Exagen (XGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $134.85M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 278.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 14.08%
• EPS Growth: 1.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 209
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 22,663,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 338,984
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 278,460
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -17.92
• 1Y Price Target: $15.25
• Price Target Upside: 196.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(16.50% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak profitability and negative cash flow despite improving leverage, alongside bearish technicals (below key moving averages and negative MACD). Partially offsetting these are positive operational updates and guidance pointing to strong revenue growth, improving ASP over the trailing 12 months, and a stronger cash position, though execution risks remain around ASP/reimbursement and timing of cash-flow positivity.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates successful market penetration and increasing demand for Exagen's diagnostic tests, supporting long-term business expansion.

New Product Launch

The launch of new biomarkers enhances Exagen's product portfolio, potentially attracting more healthcare providers and increasing market share in autoimmune diagnostics.

Debt Reduction

Reduced leverage improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing Exagen to invest in growth opportunities without the burden of high debt costs.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues may hinder reinvestment in business operations and limit Exagen's ability to achieve sustainable financial health.

Cash Flow Issues

Negative cash flow growth indicates inefficiencies in cash generation, potentially affecting Exagen's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses, driven by R&D and sales expansion, may pressure margins and delay profitability, impacting long-term financial performance.

Exagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exagen Inc. develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States. It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Exagen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests, particularly the AVISE® test portfolio, which includes various assays for autoimmune diseases. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service structure, where healthcare providers order tests for their patients, and Exagen bills the providers or their insurance companies for the services rendered. Key revenue streams include reimbursements from insurance payers, including Medicare and commercial health insurance, which cover the costs of the tests based on established reimbursement rates. Additionally, Exagen may engage in partnerships with healthcare organizations and research institutions to expand its market reach and enhance test offerings, further contributing to its earnings through collaborative agreements and joint ventures.

Exagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exagen is experiencing revenue growth but faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges. The reduction in leverage is positive, yet operational inefficiencies and negative cash flow persist, impacting financial stability.

Income Statement

Exagen's income statement reveals a mixed performance. The company has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 8.05% TTM, indicating an upward trajectory in sales. However, the net profit margin is negative at -28.85% TTM, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 59.42% TTM, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational inefficiencies and high costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a significant improvement in the debt-to-equity ratio, which decreased to 0.14 TTM from 2.45 in the previous year, indicating reduced leverage. However, the return on equity remains negative at -136.26% TTM, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall financial stability appears to be improving with reduced debt levels.

Cash Flow

Exagen's cash flow statement indicates challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -31.23% TTM, and operating cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -1.49 TTM, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Despite these issues, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating some level of cash flow alignment with reported earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	63.60M	55.64M	52.55M	45.56M	48.30M	41.98M
Gross Profit	38.07M	33.11M	29.46M	21.35M	27.71M	25.42M
EBITDA	-13.65M	-11.14M	-19.15M	-43.66M	-23.10M	-13.65M
Net Income	-19.04M	-15.12M	-23.69M	-47.39M	-26.85M	-16.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	62.82M	44.69M	56.94M	86.22M	123.44M	78.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.65M	22.04M	36.49M	62.39M	99.44M	57.45M
Total Debt	28.17M	23.00M	23.23M	35.20M	28.07M	26.97M
Total Liabilities	44.69M	35.15M	34.25M	43.76M	38.51M	36.54M
Stockholders Equity	18.14M	9.54M	22.69M	42.46M	84.94M	41.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.99M	-13.79M	-15.29M	-36.46M	-22.64M	-14.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-10.25M	-13.28M	-14.46M	-32.14M	-20.27M	-14.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-737.00K	-515.00K	-804.00K	-4.32M	-2.42M	-455.00K
Financing Cash Flow	24.60M	-663.00K	-10.63M	-489.00K	64.68M	-97.00K

Exagen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.21, below the 50-day MA of 7.56, and below the 200-day MA of 7.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 23.88 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XGN.

Exagen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRE	51 Neutral	$223.29M	-4.34	-23.93%	―	159.45%	8.59%
ACRS	50 Neutral	$288.20M	-1.96	-113.23%	―	-41.87%	-165.76%
SERA	48 Neutral	$138.75M	-4.68	-47.69%	―	1.06%	22.41%
MDXH	44 Neutral	$169.78M	-5.67	-720.01%	―	21.68%	58.30%
STIM	44 Neutral	$135.60M	-2.18	-239.53%	―	78.62%	32.39%
XGN	43 Neutral	$134.85M	-5.56	-122.81%	―	14.08%	1.34%

Exagen Corporate Events

Exagen Announces Record 2025 Revenue and Strong Cash Position

On January 11, 2026, Exagen Inc. reported select preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, indicating record annual revenue of $66 million to $67 million, up 19% to 20% year over year, with fourth-quarter revenue projected at $16 million to $17 million, a 17% to 24% increase. The company highlighted continued momentum in its AVISE CTD franchise, with 2025 test volumes rising to 136,000 to 137,000, an 11% increase over 2024, and a trailing 12‑month average selling price of $441 to $445, at least $30 higher than the prior year, despite pricing headwinds in the second half. Year-end cash and cash equivalents improved to $32 million, about $10 million higher than at the end of 2024, underscoring stronger liquidity as Exagen ramps investment in scientific and commercial capabilities and rolls out enhancements to its AVISE platform, moves that reinforce its competitive positioning in autoimmune diagnostics while management continues to target a path to profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (XGN) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Exagen stock, see the XGN Stock Forecast page.