Antero Resources (AR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 17.05%
• EPS Growth: 1028.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 616
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 308,525,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,358,621
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,826,524
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.08
• 1Y Price Target: $44.57
• Price Target Upside: 25.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.11B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(6.92% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/12/26

The score is driven by a strong 2025 financial recovery and cash flow strength, reinforced by upbeat guidance, hedging, and acquisition-driven scale/cost improvements from the latest earnings call. Offsetting factors are high commodity-driven cyclicality, a largely neutral technical setup, and a mid-range valuation with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained free cash flow in 2025 funded meaningful debt paydown, buybacks and accretive investments, improving financial flexibility. Durable cash generation strengthens the firm's ability to fund maintenance capex, optional growth and deleveraging through commodity cycles.

Improving balance sheet and leverage

Material improvement in leverage increases resilience, lowers interest burden and enables investment-grade financing access. A healthier balance sheet supports capital allocation choices and cushions downside during lower commodity prices, though capital intensity keeps leverage cyclical.

Transformational HG acquisition expands scale and cuts costs

Acquisition materially increases high‑confidence inventory, scale and production optionality while targeting ~10% cash cost reduction (~$0.25/Mcfe). This structural expansion enhances capital efficiency, lengthens development runway and improves long‑term margin sustainability.

Negative Factors

High commodity and NGL price sensitivity

Large NGL and gas price swings translate into material free cash flow volatility, undermining predictability of deleveraging and returns. Even with hedges for gas volumes, NGL exposure and global petrochemical demand cycles create persistent earnings and cashflow cyclicality.

Acquisition and financing execution risk tied to asset sales

Key balance sheet actions and debt redemptions depend on completing asset sales and acquisition funding. If divestiture or closing conditions slip, the company could face elevated leverage, mandatory redemptions or greater reliance on revolver liquidity, raising execution and timing risk.

Midstream constraints on some acquired volumes

Acquired production faces takeaway limitations that necessitate incremental midstream capex and phased buildouts. Until capacity is secured, new volumes may underperform economics and add integration capex, creating timing and execution risk for realizing full acquisition synergies.

Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations. It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Antero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.

Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows a meaningful rebound in profitability (net margin ~12%) and strong cash generation (free cash flow up sharply, with solid cash conversion). Leverage has improved (debt-to-equity down to ~0.47), but multi-year results and cash flows remain notably cyclical for a commodity-exposed E&P business, which caps the score.

Income Statement

Profitability has rebounded meaningfully: net income improved from a small profit in 2024 to a much stronger level in 2025, with net margin rising to ~12% (vs. ~1% in 2024). Revenue also returned to growth in 2025 after modest decline in 2024. However, results have been highly cyclical over the period (large losses in 2020 and a loss in 2021, very strong 2022, then weaker 2023–2024 before the 2025 rebound), which increases earnings volatility risk for an E&P business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and trending better, with debt-to-equity improving from ~0.97 (2020–2021) to ~0.47 in 2025, supported by higher equity and lower debt. Returns to shareholders have also recovered (ROE ~8% in 2025 vs. ~1% in 2024), but remain well below the peak level seen in 2022. The key weakness is that this is still a capital-intensive, commodity-exposed balance sheet, and profitability swings can quickly pressure leverage metrics in downcycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow were both strong in 2025 and improved sharply versus 2024, with free cash flow growth up ~25%. Cash conversion also looks solid, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (and generally strong conversion in prior years). The main concern is variability—cash flow coverage was weaker in 2023–2024 versus 2022, reflecting sensitivity to the commodity cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.28B	4.12B	4.28B	8.30B	5.79B
Gross Profit	1.17B	327.33M	612.47M	4.59B	2.26B
EBITDA	1.69B	859.55M	1.23B	3.29B	699.51M
Net Income	634.42M	57.23M	198.40M	1.87B	-186.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.29B	13.01B	13.52B	14.12B	13.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	210.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	5.14B	4.03B	4.51B	4.63B	5.55B
Total Liabilities	6.57B	5.79B	6.38B	7.10B	7.83B
Stockholders Equity	7.55B	7.02B	6.90B	6.75B	5.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.24B	747.36M	827.20M	2.89B	1.55B
Operating Cash Flow	1.63B	849.29M	994.72M	3.05B	1.66B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.08B	-714.15M	-1.14B	-943.61M	-710.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-343.12M	-135.13M	146.05M	-2.11B	-949.33M

Antero Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.50, above the 50-day MA of 34.09, and above the 200-day MA of 34.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.

Antero Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PR	77 Outperform	$14.66B	16.14	8.58%	4.27%	7.55%	-34.40%
CHRD	76 Outperform	$5.81B	39.52	2.02%	5.73%	8.43%	-86.63%
APA	73 Outperform	$10.15B	6.88	27.24%	3.80%	4.88%	-41.34%
AR	72 Outperform	$10.44B	17.27	8.71%	―	17.05%	1028.81%
RRC	71 Outperform	$8.89B	15.76	14.18%	1.00%	23.88%	20.55%
OVV	69 Neutral	$13.91B	53.78	2.26%	3.16%	-8.07%	-87.88%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Antero Resources Corporate Events

Antero Resources Plans Redemption Tied to Ohio Asset Sale

On February 9, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation issued a conditional notice to fully redeem its 7.625% senior notes due 2029, covering $365.4 million in outstanding principal, at 101.271% of par plus accrued interest, with a planned redemption date of February 24, 2026. The redemption is contingent on closing the divestiture of substantially all of Antero’s Ohio Utica Shale oil and gas assets and on the board’s continued support for the move, underscoring that the company’s planned balance sheet actions are closely tied to its asset sale strategy and subject to execution risk.

The most recent analyst rating on (AR) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Resources stock, see the AR Stock Forecast page.

Antero Resources Secures $1.5 Billion Term Loan Facility

On February 3, 2026, Antero Resources entered into an unsecured Term Loan A credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada and a syndicate of lenders, drawing $1.5 billion in a single borrowing to partially finance its previously announced Antero Resources HG acquisition; the facility, which matures on February 3, 2029, is not guaranteed by subsidiaries and carries variable-rate interest based on Term SOFR or an alternate base rate plus a margin tied to the company’s senior unsecured credit rating. The loan includes a leverage-based financial covenant capping total indebtedness to capitalization at 65% and imposes customary restrictions on mergers, additional indebtedness, liens, restricted payments and affiliate transactions, underscoring the company’s intent to fund strategic growth while maintaining credit discipline; separately, on December 22, 2025, the parties to the HG acquisition amended their purchase agreement to update certain annexes, refining the transaction’s terms ahead of closing.

The most recent analyst rating on (AR) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Resources stock, see the AR Stock Forecast page.

Antero Resources completes notes offering for acquisition funding

On January 28, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation completed a $750 million underwritten public offering of 5.400% senior unsecured notes due 2036, which pay interest semiannually and rank equally with the company’s other senior unsecured debt but are structurally subordinated to obligations at its subsidiaries. The notes, issued under a new indenture with typical covenants and redemption provisions, are intended to help fund Antero’s planned acquisition of HG Energy II Production Holdings, LLC alongside a new term loan facility, with remaining acquisition costs to be covered by proceeds from the sale of substantially all of Antero’s and certain subsidiaries’ Utica Shale oil and gas assets, or, if timing requires, its revolving credit facility and cash on hand, after which Utica sale proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes including debt repayment; if the HG acquisition does not close by the agreed outside date or is terminated, Antero must redeem all of the notes at 101% of principal plus accrued interest, underscoring deal-contingent financing risk for noteholders and tying the company’s capital structure moves closely to its strategic portfolio shift.

The most recent analyst rating on (AR) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Resources stock, see the AR Stock Forecast page.

Antero Resources Announces Senior Notes Offering for Acquisition

On January 13, 2026, Antero Resources priced an underwritten public offering of $750 million in 5.40% senior unsecured notes due 2036, with the transaction expected to close on January 28, 2026 and generate approximately $743 million in net proceeds. The company plans to use the bulk of the proceeds, alongside additional debt financing and asset sale proceeds, to help fund its pending acquisition of HG Energy II Production Holdings and related costs, underscoring an expansion strategy that will reshape its asset base while increasing leverage and execution risk around the completion and integration of both the HG acquisition and the planned Utica Shale asset disposition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AR) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Resources stock, see the AR Stock Forecast page.

Antero Resources Acquires HG Energy II Assets

On December 5, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced a strategic acquisition of HG Energy II’s upstream and midstream assets for a total of $3.9 billion, aiming to expand its core Marcellus Shale footprint and enhance its production capabilities. Concurrently, Antero plans to divest its non-core Ohio Utica Shale assets for $1.2 billion, with both transactions expected to close in the first half of 2026. These moves are designed to optimize Antero’s asset portfolio, improve financial metrics, and maintain an investment-grade balance sheet, while generating significant free cash flow and reducing leverage.

The most recent analyst rating on (AR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Antero Resources stock, see the AR Stock Forecast page.