Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
â–²(26.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by the strong 2025 financial recovery (especially free cash flow) and an upbeat earnings outlook supported by cost reductions, hedging, and improving leverage. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation is more neutral due to a mid-range P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow (> $750M in 2025) provides durable financial flexibility: it funded >$300M debt paydown, $136M buybacks and $250M+ in accretive investments, enabling capital returns, deleveraging and opportunistic reinvestment even in a capital‑intensive E&P model.
Negative Factors
NGL / C3+ Price Sensitivity
Significant exposure to C3+ (NGL) pricing means large FCF swings from relatively modest petrochemical price moves. This structurally amplifies cash flow volatility versus gas‑only peers, constraining long‑term planning and making margins and returns highly dependent on global petrochemical demand and export infrastructure timing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow (> $750M in 2025) provides durable financial flexibility: it funded >$300M debt paydown, $136M buybacks and $250M+ in accretive investments, enabling capital returns, deleveraging and opportunistic reinvestment even in a capital‑intensive E&P model.
Read all positive factors
Antero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.8
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth17.05%
EPS Growth1028.81%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding308,525,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,477,184
30 Day Avg. Volume6,382,062
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.69Price Target Upside28.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)4.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.48B
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,0...
How the Company Makes Money
Antero Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—natural gas, NGLs, and oil/condensate—from its operated wells in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is recognized when these commodities are delivered to purchasers under sal...
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAntero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a decidedly positive operational and financial picture: management reported strong execution during severe winter weather, record operational productivity, a transformational HG acquisition that expands acreage, inventory life and dry‑gas exposure, substantial free cash flow generation (> $750M), meaningful debt reduction (> $300M) and a disciplined capital and hedge program. Key challenges cited include near‑term NGL headwinds driven by trade and export start‑up delays, a decelerating U.S. C3+ supply growth profile, and the market not yet fully reflecting the company’s improved fundamentals. On balance, the magnitude and number of positive developments (acquisition benefits, cost reduction ~10%, production growth of ~20.6% YoY to 4.1 Bcfe/d in 2026, strong cash generation and hedges) materially outweigh the cited headwinds and execution items.Positive Updates
Operational Resilience During Winter Storm
No shut-in volumes during a severe winter storm with subzero temperatures and heavy snowfall; field teams turned in-line a seven-well pad during the event, demonstrating strong operational execution and reliability.
Negative Updates
NGL Market Headwinds and Inventory Build
Propane inventories ran higher than market expectations in 2025 driven by U.S.–China trade tensions (reshuffling export destinations) and export terminal start‑up delays or operational issues, pressuring NGL fundamentals despite resilient demand.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Resilience During Winter Storm
No shut-in volumes during a severe winter storm with subzero temperatures and heavy snowfall; field teams turned in-line a seven-well pad during the event, demonstrating strong operational execution and reliability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance calls for $1.0 billion of 2026 drilling & completion capital (including ~$900 million maintenance capex and $100 million from higher working interest) with an optional incremental ~$200 million of second‑half growth capex; production is forecast at ~4.1 Bcfe/d in 2026, rising to ~4.3 Bcfe/d in 2027 (with an option to reach ~4.5 Bcfe/d), maintenance capex remaining ~ $900M even at higher volumes, and leverage expected to be roughly the pre‑acquisition level (just below 1.0x) by 2026. Financial de‑risking includes ~60% of 2026 gas volumes hedged (≈40% swaps at $3.92/MMBtu and ≈20% wide collars $3.24–$5.70) and ~30% of 2027 volumes (~0.9 Bcf/d) hedged at high‑$3s with the ability to hedge local basis (~$0.75 back) to lock in ~ $3 wellhead realizations; the HG acquisition adds 385,000 net acres and >400 locations, increased the production base >30%, extended inventory life by five years and is expected to lower cash costs by nearly 10% (targeting roughly $0.25/Mcfe margin improvement). Operational and market context: 2025 generated >$750 million of free cash flow (used to pay down >$300M of debt, repurchase $136M of stock and invest >$250M in accretive transactions), company set a 19 stages/day single‑crew record (avg >14 stages/day, +8% y/y) and averaged <5 drilling days/10,000 ft (‑4% y/y), while NGLs trade above $35/bbl (annual average strip ~$33.5/bbl; a $5 move ~ $225M FCF) and regional demand dynamics (ResCom ~42 Bcf/d winter, LNG exports +~5 Bcf/d y/y) support tighter local basis (TGP 500L ~ +$0.66 to Henry Hub; 2026 local basis ~ $0.74 back).Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
69
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.28B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 1.17B | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| EBITDA | 1.69B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M |
| Net Income | 634.42M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.29B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 210.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 5.14B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.57B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.55B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.24B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.63B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.08B | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -343.12M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Neutral
37.89
Price Trends
38.07
Positive
36.19
Positive
34.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Positive
39.98
Neutral
11.54
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.89, below the 50-day MA of 38.07, and above the 200-day MA of 34.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $17.90B | 10.74 | 9.56% | 4.27% | 7.55% | -34.40% | |
74 Outperform | $11.69B | 16.82 | 8.63% | ― | 17.05% | 1028.81% | |
74 Outperform | $7.55B | 120.54 | 0.54% | 5.73% | 8.43% | -86.63% | |
72 Outperform | $13.65B | 6.12 | 24.51% | 3.80% | 4.88% | -41.34% | |
72 Outperform | $15.89B | 8.12 | 11.86% | 3.16% | -8.07% | -87.88% | |
72 Outperform | $10.08B | 12.75 | 15.87% | 1.00% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
AR
Antero Resources
37.89
4.79
14.47%
APA
APA
38.63
24.33
170.14%
OVV
Ovintiv
56.09
24.20
75.90%
RRC
Range Resources
42.84
9.77
29.54%
PR
Permian Resources
20.66
10.06
94.91%
CHRD
Chord Energy
134.17
49.30
58.08%
Antero Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Highlights Strategy at Raymond James Conference
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation planned to participate in Raymond James Associates’ 47th Annual Institutional Investors Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with the institutional investor community. The company ma...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Antero Resources Sells Utica Assets to Reduce Debt
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Antero Resources completed the previously announced sale of substantially all of its Utica Shale oil and gas assets in Ohio to an affiliate of Infinity Natural Resources and Northern Oil and Gas for $800 million in cash, subj...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources Plans Redemption Tied to Ohio Asset Sale
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation issued a conditional notice to fully redeem its 7.625% senior notes due 2029, covering $365.4 million in outstanding principal, at 101.271% of par plus accrued interest, with a planned redemption d...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources Secures $1.5 Billion Term Loan Facility
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Antero Resources entered into an unsecured Term Loan A credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada and a syndicate of lenders, drawing $1.5 billion in a single borrowing to partially finance its previously announced Antero Resou...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources completes notes offering for acquisition funding
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation completed a $750 million underwritten public offering of 5.400% senior unsecured notes due 2036, which pay interest semiannually and rank equally with the company’s other senior unsecured deb...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition
Neutral
Jan 14, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Antero Resources priced an underwritten public offering of $750 million in 5.40% senior unsecured notes due 2036, with the transaction expected to close on January 28, 2026 and generate approximately $743 million in net procee...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.