Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.04B
• Dividend Yield: 0.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 886.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -27.62%
• EPS Growth: -90.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 52,569,347
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 776,834
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 886,001
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.43
• 1Y Price Target: $63.80
• Price Target Upside: 10.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▲(12.32% Upside)

Warrior Met Coal's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and while operational improvements are noted, market challenges persist. The company's strategic initiatives, such as the acceleration of Blue Creek's development, provide some optimism.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Effective cost management enhances Warrior Met Coal's competitive edge, allowing it to maintain profitability despite market challenges.

Strategic Expansion

Accelerating Blue Creek's development strengthens future production capacity, positioning the company for long-term growth in steelmaking coal.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low leverage provides financial flexibility, supporting sustainable operations and strategic investments.

Negative Factors

Declining Profitability

Low profitability margins indicate difficulty in converting revenue into profit, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow suggests liquidity challenges, limiting the company's ability to fund operations and growth without external financing.

Market Challenges

Persistent market challenges from global steel dynamics could hinder revenue growth and exert pressure on pricing and margins.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal, which is sold to steel producers around the world. The company's revenue model is largely based on long-term contracts with key customers, as well as spot market sales. These contracts often have pricing mechanisms tied to benchmark prices, ensuring that the company can capitalize on fluctuations in market demand and pricing. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal benefits from strategic partnerships with major steel manufacturers and has established a strong presence in international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, which contributes to its earnings. The company's operational efficiency and cost management practices also play a significant role in its profitability, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing while ensuring healthy margins.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Warrior Met Coal's financial performance is mixed. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but the income statement shows declining profitability and revenue. Cash flow analysis indicates potential liquidity challenges with negative free cash flow despite positive growth.

Income Statement

Warrior Met Coal's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is 30.74%, a decline from the previous year, indicating reduced profitability. The net profit margin is low at 3.30%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue has decreased by 7.49% in the TTM, showing a negative growth trend. However, the company has maintained a positive EBIT margin of 3.85% and an EBITDA margin of 13.50%, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 1.94%, showing limited profitability from equity. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 38.66%, but the free cash flow is negative, indicating cash outflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, suggesting that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.22B	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B	782.74M
Gross Profit	375.87M	1.48B	601.51M	1.00B	476.04M	123.83M
EBITDA	165.04M	447.35M	700.91M	920.86M	380.02M	97.50M
Net Income	40.34M	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M	-35.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.65B	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	431.09M	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M	220.42M
Total Debt	235.71M	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M	418.38M
Total Liabilities	565.12M	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M	668.70M
Stockholders Equity	2.08B	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M	725.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-225.16M	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M	25.14M
Operating Cash Flow	164.88M	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M	112.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-486.79M	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M	-108.19M
Financing Cash Flow	3.88M	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M	14.10M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 57.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.49, above the 50-day MA of 56.09, and above the 200-day MA of 52.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	72 Outperform	$2.92B	12.51	12.59%	11.86%	-8.59%	-55.01%
METC	67 Neutral	$1.51B	43.10	-5.55%	1.97%	-12.79%	-134.14%
BTU	67 Neutral	$2.24B	17.99	3.87%	1.63%	-5.83%	-73.88%
HCC	64 Neutral	$3.04B	75.19	1.95%	0.55%	-27.62%	-90.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.39	-0.05%	2.88%	2.86%	-36.73%
AMR	57 Neutral	$1.87B	64.14	-2.29%	0.36%	-29.63%	-108.26%
CNR	48 Neutral	$3.75B	33.24	0.79%	0.41%	45.25%	-83.80%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal Amends Credit Agreement for Growth

On August 28, 2025, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, increasing its borrowing capacity by $27 million to a total of $143 million. The amendment also extends the maturity date of the credit facility and modifies certain borrowing base calculations, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and operational stability.

Warrior Met Coal Updates Bylaws for Shareholder Clarity

On July 28, 2025, Warrior Met Coal‘s Board of Directors approved an amendment to the company’s Second Amended and Restated Bylaws. This amendment clarifies the timeframe for stockholders to submit notices of business or Proxy Access Notices for annual meetings scheduled outside the typical anniversary window, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and procedural clarity.