Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.98B
• Dividend Yield: 0.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 843.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 113.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -23.25%
• EPS Growth: -90.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 52,570,156
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,097,417
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 843,275
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.20
• 1Y Price Target: $81.75
• Price Target Upside: 11.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.28B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $88.00 ▲(20.43% Upside)

Warrior Met Coal's stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges and high valuation. Despite strong operational achievements and positive technical indicators, the high P/E ratio and cash flow issues weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Starting Blue Creek operations early demonstrates strong execution and operational efficiency, which can enhance long-term productivity and cost management.

Production and Sales Growth

The increase in production and sales volume indicates strong market demand and operational capability, supporting revenue growth and market position.

Strategic Resource Acquisition

Acquiring additional coal reserves strengthens resource security and extends the operational lifespan, supporting long-term strategic growth.

Negative Factors

Weak Market Conditions

Weak market conditions can suppress pricing power and demand, potentially impacting revenue and profitability in the medium term.

Decreased Selling Prices

Falling selling prices reduce revenue per unit, pressuring margins and profitability, which can affect financial performance if sustained.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting financial flexibility and the ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial customers. Its revenue model is centered on the production and export of high-quality coal, which commands premium prices in the market. The company sells its products under long-term contracts and spot market transactions, diversifying its revenue streams. Key revenue factors include the global demand for steel, fluctuations in coal prices, and operational efficiencies that lower production costs. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal has established strategic partnerships with various steel manufacturers, enhancing its market position and securing consistent sales channels.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Warrior Met Coal's financial statements indicate challenges in profitability and cash flow, despite some revenue growth. The income statement shows declining margins, while the balance sheet remains strong with low leverage. Cash flow issues could pose risks if not addressed.

Income Statement

Warrior Met Coal's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is relatively low at 30.74% compared to the previous year's 97.02%, indicating a significant decline in profitability. The net profit margin also decreased to 3.30% from 16.43% in the previous year. However, there is a positive revenue growth rate of 7.1% in the TTM, suggesting some recovery in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Warrior Met Coal is relatively stable. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.113, indicating a conservative leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.94% in the TTM from 11.99% in the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 78.93%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -33.66% in the TTM, indicating a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B	782.74M
Gross Profit	362.46M	1.48B	601.51M	885.81M	334.62M	5.74M
EBITDA	150.69M	447.35M	696.74M	929.82M	377.89M	94.50M
Net Income	35.17M	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M	-35.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.68B	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	392.52M	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M	220.42M
Total Debt	236.57M	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M	418.38M
Total Liabilities	564.82M	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M	668.70M
Stockholders Equity	2.12B	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M	725.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-169.57M	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M	25.14M
Operating Cash Flow	207.36M	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M	112.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-448.12M	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M	-108.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.79M	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M	14.10M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 73.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.24, above the 50-day MA of 67.63, and above the 200-day MA of 54.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	72 Outperform	$3.06B	12.64	13.07%	10.90%	-9.45%	-46.37%
HCC	66 Neutral	$3.98B	113.45	1.67%	0.42%	-23.25%	-90.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
BTU	61 Neutral	$3.36B	―	-0.87%	1.08%	-7.21%	-106.39%
AMR	57 Neutral	$2.06B	―	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
METC	48 Neutral	$1.10B	-28.54	-7.40%	2.76%	-16.99%	-184.02%
CNR	42 Neutral	$4.08B	―	-1.64%	0.39%	64.05%	-103.03%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal’s Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Market Challenges

Warrior Met Coal’s recent earnings call painted a picture of strong operational achievements and financial performance, despite facing challenges from weak market conditions and additional supply pressures. The company expressed optimism about its long-term growth strategy, underscoring its commitment to driving shareholder value.

Warrior Met Coal Reports Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Advancements

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is a leading U.S.-based producer and exporter of high-quality steelmaking coal, primarily serving the global steel industry with a focus on environmentally and socially responsible mining operations.

Warrior Met Coal Updates Segment Reporting for Blue Creek

Warrior Met Coal announced changes to its segment reporting following the commencement of revenue-generating activities at the Blue Creek mine in the second quarter of 2025. The company has recast prior period financial information to reflect these changes, although no revenues or costs were associated with the Blue Creek mine. This update, required by SEC rules, does not amend previously issued financial statements but illustrates the impact of the segment changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCC) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Warrior Met Coal stock, see the HCC Stock Forecast page.

Warrior Met Coal Amends Credit Agreement for Growth

On August 28, 2025, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, increasing its borrowing capacity by $27 million to a total of $143 million. The amendment also extends the maturity date of the credit facility and modifies certain borrowing base calculations, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCC) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Warrior Met Coal stock, see the HCC Stock Forecast page.

Warrior Met Coal’s Mixed Earnings Call: Achievements & Challenges

The recent earnings call of Warrior Met Coal revealed a mixed sentiment, highlighting both operational achievements and significant market challenges. While the company has made notable progress in its Blue Creek project and reported increased sales and production volumes, it is also grappling with pricing pressures and a substantial decline in net income, resulting in negative free cash flow.

Warrior Met Coal Reports Q2 2025 Earnings

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is a U.S.-based company dedicated to mining and exporting high-quality steelmaking coal for the global steel industry, with operations centered in Alabama. In its second quarter of 2025, Warrior Met Coal reported a net income of $5.6 million, a significant decrease from the $70.7 million reported in the same period of 2024. This decline was largely attributed to weaker market conditions, with a 24% drop in the average index price for premium low-vol steelmaking coal. Despite these challenges, the company achieved the first commercial sales of Blue Creek steelmaking coal ahead of schedule, contributing to strong cash margins and positive operating cash flows.