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TreeHouse Foods (THS)
:THS

TreeHouse Foods (THS) AI Stock Analysis

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THS

TreeHouse Foods

(NYSE:THS)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(37.36% Upside)
TreeHouse Foods' overall score is driven by a mix of positive technical indicators and the strategic acquisition announcement, which are offset by financial challenges and a negative valuation. The acquisition by Investindustrial is a key positive factor, providing a potential catalyst for future growth.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition by Investindustrial is expected to enhance TreeHouse Foods' strategic position and drive long-term growth, providing resources and support for expansion in private brands.
Operational Improvements
Operational improvements and supply chain cost savings indicate effective management strategies, which can lead to sustained margin improvements and profitability over time.
Supply Chain Savings Commitment
The commitment to significant supply chain savings reflects a proactive approach to cost management, which can enhance long-term financial health and competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges, as indicated by negative margins, suggest difficulties in cost management and operational efficiency, impacting long-term financial stability.
Rising Debt Levels
Increased reliance on debt can strain cash flow and limit financial flexibility, posing risks to the company's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns.
Volume Decline
Expected volume declines reflect ongoing challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, which could hinder revenue growth and market share expansion.

TreeHouse Foods (THS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TreeHouse Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTreeHouse Foods, Inc. manufactures and distributes private label foods and beverages in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Meal Preparation, and Snacking & Beverages. The Meal Preparation segment provides aseptic cheese and pudding products; baking and mix powders; hot cereals; jams, preserves, and jellies; liquid and powdered non-dairy creamers; macaroni and cheese; mayonnaise; Mexican, barbeque, and other sauces; pastas; pickles and related products; powdered soups and gravies; refrigerated and shelf stable dressings and sauces; refrigerated dough; single serve hot beverages; skillet dinners; and table and flavored syrups. The Snacking & Beverages segment offers bars, broths, candies, cookies, crackers, in-store bakery products, pita chips, powdered drinks, pretzels, ready-to-drink coffee, retail griddle waffles, pancakes, French toasts, specialty teas, and sweeteners. The company sells its products through various distribution channels, including retailers, foodservice distributors, and co-manufacturers, as well as industrial and export, which includes food manufacturers and repackagers of foodservice products. TreeHouse Foods, Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyTreeHouse Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its private label and branded food products. The company partners with major retailers and food service operators to provide a wide range of products, which allows it to capture market share in various food categories. Key revenue streams include sales from grocery items, snack foods, and meal solutions, with an emphasis on private label offerings that provide cost-effective options for consumers. Additionally, TreeHouse Foods benefits from economies of scale in production and distribution, enabling them to maintain competitive pricing while maximizing profitability. Significant partnerships with large grocery chains and food service providers further enhance the company's revenue potential by ensuring broad distribution and brand visibility.

TreeHouse Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
TreeHouse Foods experienced a mixed quarter with several positive achievements, including exceeding sales and EBITDA guidance and operational improvements. However, challenges such as volume declines, commodity inflation, and plant closures tempered the overall performance. While strategic acquisitions and cost-saving initiatives show promise for future growth, current headwinds in volume and mix remain a concern.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Guidance in Adjusted Net Sales and EBITDA
TreeHouse Foods achieved adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA results that exceeded the upper end of their guidance ranges for the second quarter of 2025.
Strong Performance in Certain Segments
The company's adjusted net sales were up 1.4% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA was $73.3 million, up about 4% year-over-year. This demonstrates the success of their margin improvement plan.
Operational Improvements and Cost Savings
$10.6 million benefit in operations and supply chain was achieved through supply chain cost savings and improved operational execution.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of Harris Tea added a benefit of almost 5% to net sales, contributing positively to the company's performance.
Commitment to Supply Chain Savings
The company is taking actions to deliver its commitment of $250 million of gross supply chain savings through 2027.
Negative Updates
Decline in Volume and Mix
There was a decline in volume and mix due to planned margin management actions, slower takeaway, and service impacts from the Griddle facility restoration.
Commodity Inflation and Pricing Challenges
Pricing net of commodities (PNOC) was a drag of $9.7 million year-over-year, driven by higher costs due to commodity inflation.
Griddle and Broth Production Issues
Net sales were negatively impacted by Griddle recall-related returns and service issues in the broth category, affecting performance.
Volume Decline Expected to Continue
Company volume and mix are expected to decline approximately 1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing challenges.
Plant Closures
The company decided to close two plants to rightsize their network within the pickles and cookies businesses.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, TreeHouse Foods reported adjusted net sales and adjusted EBITDA that exceeded the upper end of their guidance ranges, indicating successful execution of their margin improvement plan. Adjusted net sales grew by 1.4% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA improved by 4% to $73.3 million, raising the adjusted EBITDA margin by 20 basis points to 9.1%. The company anticipates full-year adjusted net sales to range between $3.36 billion and $3.415 billion, with an expected adjusted EBITDA of $345 million to $375 million. They also project free cash flow of at least $130 million. Despite challenges from macroeconomic factors and competitive pressures, TreeHouse Foods remains focused on cost reduction, supply chain optimization, and strategic investments, such as their acquisition of Harris Tea, to enhance profitability and cash flow. Looking ahead, the third quarter adjusted net sales are expected to range from $840 million to $870 million, with an adjusted EBITDA forecast between $90 million and $110 million.

TreeHouse Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TreeHouse Foods shows mixed financial performance with modest revenue growth and cash flow improvements. However, profitability is a concern with negative margins, and the balance sheet indicates high leverage. The company needs to enhance operational efficiency and reduce debt to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
TreeHouse Foods shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 17.66%, which is reasonable but slightly below the industry average. The company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -7.25% and a negative EBIT margin. Revenue growth is modest at 3.6% TTM, showing some recovery from previous declines. However, the negative EBITDA margin highlights operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet presents a moderate risk profile with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29 TTM, indicating a relatively high leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. However, the equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base. The company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a free cash flow growth rate of 6.89% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in converting profits into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.34B3.35B3.43B3.30B2.81B4.35B
Gross Profit589.20M548.40M576.10M522.40M471.60M802.20M
EBITDA1.30M243.60M300.10M210.60M129.30M325.10M
Net Income-241.80M26.90M53.10M-146.30M-12.50M13.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.78B3.98B4.11B4.25B5.21B5.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments21.00M289.60M320.30M43.00M304.50M364.60M
Total Debt1.63B1.57B1.60B1.59B2.06B2.39B
Total Liabilities2.51B2.43B2.44B2.57B3.36B3.62B
Stockholders Equity1.26B1.55B1.66B1.69B1.85B1.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow100.80M126.10M16.50M-236.50M253.30M311.00M
Operating Cash Flow233.70M265.80M157.30M-150.70M324.90M416.70M
Investing Cash Flow-329.50M-138.30M226.70M412.00M-16.80M-332.40M
Financing Cash Flow13.80M-159.30M-107.50M-522.70M-362.30M74.00M

TreeHouse Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.20
Price Trends
50DMA
21.47
Positive
100DMA
20.00
Positive
200DMA
21.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.68
Positive
RSI
65.66
Neutral
STOCH
72.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.72, below the 50-day MA of 21.47, and below the 200-day MA of 21.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for THS.

TreeHouse Foods Risk Analysis

TreeHouse Foods disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TreeHouse Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TreeHouse Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$760.54M12.949.41%8.33%47.71%
69
Neutral
$1.81B27.946.82%3.33%0.54%-24.42%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
61
Neutral
$1.21B-17.18%-0.69%-910.85%
51
Neutral
$382.29M-1.49-40.86%16.17%-6.04%-844.18%
51
Neutral
$458.87M-752.942.23%11.31%99.83%
38
Underperform
$101.44M-0.20-75.51%-10.13%-532.32%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
THS
TreeHouse Foods
23.89
-10.11
-29.74%
BGS
B&G Foods
4.70
-2.00
-29.85%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
94.96
-66.74
-41.27%
SENEA
Seneca Foods
111.59
33.47
42.84%
STKL
SunOpta
3.84
-4.02
-51.15%
HAIN
Hain Celestial
1.17
-6.24
-84.21%

TreeHouse Foods Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TreeHouse Foods Announces Acquisition by Investindustrial
Positive
Nov 12, 2025

On November 10, 2025, TreeHouse Foods, Inc. announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Investindustrial for a total enterprise value of $2.9 billion. Shareholders will receive $22.50 per share in cash and one contingent value right per share, representing a 38% premium to the closing share price on September 26, 2025. The acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. This move is seen as a strategic step for TreeHouse Foods to enhance its position as a private brand leader in the snacking and beverage industry, with Investindustrial’s support expected to drive long-term growth and success.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
TreeHouse Foods to Be Acquired by Investindustrial
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, TreeHouse Foods announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Investindustrial for a total enterprise value of $2.9 billion. TreeHouse shareholders will receive $22.50 per share in cash and a Contingent Value Right per share, representing a 38% premium to the company’s closing share price on September 26, 2025. The acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will result in TreeHouse becoming a private company, enhancing its focus on long-term growth opportunities in private brands and its operational agility. This move is seen as a strategic step to maximize shareholder value and position TreeHouse Foods for continued success.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025