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Ramaco Resources (METC)
:METC

Ramaco Resources (METC) AI Stock Analysis

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METC

Ramaco Resources

(NASDAQ:METC)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(18.03% Upside)
Ramaco Resources' overall stock score is primarily impacted by financial challenges, including declining revenue and profitability. Technical indicators also show bearish trends. However, strategic advancements in rare earths and critical minerals, along with strong liquidity, provide potential for future growth. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Strategic Expansion in Rare Earths
This expansion into rare earths positions Ramaco as a key player in a high-demand market, diversifying revenue streams and reducing reliance on coal.
Record Liquidity
Strong liquidity enhances financial stability, providing flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather market downturns.
Partnership with U.S. Energy Department
This partnership supports innovation and development in critical minerals, strengthening Ramaco's market position and aligning with national priorities.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue and Profitability
Decreasing revenue and profitability indicate operational challenges and market pressures, potentially impacting long-term financial health.
Challenging Met Coal Market Conditions
Persistent market challenges in coal can hinder revenue growth and profitability, affecting Ramaco's core business operations.
Net Loss in Q3
Sustained losses highlight financial strain and may limit investment capacity, affecting future growth and operational resilience.

Ramaco Resources (METC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ramaco Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRamaco Resources, Inc. produces and sells metallurgical coal. The company's development portfolio includes the Elk Creek project consisting of approximately 20,200 acres of controlled mineral and 16 seams located in southern West Virginia; the Berwind property comprising approximately 41,300 acres of controlled mineral and an area of Squire Jim seam coal deposits, which is situated on the border of West Virginia and Virginia; the Knox Creek property consisting of approximately 62,100 acres of controlled mineral that is located in Virginia; and the RAM Mine property comprising approximately 1,570 acres of controlled mineral, which is situated in southwestern Pennsylvania. The company serves blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in the United States, as well as international metallurgical coal consumers. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
How the Company Makes MoneyRamaco Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal, which is sold to steel producers and other industrial customers. The company earns money by supplying high-quality coal that meets specific client specifications, often entering long-term contracts that provide stable revenue streams. Additionally, Ramaco may also benefit from spot market sales when demand surges. Key partnerships with steel manufacturers and other industrial entities enhance its market presence and customer base, contributing to its earnings. Factors influencing its revenue include coal market prices, production levels, and operational efficiency, as well as the overall health of the steel industry.

Ramaco Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

Ramaco Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While Ramaco Resources demonstrated strong operational performance and cost management, the overall sentiment is tempered by declines in earnings due to weak market conditions and adverse weather impacts. The company's advancements in rare earth mining present a promising future, but current market challenges in the steel industry and reduced production guidance create a balanced outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
Despite challenging market conditions, Ramaco Resources reported the highest cash margins per ton and highest realized sales price among peers. The company also achieved record mine production of 1 million tons this quarter.
Cost Management Success
Cash cost per ton sold remained under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, placing Ramaco in the first quartile of the cost curve among U.S. coal met producers.
Rare Earth Project Advancement
Significant progress made on the Brook Mine rare earth project with completed testing and plans to initiate large-scale mining. The project is poised as a major domestic source of rare earths and critical minerals with low radioactive character.
Liquidity and Strong Balance Sheet
Liquidity of $118 million was reported, up almost 25% year-on-year, with a strong net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of less than 0.7x.
New Executive Leadership
Mike Woloschuk, with over 30 years of experience in critical minerals, joins as EVP to oversee the rare earth project.
Negative Updates
Decline in Earnings and Sales
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $10 million from $29 million in Q4, and the company reported a net loss of $9 million. The decline was attributed to lower metallurgical coal prices and reduced sales volumes.
Market Conditions and Production Guidance
Weak market conditions led to a reduction in production and sales guidance for 2025. Full-year production is now expected to be between 3.9 million to 4.3 million tons.
Weather-Related Setbacks
Extreme weather conditions in January and February resulted in a production loss of approximately 150,000 tons.
Increased Legal Expenses
Cash SG&A guidance increased due to legal expenses related to a multiyear lawsuit against Chubb Insurance.
Challenging Steel Market
Chinese steel overproduction and export tariffs continue to impact global met coal prices and demand.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Ramaco Resources provided guidance indicating a reduction in both production and sales expectations due to challenging market conditions. The company reported a quarterly record production of 1 million tons, which annualizes to 4 million tons, despite losing approximately 150,000 tons to adverse weather conditions. The cash cost per ton sold remained under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, positioning Ramaco in the first quartile of the U.S. coal met producers' cost curve. Ramaco achieved the highest cash margins per ton and realized sales price among its peers, with an adjusted EBITDA of $10 million, despite a net loss of $9 million in Q1. The company plans to lower its 2025 production guidance to 3.9-4.3 million tons and sales guidance to 4.1-4.5 million tons. Additionally, capital expenditure guidance was reduced to $55-65 million. Ramaco also emphasized their strategic flexibility to increase production if market conditions improve, potentially reaching a 5 million tons per annum run rate by year-end.

Ramaco Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ramaco Resources is facing financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The income statement shows a negative net profit margin, and the balance sheet indicates moderate leverage but a concerning negative return on equity. Cash flow issues, particularly the decline in free cash flow, highlight potential liquidity risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ramaco Resources has experienced a decline in revenue and profitability in the TTM period. The gross profit margin decreased significantly from previous years, and the company reported a negative net profit margin, indicating a loss. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that has increased slightly over the years but remains manageable. However, the return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, indicating a decline in profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow, with negative growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating that operating cash flow is not fully covering net income. Despite these challenges, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, albeit reduced.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue579.50M666.29M693.52M565.69M283.39M168.91M
Gross Profit23.28M65.92M144.08M190.42M61.16M1.93M
EBITDA45.21M88.12M169.22M195.33M73.78M14.31M
Net Income-32.88M11.19M82.31M116.04M39.76M-4.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets849.65M674.69M665.84M596.34M329.03M228.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments193.85M33.01M41.96M35.61M21.89M5.30M
Total Debt136.38M103.67M101.13M138.82M51.46M17.56M
Total Liabilities322.74M311.88M296.23M287.14M117.96M59.53M
Stockholders Equity526.91M362.81M369.61M309.20M211.07M169.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-31.31M43.82M78.13M64.86M-6.27M-11.44M
Operating Cash Flow35.08M112.67M161.04M187.87M53.34M13.31M
Investing Cash Flow-67.94M-70.83M-72.21M-145.71M-59.61M-24.75M
Financing Cash Flow203.83M-50.79M-82.52M-28.50M22.37M11.29M

Ramaco Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.98
Price Trends
50DMA
26.87
Negative
100DMA
26.73
Negative
200DMA
18.77
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.67
Negative
RSI
28.78
Positive
STOCH
1.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For METC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.11, below the 50-day MA of 26.87, and below the 200-day MA of 18.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for METC.

Ramaco Resources Risk Analysis

Ramaco Resources disclosed 101 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ramaco Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ramaco Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$3.01B12.3913.07%11.13%-9.45%-46.37%
69
Neutral
$4.39B125.131.67%0.38%-23.25%-90.78%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
60
Neutral
$894.91M-4.23-74.70%7.60%-591.73%
59
Neutral
$2.40B-55.56-2.87%-32.53%-112.77%
57
Neutral
$3.38B-98.38-0.87%1.08%-7.21%-106.39%
52
Neutral
$935.82M-7.40%3.42%-16.99%-184.02%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
METC
Ramaco Resources
13.98
3.87
38.28%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
23.35
0.06
0.26%
HNRG
Hallador Energy Company
17.31
6.19
55.67%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
198.25
-10.06
-4.83%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
84.90
27.70
48.43%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
28.50
7.52
35.84%

Ramaco Resources Corporate Events

Dividends
Ramaco Resources Announces Q4 2025 Dividend Ratio
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the dividend ratio for its previously declared Class B common stock dividend for the fourth quarter of 2025. Shareholders of record on December 5, 2025, will receive 0.014390 of one share of Class B common stock for each share held, based on a closing price of $12.37 per share. The dividend is payable on December 19, 2025, and any fractional shares will be compensated in cash.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Announces Stock Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

On November 14, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a stock dividend of $0.1780 per share of Class B common stock, payable in shares of the same stock on December 19, 2025, to shareholders recorded by December 5, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to its shareholders, potentially enhancing its stock value and market position, while also indicating financial stability and confidence in its operational growth.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Boosts Liquidity to Over $580 Million
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced an update to its liquidity information, revealing a significant increase in liquidity to over $580 million as of November 7, 2025, from $87 million in June 2025. This improvement is attributed to three major financing initiatives, including the issuance of convertible senior notes and equity offerings, which will fund the development of its rare earth elements and critical minerals project, supporting strategic growth and corporate purposes.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Announces $300M Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

On November 4 and 5, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a proposed $300 million convertible senior notes offering and a concurrent delta offering, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as managers. The proceeds will fund capped call transactions, a rare earth elements project, and strategic growth, impacting market positioning and stakeholder interests.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Acquires Coal Reserves for $15 Million
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Ramaco Resources Land Holdings, LLC, a subsidiary of Ramaco Resources, Inc., entered into an agreement to purchase coal reserves and related real property interests from Coronado IV LLC and Buchanan Mining Company, LLC for $15 million. The transaction, which is expected to close in November 2025, includes customary conditions and liabilities, potentially impacting Ramaco’s operational capabilities and market positioning in the coal industry.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Announces Convertible Notes Offering
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes and Class A common stock, aiming to strengthen its financial position. The company is advancing its rare earth elements and critical minerals operations at the Brook Mine in Wyoming, with plans to increase production and expand processing facilities. This development positions Ramaco as a significant player in the U.S. rare earth elements market, potentially impacting its stakeholders positively by enhancing its resource base and operational capabilities.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Posts FAQ on Brook Mine Project
Positive
Oct 31, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the posting of a FAQ document on their website regarding the Brook Mine project, highlighting its significance as the first new rare earth and coal mine in the U.S. in decades. The project, which began active mining in July 2025, is expected to play a crucial role in establishing a domestic supply chain for strategic minerals, with significant implications for national defense and technology sectors.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Partners with Goldman Sachs for SCMT
Positive
Oct 31, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a collaboration with Goldman Sachs to establish a Strategic Critical Minerals Terminal (SCMT) at its Brook Mine in Wyoming. This initiative, approved by Ramaco’s Board on October 27, 2025, aims to mitigate supply chain risks and ensure access to strategic materials, positioning Ramaco as a leading producer of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the U.S. The SCMT will offer stockpiling, storage, and inventory management solutions, with plans to support third-party producers and enhance the domestic supply chain. The Brook Mine’s strategic location with direct railroad and highway access is expected to facilitate efficient distribution to defense and industrial consumers, reinforcing national security and innovation in the rare earths industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Partners with U.S. Energy Department
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a significant agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory to advance research and development in rare earth elements and critical minerals. This agreement aims to accelerate the discovery and commercialization of these resources at Ramaco’s Brook Mine in Wyoming, which is believed to contain the largest unconventional rare earth deposit in the U.S. The collaboration will leverage advanced technologies and the expertise of multiple national laboratories to strengthen U.S. competitiveness and enhance domestic mineral security.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ramaco Resources Advances Strategic Mineral Projects
Neutral
Oct 27, 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, Ramaco Resources reported a net loss of $13.3 million but maintained strong liquidity with a record $272 million, positioning itself for a strategic transition into a dual-platform company. The company is advancing its rare earth and critical minerals project at the Brook Mine in Wyoming, with plans to become a leading national producer and processor. The Board has approved the development of a strategic critical mineral terminal and the construction of a commercial oxide facility, aiming to increase production significantly. Despite weak coal market conditions, Ramaco is optimizing production and costs to enhance margins and maintain its market position.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Establishes Strategic Stockpile Initiative
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced its board’s approval to establish a national strategic stockpile of rare earth elements and critical minerals at its Brook Mine facility in Wyoming. This initiative, developed in collaboration with a nationally recognized commodity advisor, aims to position Ramaco as a comprehensive producer of critical minerals in the U.S., addressing supply chain risks and providing secure access to essential materials. The Brook Mine, strategically located with infrastructure access, is expected to enhance Ramaco’s production capabilities and support national security needs by increasing its annual production projection significantly. The stockpile will also offer tolling services for third-party producers, further strengthening the domestic supply chain.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Joins Defense Industrial Base Consortium
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

On October 15, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced its official approval to join the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC), a strategic move that aligns with its mission to support U.S. national security through the development of domestic critical mineral resources. This membership provides Ramaco access to a network of defense contractors and federal agencies, enabling participation in federally funded research and production opportunities, particularly in areas critical to national defense such as rare earth elements and energy storage technologies. This inclusion underscores Ramaco’s commitment to advancing U.S. energy independence and supporting defense readiness.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Appoints New Senior VP for Minerals
Positive
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the appointment of Martin van Wyk as Senior Vice President of Critical Minerals Processing. Van Wyk, with over 23 years of experience in mineral processing, will lead the critical minerals processing development of the Brook Mine Project in Wyoming. His expertise in rare earth elements and innovative approach to process optimization is expected to position Ramaco at the forefront of sustainable resource development and technological innovation. This strategic hire is anticipated to significantly impact Ramaco’s commercial critical minerals strategy and future growth.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Expands Brook Mine Project Capacity
Positive
Sep 18, 2025

On September 18, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced significant developments in its Brook Mine project, including the groundbreaking of the mine and plans to increase production capacity from 2 million to 5 million tons per year. The company has raised $200 million in new equity and is engaging with federal agencies to expand its mining permit and enhance its processing capacity. These efforts aim to position Ramaco as a dominant domestic producer of rare earth elements and critical minerals, reducing reliance on foreign sources and aligning with national security priorities.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Appoints Michael Graney to Board
Positive
Sep 16, 2025

On September 15, 2025, Ramaco Resources appointed Michael R. Graney as an independent member of its Board of Directors, with his term expiring at the 2026 annual meeting. Graney, who has extensive experience in economic development and the energy sector, will serve on multiple committees and receive compensation similar to other independent directors. His appointment aligns with Ramaco’s strategic direction as a leading metallurgical coal producer and rare earth mine developer, positioning the company for significant growth.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025