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Core Natural Resources (CNR)
NYSE:CNR

Core Natural Resources (CNR) AI Stock Analysis

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Core Natural Resources

(NYSE:CNR)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$76.00
â–²(9.40%Upside)
Core Natural Resources' overall score reflects solid financial performance and strategic initiatives from the earnings call that enhance financial flexibility. However, technical analysis indicates bearish trends, and valuation suggests limited income appeal. Key concerns include profitability pressures and market challenges, especially in the Metallurgical segment.
Positive Factors
Capital Returns
Core's strategy includes focusing on capital returns, such as significant dividends and share repurchases, which can be attractive to investors.
Financial Stability
Core's strong balance sheet and good free cash flow profile contribute to its financial stability.
Market Demand
Higher-than-expected domestic demand for CNR’s thermal products is supported by weather, constructive natural gas prices, and a supportive administration.
Negative Factors
Investment Uncertainty
The risk of mergers and acquisitions could be an overhang on Core's share price, creating uncertainty for investors.
Market Challenges
Met coal markets remain challenged as they face headwinds from tariff uncertainty, weak steelmaker sentiment, and tepid demand.
Operational Disruptions
The combustion event at Leer South will limit coking coal sales, impacting shipment and cost expectations.

Core Natural Resources (CNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCore Natural Resources (CNR) is a diversified natural resources company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resources. Operating primarily in the mining sector, CNR focuses on the extraction and processing of essential minerals such as copper, gold, and iron ore. The company is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in its operations to meet the growing global demand for natural resources.
How the Company Makes MoneyCore Natural Resources generates revenue through the sale of extracted minerals, including copper, gold, and iron ore, to various industries such as manufacturing, technology, and construction. The company's revenue model is primarily driven by commodity sales, where prices are influenced by global market demand and supply dynamics. CNR also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its mining operations and access new markets. Additionally, the company invests in advanced technologies and efficient mining practices to optimize production costs and improve profit margins.

Core Natural Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Core Natural Resources demonstrated a strong start post-merger with significant achievements in synergy capture, operational excellence in the high CV thermal segment, and strategic share buybacks. However, challenges such as the Leer South outage, soft market conditions impacting the Metallurgical segment, and reported net losses indicate some ongoing hurdles. The sentiment is balanced with notable positive actions and achievements alongside operational and market challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start for Core Natural Resources
The company generated $123.5 million of adjusted EBITDA despite a generally soft market environment and returned $106.6 million to investors through share buybacks and dividends.
Increased Synergy Targets
Core increased its target for merger-related synergies by 10% at the midpoint of guidance, now expecting between $125 million and $150 million.
Operational Excellence in High CV Thermal Segment
The high CV thermal segment generated substantial free cash flow by leveraging strong contracted business and favorable market conditions.
Record Quarterly Production at Leer Mine
The Metallurgical segment reported record quarterly production at the Leer mine, contributing to a solid cost performance across most of the portfolio.
Capital Return Program
Core repurchased 1.4 million shares worth approximately $101 million and paid $5 million in dividends, signaling confidence in future outlook.
Improved Financial Flexibility and Liquidity
Core increased its revolving credit facility to $600 million, reduced credit spread, and refinanced bonds, leading to $3 million annual interest savings.
Negative Updates
Market Challenges for Metallurgical Segment
The Metallurgical segment faced soft market conditions due to trade-related uncertainties, impacting pricing levels.
Leer South Longwall Outage
The Leer South operation experienced a longwall outage due to a combustion event, costing $36 million related to idling and affecting production.
Net Loss Reported
The company reported a net loss of $69 million or $1.38 per diluted share, partially due to $49 million in merger-related expenses.
Soft International Market Conditions
Both the metallurgical and high CV thermal coal segments encountered soft market conditions internationally, partly due to tariff uncertainties.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Core Natural Resources reported significant financial metrics and operational achievements. The company generated $123.5 million of adjusted EBITDA despite challenging market conditions and returned $106.6 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. They increased their synergy target by 10% to between $125 million and $150 million. The high CV thermal segment reported substantial free cash flow, while the Metallurgical segment achieved a cash cost performance of $91 per ton, excluding $36 million in idle costs from the Leer South operation. The company's capital return program aims to return 75% of the previous quarter's free cash flow to shareholders, and the Board has authorized $1 billion in share repurchases, with $900 million remaining. Additionally, Core improved its liquidity and financial flexibility by increasing its credit facility to $600 million and refinancing tax-exempt bonds, saving nearly $3 million in annual interest. The synergy capture has already yielded approximately $100 million in annual synergies, with expectations to increase further by leveraging blending synergies and cost-saving measures.

Core Natural Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Core Natural Resources demonstrates solid revenue growth and a strong balance sheet with low leverage. However, declining margins and reduced free cash flow highlight profitability pressures and cash generation challenges, warranting close monitoring.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Core Natural Resources shows strong growth in revenue with a TTM increase of 22.1% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin stands robustly at 48.1% for the TTM, though there is a decline in EBIT margin to 5.0%. The net profit margin has decreased to 4.4% in the TTM, indicating some challenges in maintaining profitability levels.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company has improved its financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 in the TTM, showcasing low leverage. Stockholders' equity has increased, contributing to an equity ratio of 62.3%. However, the return on equity has decreased to 3.0%, revealing a reduction in profitability from equity investments.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.5, reflecting good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined significantly by 70.2% in the TTM, suggesting potential challenges in generating discretionary cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.62B2.15B2.51B2.28B1.26B879.46M
Gross Profit1.26B1.65B1.97B1.87B932.63M628.71M
EBITDA451.31M576.37M1.05B847.96M323.33M262.70M
Net Income115.24M286.40M655.89M466.98M34.11M-9.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.25B2.88B2.68B2.70B2.57B2.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments388.49M460.23M281.30M273.07M149.91M50.85M
Total Debt367.13M213.74M212.33M404.18M673.94M712.80M
Total Liabilities2.36B1.31B1.33B1.54B1.90B1.97B
Stockholders Equity3.90B1.57B1.34B1.17B672.81M553.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow88.81M298.40M690.16M479.48M172.82M43.33M
Operating Cash Flow289.27M476.39M857.95M650.99M305.57M129.33M
Investing Cash Flow154.28M-165.03M-259.43M-142.18M-127.36M-76.33M
Financing Cash Flow-81.00M-107.08M-682.20M-380.07M-30.85M-82.44M

Core Natural Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price69.47
Price Trends
50DMA
70.75
Negative
100DMA
72.33
Negative
200DMA
90.25
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.10
Negative
RSI
48.72
Neutral
STOCH
67.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.23, below the 50-day MA of 70.75, and below the 200-day MA of 90.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNR.

Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BTBTU
77
Outperform
$1.76B5.4410.33%2.07%-7.42%-26.06%
76
Outperform
$3.43B12.5514.71%10.48%-8.53%-53.44%
NRNRP
71
Outperform
$1.29B9.4431.98%3.05%-19.21%-30.92%
CNCNR
70
Outperform
$3.73B14.604.36%0.56%10.42%-70.77%
AMAMR
66
Neutral
$1.47B55.631.66%0.36%-23.34%-95.18%
HCHCC
64
Neutral
$2.58B24.435.20%0.65%-21.04%-75.78%
52
Neutral
C$2.90B-1.03-3.46%6.07%3.01%-47.13%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNR
Core Natural Resources
69.47
-29.77
-30.00%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.62
4.56
20.67%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
97.99
6.94
7.62%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
112.28
-192.99
-63.22%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
48.96
-19.28
-28.25%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
14.26
-8.42
-37.13%

Core Natural Resources Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Core Natural Resources Updates on Leer South Mine Operations
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Core Natural Resources announced updates on efforts to resume longwall operations at its Leer South mine following a combustion-related event in January. The company re-entered the mine on June 10, re-established ventilation, and inspected equipment, finding it largely unaffected. However, elevated carbon monoxide levels led to a temporary reseal on June 26. Core is working with officials to reposition and restart the longwall system within four months, maintaining its 2025 coking coal sales volume guidance. The company expects insurance recoveries exceeding $100 million, despite the delayed restart.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNR) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Core Natural Resources stock, see the CNR Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Core Natural Resources Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Core Natural Resources reported a net loss of $69.3 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to merger-related expenses and debt extinguishment. Despite this, the company made significant progress in integrating its operations post-merger, increasing its synergy target by 10% and executing a robust capital return program, returning $106.6 million to investors. The company also made strides in resuming operations at Leer South, with expectations to boost productivity and lower costs in the second half of 2025. Core’s strategic capital market transactions have enhanced its liquidity and financial flexibility, allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in a volatile market.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 09, 2025