Core Natural Resources (CNR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.89B
• Dividend Yield: 0.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 891.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 10.42%
• EPS Growth: -70.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,076
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -1.38
• Shares Outstanding: 52,660,076
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 877,353
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 891,895
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.40
• 1Y Price Target: $93.00
• Price Target Upside: 26.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $79.00 ▲(7.05%Upside)

Core Natural Resources shows strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and a strong balance sheet. The earnings call reflects positive strategic actions despite some challenges. However, technical indicators suggest caution with bearish signals, and valuation metrics show reasonable pricing but limited income potential. The successful bond refinancing adds to financial flexibility but is already encapsulated in the earnings call analysis.

Positive Factors

Production and Pricing

The high C.V. thermal business should benefit from robust power-linked prices and is expected to have a strong production quarter.

Share Buybacks

Core Natural Resources plans to continue share buybacks, repurchasing $101M of shares, which is around 3% of shares outstanding.

Synergy Targets

Management increased its target for synergies by 10% to $125M-$150M, indicating confidence that savings could exceed expectations.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

CNR reported a 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $123M, which fell short of the $177M consensus and the $186M estimate, largely due to $36M in idling costs related to Leer South.

Operational Challenges

The combustion event at Leer South will limit coking coal sales to 7.5M-8.0M tons, impacting shipment and cost expectations.

Valuation Concerns

Analyst's discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA multiple analysis imply little upside to the Core share price based on current coal price assumptions.

Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Core Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bituminous coal in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) and CONSOL Marine Terminal. The company's PAMC segment engages in the mining, preparing, and marketing of bituminous coal to power generators, industrial end-users, and metallurgical end-users. This segment includes the Bailey Mine, the Enlow Fork Mine, the Harvey Mine, and the central preparation plant. Its CONSOL Marine Terminal segment provides coal export terminal services through the Port of Baltimore. The company also develops and operates the Itmann Mining Complex located in Wyoming County, West Virginia; and Greenfield Reserves and Resources located in the Northern Appalachian, Central Appalachian, and Illinois basins. The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to Core Natural Resources, Inc. in January 2025. Core Natural Resources, Inc. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Core Natural Resources generates revenue through the sale of extracted minerals, including copper, gold, and iron ore, to various industries such as manufacturing, technology, and construction. The company's revenue model is primarily driven by commodity sales, where prices are influenced by global market demand and supply dynamics. CNR also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its mining operations and access new markets. Additionally, the company invests in advanced technologies and efficient mining practices to optimize production costs and improve profit margins.

Core Natural Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Core Natural Resources demonstrates solid revenue growth and a strong balance sheet with low leverage. However, declining margins and reduced free cash flow highlight profitability pressures and cash generation challenges, warranting close monitoring.

Income Statement

Core Natural Resources shows strong growth in revenue with a TTM increase of 22.1% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin stands robustly at 48.1% for the TTM, though there is a decline in EBIT margin to 5.0%. The net profit margin has decreased to 4.4% in the TTM, indicating some challenges in maintaining profitability levels.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 in the TTM, showcasing low leverage. Stockholders' equity has increased, contributing to an equity ratio of 62.3%. However, the return on equity has decreased to 3.0%, revealing a reduction in profitability from equity investments.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.5, reflecting good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 70.2% in the TTM, suggesting potential challenges in generating discretionary cash.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.62B	2.15B	2.51B	2.28B	1.26B	879.46M
	Gross Profit
1.26B	1.65B	1.97B	1.87B	932.63M	628.71M
	EBIT
129.97M	265.23M	747.68M	804.78M	100.18M	-111.59M
	EBITDA
451.31M	576.37M	1.05B	847.96M	323.33M	262.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
115.24M	286.40M	655.89M	466.98M	34.11M	-9.76M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
388.49M	460.23M	281.30M	273.07M	149.91M	50.85M
	Total Assets
6.25B	2.88B	2.68B	2.70B	2.57B	2.52B
	Total Debt
367.13M	213.74M	212.33M	404.18M	673.94M	712.80M
	Net Debt
-21.36M	-194.50M	12.96M	131.11M	524.02M	661.95M
	Total Liabilities
2.36B	1.31B	1.33B	1.54B	1.90B	1.97B
	Stockholders Equity
3.90B	1.57B	1.34B	1.17B	672.81M	553.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
88.81M	298.40M	690.16M	479.48M	172.82M	43.33M
	Operating Cash Flow
289.27M	476.39M	857.95M	650.99M	305.57M	129.33M
	Investing Cash Flow
154.28M	-165.03M	-259.43M	-142.18M	-127.36M	-76.33M
	Financing Cash Flow
-81.00M	-107.08M	-682.20M	-380.07M	-30.85M	-82.44M

Core Natural Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 73.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 73.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.91, above the 50-day MA of 71.02, and below the 200-day MA of 92.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNR.

Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	76 Outperform	$3.34B	12.20	14.71%	10.77%	-8.53%	-53.44%
BTU	76 Outperform	$1.66B	5.11	10.33%	2.20%	-7.42%	-26.06%
CNR	72 Outperform	$3.89B	15.23	4.36%	0.54%	10.42%	-70.77%
NRP	70 Neutral	$1.25B	9.12	31.98%	3.16%	-19.21%	-30.92%
HCC	62 Neutral	$2.46B	23.24	5.20%	0.68%	-21.04%	-75.78%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.56B	3.50	-4.45%	10.15%	0.79%	-49.51%
AMR	53 Neutral	$1.47B	55.80	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%

Core Natural Resources Corporate Events

Core Natural Resources Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss

On May 8, 2025, Core Natural Resources reported a net loss of $69.3 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to merger-related expenses and debt extinguishment. Despite this, the company made significant progress in integrating its operations post-merger, increasing its synergy target by 10% and executing a robust capital return program, returning $106.6 million to investors. The company also made strides in resuming operations at Leer South, with expectations to boost productivity and lower costs in the second half of 2025. Core’s strategic capital market transactions have enhanced its liquidity and financial flexibility, allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in a volatile market.

Core Natural Resources Completes Successful Bond Refinancing

On March 27, 2025, Core Natural Resources successfully completed a refinancing effort involving tax-exempt bonds initially issued by CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources. The refinancing increased the total bond amount from $276 million to $307 million, established a 10-year initial term for the now unsecured bonds maturing in March 2035, and reduced the weighted average interest rate to 5.3% despite a higher interest rate environment. The transactions, which were more than six times oversubscribed, underscore the strength of Core’s operating portfolio and its enhanced diversification and scale, providing significant financial flexibility to support long-term growth. Thirty-nine institutional investors participated in the transactions, with Jefferies LLC and KeyBanc Capital as co-lead bookrunners.