Sera Prognostics (SERA)
NASDAQ:SERA
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Sera Prognostics
(NASDAQ:SERA)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-34.78% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (minimal and declining revenue, negative gross profit, and ongoing cash burn) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides partial support through a long cash runway and a clear cost-reduction/commercialization plan, but near-term revenue visibility remains limited, and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong cash runway & cost reduction
A reported $86.8M cash position combined with a planned ~ $10M annual expense reduction materially extends runway into 2029. That multi-year liquidity cushion gives management time to execute commercialization, build payer evidence, and pursue coverage without immediate financing or acute dilution.
Negative Factors
Very small, declining revenue
Revenue remains immaterial and declined sharply year-over-year, preventing economies of scale and keeping per-test costs elevated. Persistently tiny sales limit reinvestment capacity, slow margin recovery, and leave the company dependent on contract wins or financing to reach sustainable operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash runway & cost reduction
A reported $86.8M cash position combined with a planned ~ $10M annual expense reduction materially extends runway into 2029. That multi-year liquidity cushion gives management time to execute commercialization, build payer evidence, and pursue coverage without immediate financing or acute dilution.
Read all positive factors
Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$68.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)40.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth-50.43%
EPS Growth30.93%
CountryUS
Employees63
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.65
Shares Outstanding38,190,968
10 Day Avg. Volume55,279
30 Day Avg. Volume40,220
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1735.84
P/FCF Ratio-5.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.15K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-601.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.02
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$466.67K
Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneou...
How the Company Makes Money
Sera Prognostics primarily generates revenue by commercializing its proprietary pregnancy diagnostics, chiefly the PreTRM test. The company’s revenue model is centered on (1) clinical testing revenue from providing the test (and related reporting/...
Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong strategic progress on commercialization, payer engagement, media awareness, scientific publications and a clear plan to reduce operating expense that together support a multi-year commercial opportunity. However, near-term financials remain weak — Q1 revenue fell to $14k (down ~63% YoY), a continuing net loss (~$8.4M) and management expects 2026 revenue to be modest and uneven while payer coverage and broader adoption timelines play out. Given meaningful operational and evidence milestones but limited near-term revenue visibility, the tone is cautiously constructive but balanced by financial and timing risks.Positive Updates
Strong cash runway and cost-reduction plan
Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities of $86.8 million at March 31, 2026; company expects to reduce base operating expenses by nearly $10 million annually, extending runway and management believes cash is sufficient to fund operations through 2029.
Negative Updates
Sharp YoY revenue decline
Revenue for Q1 2026 was $14,000 versus $38,000 in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 63% year-over-year, and management characterized revenue as modest and uneven given targeted commercialization timing.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash runway and cost-reduction plan
Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale securities of $86.8 million at March 31, 2026; company expects to reduce base operating expenses by nearly $10 million annually, extending runway and management believes cash is sufficient to fund operations through 2029.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call Sera provided granular financial and operational guidance: Q1 revenue was $14,000 (vs. $38,000 YoY), operating expenses $9.4M (vs. $9.3M), R&D $3.0M (vs. $3.3M), SG&A $6.3M (vs. $5.9M), net loss $8.4M (vs. $8.2M), and cash and equivalents were $86.8M as of March 31, 2026. Management expects 2026 revenue to remain modest and uneven (a “low single‑digit thousand” test volume for the year is not unreasonable), will shift spend from R&D toward commercialization/medical activities, and expects to reduce annual operating expenses by nearly $10M (with most savings realized in 2027+). Commercial progress includes 3 live partner programs (the Q1 launch expands reach to >350 providers across 3 states), a goal of 5–7 partner programs with roughly one launch per quarter, active contracting with additional partners, and engagement with 13 payers across 15 states (up from 10 payers/13 states). They reiterated a pilot Medicaid program timeline of ~9–12 months to recruit, ~4–5 months for deliveries, several months to collect outcomes, and roughly ~2 years to a state coverage decision (potentially beginning in early 2027), and affirmed that current resources should fund operations and capex through 2029.Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 57.00K | 81.00K | 77.00K | 306.00K | 268.00K | 82.00K |
| Gross Profit | -109.00K | -83.00K | -5.00K | 96.00K | 75.00K | 45.00K |
| EBITDA | -32.37M | -35.56M | -32.04M | -35.29M | -43.37M | -33.60M |
| Net Income | -32.14M | -31.93M | -32.90M | -36.24M | -44.19M | -35.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 93.54M | 101.93M | 72.58M | 95.44M | 116.33M | 147.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.40M | 39.20M | 46.24M | 49.08M | 82.70M | 105.11M |
| Total Debt | 2.50M | 2.34M | 840.00K | 1.86M | 2.83M | 128.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 25.92M | 26.52M | 24.77M | 25.28M | 17.39M | 8.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 67.62M | 75.41M | 47.80M | 70.16M | 98.94M | 138.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.57M | -26.35M | -15.29M | -27.32M | -35.40M | -32.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -26.84M | -25.62M | -14.19M | -27.19M | -34.61M | -31.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 25.29M | -28.50M | 11.74M | 438.00K | 5.55M | -82.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 504.00K | 54.03M | 2.61M | 752.00K | 5.00K | 159.59M |
Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis
Negative
2.30
Price Trends
1.98
Negative
2.39
Negative
2.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
42.45
Neutral
38.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.86, above the 50-day MA of 1.98, and below the 200-day MA of 2.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.
Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis
Sera Prognostics disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $145.26M | -4.49 | -2101.40% | ― | 29.05% | 29.88% | |
54 Neutral | $632.68M | -6.09 | -55.89% | ― | -52.94% | 59.88% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $260.34M | -2.25 | -36.02% | ― | 201.72% | -11.02% | |
45 Neutral | $175.65M | -2.82 | -9.93% | ― | 4.69% | 84.60% | |
44 Neutral | $68.92M | -3.04 | -41.02% | ― | -50.43% | 30.93% | |
44 Neutral | $20.74M | -1.04 | 76.82% | ― | 88.49% | 21.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.