Core Natural Resources (CNR)
NYSE:CNR
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Core Natural Resources
(NYSE:CNR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(7.01% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven by a strong technical uptrend and a constructive 2026 outlook (restored operations and improved contracting), partially offset by weakened 2025 profitability and sharply reduced free cash flow despite a healthier balance sheet. Valuation is mixed due to the negative P/E even with a very high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low debt-to-equity (~0.10 in 2025) and an expanded equity base give Core durable financial flexibility to fund higher 2026 maintenance and growth CapEx, sustain capital returns, and absorb cyclical shocks. This reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-month planning and optionality.
Negative Factors
Collapsed Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow plunged to about $21M in 2025, cutting the cushion for discretionary spending. With elevated 2026 CapEx and continued tax/insurance timing uncertainty, thin FCF raises funding risk for buybacks/dividends and makes the business more sensitive to any operational slip-ups over the coming months.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low debt-to-equity (~0.10 in 2025) and an expanded equity base give Core durable financial flexibility to fund higher 2026 maintenance and growth CapEx, sustain capital returns, and absorb cyclical shocks. This reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-month planning and optionality.
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Core Natural Resources (CNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.53B
Dividend Yield0.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth64.05%
EPS Growth-103.03%
CountryUS
Employees2,076
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.54
Shares Outstanding50,750,366
10 Day Avg. Volume961,835
30 Day Avg. Volume1,107,539
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio214.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-4.00K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.75Price Target Upside57.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)3.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.43B
Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Core Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bituminous coal in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) and CONSOL Marine Terminal. The company...
How the Company Makes Money
CNR generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of natural resources, including minerals and energy commodities, to industrial and governmental clients worldwide. The company participates in long-term supply contracts, spot mark...
Core Natural Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call describes a company emerging from a challenging 2025 marked by a major combustion event at Leer South, West Elk startup delays, sizable incident and idling costs, and reported net losses. However, management emphasizes that integration is nearly complete, synergy targets were exceeded, critical operations (Leer South and West Elk) are back online and productive, contracting coverage improved materially for 2026, supportive public policy and market tailwinds (U.S. coal consumption +12%, PLV +25%) are evident, and the company returned ~$245M to shareholders in 2025. While there are notable timing risks (insurance recoveries, tax credit cash timing), low PRB margins, and elevated near-term CapEx, the preponderance of operational recoveries, contracting progress, capital returns, and policy/market tailwinds lead management to a constructive outlook for 2026.Positive Updates
Integration and Synergies Progress
Integration of the merged companies is nearly complete; management reports exceeding synergy targets and expects continued SG&A and marketing/logistics benefits (including byproduct/blending uplifts). Long-term cash-based SG&A target ~ $90M (midpoint of guidance).
Negative Updates
Leer South Combustion Event and Significant Costs
Leer South experienced a combustion event in early 2025 that prevented longwall operations for nearly the entire year. Reported impact: approximately $100M of fire suppression and idling costs; $101M related charges included in 2025 adjusted EBITDA and $25M included in 4Q'25 adjusted EBITDA.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Integration and Synergies Progress
Integration of the merged companies is nearly complete; management reports exceeding synergy targets and expects continued SG&A and marketing/logistics benefits (including byproduct/blending uplifts). Long-term cash-based SG&A target ~ $90M (midpoint of guidance).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Core guided: high‑CV thermal sales of 30–32 million tons (≈76% contracted at the midpoint) with committed/called coal revenue >$57/ton and an average cash cost of $38.00–$39.50/ton; metallurgical (coking) sales of 8.6–9.4 million tons with priced committed tons averaging ≈$120/ton and an average cash cost of $88–$94/ton; PRB sales of 47–50 million tons (47.4 million tons contracted) at average coal revenue ≈$14.15/ton and average cash cost $13.00–$13.50/ton. Company guidance also includes capital expenditures of $325–$375 million (≈$300–$350M maintenance; remainder for growth/innovation with roughly $25M tied to rare‑earth/critical‑materials efforts), cash‑based SG&A of $85–$100M (longer‑term target ≈$90M), and the continued capital‑return framework targeting ~75% of free cash flow (quarterly dividend $0.10/share); the plan assumes the 45X production tax credit (benefit applied to 2026 costs, cash received with 2027 tax filings), no idling costs in the high‑CV and metallurgical segments (vs ~$112M in 2025), higher insurance recoveries in 2026, and only ≈$10M of merger‑related expense (vs $66M in 2025).Core Natural Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.16B | 2.15B | 2.51B | 2.28B | 1.26B |
| Gross Profit | -1.11M | 1.65B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 932.63M |
| EBITDA | 405.10M | 576.37M | 1.05B | 847.96M | 323.33M |
| Net Income | -153.22M | 286.40M | 655.89M | 466.98M | 34.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.13B | 2.88B | 2.68B | 2.70B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.17M | 460.23M | 281.30M | 273.07M | 149.91M |
| Total Debt | 354.16M | 213.74M | 212.33M | 404.18M | 673.94M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.45B | 1.31B | 1.33B | 1.54B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.68B | 1.57B | 1.34B | 1.17B | 672.81M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.17M | 298.40M | 690.16M | 479.48M | 172.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 305.75M | 476.39M | 857.95M | 650.99M | 305.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 47.66M | -165.03M | -259.43M | -142.18M | -127.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.79M | -107.08M | -682.20M | -380.07M | -30.85M |
Core Natural Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
85.97
Price Trends
94.88
Negative
91.93
Negative
85.42
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.81
Positive
36.96
Neutral
16.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.67, below the 50-day MA of 94.88, and above the 200-day MA of 85.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNR.
Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.31B | 9.58 | 17.15% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
69 Neutral | $3.42B | -68.38 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
66 Neutral | $2.47B | -42.11 | -3.88% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $4.53B | -14.37 | -4.05% | 0.45% | 64.05% | -103.03% | |
62 Neutral | $4.67B | 81.30 | 2.71% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
50 Neutral | $904.61M | -18.74 | -12.01% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Energy Sector Average
CNR
Core Natural Resources
85.34
11.63
15.78%
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AMR
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METC
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14.07
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HCC
Warrior Met Coal
87.81
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81.32%
BTU
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25.72
13.47
109.99%
Core Natural Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Core Natural Resources Sees 2026 as Free-Cash-Flow Inflection
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Core Natural Resources reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, 2026, posting a net loss of $79.0 million despite generating $1.042 billion in revenue and $103.1 million in adjusted EBITDA, as fire-related and idle mine costs at Leer South...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.