Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $136.24M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 40.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: 22.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 37,627,033
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 55,279
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 40,220
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3505.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17K
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.88K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.49
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 41.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▼(-0.85% Downside)

Overall score is held back primarily by poor financial performance (shrinking revenue, very large losses, and negative ROE). Technicals are somewhat supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings. The earnings call points to meaningful commercialization and payer-coverage progress, but near-term financial headwinds remain significant.

Positive Factors

Robust randomized clinical evidence (PRIME)

A large RCT demonstrating meaningful reductions in early preterm births and NICU admissions provides durable clinical validation. This strengthens physician trust, payer engagement, and adoption potential, creating a structural market advantage for PreTRM versus standard screening methods.

Solid near-term cash runway

A multi-year cash runway reduces immediate financing pressure and allows Sera to invest in commercial rollout, payer pilots, and sales hires. That financial buffer supports execution of a geographically focused commercial strategy and clinical dissemination over the next 2–3 years.

Minimal financial leverage

Very low leverage and a high equity base provide structural financial flexibility, lowering fixed financing costs and preserving optionality for strategic investments or partnerships. This balance-sheet profile supports sustained R&D and commercialization without large interest burdens.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and extreme negative margins

Persistently shrinking revenue and outsized negative margins indicate the company is far from operational breakeven. Structural profitability challenges can erode shareholder value over time and require sustained revenue scale or major margin improvement to justify commercialization investments.

Deteriorating cash generation metrics

Worsening FCF growth and inefficiency converting accounting losses into cash reduce self-funding ability for commercialization. Over time this increases dependence on external financing, which can dilute shareholders or constrain strategic initiatives if capital markets tighten.

High operating expense base vs minimal revenue

A large operating cost structure while revenue remains negligible creates a high burn rate. Sustained SG&A increases without commensurate revenue growth will prolong losses, pressure the cash runway, and slow the path to scalable, profitable commercialization.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests, including the SeraTest, to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where it charges for each test performed. Additionally, Sera may engage in partnerships with healthcare organizations and pharmaceutical companies for research collaborations and the development of new tests, which can provide additional revenue streams. Insurance reimbursements also play a significant role in the company's revenue, as many diagnostic tests are covered by health insurance plans, facilitating broader adoption of their services. Furthermore, ongoing investments in R&D to expand their product offerings can lead to new revenue opportunities in the future.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and substantial losses impacting profitability. While the company maintains a low level of debt, its negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight ongoing operational difficulties. The financial outlook remains concerning, with a need for strategic improvements to achieve sustainable growth and profitability.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics has experienced declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -12.04% in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company shows significant negative margins, including a net profit margin of -303.06% and an EBIT margin of -302.91%, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. These figures highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.004, suggesting minimal leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative at -45.86%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 75.99%, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow growth rate of -2.70% in the TTM, indicating deteriorating cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -1.11, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, indicating some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	95.00K	77.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K
Gross Profit	-59.00K	-5.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K
EBITDA	-31.70M	-32.04M	-35.29M	-43.37M	-33.60M	-17.11M
Net Income	-32.63M	-32.90M	-36.24M	-44.19M	-35.01M	-19.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.13M	72.58M	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.30M	46.24M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M
Total Debt	2.45M	840.00K	1.86M	2.83M	128.00K	8.57M
Total Liabilities	25.94M	24.77M	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	11.86M
Stockholders Equity	82.18M	47.80M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	2.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.22M	-15.29M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-25.76M	-14.19M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.01M	11.74M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K
Financing Cash Flow	54.17M	2.61M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.36, above the 50-day MA of 3.21, and above the 200-day MA of 2.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNR	57 Neutral	$251.94M	-14.55	-19.87%	―	5.44%	72.17%
ACRS	52 Neutral	$290.37M	-1.94	-113.23%	―	-41.87%	-165.76%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRE	51 Neutral	$236.27M	-4.59	-23.93%	―	159.45%	8.59%
VNRX	49 Neutral	$43.57M	-1.56	―	―	14.48%	36.83%
SERA	48 Neutral	$136.24M	-4.59	-47.69%	―	1.06%	22.41%
BDSX	44 Neutral	$44.39M	-1.04	-302.55%	―	22.29%	31.93%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Unveils Strategy to Redefine Pregnancy Care

On January 8, 2026, Sera Prognostics posted a new investor presentation outlining its strategy to “redefine” pregnancy care through its PreTRM test, a clinically validated, blood-based proteomic assay that predicts spontaneous preterm birth risk earlier than traditional screening methods. The presentation highlights the worsening U.S. preterm birth landscape, with rising NICU admissions, higher preterm birth rates, and markedly higher long-term healthcare costs for premature infants, positioning PreTRM as a solution that integrates into standard prenatal workflows and identifies high‑risk pregnancies that current methods largely miss. Operationally, Sera reported $102.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025, which it says should fund the business through 2028 and support a targeted revenue inflection, while it pursues broader commercial adoption via Medicaid and commercial pilot programs and builds on published PRIME trial data and forthcoming subgroup analyses to strengthen clinical and payer engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (SERA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sera Prognostics stock, see the SERA Stock Forecast page.

Sera Prognostics Trial Validates PreTRM Test’s Preterm Benefits

On January 7, 2026, Sera Prognostics reported that results from its 5,018-patient PRIME randomized controlled trial, published in the journal PREGNANCY, showed that use of the company’s PreTRM blood test combined with targeted interventions significantly reduced early preterm births, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions, and newborn complications among predominantly low-risk pregnant women. The study found 56% and 32% fewer births before 32 and 35 weeks respectively, a 20% reduction in NICU admissions and neonatal morbidity, and a markedly lower number of patients needing to be screened to prevent NICU stays versus standard care, strengthening the clinical evidence behind PreTRM and potentially enhancing Sera’s competitive position in prenatal diagnostics as it promotes the test as a more efficient, equitable approach to improving outcomes and lowering downstream healthcare costs; company executives and study investigators planned to discuss the full findings in a Jefferies-hosted fireside chat on January 9, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SERA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sera Prognostics stock, see the SERA Stock Forecast page.

Sera Prognostics’ PRIME Study Accepted for Publication

On November 24, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced that the findings of its PRIME study, one of the largest studies on preterm birth, were accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. This development highlights the company’s commitment to advancing maternal and neonatal health through innovative research, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and providing significant insights for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SERA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sera Prognostics stock, see the SERA Stock Forecast page.