Expedia (EXPE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.28B
• Dividend Yield: 0.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: 7.29%
• EPS Growth: 36.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.78
• Shares Outstanding: 117,011,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,229,618
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,941,096
• PEG Ratio: 2.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 27.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.25
• 1Y Price Target: $276.19
• Price Target Upside: 35.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.90B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $200.00 ▼(-1.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is supported by solid operating performance and cash generation, reinforced by positive guidance and continued margin expansion expectations. These strengths are tempered by a high-leverage balance sheet and weak technicals (price in a pronounced downtrend despite oversold readings), with valuation and dividend offering only moderate support.

Positive Factors

Diversified multi-brand + B2B model

Expedia's mix of consumer brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, etc.) plus a growing B2B travel technology business provides multiple durable revenue streams and commercial levers. This diversification reduces single-channel cyclicality and supports steady bookings, advertising, and tech-fee income over time.

Strong cash generation and capital returns

Consistent high operating and free cash flow (FCF ~$3.1B, OCF ~$3.9B) funds debt service, buybacks and a rising dividend, giving management optionality. Strong cash convertibility (FCF ~70–80% of net income historically) supports durable shareholder returns and investment capacity.

Scale, product improvements and supply expansion

Material UX and platform performance gains plus record self-service reduce operating costs and improve conversion long-term. Combined with rising property counts and promotional partner participation, this strengthens supply-side scale and network effects that support sustainable margins and bookings.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and thin equity base

High net debt relative to a shrinking equity base constrains financial flexibility and raises downside risk in slower demand periods. Elevated leverage can limit strategic investments, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and reduce the buffer for macro or booking shocks over the medium term.

B2B margin pressure from growth investments

Deliberate investment to capture B2B share can compress margins as commission and tech investments rise. If incremental B2B revenue doesn't scale profitably, sustained higher sales and marketing costs could limit overall margin expansion and put pressure on consolidated profitability.

Free-cash-flow volatility and demand sensitivity

While FCF is substantial, meaningful year-to-year swings (FCF down ~13% in 2025) show sensitivity to bookings, FX and working-capital dynamics. That volatility complicates planning for debt reduction and buybacks and raises execution risk if demand softens or regional recoveries lag.

Expedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Retail, B2B, and trivago segments. Its brand portfolio include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand with localized websites; Hotels.com for marketing and distributing lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets travel websites; ebookers, an online EMEA travel agent for travelers an array of travel options; Hotwire, which offers travel booking services; CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a luxury travel specialist; and Expedia Cruise, a provider of advice for travelers booking cruises. The company's brand portfolio also comprise Expedia Partner Solutions, a business-to-business brand that provides travel and non-travel vertical, which includes corporate travel management, airlines, travel agents, online retailers and financial institutions; and Egencia that provides corporate travel management services. In addition, its brand portfolio consists of Trivago, a hotel metasearch website, which send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites; and Expedia Group Media solutions. Further, the company provides online travel services through its Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz brands; loyalty programs; hotel accommodations and alternative accommodations; and advertising and media services. It serves leisure and corporate travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Expedia generates revenue primarily through the sale of travel services and products. The company earns money through several key revenue streams, including: 1) Merchant Model: Expedia sells travel products, such as hotel rooms and vacation packages, directly to customers, marking up the prices from the suppliers and keeping the difference as profit. 2) Agency Model: The company acts as an intermediary between travelers and service providers (like airlines and hotels), earning commissions on bookings made through its platforms. 3) Advertising Revenue: Expedia also generates income from advertising on its websites, leveraging its significant traffic to attract partners who wish to promote their services. 4) Subscription Services: Some of Expedia's brands offer subscription-based services, providing members with exclusive deals and discounts. Significant partnerships with airlines, hotel chains, and other travel service providers further enhance its earnings, as these relationships help secure competitive pricing and exclusive offers that attract customers.

Expedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth since 2021 with solid 2025 profitability and robust free cash flow (~$3.1B) support operational strength. However, the balance sheet is a major constraint: leverage is elevated (debt ~$6.7B vs equity ~$1.3B) and the equity base has been shrinking, increasing risk and reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2021–2025 (from $8.6B to $14.7B), with profitability materially improved versus the 2020 loss year. Operating profitability is solid in 2025 (about 13% operating margin; ~19% EBITDA margin) and net margin is healthy (~9%), though slightly lower than 2024. The main watch-out is that growth cooled in 2025 versus the strong post-recovery surge, suggesting a more mature, slower-growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated: total debt is ~$6.7B against a relatively small equity base (~$1.3B), translating to a high debt-to-equity ratio (above 5x in 2025, up from ~4x in 2023–2024). Equity has trended down since 2022, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity are very high in 2023–2025, but that is partly a function of the thin equity base, so the risk profile is higher than it looks on the surface.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: 2025 operating cash flow was ~$3.9B and free cash flow was ~$3.1B, supporting debt service and capital return capacity. Free cash flow consistently tracks well relative to earnings (free cash flow is roughly 70%–80% of net income across 2021–2025). The key weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (down ~13% in 2025 after growth in 2024), indicating sensitivity to demand and working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.73B	13.69B	12.84B	11.67B	8.60B
Gross Profit	12.39B	12.25B	11.27B	10.01B	7.08B
EBITDA	2.87B	2.63B	2.07B	1.61B	1.13B
Net Income	1.29B	1.23B	797.00M	352.00M	12.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.45B	22.39B	21.64B	21.56B	21.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.30B	4.48B	4.25B	4.14B	4.31B
Total Debt	6.67B	6.53B	6.57B	6.55B	8.81B
Total Liabilities	21.91B	19.59B	18.86B	17.83B	18.00B
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	1.56B	1.53B	2.28B	2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.11B	2.33B	1.84B	2.78B	3.08B
Operating Cash Flow	3.88B	3.08B	2.69B	3.44B	3.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-531.00M	-1.26B	-800.00M	-580.00M	-931.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.14B	-1.75B	-2.10B	-2.62B	-973.00M

Expedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 203.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 203.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 228.42, below the 50-day MA of 262.65, and below the 200-day MA of 219.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -19.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXPE.

Expedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	75 Outperform	$76.49B	32.66	30.23%	―	10.56%	47.16%
BKNG	71 Outperform	$128.86B	24.57	―	0.71%	12.96%	3.66%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$34.30B	8.62	19.95%	0.39%	17.34%	91.51%
EXPE	62 Neutral	$24.28B	20.20	91.09%	0.56%	7.29%	36.51%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MMYT	53 Neutral	$5.34B	113.92	13.02%	―	14.55%	-68.46%
TRIP	51 Neutral	$1.15B	33.69	5.04%	―	4.24%	159.81%

Expedia Corporate Events

Expedia Delivers Strong 2025 Results and Raises Dividend

Expedia Group reported its fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, posting double‑digit year‑on‑year gains in gross bookings and revenue, 9% growth in room nights, and a 32% jump in adjusted EBITDA with margin expansion, underpinned by 24% growth in B2B bookings and strong international and U.S. demand. Despite a 31% decline in GAAP net income for the quarter, the company ended 2025 with $5.7 billion in unrestricted cash, repurchased about 9 million shares for $1.7 billion, raised its quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.48 per share, and declared a $0.48 dividend payable on March 26, 2026, signaling confidence in ongoing momentum and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXPE) stock is a Buy with a $303.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expedia stock, see the EXPE Stock Forecast page.