Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 277.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: -32.53%
• EPS Growth: -112.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 12,858,024
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 264,237
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 277,150
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 30.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.67
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.16B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $198.00 ▲(16.53% Upside)

The overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance, particularly in profitability and cash flow stability. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, which is a strong point. However, valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield weigh down the score. Mixed sentiment from the earnings call also contributes to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Cost Management

Effective cost management enhances profitability and competitive positioning, allowing the company to better withstand market fluctuations.

Safety and Environmental Achievements

Strong safety and environmental performance can lead to lower operational risks and enhance the company's reputation, supporting long-term sustainability.

Liquidity Position

A robust liquidity position provides financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns, ensuring business continuity.

Negative Factors

Decline in Adjusted EBITDA

A decline in EBITDA indicates reduced profitability, which can impact the company's ability to reinvest in operations and maintain competitive advantage.

Decreased Realizations in Met Segment

Lower realizations in the metallurgical segment may pressure margins and affect revenue, challenging the company's financial performance.

Uncertain Market and Economic Conditions

Economic uncertainty and market softness can lead to reduced demand for metallurgical coal, impacting sales and long-term growth prospects.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is a leading coal producer in the United States, primarily focused on the extraction and processing of high-quality metallurgical coal. The company operates several mining complexes and has established a strong presence in the metallurgical coal market, supplying critical inputs for steel manufacturing. AMR is committed to sustainable practices and employs advanced technologies in its operations to enhance efficiency and minimize environmental impact.

How the Company Makes Money

AMR generates revenue primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal to steel producers and other industrial users. The company benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing it to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of various grades of coal, which are tailored to meet specific customer requirements. Additionally, AMR's strategic partnerships with major steel manufacturers enhance its market position and provide stable demand for its products. The company also focuses on cost management and operational efficiency to maximize profit margins, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources faces challenges in maintaining profitability and cash flow stability, with declining margins and cash flow metrics in the TTM period. The balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, but operational inefficiencies need addressing for improved financial performance.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has experienced significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The TTM data shows a decline in revenue and negative net income, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. Historical data reveals a sharp decline in gross and net profit margins from 2022 to 2025, reflecting operational difficulties. However, the company had strong revenue growth in 2021 and 2022, which suggests potential for recovery if operational efficiencies improve.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alpha Metallurgical Resources is relatively stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, indicating low leverage. However, the return on equity has turned negative in the TTM, reflecting recent profitability challenges. Historically, the company has maintained a healthy equity ratio, suggesting a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting some operational cash generation capability. However, the sharp decline in free cash flow compared to previous years highlights the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.23B	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
Gross Profit	54.71M	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	457.61M	-13.92M
EBITDA	132.85M	388.59M	1.02B	1.70B	485.14M	-7.58M
Net Income	-46.55M	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-446.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.35B	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	457.92M	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
Total Debt	4.97M	5.78M	10.37M	10.97M	448.55M	582.53M
Total Liabilities	753.17M	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
Stockholders Equity	1.59B	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.34M	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
Operating Cash Flow	182.22M	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-217.95M	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.59M	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 169.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 169.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.52, above the 50-day MA of 165.89, and above the 200-day MA of 138.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	72 Outperform	$3.10B	12.76	13.07%	10.77%	-9.45%	-46.37%
HCC	69 Neutral	$4.38B	124.92	1.67%	0.38%	-23.25%	-90.78%
NRP	67 Neutral	$1.37B	9.56	26.19%	4.03%	-14.79%	-17.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
AMR	59 Neutral	$2.38B	―	-2.87%	―	-32.53%	-112.77%
BTU	57 Neutral	$3.54B	―	-0.87%	1.03%	-7.21%	-106.39%
METC	52 Neutral	$993.14M	―	-7.40%	3.07%	-16.99%	-184.02%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Projects 2026 Sales Growth Strategy

On December 12, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced its guidance expectations for 2026, projecting sales volumes between 15.1 million and 16.5 million tons. The company plans to focus on safe production, efficiency, and cost containment, while investing in the Kingston Wildcat mine to enhance its portfolio. The guidance reflects Alpha’s strategy to navigate challenging market conditions and position itself for future growth when steel demand improves.

Alpha Metallurgical Announces 2026 Sales Commitments

On November 25, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced its 2026 domestic sales commitments, securing approximately 3.6 million tons of metallurgical coal for domestic customers at an average price of $136.75 per ton. This commitment, which includes a small carryover from 2025, reflects Alpha’s strategic positioning in the U.S. steel industry and its readiness to adjust contracts as needed to meet market demands.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights Safety Achievements

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million. The company emphasizes safety and environmental stewardship, boasting a significantly lower incident rate compared to the industry average and receiving numerous safety and environmental awards.