Sera Prognostics (SERA)
NASDAQ:SERA
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Sera Prognostics
(NASDAQ:SERA)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(8.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (minimal revenue, negative gross profit, persistent losses and cash burn) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are the earnings-call-driven positives—strong PRIME clinical results and a stated cash runway through 2028—which improve the near-term risk profile but do not yet resolve the commercialization and revenue-scaling gap.
Positive Factors
Pivotal Clinical Evidence
The PRIME randomized trial provides RCT-level evidence that PreTRM plus a preventive pathway reduces extreme preterm births and NICU use. This durable clinical proof materially strengthens the test’s medical utility and long-term payer/clinical adoption case, lowering evidence barriers to coverage.
Negative Factors
Minimal and Volatile Revenue
Revenue at a few tens of thousands annually is insufficient to support fixed commercialization costs or prove unit economics. Persistent immaterial sales make scaling margins and forecasting cash flows difficult, prolonging reliance on financing while adoption milestones are achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Pivotal Clinical Evidence
The PRIME randomized trial provides RCT-level evidence that PreTRM plus a preventive pathway reduces extreme preterm births and NICU use. This durable clinical proof materially strengthens the test’s medical utility and long-term payer/clinical adoption case, lowering evidence barriers to coverage.
Read all positive factors
Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$84.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)40.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth1.06%
EPS Growth22.41%
CountryUS
Employees63
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.16
Shares Outstanding38,176,090
10 Day Avg. Volume55,279
30 Day Avg. Volume40,220
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1735.84
P/FCF Ratio-5.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue998.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-974.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.27
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.10M
Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneou...
How the Company Makes Money
Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily from (1) diagnostic testing and related services and (2) research and development collaborations and grants.
1) Diagnostic testing revenue (clinical test volume): The company’s commercial model centers...
Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong clinical and strategic progress anchored by PRIME publication (demonstrating large reductions in extreme preterm birth and NICU use), expanded state/payer engagement, leadership hires, and a healthy cash runway through 2028. However, commercial revenue remains extremely modest and volatile (Q4 revenue down ~58%), the company is still unprofitable, and broader payer coverage and real-world adoption are required to convert clinical success into meaningful revenue. On balance, the material clinical evidence, growing partner programs, and multi-year cash runway materially de-risk near-term funding and enable commercialization efforts, outweighing the current low revenue base and execution risks.Positive Updates
PRIME Pivotal Study Published with Strong Clinical Outcomes
PRIME was accepted for publication (published January 2026) and presented at SMFM; reported 56% fewer babies born before 32 weeks and 32% fewer babies born before 35 weeks versus control, reinforcing RCT-level evidence that biomarker-based identification plus a preventive pathway can reduce preterm birth.
Negative Updates
Very Low and Fluctuating Revenue — Q4 Decline
Q4 revenue was $10,000, down from $24,000 prior-year quarter (≈-58.3%), underscoring very modest commercial traction in the quarter and point-to-point volatility in early commercialization.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
PRIME Pivotal Study Published with Strong Clinical Outcomes
PRIME was accepted for publication (published January 2026) and presented at SMFM; reported 56% fewer babies born before 32 weeks and 32% fewer babies born before 35 weeks versus control, reinforcing RCT-level evidence that biomarker-based identification plus a preventive pathway can reduce preterm birth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided toward disciplined, measured commercialization in 2026 with several specific targets and metrics: PRIME publication showed a 56% reduction in births <32 weeks, 32% fewer <35 weeks and a ~20% reduction in NICU admissions; commercially Sera was in active discussions across 13 states in 2025 (with 10 payers) and expects to expand to 15–17 states (covering ~58–60% of U.S. births) while doubling payer engagements and growing partner programs from 2 live pilots to 5–7 by year-end 2026; provider outreach has resulted in coverage request submissions from providers in 4 states and 10+ additional providers in process; financially Q4 revenue was $10k (Q4 2024: $24k) and FY2025 revenue was $81k (2024: $77k), Q4 operating expenses $9.0M (Q4 2024: $9.4M) with R&D $3.2M and SG&A $5.7M, Q4 net loss $7.9M (Q4 2024: $8.6M), FY total expenses $36.6M (2024: $36.7M) with FY R&D $13.2M (2024: $14.7M), FY SG&A $23.3M (2024: $21.9M), FY net loss $31.9M (2024: $32.9M); the company ended 12/31/2025 with $95.8M cash and believes this provides runway through 2028, is budgeting cash OpEx in the low-$30M area for the year, plans EU CE submission in the coming months, and has reestablished an ATM for optional financing.Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 81.00K | 77.00K | 306.00K | 268.00K | 82.00K |
| Gross Profit | -83.00K | -5.00K | 96.00K | 75.00K | 45.00K |
| EBITDA | -35.56M | -32.04M | -35.29M | -43.37M | -33.60M |
| Net Income | -31.93M | -32.90M | -36.24M | -44.19M | -35.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 101.93M | 72.58M | 95.44M | 116.33M | 147.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.20M | 46.24M | 49.08M | 82.70M | 105.11M |
| Total Debt | 2.34M | 840.00K | 1.86M | 2.83M | 128.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 26.52M | 24.77M | 25.28M | 17.39M | 8.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 75.41M | 47.80M | 70.16M | 98.94M | 138.56M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -26.35M | -15.29M | -27.32M | -35.40M | -32.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -25.62M | -14.19M | -27.19M | -34.61M | -31.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.50M | 11.74M | 438.00K | 5.55M | -82.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 54.03M | 2.61M | 752.00K | 5.00K | 159.59M |
Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.30
Price Trends
2.31
Negative
2.80
Negative
2.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
58.27
Neutral
79.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.97, below the 50-day MA of 2.31, and below the 200-day MA of 2.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SERA.
Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis
Sera Prognostics disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $321.42M | -3.79 | -36.02% | ― | 159.45% | 8.59% | |
57 Neutral | $173.23M | -2.82 | -9.93% | ― | 5.44% | 72.17% | |
56 Neutral | $143.24M | -1.46 | -302.55% | ― | 22.29% | 31.93% | |
52 Neutral | $452.23M | -4.66 | -52.04% | ― | -41.87% | -165.76% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $84.55M | -4.40 | -47.69% | ― | 1.06% | 22.41% | |
47 Neutral | $26.61M | -1.17 | 76.82% | ― | 14.48% | 36.83% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Sera Prognostics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Sera Prognostics Unveils Strategy to Redefine Pregnancy Care
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
On January 8, 2026, Sera Prognostics posted a new investor presentation outlining its strategy to “redefine” pregnancy care through its PreTRM test, a clinically validated, blood-based proteomic assay that predicts spontaneous preterm ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.