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Ramaco Resources Inc (METC)
NASDAQ:METC

Ramaco Resources (METC) AI Stock Analysis

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Ramaco Resources

(NASDAQ:METC)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
â–²(8.24%Upside)
Ramaco Resources demonstrates robust technical performance and strategic growth initiatives, notably through the Brook Mine project. However, financial challenges, including recent losses and valuation concerns, weigh on the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Ramaco reported adjusted EBITDA of $9.8M, beating consensus expectations due to better than expected sales volumes and costs.
Met Coal Prices
Ramaco is expected to benefit from higher met coal prices over time, and the price target has been increased to reflect this potential.
Operational Efficiency
The company trimmed its full-year cash cost per ton and capital expenditure targets, indicating more efficient operations.
Negative Factors
Guidance
Guidance changes imply a weak second quarter, and a stronger second half will be needed for these shares to outperform.
Market Conditions
Ramaco has trimmed full-year production and sales guidance due to expected continued weak market conditions.
Sales Forecast
Due to weak market conditions, sales are expected to decline 5% at the midpoint of METC’s target range.

Ramaco Resources (METC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ramaco Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRamaco Resources, Inc. produces and sells metallurgical coal. The company's development portfolio includes the Elk Creek project consisting of approximately 20,200 acres of controlled mineral and 16 seams located in southern West Virginia; the Berwind property comprising approximately 41,300 acres of controlled mineral and an area of Squire Jim seam coal deposits, which is situated on the border of West Virginia and Virginia; the Knox Creek property consisting of approximately 62,100 acres of controlled mineral that is located in Virginia; and the RAM Mine property comprising approximately 1,570 acres of controlled mineral, which is situated in southwestern Pennsylvania. The company serves blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in the United States, as well as international metallurgical coal consumers. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
How the Company Makes MoneyRamaco Resources generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of metallurgical coal. The company operates several mining facilities where it extracts coal, processes it to meet industry standards, and then sells it to customers, primarily steel manufacturers, both domestically and internationally. The company's revenue streams are influenced by coal prices, production volumes, and demand from the steel industry. Additionally, strategic partnerships with major steel producers and long-term supply contracts contribute to its earnings stability. Ramaco Resources' financial performance is also impacted by operational efficiency, cost management, and market conditions in the global steel and coal industries.

Ramaco Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 96.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ramaco Resources faced significant challenges in the first quarter due to declining met coal prices and weather-related production impacts. However, the company reported strong operational performance, with record production and high cash margins. The initiation of the Brook Mine project and strategic personnel additions are promising for future growth. Despite these positives, reduced guidance and financial losses weigh heavily on the overall outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Mine Production
Ramaco achieved a quarterly record with 1 million tons of met coal produced, despite challenging weather conditions affecting output by 150,000 tons.
High Cash Margins and Sales Price
Ramaco reported the highest cash margins per ton and the highest realized sales price among its peers, despite a challenging market environment.
Initiation of Rare Earth Project
Ramaco announced the initiation of large-scale mining at the Brook Mine, marking it as the first new rare earth mine in the U.S. in over 70 years.
Addition of Key Personnel
Mike Woloschuk was added to the senior management team from Fluor Corporation to oversee the critical minerals project.
Improved CapEx Guidance
CapEx guidance was reduced from $60-70 million to $55-65 million due to optimized production strategies.
Negative Updates
Decline in Met Coal Prices
Both U.S. and Australian met coal prices continued to decline, affecting earnings and leading to a 175,000 ton decline in tons sold.
Weather-Related Production Impact
Extreme weather conditions, including freezing temperatures and historic flooding, negatively impacted production by approximately 150,000 tons.
Reduced 2025 Production and Sales Guidance
Due to weak market conditions, Ramaco reduced its 2025 production guidance to 3.9-4.3 million tons and sales guidance to 4.1-4.5 million tons.
Financial Losses in Q1
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $10 million compared to $29 million in Q4, and there was a net loss of $9 million compared to Q4 net income of $4 million.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A guidance increased due to higher legal expenses related to a lawsuit against Chubb Insurance, with anticipated trial this summer.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Ramaco Resources reported strong operational performance despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company achieved the highest cash margins per ton and realized sales price among its publicly traded peers, even though U.S. and Australian met coal prices declined. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $10 million, with a net loss of $9 million, affected by a $7 per ton drop in realized pricing and a 175,000-ton decrease in sales. Mine production reached a quarterly record of 1 million tons, annualizing to 4 million tons, with cash costs per ton sold remaining below $100. However, severe weather conditions in January and February reduced production by approximately 150,000 tons. Looking forward, Ramaco has reduced its 2025 production guidance to between 3.9 million and 4.3 million tons and sales to between 4.1 million and 4.5 million tons, due to ongoing market weakness. The company remains optimistic about future market conditions and the potential to increase production if demand improves. Additionally, Ramaco is advancing its Brook Mine rare earth project, which is expected to produce approximately 1,400 metric tons of critical mineral oxides annually, with initial mine operations set to begin later in 2025.

Ramaco Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ramaco Resources faces challenges in revenue and profit growth as highlighted in the income statement, but maintains a strong balance sheet with moderate leverage. The cash flow statement shows effective cash management, though recent declines in free cash flow and profitability raise concerns. Overall, the company demonstrates financial resilience but needs to address profitability pressures.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Ramaco Resources has seen fluctuating revenue trends with a recent decrease in the TTM period. The gross profit margin decreased significantly over the TTM, and the company reported a net loss, impacting the net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity base with a favorable equity ratio, indicating stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, showing a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity has seen a decline due to reduced net income, but overall, the balance sheet remains solid with sufficient equity backing.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Operating cash flow remains robust, providing a solid basis for financial operations despite a decline in net income. Free Cash Flow showed resilience with positive growth in previous periods, though recent TTM figures indicate a decrease. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting effective cash generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue628.27M666.29M693.52M565.69M283.39M168.91M
Gross Profit103.45M133.00M199.73M232.73M87.98M23.41M
EBITDA74.39M86.66M150.90M195.33M73.78M14.31M
Net Income-297.00K11.19M82.31M116.04M39.76M-4.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets685.74M674.69M665.84M596.34M329.03M228.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments43.47M33.01M41.96M35.61M21.89M5.30M
Total Debt109.17M102.29M100.55M138.11M51.44M17.45M
Total Liabilities330.49M311.88M296.23M287.14M117.96M59.53M
Stockholders Equity355.25M362.81M369.61M309.20M211.07M169.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow44.93M57.43M78.13M64.86M23.87M-11.44M
Operating Cash Flow113.52M112.67M161.04M187.87M53.34M13.31M
Investing Cash Flow-74.43M-70.83M-72.21M-145.71M-59.61M-24.75M
Financing Cash Flow-26.13M-50.79M-82.52M-28.50M22.37M11.29M

Ramaco Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.63
Price Trends
50DMA
10.15
Positive
100DMA
9.30
Positive
200DMA
9.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.09
Negative
RSI
72.88
Negative
STOCH
75.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For METC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.78, above the 50-day MA of 10.15, and above the 200-day MA of 9.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for METC.

Ramaco Resources Risk Analysis

Ramaco Resources disclosed 97 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ramaco Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ramaco Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BTBTU
77
Outperform
$1.72B5.5610.33%2.12%-7.42%-26.06%
76
Outperform
$3.41B12.6114.71%10.55%-8.53%-53.44%
SXSXC
75
Outperform
$709.38M7.8914.26%5.73%-8.76%51.59%
69
Neutral
$654.01M43.10-0.08%2.17%-10.23%-100.04%
AMAMR
67
Neutral
$1.43B58.211.66%0.36%-23.34%-95.18%
HCHCC
64
Neutral
$2.58B25.435.20%0.65%-21.04%-75.78%
62
Neutral
$10.21B10.03-0.16%2.84%2.22%-32.59%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
METC
Ramaco Resources
16.63
3.22
24.01%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
27.33
4.89
21.79%
SXC
Suncoke Energy
8.83
-0.95
-9.71%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
122.59
-192.91
-61.14%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
52.97
-17.44
-24.77%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
15.25
-7.37
-32.58%

Ramaco Resources Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Releases Brook Mine PEA Summary
Positive
Jul 10, 2025

On July 10, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the release of a summary of the full Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its Brook Mine, prepared by Fluor Corporation. The PEA confirms the commercial and technological feasibility of the Brook Mine, marking a significant milestone for Ramaco and its stakeholders, as the company prepares for the ribbon cutting of the Brook Mine. This development is expected to enhance Ramaco’s industry positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Awaits Brook Mine Assessment Results
Neutral
Jul 8, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that it will receive the Preliminary Economic Assessment of its Brook Mine in Wyoming from Fluor Corporation on July 9. The assessment will be reviewed by the Board of Directors, and a summary will be released on the company’s website. This update is significant for Ramaco’s operations as it could impact its strategic positioning in the coal and rare earth minerals market, potentially affecting stakeholders and future business directions.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ramaco Resources Announces PEA for Brook Mine Project
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced that Fluor Corporation will deliver a full Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Brook Mine by July 8, 2025. The PEA confirms the commercial and technical feasibility of the project, highlighting a net present value of $1.197 billion at an 8% discount rate and an internal rate of return of 38%. The Brook Mine project is expected to produce 1,242 short tons of rare earth oxides annually by 2029, generating $378 million in revenue and $143 million in adjusted EBITDA. The unique geological profile of the Brook Mine allows for a more efficient and cost-effective extraction process compared to traditional rare earth element deposits, positioning Ramaco Resources favorably in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Holds Successful Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Ramaco Resources, Inc. conducted its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where approximately 86.6% of the outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, all director nominees were elected, and the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified. Additionally, the compensation for the company’s named executive officers was approved on an advisory basis. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support for the company’s current management and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Ramaco Resources Announces Q2 2025 Dividend Details
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On June 2, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced the dividend ratio for its Class A common stock dividend for the second quarter of 2025. The dividend, declared by the Board of Directors, is set at $0.06875 per share of Class A common stock, payable on June 13, 2025, in shares of Class B common stock. Shareholders of record on May 30, 2025, will receive 0.009228 shares of Class B common stock per Class A share, based on the closing price of $7.45 for Class B stock on the record date. Fractional shares will be compensated in cash.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ramaco Resources Announces Cash Dividend Amid Q1 Loss
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Ramaco Resources announced a cash dividend of $0.1811 per share for its Class B common stock, payable on June 13, 2025. The company reported a net income loss of $9.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, with significant production achievements despite adverse weather conditions. Ramaco is adjusting its 2025 guidance due to weak market conditions, reducing production and capital expenditure expectations. The company is advancing its rare earth and critical minerals project at the Brook Mine in Wyoming, with plans to commence large-scale mining in June 2025. A $6.1 million matching grant from Wyoming supports this initiative, highlighting its strategic importance amid global supply chain concerns.

The most recent analyst rating on (METC) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ramaco Resources stock, see the METC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Ramaco Resources Appoints Joseph Manchin to Board
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

On April 18, 2025, Ramaco Resources appointed former U.S. Senator Joseph Manchin III as an independent member of its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Manchin, known for his leadership in energy policy and economic development, will bring valuable insights to the company, particularly as it advances its rare earth element development in Wyoming. His appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Ramaco’s positioning in the U.S. coal industry and critical mineral supply chains, with implications for national security and economic resilience.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025