Exagen (XGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $138.34M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 263.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 1.78%
• EPS Growth: 22.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 209
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 21,854,916
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 513,008
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 263,922
• PEG Ratio: 6.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 19.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.00
• Price Target Upside: 38.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲( 3.99% Upside)

Exagen's strengths in revenue growth and strategic initiatives are offset by significant challenges in profitability, high leverage, and cash flow issues. Technical indicators are positive, but valuation and financial health concerns limit the stock's attractiveness. Recent corporate events provide some financial stability, yet achieving profitability remains crucial for improving the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Exagen's first-quarter update was positive, as revenue beat consensus by 7%.

Financial Performance

Exagen's new credit facility enabled it to refinance its debt and provides additional capital for future needs.

Negative Factors

Profitability

Exagen aims to achieve cash flow breakeven at the end of 2025 with its current cash balance, protecting shareholder value.

Valuation

Shares currently trade at 2 times 2025 revenue, with some room for expansion.

Exagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exagen Inc. develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States. It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Exagen Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests, primarily the AVISE® suite of tests. These tests are designed to help physicians diagnose and manage autoimmune diseases by providing detailed biomarker information. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service approach, where healthcare providers or patients are billed for each test performed. Exagen also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, which facilitate the integration of their tests into routine clinical practice and ensure reimbursement for their services. The company's earnings are influenced by the volume of tests performed, reimbursement rates, and its ability to expand its market presence and develop new diagnostic solutions.

Exagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exagen shows positive revenue growth but struggles with profitability due to negative EBIT and net profit margins. The healthy gross profit margin of 59.3% indicates good cost control, but high leverage and declining equity pose risks.

Income Statement

Exagen's revenue growth has been positive, with a 2% increase from the previous annual report to the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company is struggling with profitability as evidenced by negative EBIT and net profit margins. The gross profit margin is healthy at 59.3% for the TTM, showing good control over cost of goods sold, but overall profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio has decreased to 15.9% in the TTM, showing reduced equity as a percentage of total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to continuous net losses. The financial position is weakened by declining equity and high liabilities.

Cash Flow

Exagen's cash flow situation is challenging, with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. There is a lack of positive cash flow trends, and the company is reliant on external financing to manage its operations.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
56.72M	55.64M	52.55M	45.56M	48.30M	41.98M
	Gross Profit
33.64M	33.11M	29.46M	21.35M	27.71M	25.42M
	EBIT
-14.00M	-13.64M	-22.84M	-40.55M	-24.07M	-15.19M
	EBITDA
-12.16M	-11.14M	-19.15M	-43.11M	-23.10M	-13.65M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.51M	-15.12M	-23.69M	-47.39M	-26.85M	-16.69M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.19M	22.04M	36.49M	62.39M	99.44M	57.45M
	Total Assets
40.29M	44.69M	56.94M	86.22M	123.44M	78.38M
	Total Debt
5.03M	23.00M	23.72M	34.50M	27.48M	26.66M
	Net Debt
-6.16M	969.00K	-12.77M	-27.89M	-71.96M	-30.79M
	Total Liabilities
33.89M	35.15M	34.25M	43.76M	38.51M	36.54M
	Stockholders Equity
6.40M	9.54M	22.69M	42.46M	84.94M	41.84M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-15.45M	-13.79M	-15.29M	-36.46M	-22.64M	-14.54M
	Operating Cash Flow
-14.91M	-13.28M	-14.46M	-32.14M	-20.27M	-14.08M
	Investing Cash Flow
-536.00K	-515.00K	-804.00K	-4.32M	-2.42M	-455.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-627.00K	-663.00K	-10.63M	-489.00K	64.68M	-97.00K

Exagen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XGN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.12, above the 50-day MA of 4.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XGN.

Exagen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XGN	60 Neutral	$138.34M	―	-117.50%	―	1.78%	22.46%
MDXH	55 Neutral	$106.91M	―	-1552.23%	―	25.46%	21.83%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.07	-43.58%	2.80%	16.87%	-0.11%
VNRX	52 Neutral	$50.58M	―	138.92%	―	64.15%	41.65%
BDSX	46 Neutral	$39.69M	―	-1454.41%	―	35.76%	47.48%
SERA	43 Neutral	$79.87M	―	-41.36%	―	-44.17%	12.77%
BNR	39 Underperform	$29.27M	―	-51.22%	―	-5.72%	48.12%

Exagen Corporate Events

Exagen Closes Public Offering, Raises $20.2 Million

On May 9, 2025, Exagen Inc. successfully closed its public offering of 3,350,000 shares of common stock at $5.25 per share, raising approximately $18.6 million in net proceeds. The offering, which included the full exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase an additional 502,500 shares, resulted in gross proceeds of about $20.2 million, enhancing Exagen’s financial position and potentially strengthening its market presence in the autoimmune diagnostics industry.

Exagen Enters Underwriting Agreement for Stock Offering

On May 8, 2025, Exagen Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Canaccord Genuity LLC for the issuance and sale of 3,350,000 shares of its common stock at $5.25 per share. The offering, expected to close on May 9, 2025, aims to raise approximately $16.2 million in net proceeds, which will be used for working capital and potential acquisitions. This move is part of Exagen’s strategy to enhance its financial position and explore growth opportunities in the autoimmune diagnostics market.

Exagen Secures $75 Million Credit Agreement

On April 25, 2025, Exagen Inc. entered into a Credit Agreement with Perceptive Credit Holdings IV, LP, securing a senior secured delayed draw term loan facility of up to $75 million, with an initial $25 million tranche funded to refinance existing debt and extend the maturity. This strategic financial move is aimed at strengthening Exagen’s balance sheet and providing growth capital, allowing the company to further its leadership in autoimmune testing solutions and enhance patient care. The agreement includes additional tranches contingent on revenue and business development milestones, with the loan secured by Exagen’s assets and accompanied by a warrant to purchase shares of Exagen’s common stock.