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Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIY)
OTHER OTC:BKRIY
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Bank of Ireland Group
(OTC:BKRIY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
â–¼(-3.21% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/10/26
Overall score reflects solid underlying financial performance and a very low P/E that supports upside if earnings hold, balanced against weak technical momentum and financial/cash-flow volatility. Earnings call guidance is a net positive, but execution risk and near-term headwinds temper conviction.
Positive Factors
Dominant Irish franchise
Bank of Ireland's scale in Irish retail and mortgage markets creates durable competitive advantages: a deep deposit base, strong origination flow and large customer footprint support stable NII, cross-sell of wealth/insurance and resilience to localized competition over the medium term.
Improving capital and balance sheet
Material organic capital generation and a healthy CET1 buffer materially strengthen solvency and strategic flexibility. Sustained 250–270bps p.a. generation underpins progressive dividends, buybacks and funding for growth while lowering tail risk from regulatory shocks.
Fee diversification and AUM growth
Growing Wealth & Insurance AUM and rising fee income diversify revenue away from interest spreads. Recurring, asset-linked fees improve earnings stability, support long-term ROE targets and reduce sensitivity to short-term NII swings as AUM and cross‑sell scale.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Highly variable operating and free cash flows complicate forecasting and capital allocation. Episodic negative cash flow reduces confidence in sustaining distributions and funding investments without relying on timing or one‑off items, increasing execution and liquidity risk.
Large one-off charges & presentational changes
Significant non-core and restructuring charges compress reported operating profit and distort comparability. Moving restructuring above the line raises recurring reported costs, making it harder to judge run‑rate profitability until efficiency targets are clearly realized.
Regulatory capital drag & constraints
IRB scalers and related RWA increases materially reduce regulatory capital headroom, constraining distribution flexibility and growth unless offset by higher capital generation. Reliance on mitigation or approvals creates execution and timing risk for strategic plans.
Bank of Ireland Group (BKRIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.26B
Dividend Yield2.44%
Average Volume (3M)16.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-16.04%
EPS Growth-18.55%
CountryUS
Employees11,188
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding952,027,470
10 Day Avg. Volume1,411
30 Day Avg. Volume16,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.56
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)2.82
P/FCF Ratio4.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.75
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Bank of Ireland Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBank of Ireland Group plc provides various banking and financial products and services. The company operates through Retail Ireland, Wealth and Insurance, Retail UK, and Corporate and Treasury segments. It provides current and savings accounts, and business deposits and accounts; personal, car, home improvement, graduate, and student loans, as well as overdrafts; and business and farming loans, BREXIT loans, invoice finance, hire purchase, and leasing services. The company also offers international payments and credit cards; protection overview, mortgage protection, life cover, specified illness cover, income protection, protection for individuals, and protection for families; pensions and investments, foreign exchange, and treasury deposits and services; personal products; private banking services; and leveraged acquisition and property finance. In addition, it provides home, car, travel, and life insurance products. Bank of Ireland Group plc was founded in 1783 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneyBank of Ireland Group primarily makes money from net interest income, earned on the spread between interest received on interest-earning assets (such as residential and commercial loans, mortgages, and liquid investment securities) and interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities (such as customer deposits and wholesale funding). A second major source is non-interest income, which includes fees and commissions from banking services (for example, account and transaction-related fees, card and payment fees, and fees linked to lending origination/servicing and other customer services), as well as income from insurance distribution and other bancassurance-related activities where the group earns commissions and related income for arranging or distributing insurance products. The group can also generate income from treasury and markets-related activities (such as gains/losses and income associated with managing liquidity, funding, and interest-rate/foreign-exchange risk), subject to market conditions. Like other banks, profitability is influenced by credit performance (impairment charges on loans), funding costs and deposit mix, interest-rate environment, regulatory capital and liquidity requirements, and operating expenses.
Bank of Ireland Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive and growth-oriented strategic plan centered on a dominant Irish franchise, strong balance sheet momentum, upgraded NII trajectory, robust AUM growth and ambitious efficiency targets. Management balanced growth with prudence (raising CET1 guidance to ~14.5%) and disclosed large one-off charges (EUR 430m non-core, EUR 153m restructuring) and some near-term headwinds (FX, rate moves, deleveraging impacts, IRB scalers, interchange changes). Execution risk is concentrated on realizing EUR 250m of efficiencies, integrating digital/AI investments and recouping capital impacts from IRB scalers. Overall, the positives around earnings growth, capital generation and strategic clarity outweigh the disclosed lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Irish Franchise and Market Position
Unrivaled position across Mortgages, Everyday Banking, Corporate & Commercial Lending and Wealth & Insurance in Ireland; >40% share of new mortgage lending for the third year running; 2.2 million Irish retail customers and ~150,000 affluent customers to target cross-sell.
Balance Sheet Growth in 2025
Irish loan and deposit books each grew 6% in 2025, supporting momentum in net interest income and franchise expansion.
Wealth AUM Record and Growth
Wealth & Insurance assets under management reached an all-time high (EUR 60bn reported) with AUM up 9% in 2025 and an ambition to grow to >EUR 75bn by 2028 and EUR 100bn by 2030; Wealth & Insurance fee income up 12% and now accounts for nearly half of total fee income.
Upgraded Net Interest Income (NII) Guidance
NII expected ≈ EUR 3.4bn in 2026 (above prior high-3.3s expectation), > EUR 3.6bn in 2027 and > EUR 3.85bn in 2028 with potential upside (management sees potential to reach EUR 4.0bn after 2028).
Capital Generation and Returns
Organic capital generation of 270 basis points in 2025 (total 920bps / ~EUR 5bn over the cycle); reported CET1 15.1% after distributions; guidance to operate at ~14.5% CET1 through the new strategic cycle; target statutory ROTE >16% by 2028 (an increase of >500bps).
Shareholder Distributions
Total distributions for 2025 of EUR 1.2bn (100% payout of earnings): progressive dividend EUR 0.70 per share (up 11%) plus EUR 530m approved buyback; EUR 3.6bn returned to shareholders over the last cycle.
Fee Income and Diversification
Group total fee income rose 7% in 2025; Wealth & Insurance fee income +12%; management expects ~4% fee income growth in 2026 and continued fee contribution from AUM growth (AUM CAGR ~10% targeted).
Structural Hedge Supporting NII Trajectory
Average yield on structural hedge rose 16 bps to 1.89% in 2025 with an exit yield of 1.98%; management cites the hedge as a material positive driver (gross tailwind ~EUR 0.5bn over the next 3 years) and expects fixed leg income to rise ~10% in 2026.
Improving Asset Quality
Impairment charge EUR 193m in 2025 (23 bps cost of risk), with net loan loss experience and portfolio activity of EUR 65m and H2 net writebacks; NPE ratio improved to 2.2% (down from prior levels); guidance for cost of risk in low-to-mid-20 bps.
Cost Discipline and Efficiency Program
Operating expenses rose 3% in 2025 (in line with guidance) with efficiencies equivalent to ~2% of cost base delivered; management targets ~EUR 250m of cost reductions over the plan, stable total costs at ~EUR 2.2bn and a mid-40s cost-to-income ratio by 2028 (≈6 percentage point improvement versus 2025).
Digital & AI-Driven Productivity Gains
Investment in digital platforms and AI is delivering tangible benefits: contact centre call transfers reduced by >40%, AI processed >1 billion card transactions for fraud prevention; ~20% of targeted EUR 250m efficiency savings expected from AI initiatives.
Negative Updates
Large Non-Core and Restructuring Charges
Non-core charge of EUR 430m in 2025 (majority relates to U.K. Motor Finance) and restructuring costs of EUR 153m; from 2026 restructuring costs will be presented above the line, impacting reported operating results.
FX and International Headwinds
FX was a headwind in 2025 and international corporate lending contracted as planned; management expects planned run‑down of U.S. acquisition finance book to drag NII (~EUR 70m impact over 3 years, ~EUR 30m in 2026).
Rate and Deleveraging Headwinds to 2026 NII
Lower interest rates versus 2025 (ECB/BOE down ~25 bps) expected to be an approximate EUR 110m headwind in 2026; deleveraging portfolios contribute further NII drag (combined headwinds ≈ EUR 200m offset by balance sheet growth and hedge rollovers).
Capital Constraints and Investor Expectations
Net organic capital generation guided to ~EUR 3.7bn over the plan (management highlighted ~260 bps p.a.), below some market consensus (~EUR 4.2bn), and CET1 guidance raised to ~14.5% (more conservative than some expected), producing debate around distribution quantum and signaling.
IRB Model Scalers Impact on Capital
IRB model scalers consumed ~40 basis points of CET1 (related to ~EUR 2.7bn RWA pending approvals), representing an incremental capital drag (management expects at least partial mitigation over time).
Fee Income Headwinds
Fee income guidance reduced to ~4% CAGR (vs prior ~5% expectations) partly due to modest one-off benefits in 2025 Life business and a forecasted interchange change reducing Retail Ireland fee income by ~EUR 15m pa from 2027.
Inflationary and Wage Pressure on Costs
Operating expenses rose as staff and other costs increased due to wage inflation in a competitive Irish labour market; although efficiencies offset some, ongoing investments push near-term costs higher and require execution to realize savings.
Competitive Environment in Ireland
Management acknowledges ~20 market players (traditional and FinTech) and modestly assumed some market share going to new entrants; increased competition could pressure spreads and new business pricing.
Regulatory / Prudential Buffers and DTA Utilization
Management expects to use Deferred Tax Assets (DTAs) by mid-2028, tempering TNAV growth (TNAV growth expected ~1–2% p.a.) and the bank runs with a ~300 bps buffer above minimum requirements—constraining flexibility at the margin.
One-off and Presentational Changes Affecting Comparability
Non-core charges, restructuring costs being moved above the line from 2026 and one-off life business items in 2025 complicate year-on-year comparability and create some near-term volatility in reported metrics.
Company Guidance
The management provided detailed three‑year guidance: they expect income to grow at a CAGR of >4% to >€4.75bn by 2028, NII to rise to ~€3.4bn in 2026 (above the high €3.3s), >€3.6bn in 2027 and >€3.85bn in 2028 (with potential to reach ~€4.0bn after 2028), fee income to grow ~4% p.a. (W&I fee income up 12% in 2025 and W&I now ≈50% of fees), AUM to grow ~10% p.a. from €60bn to >€75bn by 2028 (€100bn target by 2030), loans ~4% p.a. and deposits ~3% p.a. (Irish loans/deposits both +6% in 2025; Irish mortgage book ~5% p.a. and >40% share of new lending), total costs broadly stable at ~€2.2bn with underlying operating expense growth ~2% in 2026 and EUR250m of identified efficiencies (targeting mid‑40s cost/income by 2028, ~6pp improvement from 52%), staff down ~3% p.a., impairment/cost of risk 23bps in 2025 (EUR193m) and guided to low‑ to mid‑20bps, NPE 2.2% (end 2025), capital generation 270bps in 2025 and expected ~250–260bps p.a. (net organic cap gen ≈€3.7bn over the plan), reported CET1 15.1% after €1.2bn distributions, new CET1 guidance ~14.5% (target operating level), distributions for 2025 €1.2bn (100% payout; DPS €0.70, +11%, plus €530m buyback) with a progressive dividend and a ~50% payout target over the cycle, and structural hedge tailwinds (average hedge yield up to 1.89% in 2025, exit 1.98%; fixed‑leg income +10% in 2026; gross hedge benefit ≈€0.5bn over three years).Bank of Ireland Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability is solid with a strong 2025 rebound (net income ~$1.2B; revenue +46%) and leverage improving meaningfully versus earlier years. The main drag is volatility in revenue/operating results and especially cash flows (materially negative in 2023 despite strong 2024–2025), which raises forecasting risk.Income Statement
Earnings power is solid, with strong profitability in recent years (net income ~$1.2B in 2025 vs. losses in 2020). Revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 (+46%), but the top line has been volatile (notably 2024 down slightly and 2023 much higher), which reduces predictability. Profitability remains healthy overall, though operating profit levels have also fluctuated year to year.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Balance sheet looks generally stable for a regional bank: equity is sizeable (~$12.9B in 2025) and has held relatively steady while assets have grown modestly. Leverage has improved versus earlier years (debt-to-equity moved down from ~2.1x in 2021 to below 1.0x in 2024), which is a clear positive. That said, total debt is still large (~$10.5B in 2025), and returns on equity have been good but not consistently rising, pointing to some cyclicality in performance.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a mixed picture. Operating and free cash flow were strong in 2024–2025 (FCF ~$3.5B in 2025), but cash flows have been highly volatile, including materially negative operating/free cash flow in 2023. Free cash flow growth in 2025 is sharply negative (reflecting an unusually strong prior-year base and/or timing swings), which highlights variability and lowers confidence in repeatability despite the recent rebound.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.09B | 4.46B | 7.11B | 2.96B | 3.19B |
| Gross Profit | 4.21B | 4.46B | 4.09B | 2.96B | 3.19B |
| EBITDA | 1.72B | 2.17B | 2.21B | 1.25B | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 1.20B | 1.53B | 1.59B | 850.00M | 1.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 164.80B | 161.81B | 155.71B | 151.32B | 155.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.27B | 33.55B | 31.49B | 38.10B | 32.82B |
| Total Debt | 10.52B | 10.22B | 13.15B | 12.45B | 23.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 151.88B | 148.80B | 143.15B | 139.39B | 143.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.92B | 13.01B | 12.56B | 11.46B | 11.27B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.52B | 2.12B | -4.80B | 3.63B | 19.44B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.99B | 2.64B | -4.39B | 3.73B | 19.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.45B | -557.00M | -960.00M | 4.69B | 842.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.48B | -811.00M | -2.67B | 293.00M |
Bank of Ireland Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
19.63
Price Trends
19.32
Negative
18.69
Negative
16.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.44
Positive
44.85
Neutral
27.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKRIY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.59, above the 50-day MA of 19.32, and above the 200-day MA of 16.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BKRIY.
Bank of Ireland Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $18.38B | 8.44 | 17.70% | 10.29% | -6.79% | 16.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $17.26B | 7.24 | 10.01% | 2.44% | -16.04% | -18.55% | |
67 Neutral | $19.52B | 14.56 | 21.25% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
65 Neutral | $16.32B | 6.51 | 9.31% | 3.71% | -2.90% | 16.10% | |
57 Neutral | $21.12B | 9.97 | 11.15% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
56 Neutral | $14.94B | 12.58 | 21.37% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
BKRIY
Bank of Ireland Group
18.20
5.98
48.92%
BCH
Banco De Chile
38.14
11.65
43.97%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
5.73
1.20
26.49%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
31.07
9.07
41.23%
CIB
Grupo Cibest
68.03
29.51
76.61%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
66.03
32.16
94.95%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.