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Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:―
Antero Resources scores a 67 due to strong cash flow and strategic financial maneuvers, as highlighted in their earnings call. However, the stock faces challenges with high leverage, valuation concerns, and mixed technical indicators. The positive earnings call offsets some financial and valuation risks, but ongoing market uncertainties and revenue volatility remain key considerations.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
Improved drilling and completion efficiencies enhance production capabilities, reducing costs and increasing output, which supports long-term growth.
Debt Reduction
Significant debt reduction strengthens the balance sheet, improving financial stability and reducing interest expenses, which enhances future profitability.
NGL Pricing Premium
Securing premium pricing for NGLs boosts revenue potential, enhancing competitive positioning and profitability in the long run.
Negative Factors
Revenue Volatility
Volatile revenue trends can hinder strategic planning and investment, posing risks to sustained growth and financial performance.
High Leverage
High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility in capital allocation and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Natural Gas Market Uncertainty
Market uncertainties can affect pricing and demand for natural gas, impacting revenue stability and strategic planning.
Antero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.9
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth17.05%
EPS Growth1028.81%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding308,494,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,619,190
30 Day Avg. Volume4,618,109
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio14.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.93Price Target Upside25.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.10B
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 502,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and 174,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. The company also owned and operated 494 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin; and 21 compressor stations. It had estimated proved reserves of 17.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, including 10.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; 718 million barrels of assumed recovered ethane; 501 million barrels of primarily propane, isobutane, normal butane, and natural gasoline; and 36 million barrels of oil. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Shows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataAntero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Antero Resources reported strong operational performance in Q3 2025, with record-setting achievements and strategic land expansions in the Marcellus region. The company's financial health is supported by increased free cash flow and a prudent hedging strategy. However, the NGL pricing environment remains challenging, and there is uncertainty surrounding the potential sale of Ohio assets.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Operational Performance
The third quarter of 2025 was described as the most impressive operating performance to date for Antero Resources, with numerous company records set including a quarterly record of 14.5 completion stages per day.
Strategic Land Acquisitions
Antero has expanded its core Marcellus position in West Virginia through bolt-on transactions and organic leasing, enhancing its strategic initiatives to capitalize on increasing demand for natural gas.
Increased Free Cash Flow
Antero generated over $90 million in free cash flow during the third quarter, contributing to almost $600 million year-to-date, which has been used for debt reduction, stock repurchases, and asset acquisitions.
Positive Outlook for NGLs and Natural Gas
Market trends indicate improving NGL fundamentals, with higher prices expected due to slowing supply growth and increased export capacity. Natural gas demand is projected to increase significantly with new LNG capacity additions.
Hedging Strategy for Stability
Antero has hedged 24% of its expected natural gas volumes for 2026 with swaps at $3.82/MMBtu, securing a base level free cash flow yield of 6% to 9% at natural gas prices between $2 and $3.
Negative Updates
Challenging NGL Pricing Environment
Despite improvements, the NGL pricing environment remains challenging, although the percentage of WTI has improved from 54% in 2024 to 60% in 2025.
Potential Asset Sale Uncertainty
Antero is in the process of marketing its Ohio assets, which are highly coveted, but there is no certainty regarding the outcome or the potential impact on the company's financials.
Company Guidance
During the Antero Resources Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Antero is strategically positioned to benefit from rising natural gas demand driven by U.S. LNG exports and power generation, particularly through its Marcellus core in West Virginia. The company achieved record drilling and completion results, with 14.5 completion stages per day and a world record for continuous pumping hours. Antero has hedged 24% of its expected 2026 natural gas volumes at $3.82/MMBtu, which supports a free cash flow yield of 6% to 9% at prices between $2 and $3/MMBtu. NGL fundamentals are improving, with U.S. propane exports increasing by 120,000 barrels per day in 2025. Additionally, Antero's free cash flow for the quarter was $90 million, contributing to $600 million year-to-date. The company has focused its free cash flow on debt reduction, stock repurchases, and asset acquisitions, ensuring value creation and maintaining strategic flexibility.Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Resources shows strengths in cash flow management and a stable equity position. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage, and needs improvement in profitability and operational efficiency.Income Statement
Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.92B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B | 3.08B |
| Gross Profit | 954.21M | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B | -514.44M |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M | -592.73M |
| Net Income | 547.72M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M | -1.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.91B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B | 5.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.39B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B | 7.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.35B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B | 5.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B | 687.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.54B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B | 735.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -980.09M | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M | -530.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -558.10M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M | -205.58M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
35.08
Price Trends
32.97
Positive
33.20
Positive
35.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.59
Negative
60.57
Neutral
64.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.17, above the 50-day MA of 32.97, and below the 200-day MA of 35.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $9.32B | 16.39 | 14.18% | 0.89% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
77 Outperform | $11.36B | 12.50 | 8.58% | 4.95% | 7.55% | -34.40% | |
73 Outperform | $8.53B | 6.00 | 27.24% | 4.16% | 4.88% | -41.34% | |
68 Neutral | $5.20B | 35.65 | 2.02% | 5.65% | 8.43% | -86.63% | |
67 Neutral | $10.38B | 19.91 | 7.65% | ― | 17.05% | 1028.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $9.92B | 42.82 | 2.26% | 3.22% | -8.07% | -87.88% |
* Energy Sector Average
AR
Antero Resources
35.08
1.68
5.03%
APA
APA
24.05
2.74
12.86%
OVV
Ovintiv
39.15
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-13.44%
RRC
Range Resources
39.32
4.08
11.58%
PR
Permian Resources
14.02
-1.46
-9.43%
CHRD
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91.40
-32.67
-26.33%
Antero Resources Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025
On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.