Exagen (XGN)
NASDAQ:XGN
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Exagen
(NASDAQ:XGN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(46.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—ongoing losses and cash burn—despite improving leverage and strong gross margins. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call showed operational progress and reaffirmed revenue guidance, while technicals are moderately constructive. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue, ASP and Margin Expansion
Sustained top-line growth, consistent ASP increases across 12 quarters and a high-50s gross margin indicate durable pricing power and product economics. Over 2–6 months this supports incremental profitability as volume and ASP continue to scale, improving long-term margin sustainability.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn & Losses
Despite revenue gains, the company still consumes cash and posts GAAP losses, meaning it cannot yet self-fund growth. Continued negative operating and free cash flow constrains reinvestment capacity and raises reliance on external capital over the medium term if losses persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue, ASP and Margin Expansion
Sustained top-line growth, consistent ASP increases across 12 quarters and a high-50s gross margin indicate durable pricing power and product economics. Over 2–6 months this supports incremental profitability as volume and ASP continue to scale, improving long-term margin sustainability.
Read all positive factors
Exagen Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Customer Category
Breaks down revenue across customer types (e.g., clinical labs and hospitals, commercial lab partners and distributors, direct-to-patient testing, and research or licensing agreements). For Exagen (XGN), this reveals whether growth is driven by broad consumer demand or concentrated partner contracts, highlights margin and cash-flow differences between channels, and flags concentration or reimbursement risks that could quickly affect results. Points to which channels are scalable and where management should focus sales, pricing, and payer negotiations.
Breaks down revenue across customer types (e.g., clinical labs and hospitals, commercial lab partners and distributors, direct-to-patient testing, and research or licensing agreements). For Exagen (XGN), this reveals whether growth is driven by broad consumer demand or concentrated partner contracts, highlights margin and cash-flow differences between channels, and flags concentration or reimbursement risks that could quickly affect results. Points to which channels are scalable and where management should focus sales, pricing, and payer negotiations.
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The Fly
The FlyExagen (XGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$109.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)584.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth20.55%
EPS Growth-4.63%
CountryUS
Employees209
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding24,159,840
10 Day Avg. Volume250,772
30 Day Avg. Volume584,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)7.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio-9.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside159.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$71.59M
Exagen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exagen Inc. develops and commercializes diagnostic testing solutions, leveraging its proprietary cell-bound complement activation products (CB-CAPs) technology under the AVISE brand throughout the United States. The company's mission is to equip r...
How the Company Makes Money
Exagen makes money primarily by performing its proprietary autoimmune diagnostic tests as a clinical laboratory service and recognizing revenue when those tests are ordered by healthcare providers and processed by Exagen. The core revenue stream i...
Exagen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational and commercial progress: record revenue (+12% YoY), double‑digit volume growth (+10% YoY), consistent ASP expansion (+6% YoY TTM) and improved adjusted EBITDA (14% improvement). The company also highlighted a growing pharma services backlog (> $5M), ongoing innovation (myositis target early 2027) and a healthy cash balance (~$22M). Offsetting risks include weather‑related volume loss in Q1, continued GAAP operating losses, reliance on lumpy prior‑period collections for ASP upside, an unresolved LCD timing risk, and the earlier loss of a client‑bill account. On balance the positives—organic growth, commercial momentum, ASP gains and pipeline advancement—outweigh the near‑term headwinds and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Revenue and Year‑over‑Year Growth
Reported record Q1 revenue of $17.3 million, a 12% increase versus prior year, and management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $70.0M to $73.0M.
Negative Updates
Weather‑Driven Volume Disruption
Severe winter storms in late January/early February reduced patient access and physician office days; management estimates losing ~1/3 of volume across two weeks (a couple thousand tests), a negative impact on Q1 volume that is not recoverable/catch‑up.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First Quarter Revenue and Year‑over‑Year Growth
Reported record Q1 revenue of $17.3 million, a 12% increase versus prior year, and management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $70.0M to $73.0M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $70.0–$73.0 million (midpoint assumes high‑single‑digit volume growth and low‑single‑digit ASP growth versus Q4‑2025 in‑period ASP of ≈$430), citing a strong Q1 that supports the outlook: Q1 revenue $17.3M (+12% YoY), test volume +10% YoY (mid‑30,000 quarterly run rate), trailing 12‑month ASP $444 (+6% YoY, +$25), gross margin 59% (up 360 bps sequentially), adjusted EBITDA loss $2.2M (14% improvement YoY), cash just under $22M, pharma services revenue ≈$300k with >$5M backlog, and >$900k collected on claims >360 days; they expect ASP to expand toward at least 50% of Medicare reimbursement (≈$600–$650) and gross margin to progress to the mid‑60s over time, while noting prior‑period collections and seasonality/RCM timing can be lumpy and AR‑driven cash use should normalize in H2.Exagen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 68.38M | 66.58M | 55.64M | 52.55M | 45.56M | 48.30M |
| Gross Profit | 39.88M | 38.80M | 33.11M | 29.46M | 21.35M | 27.71M |
| EBITDA | -12.91M | -13.46M | -11.14M | -19.15M | -43.66M | -23.10M |
| Net Income | -20.17M | -19.95M | -15.12M | -23.69M | -47.39M | -26.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.96M | 58.02M | 44.69M | 56.94M | 86.22M | 123.44M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.51M | 32.22M | 22.04M | 36.49M | 62.39M | 99.44M |
| Total Debt | 25.35M | 25.71M | 23.00M | 23.23M | 35.20M | 28.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 37.52M | 40.57M | 35.15M | 34.25M | 43.76M | 38.51M |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.43M | 17.45M | 9.54M | 22.69M | 42.46M | 84.94M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.13M | -14.27M | -13.79M | -15.29M | -36.46M | -22.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -13.37M | -13.63M | -13.28M | -14.46M | -32.14M | -20.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -747.00K | -626.00K | -515.00K | -804.00K | -4.32M | -2.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 24.44M | 24.43M | -663.00K | -10.63M | -489.00K | 64.68M |
Exagen Technical Analysis
Positive
3.08
Price Trends
3.73
Positive
3.52
Positive
6.09
Negative
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
54.99
Neutral
43.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.59, below the 50-day MA of 3.73, and below the 200-day MA of 6.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XGN.
Exagen Risk Analysis
Exagen disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exagen reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exagen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $344.98M | -4.90 | -46.74% | ― | 167.42% | -22.94% | |
54 Neutral | $628.49M | -8.32 | -55.89% | ― | -52.94% | 59.88% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $109.69M | -5.37 | -113.53% | ― | 20.55% | -4.63% | |
50 Neutral | $68.53M | -2.74 | -41.02% | ― | -50.43% | 30.93% | |
44 Neutral | $85.59M | -2.31 | -164.68% | ― | 69.52% | 58.15% | |
43 Neutral | $27.89M | -1.04 | 402.97% | ― | 17.42% | 42.75% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
XGN
Exagen
4.54
-2.43
-34.86%
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics
4.50
3.11
223.74%
MDXH
MDxHealth
0.54
-1.56
-74.14%
STIM
Neuronetics
1.23
-2.20
-64.14%
PRE
Prenetics Group
20.50
12.37
152.15%
SERA
Sera Prognostics
1.75
-0.12
-6.42%
Exagen Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Exagen Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Pay Package
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Exagen Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on June 9, 2026, at which shareholders elected two Class I directors, Tina S. Nova, Ph.D., and Scott Kahn, Ph.D., to three-year terms expiring at the 2029 annual meeting. Shareholders also r...
Executive/Board Changes
Exagen Announces Board Resignation and Committee Restructuring
Neutral
Apr 23, 2026
On April 17, 2026, Exagen Inc. announced that director Ana Hooker resigned from the Board and all its committees, including her role as chair of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and member of the Audit Committee, effective the sam...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.