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Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
NASDAQ:ABNB
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Airbnb
(NASDAQ:ABNB)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$130.00
▼(-5.09% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
ABNB scores well overall due to strong financial performance (high margins and rising free cash flow) and constructive earnings-call outlook (accelerating 2026 growth with stable margins and continued buybacks). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and a valuation that remains somewhat premium with no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds ongoing buybacks, product investment, and downturn buffers. A multi-billion FCF stream supports capital returns and reinvestment without issuing equity or raising leverage, strengthening long-term resilience.
High and stable margins
Asset-light marketplace economics and pricing power have produced persistently high gross and robust operating margins. These margin characteristics underpin sustainable profitability, enabling reinvestment in supply quality and tech while insulating core cash generation from modest volume swings.
Product-led growth and AI efficiency
Durable growth levers come from product improvements that lift conversion and ADR plus AI automation that cuts support costs and scales service. Combined, these raise revenue per booking and lower operating cost per transaction, improving long-term unit economics and competitive moat.
Negative Factors
Volatile revenue growth profile
Marked variability in reported growth creates forecasting uncertainty and suggests results are sensitive to timing, FX and base effects. That volatility complicates capital allocation, investor expectations and makes sustainability of high growth dependent on continued product and geographic execution.
Cancellation risk from Pay-Later
A structurally higher cancellation rate from pay-later products erodes realized GBV and revenue conversion and can raise bad-debt and working-capital needs. If persistent, these dynamics weaken unit economics and require tighter underwriting or pricing adjustments that could reduce demand.
Regional execution variability (APAC)
Uneven APAC performance highlights structural execution and adoption gaps. Scaling in large, diverse markets requires sustained investment and tailored product/regulatory strategies; moderation there limits near-term addressable growth and raises dependency on mature markets for overall expansion.
Airbnb (ABNB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.7
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth10.56%
EPS Growth47.16%
CountryUS
Employees7,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding423,573,270
10 Day Avg. Volume6,298,383
30 Day Avg. Volume4,886,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-15.43
Price to Book (P/B)10.15
Price to Sales (P/S)6.80
P/FCF Ratio17.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$147.20Price Target Upside7.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)4.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.70B
Airbnb Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAirbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAirbnb generates revenue primarily through service fees charged to both guests and hosts. For guests, a service fee is typically applied to each booking, which can range from 5% to 15% of the booking subtotal. Hosts are also charged a percentage of the booking amount, usually around 3%, for the use of the platform and its services. Additionally, Airbnb has introduced other revenue streams, such as Airbnb Experiences, which allow hosts to offer activities and tours, and Airbnb Plus, a selection of verified listings that offer higher quality and assurance. Strategic partnerships with local tourism boards and businesses further enhance Airbnb's offerings and can drive additional bookings, contributing to its overall earnings.
Airbnb Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Booking Value
Reflects the total dollar amount of all bookings on the platform, indicating the overall demand and popularity of Airbnb's offerings and its ability to capture market share in the travel industry.
Reflects the total dollar amount of all bookings on the platform, indicating the overall demand and popularity of Airbnb's offerings and its ability to capture market share in the travel industry.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAirbnb Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized stronger momentum across product, pricing and supply initiatives that drove double-digit revenue and GBV growth in Q4, solid profitability and exceptional free cash flow generation. Key product moves (Reserve Now, Pay Later; simplified fees; Project Hawaii) and AI support for customer service and engineering were highlighted as durable growth levers. Near-term headwinds include a modest rise in cancellations from the new pay-later product, regional variability (APAC moderation), a one-time tax hit in Q4, and the fact that hotel inventory remains a small portion of nights today. Management provided confident 2026 guidance (Q1 revenue growth 14%–16%, full-year target of low double-digit acceleration) and reiterated stable margins, buybacks and balance sheet strength. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Gross Booking Value Growth
Q4 revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $2.8 billion and gross booking value (GBV) grew 16% year-over-year to $20.4 billion — Airbnb's strongest quarter of growth in over two years.
Nights and Seats Booked Acceleration
Nights and seats booked increased 10% year-over-year in Q4 (the strongest quarter of the year), with strength across regions and longer lead times driven by product changes.
Profitability and Cash Generation
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $786 million, a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin, exceeding guidance; Q4 free cash flow was $521 million and full-year 2025 free cash flow was $4.6 billion (38% margin). Airbnb has generated nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since IPO.
Product-Led Growth Initiatives (Project Hawaii & Pricing)
Project Hawaii and pricing changes (total price upfront, simplified fees, flexible cancellations) materially lifted conversion; CFO estimates these three features delivered ~200 basis points of nights/seats growth and ~300 basis points of GBV growth in Q4. Reserve Now, Pay Later drove booking acceleration, longer lead times and mix shift toward larger homes, contributing to ADR expansion.
Supply Quality and Expansion Wins
Airbnb removed over 0.5 million low-quality listings, while 'guest favorites' listings grew 30% in 2025 and comprised nearly half of Q4 bookings; Brazil moved from a top-10 to a top-5 market and was the second largest contributor to first-time bookers in Q4.
AI Deployment and Operational Efficiency
Custom AI agent is resolving ~1/3 of support issues in North America with faster resolution times and plans for global roll-out; AI adoption is increasing engineer productivity and customer-service efficiency, supported by hiring of CTO Ahmad Al-Dahle.
Positive 2026 Outlook and Q1 Guidance
Management expects revenue growth to accelerate to at least low double digits in 2026 with stable adjusted EBITDA margins; Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $2.59B–$2.63B implies 14%–16% YoY growth and GBV growth in the low teens (includes ~3 point FX tailwind).
Share Repurchases and Strong Balance Sheet
Airbnb repurchased $1.1 billion of common stock in Q4 (Q4 repurchases up from $857 million in Q3) and $3.8 billion in 2025, using >80% of free cash flow; corporate cash and investments totaled ~$11 billion at the end of Q4 (plus ~$7 billion funds held on behalf of others).
Negative Updates
Net Income Impacted by One-Time Tax
Q4 net income was $341 million and was negatively impacted by approximately $90 million of one-time non-income tax items, contributing to a 2025 effective tax rate of ~20% (expected to fall to mid‑high teens in 2026 due to new legislation).
Cancellation Risk from Reserve Now, Pay Later
Reserve Now, Pay Later cohorts have higher cancellation rates versus the pre-product baseline; management reports an aggregate nominal cancellation increase of roughly 1 percentage point (e.g., ~16% to ~17%), though cohorts were tested and net benefit was positive in launch segments.
Regional Variability — APAC Moderation
Asia Pacific growth moderated to mid‑teens in Q4 (down from stronger recent quarters) — APAC remains a growth opportunity but with varying penetration (strong in Australia, nascent in India/SE Asia/Korea).
Hotels Still Small But Growing
Hotel inventory is a single‑digit percent of total nights booked (though growing nearly twice the platform rate); management says hotels will take time to scale enough to materially move overall revenue growth this year.
FX Tailwind is Temporary
Q1 guidance includes ~3 percentage points of FX tailwind; management notes FX tailwinds will fade as the year progresses, so some near-term growth acceleration is timing-related.
No Material AI Revenue Benefit Baked into Guidance
While AI pilots (AI search, support automation) are progressing, management stated there is nothing material from AI included in the 2026 outlook — benefits are expected but not assumed in guidance.
Company Guidance
Airbnb guided Q1 2026 revenue of $2.59–$2.63 billion, up 14–16% year‑over‑year, with gross booking value expected to rise in the low‑teens, nights and seats booked up in the high‑single‑digits and a moderate ADR increase (Q1 includes an approximate 3‑point FX tailwind after hedging); they expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin to be roughly flat year‑over‑year and reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue growth accelerating to at least low double‑digits with adjusted EBITDA margin stable year‑over‑year, while noting FX tailwinds should fade as the year progresses, Easter timing will add ~50 bps to Q1 (and subtract ~50 bps from Q2), and no material AI upside is baked into the outlook.Airbnb Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and cash generation support a high score: gross margins remain very high (~82–83%), operating and net margins are solid (~21% in 2025), and free cash flow is strong and rising (~$4.6B in 2025) with good earnings quality. The main offsets are a less consistent growth profile (including an unusually high 2025 growth figure in the data) and some variability in net margin, plus a watch item around operating cash flow coverage (~0.34–0.44).Income Statement
Airbnb shows strong, improving profitability with consistently high gross margins (~82–83%) and solid operating margins around ~21% in 2025. Revenue has scaled materially since 2020, though growth normalized in 2024 (~12%) and appears unusually high in 2025 (shown as ~250%), which suggests more volatility in the growth trajectory than a straight-line trend. Net margins remain healthy (~21% in 2025), but are below 2024 levels, indicating some pressure on bottom-line efficiency despite stable operating profitability.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity improved to ~0.24 in 2025 from ~0.51 in 2021, alongside growing equity and assets. Returns on equity are strong (~31% in 2025), reflecting effective profitability against the capital base. The key weakness is that historical profitability was volatile (losses in 2020–2021), which matters for assessing durability through a full cycle even though current leverage is manageable.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow and free cash flow are both strong and rising (free cash flow ~$4.6B in 2025 vs. ~$3.4B in 2022). Free cash flow tracks net income closely (about 1.0x in recent years), indicating earnings quality is solid. A watch item is that the provided “operating cash flow coverage” metric sits in the ~0.34–0.44 range recently (and was negative in 2020), implying cash flow strength should still be monitored relative to obligations even though absolute cash generation is robust.88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.24B | 11.10B | 9.92B | 8.40B | 5.99B |
| Gross Profit | 10.15B | 9.22B | 8.21B | 6.90B | 4.84B |
| EBITDA | 2.54B | 2.62B | 1.56B | 1.97B | 276.00M |
| Net Income | 2.51B | 2.65B | 4.79B | 1.89B | -352.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 22.21B | 20.96B | 20.64B | 16.04B | 13.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.01B | 10.61B | 10.07B | 9.62B | 8.32B |
| Total Debt | 2.07B | 2.29B | 2.30B | 2.34B | 2.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.01B | 12.55B | 12.48B | 10.48B | 8.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.20B | 8.41B | 8.16B | 5.56B | 4.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.65B | 4.52B | 3.88B | 3.40B | 2.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.65B | 4.52B | 3.88B | 3.43B | 2.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -748.00M | -616.00M | -1.04B | -28.00M | -1.35B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.83B | -3.57B | -2.43B | -689.00M | 1.31B |
Airbnb Technical Analysis
Positive
136.97
Price Trends
130.96
Positive
126.51
Positive
128.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
63.48
Neutral
92.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABNB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 136.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.04, above the 50-day MA of 130.96, and above the 200-day MA of 128.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABNB.
Airbnb Risk Analysis
Airbnb disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Airbnb reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Airbnb Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $76.49B | 32.66 | 30.23% | ― | 10.56% | 47.16% | |
71 Outperform | $128.86B | 24.57 | ― | 0.71% | 12.96% | 3.66% | |
71 Outperform | $34.30B | 8.62 | 19.95% | 0.39% | 17.34% | 91.51% | |
62 Neutral | $24.28B | 20.20 | 91.09% | 0.56% | 7.29% | 36.51% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $5.34B | 113.92 | 13.02% | ― | 14.55% | -68.46% | |
51 Neutral | $1.15B | 33.69 | 5.04% | ― | 4.24% | 159.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ABNB
Airbnb
136.97
-1.90
-1.37%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.