Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $118.75M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 42.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: 22.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 37,094,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 39,068
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 42,670
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3505.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01K
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.63K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.90
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-10.98% Downside)

Sera Prognostics' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and significant losses. Technical analysis provides a slightly better outlook but remains weak. Valuation metrics are unfavorable due to negative earnings and lack of dividends. Strategic initiatives mentioned in the earnings call offer some hope but are overshadowed by financial challenges.

Positive Factors

Medicaid Pilot Programs

The Medicaid pilot programs represent a strategic initiative that could enhance payer coverage and drive adoption, potentially leading to increased revenue and market penetration in the long term.

Leadership Appointments

Strategic leadership appointments can strengthen the company's direction and operational efficiency, potentially improving execution of its commercialization strategy and long-term growth prospects.

Cash Reserves

Strong cash reserves provide financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and weather financial challenges, supporting long-term strategic goals and operational stability.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates challenges in market adoption and sales execution, which could hinder the company's ability to achieve sustainable growth and profitability.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow can strain financial resources, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and potentially leading to liquidity issues if not addressed.

High Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses without corresponding revenue growth can erode margins and profitability, posing a challenge to achieving financial sustainability.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in maternal-fetal health diagnostics. The company focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative blood tests designed to predict the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm birth and other complications. Its flagship product, the SeraTest, leverages advanced proteomics to provide healthcare providers with actionable insights for better management of pregnancies, ultimately aiming to improve maternal and infant health outcomes.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests, including the SeraTest, to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where it charges for each test performed. Additionally, Sera may engage in partnerships with healthcare organizations and pharmaceutical companies for research collaborations and the development of new tests, which can provide additional revenue streams. Insurance reimbursements also play a significant role in the company's revenue, as many diagnostic tests are covered by health insurance plans, facilitating broader adoption of their services. Furthermore, ongoing investments in R&D to expand their product offerings can lead to new revenue opportunities in the future.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and substantial losses impacting profitability. Despite a low debt-to-equity ratio, the negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight ongoing operational difficulties.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics has experienced declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -12.04% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company shows significant negative margins, including a net profit margin of -303.06% and an EBIT margin of -302.91%, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. These figures highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.004, suggesting minimal leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative at -45.86%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 75.99%, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow growth rate of -2.70% in the TTM, indicating deteriorating cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -1.11, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, indicating some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	95.00K	77.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K
Gross Profit	-59.00K	-5.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K
EBITDA	-33.12M	-32.04M	-35.29M	-43.37M	-33.60M	-17.11M
Net Income	-32.63M	-32.90M	-36.24M	-44.19M	-35.01M	-19.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.13M	72.58M	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.30M	46.24M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M
Total Debt	2.45M	840.00K	1.86M	2.83M	128.00K	8.57M
Total Liabilities	25.94M	24.77M	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	11.86M
Stockholders Equity	82.18M	47.80M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	2.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.22M	-15.29M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-25.76M	-14.19M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.01M	11.74M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K
Financing Cash Flow	54.17M	2.61M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.17, above the 50-day MA of 3.15, and above the 200-day MA of 3.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNR	55 Neutral	$121.79M	-6.04	-22.66%	―	5.33%	75.52%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BDSX	48 Neutral	$60.46M	-1.42	-302.55%	―	22.29%	31.93%
ACRS	48 Neutral	$255.66M	-1.72	-113.23%	―	-41.87%	-165.76%
PRE	45 Neutral	$172.09M	―	-23.93%	―	159.45%	8.59%
VNRX	42 Neutral	$40.66M	-1.46	―	―	14.48%	36.83%
SERA	41 Neutral	$118.75M	―	-47.69%	―	1.06%	22.41%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a health diagnostics company headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, specializes in precision pregnancy care by offering innovative biomarker information to improve maternal and neonatal health. The company has recently reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting significant progress in payer initiatives and strategic leadership appointments.

Sera Prognostics Highlights Strategy at Investment Conference

On September 5, 2025, Sera Prognostics presented a new investor presentation at the H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference. The company highlighted its strategic focus on commercializing the PreTRM® test, supported by a strong financial position with $108.5 million in cash and marketable securities. Sera Prognostics aims to address the significant economic burden of preterm births in the U.S., which account for a substantial portion of neonatal healthcare costs. The company is progressing with Medicaid engagement and anticipates a commercial inflection point as it continues to expand its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (SERA) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sera Prognostics stock, see the SERA Stock Forecast page.