Hallador Energy (HNRG)
NASDAQ:HNRG
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Hallador Energy Company
(NASDAQ:HNRG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(26.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial risk profile (low debt) and constructive price momentum, plus earnings-call positives around long-term contracted capacity and liquidity. These are tempered by weaker cash-flow quality (TTM free cash flow turning negative), near-term operational disruptions/outage impacts, and a negative P/E with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Long-duration capacity contract (>12 yrs)
A 12-year capacity agreement creates durable, predictable capacity revenue that materially extends the company’s contracted cash‑flow horizon. Multi-year pricing at levels well above historical contracts anchors long-term planning, supports capital allocation, and reduces near-term market exposure (approval dependent).
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow (TTM)
TTM free cash flow turning negative signals weaker cash conversion versus accounting profits and raises questions about self‑funding capacity. Persistent negative FCF can constrain capital projects, debt reduction or shareholder returns and increases reliance on external liquidity despite current facilities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Long-duration capacity contract (>12 yrs)
A 12-year capacity agreement creates durable, predictable capacity revenue that materially extends the company’s contracted cash‑flow horizon. Multi-year pricing at levels well above historical contracts anchors long-term planning, supports capital allocation, and reduces near-term market exposure (approval dependent).
Read all positive factors
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$829.97M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth10.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees615
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding47,130,390
10 Day Avg. Volume1,470,152
30 Day Avg. Volume1,063,529
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)5.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio68.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit41.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.75Price Target Upside76.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$449.79M
Hallador Energy Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the production of steam coal in the State of Indiana for the electric power generation industry. The company owns the Oaktown Mine 1 and Oaktown Mine 2 underground mines in Oaktown, Ind...
How the Company Makes Money
Hallador Energy Company primarily makes money by selling thermal coal produced from its mining operations to customers (typically utilities or power producers) under coal supply arrangements. Revenue is recognized from coal deliveries, with pricin...
Hallador Energy Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of significant long‑term strategic wins and near‑term operational challenges. Positives include a material 12‑year capacity agreement (expected to generate >$1B), a forward sales book of ~ $1.2B (excluding the new long‑term deal), elimination of bank debt, and materially improved liquidity and a new flexible credit facility — all of which materially strengthen the company’s financial position and long‑duration revenue visibility. Offsetting these achievements were near‑term operational disruptions at the Merom plant that drove lower electric sales (‑24.2% y/y), a swing to a Q1 net loss of $9.3M from prior year $10M income, a steep decline in adjusted EBITDA (‑71.5%), reduced operating cash flow (‑46.6%), and a planned outage that will pressure Q2 results. Management framed the weakness as temporary and actionable via reliability investments and noted that the long‑term market dynamics (capacity tightening and future energy upside) support the strategic path forward.Positive Updates
Signed 12‑Year Capacity Agreement Worth >$1 Billion (Pending Regulatory Approval)
Subsequent to quarter end Hallador executed a 12‑year capacity agreement with a utility subsidiary expected to generate more than $1.0 billion of contracted revenue from 2028 through 2040 at pricing levels more than 2x historical contracted capacity pricing; combined with a March 3‑year agreement the two capacity‑only sales total approximately $1.1 billion and place the company in a substantially sold‑forward position on accredited capacity for ~14 consecutive years (initial smaller 2028 volume rising to ~2/3 of accredited capacity from 2029–2040).
Negative Updates
Merom Availability Constraints Reduced Electric Sales
Merom experienced availability constraints that continued from Q4 into Q1, lowering generation and reducing electric sales to $65.1 million in Q1 2026 from $85.9 million in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 24.2%; outage‑related replacement power costs also pressured results.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Signed 12‑Year Capacity Agreement Worth >$1 Billion (Pending Regulatory Approval)
Subsequent to quarter end Hallador executed a 12‑year capacity agreement with a utility subsidiary expected to generate more than $1.0 billion of contracted revenue from 2028 through 2040 at pricing levels more than 2x historical contracted capacity pricing; combined with a March 3‑year agreement the two capacity‑only sales total approximately $1.1 billion and place the company in a substantially sold‑forward position on accredited capacity for ~14 consecutive years (initial smaller 2028 volume rising to ~2/3 of accredited capacity from 2029–2040).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q2 will be hit by a planned Merom outage and related replacement‑power costs but expects availability and generation to improve in H2 ahead of the summer peak; Q1 capex was $7.7M and full‑year capex is expected to increase modestly versus 2025 (ex‑ERAS), with spending focused on maintenance and reliability. They reiterated the company is well hedged for 2026 and in much stronger financial shape: no outstanding bank debt at March 31, 2026, total liquidity of $97.5M, a forward energy capacity sales position of $571.2M (vs. $543.5M at 12/31/25 and $630.4M at 3/31/25), third‑party forward coal sales of $288.4M, and a total forward sales book of ~ $1.2B (excluding the newly announced 12‑year capacity agreement expected to generate >$1B from 2028–2040). Combined with the March 3‑year capacity deal, management said the capacity‑only sales total ~ $1.1B and leave the company substantially sold forward for about 14 consecutive years (the new contract ramps from a smaller 2028 volume to ~2/3 of accredited capacity in 2029–2040). They also noted a new credit facility ($75M revolver + $45M delayed draw term loan, maturity March 2029) and that MISO is expected to pick up the ERAS application in June with a September decision (90‑day review).Hallador Energy Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 451.86M | 469.47M | 404.39M | 634.88M | 361.99M | 247.67M |
| Gross Profit | 19.31M | 87.28M | 225.80M | 331.63M | 95.38M | 48.83M |
| EBITDA | 78.69M | 103.34M | -157.81M | 126.95M | 75.01M | 44.76M |
| Net Income | 22.57M | 41.87M | -226.14M | 44.79M | 18.11M | -3.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 448.63M | 437.46M | 369.12M | 589.78M | 654.08M | 353.98M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.36M | 10.07M | 7.23M | 2.84M | 6.43M | 2.55M |
| Total Debt | 6.21M | 39.07M | 53.05M | 94.54M | 102.20M | 107.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 243.06M | 277.63M | 264.83M | 321.19M | 439.05M | 167.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 205.57M | 159.83M | 104.28M | 268.59M | 215.02M | 182.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.99M | 11.92M | 12.57M | -15.94M | 149.00K | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 63.21M | 81.13M | 65.93M | 59.41M | 54.17M | 47.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -62.35M | -66.55M | -46.47M | -75.29M | -53.37M | -27.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 26.30M | -11.37M | -14.43M | 16.57M | -207.00K | -26.69M |
Hallador Energy Company Technical Analysis
Negative
15.75
Price Trends
16.81
Positive
17.98
Negative
18.65
Negative
Market Momentum
0.54
Positive
50.53
Neutral
17.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HNRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.47, below the 50-day MA of 16.81, and below the 200-day MA of 18.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HNRG.
Hallador Energy Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.36B | 20.90 | 18.84% | 4.05% | -15.69% | -18.53% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $829.97M | -20.31 | 14.25% | ― | 10.26% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $371.73M | 11.00 | 5.04% | 2.02% | 9.77% | -38.00% | |
56 Neutral | $668.64M | -31.66 | -10.33% | 6.72% | -1.41% | -170.39% | |
52 Neutral | $823.16M | -11.30 | -13.44% | 2.83% | -16.66% | -195120.00% | |
43 Neutral | $216.98M | -12.93 | 43.51% | ― | -76.24% | -8.61% |
* Energy Sector Average
HNRG
Hallador Energy Company
17.61
-1.79
-9.23%
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Hallador Energy Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hallador Energy Forms Board Risk Oversight Committee
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Hallador Energy Company’s board approved the creation of a new standing Risk Committee to strengthen oversight of the company’s enterprise risk management framework, covering strategic, operational, financial, market, a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hallador Energy Adopts 2026 Executive Compensation and Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Hallador Energy’s board approved a new 2026 Executive Officer Plan running from April 1, 2026 through March 31, 2027, replacing the 2024 plan and resetting severance arrangements for top management. The board raised annual ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hallador Energy Secures New Credit Facility, Refinances Debt
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Hallador Energy closed a new $120 million senior secured credit agreement maturing in 2029, comprising a $75 million revolving credit facility and a $45 million delayed draw term loan, with sub-facilities for letters of credit an...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hallador Energy Expands Board and Elevates Operational Leadership
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Hallador Energy Company expanded its board of directors to seven members with the appointment of independent director Daniel Hudson, who will serve until the company’s 2026 annual meeting and receive compensation under an e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.