BGC Group (BGC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.33B
• Dividend Yield: 0.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 24.77%
• EPS Growth: 35.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,971
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 364,809,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,140,850
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,438,388
• PEG Ratio: 1.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.04
• 1Y Price Target: $14.00
• Price Target Upside: 53.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.26B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(15.13% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/03/26

The score is primarily held back by financial performance risks—especially the 2025 swing to negative operating cash flow/free cash flow and elevated leverage—despite strong revenue and profitability momentum. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend and healthy momentum. Valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E and modest yield, while the latest earnings call was a positive offset given robust 2026 guidance and market-share gains.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Momentum

Sustained double-digit revenue acceleration across 2025 demonstrates durable demand for BGC’s brokerage and electronic platforms. Higher revenues across cycles support scale economies, investment in product development, and the ability to fund margin expansion and strategic initiatives without relying solely on volatile trading spikes.

Market Share & Platform Momentum

Rising market share in FMX UST and steady Fenics growth reflect competitive positioning in electronic execution. Market-share gains in core venues are sticky: deeper liquidity attracts more flow, strengthens network effects, and underpins recurring fee revenue and long-term platform defensibility versus smaller rivals.

Product Diversification & Strategic Actions

Expanding product adoption (Portfolio Match, Lucera) plus strategic divestitures demonstrate active portfolio management. Diversified revenue channels (voice, electronic, data, post‑trade) reduce reliance on any single market segment, enabling more stable long-term revenue and better allocation of capital to higher-return initiatives.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

A sharp reversal to negative operating and free cash flow materially weakens earnings quality and reduces financial optionality. Persistent weak cash conversion would limit reinvestment, M&A flexibility and shareholder returns, and increases reliance on external financing during stress periods.

Elevated Leverage

Higher and rising leverage in a capital‑markets broker raises liquidity and solvency risk if trading volumes or fee rates decline. Elevated debt reduces balance‑sheet flexibility for opportunistic investments, intensifies interest‑cost sensitivity, and can compress returns in adverse market cycles.

Acquisition Reliance & Expense Volatility

Material contribution from acquisitions and large compensation/one‑time charges create earnings volatility and reduce clarity on organic profitability. Reliance on deal-driven growth raises integration risk, wage-cost sensitivity, and the potential need for future restructuring if synergies lag expectations.

BGC Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BGC Group, Inc. operates as a financial brokerage and technology company in the United States and internationally. The company offers various brokerage products, such as fixed income, such as government bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt instruments, as well as related interest rate derivatives and credit derivatives; equities, energy and commodities, shipping, insurance, and futures and options. It also provides trade execution, connectivity solutions, brokerage services, clearing, trade compression and other post-trade services, information, and other back-office services to an assortment of financial and non-financial institutions. In addition, the company offers electronic and hybrid brokerage, other financial technology solutions, market data and related information services, and analytics related to financial instrument and markets. Its integrated platform is designed to provide flexibility to customers with regard to price discovery, execution and processing of transactions, and enables to use ots Voice, Hybrid, or in various markets, as well as fully electronic brokerage services in connection with transactions executed either OTC or through an exchange. It primarily serves banks, broker-dealers, investment banks, trading firms, hedge funds, governments, and corporations, as well as investment firms. BGC Group, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

BGC Group generates revenue primarily through brokerage fees and commissions earned from facilitating trades in financial instruments and commodities. The company earns a significant portion of its income by acting as an intermediary in transactions, charging clients for executing trades and providing market intelligence. Additionally, BGC derives revenue from technology solutions and data analytics services, offering platforms that enhance trading efficiency for clients. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and enhanced trading technology further contribute to its revenue streams, allowing BGC to expand its market reach and optimize its service offerings.

BGC Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue momentum and improved operating profitability into 2025 are offset by elevated and rising leverage and a sharp deterioration in 2025 cash generation (operating cash flow and free cash flow turning negative). The cash-flow reversal is the largest near-term risk to earnings quality and liquidity despite otherwise constructive income-statement trends.

Income Statement

Revenue growth re-accelerated strongly in 2025 (annual report: +11.2%) after steady growth in 2023–2024 (~11% each), pointing to improving business momentum. Profitability is positive but modest, with net margin around ~5–6% in 2024–2025 (down from 2021’s ~6.2%), and operating profitability improved versus 2023 (EBIT margin ~11.3% in 2025 vs ~6.8% in 2023). Key weakness is margin volatility across the period (including a negative EBIT in 2021), suggesting earnings can swing with operating conditions and costs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and trending higher recently, with debt-to-equity rising to ~1.85 in 2025 from ~1.51 in 2023, which increases financial risk if markets weaken. Equity has grown (2025 equity ~$972M vs ~$899M in 2024), supporting improved returns, and return on equity strengthened to ~15.9% in 2025 (from ~14.1% in 2024 and ~4.1% in 2023). The primary concern remains the consistently high leverage profile for a capital markets business, limiting balance-sheet flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated sharply in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning negative (both about -$183M) versus positive levels in 2024 (operating cash flow ~$315M; free cash flow ~$243M). This reversal also shows up in the steep free-cash-flow decline in 2025 and indicates weaker cash conversion versus reported earnings for the year. A strength is that prior years (2020–2024) generally produced positive operating and free cash flow, but the 2025 swing raises near-term quality-of-earnings and liquidity risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.01B	2.21B	1.98B	1.77B	1.99B
Gross Profit	2.69B	979.52M	893.20M	837.19M	633.31M
EBITDA	442.08M	345.65M	215.36M	230.44M	327.70M
Net Income	154.96M	126.99M	36.27M	48.71M	124.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.41B	3.59B	3.18B	3.07B	3.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	873.67M	711.58M	655.64M	502.01M	553.60M
Total Debt	1.80B	1.48B	1.34B	1.21B	1.23B
Total Liabilities	3.26B	2.51B	2.28B	2.34B	2.68B
Stockholders Equity	972.48M	898.51M	885.08M	669.64M	619.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	267.84M	243.29M	345.31M	165.60M	363.89M
Operating Cash Flow	333.87M	315.35M	405.20M	224.36M	417.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-222.16M	-96.99M	-90.71M	-53.33M	121.13M
Financing Cash Flow	21.23M	-149.02M	-146.88M	-233.21M	-819.54M

BGC Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BGC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.46, below the 50-day MA of 9.16, and below the 200-day MA of 9.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BGC.

BGC Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIRT	73 Outperform	$6.25B	6.06	30.48%	2.88%	27.66%	131.25%
PIPR	72 Outperform	$5.17B	20.11	21.69%	1.63%	12.77%	36.43%
MC	71 Outperform	$4.39B	22.13	44.30%	3.69%	51.19%	456.59%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SNEX	62 Neutral	$5.62B	8.65	16.43%	―	32.53%	13.38%
BGC	60 Neutral	$4.33B	27.45	16.18%	0.88%	24.77%	35.85%
LAZ	60 Neutral	$4.15B	19.99	30.96%	4.06%	1.58%	1.93%

BGC Group Corporate Events

BGC Group Reaffirms Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Outlook

On December 29, 2025, BGC Group, Inc. announced that it had updated its outlook for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, reaffirming the previously stated ranges for revenue and pre-tax Adjusted Earnings that were first communicated with its November 6, 2025 financial results. Alongside the outlook confirmation, the company detailed its use of several non-GAAP financial measures, including various forms of Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, Liquidity, and Constant Currency, explaining that these metrics exclude a wide range of equity-based compensation charges, restructuring-related items, acquisition-related costs, non-cash amortization and impairment charges, and other unusual or non-recurring gains and losses, underscoring management’s focus on presenting what it views as the firm’s underlying operating performance to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (BGC) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BGC Group stock, see the BGC Stock Forecast page.