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Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
67Neutral
Positive Factors
Debt Reduction
Antero Resources has focused on reducing debt, repaying the full amount due in 2026 and reducing borrowings on its credit facility, which strengthens its balance sheet.
Market Position
Antero is well positioned to take advantage of any rise in gas prices as over 98% of FY25E production volumes are expected to come from natural gas and NGLs in Appalachia.
Shareholder Returns
Antero Resources has repurchased a total of $92 million in shares year-to-date, indicating strong shareholder return strategies.
Negative Factors
Commodity Prices
LPG prices have been hit by reduced China imports which was the main market for US producers.
Financial Performance
AR reported subpar 1Q25 results with DCFPS, EBITDA and FCF coming in slightly below expectations on lower liquids volumes, higher net marketing expense and a higher overall operating cost structure.
Oil Demand
WTI prices have fallen by nearly $10/bbl as the market expects lower worldwide oil demand due to trade barriers.
Antero Resources (AR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)183.4
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth6.67%
EPS Growth240.70%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength47
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding311,180,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,905,207
30 Day Avg. Volume5,786,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.93
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)11.40
P/FCF Ratio21.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.81
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.53Price Target Upside24.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations. It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.
Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Resources shows strengths in cash flow management and a stable equity position. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage, and needs improvement in profitability and operational efficiency.Income Statement
Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.78
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.33B | 4.28B | 8.29B | 5.79B | 3.08B | Gross Profit |
| 4.00B | 669.35M | 4.62B | 2.25B | -514.44M | EBIT |
| 460.00K | 453.13M | 4.44B | 2.08B | -864.86M | EBITDA |
| 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M | -592.73M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 57.23M | 242.92M | 1.90B | -154.11M | -1.26B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.45B | -3.42B | -2.61B | Total Assets |
| 13.01B | 13.62B | 14.12B | 13.90B | 13.15B | Total Debt |
| 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B | 5.62B | Net Debt |
| 4.03B | 4.51B | 8.08B | 8.97B | 8.23B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.79B | 6.41B | 7.10B | 7.83B | 7.06B | Stockholders Equity |
| 7.02B | 6.98B | 6.75B | 5.76B | 5.77B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B | 687.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B | 735.64M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M | -530.06M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M | -205.58M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
35.76
Price Trends
36.55
Negative
36.54
Negative
32.50
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
51.03
Neutral
70.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.06, below the 50-day MA of 36.55, and above the 200-day MA of 32.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $9.87B | 8.44 | 12.79% | 3.47% | 60.23% | 19.57% | |
76 Outperform | $20.23B | 6.89 | 21.77% | 4.01% | 3.00% | -21.63% | |
67 Neutral | $10.30B | 183.38 | 3.21% | ― | 6.67% | 240.70% | |
67 Neutral | $8.02B | 30.58 | 6.96% | 0.96% | 11.88% | -43.44% | |
62 Neutral | $9.24B | 8.44 | 10.87% | 3.49% | -15.82% | -46.85% | |
56 Neutral | $6.99B | 3.72 | -4.39% | 5.96% | -0.24% | -48.44% | |
47 Neutral | $5.67B | ― | -14.17% | 0.66% | -1.17% | -608.98% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AR
Antero Resources
35.76
2.62
7.91%
CRK
Comstock Resources
20.27
10.29
103.11%
DVN
Devon Energy
31.44
-17.49
-35.74%
OVV
Ovintiv
35.49
-14.56
-29.09%
RRC
Range Resources
35.01
-0.36
-1.02%
PR
Permian Resources
12.20
-3.94
-24.41%
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 2.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for Antero Resources with significant achievements in drilling efficiency, NGL pricing premiums, and free cash flow generation. However, there are some concerns regarding exposure to China tariffs and natural gas market uncertainties. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects, such as debt reduction and strong market positioning, outweigh the lowlights.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Increased completed feet per day by 15% compared to 2023, achieving a new company record of 18 completion stages per day on one pad in March.
NGL Pricing Premium
Antero expects a $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu on realized C3+ NGL prices, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024, supported by firm sales agreements on 90% of LPG volumes for 2025.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
Generated $337 million of free cash flow in Q1 2025 and reduced debt by over $200 million, entering 2025 with the lowest debt level among peers.
Record U.S. Propane Exports
Exports year-to-date are at record high levels, 7% above the year-ago period, with no cancellations reported at major U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals.
Gulf Coast LNG Pricing Impact
Faster-than-expected ramp of Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility led to a $0.11/MMBtu increase in Gulf Coast pricing for 2025 and 2026.
Negative Updates
Exposure to China Tariffs
Although only a small portion of LPG volumes historically went to China, ongoing tariff negotiations and market dynamics pose potential risks.
Natural Gas Market Uncertainty
Uncertainties around global gas market dynamics and potential oversupply could present challenges, despite current favorable conditions.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Antero Resources reported significant operational efficiencies and strategic financial maneuvers. The company increased its completed feet per day to 2,452, a 15% improvement from 2023, and achieved a company record of 18 completion stages per day on one pad. Antero maintained a lean operation with two rigs and one completion crew, sustaining 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day of production. They hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026 with collars set between $3.07 and $5.96. On the financial front, Antero generated $337 million in free cash flow, repurchased $92 million in stock, and reduced debt by $200 million. Their strategy includes maintaining a 50-50 split between debt reduction and share buybacks, with a focus on capital efficiency at $0.54 per Mcfe and a breakeven at $2.29 per Mcf. The company highlighted strong NGL pricing, securing $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu, and anticipates beneficial global trade patterns adjustments amidst evolving LPG market conditions.Antero Resources Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025
On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.