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BGC Group (BGC)
NASDAQ:BGC

BGC Group (BGC) AI Stock Analysis

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BG

BGC Group

(NASDAQ:BGC)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(13.74%Upside)
BGC's strong financial performance and positive technical indicators contribute significantly to its high score. The positive guidance and outlook from the earnings call further boost confidence in future growth. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, which slightly tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Macro Environment
A favorable macro backdrop under the new US administration is expected to benefit BGC Group, supporting the Buy recommendation.
Market Expansion
FMX Futures is expected to introduce differentiated services, enhancing its value proposition and market appeal.
Product Line Expansion
BGC Group's FMX Futures Exchange added 2Yr and 5Yr US Treasury futures to its product line-up, representing a meaningful milestone in the exchange’s ramp.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Challenges
Compliance and operational hurdles are slowing down the adoption of FMX Futures platform among brokers.
Regulatory Restrictions
Banks face regulatory restrictions and integration challenges before becoming active on FMX Futures, affecting trading activity.

BGC Group (BGC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BGC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States and internationally. The company offers various brokerage products, such as fixed income, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt instruments, as well as related interest rate derivatives and credit derivatives; equities, energy and commodities, shipping, insurance, and futures and options. It also provides trade execution, connectivity solutions, brokerage services, clearing, trade compression and other post-trade services, information, and other back-office services to an assortment of financial and non-financial institutions. In addition, the company offers electronic and hybrid brokerage, other financial technology solutions, market data and related information services, and analytics related to financial instrument and markets. Its integrated platform is designed to provide flexibility to customers with regard to price discovery, execution and processing of transactions, and enables to use ots Voice, Hybrid, or in various markets, as well as fully electronic brokerage services in connection with transactions executed either OTC or through an exchange. It primarily serves banks, broker-dealers, investment banks, trading firms, hedge funds, governments, and corporations, as well as investment firms. BGC Group, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyBGC Group generates revenue primarily through its brokerage services, where it acts as an intermediary in the trading of various financial instruments, earning commissions and fees for facilitating these transactions. The company also derives income from its technology and data solutions, providing clients with market data and analytics services. Additionally, BGC has significant partnerships and strategic alliances that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. BGC's acquisition strategy also plays a vital role in its revenue model, allowing it to integrate new services and technologies that complement its existing operations.

BGC Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook with record-breaking revenues and significant growth in key segments like ECS and foreign exchange. The successful acquisition of OTC Global Holdings is expected to further boost revenue and market position. However, there were some challenges including a small decline in credit revenues, flat equities performance, and delays in FMX launch due to market conditions. Overall, the outlook for future growth remains strong.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
BGC Group achieved record quarterly revenues of over $664 million, marking a 15% increase compared to the previous year's first quarter.
Successful Acquisition of OTC Global Holdings
Completed the acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, expected to add over $400 million in annualized revenue and nearly doubling the size of BGC's existing ECS business.
Significant Growth in Key Segments
ECS revenue grew by 26.6% to $149.9 million, and foreign exchange revenues increased by 31% to $110 million.
Strong Performance of FMX
FMX UST generated record average daily volume of over $60 billion in Q1, a 33% increase compared to last year.
Positive Revenue Outlook
BGC expects Q2 2025 revenues to be between $715 million and $765 million, representing approximately 34% growth compared to Q2 2024.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Credit Revenues
Credit revenues decreased by 0.7% to $86.9 million due to lower emerging market and European credit volumes.
Flat Equities Revenue
Equities revenues remained flat at $62.9 million due to higher European and U.S. equity volumes being offset by lower Asian equity derivative volumes.
Delays in FMX Launch
The launch of FMX was delayed due to extreme market volatility in April.
Higher Tax Rate
The tax rate came in at 11.9% for the quarter, higher than previous quarters.
Company Guidance
During the BGC Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for the second quarter of 2025, projecting total revenues between $715 million and $765 million, representing a potential growth of approximately 34% from the previous year's second quarter. Excluding the recent acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, revenue growth is expected to range from 10% to 17%. BGC anticipates pretax adjusted earnings between $156 million and $171 million, with an expected midpoint growth of 30%. The projected adjusted earnings tax rate for the full year 2025 is set between 10% and 12%. The company noted the transformative acquisition of OTC Global Holdings, expected to add over $400 million in annualized revenue, significantly enhancing BGC's ECS business.

BGC Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BGC Group exhibits strong financial health with a stable revenue growth trajectory and improved profitability metrics. The balance sheet is robust, though there is a slight uptick in leverage. Cash flow management remains efficient, supporting positive financial prospects.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
BGC Group demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent increase in gross profit margin and net profit margin over recent periods. The revenue growth is stable, with the latest TTM showing a 3.80% increase from the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating better operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has slightly increased, indicating some reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has improved over the periods, signaling efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio shows a stable capital structure with reasonable equity backing the assets.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong and covers net income comfortably, suggesting good cash generation. Although free cash flow has decreased in the TTM, the overall trend shows positive growth over the years. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient cash utilization despite some fluctuations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.29B2.21B1.98B1.77B1.99B2.06B
Gross Profit1.01B979.52M1.81B837.19M633.31M842.50M
EBITDA360.28M345.65M202.48M230.44M327.70M234.25M
Net Income132.94M126.99M36.27M48.71M124.01M45.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.88B3.59B3.18B3.07B3.34B3.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments966.36M711.58M655.64M484.99M553.60M654.86M
Total Debt1.69B1.48B1.34B1.21B1.23B1.32B
Total Liabilities3.74B2.51B2.28B2.34B2.68B3.14B
Stockholders Equity963.78M898.51M885.08M669.64M619.75M754.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow215.76M243.29M345.31M165.60M363.89M219.44M
Operating Cash Flow288.10M315.35M405.20M224.36M417.19M302.61M
Investing Cash Flow-94.43M-96.99M-90.71M-53.33M121.13M-77.94M
Financing Cash Flow211.68M-149.02M-146.88M-233.21M-819.54M-13.10M

BGC Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.55
Price Trends
50DMA
9.58
Positive
100DMA
9.29
Positive
200DMA
9.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Negative
RSI
65.22
Neutral
STOCH
89.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.97, above the 50-day MA of 9.58, and above the 200-day MA of 9.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BGC.

BGC Group Risk Analysis

BGC Group disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BGC Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BGC Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BGBGC
80
Outperform
$5.29B41.0814.17%0.74%13.28%117.88%
74
Outperform
$5.13B25.2417.59%0.90%10.27%88.77%
LALAZ
71
Outperform
$4.69B17.3759.68%3.97%9.54%
69
Neutral
$554.80M15.155.81%3.55%5.48%-54.25%
69
Neutral
$4.60B16.2616.69%67.71%19.42%
MCMC
68
Neutral
$5.29B30.0439.98%3.96%45.14%
64
Neutral
$6.48B11.457.19%225.06%23.75%4.96%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BGC
BGC Group
10.55
1.67
18.81%
SNEX
StoneX Group
95.96
45.38
89.72%
LAZ
Lazard
50.06
11.79
30.81%
PIPR
Piper Sandler
284.85
53.59
23.17%
MC
Moelis
66.20
9.62
17.00%
AMRK
A-Mark Precious Metals
22.31
-11.14
-33.30%

BGC Group Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
BGC Group Updates Q2 2025 Financial Outlook
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, BGC Group, Inc. announced an updated outlook for the second quarter of 2025, expecting to exceed its previously stated ranges for revenue and pre-tax Adjusted Earnings. This update suggests a positive financial performance for the quarter, potentially strengthening BGC’s market position and signaling growth to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BGC Group stock, see the BGC Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
BGC Group Buys Back Shares from Former CEO
Positive
May 19, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Howard W. Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and former CEO of BGC Group, agreed to sell over 16.4 million shares of Class A Common Stock back to the company as part of a divestiture to comply with U.S. government ethics rules. The transaction, valued at approximately $151.5 million, reflects BGC’s strategy to return capital to shareholders and is expected to enhance shareholder value. Additionally, Lutnick agreed to sell his Class B shares and other interests to Cantor Fitzgerald, maintaining Cantor Fitzgerald as BGC’s largest shareholder. These moves are part of Lutnick’s broader plan to divest his interests in BGC, transferring control to trusts managed by his family.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGC) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BGC Group stock, see the BGC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025