Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $750.97M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 566.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: 7.60%
• EPS Growth: -591.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 615
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 47,023,495
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 776,057
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 566,112
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 68.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.90
• 1Y Price Target: $26.67
• Price Target Upside: 67.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $466.03M

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(3.32% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is held back primarily by volatile fundamentals (sharp TTM revenue decline and inconsistent profitability) and weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by improved solvency and cash generation (no reported debt, positive TTM cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call backdrop citing stronger FY2025 results and enhanced liquidity, though near-term outage and execution risks remain.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Zero reported TTM debt materially lowers financial leverage and interest obligations, giving Hallador durable flexibility to fund working capital, maintenance and strategic initiatives (ERA deposits, reserve equipment) without immediate refinancing pressure. This supports resilience through commodity cycles and execution phases.

Positive Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in the trailing period provides an ongoing internal funding source for capex and expansions, lowering dependence on external capital. Even with uneven multi-year conversion, positive cash generation underpins liquidity and supports funding of planned maintenance and strategic deposits.

Large Forward Sales Book & Fuel Integration

A substantial forward sales backlog and vertically integrated coal supply create predictable revenue visibility and fuel-cost certainty versus pure merchant peers. This contracted cash-flow runway improves planning for capital projects and debt capacity and reduces exposure to short-term market price swings over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Earnings Volatility

Severe top-line swings and swing from prior profitable years to a large loss indicate fragile demand or concentration risks; uneven margins hinder consistent cash returns and make multi-year planning and capital allocation more uncertain, pressuring the firm's ability to reliably compound equity.

Operational Reliability Risk

Repeated equipment failures and a prolonged planned outage materially reduce generation availability during high-value periods, weakening dispatch economics and contracted deliveries. Persistent reliability issues can degrade customer relationships, increase maintenance capex and lower long-term asset utilization and returns.

ERA Expansion Execution Risk

The planned ERA natural-gas expansion hinges on multiple interdependent steps—equipment procurement, PPA commitments and regulatory/interconnection approvals. Delays, higher equipment costs or insufficient long-term contracts could inflate capex, extend timelines and raise financing needs, straining liquidity and diluting projected returns.

Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the production of steam coal in the State of Indiana for the electric power generation industry. The company owns the Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Mine 2 underground mines in Oaktown, Indiana; and Ace in the Hole mine located near Clay City, Indiana. It is also involved in gas exploration activities in Indiana. Hallador Energy Company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Terre Haute, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Hallador Energy Company primarily makes money by selling thermal coal produced from its mining operations to customers (typically utilities or power producers) under coal supply arrangements. Revenue is recognized from coal deliveries, with pricing and volumes driven by contracted terms and/or market conditions depending on the specific agreement. Key earnings drivers generally include (1) realized coal sales prices, (2) sales volumes, (3) production costs (labor, equipment, fuel, royalties, and reclamation-related costs), and (4) logistics and delivery economics (e.g., transportation arrangements that can affect netbacks). The company’s profitability is also influenced by broader factors such as regional electricity demand, coal market pricing, regulatory/environmental requirements affecting coal-fired generation, and the competitive position of coal versus other generation fuels. Information on any current significant partnerships or specific long-term customer contracts is null.

Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet and liquidity are improved (no reported debt in TTM and positive operating/free cash flow), but operating performance is unstable: revenue contracted sharply in TTM and profitability has swung from strong (2022–2023) to a major loss (2024) and near-breakeven in TTM.

Income Statement

Results are highly volatile. Revenue fell sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (down ~78% vs. the prior period) and profitability is near breakeven (slightly negative net margin). While gross margin is strong in TTM (helped by a smaller revenue base), the company is coming off a very weak 2024 with deeply negative operating and net margins and a large loss, after solid profitability in 2022–2023. Overall, earnings power and top-line stability remain the key weaknesses.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength improved materially: total debt is reported at zero in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reducing financial risk and leverage. Equity increased versus 2024, supporting resilience despite earnings volatility. The main drawback is weak returns on shareholder capital recently (near-zero/negative in TTM, sharply negative in 2024), indicating profitability has not been consistent enough to reliably compound equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, cash flow momentum weakened (free cash flow down ~29% in TTM), and the longer-term pattern is uneven (including negative free cash flow in 2023 and much lower free cash flow in 2024 vs. operating cash flow). Overall, liquidity support is decent, but durability and conversion consistency remain concerns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	469.47M	404.39M	634.88M	361.99M	247.67M
Gross Profit	87.28M	225.80M	331.63M	95.38M	48.83M
EBITDA	103.34M	-157.81M	126.95M	75.01M	44.76M
Net Income	41.87M	-226.14M	44.79M	18.11M	-3.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	437.46M	369.12M	589.78M	654.08M	353.98M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.07M	7.23M	2.84M	6.43M	2.55M
Total Debt	39.07M	53.05M	94.54M	102.20M	107.77M
Total Liabilities	277.63M	264.83M	321.19M	439.05M	167.75M
Stockholders Equity	159.83M	104.28M	268.59M	215.02M	182.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.92M	12.57M	-15.94M	149.00K	19.92M
Operating Cash Flow	81.13M	65.93M	59.41M	54.17M	47.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-66.55M	-46.47M	-75.29M	-53.37M	-27.52M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.37M	-14.43M	16.57M	-207.00K	-26.69M

Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.58, below the 50-day MA of 19.04, and below the 200-day MA of 18.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.

Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	79 Outperform	$1.55B	10.38	22.94%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NC	65 Neutral	$391.57M	-23.70	4.19%	2.02%	25.35%	―
SXC	59 Neutral	$492.75M	-13.93	-6.66%	6.72%	-6.44%	-24.68%
HNRG	55 Neutral	$750.97M	19.52	30.81%	―	7.60%	-591.73%
AREC	53 Neutral	$317.36M	-12.93	43.51%	―	-76.24%	-8.61%
METC	47 Neutral	$918.54M	-18.74	-12.01%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events

Hallador Energy Secures New Credit Facility, Refinances Debt

On March 5, 2026, Hallador Energy closed a new $120 million senior secured credit agreement maturing in 2029, comprising a $75 million revolving credit facility and a $45 million delayed draw term loan, with sub-facilities for letters of credit and swingline loans, and the option to add up to $25 million in additional commitments. The company used the new facilities to refinance its prior PNC Bank credit agreement effective March 5, 2026, extend its debt maturity profile, enhance liquidity for working capital and general corporate purposes, and support future strategic growth initiatives, with Texas Capital Bank, Old National Bank and First Financial Bank leading and participating in the syndicate.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.

Hallador Energy Expands Board and Elevates Operational Leadership

On March 6, 2026, Hallador Energy Company expanded its board of directors to seven members with the appointment of independent director Daniel Hudson, who will serve until the company’s 2026 annual meeting and receive compensation under an existing director pay program that includes cash and restricted stock units. Also effective March 6, 2026, Barbara Ann Sugg joined the Audit and Compensation Committees, reinforcing the company’s governance framework through additional independent oversight.

On the same date, the board appointed Heath Lovell as Chief Operating Officer while he continues as president of Hallador Power, LLC and Sunrise Coal, LLC, consolidating operational leadership across the firm’s power and coal subsidiaries and signaling a move to streamline executive management. The company has not yet finalized Lovell’s compensation arrangements, but emphasized that there are no related-party relationships or conflict-of-interest transactions involving either Hudson or Lovell, underscoring a focus on regulatory compliance and governance transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.

Hallador Energy Completes Underwritten Equity Offering for Expansion

Hallador Energy Company terminated its at-the-market equity program with B. Riley Securities effective January 18, 2026, ending its ability to sell additional shares under that arrangement without incurring any termination penalties. Instead, the company shifted to a fully underwritten equity financing, entering on January 13, 2026, into an underwriting agreement with Texas Capital Securities and other underwriters for a common stock offering that, including the full exercise of the underwriters’ option on January 14, 2026, totaled 3,194,444 shares and closed on January 15, 2026, generating approximately $53.6 million in net proceeds. Hallador has indicated it plans to use the capital for general corporate purposes, including initial financial commitments to reserve equipment for a planned additional natural gas generating facility, signaling continued investment in expanding its power generation portfolio and potentially strengthening its long-term operational and financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.

Hallador Energy Adds Independent Director After Board Resignation

On December 30, 2025, Hallador Energy said long-time director David Hardie, who had served on its board since 1989, would resign effective January 1, 2026, without any disagreement over the company’s operations or policies, and on January 2, 2026 the board moved to fill the vacancy by appointing former Southwest Power Pool CEO Barbara Sugg as a director, also effective January 1, 2026. Announced publicly on January 6, 2026, Sugg’s appointment keeps Hallador’s six-member board with a strong majority of independent directors and adds deep expertise in power markets, grid operations, transmission development and reliability, while aligning her compensation with the company’s standard independent director program and signaling continued focus on optimizing its generation assets and long-term growth strategy in the evolving energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.