Warrior Met Coal (HCC)
NYSE:HCC
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Warrior Met Coal
(NYSE:HCC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$95.00
▲(9.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven by solid financial stability from a low-leverage balance sheet, offset by weak cash-flow conversion (negative free cash flow) and a very high P/E that pressures valuation. Guidance reaffirmation and operational execution (Blue Creek completion and volume growth) support the outlook, while technical signals remain broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Low leverage and solid liquidity
A very low debt-to-equity (~0.09) and available liquidity ($364M at quarter end) give durable financial flexibility. This conservatively levered profile lets the company fund operations and capex through cycles, absorb commodity shocks, and preserves the ability to invest or return capital without stressing solvency.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion
Persistent negative free cash flow, including a severe Q1 cash shortfall, signals cash conversion issues despite positive operating cash flow. That limits durable capacity for buybacks/dividends, increases reliance on liquidity buffers, and makes the company vulnerable to working-capital swings or weaker pricing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage and solid liquidity
A very low debt-to-equity (~0.09) and available liquidity ($364M at quarter end) give durable financial flexibility. This conservatively levered profile lets the company fund operations and capex through cycles, absorb commodity shocks, and preserves the ability to invest or return capital without stressing solvency.
Read all positive factors
Warrior Met Coal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.47B
Dividend Yield0.36%
Average Volume (3M)879.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth11.32%
EPS Growth29.65%
CountryUS
Employees1,336
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.62
Shares Outstanding52,801,964
10 Day Avg. Volume764,247
30 Day Avg. Volume879,686
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio-50.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.80Price Target Upside17.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)6.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers l...
How the Company Makes Money
Warrior Met Coal makes money primarily by selling metallurgical coal (including premium hard coking coal) to customers in the global steel supply chain. Revenue is largely a function of (1) sales volumes shipped (typically into the seaborne export...
Warrior Met Coal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple substantial operational and financial wins—completion of Blue Creek on budget, record production and sales, materially higher revenues and adjusted EBITDA, lower per-ton cash costs, and maintained liquidity—while acknowledging temporary cash flow and working capital impacts, inventory accumulation, margin realization headwinds from index relativity shifts, and emerging inflationary and geopolitical risks. Management expects the working capital and cash flow timing issues to improve later in the year and reaffirmed full-year guidance.Positive Updates
Successful Completion of Blue Creek Project on Budget and Ahead of Schedule
Completed final construction and project spending for Blue Creek with total project capital expenditures a little over $1 billion, delivered on budget and ahead of schedule, fully funded from cash from operations without incurring any funded debt.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow Shortfall
Free cash flow was negative $890 million in Q1 2026 due to negative operating cash flow of $12 million combined with capital expenditures of $80 million. Operating cash flows were $88 million lower than Q1 2025, largely timing-related and expected to reverse.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Completion of Blue Creek Project on Budget and Ahead of Schedule
Completed final construction and project spending for Blue Creek with total project capital expenditures a little over $1 billion, delivered on budget and ahead of schedule, fully funded from cash from operations without incurring any funded debt.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook and guidance (as communicated in February), saying Q1 results were generally in line or ahead of internal plans and that volumes should remain higher for the balance of the year to meet guidance; they expect steelmaking coal markets to remain generally consistent absent major supply/demand disruptions or a prolonged Middle East conflict but cautioned on inflationary cost pressures (steel roof supports, tungsten bits, diesel) that could add “a few dollars per ton” to cash costs. Key metrics tied to the guidance: Q1 free cash flow was negative $890 million (driven by negative $12 million operating cash flow and $80 million capex) but management expects free cash flow to turn positive in Q2; Q1 cash cost per ton FOB was ~$96; the company completed Blue Creek with total project capex a little over $1 billion (final $66 million in Q1) paid from cash without funded debt; Q1 benefited from a $3/ton 45X tax credit (~$8.4 million); available liquidity at March 31 was $364 million (including $20 million short-term investments and $141 million available on the ABL); SG&A is on track with guidance, inventory management will be prioritized through the year (Q1 inventory 1.9 million short tons), and any resumed shareholder returns (rising quarterly dividend plus supplemental specials and selective buybacks) would depend on when cash generation allows, likely in the back half of the year if timing holds.Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.31B | 1.53B | 1.68B | 1.74B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 561.32M | 111.23M | 1.48B | 601.51M | 885.81M | 334.62M |
| EBITDA | 344.01M | 235.89M | 447.35M | 696.74M | 929.82M | 377.89M |
| Net Income | 137.51M | 57.00M | 250.60M | 478.63M | 641.30M | 150.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.82B | 2.78B | 2.59B | 2.36B | 2.03B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.24M | 353.21M | 506.17M | 747.23M | 838.09M | 404.34M |
| Total Debt | 266.50M | 270.94M | 173.04M | 173.24M | 335.68M | 391.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 618.99M | 642.41M | 500.70M | 482.61M | 580.58M | 592.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.20B | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.87B | 1.45B | 871.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -134.64M | -91.02M | -89.77M | 209.43M | 633.16M | 293.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.60M | 229.25M | 367.45M | 701.11M | 841.90M | 351.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -384.81M | -405.15M | -538.00M | -527.21M | -255.14M | -71.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.83M | -15.38M | -68.51M | -265.18M | -153.12M | -96.47M |
Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis
Negative
86.37
Price Trends
88.57
Negative
89.12
Negative
78.95
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.89
Positive
46.07
Neutral
44.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 86.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.67, below the 50-day MA of 88.57, and above the 200-day MA of 78.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCC.
Warrior Met Coal Risk Analysis
Warrior Met Coal disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Warrior Met Coal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $3.21B | 97.70 | 13.66% | 11.05% | -7.15% | -11.05% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $4.47B | 16.97 | 6.44% | 0.36% | 11.32% | 29.65% | |
55 Neutral | $4.19B | 63.16 | -1.69% | 0.45% | 58.34% | -125.12% | |
54 Neutral | $2.85B | -31.02 | -3.37% | 0.96% | -6.75% | -133.56% | |
53 Neutral | $2.22B | -59.54 | -2.47% | ― | -19.15% | -246.35% | |
52 Neutral | $823.16M | -11.30 | -13.44% | 2.83% | -16.66% | -195120.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
85.45
40.35
89.46%
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Warrior Met Coal Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Warrior Met Coal Shareholders Endorse Governance and Compensation
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
At its recent annual meeting, Warrior Met Coal stockholders re-elected all six incumbent directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, signaling continuity in the company’s board leadership. Shareholders also approved the Warrior Met Coa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.