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Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA)
:SERA
US Market

Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

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Sera Prognostics

(NASDAQ:SERA)

36Underperform
Sera Prognostics is grappling with financial instability and operational challenges, reflected in its weak financial scores and negative valuation metrics. Technical analysis suggests bearish sentiment, while earnings call insights reveal a mix of strategic initiatives and financial setbacks. The overall score is primarily impacted by the company's financial difficulties and market performance.
Positive Factors
Clinical Study
The company's pivotal pre-term birth diagnostic study, PRIME, was stopped early by the DSMB due to favorable efficacy.
Commercialization Strategy
SERA's commercialization plans for its PreTRM test are focused on addressing a high unmet need, with impactful clinical data supporting its potential.
Market Opportunity
The market cap of $150M is considered attractive for investors with a longer-term perspective, given the >$2B US total addressable market and a differentiated test.
Negative Factors
Revenue Forecast
Revenue for 2024 is trimmed to $120K on low PreTRM take up ahead of reimbursement.
Revenue Performance
The financial results were uneventful with revenue of $29K versus the expected $75K.

Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
How the Company Makes MoneySera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its PreTRM Test to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. The test is marketed as a tool for early risk assessment, allowing healthcare professionals to identify and manage at-risk pregnancies more effectively. Revenue is also supported by partnerships with insurance companies and healthcare payers, which may cover the cost of the test for eligible patients. Additionally, Sera Prognostics collaborates with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies to explore further applications of their diagnostic technology, potentially opening additional revenue streams through licensing or strategic alliances.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges. The income statement reveals negative margins due to high costs relative to revenue. The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with low debt, yet return on equity is negative due to losses. Cash flow analysis highlights negative cash flows, reflecting operational struggles.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $25,000 in 2020 to $94,000 in TTM. However, the company faces significant challenges with profitability. The gross profit margin is negative, indicating that costs of goods sold are higher than revenues. Net profit margins are also deeply negative, reflecting substantial net losses. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, pointing to operational inefficiencies and high expenses relative to revenue.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a relatively strong equity position with a positive stockholders' equity of $54.65 million in the TTM, compared to significant deficits in earlier years. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, reflecting limited reliance on debt financing, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, indicating a reduction in equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting the company's struggle to generate cash from operations. Despite some improvements in free cash flow over the TTM period, the overall cash flow picture highlights cash burn issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, underscoring persistent operational challenges. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, suggesting that the company is not converting its net earnings into cash effectively.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
306.00K268.00K82.00K25.00K36.00K
Gross Profit
96.00K75.00K45.00K14.00K18.00K
EBIT
-39.82M-45.65M-35.40M-17.97M-16.56M
EBITDA
-35.29M-42.91M-33.60M-17.11M-13.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-36.24M-44.25M-36.23M-21.61M-20.44M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
49.08M82.70M105.11M13.53M21.39M
Total Assets
95.44M116.33M147.03M14.80M23.26M
Total Debt
1.86M2.31M128.00K8.67M9.31M
Net Debt
-2.02M-27.57M-58.80M-4.86M-12.07M
Total Liabilities
25.28M17.39M8.46M140.37M129.88M
Stockholders Equity
70.16M98.94M138.56M-125.57M-106.62M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-27.32M-35.40M-32.94M-17.02M-19.43M
Operating Cash Flow
-27.19M-34.61M-31.64M-16.87M-19.32M
Investing Cash Flow
438.00K5.55M-82.56M-149.00K-6.00K
Financing Cash Flow
752.00K5.00K159.59M9.16M33.05M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.94
Price Trends
50DMA
3.75
Negative
100DMA
5.28
Negative
200DMA
6.29
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Positive
RSI
32.01
Neutral
STOCH
6.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.27, below the 50-day MA of 3.75, and below the 200-day MA of 6.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis

Sera Prognostics disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
XGXGN
61
Neutral
$76.25M-93.78%5.89%38.12%
52
Neutral
$5.28B3.75-42.72%2.86%17.70%2.03%
51
Neutral
$85.63M-345.31%28.29%23.11%
46
Neutral
$149.43M-84.46%-40.09%-18.67%
42
Neutral
$77.03M-337.30%45.30%45.67%
36
Underperform
$110.37M-55.78%-74.84%14.63%
29
Underperform
$48.37M138.92%59.10%37.59%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SERA
Sera Prognostics
2.93
-7.70
-72.44%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.49
-0.39
-44.32%
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics
1.38
0.07
5.34%
MDXH
MDxHealth
1.74
-1.23
-41.41%
XGN
Exagen
6.14
4.76
344.93%
BDSX
Biodesix
0.53
-0.78
-59.54%

Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -28.99%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as the successful PRIME study results and strong fundraising efforts, as well as plans for commercial expansion and strategic partnerships. However, these were balanced by challenges such as declining revenue and increased expenses, resulting in a neutral overall sentiment.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Results from PRIME Study
The PRIME study, conducted at 19 locations with 5,018 patients, showed a 25% reduction in neonatal mortality and morbidity index, an 18% reduction in neonatal length of hospital stay, and a 20% reduction in NICU admissions.
Successful Fundraising and Strong Balance Sheet
The company successfully raised $57.5 million in a public follow-on offering, securing a cash runway through 2028, with cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities at $68.2 million as of December 31, 2024.
Expansion Plans and New Board Appointment
Plans to expand commercialization efforts in the US and explore international expansion, particularly in the European Union. Appointment of Jeff Elliott to the Board of Directors, bringing expertise from the medical diagnostics industry.
Focus on Medicaid and Public Health Partnerships
Targeting states with high preterm birth rates for Medicaid partnerships to demonstrate cost savings and impact, with specific focus on Nevada and Louisiana.
Negative Updates
Decline in Fourth Quarter Revenue
Net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $24,000, down from $41,000 for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Increased Operating Expenses and Net Loss
Operating expenses increased by 6% to $9.4 million, and the net loss for the quarter was $8.6 million compared to $7.9 million in the same period a year ago.
Company Guidance
During the Sera Prognostics conference call reviewing the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, the company shared several key financial and operational metrics and goals. Net revenue for the fourth quarter was reported at $24,000, a decrease from $41,000 in the same period of 2023, and total operating expenses increased by 6% to $9.4 million. The net loss for the quarter was $8.6 million, up from $7.9 million a year ago. The company highlighted the results of its PRIME study, which demonstrated a 25% reduction in neonatal mortality and morbidity, an 18% reduction in neonatal hospital stay, and a 20% reduction in NICU admissions. Sera Prognostics plans to further its commercialization efforts, with cash operating expenses expected to range between $30 million and $35 million in 2025, leveraging recent capital from a $57.5 million public offering. The company also discussed its strategy for achieving guideline inclusion, focusing on publishing more data, providing real-world evidence, and driving clinical adoption. Looking ahead, Sera plans to expand its commercial operations, including potential international expansion and further investment in its pipeline products.

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sera Prognostics Announces $50 Million Public Offering
Positive
Feb 12, 2025

On February 10, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced a public offering of its Class A common stock and pre-funded warrants, expecting to raise approximately $50 million. The proceeds are intended to enhance U.S. commercial infrastructure, prepare for EU expansion, and support studies for the PreTRM test, with a potential FDA submission for broader approval.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.