Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.65B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 338.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -14.81%
• EPS Growth: -71.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,040
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Coal
• EPS (TTM): 14.21
• Shares Outstanding: 13,052,684
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 275,198
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 338,330
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $183.00
• Price Target Upside: 44.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a solid financial foundation with effective cost management and low leverage. However, recent profitability challenges and external market conditions pose risks. The company is well-positioned in its industry but faces a cautious outlook due to cost and market pressures.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

AMR reported 4Q adjusted EBITDA of $53M, beating the consensus estimate and driven by lower expenses.

Negative Factors

Global Steel Market

First quarter operations have been pressured by continued weakness in global steel markets and significant challenges from extreme winter weather.

Sales Guidance

Weather and market headwinds have driven sales guidance lower, prompting a reduction in full-year met shipment guidance by 0.5M tons and an increase in cost/ton range.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Alpha Metallurgical Resources makes money primarily through the sale of metallurgical coal, which is an essential component in the steel production process. The company's revenue model is centered on mining operations that extract coal from its reserves, which is then processed and sold to steel manufacturers. Key revenue streams for AMR include long-term supply contracts with major steel producers and spot market sales, depending on market conditions. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and logistical capabilities that facilitate efficient transportation and delivery of coal to its customers. Factors such as coal quality, market demand, and global steel production trends significantly influence AMR's earnings.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alpha Metallurgical Resources shows a strong financial foundation with notable revenue growth in past years and effective cost management. Despite recent declines in profitability and cash flow, the company maintains a low leverage and substantial equity, reflecting financial stability.

Income Statement

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has experienced a fluctuating but generally strong revenue performance, with significant growth in 2021 and a decline in 2022 and 2023. The gross profit margin has improved remarkably over the years, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased in the latest year, reflecting challenges in sustaining profitability at previous levels. The EBIT and EBITDA margins show a similar trend, with a notable drop in EBIT, suggesting increased operational costs or reduced revenue efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a robust balance sheet with a high stockholders' equity and low debt levels, as evidenced by the low debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is strong, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has decreased, implying challenges in maintaining profitability relative to shareholder investments. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and a conservative approach to leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a declining trend in free cash flow over recent years, highlighting potential challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, a decrease in free cash flow to net income ratio suggests increased capital expenditures or reduced cash conversion efficiency. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a healthy cash position.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.96B	3.47B	4.10B	2.26B	1.42B
	Gross Profit
306.60M	969.89M	1.69B	455.55M	-13.92M
	EBIT
227.85M	863.09M	1.58B	357.14M	-93.98M
	EBITDA
413.64M	1.02B	1.73B	511.66M	6.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
187.58M	721.96M	1.45B	288.79M	-241.47M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
481.58M	268.21M	347.96M	81.21M	139.23M
	Total Assets
2.44B	2.41B	2.31B	1.86B	1.68B
	Total Debt
5.78M	14.41M	10.97M	448.55M	582.53M
	Net Debt
-475.79M	-253.79M	-290.93M	367.34M	443.30M
	Total Liabilities
789.21M	832.13M	882.72M	1.31B	1.48B
	Stockholders Equity
1.65B	1.57B	1.43B	546.91M	200.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
381.07M	605.79M	1.32B	91.64M	-24.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
579.92M	851.16M	1.48B	174.94M	129.24M
	Investing Cash Flow
-230.99M	-166.00M	-329.36M	-89.86M	-209.97M
	Financing Cash Flow
-128.90M	-656.43M	-981.87M	-147.04M	-22.38M

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 126.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 126.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.74, below the 50-day MA of 128.04, and below the 200-day MA of 198.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMR.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARLP	79 Outperform	$3.49B	12.71	14.76%	10.31%	-8.53%	-53.30%
BTU	76 Outperform	$1.56B	4.74	10.41%	2.34%	-14.50%	-46.36%
NRP	74 Outperform	$1.35B	9.08	32.48%	2.91%	-16.56%	-24.95%
AMR	73 Outperform	$1.65B	8.91	11.64%	0.36%	-14.81%	-71.49%
METC	68 Neutral	$527.33M	47.94	3.06%	4.14%	-3.93%	-88.36%
HCC	67 Neutral	$2.49B	9.90	5.20%	0.68%	-9.10%	-47.93%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.95B	-1.37	-21.20%	3.73%	0.84%	-29.84%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Corporate Events

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Leads in U.S. Coal Production

In 2024, Alpha Metallurgical Resources sold 17.1 million tons of coal and achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $408 million, solidifying its position as the top U.S. producer of metallurgical coal. The company emphasizes safety and environmental responsibility, boasting a lower incident rate and numerous awards for safety and environmental compliance. This focus on operational excellence and sustainability is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the global coal market.