B&G Foods (BGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $336.75M
• Dividend Yield: 18.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.04
• Revenue Growth: -7.06%
• EPS Growth: -83.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,846
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 79,797,890
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,949,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,559,981
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.32
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▼(-7.41%Downside)

B&G Foods faces substantial financial challenges, including declining sales, negative profitability, and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the valuation indicates potential distress. Earnings call insights reveal cost-saving efforts but are overshadowed by negative sales and EBITDA trends.

Positive Factors

Currency effects

The devaluation of the Mexican peso will provide a transaction cost benefit to B&G at some point when they ship frozen vegetables that were produced in Mexico when the peso was weak.

Interest expense

Interest expense is expected to decline by 5% to $150M from the benefits of refinancing.

Sales trends

Management was encouraged to see that sales trends improved sequentially during the quarter.

Negative Factors

Market concerns

The stock's sharp pullback suggests concerns on whether deleveraging via divestments will be enough to make a difference.

Pricing challenges

Pricing was negatively offset by Crisco pass-through of $5M given deflationary soybean oil costs.

Sales outlook

They lowered FY25 sales outlook by 2% and EBITDA by 3% to reflect a slower path to stabilization.

B&G Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) is a leading manufacturer and distributor of high-quality, branded shelf-stable and frozen foods. The company operates in the consumer packaged goods sector, offering a diverse portfolio of well-recognized brands. These include Green Giant, Cream of Wheat, Ortega, and Mrs. Dash, among others. B&G Foods focuses on delivering a wide range of products that cater to various consumer needs, including spices, seasonings, sauces, hot cereals, and frozen vegetables.

How the Company Makes Money

B&G Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded food products to retail customers, which include supermarkets, warehouse clubs, and mass merchandisers. The company's revenue model is based on product sales, with a focus on expanding its market reach through strategic acquisitions of established brands. B&G Foods benefits from strong brand recognition, which helps maintain customer loyalty and command premium pricing. The company also engages in partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and distribution network, further contributing to its revenue. Additionally, B&G Foods invests in marketing and promotional activities to boost sales and maintain competitive positioning in the market.

B&G Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

B&G Foods faces financial challenges characterized by declining revenue, negative profitability, and high leverage. While cash flow management shows some strengths, the overall financial position suggests caution due to substantial debt and ongoing losses. Strategic adjustments may be necessary to improve financial health and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

B&G Foods has faced declining revenue and profitability in the last two years, with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin in the TTM period. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 21.4%, indicating challenges in controlling costs. Revenue has shrunk by 2.6% when compared to the previous year, reflecting a negative growth trajectory. Overall, the income statement suggests financial struggles and declining operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 4.01 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio stands at around 17.4%, showcasing a relatively low equity base compared to total assets. These metrics suggest potential financial risk due to high leverage, although the company maintains a moderate level of total assets. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing net losses.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a reasonable cash generation capability despite net losses, with a TTM ratio of -0.71. The company has experienced free cash flow growth of 14.3% over the last report year, showing some resilience in cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in achieving positive profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.88B	1.93B	2.06B	2.16B	2.06B	1.97B
Gross Profit	403.16M	421.95M	455.52M	409.62M	436.97M	481.74M
EBITDA	-33.76M	-85.06M	172.58M	203.44M	297.40M	354.66M
Net Income	-210.18M	-251.25M	-66.20M	-11.37M	67.36M	131.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.95B	2.99B	3.46B	3.84B	3.83B	3.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	61.23M	50.58M	41.09M	45.44M	33.69M	52.18M
Total Debt	2.06B	2.08B	2.12B	2.46B	2.34B	2.37B
Total Liabilities	2.44B	2.47B	2.63B	2.97B	2.91B	2.94B
Stockholders Equity	513.09M	524.81M	835.46M	868.17M	920.25M	831.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	118.52M	103.65M	222.07M	-16.32M	50.30M	254.73M
Operating Cash Flow	148.54M	130.91M	247.76M	5.96M	93.88M	281.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.96M	-27.68M	81.59M	-39.15M	-42.84M	-568.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-99.33M	-92.96M	-333.69M	45.34M	-69.84M	327.95M

B&G Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.24, below the 50-day MA of 4.43, and below the 200-day MA of 6.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BGS.

B&G Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SENEA	78 Outperform	$701.58M	17.23	6.77%	―	8.25%	-30.16%
NATR	77 Outperform	$292.27M	29.24	6.42%	―	2.00%	-37.09%
JJSF	69 Neutral	$2.27B	30.15	8.20%	2.67%	0.49%	-12.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$26.88B	15.20	-4.27%	3.19%	1.02%	1.89%
NAII	47 Neutral	$20.51M	―	-10.25%	―	-1.16%	-146.23%
BGS	44 Neutral	$336.75M	―	-32.48%	18.14%	-7.06%	-83.82%
HAIN	44 Neutral	$146.21M	―	-31.83%	―	-8.50%	-186.18%

B&G Foods Corporate Events

B&G Foods Amends Credit Facility Amid Industry Challenges

On July 1, 2025, B&G Foods announced an amendment to its senior secured credit facility, which temporarily increases the maximum consolidated leverage ratio and decreases the size of its revolving credit facility from $475 million to $430 million. This amendment aims to address current challenges in the packaged foods industry and manage working capital needs amidst tariff uncertainties. Additionally, during the second quarter of 2025, B&G Foods repurchased $20.7 million of its 5.25% senior notes due 2027, reflecting its ongoing efforts to reduce long-term debt and reshape its portfolio by divesting non-core brands.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGS) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on B&G Foods stock, see the BGS Stock Forecast page.

B&G Foods Announces Executive Leadership Change

On June 25, 2025, B&G Foods announced that Jordan E. Greenberg will step down from his role as Executive Vice President and President of Spices & Flavor Solutions, with his last day being August 24, 2025. The separation will be treated as a termination without cause, and Mr. Greenberg will receive severance benefits including salary continuation, medical and dental coverage, and accelerated vesting of restricted stock. Andrew D. Vogel will take over Greenberg’s responsibilities on an interim basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGS) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on B&G Foods stock, see the BGS Stock Forecast page.

B&G Foods Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

On May 15, 2025, B&G Foods held its annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders elected ten directors to serve until the next annual meeting, approved the compensation of named executive officers, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 3, 2026. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its future financial and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGS) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on B&G Foods stock, see the BGS Stock Forecast page.

B&G Foods Reports Q1 2025 Sales Decline

B&G Foods reported a challenging first quarter of 2025, with net sales decreasing by 10.5% to $425.4 million compared to the same period in 2024. The decline was attributed to reduced volumes, lower net pricing, and foreign currency impacts. Despite these challenges, the company saw a slight net income of $0.8 million, a significant improvement from the net loss in the previous year. The company has revised its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance, focusing on cost reduction, portfolio reshaping, and strategic acquisitions to improve future growth and margins.