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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(10.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably free cash flow) and a positive earnings call outlining measurable cost and margin improvement levers. Valuation appears reasonable on earnings, while technicals are mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages and key momentum indicators unavailable; corporate events are modestly supportive via added liquidity and stable governance.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Antero's strong trailing-twelve-month free cash flow underpins durable financial flexibility: it funds bolt-on M&A, share repurchases, and deleveraging without relying solely on commodity-driven earnings. Persistent FCF improves resilience through cycles and supports long-term capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Commodity price cyclicality
Material dependency on Henry Hub prices drives capital timing and cash flow volatility: management may defer completions or growth unless realized gas exceeds thresholds (~$3/Mmbtu). Prolonged low prices can delay volume and margin realization and constrain long-term project economics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Antero's strong trailing-twelve-month free cash flow underpins durable financial flexibility: it funds bolt-on M&A, share repurchases, and deleveraging without relying solely on commodity-driven earnings. Persistent FCF improves resilience through cycles and supports long-term capital allocation.
Read all positive factors
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAntero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth20.84%
EPS Growth141.73%
CountryUS
Employees632
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.51
Shares Outstanding307,439,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,409,592
30 Day Avg. Volume4,682,178
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.62Price Target Upside37.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.63B
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antero Resources Corporation functions as an independent energy enterprise, primarily engaged in identifying, acquiring, developing, and extracting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil deposits throughout the United States. As of...
How the Company Makes Money
Antero Resources makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—primarily natural gas, along with natural gas liquids (such as ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline) and some crude oil/condensate—from its operated wells. Revenue is reco...
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and financial improvements — record production, a 57% adjusted EBITDA increase, $220M free cash flow, strong NGL pricing, accretive bolt-ons and demonstrable dry‑gas well outperformance — alongside a formal plan to reduce cash costs >25% to $2/Mcfe and $300M of margin enhancements. Offsetting items include weaker Henry Hub pricing (down ~16% YoY), expected lower in‑basin price realizations (~$0.35/Mcfe), shipping cost headwinds, and execution/timing risk around in‑basin demand projects and the phased nature of contractual optimizations. Overall, the company presented substantial progress and optionality with identifiable near‑ and multi‑year levers to improve margins and cash flow, while acknowledging timing and price dependencies that could moderate near‑term upside.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Volume Growth
Company record quarterly production averaged >4.1 Bcfe/d, up 21% year-over-year; net production increased from 3.3 Bcfe/d at the start of 2025 to an expected 4.5 Bcfe/d exit in 2026 (≈36% growth).
Negative Updates
Weaker Henry Hub Pricing
Henry Hub natural gas prices were down ~16% year-over-year; management noted commodity price weakness as a driver for cautious completion timing and potential pacing of growth capital.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Volume Growth
Company record quarterly production averaged >4.1 Bcfe/d, up 21% year-over-year; net production increased from 3.3 Bcfe/d at the start of 2025 to an expected 4.5 Bcfe/d exit in 2026 (≈36% growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Antero's guidance centers on a structural cost roadmap to cut cash costs by over 25% to $2.00/Mcfe by year‑end 2028 (a $0.70/Mcfe cash‑cost improvement partly offset by ~$0.35/Mcfe lower in‑basin realizations), targeting roughly $300M of annual margin improvement (including $60M uplift starting Q3‑26 from the dissolved ORI/Martica, $30M when the VPP expires July‑2027, $105M from liquids transport optimization by end‑2028 and $105M from gas FT optimization/dry‑gas development); near‑term metrics include record Q2 production >4.1 Bcfe/d (+21% YoY) and a planned 2026 exit rate of ~4.5 Bcfe/d (+36% since early‑2025), adjusted EBITDA +57% YoY with $220M free cash flow (used to repurchase 1.1M shares for $38M), cash operating costs down $0.29/Mcfe (‑11% YoY), $315M of July acquisitions adding ~125 MMcfe/d and 15 net locations, 2026 maintenance CapEx ~$1B (growth plan $1.2B, currently modestly north of $1B with completion spend back‑loaded to Q4 and discretionary unless gas >$3), and hedging around ~60% for 2026 and ~34% for 2027 (swaps near $3.84 and collars ~ $3.50–$4.50).Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.84B | 5.01B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 2.66B | 1.11B | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| EBITDA | 2.15B | 1.73B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 634.42M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.23B | 14.29B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 210.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 4.62B | 5.14B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.92B | 6.57B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.32B | 7.55B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.96B | 1.24B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.98B | 1.63B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.30B | -1.08B | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.32B | -343.12M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
35.28
Price Trends
34.94
Positive
37.16
Negative
35.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
54.76
Neutral
82.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.40, above the 50-day MA of 34.94, and below the 200-day MA of 35.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.24B | 11.03 | 19.30% | 0.98% | 16.84% | 82.31% | |
73 Outperform | $10.85B | 10.30 | 13.86% | ― | 20.84% | 141.73% | |
73 Outperform | $17.58B | 23.76 | 6.32% | 2.90% | -1.12% | -48.40% | |
71 Outperform | $12.84B | 8.70 | 25.11% | 2.77% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
70 Outperform | $16.98B | 17.69 | 8.27% | 1.90% | 6.17% | 57.64% | |
69 Neutral | $7.78B | -133.70 | -0.83% | 3.76% | -0.99% | -107.05% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
AR
Antero Resources
36.14
2.47
7.34%
APA
APA
37.32
19.48
109.23%
OVV
Ovintiv
62.46
24.03
62.52%
RRC
Range Resources
40.14
4.88
13.86%
PR
Permian Resources
21.31
8.18
62.34%
CHRD
Chord Energy
140.38
39.30
38.88%
Antero Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Antero Resources Highlights Investor Outreach at JPM Conference
Neutral
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation announced that it would participate in the J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference, an event focused on energy, power, renewables, and mining. The company made its presentation materials available on...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Antero Resources Establishes New $1.65 Billion Commercial Paper Program
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation established a new commercial paper program that allows it to issue up to $1.65 billion of short-term, unsecured notes in the U.S. commercial paper market, with maturities of up to 397 days. The notes,...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Antero Resources Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay Plans
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its June 3, 2026 annual meeting, Antero Resources stockholders elected Brenda R. Schroer and Thomas B. Tyree Jr. as Class I directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, solidifying the company’s board leadership for the next three-ye...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Antero Resources Releases Updated Investor Presentation for Stakeholders
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Antero Resources Corporation posted an updated investor presentation on its corporate website, providing refreshed information for shareholders and analysts. The move underscores the company’s ongoing effort to maintain tran...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.