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Expedia
(NASDAQ:EXPE)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$267.00
▲(0.44% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/23/26
EXPE’s score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably robust and improving free cash flow) and a positive earnings update with meaningful margin expansion and reaffirmed growth/margin guidance. Offsetting these are mixed balance-sheet signals (historically high leverage vs. improved TTM snapshot) and only moderate technical strength with the stock still below its 200-day average; valuation appears reasonable but not compelling and the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Sustained high free cash flow provides durable financial optionality: funds operations, buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction without relying on external financing. Strong cash conversion also cushions cyclical travel demand and supports continued investment in product and AI over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Historical leverage volatility
Although TTM deleveraging is meaningful, prior high leverage levels indicate capital-structure cyclicality that can pressure financial flexibility if cash flow weakens. Equity-light structure can magnify returns but also raises refinancing and covenant risk during macro or travel demand shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Sustained high free cash flow provides durable financial optionality: funds operations, buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction without relying on external financing. Strong cash conversion also cushions cyclical travel demand and supports continued investment in product and AI over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Expedia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showcasing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Highlights income from different business areas, showcasing which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExpedia (EXPE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.25B
Dividend Yield0.56%
Average Volume (3M)1.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth10.01%
EPS Growth33.63%
CountryUS
Employees16,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.99
Shares Outstanding114,498,630
10 Day Avg. Volume1,645,649
30 Day Avg. Volume1,671,395
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.77
Price to Book (P/B)27.66
Price to Sales (P/S)2.41
P/FCF Ratio11.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$288.79Price Target Upside8.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)19.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.01B
Expedia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to...
How the Company Makes Money
Expedia Group makes money primarily by facilitating travel bookings and earning revenue from travel suppliers and travelers through several key streams. (1) Merchant and agency lodging models: Lodging is typically the largest category. Under the m...
Expedia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a materially positive quarter: double-digit bookings and revenue growth, substantial margin expansion (nearly 6 points), strong free cash flow and balance sheet actions, meaningful AI-driven productivity gains, and solid consumer and B2B momentum. However, management was candid about near-term headwinds from geopolitical events (Middle East conflict, Mexico advisories) that elevated cancellations in March, moderating partner promotions in B2B, and rising AI-related investment costs. The company maintained a cautious but constructive outlook given ongoing macro volatility.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Gross bookings grew 13% to $35.5 billion and revenue increased 15% to $3.4 billion (FX contributed ~3 points to bookings and ~5 points to revenue).
Negative Updates
March Volatility from Geopolitical Events
Conflict in the Middle East and travel advisories in Mexico drove elevated cancellations (Middle East <2% of total bookings but caused cancellations across Europe and Asia), slowing demand in March; management estimates bookings and room night growth would have been ~2 points higher excluding these impacts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Gross bookings grew 13% to $35.5 billion and revenue increased 15% to $3.4 billion (FX contributed ~3 points to bookings and ~5 points to revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Following a Q1 beat (gross bookings $35.5B, +13%; revenue $3.4B, +15%; adjusted EBITDA $542M, 15.8% margin), Expedia reiterated forward guidance: Q2 gross bookings growth of 7–9% and revenue growth of 9–11% (with current FX tailwinds of ~0.5 point to bookings and ~4 points to revenue) and Q2 adjusted EBITDA margins expected to be up 50–100 basis points; for the full year the company again expects gross bookings growth of 6–8% and revenue growth of 6–9% (including roughly 1 point and 2 points of FX tailwind to bookings and revenue, respectively) and total EBITDA margin expansion of 100–125 basis points (management expects to land at the high end of that range based on Q1/Q2 trends), while noting the outlook could have upside but is being prudently maintained given ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.Expedia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.17B | 14.73B | 13.69B | 12.84B | 11.67B | 8.60B |
| Gross Profit | 13.70B | 13.28B | 12.25B | 11.27B | 10.01B | 7.08B |
| EBITDA | 3.08B | 2.78B | 2.63B | 2.07B | 1.61B | 1.13B |
| Net Income | 1.49B | 1.29B | 1.23B | 797.00M | 352.00M | 12.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 26.46B | 24.45B | 22.39B | 21.64B | 21.56B | 21.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.04B | 7.30B | 4.48B | 4.25B | 4.14B | 4.31B |
| Total Debt | 4.71B | 6.67B | 6.53B | 6.57B | 6.55B | 8.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.62B | 21.91B | 19.59B | 18.86B | 17.83B | 18.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 576.00M | 1.28B | 1.56B | 1.53B | 2.28B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.69B | 3.11B | 2.33B | 1.84B | 2.78B | 3.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.86B | 3.88B | 3.08B | 2.69B | 3.44B | 3.75B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -587.00M | -531.00M | -1.26B | -800.00M | -580.00M | -931.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.32B | -2.14B | -1.75B | -2.10B | -2.62B | -973.00M |
Expedia Technical Analysis
Positive
265.84
Price Trends
236.63
Positive
233.21
Positive
241.58
Positive
Market Momentum
9.39
Negative
65.14
Neutral
78.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 265.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 242.79, above the 50-day MA of 236.63, and above the 200-day MA of 241.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXPE.
Expedia Risk Analysis
Expedia disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Expedia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Expedia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $89.76B | 36.15 | 31.24% | ― | 13.18% | 2.35% | |
74 Outperform | $32.25B | 22.41 | 147.58% | 0.56% | 10.01% | 33.63% | |
73 Outperform | $26.67B | 5.72 | 21.02% | 0.39% | 19.28% | 87.04% | |
66 Neutral | $143.01B | 24.20 | -95.80% | 0.71% | 14.95% | 17.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $5.53B | 117.27 | -38.21% | ― | 6.71% | -41.74% | |
57 Neutral | $1.66B | 102.07 | 2.86% | ― | 2.03% | -64.68% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EXPE
Expedia
268.69
93.59
53.45%
TCOM
Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR
41.00
-17.74
-30.20%
MMYT
Makemytrip
58.27
-37.42
-39.11%
BKNG
Booking Holdings
184.56
-42.19
-18.61%
TRIP
TripAdvisor
14.29
-3.21
-18.34%
ABNB
Airbnb
148.93
11.93
8.71%
Expedia Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Expedia Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 17, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. reported that a quorum was present, with 158,470,887 total votes represented across its common and Class B common stock. Shareholders elected 11 directors, inclu...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expedia Delivers Record Q1 Profitability and Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
May 7, 2026
Expedia Group, the U.S.-listed online travel company, reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, posting 13% growth in gross bookings to $35.53 billion and a 15% rise in revenue to $3.43 billion, with B2B revenue up 25%. The company swung...
Executive/Board Changes
Expedia Appoints Derek Andersen as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Expedia Group announced on April 23, 2026, that Derek Andersen will become chief financial officer effective May 11, 2026, succeeding Scott Schenkel, who is stepping down after a 16‑month tenure and will depart the company on May 16, 2026. T...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Expedia Issues $1 Billion Senior Notes for Financing
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of banks to issue $1 billion of 5.500% senior unsecured notes due April 15, 2036, and it completed the sale on April 10, 2026, generating approximately $...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Expedia Establishes New $2.5 Billion Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. entered into a new unsecured $2.5 billion revolving credit facility with a $120 million letter-of-credit sublimit, led by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., maturing on March 27, 2031. The facility, which had no loan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.