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Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)
NASDAQ:METC
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Ramaco Resources (METC) AI Stock Analysis

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METC

Ramaco Resources

(NASDAQ:METC)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
â–²(4.08% Upside)
The overall stock score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive corporate events, which are offset by financial performance challenges and a concerning valuation due to negative earnings. The company's strategic initiatives in rare earth elements provide a positive outlook, but operational and cash flow improvements are needed.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Ramaco reported adjusted EBITDA of $9.8M, beating consensus expectations due to better than expected sales volumes and costs.
Future Growth Potential
The analyst reiterates a Buy rating for Ramaco even after strong performance, reflecting confidence in its future potential.
Investment and Financing
Momentum is increasing regarding government and/or private investment/financing for the Brook Mine project.
Negative Factors
Cost and Revenue
Ramaco has trimmed full-year production and sales guidance due to expected continued weak market conditions.
Development Risks
There is a recognition of risk to developing the Brook Mine project and meeting the targets as assumed.
Market Conditions
Prolonged weakness in the export market is anticipated, leading domestic steel producers to push for a year-over-year decline in price.

Ramaco Resources (METC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ramaco Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRamaco Resources, Inc. produces and sells metallurgical coal. The company's development portfolio includes the Elk Creek project consisting of approximately 20,200 acres of controlled mineral and 16 seams located in southern West Virginia; the Berwind property comprising approximately 41,300 acres of controlled mineral and an area of Squire Jim seam coal deposits, which is situated on the border of West Virginia and Virginia; the Knox Creek property consisting of approximately 62,100 acres of controlled mineral that is located in Virginia; and the RAM Mine property comprising approximately 1,570 acres of controlled mineral, which is situated in southwestern Pennsylvania. The company serves blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in the United States, as well as international metallurgical coal consumers. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
How the Company Makes MoneyRamaco Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial customers. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and spot market sales, which provide flexibility and stability in pricing. Key revenue streams include direct sales of coal, royalties from coal that is mined by third-party operators on its leased properties, and potential revenue from carbon credits and other environmental initiatives. Strategic partnerships with steel manufacturers and ongoing investments in innovative mining technologies also contribute to enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.

Ramaco Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While Ramaco Resources demonstrated strong operational performance and cost management, the overall sentiment is tempered by declines in earnings due to weak market conditions and adverse weather impacts. The company's advancements in rare earth mining present a promising future, but current market challenges in the steel industry and reduced production guidance create a balanced outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operational Performance
Despite challenging market conditions, Ramaco Resources reported the highest cash margins per ton and highest realized sales price among peers. The company also achieved record mine production of 1 million tons this quarter.
Cost Management Success
Cash cost per ton sold remained under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, placing Ramaco in the first quartile of the cost curve among U.S. coal met producers.
Rare Earth Project Advancement
Significant progress made on the Brook Mine rare earth project with completed testing and plans to initiate large-scale mining. The project is poised as a major domestic source of rare earths and critical minerals with low radioactive character.
Liquidity and Strong Balance Sheet
Liquidity of $118 million was reported, up almost 25% year-on-year, with a strong net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of less than 0.7x.
New Executive Leadership
Mike Woloschuk, with over 30 years of experience in critical minerals, joins as EVP to oversee the rare earth project.
Negative Updates
Decline in Earnings and Sales
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $10 million from $29 million in Q4, and the company reported a net loss of $9 million. The decline was attributed to lower metallurgical coal prices and reduced sales volumes.
Market Conditions and Production Guidance
Weak market conditions led to a reduction in production and sales guidance for 2025. Full-year production is now expected to be between 3.9 million to 4.3 million tons.
Weather-Related Setbacks
Extreme weather conditions in January and February resulted in a production loss of approximately 150,000 tons.
Increased Legal Expenses
Cash SG&A guidance increased due to legal expenses related to a multiyear lawsuit against Chubb Insurance.
Challenging Steel Market
Chinese steel overproduction and export tariffs continue to impact global met coal prices and demand.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Ramaco Resources provided guidance indicating a reduction in both production and sales expectations due to challenging market conditions. The company reported a quarterly record production of 1 million tons, which annualizes to 4 million tons, despite losing approximately 150,000 tons to adverse weather conditions. The cash cost per ton sold remained under $100 for the second consecutive quarter, positioning Ramaco in the first quartile of the U.S. coal met producers' cost curve. Ramaco achieved the highest cash margins per ton and realized sales price among its peers, with an adjusted EBITDA of $10 million, despite a net loss of $9 million in Q1. The company plans to lower its 2025 production guidance to 3.9-4.3 million tons and sales guidance to 4.1-4.5 million tons. Additionally, capital expenditure guidance was reduced to $55-65 million. Ramaco also emphasized their strategic flexibility to increase production if market conditions improve, potentially reaching a 5 million tons per annum run rate by year-end.

Ramaco Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ramaco Resources faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability in the TTM period, impacting its income statement. The balance sheet remains strong, albeit with increased leverage. Cash flow generation has weakened, with free cash flow under pressure. The company demonstrates resilience but must address operational and cash flow challenges to improve financial health.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
The company's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin decreased significantly in the TTM period, indicating cost pressures. The net profit margin turned negative in the TTM, reflecting a challenging operational environment. Historical EBIT and EBITDA margins were relatively healthy, but recent performance has deteriorated, impacting profitability.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a stable equity ratio over the years. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly, indicating rising leverage. The return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, suggesting reduced profitability. Overall, the balance sheet remains solid but with increasing financial risk.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow from operations remains positive, but free cash flow has declined notably in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio has worsened, reflecting cash flow challenges. Despite this, the company maintains a reasonable operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating some operational cash generation resilience.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue625.92M666.29M693.52M565.69M283.39M168.91M
Gross Profit89.35M133.00M199.73M232.73M87.98M23.41M
EBITDA54.48M86.66M169.22M195.33M73.78M14.31M
Net Income-19.81M11.19M82.31M116.04M39.76M-4.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets674.65M674.69M665.84M596.34M329.03M228.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments28.13M33.01M41.96M35.61M21.89M5.30M
Total Debt109.33M102.29M100.55M138.11M51.44M17.45M
Total Liabilities327.21M311.88M296.23M287.14M117.96M59.53M
Stockholders Equity347.44M362.81M369.61M309.20M211.07M169.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow12.10M57.43M78.13M64.86M23.87M-11.44M
Operating Cash Flow74.84M112.67M161.04M187.87M53.34M13.31M
Investing Cash Flow-67.21M-70.83M-72.21M-145.71M-59.61M-24.75M
Financing Cash Flow-7.08M-50.79M-82.52M-28.50M22.37M11.29M

Ramaco Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price24.98
Price Trends
50DMA
20.33
Positive
100DMA
14.85
Positive
200DMA
12.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.25
Positive
RSI
57.83
Neutral
STOCH
64.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For METC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.92, above the 50-day MA of 20.33, and above the 200-day MA of 12.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for METC.

Ramaco Resources Risk Analysis

Ramaco Resources disclosed 100 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ramaco Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ramaco Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$2.95B12.6312.59%11.86%-8.59%-55.01%
69
Neutral
$644.30M8.8311.20%6.35%-7.70%17.73%
67
Neutral
$2.04B16.393.87%1.72%-5.83%-73.88%
66
Neutral
$1.50B43.10-5.55%1.92%-12.79%-134.14%
64
Neutral
$3.00B74.051.95%0.57%-27.62%-90.48%
61
Neutral
$10.27B6.370.76%2.91%3.10%-36.03%
57
Neutral
$1.77B64.14-2.29%0.36%-29.63%-108.26%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
METC
Ramaco Resources
24.98
16.35
189.46%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
22.76
1.98
9.53%
SXC
Suncoke Energy
7.61
-0.15
-1.93%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
135.90
-61.14
-31.03%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
55.15
2.86
5.47%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
17.40
-3.21
-15.57%

Ramaco Resources Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Advances Brook Mine Project with Hatch
Positive
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that it has retained Hatch Ltd. to lead the next phase of the Brook Mine rare earth elements and critical minerals project. Hatch will develop the project’s Pre-Feasibility Study, which includes test-work support, pilot plant design, and process flowsheet optimization. This decision is part of Ramaco’s strategy to advance the Brook Mine project and capitalize on growing interest from stakeholders. The project has been validated by geological assessments and a preliminary economic assessment, paving the way for the development of the first new rare earth mine in the U.S. since 1952.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Mourns Loss of Board Member
Neutral
Sep 3, 2025

On September 3, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the passing of Patrick C. Graney, III, a long-time board member who served since December 2016. Graney was instrumental in the company’s growth and community initiatives, including expanding the workforce to over 1,000 employees and championing educational and regional revitalization efforts. In his honor, the Ramaco Foundation pledged $100,000 to the University of Charleston’s Patrick C. Graney III Endowment Fund, reflecting his commitment to education and community investment.

Dividends
Ramaco Resources Announces Stock Dividend Approval
Neutral
Aug 22, 2025

On August 22, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that its board of directors approved a stock dividend of $0.1918 per share for its Class B common stock, payable on September 19, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 5, 2025. This dividend will be paid in Class B common stock, with the number of shares determined by the closing transaction price on the record date. Instead of issuing fractional shares, the company will pay cash for the fractional value based on the closing price on the record date.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Closes $200 Million Public Offering
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Ramaco Resources, Inc. announced the closing of its underwritten public offering, raising approximately $200 million through the sale of 10,666,667 shares of Class A common stock at $18.75 per share. The company intends to use the net proceeds to accelerate the development of its rare earth elements and critical minerals project, pursue strategic growth opportunities, and for general corporate purposes. Yorktown Energy Partners, the selling stockholders, granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase additional shares, which was fully exercised, although Ramaco will not receive proceeds from this sale.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Announces Public Offering and Credit Amendment
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Ramaco Resources, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement for a public offering of 10,666,667 shares of its common stock, priced at $18.75 per share, with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC as lead underwriters. The net proceeds of approximately $188.1 million are intended to fund the development of its rare earth elements and critical minerals project, strategic growth opportunities, and general corporate purposes. Concurrently, the company amended its Credit Agreement to remove negative covenants related to equity securities issuance, enhancing its financial flexibility.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Completes $65 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 4, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Ramaco Resources completed a public offering of $57 million in 8.250% Senior Notes due 2030, with an additional $8 million issued following the exercise of an over-allotment option by underwriters on August 1, 2025. The total gross proceeds from the offering amounted to approximately $65 million. The company plans to use a portion of the net proceeds to redeem its outstanding 9.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and allocate the remaining funds for general corporate purposes, including rare earth development and capital expenditures. This financial maneuver aims to improve Ramaco’s debt profile and support its strategic growth initiatives.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ramaco Resources Opens Brook Mine in July 2025
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, Ramaco Resources reported a net loss of $14.0 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $9.0 million, with production reaching a record 1.0 million tons. Despite weak market conditions, the company is optimizing production and sales to enhance margins and expects full-year production and sales to be at the low end of their guidance range. Additionally, Ramaco has accelerated the commercial timeline for its Brook Mine rare earth and critical minerals operation, with initial commercial production now anticipated in 2027. The company hosted a ribbon-cutting ceremony in July 2025 to mark the opening of the Brook Mine, the first new rare earth mine in the U.S. in over 70 years, highlighting its transition to a dual-platform company.

Private Placements and Financing
Ramaco Resources Completes $57M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Ramaco Resources completed a public offering of $57 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, with an interest rate of 8.250% per annum. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing 9.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes, including rare earth development and capital expenditures. The notes are rated ‘BBB-‘ and are expected to be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Lucid Capital Markets, LLC acted as the lead bookrunner for the offering.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ramaco Resources Secures Second Mine Permit for Brook Mine
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced it received a second five-year mine permit for its Brook Mine in Wyoming, allowing continued coal mining and reclamation over 4,548.8 acres. This approval highlights Ramaco’s commitment to responsible resource development and provides confidence in its operational milestones. Earlier, on July 11, the Brook Mine Carbon Ore Rare Earth project was commemorated as the first new rare earth mine in the U.S. in over 70 years, marking a strategic milestone in reducing foreign reliance on critical minerals. Additionally, a $6.1 million grant was approved to support a pilot-scale processing facility at the Brook Mine, with construction planned for later this year.

Private Placements and Financing
Ramaco Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Ramaco Resources, Inc. announced the redemption of all its outstanding 9.00% Senior Notes due 2026, scheduled for August 4, 2025. The redemption involves $34.5 million in aggregate principal amount, and the redemption price will be equal to 100% of the principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest up to the Redemption Date.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Announces Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a public offering of 8.250% Senior Notes due 2030, priced at $25.00 per note, to raise approximately $55 million after expenses. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s outstanding 9.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and for general corporate purposes, including funding rare earth development and future investments. The offering, expected to close on July 31, 2025, is part of a broader strategy to manage debt and support growth initiatives. Additionally, the company entered into a Third Amendment Agreement to facilitate the offering, allowing for increased indebtedness and adjusting permitted unsecured debt levels.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Secures $6.1M Grant for Pilot Plant
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

Ramaco Resources has secured a $6.1 million grant from the Wyoming Energy Authority to support its Brook Mine pilot plant for critical mineral extraction, with the project officially commencing in June 2025. Despite a softening in global metallurgical coal markets due to economic constraints and increased Chinese steel exports, Ramaco continues to fulfill its performance obligations and is negotiating amendments to its credit agreement to facilitate a public offering of senior notes.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Releases Brook Mine PEA Summary
Positive
Jul 10, 2025

On July 10, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the release of a summary of the full Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its Brook Mine, prepared by Fluor Corporation. The PEA confirms the commercial and technological feasibility of the Brook Mine, marking a significant milestone for Ramaco and its stakeholders, as the company prepares for the ribbon cutting of the Brook Mine. This development is expected to enhance Ramaco’s industry positioning and operational capabilities.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Awaits Brook Mine Assessment Results
Neutral
Jul 8, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that it will receive the Preliminary Economic Assessment of its Brook Mine in Wyoming from Fluor Corporation on July 9. The assessment will be reviewed by the Board of Directors, and a summary will be released on the company’s website. This update is significant for Ramaco’s operations as it could impact its strategic positioning in the coal and rare earth minerals market, potentially affecting stakeholders and future business directions.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ramaco Resources Announces PEA for Brook Mine Project
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that Fluor Corporation will deliver a full Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Brook Mine by July 8, 2025. The PEA confirms the commercial and technical feasibility of the project, highlighting a net present value of $1.197 billion at an 8% discount rate and an internal rate of return of 38%. The Brook Mine project is expected to produce 1,242 short tons of rare earth oxides annually by 2029, generating $378 million in revenue and $143 million in adjusted EBITDA. The unique geological profile of the Brook Mine allows for a more efficient and cost-effective extraction process compared to traditional rare earth element deposits, positioning Ramaco Resources favorably in the industry.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Holds Successful Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Ramaco Resources, Inc. conducted its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where approximately 86.6% of the outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, all director nominees were elected, and the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. Additionally, the compensation for the company’s named executive officers was approved on an advisory basis. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support for the company’s current management and strategic direction.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025