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Alpha Metallurgical Resources
(NYSE:AMR)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$154.00
▲(7.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
AMR scores in the low-to-mid range primarily due to sharply weaker profitability and free-cash-flow momentum versus the prior peak, plus cautious guidance and operational disruption risk from terminal damage. The key offset is a very strong, low-debt balance sheet and solid liquidity/operating cash flow, which helps cushion cyclical pressures. Technicals and valuation (negative P/E, no dividend data) add little support.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Extremely low leverage and substantial equity provide durable financial flexibility. This balance-sheet strength supports capital spending, funds operations during cyclical downturns, reduces refinancing risk, and gives management latitude to absorb shocks like terminal disruptions without needing near-term external financing.
Negative Factors
Earnings deterioration
A multi-year revenue decline and recent net losses signal cyclical stress and margin compression. Weak profitability reduces retained earnings, limits internal funding for growth, and increases sensitivity to adverse price or cost moves; prolonged weakness could force deeper operational cuts or defer projects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Extremely low leverage and substantial equity provide durable financial flexibility. This balance-sheet strength supports capital spending, funds operations during cyclical downturns, reduces refinancing risk, and gives management latitude to absorb shocks like terminal disruptions without needing near-term external financing.
Read all positive factors
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)234.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth-19.15%
EPS Growth-246.35%
CountryUS
Employees3,950
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.59
Shares Outstanding12,714,624
10 Day Avg. Volume222,984
30 Day Avg. Volume234,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.22
P/FCF Ratio146.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$171.33Price Target Upside19.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.19B
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal pre...
How the Company Makes Money
AMR makes money primarily by extracting, processing, and selling coal, with its revenue largely driven by metallurgical coal used in steel production. The core revenue stream is sales of met coal products (including higher-quality coking coal) to ...
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: operational and financial positives (strong operating cash flow growth, sizable liquidity position, cost improvements per ton, committed/priced book, thermal realization gains, new mine ramp-up, and safety recognitions) are offset by significant near-term challenges (lowered shipment guidance, decreased realizations, increased cost guidance driven by diesel and supply inflation, DTA terminal damage with uncertain recovery timing, and weaker global metallurgical demand). Given the balance of meaningful positives and notable headwinds and uncertainties, the tone is cautious and indicates a neutral near-term outlook.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $25.6 million in Q2 (down from $30.0M in Q1, -14.7%), while cash provided by operating activities increased to $39.9 million in Q2 from $29.0M in Q1 (+37.6%), demonstrating solid operating cash generation despite weaker margins.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Shipments and Guidance Reduction
Q2 shipments were 3.5 million tons, down from 3.6M in Q1 (-2.8%). Full-year shipment guidance was lowered to a range of 14.2M–15.4M tons, with the midpoint reduced by ~1.0M tons from initial expectations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $25.6 million in Q2 (down from $30.0M in Q1, -14.7%), while cash provided by operating activities increased to $39.9 million in Q2 from $29.0M in Q1 (+37.6%), demonstrating solid operating cash generation despite weaker margins.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alpha updated 2026 guidance to shipments of 14.2–15.4 million tons (midpoint cut by ~1.0 million tons versus initial expectations) and cost of coal sales guidance of $103–$107/ton (midpoint raised by $7/ton from earlier estimates) reflecting higher diesel and supplies costs and reduced terminal throughput after the June 14 storm that severely damaged one of DTA’s two stacker reclaimers; the guidance assumes continued reduced DTA capacity with mitigation via other East Coast terminals. The revision was driven by softer first‑half results (Q2 shipments 3.5 million tons; adjusted EBITDA $25.6 million) and Q2 Met cost of $103.07/ton (down from $107.98 in Q1) alongside lower realizations (Met avg $118.71/ton in Q2 versus $124.39 in Q1; weighted metallurgical $124.30/ton vs $128.40; incidental thermal $79.36/ton vs $69.41). At the midpoint, 70% of Met tonnage is committed and priced at an average of $128.17/ton, 30% is committed but unpriced, and the thermal byproduct is fully committed and priced at an average of $75.94/ton; market context noted Aussie PLV/US East Coast Low‑Vol spreads tightened (PLV ~14% above US low‑vol vs ~23% in May) with PLV down to $214.30/mt as of Aug 6 while US East Coast Low‑Vol ≈ $188/ton, High‑Vol A ≈ $156 and High‑Vol B ≈ $146.50.Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.07B | 2.13B | 2.96B | 3.47B | 4.10B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 17.67M | 2.71M | 331.65M | 969.89M | 1.69B | 457.61M |
| EBITDA | 106.36M | 117.64M | 388.59M | 1.02B | 1.70B | 485.14M |
| Net Income | -46.07M | -61.69M | 187.58M | 721.96M | 1.45B | 288.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.26B | 2.28B | 2.44B | 2.41B | 2.31B | 1.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 338.48M | 415.56M | 481.58M | 268.21M | 347.96M | 81.21M |
| Total Debt | 11.40M | 23.40M | 5.78M | 10.37M | 10.97M | 448.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 756.93M | 735.13M | 789.21M | 832.13M | 882.72M | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.55B | 1.65B | 1.57B | 1.43B | 546.91M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.45M | 17.77M | 381.07M | 605.79M | 1.32B | 91.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 138.42M | 144.93M | 579.92M | 851.16M | 1.48B | 174.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -196.37M | -203.97M | -230.99M | -166.00M | -329.36M | -89.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.37M | -52.23M | -128.90M | -656.43M | -981.87M | -147.04M |
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis
Neutral
142.94
Price Trends
167.17
Negative
180.70
Negative
184.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.54
Negative
51.23
Neutral
83.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 142.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.12, below the 50-day MA of 167.17, and below the 200-day MA of 184.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMR.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Risk Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.34B | 12.60 | 14.82% | 9.71% | -5.11% | 13.03% | |
72 Outperform | $1.30B | 11.36 | 16.78% | 3.18% | -15.69% | -18.53% | |
67 Neutral | $4.19B | 30.31 | 10.02% | 0.40% | 11.32% | 29.65% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $2.60B | -14.18 | -5.29% | 1.32% | -0.68% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.74B | -45.57 | -2.99% | ― | -19.15% | -246.35% | |
43 Neutral | $568.30M | -8.19 | -13.54% | ― | -16.66% | -195120.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
151.95
-4.19
-2.68%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
24.62
2.25
10.08%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
106.96
5.11
5.02%
METC
Ramaco Resources
10.24
-13.25
-56.41%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
91.97
31.83
52.93%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
23.81
6.36
36.49%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alpha Metallurgical outlines strategy as leading U.S. met coal producer
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
In an investor presentation dated August 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources detailed its operational footprint and product mix, underscoring its position as the No. 1 U.S. producer of metallurgical coal by volume in 2025. The company reported 15....
Business Operations and Strategy
Alpha Metallurgical faces disruption after storm damages equipment
Negative
Jun 18, 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported that a key stacker reclaimer at Dominion Terminal Associates in Newport News, Va., where it holds a 65% majority stake, was severely damaged by wind gusts exceeding 80 miles per hour during a storm on Sunday ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights 2025 Operational Performance
Neutral
May 8, 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources highlighted its position as the leading U.S. producer of metallurgical coal, reporting 15.3 million tons sold and adjusted EBITDA of $122 million in 2025, supported by a 3,950-strong workforce and a geographically con...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Alpha Metallurgical Shareholders Reelect Board, Approve Compensation
Neutral
May 8, 2026
At its May 6, 2026 annual meeting, Alpha Metallurgical Resources shareholders re-elected six directors, gave advisory approval to the company’s executive compensation and overwhelmingly ratified RSM LLP as independent auditor, with 83.45% of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.