Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $85.64M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 102.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 0.93%
• EPS Growth: 13.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 37,094,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 115,089
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 102,076
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 889.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -425.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.02
• 1Y Price Target: $2.00
• Price Target Upside: -15.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-15.97% Downside)

Sera Prognostics' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant losses and negative cash flows. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further weighing down the score. Valuation metrics are unfavorable due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. While the earnings call provided some positive strategic insights, these are not enough to offset the financial and technical challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Position and Financial Stability

The company has approximately $120M in cash, expected to provide needed funding into 2028.

Commercialization and Market Opportunity

The commercialization of the PreTRM test is seen as a significant opportunity ahead for the company.

Medicaid Pilot Programs

Pilot programs in two Medicaid plans are progressing and are seeing notable traction in two states with above-average preterm birth rates.

Negative Factors

Guideline Inclusion and Market Penetration

Gaining Medicaid coverage before PreTRM's inclusion in guidelines could provide an attractive opportunity for SERA, as Medicaid represents roughly half of the total addressable market for PreTRM.

Revenue Traction Timeline

Significant material revenue traction is several years away, suggesting a longer-term investment horizon.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics makes money primarily through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. These tests are designed to predict the risk of pregnancy complications, thereby enabling healthcare professionals to take proactive measures in managing patient care. The company's revenue model is centered around the commercialization and distribution of its flagship product, the PreTRM Test, which assesses the risk of preterm birth. Additionally, Sera Prognostics may generate revenue through strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as through research collaborations and licensing agreements for its technologies. These partnerships can provide additional financial resources and market access, further supporting the company's growth and innovation in the maternal-fetal health sector.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics shows revenue growth but remains unprofitable with significant negative profit margins. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, yet persistent negative cash flows and profitability metrics indicate challenges in achieving financial sustainability.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics shows revenue growth with a 49.35% increase in the TTM period, but remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin of -28685.22%. Gross profit margin improved slightly to 8.70% in the TTM, indicating some operational efficiency. However, the persistent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing challenges in scaling to profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0009 in the TTM. The equity ratio stands at 80.20%, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative due to continued losses, highlighting challenges in generating shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative, though it has improved slightly by 4.02% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company struggles to convert its earnings into cash, which could affect liquidity and operational flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	108.00K	77.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K
Gross Profit	-226.00K	-5.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K
EBITDA	-31.85M	-32.04M	-35.29M	-42.91M	-33.60M	-17.11M
Net Income	-32.73M	-32.90M	-36.24M	-44.25M	-36.23M	-21.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	111.83M	72.58M	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.16M	46.24M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M
Total Debt	351.00K	840.00K	1.86M	2.31M	128.00K	8.67M
Total Liabilities	23.60M	24.77M	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	140.37M
Stockholders Equity	88.23M	47.80M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	-125.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.95M	-14.24M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-26.28M	-14.19M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.28M	11.74M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K
Financing Cash Flow	53.91M	2.61M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.56, below the 50-day MA of 2.51, and below the 200-day MA of 4.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XGN	61 Neutral	$212.34M	―	-87.94%	―	3.89%	7.92%
ACRS	55 Neutral	$193.91M	―	-101.41%	―	-47.56%	-65.54%
MDXH	53 Neutral	$143.54M	―	-1552.23%	―	22.56%	41.62%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.77B	-0.12	-39.78%	2.21%	22.68%	-1.42%
VNRX	47 Neutral	$72.41M	―	138.92%	―	35.10%	39.15%
BDSX	44 Neutral	$59.64M	―	-219.68%	―	25.70%	39.23%
SERA	42 Neutral	$85.64M	―	-44.24%	―	0.93%	13.99%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Elects New Board Members at Annual Meeting

On June 5, 2025, Sera Prognostics held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 66.2% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, Jane F. Barlow, M.D. and Mansoor Raza Mirza, M.D. were elected to the Board of Directors for a three-year term, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.