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BGC Group (BGC)
NASDAQ:BGC

BGC Group (BGC) AI Stock Analysis

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BGC

BGC Group

(NASDAQ:BGC)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/31/25
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (revenue growth, improved margins, and strong cash generation) and a very positive earnings update with upbeat guidance. These are partly offset by balance-sheet leverage risk and a relatively high P/E with a low dividend yield, while technicals are mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and successful product offerings, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Cash Generation
Robust cash generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt management, supporting future growth.
Market Position
Achieving record market share in key areas strengthens competitive positioning and indicates leadership in the financial services sector.
Negative Factors
Rising Expenses
Significant rise in expenses could pressure margins and profitability, potentially affecting long-term financial performance.
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting operational flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Modest Profit Margins
Modest profit margins indicate potential challenges in cost management and profitability, impacting long-term financial health.

BGC Group (BGC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BGC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States and internationally. The company offers various brokerage products, such as fixed income, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt instruments, as well as related interest rate derivatives and credit derivatives; equities, energy and commodities, shipping, insurance, and futures and options. It also provides trade execution, connectivity solutions, brokerage services, clearing, trade compression and other post-trade services, information, and other back-office services to an assortment of financial and non-financial institutions. In addition, the company offers electronic and hybrid brokerage, other financial technology solutions, market data and related information services, and analytics related to financial instrument and markets. Its integrated platform is designed to provide flexibility to customers with regard to price discovery, execution and processing of transactions, and enables to use ots Voice, Hybrid, or in various markets, as well as fully electronic brokerage services in connection with transactions executed either OTC or through an exchange. It primarily serves banks, broker-dealers, investment banks, trading firms, hedge funds, governments, and corporations, as well as investment firms. BGC Group, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyBGC Group generates revenue primarily through brokerage fees and commissions earned from facilitating trades in financial instruments and commodities. The company earns a significant portion of its income by acting as an intermediary in transactions, charging clients for executing trades and providing market intelligence. Additionally, BGC derives revenue from technology solutions and data analytics services, offering platforms that enhance trading efficiency for clients. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and enhanced trading technology further contribute to its revenue streams, allowing BGC to expand its market reach and optimize its service offerings.

BGC Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: record revenues and adjusted earnings, broad-based growth across asset classes and geographies, significant market share gains (notably FMX UST and Fenics), and ambitious 2026 guidance. Key risks and negatives include sizable one-time charges and elevated compensation/non-compensation expenses (partly due to acquisition activity and cost-savings execution), some reliance on acquisitions (OTC) for headline growth, currency headwinds, and timing/fee rolloffs for newer FMX futures products. On balance the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights given the scale of record revenue, market-share gains, successful divestitures at attractive valuations, and robust forward guidance.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth (Q4 and Full Year 2025)
Fourth quarter revenues of $756.4M, up 32.2% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenues increased ~30% to nearly $3.0B (company said ‘approaching $3,000,000,000’).
Strong Adjusted Earnings and EPS Expansion
GAAP EPS grew 24% year-over-year and adjusted earnings grew 19% for the year; pretax adjusted earnings rose 24.5% to $161.3M in the quarter (pretax adjusted margin 21.3%); post-tax adjusted earnings increased 21.1% to $149.6M, adjusted EPS (quarter) $0.31.
Broad-Based Business Growth Across Asset Classes
Total brokerage revenues up 34.6% to $694.6M. Segment growth included ECS +92% to $257.5M (ex-OTC +10%), Rates +16.4% to $197.4M, FX +9.8% to $102.8M, Equities +29% to $72.7M, Credit +3% to $64.3M, and Data/Network/Post-Trade up ~14% (ex Capitalab).
Fenics and FMX Momentum
Fenics revenues rose 15.4% to $163.9M (Fenics Markets $136.7M, +15.1%). FMX UST ADV $58.7B (Q4 record), up >12% YoY and FMX UST market share ~39%–40% (Q4 record 39%, up from 30% a year ago). FMX futures ADV and open interest increased 8% and 297% QoQ respectively; FMX FX ADV +40% to $15.5B.
Product Adoption and New Growth Channels
Portfolio Match ADV grew 68% and is estimated to represent nearly 20% of the U.S. credit sweep market. Lucera revenues grew 24.1%, with expansion into additional fixed-income/connectivity products planned for 2026.
Acquisition and Market Position Gains
Acquisition of OTC contributed materially to growth and market share—company claims expanded market share, completed its second-largest acquisition, and became the world’s largest energy broker.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Liquidity increased to $979.1M at year-end 2025 from $897.8M a year earlier; fully diluted weighted average share count modestly decreased (~0.8%).
Cost Reduction Progress and 2026 Guidance
Completed first phase of cost reduction program to realize $25.0M of annualized savings in 2026. Company guided Q1 2026 revenues $860M–$920M (midpoint ≈34% growth) and pretax adjusted earnings $202M–$222M (midpoint >32% growth).
Strategic Divestitures Realizing Value
Sold KACE for up to $119M (noted as 28x post-tax profits) and sold other lower-growth Fenics businesses for combined proceeds near $165M, consistent with stated shareholder-value strategy.
Negative Updates
Large Compensation and Benefit Expense Increase
Compensation and employee benefits rose 71.8% under GAAP and 40.1% on an adjusted basis; GAAP increase driven by cost reduction charges, OTC acquisition, higher commissionable revenues, loan forgiveness, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Material One-Time Charges Weigh on GAAP Results
GAAP income from operations before taxes decreased 8% to $25.0M and included $54.8M of charges from the cost reduction program (cash impact $28.1M). These charges also caused adjusted EBITDA to decline 0.8% to $190.6M.
Acquisition-Driven Headline Growth (Organic Growth Lower)
Headline growth was significantly aided by the OTC acquisition: Q4 revenues including OTC up 32.2%, but excluding OTC Q4 revenues were $641.9M, up 12.2% (still strong but materially lower than headline). ECS growth of +92% was heavily influenced by OTC (ECS ex-OTC +10%).
Non-Compensation Expense Increase and Currency Headwinds
Non-compensation expenses increased 25.5% GAAP (27.1% adjusted); excluding OTC non-comp expenses rose ~13.5% GAAP. A weaker U.S. dollar reduced margins (management cited excluding weaker dollar would raise pretax margin from 21.3% to ~23.7%).
Temporary Fee/Revenue Timing and Product Maturity Risks
FMX futures business still early-stage for some products (Treasury futures deferred until SOFR scale achieved); some fee holidays and staged fee changes (timing for recognizing fee revenue is phased), creating short-term uncertainty on revenue recognition pace.
Dependence on Market Volatility
Management reiterated that volatility boosts volumes and revenue (a structural positive for growth but a risk if market volatility subsides), suggesting sensitivity of near-term results to trading environment.
Company Guidance
BGC guided first-quarter 2026 revenues of $860 million to $920 million (versus $664.2 million in Q1 2025), with a midpoint of $890 million implying roughly 34% year‑over‑year revenue growth; excluding OTC, midpoint organic revenue growth is expected to be about 15%. Pretax adjusted earnings are guided to $202 million–$222 million (versus $160.2 million last year), with a midpoint of $212 million implying over 32% pretax earnings growth, and the company expects a 2026 adjusted‑earnings tax rate of 11%–14%. The outlook assumes no material acquisitions or dispositions and is subject to change based on macroeconomic, social, political, and other risks.

BGC Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and improved gross margin support solid operating performance, and cash flow metrics are healthy with robust free cash flow growth. The main offset is higher balance-sheet risk from elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90), even though ROE is strong.
Income Statement
78
Positive
BGC Group has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 7.07% in the TTM, indicating a positive trend in sales. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 56.50%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains modest at 6.10%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, showing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at 1.90, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 17.65%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at a moderate level, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
BGC Group's free cash flow growth rate is robust at 16.18%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong, reflecting efficient cash management.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.01B2.21B1.98B1.77B1.99B
Gross Profit2.69B979.52M893.20M837.19M633.31M
EBITDA442.08M345.65M215.36M230.44M327.70M
Net Income154.96M126.99M36.27M48.71M124.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.41B3.59B3.18B3.07B3.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments873.67M711.58M655.64M502.01M553.60M
Total Debt1.80B1.48B1.34B1.21B1.23B
Total Liabilities3.26B2.51B2.28B2.34B2.68B
Stockholders Equity972.48M898.51M885.08M669.64M619.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00243.29M345.31M165.60M363.89M
Operating Cash Flow0.00315.35M405.20M224.36M417.19M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-96.99M-90.71M-53.33M121.13M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-149.02M-146.88M-233.21M-819.54M

BGC Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.60
Price Trends
50DMA
9.05
Positive
100DMA
9.03
Positive
200DMA
9.41
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.16
Negative
RSI
57.65
Neutral
STOCH
73.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.18, above the 50-day MA of 9.05, and above the 200-day MA of 9.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BGC.

BGC Group Risk Analysis

BGC Group disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BGC Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BGC Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$6.02B7.6730.87%2.88%27.66%131.25%
71
Outperform
$4.51B31.1216.56%0.88%24.77%35.85%
71
Outperform
$5.15B21.733.69%51.19%456.59%
70
Outperform
$6.72B18.6216.17%32.53%13.38%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$4.93B21.3930.80%4.06%1.58%1.93%
62
Neutral
$5.82B20.7821.65%1.63%12.77%36.43%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BGC
BGC Group
9.60
0.78
8.81%
SNEX
StoneX Group
128.67
47.38
58.29%
LAZ
Lazard
51.33
4.08
8.64%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
326.85
52.14
18.98%
MC
Moelis
63.18
-4.36
-6.46%
VIRT
Virtu Financial
39.82
4.97
14.25%

BGC Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BGC Group Reaffirms Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Outlook
Positive
Dec 29, 2025

On December 29, 2025, BGC Group, Inc. announced that it had updated its outlook for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, reaffirming the previously stated ranges for revenue and pre-tax Adjusted Earnings that were first communicated with its November 6, 2025 financial results. Alongside the outlook confirmation, the company detailed its use of several non-GAAP financial measures, including various forms of Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, Liquidity, and Constant Currency, explaining that these metrics exclude a wide range of equity-based compensation charges, restructuring-related items, acquisition-related costs, non-cash amortization and impairment charges, and other unusual or non-recurring gains and losses, underscoring management’s focus on presenting what it views as the firm’s underlying operating performance to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGC) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BGC Group stock, see the BGC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BGC Group Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 12, 2025, BGC Group, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and operations. The stockholders elected six directors to serve until the next annual meeting, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s commitment to maintaining its leadership structure and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGC) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BGC Group stock, see the BGC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 31, 2025