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Antero Resources (AR)
NYSE:AR
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Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Buyback Strategy
The company repurchased shares at an 8% discount to the average share price during the quarter, with substantial remaining buyback authorization.
Operational Efficiency
AR provided a more efficient 2025 outlook, reducing its total capex guidance by 1.6% and increasing its total production guidance by 0.7% due to continued operational efficiencies and better than expected well performance.
Negative Factors
Commodity Pricing
Due to weaker than expected 2Q25 pricing, AR reduced its annual C3+ NGL realized price guidance by 25.0% to a premium of $1.00-$2.00/bbl.
Earnings Impact
Lower average realized commodity prices and higher operating expenses are expected to impact earnings per share estimates.
Antero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.29B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.0
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth6.67%
EPS Growth240.70%
CountryUS
Employees616
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength49
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding308,931,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,589,827
30 Day Avg. Volume5,532,439
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)2.51
P/FCF Ratio14.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.85Price Target Upside41.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAntero Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company headquartered in Denver, Colorado. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and acquisition of unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the Appalachian Basin. Antero Resources focuses on the extraction of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil, with significant operations in the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale formations.
How the Company Makes MoneyAntero Resources makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil. The company's revenue model is centered around the extraction and sale of these commodities from its extensive assets in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is generated through the sale of natural gas and NGLs to a diverse customer base, including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Antero Resources also benefits from strategic midstream partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its distribution capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through infrastructure and transportation services. Additionally, the company engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, which can impact its overall earnings.
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -2.19%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Antero Resources highlighted several positive developments, including increased production efficiency, a robust hedging strategy, and strong NGL and LNG market positioning. Despite a slight reduction in NGL price guidance and a temporary shift in production mix, the company's strategic initiatives in debt reduction and share repurchases reflect strong financial management.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production Guidance with Decreased CapEx
For the second consecutive year, Antero increased its production guidance by 5% while decreasing maintenance capital requirements by 26% from $900 million to $663 million.
Efficient Hedging Strategy
Antero added wide natural gas costless collars for 2026 with a floor price of $3.14 and a ceiling of $6.31, hedging approximately 20% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026.
Strong NGL Pricing and Export Performance
Antero's C3+ realizations improved year-over-year, averaging 59% of WTI. U.S. propane exports increased 6% year-over-year, averaging over 1.8 million barrels per day.
Strategic Share Repurchases and Debt Reduction
Antero executed $260 million of free cash flow, with nearly $200 million used to reduce debt and $150 million for share repurchases.
Positive LNG Market Trends
Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility reached a daily record feedgas of over 2.9 Bcf per day, with future LNG demand expected to increase by another 8 Bcf a day.
Negative Updates
Slight Reduction in NGL Price Guidance
Antero reduced its full-year NGL price guidance slightly due to second-quarter inventory adjustments.
Second Quarter Gassier Production Mix
Production in the second quarter was more gas-heavy compared to prior quarters due to lean gas pads, affecting the overall production mix.
Company Guidance
During Antero Resources' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic updates. Antero has increased its production guidance with a 5% rise in their maintenance production target from under 3.3 Bcf equivalent per day in 2023 to over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day, while reducing maintenance capital by 26% from $900 million to $663 million. The company also boasts the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe among peers at $0.53 per Mcfe, 27% below the peer average. Additionally, Antero has hedged approximately 20% of its expected natural gas volumes through 2026 with costless collars, securing floor and ceiling prices of $3.14 and $6.31, respectively, thereby reducing their 2026 free cash flow breakeven to $1.75 per Mcf. In terms of liquids pricing, Antero's C3+ realizations averaged 59% of WTI, showing an improvement from 50% in the previous year, and they anticipate premiums of $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel for the second half of 2025. The company also reported a robust free cash flow generation of $260 million in the quarter, with $200 million used to reduce debt, and highlighted their opportunistic approach to share repurchases.Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Antero Resources shows strengths in cash flow management and a stable equity position. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility and high leverage, and needs improvement in profitability and operational efficiency.Income Statement
Antero Resources showed inconsistent revenue trends, with a significant drop from 2022 to 2024. Gross and net profit margins are volatile, with a recent net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position but a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage. The equity ratio indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. While the return on equity has been negative recently, the company maintains substantial asset backing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust, supporting free cash flow despite recent net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash management. However, fluctuating cash flow trends pose a risk.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.84B | 4.33B | 4.28B | 8.29B | 5.79B | 3.08B |
| Gross Profit | 5.37B | 4.00B | 669.35M | 4.62B | 2.25B | -514.44M |
| EBITDA | 1.37B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M | -592.73M |
| Net Income | 251.20M | 57.23M | 242.92M | 1.90B | -154.11M | -1.26B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.77B | 13.01B | 13.62B | 14.12B | 13.90B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -3.45B | -3.42B | -2.61B |
| Total Debt | 3.49B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B | 5.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.28B | 5.79B | 6.41B | 7.10B | 7.83B | 7.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.31B | 7.02B | 6.98B | 6.75B | 5.76B | 5.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.56B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B | 687.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.39B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B | 735.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -705.41M | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M | -530.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -688.87M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M | -205.58M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
33.08
Price Trends
37.28
Negative
37.33
Negative
35.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.20
Negative
39.18
Neutral
32.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.18, below the 50-day MA of 37.28, and below the 200-day MA of 35.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (45)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $10.86B | 8.82 | 12.84% | 4.98% | 37.00% | 44.18% | |
74 Outperform | $10.31B | 17.75 | 5.75% | 3.08% | -12.92% | -68.16% | |
72 Outperform | $20.75B | 7.24 | 20.60% | 3.52% | 12.06% | -16.37% | |
72 Outperform | $8.35B | 17.64 | 11.99% | 0.98% | 19.95% | 0.94% | |
67 Neutral | $10.29B | 23.00 | 6.31% | ― | 6.67% | 240.70% | |
45 Neutral | AU$1.32B | -8.62 | -15.56% | 7.70% | 2.10% | -32.50% | |
42 Neutral | $4.77B | ― | -3.18% | 0.66% | 17.60% | -385.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AR
Antero Resources
33.08
6.53
24.60%
CRK
Comstock Resources
16.08
6.44
66.80%
DVN
Devon Energy
32.39
-11.31
-25.88%
OVV
Ovintiv
38.90
-2.31
-5.61%
RRC
Range Resources
34.87
5.53
18.85%
PR
Permian Resources
13.24
-0.64
-4.61%
Antero Resources Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Antero Resources Announces Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025
On February 18, 2025, Antero Resources Corporation announced the full redemption of its 8.375% senior notes due in 2026, amounting to $96.87 million. The redemption will occur on March 5, 2025, at a price of 102.094% of the principal plus accrued interest, potentially impacting its financial obligations and investor relations.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.