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Alliance Resource Partners L.P. (ARLP)
NASDAQ:ARLP

Alliance Resource (ARLP) AI Stock Analysis

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ARLP

Alliance Resource

(NASDAQ:ARLP)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(15.19% Upside)
Alliance Resource's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, despite mixed technical indicators and earnings call results. The company's robust profitability, solid balance sheet, and high dividend yield are significant strengths, while the neutral technical outlook and mixed earnings call results present moderate risks.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Alliance Resource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties. It produces a range of thermal and metallurgical coal with sulfur and heat contents. The company operates seven underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. In addition, it leases land and operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana; and buys and resells coal, as well as owns mineral and royalty interests in approximately 1.5 million gross acres of oil and gas producing regions primarily in the Permian, Anadarko, and Williston Basins. Further, the company offers various mining technology products and services, including data network, communication and tracking systems, mining proximity detection systems, industrial collision avoidance systems, and data and analytics software. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 547.1 million tons of proven and probable coal mineral reserves, as well as 1.17 billion tons of measured, indicated, and inferred coal mineral resources in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlliance Resource generates revenue primarily through the sale of coal, which is its core product. The company operates several mining complexes, producing millions of tons of coal annually, which it sells to a variety of customers in both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major utility companies, spot market sales, and export sales. Additionally, ARLP benefits from price fluctuations in the coal market, allowing it to capitalize on higher prices during periods of increased demand. The company may also engage in partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Alliance Resource Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance, with strong operational improvements and increased volumes contrasting with decreased revenue and sales prices. Despite challenges, strategic investments and operational efficiencies have positioned the company for potential growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Coal Sales Volumes
Total coal sales volumes increased 3.9% to 8.7 million tons compared to the same quarter last year, and increased 3.8% compared to the previous quarter.
Strong Performance in Illinois Basin
Coal sales volumes in the Illinois Basin increased by 10.8% compared to the same quarter last year.
Improved EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $185.8 million, up 9% from the same quarter last year and up 14.8% sequentially.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Alliance generated free cash flow of $151.4 million after investing $63.8 million in coal operations.
Royalty Segment Revenue Growth
Total revenues in the royalty segment were $57.4 million, up 11.9% compared to the same quarter last year.
Successful Transition in Appalachia
Appalachia operations improved with a 21.8% increase in coal sales volumes compared to the previous quarter due to a successful transition to a new longwall district at Tunnel Ridge.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Total Revenue
Total revenues for the quarter were $571.4 million, down from $613.6 million in the same quarter last year.
Decline in Coal Sales Price
Average coal sales price per ton was $58.78, a decrease of 7.5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Appalachia Coal Sales Volume Decline
Coal sales volumes in Appalachia were down 13.3% compared to the same quarter last year due to lower production at Tunnel Ridge.
Lower Oil and Gas Sales Prices
There was a 10.5% decline in average oil and gas sales price per BOE compared to the same quarter last year.
Contingent Consideration Liability
Expenses included a $4.4 million unfavorable contingent consideration liability adjustment at Hamilton mine.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Alliance Resource Partners reported total revenues of $571.4 million, a decrease from $613.6 million in the same quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower coal sales prices and transportation revenues, despite an increase in coal sales volumes. Average coal sales price per ton was $58.78, down 7.5% year-over-year but up 1.5% sequentially. Coal production and sales volumes saw notable increases, with production at 8.4 million tons (up 8.5% year-over-year) and sales at 8.7 million tons (up 3.9% year-over-year). The company's royalty segment reported revenues of $57.4 million, an 11.9% increase from the previous year, driven by higher coal royalty tons. Net income for the quarter was $95.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $185.8 million, a 9% increase year-over-year. The company ended the quarter with $541.8 million in total liquidity and generated $151.4 million in free cash flow. For the full year 2025, Alliance tightened its sales guidance to 32.5 to 33.25 million tons, with favorable market conditions and increased long-term contracts supporting its outlook.

Alliance Resource Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Alliance Resource Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price23.44
Price Trends
50DMA
24.07
Negative
100DMA
23.86
Negative
200DMA
24.32
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Positive
RSI
40.05
Neutral
STOCH
20.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARLP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.94, below the 50-day MA of 24.07, and below the 200-day MA of 24.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARLP.

Alliance Resource Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$3.01B12.3913.07%11.13%-9.45%-46.37%
69
Neutral
$4.39B125.131.67%0.38%-23.25%-90.78%
67
Neutral
$1.34B9.3626.19%4.12%-14.79%-17.10%
59
Neutral
$2.40B-55.56-2.87%-32.53%-112.77%
57
Neutral
$3.38B-98.38-0.87%1.08%-7.21%-106.39%
52
Neutral
$935.82M-23.98-7.40%3.22%-16.99%-184.02%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ARLP
Alliance Resource
23.35
-0.13
-0.55%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
102.00
2.98
3.01%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
186.65
-18.18
-8.88%
METC
Ramaco Resources
13.98
4.30
44.42%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
84.90
29.36
52.86%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
28.50
7.30
34.43%

Alliance Resource Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Alliance Resource Subsidiary Signs Agreement with Saminco
Neutral
Oct 10, 2025

On October 10, 2025, CR Services, LLC, a subsidiary of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., entered into a Master Supply and Services Agreement with Saminco Solutions LLC. This agreement allows CR Services to purchase various electrical and mechanical products and services from Saminco Solutions under favorable terms. The agreement, which has an initial term of five years with automatic renewals, includes provisions for pricing, termination, and warranty obligations. The deal is a related party transaction due to the involvement of Joseph W. Craft III, who has significant control and ownership in Alliance Resource Partners and Saminco Solutions. The terms were approved by the independent directors of the board, ensuring compliance and transparency.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2025