Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $828.60M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 452.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: 7.60%
• EPS Growth: -591.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 615
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 46,602,783
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 465,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 452,761
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.32
• 1Y Price Target: $28.50
• Price Target Upside: 60.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(9.67% Upside)

The score is anchored by mixed financial performance: strong cash flow growth and low leverage are offset by ongoing profitability and margin weakness. A strong earnings-call backdrop (sharp YoY improvements and a sizable forward sales book) supports the outlook, while technicals remain subdued with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is neutral due to a loss-driven negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

High gross margin and strong free cash flow growth

A 54% gross margin combined with 109% TTM free cash flow growth provides durable operational cash generation, supporting capex, debt service and project funding. This cash strength cushions commodity cycles and enables reinvestment into generation or diversification over the medium term.

Large forward sales book and prepaid contract

A ~$1.3B forward sales book and a $20M prepaid power contract materially increase revenue visibility and near-term cash certainty. This structural contract portfolio reduces commodity exposure, underpins liquidity for investments like ERAS capacity additions, and supports multi-quarter planning.

Low balance sheet leverage

A debt-to-equity of 0.14 signals conservative leverage and financial flexibility, enabling the company to access funding for the Meramec/ERAS projects or absorb cyclical coal market weakness. Low leverage also reduces refinancing strain and preserves capacity for strategic investments.

Negative Factors

Negative net, EBIT and EBITDA margins

Persistently negative EBIT/EBITDA and net margins indicate structural profitability issues that can erode equity and limit internal funding. Unless operational efficiencies or higher-margin businesses are secured, these margin deficits may constrain reinvestment and prolong reliance on external financing.

Unresolved credit agreement refinancing

Ongoing, unresolved refinancing creates a durable financing risk: unfavorable terms or delays could increase interest costs, impose restrictive covenants, or limit capital for ERAS project buildout. This uncertainty can materially affect multi-quarter strategic execution and liquidity planning.

Negative return on equity

A negative ROE signals the company is not generating returns on shareholder capital, a structural concern for long-term investor value. Sustained negative ROE can impair the ability to attract equity financing and limit resources for growth initiatives amid the energy transition.

Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the production of steam coal in the State of Indiana for the electric power generation industry. The company owns the Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Mine 2 underground mines in Oaktown, Indiana; and Ace in the Hole mine located near Clay City, Indiana. It is also involved in gas exploration activities in Indiana. Hallador Energy Company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Terre Haute, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Hallador Energy Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of thermal coal to utility companies and industrial users. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuations in coal demand and pricing. Key revenue streams include sales from its mining operations, which are supported by its efficient extraction methods and cost management strategies. Additionally, Hallador may benefit from partnerships with utility companies and other entities that require coal for power generation, providing a stable customer base. Factors contributing to its earnings include coal market pricing, production volume, operational efficiency, and regulatory environment affecting coal usage.

Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong gross margin (54%) and strong free cash flow growth (109.15% TTM) support liquidity, but negative net margin and negative EBIT/EBITDA margins point to weak profitability/operational efficiency. Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.14), but ROE is negative.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 54%, indicating good cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant losses. Revenue growth is positive at 9.95% TTM, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively healthy, showing a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow growth of 109.15% TTM, which is a positive sign of liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting that cash generation from operations is not fully covering net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some level of cash profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	461.74M	404.39M	634.88M	361.99M	247.67M	244.24M
Gross Profit	277.91M	225.80M	331.63M	95.38M	48.83M	58.28M
EBITDA	-112.90M	-157.81M	126.95M	75.01M	44.76M	41.43M
Net Income	-173.68M	-226.14M	44.79M	18.11M	-3.75M	-6.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	409.46M	369.12M	589.78M	654.08M	353.98M	384.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.66M	7.23M	2.84M	6.43M	2.55M	12.07M
Total Debt	10.54M	53.05M	94.54M	102.20M	107.77M	142.22M
Total Liabilities	263.27M	264.83M	321.19M	439.05M	167.75M	194.87M
Stockholders Equity	146.19M	104.28M	268.59M	215.02M	182.24M	185.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.89M	12.57M	-15.94M	149.00K	19.92M	31.89M
Operating Cash Flow	111.93M	65.93M	59.41M	54.17M	47.97M	52.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-52.02M	-46.47M	-75.29M	-53.37M	-27.52M	-18.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.07M	-14.43M	16.57M	-207.00K	-26.69M	-35.63M

Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.14, below the 50-day MA of 19.60, and below the 200-day MA of 18.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.

Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SXC	69 Neutral	$695.95M	10.65	9.61%	6.72%	-6.44%	-24.68%
NRP	67 Neutral	$1.55B	10.83	26.19%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
NC	67 Neutral	$409.94M	14.19	7.04%	2.02%	25.35%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HNRG	57 Neutral	$828.60M	-4.34	-74.70%	―	7.60%	-591.73%
METC	56 Neutral	$1.24B	-33.88	-7.40%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%
AREC	53 Neutral	$302.15M	-6.42	―	―	-76.24%	-8.61%

Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events

Hallador Energy Completes Underwritten Equity Offering for Expansion

Hallador Energy Company terminated its at-the-market equity program with B. Riley Securities effective January 18, 2026, ending its ability to sell additional shares under that arrangement without incurring any termination penalties. Instead, the company shifted to a fully underwritten equity financing, entering on January 13, 2026, into an underwriting agreement with Texas Capital Securities and other underwriters for a common stock offering that, including the full exercise of the underwriters’ option on January 14, 2026, totaled 3,194,444 shares and closed on January 15, 2026, generating approximately $53.6 million in net proceeds. Hallador has indicated it plans to use the capital for general corporate purposes, including initial financial commitments to reserve equipment for a planned additional natural gas generating facility, signaling continued investment in expanding its power generation portfolio and potentially strengthening its long-term operational and financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.

Hallador Energy Adds Independent Director After Board Resignation

On December 30, 2025, Hallador Energy said long-time director David Hardie, who had served on its board since 1989, would resign effective January 1, 2026, without any disagreement over the company’s operations or policies, and on January 2, 2026 the board moved to fill the vacancy by appointing former Southwest Power Pool CEO Barbara Sugg as a director, also effective January 1, 2026. Announced publicly on January 6, 2026, Sugg’s appointment keeps Hallador’s six-member board with a strong majority of independent directors and adds deep expertise in power markets, grid operations, transmission development and reliability, while aligning her compensation with the company’s standard independent director program and signaling continued focus on optimizing its generation assets and long-term growth strategy in the evolving energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.

Hallador Energy Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

On December 1, 2025, Hallador Energy Company appointed Eric Van Deman as the Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President. Mr. Van Deman, who previously held significant roles at Liberty Global plc and KPMG LLP, brings extensive experience in accounting policy and audit practices to Hallador Energy. His compensation package includes a base salary, bonus eligibility, and restricted stock units. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen the company’s financial leadership and operational oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (HNRG) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hallador Energy Company stock, see the HNRG Stock Forecast page.