Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.69B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 740.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 137.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.42
• Revenue Growth: -23.25%
• EPS Growth: -90.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 52,570,156
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 891,454
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 740,625
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.49
• 1Y Price Target: $93.33
• Price Target Upside: 1.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $94.00 ▲(2.07% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: a strong balance sheet is offset by sharply weaker margins and declining free cash flow. Technicals add a neutral backdrop (longer-term uptrend but short-term weakness). Valuation is the largest drag due to the very high P/E, while the earnings call provides support from improved production guidance and strong operational execution despite ongoing coal pricing headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and a high equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility, allowing the company to fund capital projects, absorb coal price cycles, and meet lease payment commitments without relying heavily on external debt, supporting long-term operational resilience.

Project Execution & Production Upside

Early commissioning of Blue Creek and a raised production guide indicate strong project execution and lower ramp risk. Sustained higher volumes improve fixed-cost absorption, enhancing long-term EBITDA capacity and supporting durable cash generation if market pricing stabilizes.

Expanded Reserve Base via Federal Leases

Securing long-term federal leases and approved mining plans materially expands recoverable reserves and mine life. This structural access to high-quality coal underpins sustained production potential and justifies ongoing infrastructure and capital investment over multiple decades.

Negative Factors

Profit Margin Collapse

A severe deterioration in gross and net margins signals weakening pricing power and/or rising costs. Persistently compressed margins reduce cash available for reinvestment and returns to shareholders, and make the business more vulnerable to cyclical revenue shocks over the medium term.

Weak Free Cash Flow Generation

Declining free cash flow and operating cash shortfalls versus reported earnings constrain the company's ability to self-fund Blue Creek capex, lease obligations, or dividends. Continued weak cash conversion may force external financing or slower investment pacing.

Persistent Market Oversupply & Pricing Pressure

Structural oversupply in seaborne steelmaking coal and heightened Chinese export volumes create sustained downward pressure on realized prices. Prolonged weak demand/pricing can permanently depress revenue per ton and delay margin recovery despite operational gains.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial customers. Its revenue model is centered on the production and export of high-quality coal, which commands premium prices in the market. The company sells its products under long-term contracts and spot market transactions, diversifying its revenue streams. Key revenue factors include the global demand for steel, fluctuations in coal prices, and operational efficiencies that lower production costs. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal has established strategic partnerships with various steel manufacturers, enhancing its market position and securing consistent sales channels.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue grew 7.1% TTM, but profitability fell sharply (gross margin down to 30.74% from 97.02%; net margin down to 3.30% from 16.43%). The balance sheet is a strength with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.113) and a high equity ratio (78.93%), but cash generation is weakening (free cash flow growth -33.66% and operating cash flow to net income at 0.89).

Income Statement

Warrior Met Coal's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is relatively low at 30.74% compared to the previous year's 97.02%, indicating a significant decline in profitability. The net profit margin also decreased to 3.30% from 16.43% in the previous year. However, there is a positive revenue growth rate of 7.1% in the TTM, suggesting some recovery in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Warrior Met Coal is relatively stable. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.113, indicating a conservative leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.94% in the TTM from 11.99% in the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 78.93%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -33.66% in the TTM, indicating a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B	782.74M
Gross Profit	362.46M	1.48B	601.51M	885.81M	334.62M	5.74M
EBITDA	150.69M	447.35M	696.74M	929.82M	377.89M	94.50M
Net Income	35.17M	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M	-35.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.68B	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	392.52M	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M	220.42M
Total Debt	236.57M	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M	418.38M
Total Liabilities	564.82M	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M	668.70M
Stockholders Equity	2.12B	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M	725.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-169.57M	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M	25.14M
Operating Cash Flow	207.36M	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M	112.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-448.12M	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M	-108.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.79M	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M	14.10M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 92.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 92.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.46, above the 50-day MA of 87.54, and above the 200-day MA of 63.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	72 Outperform	$3.06B	12.83	13.07%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HCC	61 Neutral	$4.69B	137.92	1.67%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
BTU	61 Neutral	$4.29B	-121.71	-0.87%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
CNR	57 Neutral	$4.89B	-229.39	-1.64%	0.45%	64.05%	-103.03%
METC	56 Neutral	$1.22B	-33.46	-7.40%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%
AMR	54 Neutral	$2.70B	-58.79	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal wins approval for new mining leases

On November 25, 2025, Warrior Met Coal subsidiaries Warrior Met Coal BC and Warrior Met Coal Mining entered into two long-term federal coal leases with the U.S. government’s Bureau of Land Management covering approximately 8,346 acres at Mine No. 1 and 5,704 acres at Mine No. 4, which together hold an estimated 53.2 million short tons of recoverable coal. Under the 20-year minimum term leases, which continue as long as coal is produced in commercial quantities, the company secured exclusive mining rights in exchange for 7% production royalties, annual per-acre rental payments, and indemnification obligations, while committing roughly $32 million for Mine No. 1 and $15 million for Mine No. 4 to be paid in five equal annual installments; on January 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Interior approved the mining plans for both leases, enabling Warrior Met Coal to advance coal development and mining operations on portions of these tracts, potentially expanding its reserve base and future production capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCC) stock is a Hold with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Warrior Met Coal stock, see the HCC Stock Forecast page.