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Grupo Cibest S.A. (CIB)
NYSE:CIB
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Grupo Cibest
(NYSE:CIB)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$92.00
â–²(15.64% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/27/26
Overall score is driven by strong earnings-call fundamentals and a clear technical uptrend, tempered by weaker cash-flow quality and a revenue growth decline. Dividend yield is supportive, while the P/E limits valuation upside.
Positive Factors
Strong profit margins
Sustained high margins indicate durable operational efficiency and pricing power across core businesses. Strong gross and EBITDA margins give the company flexibility to fund technology investments, absorb cyclical revenue dips, and maintain profitability over the next several quarters without immediate structural changes.
Robust capital ratios and high ROE
Very strong capital buffers provide regulatory resilience and optionality for measured loan growth, dividends, or buybacks. High ROE reflects efficient capital deployment and franchise returns, supporting sustainable shareholder returns and growth initiatives over a multi-quarter horizon.
Healthy loan and deposit franchise
Rapid loan growth and improving low‑cost deposit mix (higher CASA) strengthen net interest margins and funding stability. A growing, sticky deposit base and strong loan origination indicate durable franchise expansion and earnings visibility over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue growth
A sustained contraction in top-line growth undermines the sustainability of earnings and pressures reinvestment capacity. Even with strong margins, persistent revenue declines can erode market share, limit scalability of fixed-cost absorption, and constrain medium-term growth options.
Weak cash conversion
Very poor conversion of accounting profits to cash impairs financial flexibility. Low operating cash relative to net income and collapsing free cash flow raise risks for dividend sustainability, capex funding, and debt servicing, forcing reliance on external financing if trends persist.
Rising costs and NIM pressure
Material administrative cost increases combined with margin compression from falling rates can squeeze profitability over time. Unless cost rises are one‑off, this mix reduces operating leverage, forcing either slower growth, margin tradeoffs, or further efficiency measures over the next several quarters.
Grupo Cibest (CIB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.11B
Dividend Yield10.29%
Average Volume (3M)399.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.9
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-6.79%
EPS Growth16.13%
CountryUS
Employees34,182
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.52
Shares Outstanding112,485,146
10 Day Avg. Volume280,905
30 Day Avg. Volume399,896
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio-20.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.84K
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.00Price Target Upside-18.30% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)8.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.00B
Grupo Cibest Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGrupo Cibest SA operates as an investment holding company. The company is headquartered in Medellin, Columbia.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrupo Cibest generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its core offerings in software development and IT services, which include custom software solutions, cloud computing, and managed IT services. Additionally, the company earns revenue by providing telecommunication infrastructure solutions, including network design and implementation. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and telecommunications companies further enhance its service portfolio and open new markets. Recurring revenue is also a significant factor, coming from maintenance contracts and subscription-based services that ensure a steady income stream.
Grupo Cibest Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: exceptional loan growth, record profits (even on a normalized basis), strong deposit growth with a high CASA mix, robust capital ratios, and conservative cost metrics. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (double-digit loan and earnings growth targets) and outlined strategic initiatives (digital bank) that could add revenue diversification. Key caveats include reliance on one-off items in Q4 (EGP 1.5 billion fee item and EGP 13.1 billion provision reversal), potential gradual NIM pressure as portfolio mix shifts, regulator-dependent treatment of the ECL reversal, and execution risks on international expansion. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Gross loans rose by EGP 177 billion, a 44% increase year-on-year, taking gross loans to EGP 576 billion. 56% of new loans were in local currency and ~50% of the growth was CapEx-driven. Local-currency loan-to-deposit ratio reached an all-time high of 71% (group LDR 52%).
Record Profitability
Reported net profit after tax reached an all-time high of EGP 82.2 billion, up 49% versus 2024. On a normalized basis (after adjusting for the EGP 13.1 billion impairment reversal) profit was EGP 70.6 billion with ROE of 41.5%.
Top-Line and Balance Sheet Expansion
Revenues (top line) grew 19% year-on-year and the balance sheet expanded 19% year-on-year, reflecting genuine growth in core commercial banking activities.
High Capital and Dividend Proposal
Common equity tier capital ratio (CAR) reached 27%. The Board proposed a cash dividend of EGP 6 per share, representing a 30% payout of the distributable portion of 2025 profits.
Improved Funding Mix and Deposits
Total deposits grew 14% (local currency deposits +21%). CASA now comprises 61% of the deposit base, supporting liquidity and helping mitigate margin compression in a falling-rate environment.
NIM Resilience Despite Rate Cuts
Net interest margin was 8.95%, with a contained compression of 53 basis points despite cumulative policy rate cuts of 725 bps during the year, aided by favorable deposit mix and liability management.
Asset Quality and Provisioning Adjustment
NPL ratio remained low at 1.67% with NPL coverage of 358%. The performing-loan coverage ratio is 7.1%. Management implemented a recalibrated ECL model and reversed EGP 13.1 billion of excess provisions to reflect asset quality more accurately.
Operational Efficiency
Cost-to-income ratio remained very low at 15% (management guidance to keep C/I below 25% going forward), indicating strong operational leverage amid revenue growth.
Positive Macroeconomic Backdrop Supporting Growth
Management highlighted macro improvements that supported results: inflation down to 12%, cumulative rate cuts of 725 bps, strengthened EGP (46.47), CBE reserves ~EGP 50 billion, and banking sector NFAs > EGP 20 billion—creating a more business-friendly environment and better interbank liquidity.
Digital Bank Opportunity
CIB has applied for a digital bank license with a target launch before end-2026; management estimates the digital bank could contribute ~10% of group revenues by year 5 and expects significant customer scale (management commentary indicated multi-million customers potential).
2026 Guidance
Management guidance: normalized bottom-line growth of 15–20% above the EGP 70.6 billion baseline; loan growth target 30–35%; deposit growth 15–20% with 50–60% of incremental deposits as CASA; ROE expected to remain above 30%; cost of risk normalized at ~0.5–0.7% (EGP ~1.5–2.0 billion).
Negative Updates
One-Offs and Non-Recurring Items
Q4 included one-off items: a fees & commissions boost of ~EGP 1.5 billion from sale of an asset settled for debt and the EGP 13.1 billion impairment reversal. Management cautioned these are not repeatable and should not be annualized into recurring forecasts.
NIM Pressure from Repricing and Portfolio Mix
Although current NIM compression was contained to 53 bps, management noted structural pressure when shifting from high-yield sovereigns to loans (withholding tax and lower loan pricing relative to historical sovereign yields), implying potential gradual NIM compression as rates decline further.
Uncertainty on Capitalizing ECL Reversal
The EGP 13.1 billion reversed into a special reserve may be eligible for conversion to capital subject to regulator approval; timing and outcome remain uncertain, limiting near-term clarity on available CET1 uplift or higher shareholder distributions.
Volatility in Non-Interest Income Components
Trading income and certain other non-interest items were volatile; management explicitly warned against annualizing Q4 trading income and highlighted that future noninterest income growth should be driven more by fees than by trading one-offs.
Legacy International Investment Oversight
Management cited lessons from their Kenya operation: earlier oversight was insufficient and required more active governance and support. This underscores execution and integration risks for international or M&A initiatives.
Rising Costs and Need for Capital for Growth
Operating expenses are increasing (some decline in other operating expenses was due to accrual timing), and management signaled potential future capital needs to fund expansion/opportunities (possible capital raise in the medium term), which could dilute near-term returns or alter payout plans.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for 2026 targets continued strong, high‑quality growth: a normalized 2025 baseline net income of EGP 70.6 billion with expected bottom‑line growth of 15–20% (to roughly EGP 81–85 billion), loan growth of 30–35% (with CapEx-heavy demand continuing), deposit growth of 15–20% with 50–60% of new deposits expected to be CASA, ROE comfortably above 30% (after 41.5% in 2025), cost‑to‑income below 25%, a normalized cost of risk of c.0.5–0.7% (~EGP 1.5–2.0 billion), gradual NIM compression from the 2025 level of 8.95% (after a 53 bp compression in 2025), a capital adequacy ratio of 27% and a proposed 2025 cash dividend of EGP 6/share (30% payout of distributable profits); management also reiterated plans to launch the digital bank by end‑2026, which they expect to contribute about 10% of group revenues by year five.Grupo Cibest Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: strong profitability (net margin 17.3%, EBITDA margin 26.9%) and a stable balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.66, ROE 17.5%), but pressured by declining revenue growth (-6.7%) and weak cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.008) with sharply lower free cash flow growth.Income Statement
Grupo Cibest's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 6.7%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 58.6% and a net profit margin of 17.3%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 24.5% and 26.9%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency. Despite the revenue decline, profitability metrics remain robust, indicating effective cost management.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 17.5%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 11.3%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial stability with manageable debt levels.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth by 104.6% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.008, indicating potential issues in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also low at 5.8%. These metrics suggest cash flow constraints, which could impact future financial flexibility.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.48T | 42.91T | 45.18T | 32.69T | 21.69T | 21.58T |
| Gross Profit | 24.89T | 22.43T | 21.05T | 20.45T | 14.92T | 8.19T |
| EBITDA | 11.41T | 9.77T | 9.23T | 10.69T | 6.84T | 1.05T |
| Net Income | 7.34T | 6.27T | 6.12T | 6.78T | 4.09T | 275.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.34T | 30.06T | 36.13T | 28.77T | 24.54T | 23.38T |
| Total Debt | 27.87T | 29.91T | 32.56T | 41.17T | 31.46T | 34.36T |
| Total Liabilities | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 10.00T> |
| Stockholders Equity | 42.38T | 43.54T | 38.09T | 39.09T | 32.23T | 26.55T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.29T | -1.61T | 16.74T | 2.80T | 4.42T | 9.70T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.48T | 435.89B | 19.15T | 6.34T | 6.60T | 11.23T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.28T | -559.20B | -159.69B | -4.65T | -650.49B | -7.52T |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.06T | -9.24T | -5.43T | 853.44B | -6.81T | -4.92T |
Grupo Cibest Technical Analysis
Positive
79.56
Price Trends
72.56
Positive
65.45
Positive
55.75
Positive
Market Momentum
1.35
Positive
57.71
Neutral
63.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CIB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.14, above the 50-day MA of 72.56, and above the 200-day MA of 55.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CIB.
Grupo Cibest Risk Analysis
Grupo Cibest disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Cibest reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The Bank is subject to a wide range of cybersecurity incidents. Q4, 2023
Grupo Cibest Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $10.42B | 13.18 | 10.68% | 2.38% | 33.87% | 12.26% | |
74 Outperform | $27.52B | 14.15 | 18.88% | 4.82% | 8.72% | 27.70% | |
72 Outperform | $16.75B | 15.06 | 24.13% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% | |
70 Outperform | $20.11B | 19.93 | 17.06% | 10.29% | -6.79% | 16.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $21.43B | 17.13 | 20.74% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
64 Neutral | $25.28B | 23.60 | 9.34% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% |
* Financial Sector Average
CIB
Grupo Cibest
79.56
40.60
104.21%
BCH
Banco De Chile
43.23
17.93
70.85%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
7.05
2.66
60.67%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
36.12
15.15
72.25%
BAP
Credicorp
350.25
179.02
104.54%
SSB
SouthState Corporation
105.44
9.15
9.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.