Booking Holdings (BKNG) AI Stock Analysis

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Booking Holdings

(NASDAQ:BKNG)

77Outperform

Booking Holdings' robust revenue growth and strong operational performance are key strengths, despite high debt levels and a negative equity position. Positive technical indicators and optimistic earnings call results further support the stock's potential. Valuation remains moderate, providing a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency and Future Gains

BKNG is already working on a $400-450M cost efficiency plan, which could lead to continued and possibly accelerated share gains in a recession.

Earnings and Financial Performance

Booking delivered a 28% EBITDA beat and 42% EPS beat.

Market Position and Strategy

BKNG remains best-positioned in our coverage with significantly higher margins compared to its peers.

Negative Factors

Demand and Market Trends

Demand patterns have modestly changed - with demand into the US dropping and length of stay for US travelers declining.

Guidance and Market Expectations

The stock is tracking down 4% pre-market due to conservative guidance history.

Market Valuation and Pricing

Booking’s stock has held up far better than other lodging stocks YTD and looks relatively fully valued.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$165.93B

Dividend Yield0.7%

Average Volume (3M)301.25K

Price to Earnings (P/E)29.5

Beta (1Y)1.12

Revenue Growth9.47%

EPS Growth20.70%

CountryUS

Employees24,057

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)173.02

Shares Outstanding32,540,337

10 Day Avg. Volume242,416

30 Day Avg. Volume301,250

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.63

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.04

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5,473.44

Price Target Upside7.29% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering34

Booking Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBooking Holdings Inc. is a leading provider of online travel and related services, operating globally across numerous travel sectors. With a portfolio of brands including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, and Kayak, the company offers a wide range of services such as hotel reservations, car rentals, airline ticketing, and vacation packages. Booking Holdings leverages advanced technology to connect travelers with accommodations, transportation options, and travel experiences.

How the Company Makes MoneyBooking Holdings primarily generates revenue through the commissions and transaction fees charged to travel service providers, such as hotels, airlines, and car rental companies, for bookings made through its platforms. The company operates a merchant model where it acts as an intermediary, collecting payment from customers and remitting it to service providers, often at a margin. Additionally, Booking Holdings benefits from advertising revenue on its websites and apps, as well as from partnerships with other travel-related businesses. Key revenue streams include accommodation reservations, which form the bulk of its income, followed by transportation services and advertising sales. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships with various travel industry stakeholders, enhancing its market presence and customer reach.

Booking Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Travel Bookings

Travel Bookings
Tracks the volume of travel reservations made through the platform, reflecting consumer travel trends and the company’s market share in the online travel industry.

Chart InsightsBooking Holdings' Merchant segment is experiencing robust growth, significantly outpacing the Agency segment. This aligns with the earnings call highlighting a 59% share of total gross bookings for the Merchant segment, driven by strategic advancements in AI and the Genius loyalty program. Despite challenges like calendar shifts and transformation costs, the company maintains a positive outlook with expected growth in gross bookings and revenue. The focus on Merchant bookings suggests a strategic pivot that could enhance profitability and market share in the evolving travel landscape.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Booking Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Booking Holdings exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability, as reflected in the income statement with a score of 85. However, the balance sheet's negative equity is a significant concern, suggesting potential financial risk, scoring 60. The cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation, scoring 78, supporting operational stability. Overall, the company is on a positive growth path but must address balance sheet weaknesses to ensure long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Booking Holdings has shown strong revenue growth, with a 10.96% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is healthy at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved to 24.77% in 2024, up from 20.07% in 2023, suggesting enhanced profitability. The EBIT margin of 31.82% and EBITDA margin of 27.75% highlight robust operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet presents a mixed picture with a concerning negative stockholders' equity of -$4.02 billion, indicating potential financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but the company has managed to reduce net debt, showing improved leverage management. With total assets at $27.71 billion and high total liabilities, the equity ratio is negative, stressing the need for careful financial monitoring.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strong operating cash flow, increasing to $8.32 billion in 2024 from $7.34 billion in 2023, indicating good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow also improved to $7.89 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.41, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.34, both showing solid cash conversion efficiency. The company demonstrates strong cash management despite significant financing outflows.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
23.74B	21.36B	17.09B	10.96B	6.80B
	Gross Profit
23.74B	21.36B	16.48B	10.36B	6.15B
	EBIT
7.55B	5.83B	5.10B	1.81B	2.13B
	EBITDA
6.59B	7.04B	4.92B	2.40B	1.56B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
5.88B	4.29B	3.06B	1.17B	59.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
16.16B	12.68B	12.40B	11.15B	11.06B
	Total Assets
27.71B	24.34B	25.36B	23.64B	21.87B
	Total Debt
17.08B	15.00B	13.04B	11.28B	12.38B
	Net Debt
917.00M	2.68B	816.00M	150.00M	1.82B
	Total Liabilities
31.73B	27.09B	22.58B	17.46B	16.98B
	Stockholders Equity
-4.02B	-2.74B	2.78B	6.18B	4.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
7.89B	7.00B	6.19B	2.52B	-201.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
8.32B	7.34B	6.55B	2.82B	85.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
129.00M	1.49B	-518.00M	-998.00M	2.64B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.20B	-8.91B	-4.90B	-1.24B	1.53B

Booking Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price5101.43

Price Trends

50DMA

4681.15

Positive

100DMA

4804.81

Positive

200DMA

4498.30

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

104.63

Negative

RSI

66.88

Neutral

STOCH

95.53

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKNG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5101.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4627.87, above the 50-day MA of 4681.15, and above the 200-day MA of 4498.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 104.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKNG.

Booking Holdings Risk Analysis

Booking Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Booking Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Booking Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKNG	77 Outperform	$165.93B	29.53	-146.32%	0.70%	9.47%	20.70%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$10.75B	45.97	23.09%	―	28.51%	367.34%
ABNB	74 Outperform	$76.89B	29.49	31.95%	―	11.95%	-44.02%
EXPE	71 Outperform	$20.02B	17.54	79.84%	0.25%	6.64%	69.85%
TCOM	69 Neutral	$39.29B	17.24	12.91%	0.47%	18.12%	69.44%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.55B	11.72	3.07%	4.01%	2.66%	-21.27%
TRIP	60 Neutral	$1.78B	769.09	0.55%	―	2.63%	-58.77%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BKNG

Booking Holdings

5,101.43

1,553.68

43.79%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR

59.38

6.32

11.91%

EXPE

Expedia

157.96

42.87

37.25%

MMYT

Makemytrip

107.54

35.15

48.56%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

12.69

-13.10

-50.79%

ABNB

Airbnb

124.01

-35.70

-22.35%

Booking Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 3.92%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial results with record room nights and significant growth in various segments such as alternative accommodations and air tickets. However, concerns about geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions and specific market weaknesses, particularly in the US, were acknowledged. Overall, the positive achievements and growth metrics outweigh the challenges, pointing to a solid performance and promising strategy for future growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Room Nights and Revenue Growth

Booking Holdings reported a record 319 million room nights, marking the first time exceeding 300 million in a single quarter. First quarter revenue grew by 8% year-over-year to $4.8 billion.

Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Earnings Growth

Adjusted EBITDA rose by 21% year-over-year to approximately $1.1 billion, and adjusted earnings per share increased by 22% year-over-year.

Alternative Accommodations and Genius Program Expansion

Alternative accommodations room nights grew 12% in Q1, and Genius loyalty program reached over 30% of active travelers in higher tiers.

Air Ticket and Attractions Growth

Booking Holdings saw a 45% year-over-year increase in air ticket bookings and a 92% increase in attractions ticket sales.

AI and Connected Trip Vision Advancements

Continued integration and testing of AI technologies across platforms with a 35% year-over-year growth in Connected Trip transactions.

Negative Updates

Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Concerns

Acknowledgement of rising geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns impacting global leisure travel demand.

US Market Weakness

Noted moderation in trends for inbound travel to the US and a decrease in length of stay within the US.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings reported impressive financial performance, with room nights reaching 319 million, the highest ever for a single quarter, representing a year-over-year growth of over 7%. The company's revenue climbed to $4.8 billion, marking an 8% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose by 21% to approximately $1.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share saw a 22% increase. The company also highlighted robust growth in its alternative accommodations segment, with listings increasing by 9% to about 8.1 million and room night growth of 12%. Furthermore, the Connected Trip transactions grew by 35%, and air ticket sales soared by 45%, demonstrating strong performance across various verticals. Despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, Booking Holdings remains confident in its long-term strategy, leveraging its global diversification and strong cash flow to navigate potential challenges.

Booking Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Wei Hopeman Announces Retirement from Booking Holdings

Neutral

Apr 22, 2025

Wei Hopeman has announced her retirement from Booking Holdings Inc.’s Board of Directors, effective at the company’s Annual Meeting in June 2025. The company and its Board have expressed their gratitude for her dedicated service.

Spark’s Take on BKNG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BKNG is a Outperform.

Booking Holdings demonstrates strong financial growth and profitability, supported by positive earnings call guidance. However, the negative equity on the balance sheet is a concern, and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach with potential downward price momentum. Valuation metrics indicate fair market pricing. Overall, the stock presents a balanced risk-reward scenario, with strengths in operational efficiency and strategic initiatives offset by financial structure risks.

To see Spark’s full report on BKNG stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.