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Exagen Inc (XGN)
NASDAQ:XGN

Exagen (XGN) AI Stock Analysis

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XG

Exagen

(NASDAQ:XGN)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲( 3.99% Upside)
Exagen's strengths in revenue growth and strategic initiatives are offset by significant challenges in profitability, high leverage, and cash flow issues. Technical indicators are positive, but valuation and financial health concerns limit the stock's attractiveness. Recent corporate events provide some financial stability, yet achieving profitability remains crucial for improving the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Exagen's first-quarter update was positive, as revenue beat consensus by 7%.
Financial Performance
Exagen's new credit facility enabled it to refinance its debt and provides additional capital for future needs.
Negative Factors
Profitability
Exagen aims to achieve cash flow breakeven at the end of 2025 with its current cash balance, protecting shareholder value.
Valuation
Shares currently trade at 2 times 2025 revenue, with some room for expansion.

Exagen (XGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Exagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionExagen Inc. develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States. It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyExagen Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests, primarily the AVISE® suite of tests. These tests are designed to help physicians diagnose and manage autoimmune diseases by providing detailed biomarker information. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service approach, where healthcare providers or patients are billed for each test performed. Exagen also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, which facilitate the integration of their tests into routine clinical practice and ensure reimbursement for their services. The company's earnings are influenced by the volume of tests performed, reimbursement rates, and its ability to expand its market presence and develop new diagnostic solutions.

Exagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Exagen shows positive revenue growth but struggles with profitability due to negative EBIT and net profit margins. The healthy gross profit margin of 59.3% indicates good cost control, but high leverage and declining equity pose risks.
Income Statement
61
Positive
Exagen's revenue growth has been positive, with a 2% increase from the previous annual report to the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company is struggling with profitability as evidenced by negative EBIT and net profit margins. The gross profit margin is healthy at 59.3% for the TTM, showing good control over cost of goods sold, but overall profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
53
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio has decreased to 15.9% in the TTM, showing reduced equity as a percentage of total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to continuous net losses. The financial position is weakened by declining equity and high liabilities.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Exagen's cash flow situation is challenging, with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. There is a lack of positive cash flow trends, and the company is reliant on external financing to manage its operations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
56.72M55.64M52.55M45.56M48.30M41.98M
Gross Profit
33.64M33.11M29.46M21.35M27.71M25.42M
EBIT
-14.00M-13.64M-22.84M-40.55M-24.07M-15.19M
EBITDA
-12.16M-11.14M-19.15M-43.11M-23.10M-13.65M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.51M-15.12M-23.69M-47.39M-26.85M-16.69M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.19M22.04M36.49M62.39M99.44M57.45M
Total Assets
40.29M44.69M56.94M86.22M123.44M78.38M
Total Debt
5.03M23.00M23.72M34.50M27.48M26.66M
Net Debt
-6.16M969.00K-12.77M-27.89M-71.96M-30.79M
Total Liabilities
33.89M35.15M34.25M43.76M38.51M36.54M
Stockholders Equity
6.40M9.54M22.69M42.46M84.94M41.84M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-15.45M-13.79M-15.29M-36.46M-22.64M-14.54M
Operating Cash Flow
-14.91M-13.28M-14.46M-32.14M-20.27M-14.08M
Investing Cash Flow
-536.00K-515.00K-804.00K-4.32M-2.42M-455.00K
Financing Cash Flow
-627.00K-663.00K-10.63M-489.00K64.68M-97.00K

Exagen Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5.77
Price Trends
50DMA
4.91
Positive
100DMA
4.38
Positive
200DMA
3.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Positive
RSI
51.78
Neutral
STOCH
46.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XGN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.12, above the 50-day MA of 4.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XGN.

Exagen Risk Analysis

Exagen disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exagen reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We maintain cash deposits in excess of federally insured limits. Adverse developments affecting financial institutions, including bank failures, could adversely affect our liquidity and financial performance. Q4, 2024
2.
Planned changes in the way that the FDA regulates tests designed and performed by laboratories like ours could result in delay or additional expense in offering our current tests and tests that we may develop in the future. Q4, 2024

Exagen Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
XGXGN
60
Neutral
$138.34M-117.50%1.78%22.46%
55
Neutral
$106.91M-1552.23%25.46%21.83%
53
Neutral
$5.24B3.07-43.58%2.80%16.87%-0.11%
52
Neutral
$50.58M138.92%64.15%41.65%
46
Neutral
$39.69M-1454.41%35.76%47.48%
43
Neutral
$79.87M-41.36%-44.17%12.77%
BNBNR
39
Underperform
$29.27M-51.22%-5.72%48.12%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XGN
Exagen
5.77
3.77
188.50%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.51
-0.23
-31.08%
MDXH
MDxHealth
2.09
-0.68
-24.55%
BNR
Burning Rock Biotech
3.10
-4.47
-59.05%
BDSX
Biodesix
0.40
-1.01
-71.63%
SERA
Sera Prognostics
1.92
-6.34
-76.76%

Exagen Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.15%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a positive outlook with record revenue growth, successful strategic initiatives, and progress in reimbursement strategies. However, challenges remain with gross margin pressures and increased operating expenses impacting profitability.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Exagen Inc. achieved record revenue of $15.5 million, representing an 8% increase compared to the first quarter of the previous year.
New Biomarker Launch
The launch of new biomarkers is driving volume growth, with a 6% increase over the previous quarter and an anticipated $90 increase in ASP by year-end.
Successful ALJ Hearing
Exagen won its first Administrative Law Judge hearing regarding a Medicare Advantage denial, setting a positive precedent for future appeals.
TRICARE Positive Medical Policy
Secured a positive medical policy with TRICARE, enhancing reimbursement and validation of clinical utility.
New Credit Facility
Established a new credit facility with Perceptive Advisors, providing increased borrowing capacity and financial flexibility.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Decline
The gross margin slightly decreased from 59.6% to 58.9% due to transitory headwinds and the impact of partial quarter biomarker revenue.
Increased Operating Expenses
Operating expenses rose by 7.5% year-over-year, driven by increased R&D and SG&A costs.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.5 million, higher than the $2 million loss in the first quarter of the previous year.
Company Guidance
During Exagen Inc.'s Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance indicating a strong start to the year with record revenue of $15.5 million, an 8% increase compared to Q1 2024, and a trailing 12-month average selling price (ASP) of $419 per test, reflecting a $15 increase due to new biomarkers. The company expects full-year revenue of at least $65 million and aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2025. Exagen highlighted several strategic initiatives, including winning their first administrative law judge (ALJ) hearing to bolster reimbursement efforts, securing positive medical policy with TRICARE, and anticipating a $90 ASP increase by year-end. Additionally, the company is focused on expanding its test volume, which grew by 6% over Q4 2024, and continuing the development of new seronegative markers expected to launch around the end of the year, potentially increasing sensitivity for rheumatoid arthritis patients by 8%. Exagen also improved its financial position with a new credit facility from Perceptive Advisors, offering access to up to $50 million for future growth, including up to $30 million for strategic transactions.

Exagen Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Exagen Closes Public Offering, Raises $20.2 Million
Positive
May 9, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Exagen Inc. successfully closed its public offering of 3,350,000 shares of common stock at $5.25 per share, raising approximately $18.6 million in net proceeds. The offering, which included the full exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase an additional 502,500 shares, resulted in gross proceeds of about $20.2 million, enhancing Exagen’s financial position and potentially strengthening its market presence in the autoimmune diagnostics industry.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Exagen Enters Underwriting Agreement for Stock Offering
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Exagen Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Canaccord Genuity LLC for the issuance and sale of 3,350,000 shares of its common stock at $5.25 per share. The offering, expected to close on May 9, 2025, aims to raise approximately $16.2 million in net proceeds, which will be used for working capital and potential acquisitions. This move is part of Exagen’s strategy to enhance its financial position and explore growth opportunities in the autoimmune diagnostics market.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Exagen Secures $75 Million Credit Agreement
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

On April 25, 2025, Exagen Inc. entered into a Credit Agreement with Perceptive Credit Holdings IV, LP, securing a senior secured delayed draw term loan facility of up to $75 million, with an initial $25 million tranche funded to refinance existing debt and extend the maturity. This strategic financial move is aimed at strengthening Exagen’s balance sheet and providing growth capital, allowing the company to further its leadership in autoimmune testing solutions and enhance patient care. The agreement includes additional tranches contingent on revenue and business development milestones, with the loan secured by Exagen’s assets and accompanied by a warrant to purchase shares of Exagen’s common stock.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.