong in 2022–2023 (mid-30% range) and still healthy in 2024 (~19.7%), reflecting strong profitability and efficient capital use. The main watch-out is that equity growth has flattened recently while earnings are trending down, which could pressure returns if the downcycle extends.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been consistently positive, with operating cash flow around ~$802M–$831M in 2022–2024 and free cash flow positive each year. Cash flow has generally supported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.47–0.71 in 2021–2024), though 2024’s conversion is the weakest in the period shown. A key concern is data quality/consistency in 2025 where operating and free cash flow appear extremely large relative to revenue, so that year’s cash-flow signal is less reliable; excluding that anomaly, underlying cash flow strength is good but somewhat variable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.19B	2.45B	2.57B	2.42B	1.57B
Gross Profit	468.42M	507.48M	751.49M	741.20M	289.36M
EBITDA	675.19M	702.17M	948.52M	956.14M	483.47M
Net Income	311.16M	360.86M	630.12M	586.20M	182.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.85B	2.92B	2.79B	2.73B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.21M	136.96M	59.81M	296.02M	122.40M
Total Debt	479.96M	486.80M	350.82M	434.31M	450.66M
Total Liabilities	993.57M	1.06B	929.83M	1.02B	933.34M
Stockholders Equity	1.84B	1.83B	1.83B	1.61B	1.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	387.86B	374.39M	362.08M	515.96M	272.20M
Operating Cash Flow	651.14B	803.13M	830.64M	802.35M	426.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-331.25B	-440.66M	-559.73M	-403.34M	-143.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-385.73B	-285.32M	-507.12M	-225.39M	-215.69M

Alliance Resource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.51, above the 50-day MA of 24.22, and above the 200-day MA of 23.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARLP.

Alliance Resource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	79 Outperform	$1.58B	12.06	26.19%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.47B	11.04	16.76%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTU	62 Neutral	$4.09B	-75.08	-1.47%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
HCC	60 Neutral	$4.27B	76.82	2.69%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
AMR	56 Neutral	$2.11B	-34.81	-3.86%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
METC	49 Neutral	$989.39M	-16.99	-12.16%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Alliance Resource Corporate Events

Alliance Resource Expands Coal Reserves in Related-Party Deal

On January 29, 2026, Alliance Resource Properties, LLC completed the purchase of coal reserves and associated surface rights in Ohio County, West Virginia and Washington County, Pennsylvania from The Joseph W. Craft III Foundation and The Kathleen S. Craft Foundation for a total of $15.5 million, paying the KSC Foundation in full at closing and structuring the JWC Foundation’s consideration as a partial upfront payment with the remaining balance to be paid in equal annual installments through January 1, 2032 at 5% interest, with an option for prepayment. The transaction, which closed on January 29, 2026 and expands Alliance’s coal reserve holdings, constitutes a related-party deal due to the significant ownership and control roles of Joseph W. Craft III and Kathleen Craft Mowry in Alliance, and the terms of the JWC Foundation agreement were unanimously approved by the Board’s Conflicts Committee of independent directors to address governance and conflict-of-interest considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARLP) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Resource stock, see the ARLP Stock Forecast page.