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Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Debt Reduction
Free cash flow continues to support attractive buybacks and debt reduction.
Production Guidance
AR provided a more efficient 2025 outlook, reducing its total capex guidance by 1.6% and increasing its total production guidance by 0.7%.
Share Buybacks
The company repurchased shares at an 8% discount to the average share price during the quarter, with substantial remaining buyback authorization.
Negative Factors
Commodity Pricing
Due to weaker than expected 2Q25 pricing, AR reduced its annual C3+ NGL realized price guidance by 25.0% to a premium of $1.00-$2.00/bbl.
Earnings Impact
Lower average realized commodity prices and higher operating expenses are expected to impact earnings per share estimates.
Market Disruptions
Weaker realizations over the quarter stemmed from the inability to fully access premium Tier 1 markets due to maintenance at TGP 500L, which was a temporary disruption.
Antero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth11.65%
EPS Growth415.90%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength62
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding308,931,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,186,132
30 Day Avg. Volume5,446,765
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)2.51
P/FCF Ratio14.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.36Price Target Upside45.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations. It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Antero's strong capital efficiency, strategic hedging, and improvements in NGL pricing and LNG exports, along with significant debt reduction and share buybacks. However, there were minor setbacks such as reduced NGL price guidance and pipeline maintenance impacts. Overall, the positive achievements and strategic initiatives outweigh the lowlights, indicating a strong performance outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Capital Efficiency
Antero increased its production guidance while decreasing CapEx, with maintenance production target rising 5% from under 3.3 Bcf equivalent per day to over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day, and maintenance capital requirements declined by 26% from $900 million to $663 million.
Strong Hedging Strategy
Antero added natural gas costless collars for 2026, with a floor price of $3.14 and a ceiling of $6.31, hedging approximately 20% of its expected natural gas volumes through 2026, reducing the free cash flow breakeven to $1.75 per Mcf.
NGL Pricing Premium
Antero's C3+ cost price averaged $37.92 per barrel in Q2, with realizations improving year-over-year from 50% to 59% of WTI, and expects premiums to the NGL benchmark to improve in the second half of the year.
Increasing LNG Exports
U.S. propane exports increased by 6% year-over-year, averaging over 1.8 million barrels per day, with new Gulf Coast export capacity leading to higher exports and strengthening Mont Belvieu NGL prices.
Debt Reduction and Share Buybacks
Antero generated $260 million of free cash flow in Q2, using nearly $200 million to reduce debt and $150 million for share repurchases, reducing total debt by 30% or $400 million year-to-date.
Negative Updates
Reduced NGL Price Guidance
Antero reduced its full-year NGL price guidance slightly due to Q2 actuals impacted by inventory adjustments.
Pipeline Maintenance Impact
Maintenance along the TGP 500 Leg restricted premium realizations during Q2, impacting Antero's ability to capture higher premiums at that delivery point.
Company Guidance
During the Antero Resources Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on various financial and operational metrics. Antero reported a notable increase in production guidance, achieving over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day, while simultaneously reducing maintenance capital by 26% to $663 million. Impressively, Antero's maintenance capital cost is just $0.53 per Mcfe, 27% below the peer average. In terms of hedging strategy, Antero has secured costless collars for 2026, guaranteeing a floor price of $3.14 and a ceiling of $6.31, covering approximately 20% of expected natural gas volumes. This strategy lowers Antero's 2026 free cash flow breakeven to $1.75 per Mcf. Additionally, the company achieved $260 million in free cash flow during the second quarter, using nearly $200 million to reduce debt. Antero's realized C3+ NGL prices averaged $37.92 per barrel, with expectations of premiums to the NGL benchmark continuing through the second half of the year. The company also highlighted the potential for increased regional power demand, which could reach nearly 5 Bcf, and discussed the benefits of new Gulf Coast LPG export capacity on Mont Belvieu pricing.Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Resources shows strengths in cash flow management and a stable equity position. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage, and needs improvement in profitability and operational efficiency.Income Statement
Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.84B | 4.33B | 4.28B | 8.29B | 5.79B | 3.08B |
| Gross Profit | 5.37B | 4.00B | 669.35M | 4.62B | 2.25B | -514.44M |
| EBITDA | 1.37B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M | -592.73M |
| Net Income | 251.20M | 57.23M | 242.92M | 1.90B | -154.11M | -1.26B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.77B | 13.01B | 13.62B | 14.12B | 13.90B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.45B | -3.42B | -2.61B |
| Total Debt | 3.49B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B | 5.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.28B | 5.79B | 6.41B | 7.10B | 7.83B | 7.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.31B | 7.02B | 6.98B | 6.75B | 5.76B | 5.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.56B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B | 687.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.39B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B | 735.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -705.41M | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M | -530.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -688.87M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M | -205.58M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
31.13
Price Trends
35.37
Negative
36.14
Negative
36.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.21
Negative
38.22
Neutral
34.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.15, below the 50-day MA of 35.37, and below the 200-day MA of 36.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $22.36B | 8.01 | 20.60% | 3.24% | 10.98% | -19.25% | |
75 Outperform | $11.09B | 9.19 | 12.86% | 4.76% | 16.37% | 21.22% | |
72 Outperform | $8.09B | 16.81 | 11.99% | 1.00% | 19.95% | 0.94% | |
70 Outperform | $10.60B | 18.11 | 5.75% | 2.93% | -12.92% | -68.16% | |
67 Neutral | $9.47B | 21.35 | 6.31% | ― | 11.65% | 415.90% | |
65 Neutral | $15.25B | 7.27 | 3.02% | 5.36% | 4.27% | -62.52% | |
44 Neutral | $4.65B | ― | -3.18% | 0.66% | 17.60% | -385.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AR
Antero Resources
31.13
4.23
15.72%
CRK
Comstock Resources
15.87
5.12
47.63%
DVN
Devon Energy
35.23
-8.37
-19.20%
OVV
Ovintiv
40.91
-1.60
-3.76%
RRC
Range Resources
33.97
4.26
14.34%
PR
Permian Resources
13.87
-0.15
-1.07%
Antero Resources Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025
On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.