Biodesix (BDSX)
NASDAQ:BDSX
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Biodesix
(NASDAQ:BDSX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(27.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, cash burn, and a stressed balance sheet with negative equity). Offsetting this are constructive earnings-call signals (strong 2026 growth guidance, high gross margins, and momentum toward adjusted EBITDA positivity) and a favorable technical trend, though overbought indicators add near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & 2026 Guidance
Biodesix has moved from low-to-mid single-digit growth to sustained acceleration: 2025 revenue grew ~24% and management guided ~23% growth for 2026. This suggests durable commercial traction in lung diagnostics and a multi-quarter revenue runway driven by volume, ASP gains, and expanded sales coverage.
Negative Factors
Stressed Balance Sheet & Leverage
Negative equity and nearly $73M of debt materially weaken financial flexibility. High leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk, limits ability to absorb shocks or invest opportunistically, and increases dependence on external capital during scale-up until consistent profits and cash generation appear.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & 2026 Guidance
Biodesix has moved from low-to-mid single-digit growth to sustained acceleration: 2025 revenue grew ~24% and management guided ~23% growth for 2026. This suggests durable commercial traction in lung diagnostics and a multi-quarter revenue runway driven by volume, ASP gains, and expanded sales coverage.
Read all positive factors
Biodesix (BDSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$143.24M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)107.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth22.29%
EPS Growth31.93%
CountryUS
Employees273
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.49
Shares Outstanding9,858,358
10 Day Avg. Volume48,205
30 Day Avg. Volume107,552
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)-20.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio-2.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside106.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$108.68M
Biodesix Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Biodesix, Inc. operates as a data-driven diagnostic solutions company in the United States. The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests, together marketed as part of Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testi...
How the Company Makes Money
Biodesix makes money primarily through (1) clinical testing revenue and (2) biopharma services revenue.
1) Clinical testing (diagnostic testing for patients): Biodesix generates revenue when its laboratory performs and reports results for its pro...
Biodesix Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business unit or product line generates, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth within the company’s portfolio.
Shows how much revenue each business unit or product line generates, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth within the company’s portfolio.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBiodesix Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented multiple strong operational and commercial positives: accelerating revenue growth, industry‑leading gross margins, the company's first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter, expanding sales coverage and strategic development partnerships. These highlights outweigh near‑term headwinds — such as seasonality, a $1M one‑time collection that partially boosted Q4 results, delayed clinical readouts for ALTITUDE, ongoing full‑year losses, and continued investment‑driven expense growth — which management is addressing through operational leverage, cash raises and loan amendments. On balance the call communicates momentum toward scaled, profitable growth while acknowledging execution and timing risks in the near term.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth and Upbeat 2026 Guidance
Total revenue of $28.8M in Q4 (+41% YoY) and $88.5M for fiscal 2025 (+24% YoY). 2026 guidance of $106M–$112M (midpoint = ~23% growth vs. 2025).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Profitability Not Yet Achieved
Despite Q4 adjusted EBITDA positivity, fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA remained a loss of -$17.5M and fiscal net loss was -$35.3M, indicating continued path to sustained profitability is not complete.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth and Upbeat 2026 Guidance
Total revenue of $28.8M in Q4 (+41% YoY) and $88.5M for fiscal 2025 (+24% YoY). 2026 guidance of $106M–$112M (midpoint = ~23% growth vs. 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Biodesix guided 2026 revenue of $106–112 million (midpoint implying ~23% growth vs. 2025’s $88.5M), expects gross margins to remain near ~80% (Q4 2025: 83%; FY2025: 81%) and is targeting continued progress toward sustained adjusted EBITDA positivity after producing its first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter of $0.53M (FY2025 adjusted EBITDA loss: $17.5M). The company plans to add ~6 sales reps per quarter (≈24 reps in 2026) to drive volume and ASP improvements seen in H2 2025; 2025 test volumes were 62,600 (Q4: 18,000) and lung diagnostics revenue was $79.2M for the year ($25.1M in Q4). Management cited upside levers from greater rep tenure, higher average revenue per test, and development-services growth, while noting Q1 seasonality and recent weather disruptions were factored into the range.Biodesix Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 88.50M | 71.32M | 49.09M | 38.21M | 54.51M |
| Gross Profit | 66.59M | 55.75M | 36.08M | 24.06M | 23.99M |
| EBITDA | -21.88M | -29.22M | -37.10M | -51.53M | -35.47M |
| Net Income | -35.27M | -42.93M | -52.15M | -65.45M | -43.16M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 87.48M | 97.24M | 99.10M | 92.91M | 76.10M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.99M | 26.25M | 26.28M | 43.09M | 32.71M |
| Total Debt | 72.85M | 61.98M | 60.69M | 31.85M | 10.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 89.94M | 76.37M | 94.52M | 72.30M | 56.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.46M | 20.88M | 4.58M | 20.61M | 19.73M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -23.53M | -51.88M | -45.93M | -48.51M | -30.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.27M | -48.65M | -22.87M | -44.97M | -28.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -403.00K | -3.44M | -23.06M | -3.53M | -2.55M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.42M | 52.05M | 29.13M | 58.88M | 1.26M |
Biodesix Technical Analysis
Positive
14.53
Price Trends
13.84
Positive
10.72
Positive
9.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
52.61
Neutral
55.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BDSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.15, above the 50-day MA of 13.84, and above the 200-day MA of 9.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BDSX.
Biodesix Risk Analysis
Biodesix disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Biodesix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Biodesix Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57 Neutral | $50.83M | -101.61 | -10.07% | ― | 30.95% | 59.67% | |
57 Neutral | $173.23M | -2.82 | -9.93% | ― | 5.44% | 72.17% | |
56 Neutral | $143.24M | -1.46 | -302.55% | ― | 22.29% | 31.93% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $84.55M | -4.40 | -47.69% | ― | 1.06% | 22.41% | |
47 Neutral | $26.61M | -1.17 | 76.82% | ― | 14.48% | 36.83% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BDSX
Biodesix
14.53
2.80
23.87%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.