Antero Resources Corp (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(17.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably robust free cash flow and improved margins) and a positive earnings call with higher production, lower costs, and accelerating synergy/deleveraging targets. These strengths are moderated by mixed technical momentum and a valuation that looks fair rather than compelling, alongside ongoing cycle and NGL-price volatility risks.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions and debt paydown. High cash conversion (~89% of net income) reduces reliance on equity markets, supports the 1.0x leverage target and increases financial flexibility across cycles.
Negative Factors
Unhedged liquids and NGL/ethane volatility
Material exposure to spot NGLs and ethane creates ongoing cash‑flow and margin volatility because liquids are unhedged. Quarter‑to‑quarter swings in recoveries or regional cracker outages can quickly reverse realized NGL economics and impair predictability of FCF.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, acquisitions and debt paydown. High cash conversion (~89% of net income) reduces reliance on equity markets, supports the 1.0x leverage target and increases financial flexibility across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAntero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.1
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth24.26%
EPS Growth323.40%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.11
Shares Outstanding309,836,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,350,017
30 Day Avg. Volume4,803,433
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.96Price Target Upside30.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.78B
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,0...
How the Company Makes Money
Antero Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—natural gas, NGLs (such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline), and crude oil/condensate—from its operated shale drilling program in Appalachia. Revenue is gen...
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (100% uptime during a major storm), record production (3.9 Bcfe/d, +13% YoY), substantial free cash flow (Q1 $657M; $750M+ Dec–Q1), accelerated debt paydown and acquisition synergies that materially outpaced initial targets (forecasted $80M in 2026 vs. $50M target). Management also highlighted favorable macro tailwinds for NGLs and LNG demand and a strong hedge position on gas volumes. The primary negatives were geopolitical-driven market uncertainty, inventory/export timing risk, NGL/ethane realization volatility, and execution/timing risks associated with recontracting transport and phased demand projects. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum significantly outweighs the risks, though management remains conservatively guided given external uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Production
Q1 production of 3.9 Bcfe per day, a 13% increase vs. the year-ago period; company guidance for full-year 2026 of ~4.1 Bcfe per day, nearly a 20% increase from 2025.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Uncertainty and Guidance Conservatism
Ongoing Middle East conflict (Operation Epiq Fury) has introduced market volatility and uncertainty; management stated it is too uncertain to update guidance with high confidence and maintained conservative guidance despite strong early premiums.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Production
Q1 production of 3.9 Bcfe per day, a 13% increase vs. the year-ago period; company guidance for full-year 2026 of ~4.1 Bcfe per day, nearly a 20% increase from 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Antero’s guidance stressed strong 2026 cash‑flow and production momentum: Q1 production was a record 3.9 Bcfe/d and full‑year 2026 production is guided to ~4.1 Bcfe/d (≈20% above 2025); over 60% of 2026 natural gas volumes are hedged (one‑third hedged for 2027) with a 25–50% annual hedge target while liquids remain unhedged; 2026 cash‑cost guidance was lowered $0.10/Mcfe at the midpoint (Q2–Q4 cash production expense ~ $0.26/Mcfe below 2025 full‑year average and total cost savings including G&A/marketing of $0.30/Mcfe); HG acquisition synergies are now forecast at >$80M in 2026 (with $15–$20M already realized and ~$100M+ annual run‑rate thereafter, part of a longer‑term ~$1B opportunity), free cash flow was $657M in Q1 and >$750M from December through Q1 (exceeding the $500M acquisition‑funding target by $250M), the company has funded over half the HG transaction and expects to fully fund it by early next year, targets 1.0x leverage by mid‑2026 (six months ahead), plans $1.0B of 2026 CapEx with a discretionary $200M upside, and notes that producing 46M bbls of C3+ means $1/bbl ≈ $46M of cash flow and that C3+ realizations have risen ~ $12/bbl (implying >$550M incremental FCF in 2026).Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.48B | 5.01B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 1.43B | 1.11B | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| EBITDA | 2.18B | 1.73B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M |
| Net Income | 961.66M | 634.42M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.35B | 14.29B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 210.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 4.75B | 5.14B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.13B | 6.57B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.06B | 7.55B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.77B | 1.24B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.03B | 1.63B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.15B | -1.08B | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.12B | -343.12M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
36.68
Price Trends
39.27
Negative
37.01
Negative
35.12
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
43.21
Neutral
42.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.79, below the 50-day MA of 39.27, and above the 200-day MA of 35.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $9.69B | 7.77 | 20.93% | 1.00% | 23.03% | 239.04% | |
72 Outperform | $11.48B | 6.12 | 12.71% | ― | 24.26% | 323.40% | |
71 Outperform | $13.55B | 8.42 | 25.11% | 3.80% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
69 Neutral | $17.11B | 99.25 | 6.32% | 4.27% | -1.12% | -48.40% | |
69 Neutral | $8.04B | 18.56 | -0.83% | 5.73% | -0.99% | -107.05% | |
68 Neutral | $16.54B | -6.32 | 7.11% | 3.16% | -0.59% | 32.83% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
AR
Antero Resources
36.75
-2.74
-6.94%
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Antero Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Highlights Strategy at Raymond James Conference
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation planned to participate in Raymond James Associates’ 47th Annual Institutional Investors Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with the institutional investor community. The company ma...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Antero Resources Sells Utica Assets to Reduce Debt
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Antero Resources completed the previously announced sale of substantially all of its Utica Shale oil and gas assets in Ohio to an affiliate of Infinity Natural Resources and Northern Oil and Gas for $800 million in cash, subj...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources Plans Redemption Tied to Ohio Asset Sale
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation issued a conditional notice to fully redeem its 7.625% senior notes due 2029, covering $365.4 million in outstanding principal, at 101.271% of par plus accrued interest, with a planned redemption d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.