Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.79B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 451.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 64.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: -29.63%
• EPS Growth: -108.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 13,053,823
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 599,214
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 451,794
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.30
• 1Y Price Target: $160.33
• Price Target Upside: 16.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $146.00 ▲(5.69% Upside)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources' overall stock score reflects a combination of short-term financial challenges and moderate technical strength. The company's strong liquidity and cost management improvements are positive, but the negative valuation metrics and market challenges weigh heavily. The earnings call provided some optimism, but the broader economic and industry conditions remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The company achieved its best quarterly cost/ton performance since 2021, with improved productivity and reduced labor, repair, and maintenance costs.

Earnings

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported 2Q adjusted EBITDA of $46M, significantly surpassing the $13M consensus due to higher revenues and lower expenses.

Negative Factors

Coal Prices

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is highly leveraged to changes in metallurgical coal prices, which have been weak, leading to a decline in the share price.

Market Challenges

Challenges remain due to weak global steel demand, economic uncertainty, and ongoing trade negotiations.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Alpha Metallurgical Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel manufacturers and other industrial customers. The company has established long-term contracts and relationships with major steel producers, which provide a stable revenue stream. Additionally, AMR benefits from fluctuations in coal prices, allowing it to capitalize on market demand. The company also engages in the sale of thermal coal, contributing to its overall earnings. Partnerships with transportation companies enhance its distribution capabilities, ensuring efficient delivery of products to customers, which further supports its revenue generation.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources shows a mixed financial performance. The company has a strong balance sheet with low leverage and a solid equity position, but faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability. Cash flow generation remains positive, although there are signs of pressure. While the company is financially stable, it needs to address profitability and cash flow concerns to sustain its performance.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has demonstrated strong revenue growth from 2020 to 2021, but revenue and profitability have declined significantly in 2024 and the TTM period. The gross and net profit margins have decreased, indicating pressure on profitability. Despite this, the company managed to maintain positive EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company has a very low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is high, further emphasizing a strong equity position. Return on equity has decreased in the TTM period but remains positive, reflecting a solid performance relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, impacting the free cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting challenges in maintaining previous cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.37B	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
Gross Profit	63.91M	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	455.55M	-13.92M
EBITDA	140.52M	388.59M	1.02B	1.73B	511.66M	6.50M
Net Income	-37.23M	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-446.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.37B	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	449.03M	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
Total Debt	5.77M	5.78M	14.41M	10.97M	448.55M	588.20M
Total Liabilities	759.40M	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
Stockholders Equity	1.61B	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.91M	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
Operating Cash Flow	321.13M	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-185.62M	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.63M	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 138.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 138.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 136.66, above the 50-day MA of 123.87, and below the 200-day MA of 155.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NRP	73 Outperform	$1.35B	9.67	28.59%	4.07%	-20.92%	-26.59%
ARLP	72 Outperform	$3.01B	12.87	12.59%	11.75%	-8.59%	-55.01%
BTU	67 Neutral	$2.01B	16.12	3.87%	1.88%	-5.83%	-73.88%
HCC	66 Neutral	$3.04B	75.16	1.95%	0.55%	-27.62%	-90.48%
METC	63 Neutral	$1.32B	43.10	-5.55%	2.30%	-12.79%	-134.14%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.07B	6.27	0.58%	3.01%	2.91%	-45.05%
AMR	57 Neutral	$1.79B	64.14	-2.29%	0.36%	-29.63%	-108.26%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights Safety Achievements

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has demonstrated strong operational performance in 2024, with significant contributions to safety and environmental stewardship. The company has achieved a lower incident rate compared to industry averages and has been recognized with numerous safety and environmental awards, reflecting its commitment to responsible mining practices.