Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.58B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 977.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.45
• Revenue Growth: -23.25%
• EPS Growth: -90.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 52,570,156
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 983,224
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 977,324
• PEG Ratio: -1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -50.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.66
• 1Y Price Target: $101.60
• Price Target Upside: 16.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.03B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $90.00 ▲(3.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and two consecutive years of negative free cash flow, despite a strong low-debt balance sheet. Near-term technicals are also soft. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings call (Blue Creek execution and materially higher 2026 volume guidance with strong contracting and liquidity) and a positive reserve-expanding lease approval, while valuation appears demanding given the very high P/E.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet

Sustained low leverage provides durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles: the company can fund remaining Blue Creek spend, service royalty/installment obligations from new leases, and absorb pricing shocks without immediate external financing. This strengthens resilience and strategic optionality over the next several quarters.

Blue Creek Early, On-Budget Startup and Scale

Early, on-budget ramp of a large longwall materially raises productive capacity and lowers per-ton cash costs. The durable impact is higher volumes (>30% 2026 guidance), improved unit economics, and greater operating leverage that can sustain margin recovery as markets normalize, independent of short-term price swings.

Reserve Expansion via Federal Leases

Adding ~53.2M short tons of recoverable reserves secures long-term feedstock and production optionality, lowering reserve risk and supporting multi-year contract discussions. This increases asset longevity, underpins future volume growth, and reduces dependence on external acquisitions to maintain production levels.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation / Negative FCF

Two consecutive years of negative free cash flow signal a durable weakening in cash conversion that constrains returns and reinvestment. Even with strong liquidity today, persistent negative FCF raises reliance on working capital draws or financing if price realizations worsen, increasing financial risk over the next several quarters.

Material Margin Compression

A sharp multi-year margin erosion reduces the firm's earnings buffer and return on equity, diminishing capital available for growth or distributions. Margin recovery depends heavily on external steelmaking coal pricing and realizations, making profitability vulnerable and limiting durable improvements absent structural market recovery.

Weak Market Fundamentals & Realization Volatility

Persistent weak demand and volatile gross realizations—driven by regional mix, elevated freight and demurrage—create lasting revenue and cashflow variability. Even with operational gains, pricing volatility makes multi-period forecasting and sustainable FCF timing uncertain, heightening execution and market risk.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial customers. Its revenue model is centered on the production and export of high-quality coal, which commands premium prices in the market. The company sells its products under long-term contracts and spot market transactions, diversifying its revenue streams. Key revenue factors include the global demand for steel, fluctuations in coal prices, and operational efficiencies that lower production costs. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal has established strategic partnerships with various steel manufacturers, enhancing its market position and securing consistent sales channels.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong solvency and low leverage support resilience (debt-to-equity improved to ~0.08–0.11), but profitability has fallen sharply from 2022–2023 peaks (net margin down to ~4% in 2025) and recent cash generation is a key weakness with negative free cash flow in both 2024 and 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially from the 2022–2023 peak: net margin fell from ~37% (2022) and ~29% (2023) to ~16% (2024) and ~4% (2025). Revenue has been choppy—down in 2023 and 2024, then up ~7% in 2025—suggesting a more volatile demand/pricing backdrop. Despite the recent slowdown, the company remains profitable in the latest year, which is a clear positive versus the 2020 loss year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with low leverage: debt-to-equity improved meaningfully from ~0.58 (2020) to ~0.08–0.11 (2024–2025). Equity has grown over time, supporting financial flexibility and resilience through commodity cycles. The main weakness is declining shareholder returns as profitability cooled—return on equity fell from ~44% (2022) and ~26% (2023) to ~12% (2024) and ~3% (2025).

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become less supportive: operating cash flow declined from strong levels in 2022–2023 to 2024–2025, and free cash flow turned negative in both 2024 and 2025. In 2025, operating cash flow covered net income by less than 1x, and free cash flow was negative relative to net income—both pointing to weaker cash conversion and/or elevated spending needs. A key strength is the historically strong cash profile in 2021–2023, but the recent two-year trend is a notable concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B
Gross Profit	1.28B	1.48B	601.51M	885.81M	334.62M
EBITDA	235.89M	447.35M	696.74M	929.82M	377.89M
Net Income	57.00M	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.78B	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	353.21M	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M
Total Debt	270.94M	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M
Total Liabilities	642.41M	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M
Stockholders Equity	2.14B	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-91.02M	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M
Operating Cash Flow	229.25M	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-405.15M	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.38M	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 87.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 87.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.64, below the 50-day MA of 90.39, and above the 200-day MA of 66.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	77 Outperform	$3.33B	10.68	16.80%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
BTU	62 Neutral	$4.05B	-76.08	-1.47%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HCC	60 Neutral	$4.58B	80.36	2.69%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
CNR	60 Neutral	$4.54B	-29.86	-5.84%	0.45%	64.05%	-103.03%
METC	56 Neutral	$1.04B	―	-7.40%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%
AMR	54 Neutral	$2.32B	-49.53	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal wins approval for new mining leases

On November 25, 2025, Warrior Met Coal subsidiaries Warrior Met Coal BC and Warrior Met Coal Mining entered into two long-term federal coal leases with the U.S. government’s Bureau of Land Management covering approximately 8,346 acres at Mine No. 1 and 5,704 acres at Mine No. 4, which together hold an estimated 53.2 million short tons of recoverable coal. Under the 20-year minimum term leases, which continue as long as coal is produced in commercial quantities, the company secured exclusive mining rights in exchange for 7% production royalties, annual per-acre rental payments, and indemnification obligations, while committing roughly $32 million for Mine No. 1 and $15 million for Mine No. 4 to be paid in five equal annual installments; on January 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Interior approved the mining plans for both leases, enabling Warrior Met Coal to advance coal development and mining operations on portions of these tracts, potentially expanding its reserve base and future production capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCC) stock is a Hold with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Warrior Met Coal stock, see the HCC Stock Forecast page.