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Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
NYSE:HCC
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Warrior Met Coal
(NYSE:HCC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▼(-16.33% Downside)
Warrior Met Coal's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call highlights and positive technical indicators. However, financial performance challenges and high valuation metrics weigh down the score. The company's strategic initiatives and operational achievements provide optimism, but market conditions and cash flow issues pose risks.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
Starting Blue Creek operations early demonstrates strong execution and operational efficiency, which can enhance long-term productivity and cost management.
Production and Sales Growth
The increase in production and sales volume indicates strong market demand and operational capability, supporting revenue growth and market position.
Strategic Resource Acquisition
Acquiring additional coal reserves strengthens resource security and extends the operational lifespan, supporting long-term strategic growth.
Negative Factors
Weak Market Conditions
Weak market conditions can suppress pricing power and demand, potentially impacting revenue and profitability in the medium term.
Decreased Selling Prices
Falling selling prices reduce revenue per unit, pressuring margins and profitability, which can affect financial performance if sustained.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting financial flexibility and the ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.83B
Dividend Yield0.36%
Average Volume (3M)602.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)143.2
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth-23.25%
EPS Growth-90.78%
CountryUS
Employees1,336
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding52,570,156
10 Day Avg. Volume396,202
30 Day Avg. Volume602,492
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-31.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$83.00Price Target Upside-13.19% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWarrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
How the Company Makes MoneyWarrior Met Coal generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial customers. Its revenue model is centered on the production and export of high-quality coal, which commands premium prices in the market. The company sells its products under long-term contracts and spot market transactions, diversifying its revenue streams. Key revenue factors include the global demand for steel, fluctuations in coal prices, and operational efficiencies that lower production costs. Additionally, Warrior Met Coal has established strategic partnerships with various steel manufacturers, enhancing its market position and securing consistent sales channels.
Warrior Met Coal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Warrior showcased strong operational achievements and financial performance with the early start of Blue Creek operations and record sales volumes. However, this was offset by persistent weak market conditions and pressure from additional supply. Despite the challenges, Warrior remains optimistic about its long-term growth strategy.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Early Start of Blue Creek Longwall Operations
The Blue Creek longwall operations started 8 months ahead of schedule, showcasing exceptional execution and commitment to driving shareholder value.
Increased Production and Sales Volume
Production volume increased by 10% for 2025, with Blue Creek mine expected to produce 1.8 million short tons of high-vol steelmaking coal, an 80% increase over initial guidance.
Successful Federal Coal Lease Acquisition
Warrior won a bid for 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves, enhancing long-term value and extending the life of core mining operations.
Record Quarterly Sales Volume
Achieved record high quarterly sales volume of 2.4 million short tons, a 27% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Strong Financial Position
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 32% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting higher sales volumes and better net selling prices.
Negative Updates
Weak Steelmaking Coal Market Conditions
Ongoing weak market conditions due to increased Chinese steel exports, subdued global demand, and oversupplied seaborne steelmaking coal markets.
Decreased Average Net Selling Price
Average net selling price decreased to $136 per short ton compared to $172 in the third quarter of last year, a 21% drop.
Lower Gross Price Realization
Achieved gross price realization of 83% in the third quarter, below the targeted range of 85% to 90%.
Pressure from Additional Supply
Anticipated additional supply coming online, which could keep pricing weak and range-bound.
Company Guidance
During the Warrior Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year, driven by several key operational and financial metrics. The production volume guidance for the full year 2025 was increased by approximately 10%, primarily due to the early start of the Blue Creek longwall operations, which commenced eight months ahead of schedule. This early start is expected to result in an 80% increase in Blue Creek's production to 1.8 million short tons of high-vol steelmaking coal, contributing to a strong third-quarter net income and adjusted EBITDA. The company also noted an increase in sales volume, achieving a record quarterly sales volume of 2.4 million short tons, representing a 27% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Warrior's cash cost of sales per ton decreased, reflecting tightly managed operational costs, and capital expenditures for Blue Creek remain on budget, with a total project cost estimate between $995 million and $1.075 billion. The successful bid for an additional 58 million short tons of high-quality coal reserves is expected to bolster the company's long-term value proposition. Looking ahead, the company plans to continue focusing on ramping up longwall production and optimizing infrastructure performance, although it remains cautious about ongoing market challenges and potential impacts on pricing.Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Warrior Met Coal's financial statements indicate challenges in profitability and cash flow, despite some revenue growth. The income statement shows declining margins, while the balance sheet remains strong with low leverage. Cash flow issues could pose risks if not addressed.Income Statement
Warrior Met Coal's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is relatively low at 30.74% compared to the previous year's 97.02%, indicating a significant decline in profitability. The net profit margin also decreased to 3.30% from 16.43% in the previous year. However, there is a positive revenue growth rate of 7.1% in the TTM, suggesting some recovery in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Warrior Met Coal is relatively stable. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.113, indicating a conservative leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.94% in the TTM from 11.99% in the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 78.93%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -33.66% in the TTM, indicating a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential cash flow issues.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.53B | 1.68B | 1.74B | 1.06B | 782.74M |
| Gross Profit | 362.46M | 1.48B | 601.51M | 885.81M | 334.62M | 5.74M |
| EBITDA | 150.69M | 447.35M | 696.74M | 929.82M | 377.89M | 94.50M |
| Net Income | 35.17M | 250.60M | 478.63M | 641.30M | 150.88M | -35.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.68B | 2.59B | 2.36B | 2.03B | 1.46B | 1.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 392.52M | 506.17M | 747.23M | 838.09M | 404.34M | 220.42M |
| Total Debt | 236.57M | 173.04M | 173.24M | 335.68M | 391.86M | 418.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 564.82M | 500.70M | 482.61M | 580.58M | 592.23M | 668.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.12B | 2.09B | 1.87B | 1.45B | 871.98M | 725.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -169.57M | -89.77M | 209.43M | 633.16M | 293.65M | 25.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 207.36M | 367.45M | 701.11M | 841.90M | 351.54M | 112.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -448.12M | -538.00M | -527.21M | -255.14M | -71.15M | -108.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.79M | -68.51M | -265.18M | -153.12M | -96.47M | 14.10M |
Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis
Positive
95.61
Price Trends
80.70
Positive
71.31
Positive
60.15
Positive
Market Momentum
3.52
Negative
80.07
Negative
78.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.56, above the 50-day MA of 80.70, and above the 200-day MA of 60.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCC.
Warrior Met Coal Risk Analysis
Warrior Met Coal disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Warrior Met Coal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.06B | 12.73 | 13.07% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
69 Neutral | $4.83B | 143.19 | 1.67% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $3.91B | -113.22 | -0.87% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
59 Neutral | $2.86B | -64.71 | -2.87% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
57 Neutral | $4.71B | -226.00 | -1.64% | 0.45% | 64.05% | -103.03% | |
54 Neutral | $1.25B | -34.73 | -7.40% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
95.61
45.47
90.69%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
24.07
-0.56
-2.27%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
230.91
54.24
30.70%
METC
Ramaco Resources
20.25
11.91
142.81%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
32.80
15.21
86.47%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
93.97
-6.08
-6.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.