Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 294.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -23.34%
• EPS Growth: -95.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,960
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): -2.50
• Shares Outstanding: 13,052,684
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 289,766
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 294,060
• PEG Ratio: -0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.63
• 1Y Price Target: $181.00
• Price Target Upside: 56.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $130.00 ▲( 12.11% Upside)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources faces a challenging environment with declining revenues and profitability, exacerbated by external market conditions. While the company maintains a strong balance sheet, its current valuation appears stretched given the profitability pressures. The technical indicators suggest limited momentum, and the cautious guidance further tempers the outlook. Overall, the company needs to address profitability and market challenges to improve its stock performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Liquidity

Alpha Metallurgical Resources announced a successful increase in its ABL facility to $225M from $155M, providing the company with additional liquidity and optionality during tough market conditions.

Mine Development

Development of Alpha's Kingston Wildcat low-vol met mine should not be impacted, with initial cuts still expected to start in late 2025.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $6M, missing the $28M consensus as market, weather, and geologic challenges weighed on revenues and expenses.

Operational Challenges

First quarter operations have been pressured by continued weakness in global steel markets and significant challenges from extreme winter weather.

Steel Demand

Management maintains a cautious outlook as weak steel demand persists and trade uncertainty lingers.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Alpha Metallurgical Resources makes money primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal, which is an essential component in the steel production process. The company's revenue model is centered on mining operations that extract coal from its reserves, which is then processed and sold to steel manufacturers. Key revenue streams for AMR include long-term supply contracts with major steel producers and spot market sales, depending on market conditions. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and logistical capabilities that facilitate efficient transportation and delivery of coal to its customers. Factors such as coal quality, market demand, and global steel production trends significantly influence AMR's earnings.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources shows a mixed financial performance. The company has a strong balance sheet with low leverage and a solid equity position, but faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability. Cash flow generation remains positive, although there are signs of pressure. While the company is financially stable, it needs to address profitability and cash flow concerns to sustain its performance.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has demonstrated strong revenue growth from 2020 to 2021, but revenue and profitability have declined significantly in 2024 and the TTM period. The gross and net profit margins have decreased, indicating pressure on profitability. Despite this, the company managed to maintain positive EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company has a very low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is high, further emphasizing a strong equity position. Return on equity has decreased in the TTM period but remains positive, reflecting a solid performance relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, impacting the free cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting challenges in maintaining previous cash flow levels.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.63B	2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
	Gross Profit
140.38M	331.65M	969.89M	1.69B	455.55M	-13.92M
	EBIT
45.80M	227.85M	863.09M	1.58B	357.14M	-93.98M
	EBITDA
204.62M	388.59M	1.02B	1.73B	511.66M	6.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
26.64M	187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-241.47M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
269.39M	481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
	Total Assets
2.46B	2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
	Total Debt
9.43M	5.78M	14.41M	10.97M	448.55M	582.53M
	Net Debt
-259.96M	-475.79M	-253.79M	-290.93M	367.34M	443.30M
	Total Liabilities
869.66M	789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
	Stockholders Equity
1.59B	1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
232.35M	381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
406.03M	579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
	Investing Cash Flow
-209.90M	-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
	Financing Cash Flow
-15.26M	-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 115.96
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.57, below the 50-day MA of 122.73, and below the 200-day MA of 186.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTU	80 Outperform	$1.69B	5.21	10.33%	2.16%	-7.42%	-26.06%
ARLP	80 Outperform	$3.38B	12.36	14.71%	10.64%	-8.53%	-53.44%
NRP	68 Neutral	$1.27B	9.27	31.98%	3.11%	-19.21%	-30.92%
METC	62 Neutral	$487.21M	43.10	-0.08%	4.55%	-10.23%	-100.04%
AMR	61 Neutral	$1.51B	57.45	1.66%	0.36%	-23.34%	-95.18%
HCC	59 Neutral	$2.38B	22.50	5.20%	0.71%	-21.04%	-75.78%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$2.00B	-1.13	-21.16%	3.71%	2.15%	-30.95%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Reports Q1 Loss and Adjustments

On May 7, 2025, Alpha Metallurgical Resources held its annual meeting of stockholders via webcast, where they elected six directors and approved executive compensation plans. The company also announced first quarter financial results, reporting a net loss of $33.9 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $5.7 million. They increased their asset-based revolving credit facility to $225 million and lowered their 2025 capital expenditure guidance due to challenging market conditions and adverse weather impacts.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Highlights Safety Achievements

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million. The company emphasizes safety and environmental stewardship, boasting a lower incident rate compared to industry averages and receiving numerous awards for safety and environmental compliance. Alpha’s operations are spread across several mining complexes in West Virginia and Virginia, with a diverse product mix catering to both domestic and international markets.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Leads in U.S. Coal Production

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million, solidifying its position as the top U.S. producer of metallurgical coal. The company emphasizes safety and environmental responsibility, boasting a lower incident rate and numerous awards for safety and environmental compliance. This focus on operational excellence and sustainability is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the global coal market.