Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 237.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: -32.53%
• EPS Growth: -112.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 12,858,024
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 231,698
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 237,977
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 45.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.68
• 1Y Price Target: $205.00
• Price Target Upside: -7.26% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $220.00 ▼(-0.48% Downside)

The score is primarily held back by weakened profitability and free cash flow trends despite a comparatively solid balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with the stock above major moving averages, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation is pressured by losses (negative P/E), while earnings-call commentary was mixed—highlighting cost and liquidity strength but softer realizations and a challenging demand outlook.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / stable balance sheet

Alpha's low debt-to-equity and relatively stable capital structure provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. Lower leverage reduces default and refinancing risk, enabling the company to fund mine development, weather weak realizations, and prioritize operational improvements without urgent deleveraging.

Strong liquidity position

Nearly $570M in total liquidity gives Alpha a multi-month cushion to manage capital expenditures, working capital and potential shipment disruptions. This runway supports contract negotiations, mine ramp investments and risk management during periods of weaker EBITDA or delayed cash collection.

Kingston Wildcat mine ramp

The Kingston Wildcat development adds scalable, higher-return capacity tied to metallurgical coal. Reaching ~1M tons supports medium-term volume growth and portfolio diversification, improving revenue optionality when steel demand recovers and enhancing long-term asset base and cash generation potential.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and negative net income

Sustained revenue contraction and negative net income reflect structural pressure on realizations and profitability. Persisting losses erode equity, limit retained-capital for reinvestment, and raise the bar for recovery; prolonged margin weakness can hinder funding for operations and strategic projects.

Sharp free cash flow deterioration

A marked fall in free cash flow reduces organic funding for capex, mine development and debt repayment. Even with positive operating cash, weaker FCF forces reliance on liquidity or external financing, constraining strategic flexibility and increasing sensitivity to prolonged low realizations or cost inflation.

Soft realizations, EBITDA decline and logistics risk

Falling per-ton realizations and sequential EBITDA declines signal structural demand softness in steel markets. Combined with rail disruption risk, these factors create persistent revenue and margin volatility, lengthening recovery timelines and making cash flows less predictable for investment and debt servicing.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

AMR generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial users. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of various grades of coal, which are tailored to meet specific customer requirements. Additionally, AMR's strategic partnerships with major steel manufacturers enhance its market position and provide stable demand for its products. The company also focuses on cost management and operational efficiency to maximize profit margins, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the income statement shows declining revenue, negative TTM net income, and sharply weaker margins, while the balance sheet remains relatively strong with low leverage. Cash flow has weakened meaningfully with a sharp decline in free cash flow despite still-positive operating cash generation.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has experienced significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The TTM data shows a decline in revenue and negative net income, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. Historical data reveals a sharp decline in gross and net profit margins from 2022 to 2025, reflecting operational difficulties. However, the company had strong revenue growth in 2021 and 2022, which suggests potential for recovery if operational efficiencies improve.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alpha Metallurgical Resources is relatively stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, indicating low leverage. However, the return on equity has turned negative in the TTM, reflecting recent profitability challenges. Historically, the company has maintained a healthy equity ratio, suggesting a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting some operational cash generation capability. However, the sharp decline in free cash flow compared to previous years highlights the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.23B	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
Gross Profit	54.71M	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	457.61M	-13.92M
EBITDA	132.85M	388.59M	1.02B	1.70B	485.14M	-7.58M
Net Income	-46.55M	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-446.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.35B	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	457.92M	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
Total Debt	4.97M	5.78M	10.37M	10.97M	448.55M	582.53M
Total Liabilities	753.17M	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
Stockholders Equity	1.59B	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.34M	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
Operating Cash Flow	182.22M	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-217.95M	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.59M	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 221.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 221.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 227.22, above the 50-day MA of 199.23, and above the 200-day MA of 152.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	72 Outperform	$3.12B	12.85	13.07%	11.05%	-9.45%	-46.37%
NRP	67 Neutral	$1.50B	10.47	26.19%	4.05%	-14.79%	-17.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HCC	61 Neutral	$4.74B	134.93	1.67%	0.36%	-23.25%	-90.78%
BTU	61 Neutral	$4.28B	-124.72	-0.87%	0.96%	-7.21%	-106.39%
METC	56 Neutral	$1.42B	―	-7.40%	2.83%	-16.99%	-184.02%
AMR	54 Neutral	$2.77B	-61.95	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Projects 2026 Sales Growth Strategy

On December 12, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced its guidance expectations for 2026, projecting sales volumes between 15.1 million and 16.5 million tons. The company plans to focus on safe production, efficiency, and cost containment, while investing in the Kingston Wildcat mine to enhance its portfolio. The guidance reflects Alpha’s strategy to navigate challenging market conditions and position itself for future growth when steel demand improves.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.

Alpha Metallurgical Announces 2026 Sales Commitments

On November 25, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced its 2026 domestic sales commitments, securing approximately 3.6 million tons of metallurgical coal for domestic customers at an average price of $136.75 per ton. This commitment, which includes a small carryover from 2025, reflects Alpha’s strategic positioning in the U.S. steel industry and its readiness to adjust contracts as needed to meet market demands.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $176.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights Safety Achievements

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million. The company emphasizes safety and environmental stewardship, boasting a significantly lower incident rate compared to the industry average and receiving numerous safety and environmental awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMR) stock is a Hold with a $188.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock, see the AMR Stock Forecast page.