Want to see HCC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Warrior Met Coal
(NYSE:HCC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(11.15% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/03/26
Resilient balance sheet and bullish technical trends drive the score, tempered by income volatility, high P/E valuation, and cash flow strains; positive earnings guidance and governance events provide supportive uplift in a cyclical coal sector.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage provides durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles: with debt-to-equity near 0.09 the company can fund operations, capex and cycles from equity/cash, lowering insolvency risk and preserving optionality for investment or shareholder returns when cash generation normalizes.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversion
Persistent negative free cash flow reduces the company's ability to sustainably fund dividends, buybacks or build liquidity buffers. Over several years this weak cash conversion can constrain capital allocation, force reliance on existing cash or credit, and amplify vulnerability to demand shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage provides durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles: with debt-to-equity near 0.09 the company can fund operations, capex and cycles from equity/cash, lowering insolvency risk and preserving optionality for investment or shareholder returns when cash generation normalizes.
Read all positive factors
Warrior Met Coal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales by product line, customer type, or geography so you can see what drives cash flow and profit. For a metallurgical coal producer like Warrior Met, this reveals dependence on steelmakers, the split between contract and spot sales, and which product grades or markets generate the most revenue—critical for assessing price sensitivity and growth prospects.
Breaks down sales by product line, customer type, or geography so you can see what drives cash flow and profit. For a metallurgical coal producer like Warrior Met, this reveals dependence on steelmakers, the split between contract and spot sales, and which product grades or markets generate the most revenue—critical for assessing price sensitivity and growth prospects.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWarrior Met Coal (HCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.19B
Dividend Yield0.4%
Average Volume (3M)671.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.3
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth11.32%
EPS Growth29.65%
CountryUS
Employees1,485
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.62
Shares Outstanding52,801,964
10 Day Avg. Volume559,574
30 Day Avg. Volume671,750
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio-50.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.75Price Target Upside32.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)5.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.99B
Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama. Its primary client base consists o...
How the Company Makes Money
Warrior Met Coal makes money primarily by selling metallurgical (coking) coal to steel producers and other customers, with sales largely tied to seaborne export markets as well as domestic deliveries. Revenue is generated on a per-ton basis: the c...
Warrior Met Coal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple substantial operational and financial wins—completion of Blue Creek on budget, record production and sales, materially higher revenues and adjusted EBITDA, lower per-ton cash costs, and maintained liquidity—while acknowledging temporary cash flow and working capital impacts, inventory accumulation, margin realization headwinds from index relativity shifts, and emerging inflationary and geopolitical risks. Management expects the working capital and cash flow timing issues to improve later in the year and reaffirmed full-year guidance.Positive Updates
Successful Completion of Blue Creek Project on Budget and Ahead of Schedule
Completed final construction and project spending for Blue Creek with total project capital expenditures a little over $1 billion, delivered on budget and ahead of schedule, fully funded from cash from operations without incurring any funded debt.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow Shortfall
Free cash flow was negative $890 million in Q1 2026 due to negative operating cash flow of $12 million combined with capital expenditures of $80 million. Operating cash flows were $88 million lower than Q1 2025, largely timing-related and expected to reverse.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Completion of Blue Creek Project on Budget and Ahead of Schedule
Completed final construction and project spending for Blue Creek with total project capital expenditures a little over $1 billion, delivered on budget and ahead of schedule, fully funded from cash from operations without incurring any funded debt.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook and guidance (as communicated in February), saying Q1 results were generally in line or ahead of internal plans and that volumes should remain higher for the balance of the year to meet guidance; they expect steelmaking coal markets to remain generally consistent absent major supply/demand disruptions or a prolonged Middle East conflict but cautioned on inflationary cost pressures (steel roof supports, tungsten bits, diesel) that could add “a few dollars per ton” to cash costs. Key metrics tied to the guidance: Q1 free cash flow was negative $890 million (driven by negative $12 million operating cash flow and $80 million capex) but management expects free cash flow to turn positive in Q2; Q1 cash cost per ton FOB was ~$96; the company completed Blue Creek with total project capex a little over $1 billion (final $66 million in Q1) paid from cash without funded debt; Q1 benefited from a $3/ton 45X tax credit (~$8.4 million); available liquidity at March 31 was $364 million (including $20 million short-term investments and $141 million available on the ABL); SG&A is on track with guidance, inventory management will be prioritized through the year (Q1 inventory 1.9 million short tons), and any resumed shareholder returns (rising quarterly dividend plus supplemental specials and selective buybacks) would depend on when cash generation allows, likely in the back half of the year if timing holds.Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.31B | 1.53B | 1.68B | 1.74B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 561.32M | 111.23M | 1.48B | 601.51M | 885.81M | 334.62M |
| EBITDA | 356.45M | 254.52M | 447.35M | 696.74M | 929.82M | 377.89M |
| Net Income | 137.51M | 57.00M | 250.60M | 478.63M | 641.30M | 150.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.82B | 2.78B | 2.59B | 2.36B | 2.03B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.24M | 353.21M | 506.17M | 747.23M | 838.09M | 404.34M |
| Total Debt | 266.50M | 270.94M | 173.04M | 173.24M | 335.68M | 391.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 618.99M | 642.41M | 500.70M | 482.61M | 580.58M | 592.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.20B | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.87B | 1.45B | 871.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -134.64M | -91.02M | -89.77M | 209.43M | 633.16M | 293.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.60M | 229.25M | 367.45M | 701.11M | 841.90M | 351.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -384.81M | -405.15M | -538.00M | -527.21M | -255.14M | -71.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.83M | -15.38M | -68.51M | -265.18M | -153.12M | -96.47M |
Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis
Negative
80.07
Price Trends
87.54
Negative
88.00
Negative
85.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.08
Negative
43.35
Neutral
52.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 80.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.21, below the 50-day MA of 87.54, and below the 200-day MA of 85.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCC.
Warrior Met Coal Risk Analysis
Warrior Met Coal disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Warrior Met Coal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.34B | 12.60 | 14.82% | 9.71% | -5.11% | 13.03% | |
73 Outperform | $4.19B | 30.31 | 6.44% | 0.40% | 11.32% | 29.65% | |
66 Neutral | $4.02B | -65.44 | -1.69% | 0.48% | 58.34% | -125.12% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $2.60B | -14.18 | -3.37% | 1.32% | -0.68% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $568.30M | -8.19 | -13.44% | ― | -16.66% | -195120.00% | |
42 Neutral | $1.74B | -45.57 | -2.47% | ― | -19.15% | -246.35% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
79.41
26.93
51.31%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
25.95
1.67
6.89%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
137.16
18.54
15.63%
METC
Ramaco Resources
9.17
-12.63
-57.94%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
21.32
4.74
28.57%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
79.84
3.66
4.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.