Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
NYSE:AMR
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Alpha Metallurgical Resources
(NYSE:AMR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$235.00
▲(7.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong, low-leverage financial position but tempered by sharply weaker recent profitability (including a net loss) and cyclical earnings risk. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation is pressured by the negative P/E. Earnings call takeaways are mixed: strong forward commitments and operational progress are offset by weaker Q4 cash generation and challenging market conditions.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Liquidity
A large cash balance and unused ABL give Alpha durable financial flexibility to fund operations, support the Kingston ramp and absorb cyclical revenue shortfalls. This liquidity buffer reduces near-term refinancing risk and underpins capital allocation choices across 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility & Net Loss
A recent net loss and sharp margin compression versus prior cycle highlight structural earnings cyclicality. Coal earnings are tightly linked to global steel demand and index pricing, making sustained profit recovery uncertain absent durable market improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Liquidity
A large cash balance and unused ABL give Alpha durable financial flexibility to fund operations, support the Kingston ramp and absorb cyclical revenue shortfalls. This liquidity buffer reduces near-term refinancing risk and underpins capital allocation choices across 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)312.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth-32.53%
EPS Growth-112.77%
CountryUS
Employees3,960
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.24
Shares Outstanding12,792,685
10 Day Avg. Volume301,999
30 Day Avg. Volume312,108
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.22
P/FCF Ratio146.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit177.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$206.00Price Target Upside-5.49% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.39B
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. ...
How the Company Makes Money
AMR makes money primarily by selling coal, with metallurgical coal as its main profit driver. Revenue is generated when the company produces coal from its mines, processes it through preparation plants to meet customer specifications (e.g., ash an...
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced outcome: the company demonstrated important operational progress (Kingston Wildcat ramp, infrastructure completions), stronger cost control (SG&A reduction) and a solid liquidity cushion plus meaningful domestic 2026 commitments (4.1M tons at $136.30). However, Q4 showed a sizable decline in adjusted EBITDA (-31.7%) and operating cash (-62.4%), volumes remain pressured, and market-level headwinds (high-vol oversupply, index divergence, weak global steel demand, and pricing uncertainty) could materially constrain near-term results. The positives (liquidity, commitments, growth project progress, cost reductions) mitigate but do not yet outweigh the financial and market challenges.Positive Updates
Strong liquidity position
Unrestricted cash of $366.0M and $49.6M in short-term investments as of Dec 31, 2025, for total liquidity of $524.3M (down from $568.5M as of Sept 30, -7.8%), with $183.7M unused ABL availability and no borrowings on the ABL.
Negative Updates
Significant quarter-over-quarter EBITDA decline
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $28.5M, down from $41.7M in Q3, a decline of approximately 31.7%, reflecting continued market weakness and volume/realization pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong liquidity position
Unrestricted cash of $366.0M and $49.6M in short-term investments as of Dec 31, 2025, for total liquidity of $524.3M (down from $568.5M as of Sept 30, -7.8%), with $183.7M unused ABL availability and no borrowings on the ABL.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alpha issued 2026 guidance and reported they now have 4,100,000 domestic committed tons at an average price of $136.30 (an incremental +500,000 tons since the last update); at the midpoint of guidance 37% of metallurgical tonnage is committed and priced at an average of $134.20, another 53% of met tonnage is committed but unpriced (totaling ~90% committed), the thermal-byproduct portion is 77% committed and priced at $73.17 at the midpoint, and the new Kingston Wildcat mine is expected to produce roughly 500,000 tons in 2026 as it ramps toward a ~1,000,000-ton/year capacity; management also noted the forward strip has improved roughly $10 since guidance (potentially pushing Q1 above the prior upper guidance range) and that the 45X tax credit is estimated to provide roughly a $2/ton benefit.Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.13B | 2.96B | 3.47B | 4.10B | 2.26B |
| Gross Profit | 2.71M | 331.65M | 969.89M | 1.69B | 457.61M |
| EBITDA | 117.64M | 388.59M | 1.02B | 1.70B | 485.14M |
| Net Income | -61.69M | 187.58M | 721.96M | 1.45B | 288.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.28B | 2.44B | 2.41B | 2.31B | 1.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 415.56M | 481.58M | 268.21M | 347.96M | 81.21M |
| Total Debt | 23.40M | 5.78M | 10.37M | 10.97M | 448.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 735.13M | 789.21M | 832.13M | 882.72M | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.65B | 1.57B | 1.43B | 546.91M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.77M | 381.07M | 605.79M | 1.32B | 91.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.93M | 579.92M | 851.16M | 1.48B | 174.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.97M | -230.99M | -166.00M | -329.36M | -89.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.23M | -128.90M | -656.43M | -981.87M | -147.04M |
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
217.97
Price Trends
199.47
Positive
190.89
Positive
164.82
Positive
Market Momentum
3.73
Negative
68.44
Neutral
68.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 217.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 183.57, above the 50-day MA of 199.47, and above the 200-day MA of 164.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMR.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Risk Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.61B | 10.38 | 22.94% | 4.05% | -14.79% | -17.10% | |
77 Outperform | $3.60B | 9.58 | 17.15% | 11.05% | -9.45% | -46.37% | |
66 Neutral | $2.57B | -42.11 | -3.88% | ― | -32.53% | -112.77% | |
62 Neutral | $4.65B | -68.38 | -1.47% | 0.96% | -7.21% | -106.39% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $4.55B | 81.30 | 2.71% | 0.36% | -23.25% | -90.78% | |
49 Neutral | $883.84M | -18.74 | -12.01% | 2.83% | -16.99% | -184.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
217.97
87.89
67.57%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
28.70
4.68
19.49%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
125.40
21.90
21.16%
METC
Ramaco Resources
14.29
6.42
81.48%
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
95.58
46.93
96.47%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
38.19
24.33
175.64%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alpha Metallurgical Highlights Strength in New Investor Presentation
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
In February 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources circulated a draft investor presentation highlighting its position as the largest U.S. metallurgical coal producer, accounting for about one-fifth of national output and supported by a diversified co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.