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Sera Prognostics (SERA)
NASDAQ:SERA
US Market

Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

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Sera Prognostics

(NASDAQ:SERA)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(8.30%Upside)
Sera Prognostics faces significant challenges with profitability and valuation, although it has a strong balance sheet and is making strategic moves to improve its market position. Technical indicators show mixed signals, while recent corporate events and earnings call insights suggest a cautious but proactive strategic approach.
Positive Factors
Commercialization Opportunity
The company has a significant opportunity ahead with the commercialization of its PreTRM test.
Guideline Inclusion
Guideline inclusion is a critical mid-term catalyst and SERA plans to publish PRIME with 2-3 additional publications which should enhance PreTRM's profile for guideline inclusion.
Market Cap Potential
The market cap of $150M is considered attractive for investors with a longer-term perspective, given the >$2B US total addressable market and a differentiated test.
Negative Factors
Market Perception
There was nothing in this report that changed analysts' thoughts on the name.
Revenue Traction Timeline
Significant material revenue traction is several years away, suggesting a longer-term investment horizon.

Sera Prognostics (SERA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSera Prognostics (SERA) is a biotechnology company focusing on women's health, specifically in the area of maternal and fetal health. The company specializes in developing diagnostic tests that predict and manage pregnancy complications, aiming to improve the health outcomes for mothers and their babies. Sera Prognostics leverages advanced proteomics and bioinformatics technologies to create innovative solutions that provide early and accurate risk assessment for pregnancy-related conditions.
How the Company Makes MoneySera Prognostics makes money primarily through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. These tests are designed to predict the risk of pregnancy complications, thereby enabling healthcare professionals to take proactive measures in managing patient care. The company's revenue model is centered around the commercialization and distribution of its flagship product, the PreTRM Test, which assesses the risk of preterm birth. Additionally, Sera Prognostics may generate revenue through strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as through research collaborations and licensing agreements for its technologies. These partnerships can provide additional financial resources and market access, further supporting the company's growth and innovation in the maternal-fetal health sector.

Sera Prognostics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 15.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced outlook. While there are positive developments in Medicaid reimbursement and strategic headcount expansion, the company's revenue generation remains minimal, and net losses continue. The ACOG update aligns with the company's strategy, but uncertainties around the Prime Study publication timeline persist.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Progress in Medicaid Reimbursement
Sera Prognostics is ramping up Medicaid plan pilots in states most impacted by premature births, aiming to close promising pilots for managed Medicaid plans within months.
Strategic Headcount Expansion
The company plans to expand its commercial presence by 5 to 10 full-time equivalent employees (FCEs) to resource targeted states and enhance commercial opportunities.
ACOG Bulletin Update
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) released an updated clinical consensus emphasizing risk assessments in prenatal care, aligning with Sera Prognostics' PreTRM test strategy.
Increased Revenue
Net revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $38,000, compared to nil for the first quarter of 2024.
Strong Cash Position
As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities of approximately $114.2 million.
Negative Updates
Minimal Revenue Generation
Despite progress, the first quarter revenue was only $38,000, indicating minimal revenue generation at this stage.
Flat Net Loss
Net loss for the quarter was $8.2 million, relatively flat compared to $8.1 million for the same period a year ago.
Uncertain Timelines for Prime Study Publication
The precise timing of the Prime Study publication remains uncertain, despite passing the next milestone in journal engagement.
Company Guidance
During Sera Prognostics' first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance focusing on its commercial growth strategy following the release of pivotal PRIME study results. The company reported a net revenue of $38,000 for the quarter, with total operating expenses of $9.3 million, slightly up from $9.1 million the previous year. The net loss for the quarter was $8.2 million, stable compared to the prior year. Sera Prognostics highlighted its reimbursement strategy, targeting commercial insurance, employers, and Medicaid, which covers about 43% of U.S. births. The company aims to expand its sales force by 5-10 FCEs and is pursuing Medicaid plan pilots in states with high premature birth rates, anticipating the closure of some pilots within months. With $114.2 million in cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2025, Sera Prognostics is selectively deploying capital to drive test adoption and increase revenue, emphasizing tailored care based on risk stratification highlighted by recent ACOG recommendations.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sera Prognostics exhibits revenue growth but is not yet profitable, shown by significant negative net profit margins. The balance sheet is strong with low debt, but negative cash flows and profitability metrics indicate ongoing financial challenges.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Sera Prognostics shows revenue growth with a 49.35% increase in the TTM period, but remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin of -28685.22%. Gross profit margin improved slightly to 8.70% in the TTM, indicating some operational efficiency. However, the persistent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing challenges in scaling to profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0009 in the TTM. The equity ratio stands at 80.20%, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative due to continued losses, highlighting challenges in generating shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Free cash flow is negative, though it has improved slightly by 4.02% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company struggles to convert its earnings into cash, which could affect liquidity and operational flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue115.00K77.00K306.00K268.00K82.00K25.00K
Gross Profit10.00K-5.00K96.00K75.00K45.00K14.00K
EBITDA-33.41M-32.04M-35.29M-42.91M-33.60M-17.11M
Net Income-32.99M-32.90M-36.24M-44.25M-36.23M-21.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets118.18M72.58M95.44M116.33M147.03M14.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments46.20M46.24M49.08M82.70M105.11M13.53M
Total Debt81.00K840.00K1.86M2.31M128.00K8.67M
Total Liabilities23.40M24.77M25.28M17.39M8.46M140.37M
Stockholders Equity94.78M47.80M70.16M98.94M138.56M-125.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-27.13M-14.24M-27.32M-35.40M-32.94M-17.02M
Operating Cash Flow-26.74M-14.19M-27.19M-34.61M-31.64M-16.87M
Investing Cash Flow-27.37M11.74M438.00K5.55M-82.56M-149.00K
Financing Cash Flow55.10M2.61M752.00K5.00K159.59M9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.77
Price Trends
50DMA
2.27
Positive
100DMA
3.11
Negative
200DMA
5.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.15
Negative
RSI
57.85
Neutral
STOCH
74.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.92, above the 50-day MA of 2.27, and below the 200-day MA of 5.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Risk Analysis

Sera Prognostics disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sera Prognostics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
¥343.99B10.56-2.88%2.55%11.80%-6.84%
XGXGN
62
Neutral
$153.02M-117.50%1.78%22.46%
57
Neutral
$113.84M-1552.23%25.46%21.83%
53
Neutral
$79.11M138.92%64.15%41.65%
52
Neutral
$97.57M-41.36%-44.17%12.77%
46
Neutral
$159.17M-91.03%-40.09%-18.67%
43
Neutral
$36.68M-1454.41%35.76%47.48%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SERA
Sera Prognostics
2.59
-2.79
-51.86%
VNRX
VolitionRX
0.77
0.13
20.31%
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics
1.41
0.26
22.61%
MDXH
MDxHealth
2.12
-0.21
-9.01%
XGN
Exagen
6.99
5.18
286.19%
BDSX
Biodesix
0.29
-1.31
-81.88%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sera Prognostics Elects New Board Members at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Sera Prognostics held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 66.2% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, Jane F. Barlow, M.D. and Mansoor Raza Mirza, M.D. were elected to the Board of Directors for a three-year term, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sera Prognostics Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced the appointment of Lee Anderson as Chief Commercial Officer, marking a strategic move to enhance its commercial expansion and innovation. Anderson, with over 30 years of experience in the healthcare sector, is expected to drive the adoption and sales of Sera’s PreTRM Test, leveraging his successful track record from previous roles at Genomic Health and Exact Sciences. His leadership is anticipated to strengthen Sera’s market presence and support its mission to transform women’s healthcare.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025