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Core Natural Resources (CNR)
NYSE:CNR
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Core Natural Resources
(NYSE:CNR)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(10.36% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—stronger balance sheet but a sharp 2025 earnings and free-cash-flow deterioration—partly offset by a constructive 2026 recovery narrative and improved contracting on the earnings call. Technicals are neutral and valuation is pressured by negative earnings, keeping the overall score in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet and leverage
Core’s materially improved leverage and larger equity base provide durable financial flexibility. A stronger capital structure supports steady investment in operations, funds elevated but strategic CapEx, and underpins the company’s ability to sustain dividends and buybacks through coal market cycles.
High contracted sales coverage
Substantial forward sales across high‑CV, PRB and metallurgical segments provide multi‑month revenue visibility and mitigate spot price exposure. This contracted book supports predictable cash flows, improves planning for production and CapEx, and strengthens the durability of margins and shareholder distributions.
Operational restarts and realized synergies
Completion of integration with exceeded synergies and restored mine operations (Leer South, West Elk) enhances recurring cost efficiency. Structural SG&A reductions and smoother logistics should lift long‑run margins and free cash generation as operations normalize, making earnings recovery more sustainable.
Negative Factors
2025 net loss and FCF deterioration
The swing to a material net loss and sharply reduced free cash flow in 2025 highlights Core’s earnings cyclicality and execution sensitivity. If adverse conditions reappear or recovery timing slips, the company’s ability to compound equity, fund returns and invest for growth could be constrained over the medium term.
Slim PRB per‑ton margins
PRB’s razor‑thin margins leave that segment highly exposed to slight price or cost moves. Structurally low per‑ton economics limit PRB’s contribution to overall free cash flow, making Core’s portfolio earnings more sensitive to price volatility and input‑cost inflation over coming quarters.
Elevated CapEx and cash‑timing risks
A step‑up in maintenance‑heavy CapEx combined with delayed cash benefits (production tax credit receipts and uncertain insurance recoveries) creates near‑term cash timing risk. This lumpy spending and delayed inflows could compress free cash flow and pressure capital returns if collection or execution lags.
Core Natural Resources (CNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.43B
Dividend Yield0.45%
Average Volume (3M)698.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth64.05%
EPS Growth-103.03%
CountryUS
Employees2,076
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.54
Shares Outstanding50,979,546
10 Day Avg. Volume633,951
30 Day Avg. Volume698,191
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio214.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-3.96K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$130.60Price Target Upside50.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.45B
Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCore Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bituminous coal in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) and CONSOL Marine Terminal. The company's PAMC segment engages in the mining, preparing, and marketing of bituminous coal to power generators, industrial end-users, and metallurgical end-users. This segment includes the Bailey Mine, the Enlow Fork Mine, the Harvey Mine, and the central preparation plant. Its CONSOL Marine Terminal segment provides coal export terminal services through the Port of Baltimore. The company also develops and operates the Itmann Mining Complex located in Wyoming County, West Virginia; and Greenfield Reserves and Resources located in the Northern Appalachian, Central Appalachian, and Illinois basins. The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to Core Natural Resources, Inc. in January 2025. Core Natural Resources, Inc. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyCore Natural Resources generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling extracted natural resources to various industries, including construction, manufacturing, and energy production. The company profits from the sale of minerals and fossil fuels, which are essential commodities in the global market. Additionally, CNR has established strategic partnerships with energy companies and industrial manufacturers, allowing for bulk sales agreements and long-term contracts that stabilize revenue streams. CNR also earns income through consulting services that advise clients on sustainable practices and resource management, further diversifying its revenue model.
Core Natural Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call describes a company emerging from a challenging 2025 marked by a major combustion event at Leer South, West Elk startup delays, sizable incident and idling costs, and reported net losses. However, management emphasizes that integration is nearly complete, synergy targets were exceeded, critical operations (Leer South and West Elk) are back online and productive, contracting coverage improved materially for 2026, supportive public policy and market tailwinds (U.S. coal consumption +12%, PLV +25%) are evident, and the company returned ~$245M to shareholders in 2025. While there are notable timing risks (insurance recoveries, tax credit cash timing), low PRB margins, and elevated near-term CapEx, the preponderance of operational recoveries, contracting progress, capital returns, and policy/market tailwinds lead management to a constructive outlook for 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Integration and Synergies Progress
Integration of the merged companies is nearly complete; management reports exceeding synergy targets and expects continued SG&A and marketing/logistics benefits (including byproduct/blending uplifts). Long-term cash-based SG&A target ~ $90M (midpoint of guidance).
Leer South Longwall Restarted and Performing
Leer South longwall restarted mid-December and achieved its production target in the first month back; management expects favorable mining conditions and a return to world-class longwall performance in 2026.
West Elk Transition to B Seam Complete and Productive
Transition to the B seam at West Elk completed as of December; elevated methane and water issues have been resolved and the mine is running at very high productivity levels with management targeting expanded customer demand for higher-quality coal.
Strong Capital Returns in 2025
Core returned $245 million to stockholders in 2025 (nearly 100% of free cash flow), including ~$224 million in share repurchases (buyback of ~6% of shares outstanding) and a sustained quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.
Contracting Progress and Forward Sales
Added ~7 million tons each to sold positions (high CV thermal and PRB) since 3Q'25; contracted positions reported: ~24 million tons (high CV thermal) and 47 million tons (PRB). Metallurgical segment nearly 7 million coking tons contracted for 2026 with ~2.4 million tons priced.
2026 Operational and Financial Guidance
2026 guidance includes: High CV thermal sales 30–32M tons (76% contracted at midpoint) with expected coal revenue > $57/ton and cash cost $38–$39.50/ton; Metallurgical sales 8.6–9.4M tons with priced revenue ≈ $120/ton and cash cost $88–$94/ton; PRB sales 47–50M tons (47.4M contracted) with avg revenue ≈ $14.15/ton and cash cost $13–$13.50/ton. CapEx guide $325–$375M; cash SG&A $85–$100M.
Market Tailwinds and Pricing Upside
U.S. utility coal consumption estimated up ~12% vs 2024 (PJM +19%, MISO +15%). PLV benchmark prices increased ~25% since early December to ~ $250/metric ton due to Australian supply disruptions. Management highlights data-center driven power demand growth (global data centers ~14% CAGR to 2030; Americas ~17% CAGR).
Rare Earths and Critical Materials Progress
Exploration and R&D progress: additional PRB drill holes show enriched REE concentrations near seam margins; exclusive option to license Virginia Tech extraction technology for Northern Appalachian PMC; advancing coal-based battery materials and aerospace/defense initiatives.
Negative Updates
Leer South Combustion Event and Significant Costs
Leer South experienced a combustion event in early 2025 that prevented longwall operations for nearly the entire year. Reported impact: approximately $100M of fire suppression and idling costs; $101M related charges included in 2025 adjusted EBITDA and $25M included in 4Q'25 adjusted EBITDA.
West Elk Startup Delays and Idle Costs
Transition to the B seam at West Elk had a slower-than-expected startup due to elevated methane and water influx; reported $11M of West Elk idle costs in 2025 and associated operational disruption in the year.
Reported Net Losses in 2025
4Q'25 net loss of $79M (loss per diluted share $1.54). Full-year 2025 net loss of $153M (loss per diluted share $2.98) despite adjusted EBITDA of $512M for the year.
Material 2025 Idling and Incident Costs
Aggregate idling costs and incident-related charges were significant (~$112M of idling costs in high CV & metallurgical segments in 2025), negatively affecting 2025 performance and cash generation timing.
Timing Lag for Tax Credits and Insurance Cash Benefits
Guidance includes benefit from the 45X production tax credit in 2026 cash costs, but the actual cash benefit will not be received until 2027 when tax returns are filed. Insurance recoveries are expected but timing is uncertain and proceeds may be back-loaded through 2Q–4Q 2026.
Low PRB Revenue per Ton and Tight Margins
PRB average coal revenue guidance ≈ $14.15/ton with cash cost guidance $13–$13.50/ton for 2026, indicating very slim per-ton margins in the PRB segment under current price assumptions.
Increased 2026 Capital Expenditure and Investment Needs
2026 CapEx guidance of $325–$375M (maintenance-heavy ~$300–$350M) represents a step-up year-over-year; ~$25M of the increase tied to rare earth/innovation projects, indicating elevated near-term spending and potential lumpy cash flow.
Market and Execution Uncertainties
Spread dislocations (e.g., PLV vs HVA) are expected to normalize; utilities' sustainable capacity factor is uncertain (current ~49% but seasonally higher), and higher pricing may be required to incentivize industry production ramp-up—creating execution and pricing risk if demand increases faster than supply response.
Company Guidance
For 2026 Core guided: high‑CV thermal sales of 30–32 million tons (≈76% contracted at the midpoint) with committed/called coal revenue >$57/ton and an average cash cost of $38.00–$39.50/ton; metallurgical (coking) sales of 8.6–9.4 million tons with priced committed tons averaging ≈$120/ton and an average cash cost of $88–$94/ton; PRB sales of 47–50 million tons (47.4 million tons contracted) at average coal revenue ≈$14.15/ton and average cash cost $13.00–$13.50/ton. Company guidance also includes capital expenditures of $325–$375 million (≈$300–$350M maintenance; remainder for growth/innovation with roughly $25M tied to rare‑earth/critical‑materials efforts), cash‑based SG&A of $85–$100M (longer‑term target ≈$90M), and the continued capital‑return framework targeting ~75% of free cash flow (quarterly dividend $0.10/share); the plan assumes the 45X production tax credit (benefit applied to 2026 costs, cash received with 2027 tax filings), no idling costs in the high‑CV and metallurgical segments (vs ~$112M in 2025), higher insurance recoveries in 2026, and only ≈$10M of merger‑related expense (vs $66M in 2025).Core Natural Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (improved leverage and a stronger equity base), but overall fundamentals are mixed: 2025 saw a sharp reversal into net losses and a significant step-down in free cash flow despite higher revenue, signaling elevated cycle/earnings volatility.Income Statement
Results show strong profitability in 2022–2024 (high gross and net profitability, with 2023–2024 generating solid earnings), but 2025 deteriorated sharply into a net loss and negative operating profit despite higher revenue. Revenue has been volatile (rapid growth in 2022, modest growth in 2023, decline in 2024, then rebound in 2025), which is typical for coal but increases earnings risk. Overall: good prior-cycle strength, but the latest annual print is a meaningful reset.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved materially over time: debt was high relative to equity in 2020–2021, then fell to a low level versus equity in 2022–2024, indicating a much stronger capital structure. Equity and assets expanded meaningfully into 2025, and total debt remains moderate versus the equity base. The main weakness is that profitability on equity was very strong in 2022–2023 but appears pressured with the 2025 loss, which can slow balance-sheet compounding if conditions persist.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation was strong in 2022–2023 with healthy free cash flow, then cooled in 2024 and dropped sharply in 2025 (free cash flow down significantly year over year and only modestly positive). Operating cash flow remained positive across the period, but the recent compression suggests weaker underlying cash earnings and/or higher capital spending needs. Overall cash flow is still positive, but momentum has clearly weakened.61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.16B | 2.15B | 2.51B | 2.28B | 1.26B |
| Gross Profit | -1.11M | 1.65B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 932.63M |
| EBITDA | 405.10M | 576.37M | 1.05B | 847.96M | 323.33M |
| Net Income | -153.22M | 286.40M | 655.89M | 466.98M | 34.11M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.13B | 2.88B | 2.68B | 2.70B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.17M | 460.23M | 281.30M | 273.07M | 149.91M |
| Total Debt | 354.16M | 213.74M | 212.33M | 404.18M | 673.94M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.45B | 1.31B | 1.33B | 1.54B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.68B | 1.57B | 1.34B | 1.17B | 672.81M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.17M | 298.40M | 690.16M | 479.48M | 172.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 305.75M | 476.39M | 857.95M | 650.99M | 305.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 47.66M | -165.03M | -259.43M | -142.18M | -127.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.79M | -107.08M | -682.20M | -380.07M | -30.85M |
Core Natural Resources Technical Analysis
Neutral
86.99
Price Trends
91.46
Negative
87.87
Negative
80.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.88
Positive
46.08
Neutral
26.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 86.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.93, below the 50-day MA of 91.46, and above the 200-day MA of 80.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNR.
Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.47B | 11.04 | 16.76% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $4.09B | -75.08 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
60 Neutral | $4.43B | -28.87 | -5.84% | 0.45% | 64.05% | -103.03% | |
60 Neutral | $4.27B | 76.82 | 2.69% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
56 Neutral | $2.11B | -34.81 | -3.86% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
49 Neutral | $989.39M | -16.99 | -12.16% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Energy Sector Average
CNR
Core Natural Resources
86.99
16.19
22.86%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.98
4.17
18.27%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
165.18
32.86
24.83%
METC
Ramaco Resources
15.55
7.55
94.47%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
81.13
32.51
66.87%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
33.63
20.94
164.99%
Core Natural Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Core Natural Resources Sees 2026 as Free-Cash-Flow Inflection
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Core Natural Resources reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, 2026, posting a net loss of $79.0 million despite generating $1.042 billion in revenue and $103.1 million in adjusted EBITDA, as fire-related and idle mine costs at Leer South and West Elk weighed on margins. The quarter also saw longwall mining resume at Leer South, completion of the seam transition at West Elk, and operating cash flow of $107.3 million driving $27.0 million in free cash flow.
Across its high calorific value thermal, metallurgical and Powder River Basin segments, Core shipped robust volumes but faced higher maintenance and transition costs, while benefiting from improving realized prices in certain markets and lower federal royalties in the PRB. The company significantly expanded its contracted position for 2026 and beyond, locking in tens of millions of tons at prices expected to support strong margins and free cash flow, including 6.7 million tons of coking coal commitments.
Core continued executing its capital return framework, returning $26.8 million to shareholders in the quarter and $245.1 million in 2025 overall, primarily via buybacks that have already retired about 6 percent of shares outstanding, and declared a $0.10 per-share dividend payable in March 2026. With year-end liquidity of $948.9 million and $775.7 million of remaining buyback authorization, management framed 2026 as an inflection year, citing fully restored mine operations, merger synergies and strengthening coal markets as drivers of higher free cash flow and sustained shareholder returns.
The company highlighted supportive market trends, including an estimated 12 percent rise in 2025 U.S. utility coal consumption amid strong power demand and policy moves to bolster the domestic coal fleet, as well as tightening global metallurgical coal supply and rising prices following disruptions in Australia. Core also emphasized growing seaborne opportunities, particularly in Indian cement and Southeast Asian steel markets, positioning its high-rank thermal and coking coals to capture value as global energy and infrastructure demand evolves.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNR) stock is a Hold with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Core Natural Resources stock, see the CNR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Core Natural Resources Restarts Leer South Longwall Operations
Positive
Dec 18, 2025
On December 18, 2025, Core Natural Resources announced it had resumed longwall mining at its Leer South metallurgical coal mine in West Virginia, which had been idle since January 13, 2025 due to combustion-related activity, after successfully recovering and repositioning major equipment and permanently sealing the affected area. The company also reported that its West Elk mine in Colorado has reached consistent productivity following a transition to a new coal seam, and management indicated that the restart at Leer South, improved conditions at West Elk, insurance recoveries, lower idling and fire-suppression costs, and merger-related synergies are expected to drive a significant improvement in Core’s financial performance and operational efficiency in 2026, with implications for stronger profitability and cost competitiveness across its mining portfolio.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNR) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Core Natural Resources stock, see the CNR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.