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Sera Prognostics (SERA)
NASDAQ:SERA
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Sera Prognostics
(NASDAQ:SERA)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲( 4.17% Upside)
Positive Factors
Commercialization
The company has a significant opportunity ahead with the commercialization of its PreTRM test.
Guideline Inclusion
Guideline inclusion is a critical mid-term catalyst and SERA plans to publish PRIME with 2-3 additional publications which should enhance PreTRM's profile for guideline inclusion.
Medicaid Coverage
Gaining Medicaid coverage before PreTRM's inclusion in guidelines could provide an attractive opportunity for SERA, as Medicaid represents roughly half of the total addressable market for PreTRM.
Negative Factors
Investment Horizon
The market cap of $150M is considered attractive for investors with a longer-term perspective, given the >$2B US total addressable market and a differentiated test.
Revenue Traction
Significant material revenue traction is several years away, suggesting a longer-term investment horizon.
Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$79.87M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)124.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-44.17%
EPS Growth12.77%
CountryUS
Employees63
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength43
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.20
Shares Outstanding36,705,025
10 Day Avg. Volume194,332
30 Day Avg. Volume124,754
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-8.95
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSera Prognostics (SERA) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of innovative diagnostic tests that predict the risk of premature birth. By leveraging advanced proteomic technology, Sera Prognostics aims to improve maternal and neonatal health by providing physicians with critical information to manage pregnancies more effectively. Their core product, the PreTRM Test, is designed to assess a mother's risk of preterm birth, enabling targeted interventions that can improve outcomes for both mothers and babies.
How the Company Makes MoneySera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its PreTRM Test to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. The test is marketed as a tool for early risk assessment, allowing healthcare professionals to identify and manage at-risk pregnancies more effectively. Revenue is also supported by partnerships with insurance companies and healthcare payers, which may cover the cost of the test for eligible patients. Additionally, Sera Prognostics collaborates with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies to explore further applications of their diagnostic technology, potentially opening additional revenue streams through licensing or strategic alliances.
Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges. The income statement reveals negative margins due to high costs relative to revenue. The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with low debt, yet return on equity is negative due to losses. Cash flow analysis highlights negative cash flows, reflecting operational struggles.Income Statement
Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $25,000 in 2020 to $94,000 in TTM. However, the company faces significant challenges with profitability. The gross profit margin is negative, indicating that costs of goods sold are higher than revenues. Net profit margins are also deeply negative, reflecting substantial net losses. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, pointing to operational inefficiencies and high expenses relative to revenue.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a relatively strong equity position with a positive stockholders' equity of $54.65 million in the TTM, compared to significant deficits in earlier years. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, reflecting limited reliance on debt financing, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, indicating a reduction in equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting the company's struggle to generate cash from operations. Despite some improvements in free cash flow over the TTM period, the overall cash flow picture highlights cash burn issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, underscoring persistent operational challenges. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, suggesting that the company is not converting its net earnings into cash effectively.35
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 94.00K | 306.00K | 268.00K | 82.00K | 25.00K | 36.00K | Gross Profit |
| -736.00K | 96.00K | 75.00K | 45.00K | 14.00K | 18.00K | EBIT |
| -35.94M | -39.82M | -45.65M | -35.40M | -17.97M | -16.56M | EBITDA |
| -31.24M | -35.29M | -42.91M | -33.60M | -17.11M | -13.60M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -32.24M | -36.24M | -44.25M | -36.23M | -21.61M | -20.44M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 21.39M | 49.08M | 82.70M | 105.11M | 13.53M | 21.39M | Total Assets |
| 0.00 | 95.44M | 116.33M | 147.03M | 14.80M | 23.26M | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 1.86M | 2.31M | 128.00K | 8.67M | 9.31M | Net Debt |
| 21.39M | -2.02M | -27.57M | -58.80M | -4.86M | -12.07M | Total Liabilities |
| 0.00 | 25.28M | 17.39M | 8.46M | 140.37M | 129.88M | Stockholders Equity |
| 10.96M | 70.16M | 98.94M | 138.56M | -125.57M | -106.62M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -15.75M | -27.32M | -35.40M | -32.94M | -17.02M | -19.43M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -14.69M | -27.19M | -34.61M | -31.64M | -16.87M | -19.32M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 4.73M | 438.00K | 5.55M | -82.56M | -149.00K | -6.00K | Financing Cash Flow |
| 2.99M | 752.00K | 5.00K | 159.59M | 9.16M | 33.05M |
Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis
Negative
1.92
Price Trends
3.16
Negative
4.37
Negative
5.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
23.82
Positive
6.38
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.49, below the 50-day MA of 3.16, and below the 200-day MA of 5.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.
Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis
Sera Prognostics disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Artificial intelligence presents risks and challenges that can impact our business including by posing security risks to our confidential information, proprietary information, and personal data. Q3, 2024
2.
Our internal information technology systems, or those of any of our third party service providers, or potential future collaborators, may fail or suffer security or data privacy breaches or other unauthorized or improper access to, use of, or destruction of our proprietary or confidential data, employee data or other personal data, which could result in regulatory enforcement, additional costs, loss of revenue, significant liabilities, harm to our brand and material disruption of our operations. Q3, 2024
3.
Some of our products and services rely heavily on access to internal and external databases, and loss of access to data or such databases could materially harm our business. Q3, 2024
Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $130.26M | ― | -117.50% | ― | 1.78% | 22.46% | |
55 Neutral | $106.91M | ― | -1552.23% | ― | 25.46% | 21.83% | |
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.06 | -43.57% | 2.81% | 16.81% | -0.12% | |
52 Neutral | $50.58M | ― | 138.92% | ― | 64.15% | 41.65% | |
46 Neutral | $146.18M | ― | -91.03% | ― | -40.09% | -18.67% | |
46 Neutral | $39.69M | ― | -1454.41% | ― | 35.76% | 47.48% | |
43 Neutral | $79.87M | ― | -41.36% | ― | -44.17% | 12.77% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SERA
Sera Prognostics
1.88
-6.38
-77.24%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.52
-0.22
-29.73%
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics
1.26
0.08
6.78%
MDXH
MDxHealth
2.06
-0.71
-25.63%
XGN
Exagen
6.03
4.03
201.50%
BDSX
Biodesix
0.36
-1.05
-74.47%
Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -20.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced outlook. While there are positive developments in Medicaid reimbursement and strategic headcount expansion, the company's revenue generation remains minimal, and net losses continue. The ACOG update aligns with the company's strategy, but uncertainties around the Prime Study publication timeline persist.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Progress in Medicaid Reimbursement
Sera Prognostics is ramping up Medicaid plan pilots in states most impacted by premature births, aiming to close promising pilots for managed Medicaid plans within months.
Strategic Headcount Expansion
The company plans to expand its commercial presence by 5 to 10 full-time equivalent employees (FCEs) to resource targeted states and enhance commercial opportunities.
ACOG Bulletin Update
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) released an updated clinical consensus emphasizing risk assessments in prenatal care, aligning with Sera Prognostics' PreTRM test strategy.
Increased Revenue
Net revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $38,000, compared to nil for the first quarter of 2024.
Strong Cash Position
As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities of approximately $114.2 million.
Negative Updates
Minimal Revenue Generation
Despite progress, the first quarter revenue was only $38,000, indicating minimal revenue generation at this stage.
Flat Net Loss
Net loss for the quarter was $8.2 million, relatively flat compared to $8.1 million for the same period a year ago.
Uncertain Timelines for Prime Study Publication
The precise timing of the Prime Study publication remains uncertain, despite passing the next milestone in journal engagement.
Company Guidance
During Sera Prognostics' first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance focusing on its commercial growth strategy following the release of pivotal PRIME study results. The company reported a net revenue of $38,000 for the quarter, with total operating expenses of $9.3 million, slightly up from $9.1 million the previous year. The net loss for the quarter was $8.2 million, stable compared to the prior year. Sera Prognostics highlighted its reimbursement strategy, targeting commercial insurance, employers, and Medicaid, which covers about 43% of U.S. births. The company aims to expand its sales force by 5-10 FCEs and is pursuing Medicaid plan pilots in states with high premature birth rates, anticipating the closure of some pilots within months. With $114.2 million in cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2025, Sera Prognostics is selectively deploying capital to drive test adoption and increase revenue, emphasizing tailored care based on risk stratification highlighted by recent ACOG recommendations.Sera Prognostics Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sera Prognostics Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
Positive
May 8, 2025
On May 8, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced the appointment of Lee Anderson as Chief Commercial Officer, marking a strategic move to enhance its commercial expansion and innovation. Anderson, with over 30 years of experience in the healthcare sector, is expected to drive the adoption and sales of Sera’s PreTRM Test, leveraging his successful track record from previous roles at Genomic Health and Exact Sciences. His leadership is anticipated to strengthen Sera’s market presence and support its mission to transform women’s healthcare.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.