B&G Foods (BGS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $352.82M
• Dividend Yield: 16.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: -6.91%
• EPS Growth: -83.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,846
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 80,003,746
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,114,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,679,964
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -42.04
• 1Y Price Target: $4.10
• Price Target Upside: -10.48% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-1.75% Downside)

B&G Foods faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and high leverage, which are the primary concerns impacting the stock score. The technical analysis and valuation provide mixed signals, with a high dividend yield offering some appeal. The earnings call suggests potential stabilization and improvement, but risks remain high.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

B&G Foods is focused on debt reduction through divestitures, aiming to reduce leverage from 6.9x EBITDA to 5.9x.

Division Performance

The Spice and Flavorings division performed well, up 5%.

Interest Expense

Interest expense is expected to decline by -5% to $150M from the benefits of refinancing.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

The guidance for 2H improvement looks overly optimistic, with expectations of base business growth to improve and a return to EBITDA growth.

Interest Costs

There is a risk of higher interest costs impacting the company's financial performance.

Sales Performance

The core sales decline of -4.2% and EBITDA decline of -9% reinforced concerns about structural challenges in the portfolio.

B&G Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company's products include frozen and canned vegetables, vegetables, canola and other cooking oils, vegetable shortening, cooking sprays, oatmeal and other hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, wine vinegar, maple syrups, molasses, salad dressings, pizza crusts, Mexican-style sauces, dry soups, taco shells and kits, salsas, pickles, peppers, tomato-based products, baking powder and soda, corn starch, cookies and crackers, nut clusters, and other specialty products. It markets its products under various brands, including Ac'cent, B&G, B&M, Back to Nature, Baker's Joy, Bear Creek Country Kitchens, Brer Rabbit, Canoleo, Cary's, Clabber Girl, Cream of Rice, Cream of Wheat, Crisco, Dash, Davis, Devonsheer, Don Pepino, Durkee, Emeril's, Grandma's Molasses, Green Giant, Joan of Arc, Las Palmas, Le Sueur, MacDonald's, Mama Mary's, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, McCann's, Molly McButter, New York Flatbreads, New York Style, Old London, Ortega, Polaner, Red Devil, Regina, Rumford, Sa-són, Sclafani, Spice Islands, Spring Tree, Sugar Twin, Tone's, Trappey's, TrueNorth, Underwood, Vermont Maid, Victoria, and Weber and Wright's. The company also sells, markets, and distributes household products under the Static Guard brand. It sells and distributes its products directly, as well as through a network of independent brokers and distributors to supermarket chains, foodservice outlets, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, non-food outlets, and specialty distributors. The company was formerly known as B&G Foods Holdings Corp. and changed its name to B&G Foods, Inc. in October 2004. B&G Foods, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

B&G Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food products across retail, foodservice, and industrial channels. The company operates a revenue model that includes selling its products to grocery stores, wholesalers, and foodservice operators. Key revenue streams include branded products, private label offerings, and partnerships with major retailers, which enhance market reach and brand visibility. Additionally, B&G Foods often capitalizes on strategic acquisitions to expand its product lines and customer base, contributing to its overall earnings. Seasonal promotions, product innovations, and effective marketing strategies further bolster sales and profitability.

B&G Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

B&G Foods is experiencing financial challenges with declining revenue, negative profitability, and high leverage. Despite some strengths in cash flow management, the overall financial position is concerning due to substantial debt and ongoing losses.

Income Statement

B&G Foods has faced declining revenue and profitability in the last two years, with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin in the TTM period. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 21.4%, indicating challenges in controlling costs. Revenue has shrunk by 2.6% when compared to the previous year, reflecting a negative growth trajectory. Overall, the income statement suggests financial struggles and declining operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 4.01 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio stands at around 17.4%, showcasing a relatively low equity base compared to total assets. These metrics suggest potential financial risk due to high leverage, although the company maintains a moderate level of total assets. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing net losses.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates a reasonable cash generation capability despite net losses, with a TTM ratio of -0.71. The company has experienced free cash flow growth of 14.3% over the last report year, showing some resilience in cash flow management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in achieving positive profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.86B	1.93B	2.06B	2.16B	2.06B	1.97B
Gross Profit	398.10M	421.95M	455.52M	409.62M	436.97M	481.74M
EBITDA	-55.52M	-85.06M	172.58M	203.44M	297.40M	354.66M
Net Income	-223.89M	-251.25M	-66.20M	-11.37M	67.36M	131.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.94B	2.99B	3.46B	3.84B	3.83B	3.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.08M	50.58M	41.09M	45.44M	33.69M	52.18M
Total Debt	2.04B	2.08B	2.12B	2.46B	2.34B	2.37B
Total Liabilities	2.44B	2.47B	2.63B	2.97B	2.91B	2.94B
Stockholders Equity	501.43M	524.81M	835.46M	868.17M	920.25M	831.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	131.17M	103.65M	222.07M	-16.32M	50.30M	254.73M
Operating Cash Flow	155.07M	130.91M	247.76M	5.96M	93.88M	281.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.85M	-27.68M	81.59M	-39.15M	-42.84M	-568.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-92.29M	-92.96M	-333.69M	45.34M	-69.84M	327.95M

B&G Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.22, above the 50-day MA of 4.24, and below the 200-day MA of 5.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BGS.

B&G Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NATR	80 Outperform	$293.46M	21.99	9.15%	―	4.33%	-6.33%
SENEA	72 Outperform	$745.94M	17.45	7.04%	―	7.30%	-13.73%
JJSF	65 Neutral	$2.19B	26.19	8.79%	2.69%	0.50%	-4.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.91B	14.58	-4.08%	3.07%	2.70%	-8.71%
NAII	53 Neutral	$24.49M	―	-10.25%	―	-1.16%	-146.23%
BGS	51 Neutral	$352.82M	―	-35.36%	16.59%	-6.91%	-83.51%
HAIN	46 Neutral	$161.55M	―	-31.83%	―	-8.50%	-186.18%

B&G Foods Corporate Events

B&G Foods Reports Q2 2025 Sales Decline

B&G Foods reported a decrease in net sales by 4.5% for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to reduced volume, pricing adjustments, and foreign currency impacts. The company also experienced a net loss of $9.8 million, attributed to the sale of certain brands and a decline in base business net sales. Despite these challenges, B&G Foods is optimistic about future improvements, having revised its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance and focusing on portfolio restructuring to enhance margins and cash flow.

B&G Foods Amends Credit Facility Amid Industry Challenges

On July 1, 2025, B&G Foods announced an amendment to its senior secured credit facility, which temporarily increases the maximum consolidated leverage ratio and decreases the size of its revolving credit facility from $475 million to $430 million. This amendment aims to address current challenges in the packaged foods industry and manage working capital needs amidst tariff uncertainties. Additionally, during the second quarter of 2025, B&G Foods repurchased $20.7 million of its 5.25% senior notes due 2027, reflecting its ongoing efforts to reduce long-term debt and reshape its portfolio by divesting non-core brands.

B&G Foods Announces Executive Leadership Change

On June 25, 2025, B&G Foods announced that Jordan E. Greenberg will step down from his role as Executive Vice President and President of Spices & Flavor Solutions, with his last day being August 24, 2025. The separation will be treated as a termination without cause, and Mr. Greenberg will receive severance benefits including salary continuation, medical and dental coverage, and accelerated vesting of restricted stock. Andrew D. Vogel will take over Greenberg’s responsibilities on an interim basis.

B&G Foods Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Meeting

On May 15, 2025, B&G Foods held its annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders elected ten directors to serve until the next annual meeting, approved the compensation of named executive officers, and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 3, 2026. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its future financial and strategic direction.