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MDxHealth (MDXH)
NASDAQ:MDXH
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MDxHealth
(NASDAQ:MDXH)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(13.12%Upside)
Positive Factors
Profitability Outlook
MDXH is on track to achieve its AEBITDA positivity milestone, which is critical to de-risking the model further.
Revenue Growth
MDXH turned in a strong Q1, driving +22% Y/Y organic revenue growth on the back of +41% Y/Y volume growth from its tissue-based tests and +9% Y/Y volume growth from its liquid-based test portfolio.
Valuation Potential
Shares of MDXH trade at just 0.8x our 2026 rev estimate of $128M, below small cap peers at 2.0x, and MDXH is primed to achieve multiple expansion.
Negative Factors
Margin Pressure
Gross margin of 62.7% declined Y/Y due to timing and test mix, and expanded ~150bp Q/Q.
Valuation Concerns
The price target was adjusted from $7.00 to $5.00, indicating a more conservative outlook.
MDxHealth (MDXH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)65.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth25.46%
EPS Growth21.83%
CountryUS
Employees312
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength40
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.19
Shares Outstanding49,497,334
10 Day Avg. Volume60,011
30 Day Avg. Volume65,839
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.30
Price to Book (P/B)18.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-6.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside171.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
MDxHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMDxHealth (MDXH) is a molecular diagnostics company focused on the development and commercialization of advanced epigenetic and other molecular diagnostic tests for cancer detection and diagnosis. Operating primarily in the healthcare sector, MDxHealth's core products include non-invasive tests for prostate and bladder cancer, which aid in the early detection and treatment of these diseases. The company's tests are designed to provide more accurate diagnosis, reduce unnecessary procedures, and contribute to personalized patient care.
How the Company Makes MoneyMDxHealth generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, laboratories, and clinicians. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales of its tests, partnerships with clinical laboratories for test processing, and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to integrate its diagnostic solutions into broader treatment plans. MDxHealth also benefits from reimbursements provided by health insurance companies and government healthcare programs, which cover the use of its tests in clinical practice. Additionally, the company engages in research collaborations and licensing agreements that contribute to its revenue.
MDxHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 24.16%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance by MDxHealth, with consistent revenue growth driven by tissue-based tests and improved gross margins. However, challenges remain with increased net loss and the impact of a significant earn-out payment. Overall, the company's strategic positioning and future outlook appear positive, but financial losses present ongoing challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Revenue Growth
Achieved 16th consecutive quarter of 20% or greater revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue growth at 22%.
Strong Tissue-Based Test Performance
Tissue-based test volume grew 41% for the quarter, indicating significant market penetration and acceptance.
Improved Gross Profit and Margin
Gross profit increased 29% to $15.5 million, with gross margins rising to 63.8% from 60.8% in Q1 2024.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Trend
Adjusted EBITDA improved by 71% to negative $1.3 million, with expectations to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025.
Strategic Positioning in Prostate Cancer Diagnostics
MDxHealth positioned as a leader with proprietary tests like Confirm and GPS, capturing a significant portion of a $500 million market opportunity.
Negative Updates
Increased Net Loss
Net loss increased by 8% to $9.2 million, primarily due to non-cash fair value adjustments.
Operating Loss Despite Revenue Growth
Operating loss for the quarter was $4.6 million, though improved from the prior year.
Impact of Earn-Out Payment
Pro forma cash balance reduced to $37.7 million after a $28 million earn-out payment to Exact Sciences.
Company Guidance
During the MDxHealth First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its financial guidance, projecting revenue between $108 million to $110 million for the fiscal year of 2025, aligning with their objective of 20% revenue growth. The call highlighted a 22% increase in Q1 revenue to $24.3 million and a 41% growth in tissue-based test volumes. Total billable volumes reached approximately 24,000 tests, up 24% from the previous year. The company emphasized its strong market position in precision diagnostics for prostate cancer, driven by successful integration and adoption of their Confirm mdx and GPS tests, which accounted for 85% of Q1 revenue. MDxHealth also reported a gross margin increase to 63.8% and expected to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, showcasing operational discipline and sustained growth across their urology diagnostic offerings.MDxHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
MDxHealth shows significant revenue growth in a high-potential industry but faces challenges with profitability, leverage, and cash flow. The high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flow highlight financial instability, requiring strategic debt management and improved profitability.Income Statement
MDxHealth's revenue has shown a strong upward trend with significant growth in recent years. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income. Despite the increase in gross profit, the net profit margin remains negative, reflecting ongoing financial pressure.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a high level of debt relative to equity, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is low, showing limited shareholder equity in comparison to total assets. These factors suggest a leveraged position, which can pose financial risks if not managed carefully.35
Negative
Cash Flow
While MDxHealth's free cash flow remains negative, there is an improvement in cash flow from financing activities. The operating cash flow continues to be negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The company shows some resilience through financing activities, but sustained negative free cash flow is a concern.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 94.51M | 90.05M | 70.19M | 37.05M | 22.24M | 18.37M |
| Gross Profit | 58.58M | 55.14M | 43.93M | 19.22M | 10.41M | 7.85M |
| EBITDA | -13.43M | -21.70M | -30.47M | -36.39M | -23.99M | -23.79M |
| Net Income | -38.77M | -38.07M | -43.10M | -50.19M | -30.88M | -30.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 174.83M | 157.33M | 129.13M | 119.14M | 75.07M | 31.86M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.67M | 46.80M | 22.38M | 15.50M | 58.50M | 15.95M |
| Total Debt | 83.98M | 60.06M | 41.27M | 39.79M | 15.56M | 15.87M |
| Total Liabilities | 168.87M | 142.49M | 121.92M | 109.82M | 28.17M | 26.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.97M | 14.84M | 7.21M | 9.31M | 46.90M | 5.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -17.52M | -19.72M | -26.52M | -38.28M | -23.44M | -20.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -15.65M | -18.53M | -21.50M | -34.12M | -22.55M | -20.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.00M | -1.64M | -3.93M | -29.16M | -885.00K | -537.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 67.84M | 44.60M | 32.28M | 20.84M | 66.50M | 14.29M |
MDxHealth Technical Analysis
Positive
2.21
Price Trends
1.99
Positive
1.81
Positive
1.95
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
56.48
Neutral
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDXH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.12, above the 50-day MA of 1.99, and above the 200-day MA of 1.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDXH.
MDxHealth Risk Analysis
MDxHealth disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MDxHealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MDxHealth Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $152.81M | ― | -117.50% | ― | 1.78% | 22.46% | |
57 Neutral | $109.29M | ― | -1552.23% | ― | 25.46% | 21.83% | |
54 Neutral | $103.10M | ― | -26.74% | ― | 85.33% | 30.70% | |
52 Neutral | $77.42M | ― | 138.92% | ― | 64.15% | 41.65% | |
52 Neutral | $92.30M | ― | -41.36% | ― | -44.17% | 12.77% | |
46 Neutral | C$194.85M | -4.28 | -8.56% | 2.84% | 13.52% | -1.74% | |
43 Neutral | $40.30M | ― | -1454.41% | ― | 35.76% | 47.48% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MDXH
MDxHealth
2.21
-0.13
-5.56%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.75
0.13
20.97%
XGN
Exagen
6.97
5.23
300.57%
BDSX
Biodesix
0.28
-1.29
-82.17%
PRE
Prenetics Group
7.91
1.93
32.27%
SERA
Sera Prognostics
2.45
-2.94
-54.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.