Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
NYSE:HCC
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Warrior Met Coal
(NYSE:HCC)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$100.00
▲(16.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and two consecutive years of negative free cash flow, despite a strong low-debt balance sheet. Near-term technicals are also soft. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings call (Blue Creek execution and materially higher 2026 volume guidance with strong contracting and liquidity) and a positive reserve-expanding lease approval, while valuation appears demanding given the very high P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. This reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to fund sustaining and growth capex, supports contractual commitments, and allows the company to absorb price swings without immediate liquidity stress.
Negative Factors
Two years of negative free cash flow
Consecutive negative free cash flow weakens the firm's self-funding capacity for sustainment and growth. Persisting FCF deficits constrain dividend or buyback flexibility, increase reliance on liquidity reserves, and make the company more sensitive to working-capital swings and commodity price shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. This reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to fund sustaining and growth capex, supports contractual commitments, and allows the company to absorb price swings without immediate liquidity stress.
Read all positive factors
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.51B
Dividend Yield0.36%
Average Volume (3M)836.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)81.3
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth-23.25%
EPS Growth-90.78%
CountryUS
Employees1,336
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding52,570,156
10 Day Avg. Volume591,503
30 Day Avg. Volume836,545
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio-50.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.00Price Target Upside24.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.11B
Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers l...
How the Company Makes Money
Warrior Met Coal makes money primarily by selling metallurgical coal (including premium hard coking coal) to customers in the global steel supply chain. Revenue is largely a function of (1) sales volumes shipped (typically into the seaborne export...
Warrior Met Coal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Warrior Met Coal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a transformational operational year driven by the early, on-budget start-up of Blue Creek that produced substantial volume growth, materially lower cash costs, record sales and production, strong adjusted EBITDA expansion, and solid liquidity. These operational and financial improvements position the company for significantly higher 2026 volumes and long-term margin expansion. Offsetting these positives are persistent weak global steelmaking coal fundamentals, lower net selling prices and volatile gross realizations (impacted by product mix, elevated freight and demurrage), a near-term working capital build and expected negative free cash flow in H1 2026, and elevated inventories that management plans to reduce. Overall, the balance of record operational execution, cost improvement, and strong capital discipline outweighs the market-related headwinds and short-term cash flow pressure.Positive Updates
Blue Creek Early Startup and On-Budget Delivery
Blue Creek longwall began production in Q4 2025 eight months ahead of schedule, on budget, and funded entirely by operating cash flow; Q4 Blue Creek production was 1,300,000 short tons with an achieved quarterly run rate of ~1,500,000 short tons.
Negative Updates
Weak Steelmaking Coal Market Fundamentals
Global steelmaking coal markets remained challenged in 2025; Chinese crude steel production decreased 4.4% while Chinese steel exports rose, contributing to weak fundamentals and continued pricing pressure in the market.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Blue Creek Early Startup and On-Budget Delivery
Blue Creek longwall began production in Q4 2025 eight months ahead of schedule, on budget, and funded entirely by operating cash flow; Q4 Blue Creek production was 1,300,000 short tons with an achieved quarterly run rate of ~1,500,000 short tons.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Warrior Met guided to materially higher volumes and a conservative price band: management expects sales volumes to be >30% above 2025 (implying roughly 12.5–13.5 million short tons) and production >20% above 2025, with Blue Creek contributing about 4.5 million tons (Q4 Blue Creek production was 1.3M with a quarterly run rate of ~1.5M); company-contracted volume is ~90% of total sales (85% of Blue Creek), and sales guidance is ~0.5M tons above production to draw inventory down from 1.6M tons at 12/31/25 to just below 1.0M; price and cost assumptions include a PLV index range of $185–$215/short ton, gross price realization ~75% for 2026 (management’s long‑term expectation 80–85%), cash cost guidance of $95–$110/ton, remaining Blue Creek construction CapEx of $50–$75M (total project spend to date $957M of a $995–$1,075M estimate), expected 2026 FCF negative in 1H and positive in 2H, available liquidity of $484M (cash $300M, short‑term investments $43M, $141M ABL), and an estimated ~$40M 45X tax credit that may largely offset 2026 cash taxes depending on prices.Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31B | 1.53B | 1.68B | 1.74B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 1.28B | 1.48B | 601.51M | 885.81M | 334.62M |
| EBITDA | 235.89M | 447.35M | 696.74M | 929.82M | 377.89M |
| Net Income | 57.00M | 250.60M | 478.63M | 641.30M | 150.88M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.78B | 2.59B | 2.36B | 2.03B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 353.21M | 506.17M | 747.23M | 838.09M | 404.34M |
| Total Debt | 270.94M | 173.04M | 173.24M | 335.68M | 391.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 642.41M | 500.70M | 482.61M | 580.58M | 592.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.87B | 1.45B | 871.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -91.02M | -89.77M | 209.43M | 633.16M | 293.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 229.25M | 367.45M | 701.11M | 841.90M | 351.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -405.15M | -538.00M | -527.21M | -255.14M | -71.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.38M | -68.51M | -265.18M | -153.12M | -96.47M |
Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis
Negative
85.70
Price Trends
88.08
Negative
87.43
Negative
73.54
Positive
Market Momentum
1.11
Positive
42.98
Neutral
17.87
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.93, below the 50-day MA of 88.08, and above the 200-day MA of 73.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCC.
Warrior Met Coal Risk Analysis
Warrior Met Coal disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Warrior Met Coal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.41B | 9.58 | 17.15% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
69 Neutral | $3.37B | -68.38 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
66 Neutral | $2.37B | -42.11 | -3.88% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
65 Neutral | $4.48B | -29.70 | -4.05% | 0.45% | 64.05% | -103.03% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $4.51B | 81.30 | 2.71% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
50 Neutral | $884.33M | -18.74 | -12.01% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
85.70
39.16
84.15%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.51
2.76
11.64%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
185.20
69.29
59.78%
METC
Ramaco Resources
13.77
5.75
71.61%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
27.71
15.85
133.58%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
88.23
15.78
21.77%
Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Warrior Met Coal wins approval for new mining leases
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On November 25, 2025, Warrior Met Coal subsidiaries Warrior Met Coal BC and Warrior Met Coal Mining entered into two long-term federal coal leases with the U.S. government’s Bureau of Land Management covering approximately 8,346 acres at Min...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.