Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $119.13M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 90.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 0.93%
• EPS Growth: 13.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 37,094,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 48,590
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 90,700
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 889.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -425.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.02
• 1Y Price Target: $3.00
• Price Target Upside: -4.15% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-4.15% Downside)

The overall stock score of 48 reflects significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative cash flows being the most impactful factors. While there are some positive technical indicators and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call, these are overshadowed by the company's financial instability and unattractive valuation.

Positive Factors

Medicaid Program Engagement

Engagement with Medicaid programs provides a durable revenue stream and validates the PreTRM Test's utility, potentially leading to broader adoption and sustained growth.

European Market Expansion

Entering the European market can significantly expand Sera's customer base and revenue potential, leveraging new regulatory approvals and market penetration.

Strong Cash Position

A strong cash position ensures operational funding through 2028, supporting strategic initiatives and providing financial stability for long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Decline in Net Revenue

The decline in net revenue highlights ongoing challenges in market penetration and sales growth, potentially impacting future profitability and cash flow.

Negative Cash Flows

Persistent negative cash flows indicate operational inefficiencies and financial strain, which could hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Net Loss

Continued net losses reflect challenges in achieving profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to improve cost management and revenue generation.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics makes money primarily through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. These tests are designed to predict the risk of pregnancy complications, thereby enabling healthcare professionals to take proactive measures in managing patient care. The company's revenue model is centered around the commercialization and distribution of its flagship product, the PreTRM Test, which assesses the risk of preterm birth. Additionally, Sera Prognostics may generate revenue through strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as through research collaborations and licensing agreements for its technologies. These partnerships can provide additional financial resources and market access, further supporting the company's growth and innovation in the maternal-fetal health sector.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative cash flows. The income statement reflects declining revenues and profitability, while the balance sheet shows limited leverage but poor returns on equity. Cash flow issues further exacerbate the company's financial instability, highlighting the need for strategic improvements to achieve financial sustainability.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics has experienced negative revenue growth and significant losses, as evidenced by negative gross and net profit margins. The TTM data shows a worsening trend in profitability, with net profit margins deeply negative at -303.06%. The company is struggling to generate revenue and control costs, leading to substantial EBIT and EBITDA losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0039, indicating minimal leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the overall financial health is weak due to persistent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining trend in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash outflows are not supporting earnings. Despite a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, the overall cash flow situation is concerning.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	108.00K	77.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K
Gross Profit	-226.00K	-5.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K
EBITDA	-31.85M	-32.04M	-35.29M	-42.91M	-33.60M	-17.11M
Net Income	-32.73M	-32.90M	-36.24M	-44.25M	-36.23M	-21.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	111.83M	72.58M	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.16M	46.24M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M
Total Debt	351.00K	840.00K	1.86M	2.31M	128.00K	8.67M
Total Liabilities	23.60M	24.77M	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	140.37M
Stockholders Equity	88.23M	47.80M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	-125.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.95M	-14.24M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-26.28M	-14.19M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.28M	11.74M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K
Financing Cash Flow	53.91M	2.61M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.14, above the 50-day MA of 2.88, and below the 200-day MA of 3.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRE	53 Neutral	$190.30M	-3.90	-27.18%	―	135.15%	10.32%
BNR	51 Neutral	$97.02M	-4.81	-59.68%	―	5.33%	75.52%
SERA	48 Neutral	$119.13M	―	-44.24%	―	0.93%	13.99%
ACRS	47 Neutral	$199.33M	-1.34	-102.21%	―	-47.56%	-65.54%
BDSX	44 Neutral	$61.36M	-1.37	-3609.67%	―	25.70%	39.25%
VNRX	41 Neutral	$67.28M	-2.56	73.31%	―	35.10%	39.15%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Highlights Strategy at Investment Conference

On September 5, 2025, Sera Prognostics presented a new investor presentation at the H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference. The company highlighted its strategic focus on commercializing the PreTRM® test, supported by a strong financial position with $108.5 million in cash and marketable securities. Sera Prognostics aims to address the significant economic burden of preterm births in the U.S., which account for a substantial portion of neonatal healthcare costs. The company is progressing with Medicaid engagement and anticipates a commercial inflection point as it continues to expand its market presence.