Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.54B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 420.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 58.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -23.34%
• EPS Growth: -95.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -2.50
• Shares Outstanding: 13,052,684
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 416,113
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 420,236
• PEG Ratio: -0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.43
• 1Y Price Target: $141.50
• Price Target Upside: 19.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $128.00 ▲(8.41%Upside)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources faces significant challenges, including declining financial performance and a high P/E ratio suggesting overvaluation. While there is positive momentum and liquidity improvements, these are overshadowed by market pressures and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Capital Return Strategy

The company has a history of reducing costs during periods of weaker prices and has aggressively repurchased shares in recent years, indicating a strong capital return strategy.

Liquidity and Optionality

Alpha also announced a successful increase in its ABL facility to $225M from $155M providing the company with additional liquidity and optionality during these persistently tough market conditions.

Potential Long-term Upside

A recovery in metallurgical coal prices is expected to lead to higher free cash flow and a resumption of share repurchases, indicating potential long-term upside for Alpha's share price.

Negative Factors

Met Coal Prices and Free Cash Flow

Current coal prices are very weak, which puts capital returns on the back burner and impacts the company's free cash flow.

Steel Demand and Trade Uncertainty

Management maintains a cautious outlook as weak steel demand persists and trade uncertainty lingers.

Weather and Market Headwinds

Harsh winter weather and market conditions are expected to weigh on sales, cost/ton, and price/ton.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is a leading American coal supplier with operations primarily focused on the extraction, processing, and sale of metallurgical coal. The company is engaged in mining activities across various regions in the United States, catering primarily to the steel industry. AMR's core products include high-quality metallurgical coals that are integral in the production of steel, providing essential raw materials to steel manufacturers globally.

How the Company Makes Money

Alpha Metallurgical Resources makes money through the production and sale of metallurgical coal, which is a critical component used in steel manufacturing. The company's primary revenue stream is derived from contracts and spot market sales of coal to domestic and international steel producers. AMR's financial performance is influenced by coal market demand, global steel production levels, coal pricing, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may engage in long-term supply agreements with key customers, enhancing revenue predictability. Strategic partnerships with logistics and transportation companies also contribute to the efficient delivery of coal, optimizing sales channels and reducing costs.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources displays a stable financial base with strong equity and low leverage. However, challenges arise from declining revenue and profitability, along with pressures on cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has demonstrated strong revenue growth from 2020 to 2021, but revenue and profitability have declined significantly in 2024 and the TTM period. The gross and net profit margins have decreased, indicating pressure on profitability. Despite this, the company managed to maintain positive EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company has a very low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is high, further emphasizing a strong equity position. Return on equity has decreased in the TTM period but remains positive, reflecting a solid performance relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, impacting the free cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting challenges in maintaining previous cash flow levels.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
Gross Profit	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	455.55M	-13.92M
EBITDA	388.59M	1.02B	1.73B	511.66M	6.50M
Net Income	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-241.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
Total Debt	5.78M	14.41M	10.97M	448.55M	582.53M
Total Liabilities	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
Stockholders Equity	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
Operating Cash Flow	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 118.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 118.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.49, above the 50-day MA of 115.95, and below the 200-day MA of 160.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTU	76 Outperform	$1.96B	15.78	3.87%	1.86%	-5.83%	―
ARLP	75 Outperform	$3.51B	14.98	12.63%	10.57%	-8.59%	-54.87%
NRP	71 Outperform	$1.35B	9.84	31.98%	4.11%	-19.21%	-30.92%
METC	69 Neutral	$1.04B	43.10	-0.08%	2.35%	-10.23%	-100.04%
AMR	64 Neutral	$1.54B	58.50	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%
HCC	62 Neutral	$2.70B	25.52	5.20%	0.62%	-21.04%	-75.78%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$963.51M	-6.97	-14.61%	2.60%	17.59%	-32.64%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Reports Q1 Loss and Adjustments

On May 7, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources held its annual meeting of stockholders via webcast, where they elected six directors and approved executive compensation plans. The company also announced first quarter financial results, reporting a net loss of $33.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $5.7 million. They increased their asset-based revolving credit facility to $225 million and lowered their 2025 capital expenditure guidance due to challenging market conditions and adverse weather impacts.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights Safety Achievements

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million. The company emphasizes safety and environmental stewardship, boasting a lower incident rate compared to industry averages and receiving numerous awards for safety and environmental compliance. Alpha’s operations are spread across several mining complexes in West Virginia and Virginia, with a diverse product mix catering to both domestic and international markets.