Biodesix (BDSX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $100.00M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 107.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 22.29%
• EPS Growth: 31.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 273
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 7,955,685
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 48,205
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 107,552
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.78
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.08
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 127.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▼(-20.39% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial health—losses, negative cash flow, and a highly leveraged/negative-equity balance sheet. Offsetting this are strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings update with raised revenue guidance and improving margins/EBITDA, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margins

An 81% gross margin demonstrates strong unit economics for Biodesix's diagnostic tests, indicating durable pricing power and efficient cost structure. High gross margins provide structural capacity to invest in sales expansion and R&D while moving the business toward sustained adjusted EBITDA profitability as volumes scale.

Consistent Revenue Growth

20% year-over-year revenue growth driven by rising test volumes shows durable market adoption of Biodesix's lung diagnostics. This trend improves revenue visibility, enables better absorption of fixed lab costs, and supports long-term operating leverage as the company expands clinician adoption and sales coverage.

Development Services Expansion

Rapid growth in development services signals successful diversification into B2B and partnership revenue streams. Durable expansion of services reduces concentration risk on core tests, supports higher-margin contract revenues, and can strengthen long-term partnerships that underpin recurring institutional demand.

Negative Factors

Highly Levered Balance Sheet

A debt-to-equity ratio this elevated and negative stockholders' equity create structural solvency and flexibility constraints. High leverage raises refinancing risk and cost of capital, limits strategic options, and may force equity or debt restructuring, diluting shareholders or shifting long-term strategy if not remedied.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows create ongoing liquidity pressure and restrict the company's ability to self-fund sales expansion and R&D. Reliance on external financing increases execution risk and can delay the path to sustained profitability if cash generation does not materially improve over coming quarters.

Medicare Advantage Collection Risk

Unresolved Medicare Advantage collections create durable uncertainty around realizing billed revenue and cash receipts from a key payer. Prolonged disputes or slow recoveries can materially impair working capital, reduce near-term cash flow, and complicate forecasting and investment decisions for months ahead.

Biodesix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Biodesix, Inc. operates as a data-driven diagnostic solutions company in the United States. The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests, together marketed as part of Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testing strategy, to assess the risk of lung cancer and help in identifying the appropriate treatment pathway and help physicians in reclassifying risk of malignancy in patients with suspicious lung nodules. It also offers GeneStrat ddPCR and VeriStrat tests, which are used in the diagnosis of lung cancer to measure the presence of mutations in the tumor and the state of the patient's immune system to establish the patient's prognosis and help guide treatment decisions; and GeneStrat NGS (NGS) test, a 72-hour blood-based NGS test. In addition, the company, through its partnership with Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc., provides Bio-Rad SARS-CoV-2 ddPCR, a COVID-19 Test under Biodesix WorkSafe testing program; and Platelia SARS-CoV-2 Total Ab test, an antibody test for detecting a B-cell immune response to SARS-CoV-2 that indicate recent or prior infection. Further, it offers diagnostic and clinical research, as well as clinical trial testing services to biopharmaceutical companies; and discovers, develops, and commercializes companion diagnostics. The company was formerly known as Elston Technologies, Inc. Biodesix, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Biodesix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and related services. The company offers a range of tests that analyze biomarkers to guide treatment decisions in oncology, with a specific emphasis on lung cancer. Revenue is derived from healthcare providers and institutions that utilize these tests as part of their patient management protocols. Additionally, Biodesix may engage in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, which can lead to collaborations that enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. These partnerships can provide milestone payments and royalties, further contributing to the company's income. Furthermore, reimbursement from insurance payers for the diagnostic tests can also be a significant source of revenue, as it ensures that healthcare providers are compensated for utilizing Biodesix's services.

Biodesix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderate revenue growth and strong gross margins are outweighed by persistent losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and a highly stressed balance sheet with very high leverage and negative equity.

Income Statement

Biodesix's revenue has shown moderate growth with a 4.73% increase in the TTM period. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is strong at 78.77%, indicating efficient cost management, but the persistent negative net income and EBIT margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 63.39 in the TTM period, indicating potential financial risk. The negative stockholders' equity and return on equity suggest financial instability and the need for capital restructuring. The equity ratio is not available due to negative equity, further emphasizing the company's financial distress.

Cash Flow

Biodesix's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.05, indicating some alignment between cash flow and reported earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate and operating cash flow coverage ratio highlight liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.17M	71.32M	49.09M	38.21M	54.51M	45.56M
Gross Profit	63.99M	55.75M	36.08M	24.06M	23.99M	23.56M
EBITDA	-26.50M	-29.22M	-37.10M	-51.53M	-35.47M	-20.84M
Net Income	-39.54M	-42.93M	-52.15M	-65.45M	-43.16M	-31.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	88.72M	97.24M	99.10M	92.91M	76.10M	121.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.70M	26.25M	26.28M	43.09M	32.71M	62.13M
Total Debt	72.93M	61.98M	60.69M	31.85M	10.01M	27.77M
Total Liabilities	90.44M	76.37M	94.52M	72.30M	56.37M	79.90M
Stockholders Equity	-1.72M	20.88M	4.58M	20.61M	19.73M	41.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.27M	-51.88M	-45.93M	-48.51M	-30.77M	-23.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.14M	-48.65M	-22.87M	-44.97M	-28.22M	-21.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.18M	-3.44M	-23.06M	-3.53M	-2.55M	-2.93M
Financing Cash Flow	14.53M	52.05M	29.13M	58.88M	1.26M	81.13M

Biodesix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BDSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.86, above the 50-day MA of 8.80, and above the 200-day MA of 7.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BDSX.

Biodesix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNR	57 Neutral	$322.89M	-18.61	-19.87%	―	5.44%	72.17%
PRPO	56 Neutral	$41.73M	-28.29	-9.76%	―	30.95%	59.67%
BDSX	52 Neutral	$100.00M	-2.38	-302.55%	―	22.29%	31.93%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SERA	48 Neutral	$99.96M	-3.34	-47.69%	―	1.06%	22.41%
VNRX	47 Neutral	$29.15M	-0.90	―	―	14.48%	36.83%