Biodesix (BDSX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $44.39M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 107.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 22.29%
• EPS Growth: 31.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 273
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 7,955,685
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 48,205
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 107,552
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.78
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.50
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 437.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-1.43% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial condition (losses, negative cash flows, and high leverage/negative equity) and bearish technical trend signals. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings update with raised revenue guidance and improving margins/EBITDA trajectory, while valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Sustained high gross margins (81% in Q3) indicate the test portfolio has strong unit economics and pricing power. This margin profile helps absorb SG&A as the company scales, accelerating path to lasting adjusted EBITDA and operating leverage if revenue growth continues.

Consistent revenue growth and raised guidance

Double‑digit top‑line growth and an upward guidance revision reflect durable demand for lung diagnostics and testing volume expansion. Predictable revenue momentum improves visibility for capacity planning and supports scaling of fixed costs, aiding sustainable margin improvement.

Commercial expansion and partnerships

Expanding the sales force and deepening partnerships (e.g., Bio‑Rad) strengthen distribution and product development channels. Broader commercial reach and strategic collaborators support adoption across providers and create durable pathways to diversify revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Material leverage and negative equity constrain financial flexibility, raise refinancing and covenant risks, and increase the probability of dilution or restructuring. These structural balance sheet weaknesses limit the company's ability to fund growth or weather reimbursement delays.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business still consumes cash to grow. Until cash generation is consistently positive, the company will rely on external financing, which can be costly and limit reinvestment, slowing long‑term commercial expansion.

Reimbursement/collections risk from Medicare Advantage

Ongoing payment disputes with a major payer create structural revenue and cash collection uncertainty. Prolonged unresolved claims can depress reported revenue, strain working capital, and complicate forecasting, impairing sustainable operations and funding for growth initiatives.

Biodesix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Biodesix, Inc. operates as a data-driven diagnostic solutions company in the United States. The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests, together marketed as part of Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testing strategy, to assess the risk of lung cancer and help in identifying the appropriate treatment pathway and help physicians in reclassifying risk of malignancy in patients with suspicious lung nodules. It also offers GeneStrat ddPCR and VeriStrat tests, which are used in the diagnosis of lung cancer to measure the presence of mutations in the tumor and the state of the patient's immune system to establish the patient's prognosis and help guide treatment decisions; and GeneStrat NGS (NGS) test, a 72-hour blood-based NGS test. In addition, the company, through its partnership with Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., provides Bio-Rad SARS-CoV-2 ddPCR, a COVID-19 Test under Biodesix WorkSafe testing program; and Platelia SARS-CoV-2 Total Ab test, an antibody test for detecting a B-cell immune response to SARS-CoV-2 that indicate recent or prior infection. Further, it offers diagnostic and clinical research, as well as clinical trial testing services to biopharmaceutical companies; and discovers, develops, and commercializes companion diagnostics. The company was formerly known as Elston Technologies, Inc. Biodesix, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Biodesix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and related services. The company offers a range of tests that analyze biomarkers to guide treatment decisions in oncology, with a specific emphasis on lung cancer. Revenue is derived from healthcare providers and institutions that utilize these tests as part of their patient management protocols. Additionally, Biodesix may engage in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, which can lead to collaborations that enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. These partnerships can provide milestone payments and royalties, further contributing to the company's income. Furthermore, reimbursement from insurance payers for the diagnostic tests can also be a significant source of revenue, as it ensures that healthcare providers are compensated for utilizing Biodesix's services.

Biodesix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Biodesix faces significant financial challenges with negative net income and EBIT margins, high financial leverage, and negative cash flows. Despite strong gross margins, the overall financial health is concerning, necessitating strategic restructuring.

Income Statement

Biodesix's revenue has shown moderate growth with a 4.73% increase in the TTM period. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is strong at 78.77%, indicating efficient cost management, but the persistent negative net income and EBIT margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 63.39 in the TTM period, indicating potential financial risk. The negative stockholders' equity and return on equity suggest financial instability and the need for capital restructuring. The equity ratio is not available due to negative equity, further emphasizing the company's financial distress.

Cash Flow

Biodesix's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.05, indicating some alignment between cash flow and reported earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate and operating cash flow coverage ratio highlight liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.17M	71.32M	49.09M	38.21M	54.51M	45.56M
Gross Profit	63.99M	55.75M	36.08M	24.06M	23.99M	23.56M
EBITDA	-26.51M	-29.22M	-37.10M	-51.53M	-35.47M	-20.84M
Net Income	-39.54M	-42.93M	-52.15M	-65.45M	-43.16M	-31.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	88.72M	97.24M	99.10M	92.91M	76.10M	121.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.70M	26.25M	26.28M	43.09M	32.71M	62.13M
Total Debt	72.93M	61.98M	60.69M	31.85M	10.01M	27.77M
Total Liabilities	90.44M	76.37M	94.52M	72.30M	56.37M	79.90M
Stockholders Equity	-1.72M	20.88M	4.58M	20.61M	19.73M	41.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.27M	-51.88M	-45.93M	-48.51M	-30.77M	-23.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.14M	-48.65M	-22.87M	-44.97M	-28.22M	-21.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.18M	-3.44M	-23.06M	-3.53M	-2.55M	-2.93M
Financing Cash Flow	14.53M	52.05M	29.13M	58.88M	1.26M	81.13M

Biodesix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BDSX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.93, below the 50-day MA of 7.31, and below the 200-day MA of 7.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.01 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BDSX.

Biodesix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRPO	57 Neutral	$40.45M	-27.66	-9.76%	―	30.95%	59.67%
BNR	57 Neutral	$251.94M	-14.55	-19.87%	―	5.44%	72.17%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
VNRX	49 Neutral	$43.57M	-1.56	―	―	14.48%	36.83%
SERA	48 Neutral	$136.24M	-4.59	-47.69%	―	1.06%	22.41%
BDSX	44 Neutral	$44.39M	-1.04	-302.55%	―	22.29%	31.93%