Booking Holdings (BKNG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

5,049 Followers

Top Page

Booking Holdings

(NASDAQ:BKNG)

Select Model

Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:

$5,406.00

▲(1.97% Upside)

Booking Holdings' strong earnings performance and strategic advancements in AI and loyalty programs are major positives. However, significant leverage issues, bearish technical indicators, and high valuation pose risks. The company's ability to manage these challenges will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth, surpassing expectations, indicates strong demand and effective execution, enhancing long-term market position.

AI and Technology Advancements

Advancements in AI enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, providing a competitive edge and supporting sustainable growth.

Genius Loyalty Program

The expansion of the Genius loyalty program drives customer retention and repeat bookings, strengthening long-term revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Significant Leverage

High leverage and negative equity pose financial risks, potentially limiting investment capacity and increasing vulnerability to economic shifts.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

Decreasing free cash flow growth could strain financial flexibility, affecting the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties may impact travel demand and operational stability, posing long-term challenges to growth.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$170.18B

Dividend Yield0.72%

Average Volume (3M)282.20K

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.3

Beta (1Y)1.14

Revenue Growth12.96%

EPS Growth3.66%

CountryUS

Employees24,500

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)99.50

Shares Outstanding32,233,814

10 Day Avg. Volume285,749

30 Day Avg. Volume282,197

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.60

Price to Book (P/B)-41.55

Price to Sales (P/S)7.04

P/FCF Ratio21.16

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.79

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.79

Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.33

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6,166.42

Price Target Upside16.31% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering26

EPS Forecast (FY)228.39

Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.69B

Booking Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBooking Holdings Inc. is a global leader in online travel and related services, operating through various well-known brands including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Kayak, and OpenTable. The company provides a comprehensive suite of services, enabling customers to book accommodations, flights, car rentals, and restaurant reservations, catering to both leisure and business travelers. With a strong emphasis on technology and innovation, Booking Holdings connects millions of travelers with a diverse range of travel-related offerings, making it a key player in the digital travel marketplace.

How the Company Makes MoneyBooking Holdings primarily generates revenue through commissions and service fees charged to travel service providers, such as hotels and airlines, for facilitating bookings through its platforms. The company earns a significant portion of its revenue from hotel reservations, where it takes a percentage of the booking price from the property owners. Additionally, it earns income from advertising on its websites and apps, as well as from offering ancillary services like travel insurance and car rentals. Key partnerships with various travel and hospitality companies enhance its offerings and drive additional revenue. The company's scale and global reach allow it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers, further optimizing its revenue generation.

Booking Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Travel Bookings

Travel Bookings
Tracks the total number of travel reservations made, indicating consumer demand and market share within the travel industry.

Chart InsightsBooking Holdings' Merchant segment is driving growth, with a notable upward trajectory since 2023, reflecting strong global demand and strategic advancements in AI and the Connected Trip vision. Despite challenges in the U.S. market, the earnings call highlights robust performance in Europe and Asia, with double-digit growth in room nights and gross bookings. The Agency segment, however, shows a gradual decline, indicating a strategic pivot towards Merchant services. This shift aligns with the company's focus on alternative accommodations and loyalty program success, positioning it well for sustained growth despite geopolitical uncertainties.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Booking Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects strong financial performance and strategic advances, particularly in alternative accommodations and AI-driven initiatives, despite challenges in the U.S. market and geopolitical uncertainties.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Second quarter revenue grew 16% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 28% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS grew 32%.

Positive Room Night and Booking Growth

Room nights reached 309 million, an 8% increase from the previous year, with gross bookings up 13% and revenue up 16%.

Significant Growth in Alternative Accommodations

Alternative accommodation listings increased to 8.4 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, contributing to a 10% growth in room nights for this segment.

Expansion of Genius Loyalty Program

The Genius loyalty program continues to expand, with over 30% of active travelers in higher tiers, contributing significantly to booking frequency and direct bookings.

Connected Trip Vision Progress

Connected Trip transactions grew over 30% year-over-year, supported by strong growth in non-accommodation verticals like flights and attractions, with flight tickets up 44%.

Advancements in AI Integration

Investments in AI capabilities, including enhancements in Priceline's AI assistant Penny and OpenTable's AI Concierge, have improved customer engagement and service efficiencies.

Negative Updates

Challenges in the U.S. Market

The U.S. remains the slowest-growing region with lower ADRs, shorter booking windows, and indications of cautious consumer spending.

Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Uncertainties

There are ongoing challenges due to geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainties, which have impacted June's growth by approximately 1%.

Difficulties in the China Market

Booking Holdings faces challenges in competing in China's domestic market and has adjusted expectations for outbound business from China.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings delivered robust financial results that surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand across its globally diversified business. Room nights grew by 8% year-over-year to 309 million, with notable performance in Europe and Asia, while gross bookings increased by 13% and revenue by 16%, both exceeding guidance. FX favorably impacted growth rates by approximately 4 percentage points. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 28%, reflecting disciplined expense management. The company reported adjusted EPS growth of 32% year-over-year. Strategic initiatives such as expanding alternative accommodations, with 8.4 million listings, and accelerating the Connected Trip vision contributed to a 10% growth in alternative accommodation room nights and over 30% growth in Connected Trip transactions. The Genius loyalty program now accounts for over 30% of active travelers. Additionally, non-accommodation verticals like flight tickets and attraction tickets saw significant growth, with flights up 44% and attractions more than doubling year-over-year. Looking ahead, the company expects room night growth of 3.5% to 5.5% in the third quarter, with gross bookings projected to rise between 8% and 10%. For the full year, guidance was raised, with expectations of low double-digit growth in gross bookings and revenue, and mid-teens growth in adjusted EBITDA.

Booking Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Booking Holdings shows strong revenue growth and profitability, with high margins and efficient operations. However, significant leverage and negative equity on the balance sheet pose financial stability risks. Cash flow generation is solid, but recent declines in free cash flow growth are concerning.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Booking Holdings has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 4.05% and a consistent upward trajectory over the past years. The company maintains high profitability with a gross profit margin of 100% and a solid net profit margin of 19.37% TTM. However, there is a slight decline in net profit margin compared to the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 32.29% and 35.14% respectively, indicating efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage concerns, with a negative stockholders' equity leading to a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -3.70 TTM. This indicates potential financial instability. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. Despite these issues, the company has maintained a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 10.01% TTM, which could be a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.53, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.96, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.04B	23.74B	21.36B	17.09B	10.96B	6.80B
Gross Profit	26.04B	23.74B	21.36B	17.09B	10.96B	6.80B
EBITDA	9.15B	9.34B	7.04B	4.92B	2.40B	1.56B
Net Income	5.04B	5.88B	4.29B	3.06B	1.17B	59.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	28.75B	27.71B	24.34B	25.36B	23.64B	21.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.51B	16.16B	12.68B	12.43B	11.15B	11.06B
Total Debt	17.53B	17.08B	14.78B	13.04B	11.28B	12.38B
Total Liabilities	33.49B	31.73B	27.09B	22.58B	17.46B	16.98B
Stockholders Equity	-4.74B	-4.02B	-2.74B	2.78B	6.18B	4.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.31B	7.89B	7.00B	6.19B	2.52B	-201.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.64B	8.32B	7.34B	6.55B	2.82B	85.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-317.00M	129.00M	1.49B	-518.00M	-998.00M	2.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-8.11B	-4.20B	-8.91B	-4.90B	-1.24B	1.53B

Booking Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price5301.64

Price Trends

50DMA

5062.71

Positive

100DMA

5288.35

Positive

200DMA

5187.09

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

66.05

Negative

RSI

63.12

Neutral

STOCH

83.30

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKNG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5301.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4984.22, above the 50-day MA of 5062.71, and above the 200-day MA of 5187.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 66.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKNG.

Booking Holdings Risk Analysis

Booking Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Booking Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Booking Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPE	80 Outperform	$33.58B	26.22	104.40%	0.58%	7.29%	36.51%
ABNB	71 Outperform	$77.18B	30.18	30.78%	―	10.56%	47.16%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$46.37B	11.37	19.96%	0.40%	17.34%	91.51%
TRIP	67 Neutral	$1.83B	24.29	9.57%	―	4.24%	159.81%
MMYT	65 Neutral	$7.24B	118.06	16.66%	―	14.55%	-68.46%
BKNG	63 Neutral	$170.18B	34.32	―	0.72%	12.96%	3.66%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,301.64

112.59

2.17%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

70.80

-1.42

-1.97%

EXPE

Expedia

274.21

92.68

51.05%

MMYT

Makemytrip

82.60

-34.57

-29.50%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

15.17

1.40

10.17%

ABNB

Airbnb

128.39

-2.56

-1.95%

Booking Holdings Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing

Booking Holdings Sells €1.5 Billion in Senior Notes

Neutral

Nov 7, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Booking Holdings Inc. executed the sale of €1.5 billion in Senior Notes, split equally between 3.000% Senior Notes due 2030 and 3.625% Senior Notes due 2035. These notes are general senior unsecured obligations and rank equally with other senior unsecured obligations of the company. The issuance is part of a registered public offering, with interest payments beginning in 2026, and includes options for early redemption under specific conditions. The move is likely aimed at strengthening the company’s financial position and providing flexibility in managing its debt obligations.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Booking Holdings Updates By-Laws for Better Governance

Neutral

Oct 17, 2025

On October 16, 2025, Booking Holdings Inc.’s Board of Directors approved amendments to the company’s By-Laws, which include changes to the threshold for calling a special meeting and revisions to the advance notice provision. These amendments are expected to streamline board operations and enhance governance, potentially impacting the company’s decision-making processes and stakeholder engagement.

Executive/Board Changes

Booking Holdings Announces CAO Retirement Plan

Neutral

Sep 19, 2025

On September 17, 2025, Booking Holdings Inc. announced that Susana D’Emic, the Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, will retire at the end of March 2027. She will transition to the role of Senior Vice President of Finance ahead of her retirement, with a successor expected to be hired in 2026.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025