Core Natural Resources (CNR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.56B
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 803.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 10.42%
• EPS Growth: -70.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,076
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -1.38
• Shares Outstanding: 52,660,076
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 656,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 803,319
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $97.33
• Price Target Upside: 47.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $78.00 ▲(18.18%Upside)

Core Natural Resources is positioned with solid revenue growth and enhanced financial flexibility due to successful bond refinancing. Despite strong operational achievements and synergy captures, challenges like declining profitability margins, weak technical indicators, and market conditions weigh on the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Share Buybacks

Core Natural Resources plans to continue share buybacks, repurchasing $101M of shares, which is around 3% of shares outstanding.

Synergy Targets

Management increased its target for synergies by 10% to $125M-$150M, indicating confidence that savings could exceed expectations.

Negative Factors

Earnings Shortfall

CNR reported a 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $123M, which fell short of the $177M consensus and the $186M estimate, largely due to $36M in idling costs related to Leer South.

Operational Challenges

The combustion event at Leer South will limit coking coal sales to 7.5M-8.0M tons, impacting shipment and cost expectations.

Valuation Concerns

Analyst's discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA multiple analysis imply little upside to the Core share price based on current coal price assumptions.

Core Natural Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Core Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bituminous coal in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) and CONSOL Marine Terminal. The company's PAMC segment engages in the mining, preparing, and marketing of bituminous coal to power generators, industrial end-users, and metallurgical end-users. This segment includes the Bailey Mine, the Enlow Fork Mine, the Harvey Mine, and the central preparation plant. Its CONSOL Marine Terminal segment provides coal export terminal services through the Port of Baltimore. The company also develops and operates the Itmann Mining Complex located in Wyoming County, West Virginia; and Greenfield Reserves and Resources located in the Northern Appalachian, Central Appalachian, and Illinois basins. The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to Core Natural Resources, Inc. in January 2025. Core Natural Resources, Inc. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Core Natural Resources generates revenue through the sale of extracted minerals, including copper, gold, and iron ore, to various industries such as manufacturing, technology, and construction. The company's revenue model is primarily driven by commodity sales, where prices are influenced by global market demand and supply dynamics. CNR also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its mining operations and access new markets. Additionally, the company invests in advanced technologies and efficient mining practices to optimize production costs and improve profit margins.

Core Natural Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Core Natural Resources shows a stable financial position with a strong balance sheet and robust gross margins. However, recent declines in revenue and net income, coupled with decreasing free cash flow, suggest challenges in sustaining growth and profitability. The company should focus on reversing revenue declines and maintaining cash flow to support long-term stability.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. Gross Profit Margin is solid, indicating efficient production, but the Net Profit Margin has decreased significantly from the previous year. The absence of EBIT data limits comprehensive analysis. Revenue has seen fluctuations with a decline in the most recent year, which could be a concern for growth prospects.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows strong equity growth and a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company has managed to reduce its debt over recent years, enhancing its financial health. However, the Equity Ratio suggests a moderate reliance on liabilities, which should be monitored.

Cash Flow

Cash flow indicates a decline in free cash flow, which impacts the company's ability to fund operations and investments internally. Operating cash flow remains strong relative to net income, which is a positive sign. However, the decrease in free cash flow poses a potential risk if the trend continues.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.15B	2.51B	2.28B	1.26B	879.46M
	Gross Profit
1.65B	1.97B	1.87B	932.63M	628.71M
	EBIT
265.23M	747.68M	804.78M	100.18M	-111.59M
	EBITDA
576.37M	1.05B	847.96M	323.33M	262.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
286.40M	655.89M	466.98M	34.11M	-9.76M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
460.23M	281.30M	273.07M	149.91M	676.59M
	Total Assets
3.04B	2.68B	2.70B	2.57B	5.48B
	Total Debt
213.74M	212.33M	404.18M	3.36B	3.86B
	Net Debt
-194.50M	12.96M	131.11M	2.97B	3.18B
	Total Liabilities
1.31B	1.33B	1.54B	4.65B	5.04B
	Stockholders Equity
1.57B	1.34B	1.17B	1.18B	441.81M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
298.40M	690.16M	479.48M	-330.60M	226.57M
	Operating Cash Flow
476.39M	857.95M	650.99M	305.57M	308.42M
	Investing Cash Flow
-165.03M	-259.43M	-142.18M	-127.36M	-120.12M
	Financing Cash Flow
-107.08M	-682.20M	-380.07M	-30.85M	389.65M

Core Natural Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 66.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.02, below the 50-day MA of 71.88, and below the 200-day MA of 92.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNR.

Core Natural Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTU	80 Outperform	$1.60B	4.92	10.33%	2.24%	-7.42%	-26.06%
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.31B	12.07	14.71%	10.87%	-8.53%	-53.44%
NRP	70 Outperform	$1.26B	9.22	31.98%	3.10%	-19.21%	-30.92%
CNR	69 Neutral	$3.56B	13.62	4.36%	1.03%	10.42%	-70.77%
HCC	65 Neutral	$2.42B	22.88	5.20%	0.68%	-21.04%	-75.78%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.16B	3.10	-4.49%	5.66%	0.82%	-49.15%
AMR	53 Neutral	$1.45B	53.33	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%

Core Natural Resources Corporate Events

Core Natural Resources Reports Q1 2025 Net Loss

On May 8, 2025, Core Natural Resources reported a net loss of $69.3 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to merger-related expenses and debt extinguishment. Despite this, the company made significant progress in integrating its operations post-merger, increasing its synergy target by 10% and executing a robust capital return program, returning $106.6 million to investors. The company also made strides in resuming operations at Leer South, with expectations to boost productivity and lower costs in the second half of 2025. Core’s strategic capital market transactions have enhanced its liquidity and financial flexibility, allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in a volatile market.

Core Natural Resources Completes Successful Bond Refinancing

On March 27, 2025, Core Natural Resources successfully completed a refinancing effort involving tax-exempt bonds initially issued by CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources. The refinancing increased the total bond amount from $276 million to $307 million, established a 10-year initial term for the now unsecured bonds maturing in March 2035, and reduced the weighted average interest rate to 5.3% despite a higher interest rate environment. The transactions, which were more than six times oversubscribed, underscore the strength of Core’s operating portfolio and its enhanced diversification and scale, providing significant financial flexibility to support long-term growth. Thirty-nine institutional investors participated in the transactions, with Jefferies LLC and KeyBanc Capital as co-lead bookrunners.