Expedia (EXPE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.21B
• Dividend Yield: 0.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: 5.57%
• EPS Growth: 61.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Travel Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 121,597,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,360,265
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,492,041
• PEG Ratio: -3.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.66
• 1Y Price Target: $184.17
• Price Target Upside: -3.31% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $212.00 ▲(11.30%Upside)

Expedia demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, notably in B2B and advertising segments. However, high leverage, valuation concerns, and macroeconomic challenges temper its overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Strong free cash flow and share buybacks could drive EPS growth, with potential buybacks of about 10% of shares.

Market Position

Expedia has added new airline partners like Southwest and Ryanair, which could support share gains.

Technological Innovation

Expedia announced AI powered Trip Matching, launching in June on Instagram, where travelers can share publicly available travel-related reels directly with Expedia and receive custom itineraries, destination ideas, & tips.

Negative Factors

Demand Trends

Some initial signs of softness in international unit trends are concerning.

Market Conditions

There are a lot of conflicting data points, including soft IATA data and a recent NTTO report showing another 3% year-over-year drop in overseas visits to the US.

Travel Industry Uncertainty

There is a slightly more tempered view of any sustainable travel recovery, pointing to multiple other data points and ongoing uncertainty around macro/tariff conditions as reasons for caution.

Expedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Retail, B2B, and trivago segments. Its brand portfolio include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand with localized websites; Hotels.com for marketing and distributing lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets travel websites; ebookers, an online EMEA travel agent for travelers an array of travel options; Hotwire, which offers travel booking services; CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a luxury travel specialist; and Expedia Cruise, a provider of advice for travelers booking cruises. The company's brand portfolio also comprise Expedia Partner Solutions, a business-to-business brand that provides travel and non-travel vertical, which includes corporate travel management, airlines, travel agents, online retailers and financial institutions; and Egencia that provides corporate travel management services. In addition, its brand portfolio consists of Trivago, a hotel metasearch website, which send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites; and Expedia Group Media solutions. Further, the company provides online travel services through its Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz brands; loyalty programs; hotel accommodations and alternative accommodations; and advertising and media services. It serves leisure and corporate travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Expedia makes money primarily through two revenue streams: the merchant model and the agency model. Under the merchant model, Expedia purchases travel inventory from service providers like hotels and airlines at wholesale rates and resells them to consumers, pocketing the difference as profit. Under the agency model, Expedia acts as an intermediary, facilitating bookings and earning a commission fee from the service providers for each transaction. Additionally, Expedia generates revenue through advertising, offering display advertisements on its platforms and charging travel service providers for enhanced visibility. Strategic partnerships with airlines, hotels, and travel service providers also play a crucial role in driving Expedia's earnings by expanding its inventory and enhancing its market reach.

Expedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Expedia demonstrates a strong financial position with substantial revenue growth and profitability, supported by effective cash flow management. However, high leverage and declining equity levels present potential risks. The company is well-positioned within the travel services industry, but must manage its debt carefully to sustain its growth trajectory.

Income Statement

Expedia's income statement shows a robust performance with strong margins. The gross profit margin for the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 88%, and the net profit margin is around 8.5%, indicating efficient cost management. Revenue growth has been consistent, with a notable increase year-over-year from 2020 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, suggesting operational efficiency. However, there was a decline in net income from the previous annual report, which slightly tempers the overall positive trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a mixed picture with a strong equity ratio of around 4.1% for the TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is notably high, at approximately 1.87, indicating significant leverage which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the company has a considerable amount of cash and cash equivalents, enhancing its liquidity position. Return on equity is a strong 109%, suggesting effective use of shareholder capital, though declining equity levels could be a concern.

Cash Flow

Expedia's cash flow statement shows a solid performance with a significant free cash flow of $3.144 billion for the TTM, reflecting a healthy cash generation capacity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at about 2.7, indicating strong cash conversion. The free cash flow growth rate has been impressive over the years, although capital expenditures have decreased, which might impact future growth. Overall, the company's cash flow management appears strong, supporting its operational needs and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.69B	12.84B	11.67B	8.60B	5.20B
Gross Profit	12.25B	11.27B	10.01B	7.08B	3.52B
EBITDA	2.63B	2.07B	1.61B	1.13B	-1.90B
Net Income	1.23B	797.00M	352.00M	12.00M	-2.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.39B	21.64B	21.56B	21.55B	18.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.87B	5.69B	4.14B	4.31B	3.39B
Total Debt	6.53B	6.57B	6.55B	8.81B	8.73B
Total Liabilities	19.59B	18.86B	17.83B	18.00B	14.66B
Stockholders Equity	1.56B	1.53B	2.28B	2.06B	2.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.33B	1.84B	2.78B	3.08B	-4.63B
Operating Cash Flow	3.08B	2.69B	3.44B	3.75B	-3.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.26B	-800.00M	-580.00M	-931.00M	-263.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.75B	-2.10B	-2.62B	-973.00M	4.08B

Expedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 190.48
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 190.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 179.56, above the 50-day MA of 172.04, and above the 200-day MA of 172.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXPE.

Expedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKNG	76 Outperform	$186.66B	35.69	-146.32%	0.65%	9.47%	20.70%
ABNB	75 Outperform	$87.59B	35.18	32.06%	―	9.68%	-47.83%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$24.21B	22.64	119.16%	0.42%	5.57%	61.19%
TCOM	73 Outperform	$42.33B	18.87	12.49%	<0.01%	16.23%	56.05%
MMYT	69 Neutral	$9.70B	115.60	22.38%	―	18.13%	-55.21%
TRIP	68 Neutral	$2.39B	50.03	5.91%	―	1.43%	121.44%
Sector *	64 Neutral	£1.74B	10.45	6.12%	255.82%	0.55%	-33.64%

Expedia Corporate Events

Expedia Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 3, 2025, Expedia Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where three key proposals were voted on. Stockholders elected 11 directors to the Board, approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, and ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXPE) stock is a Buy with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expedia stock, see the EXPE Stock Forecast page.

Expedia Announces Dividend Amid Strong Q1 2025 Results

On May 8, 2025, Expedia Group announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share, payable on June 18, 2025. The company reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 4% growth in bookings and a 3% increase in revenue year-over-year, despite softened travel demand in the U.S. Notably, Expedia exceeded its bottom-line guidance with a 16% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a significant share repurchase of $330 million. The results underscore Expedia’s strategic focus on margin expansion and top-line growth.