Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.04B
• Dividend Yield: 0.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -27.62%
• EPS Growth: -90.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 52,569,347
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 897,618
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,132,289
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.43
• 1Y Price Target: $63.67
• Price Target Upside: 7.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $63.00 ▲(6.22% Upside)

Warrior Met Coal's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and the earnings call highlighted both operational successes and market challenges. The company's strong balance sheet and cost management efforts are positive, but declining profitability and liquidity concerns weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Warrior's 1Q EBITDA beat consensus, due to higher-than-expected volumes and lower-than-expected costs.

Financial Performance

The successful launch of Blue Creek is expected to lead to industry-leading free cash flow and capital returns, even if the met coal price remains low.

Project Development

The Blue Creek project remains on time and budget, allowing HCC to begin shipping small amounts of Blue Creek coal ahead of schedule.

Negative Factors

Market Fundamentals

There is concern about coal market fundamentals, which affects overall sentiment despite the positive developments at Blue Creek.

Market Outlook

Coal market weakness is a clear ongoing concern.

Trade and Demand Uncertainty

Management believes challenges such as trade uncertainty, seasonal demand weakness, and ample supply are likely to continue.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal, which is sold to steel producers around the world. The company's revenue model is largely based on long-term contracts with key customers, as well as spot market sales. These contracts often have pricing mechanisms tied to benchmark prices, ensuring that the company can capitalize on fluctuations in market demand and pricing. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal benefits from strategic partnerships with major steel manufacturers and has established a strong presence in international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, which contributes to its earnings. The company's operational efficiency and cost management practices also play a significant role in its profitability, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing while ensuring healthy margins.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Warrior Met Coal exhibits strong balance sheet fundamentals with a focus on equity financing and low leverage. However, declining revenue and profitability margins highlight challenges in operational efficiency. The company maintains positive net income and operating cash flows, but reduced free cash flow signals potential constraints on future growth investments.

Income Statement

The company shows a consistent decline in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a contraction phase. The gross profit margin has significantly decreased from the previous year, affecting overall profitability. However, the company has managed to maintain a positive net income despite the revenue decline, indicating cost controls. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains strong with a high equity ratio and decreasing debt levels, indicating financial stability. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio below 1, showcasing a low leverage level. The return on equity has decreased, reflecting lower profitability in relation to shareholder equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a robust capital structure with a focus on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow due to higher capital expenditures, which has negatively impacted cash reserves. The operating cash flow remains positive, indicating effective cash generation from core operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has declined, suggesting reduced cash availability for reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B	782.74M
Gross Profit	375.87M	1.48B	601.51M	1.00B	476.04M	123.83M
EBITDA	165.04M	447.35M	700.91M	920.86M	380.02M	97.50M
Net Income	40.34M	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M	-35.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.65B	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	431.09M	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M	220.42M
Total Debt	235.71M	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M	418.38M
Total Liabilities	565.12M	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M	668.70M
Stockholders Equity	2.08B	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M	725.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-225.16M	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M	25.14M
Operating Cash Flow	164.88M	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M	112.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-486.79M	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M	-108.19M
Financing Cash Flow	3.88M	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M	14.10M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 59.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.91, above the 50-day MA of 52.10, and above the 200-day MA of 52.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	73 Outperform	$1.33B	9.52	28.59%	4.06%	-20.92%	-26.59%
ARLP	72 Outperform	$2.97B	12.73	12.59%	11.50%	-8.59%	-55.01%
BTU	67 Neutral	$2.01B	16.12	3.87%	1.88%	-5.83%	-73.88%
HCC	66 Neutral	$3.04B	75.16	1.95%	0.54%	-27.62%	-90.48%
METC	63 Neutral	$1.32B	43.10	-5.55%	2.03%	-12.79%	-134.14%
AMR	57 Neutral	$1.80B	64.14	-2.29%	0.36%	-29.63%	-108.26%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.54B	-7.28	-18.84%	4.39%	-0.73%	-40.90%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal Updates Bylaws for Shareholder Clarity

On July 28, 2025, Warrior Met Coal‘s Board of Directors approved an amendment to the company’s Second Amended and Restated Bylaws. This amendment clarifies the timeframe for stockholders to submit notices of business or Proxy Access Notices for annual meetings scheduled outside the typical anniversary window, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and procedural clarity.