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Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
NYSE:AMR
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Alpha Metallurgical Resources
(NYSE:AMR)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$168.00
▲(3.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
AMR’s score is primarily supported by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and still-positive cash generation, with earnings-call updates adding some forward visibility via 2026 commitments and operational progress. These positives are materially offset by sharply weakened profitability (including a net loss), very weak technical momentum (oversold and below key moving averages), and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Alpha’s low leverage and recent balance-sheet conservatism create durable financial flexibility. That cushion reduces refinancing and liquidity risk during commodity cycles, supports funding of sustaining capex and the Wildcat ramp, and preserves optionality for contract or M&A strategy over the next several quarters.
Material forward sales commitments
Having ~4.1M domestic committed tons (including priced and unpriced commitments) materially de-risks 2026 cash flows vs pure spot exposure. This forward coverage provides predictable volume and partial price visibility, enabling better capital allocation, fixed-cost absorption, and planning across production and logistics for the medium term.
Kingston Wildcat capacity ramp
The Wildcat mine ramp is a structural capacity and product-quality enhancement. New low-vol tonnage can improve product mix and margins over time, lower unit costs through scale, and diversify supply sources. Successful ramp supports sustainable growth in volumes once steel demand normalizes, strengthening medium-term operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
A 2025 net loss and sharply compressed margins highlight the company’s earnings cyclicality. Persistent low profitability undermines retained earnings, limits reinvestment capacity, and increases dependence on favorable met coal pricing to restore returns. This structural earnings volatility raises execution risk over multiple quarters.
Q4 EBITDA and operating cash decline
Sharp quarter-over-quarter drops in EBITDA and operating cash reduce internal funding available for sustaining capex and discretionary projects. If this trend persists through weak cycles, the company may need to draw on liquidity or delay investments, constraining the pace of the Wildcat ramp and limiting resilience during prolonged market weakness.
Seaborne oversupply and weak steel demand
Structural oversupply in high-vol seaborne markets, index divergence and subdued global steel demand weaken pricing power. As a seaborne-exposed met coal producer, AMR’s realizations and volume absorption remain vulnerable; prolonged weak demand would depress margins and lengthen the recovery timeline for earnings and cash generation.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)257.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.76
Revenue Growth-32.53%
EPS Growth-112.77%
CountryUS
Employees3,960
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.24
Shares Outstanding12,858,024
10 Day Avg. Volume249,276
30 Day Avg. Volume257,513
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)<0.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00122
P/FCF Ratio0.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-167.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-16.99K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-427.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$204.00Price Target Upside25.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyAMR generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial users. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of various grades of coal, which are tailored to meet specific customer requirements. Additionally, AMR's strategic partnerships with major steel manufacturers enhance its market position and provide stable demand for its products. The company also focuses on cost management and operational efficiency to maximize profit margins, further contributing to its overall earnings.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced outcome: the company demonstrated important operational progress (Kingston Wildcat ramp, infrastructure completions), stronger cost control (SG&A reduction) and a solid liquidity cushion plus meaningful domestic 2026 commitments (4.1M tons at $136.30). However, Q4 showed a sizable decline in adjusted EBITDA (-31.7%) and operating cash (-62.4%), volumes remain pressured, and market-level headwinds (high-vol oversupply, index divergence, weak global steel demand, and pricing uncertainty) could materially constrain near-term results. The positives (liquidity, commitments, growth project progress, cost reductions) mitigate but do not yet outweigh the financial and market challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong liquidity position
Unrestricted cash of $366.0M and $49.6M in short-term investments as of Dec 31, 2025, for total liquidity of $524.3M (down from $568.5M as of Sept 30, -7.8%), with $183.7M unused ABL availability and no borrowings on the ABL.
Material domestic sales commitments for 2026
Domestic commitments of 4,100,000 tons for 2026 at an average price of $136.30 (included an incremental 500,000 contracted tons since prior guidance), providing a committed cash-flow base to support planning.
Operational progress at Kingston Wildcat (low-vol)
Key infrastructure complete or substantially complete: permanent utility power, stockpile reclaim tunnel, raw coal railroad loadout, railcar off-loaders and transfer belts at Mammoth; ventilation shafts bored. Company expects roughly 500,000 tons produced from Wildcat in 2026 as it ramps toward ~1,000,000 tons/year capacity.
SG&A and cost performance improvement
SG&A (excluding non-cash stock comp and nonrecurring items) decreased to $10.9M in Q4 from $13.2M in Q3 (-17.4%), driven by reduced professional services spend and lower labor costs; company highlighted 'markedly improved cost performance' across 2025.
Met realizations edged higher quarter-over-quarter
Met segment average realization rose to $115.31/ton in Q4 from $114.94/ton in Q3 (+0.3%). Weighted average metallurgical sales realization increased to $118.10/ton from $117.62/ton (+0.4%). Export met coal priced on Australian indices realized $114.96/ton in Q4 vs $106.39/ton in Q3 (+8.0%).
Committed pricing coverage at guidance midpoint
At the midpoint of 2026 guidance, 37% of metallurgical tonnage is committed and priced at an average of $134.20/ton; 53% is committed but not yet priced; the thermal byproduct portion is 77% committed and priced at an average of $73.17/ton — providing meaningful forward coverage.
Operational recognition and terminal upgrades
Raven Mill Prep Plant and Marmet River Dock named 2025 David J. Stetson Best in Class winners. Dominion Terminal Associates plans a four-week planned outage for upgrades; company does not anticipate material negative impacts and views upgrades as long-term capability improvements.
Favorable short-term index moves in parts of the market
Australian Premium Low Vol (PLV) Index rose 14.6% Oct 1–Dec 31 and has further increased ~9% to $237/mt as of Feb 26; U.S. East Coast Low Vol rose 4.5% Oct–Dec and ~6% to $196/mt as of Feb 26 — creating some upside opportunity for low-vol product realizations.
Negative Updates
Significant quarter-over-quarter EBITDA decline
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $28.5M, down from $41.7M in Q3, a decline of approximately 31.7%, reflecting continued market weakness and volume/realization pressure.
Sharp drop in operating cash flow
Cash provided by operating activities fell to $19.0M in Q4 from $50.6M in Q3 (-62.4%), reducing near-term internally generated liquidity available for operations and discretionary uses.
Tonnage and volume pressure
Q4 coal sales were 3.8M tons, modestly down from 3.9M tons in Q3 (-2.6%). Management noted Q1 production cadence will be lower due to weather and Q4/ Q1 seasonality, which typically elevates costs.
Total liquidity modestly reduced
Total liquidity declined to $524.3M at year-end from $568.5M last quarter (-7.8%), though it remains above company targets; the decrease combined with lower operating cash flow is notable.
Weak high-vol market and oversupply risk
Company highlighted growing oversupply of high-vol coal (incremental tons from Alabama and Northern Appalachia) that is widening spreads and could exert downward pressure on realizations for Alpha if conditions persist.
Decline in incidental thermal realizations
Realizations for the incidental thermal portion of the met segment decreased to $77.80/ton in Q4 from $81.64/ton in Q3 (-4.6%), indicating pressure in lower-quality/thermal-priced material.
Index divergence may be temporary and uncertain
The recent Australian PLV surge was largely attributed to supply disruptions from Queensland flooding and management cautioned the move was likely isolated/temporary; divergence between Aussie indices and U.S. East Coast indices reduces confidence that recent index gains will be durable.
Ongoing macro uncertainty and competitive seaborne market
Global steel demand remains weak outside the U.S.; policy/tariff uncertainty and intense competition in Asia (especially when Australian supply is strong) are restraining sustainable demand growth, and management noted buyer hesitation amid tariff/market flux.
Company Guidance
Alpha issued 2026 guidance and reported they now have 4,100,000 domestic committed tons at an average price of $136.30 (an incremental +500,000 tons since the last update); at the midpoint of guidance 37% of metallurgical tonnage is committed and priced at an average of $134.20, another 53% of met tonnage is committed but unpriced (totaling ~90% committed), the thermal-byproduct portion is 77% committed and priced at $73.17 at the midpoint, and the new Kingston Wildcat mine is expected to produce roughly 500,000 tons in 2026 as it ramps toward a ~1,000,000-ton/year capacity; management also noted the forward strip has improved roughly $10 since guidance (potentially pushing Q1 above the prior upper guidance range) and that the 45X tax credit is estimated to provide roughly a $2/ton benefit.Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong balance sheet with conservative leverage supports resilience, and cash flow has remained positive. However, profitability has deteriorated sharply from the 2022–2023 peak, with compressed margins and a latest annual net loss, highlighting high earnings cyclicality.Income Statement
Profitability was very strong in 2022–2023 (high operating and net margins), but results cooled materially in 2024 with significantly lower margins and a revenue decline. The latest 2025 annual snapshot shows a net loss and extremely thin operating profitability, which is a meaningful deterioration versus the prior cycle peak and raises concerns about earnings volatility.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears conservative in recent years, with very low debt relative to equity from 2022–2025, providing strong financial flexibility. However, the company’s balance sheet has historically been cyclical—2020–2021 showed much higher leverage and weaker returns—so the main risk is the potential for equity and returns to compress quickly in a down-cycle.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation was robust in 2022–2024 with operating cash flow comfortably exceeding net income and consistently positive free cash flow, though free cash flow declined in 2023 and again in 2024. The 2025 annual data still shows positive operating and free cash flow, but cash flow covered a smaller share of earnings quality metrics versus prior years (and the period includes a net loss), pointing to more volatile cash conversion.64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.13T | 2.96B | 3.47B | 4.10B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 0.00 | 331.65M | 969.89M | 1.69B | 457.61M |
| EBITDA | 3.11B | 388.59M | 1.02B | 1.70B | 485.14M |
| Net Income | -61.69B | 187.58M | 721.96M | 1.45B | 288.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.28T | 2.44B | 2.41B | 2.31B | 1.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 415.56B | 481.58M | 268.21M | 347.96M | 81.21M |
| Total Debt | 13.42B | 5.78M | 10.37M | 10.97M | 448.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 735.13B | 789.21M | 832.13M | 882.72M | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55T | 1.65B | 1.57B | 1.43B | 546.91M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.77B | 381.07M | 605.79M | 1.32B | 91.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.93B | 579.92M | 851.16M | 1.48B | 174.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.97B | -230.99M | -166.00M | -329.36M | -89.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.23B | -128.90M | -656.43M | -981.87M | -147.04M |
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
162.65
Price Trends
207.08
Negative
186.70
Negative
158.99
Positive
Market Momentum
-11.55
Positive
26.95
Positive
15.45
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.79, below the 50-day MA of 207.08, and above the 200-day MA of 158.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.95 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMR.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Risk Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.59B | 12.06 | 26.19% | 4.05% | -14.79% | -17.10% | |
77 Outperform | $3.41B | 11.04 | 16.80% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
62 Neutral | $3.84B | -70.42 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $4.38B | 76.82 | 2.69% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
56 Neutral | $2.09B | -45.58 | -2.87% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
48 Neutral | $964.69M | -16.54 | -12.16% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
162.65
31.07
23.61%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.49
3.76
16.54%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
121.05
26.46
27.97%
METC
Ramaco Resources
15.14
6.89
83.52%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
83.24
35.62
74.79%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
31.54
18.62
144.16%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alpha Metallurgical Highlights Strength in New Investor Presentation
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
In February 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources circulated a draft investor presentation highlighting its position as the largest U.S. metallurgical coal producer, accounting for about one-fifth of national output and supported by a diversified complex of mines and processing facilities across Appalachia. The materials emphasized the company’s 2025 operational performance, reserve base of 294 million tons, export-heavy sales mix and safety and environmental record, underscoring its role in global steel supply chains and its efforts to maintain efficiency amid mine idlings and industry cost and regulatory pressures.
The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $203.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
Alpha Metallurgical Projects 2026 Sales Growth Strategy
Positive
Dec 12, 2025
On December 12, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced its guidance expectations for 2026, projecting sales volumes between 15.1 million and 16.5 million tons. The company plans to focus on safe production, efficiency, and cost containment, while investing in the Kingston Wildcat mine to enhance its portfolio. The guidance reflects Alpha’s strategy to navigate challenging market conditions and position itself for future growth when steel demand improves.
The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.