Warrior Met Coal (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.70B
• Dividend Yield: 0.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -21.04%
• EPS Growth: -75.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,336
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 52,559,284
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,412,461
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,261,993
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.29
• 1Y Price Target: $61.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $54.00 ▲(5.10%Upside)

Warrior Met Coal's overall score is driven by a balance between strong financial stability and the challenges posed by declining revenue and profitability. The technical analysis indicates mixed signals, while the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call reflects adverse market conditions but highlights effective cost management and project progress.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Warrior's 1Q EBITDA beat consensus, due to higher-than-expected volumes and lower-than-expected costs.

Operational Achievement

Warrior shares have significantly outperformed other US coal miners due to the company's operational achievements and milestones met for the Blue Creek development.

Project Development

The Blue Creek project remains on time and budget, allowing HCC to begin shipping small amounts of Blue Creek coal ahead of schedule.

Negative Factors

Earnings

Warrior Met Coal reported 4Q adjusted EBITDA of $53M, missing the $74M consensus on a weaker top line and higher cash cost/ton.

Market Conditions

Coal market weakness is a clear ongoing concern.

Market Outlook

Met coal markets have been very weak, and the outlook for the remainder of 2025 is not good, especially if trade wars negatively affect global growth.

Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

How the Company Makes Money

Warrior Met Coal generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of metallurgical coal, which is primarily used in steel production. The company's revenue model is centered around mining and exporting premium-grade coal to global markets, particularly in Asia, Europe, and South America. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts with steel manufacturers, spot market sales, and strategic partnerships with logistics providers to facilitate efficient coal transportation. The company's earnings are influenced by global steel demand, coal pricing, and operational efficiency in its mining operations.

Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Warrior Met Coal exhibits strong balance sheet fundamentals with a focus on equity financing and low leverage. However, declining revenue and profitability margins highlight challenges in operational efficiency. The company maintains positive net income and operating cash flows, but reduced free cash flow signals potential constraints on future growth investments.

Income Statement

The company shows a consistent decline in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a contraction phase. The gross profit margin has significantly decreased from the previous year, affecting overall profitability. However, the company has managed to maintain a positive net income despite the revenue decline, indicating cost controls. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains strong with a high equity ratio and decreasing debt levels, indicating financial stability. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio below 1, showcasing a low leverage level. The return on equity has decreased, reflecting lower profitability in relation to shareholder equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a robust capital structure with a focus on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow due to higher capital expenditures, which has negatively impacted cash reserves. The operating cash flow remains positive, indicating effective cash generation from core operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has declined, suggesting reduced cash availability for reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.53B	1.68B	1.74B	1.06B	782.74M
Gross Profit	1.48B	601.51M	1.00B	476.04M	123.83M
EBITDA	447.35M	700.91M	920.86M	380.02M	97.50M
Net Income	250.60M	478.63M	641.30M	150.88M	-35.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59B	2.36B	2.03B	1.46B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	506.17M	747.23M	838.09M	404.34M	220.42M
Total Debt	173.04M	173.24M	335.68M	391.86M	418.38M
Total Liabilities	500.70M	482.61M	580.58M	592.23M	668.70M
Stockholders Equity	2.09B	1.87B	1.45B	871.98M	725.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-89.77M	209.43M	633.16M	293.65M	25.14M
Operating Cash Flow	367.45M	701.11M	841.90M	351.54M	112.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-538.00M	-527.21M	-255.14M	-71.15M	-108.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-68.51M	-265.18M	-153.12M	-96.47M	14.10M

Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.67, above the 50-day MA of 48.70, and below the 200-day MA of 53.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCC.

Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTU	76 Outperform	$1.96B	15.78	3.87%	1.86%	-5.83%	―
ARLP	75 Outperform	$3.51B	14.98	12.63%	10.57%	-8.59%	-54.87%
NRP	71 Outperform	$1.35B	9.84	31.98%	4.11%	-19.21%	-30.92%
METC	69 Neutral	$1.04B	43.10	-0.08%	2.35%	-10.23%	-100.04%
AMR	64 Neutral	$1.54B	58.50	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%
HCC	62 Neutral	$2.70B	25.52	5.20%	0.62%	-21.04%	-75.78%
Sector *	59 Neutral	HK$16.83B	4.60	-5.52%	4.39%	-3.57%	-61.41%

Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events

Warrior Met Coal Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On April 23, 2025, Warrior Met Coal held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key proposals were voted on. The stockholders re-elected five directors to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, approved executive compensation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2025, and rejected a proposal for an independent assessment of the company’s respect for human rights related to freedom of association and collective bargaining.