Ovintiv (OVV)
NYSE:OVV
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Ovintiv
(NYSE:OVV)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$67.00
â–²(11.41% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven by strong momentum/price trend signals and a constructive earnings call focused on deleveraging and sizable shareholder returns. Financials are solid בעיקר due to cash generation, but are tempered by declining revenue and commodity-cycle sensitivity. Valuation remains supportive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, material operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, funds the $3B buyback and high shareholder return policy, supports debt paydown and cushions commodity swings. Historical OCF ($3.1B–$4.2B) signals a reliable cash engine.
Negative Factors
Revenue trend
A multi‑year revenue decline weakens scale and economies of scale, making margins and cash flow more sensitive to commodity swings. Even with 2025 profit recovery, persistent top‑line erosion raises questions about organic growth capacity and long‑term earnings resilience absent higher prices or new volumes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, material operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, funds the $3B buyback and high shareholder return policy, supports debt paydown and cushions commodity swings. Historical OCF ($3.1B–$4.2B) signals a reliable cash engine.
Read all positive factors
Ovintiv (OVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.04B
Dividend Yield3.16%
Average Volume (3M)5.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-8.07%
EPS Growth-87.88%
CountryUS
Employees1,623
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.39
Shares Outstanding283,335,450
10 Day Avg. Volume5,647,523
30 Day Avg. Volume5,496,199
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio6.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$59.17Price Target Upside-1.62% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)5.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.44B
Ovintiv Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ovintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. It operates through USA Operations, Canadian Operations, and Market Optimization segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Ovintiv primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil/condensate, natural gas, and NGLs—into North American commodity markets. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes from its operated and non-operated wells...
Ovintiv Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial execution, meaningful deleveraging, and operational improvements (cost reductions, productivity gains, and inventory expansion). Management completed major portfolio moves (NuVista acquisition, Anadarko sale agreement) to concentrate in the Permian and Montney, enabling a large authorized $3 billion buyback and a commitment to return at least 75% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders. Near-term negatives include a material reduction in 2026 volumes versus prior guidance due to the Anadarko sale (~70,000 BOE/d), temporary Montney plant turnarounds in Q2, and some incremental T&P costs tied to Montney weighting. Overall the positives (strong cash generation, lower leverage, operational outperformance, and aggressive shareholder returns) dominate the call, while the lowlights are mostly timing and transactional or short-term operational impacts.Positive Updates
Strong 2025 Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow
Full year 2025 cash flow of $3.8 billion and free cash flow of more than $1.6 billion; returned over $600 million to shareholders during 2025. Q4 free cash flow was $508 million.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Production Reduction from Anadarko Sale and NuVista Timing
Pro forma 2026 volumes (620,000–645,000 BOE/d) are lower than the November preliminary outlook of ~715,000 BOE/d. Management cites ~70,000 BOE/d reduction from the Anadarko sale and ~10,000 BOE/d timing impact from the NuVista closing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong 2025 Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow
Full year 2025 cash flow of $3.8 billion and free cash flow of more than $1.6 billion; returned over $600 million to shareholders during 2025. Q4 free cash flow was $508 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ovintiv guided 2026 production (including one quarter of Anadarko) of 620,000–645,000 BOE/d with oil & condensate of about 209,000 bbl/d and natural gas >2 Bcf/d, backed by ~$2.3 billion of planned capital; Q1 is expected to be the year high at ~670,000 BOE/d (≈223,000 bbl/d oil & condensate) with Q1 capex of ~ $625 million (including ~$50 million of Anadarko spend) and an estimated 3–4k BOE/d cold‑weather impact in January. Asset run‑rates and activity include roughly 120,000 bbl/d oil & condensate in the Permian (≈130 net wells in 2026) and ~85,000 bbl/d in the Montney (guidance 83–87k bbl/d and 1.75–1.85 Bcf/d gas, ≈135 net turn‑in lines), with cost targets of < $600/ft D&C in the Permian and < $500/ft D&C in the Montney (each ≈$25/ft lower than 2025). Pro forma net debt after the Anadarko sale is expected to be about $3.6 billion (no long‑term maturities before 2030) with ~$40 million of annualized interest savings from repaying 2028 notes (on top of $25 million saved from earlier 2026 note retirements), and the company will allocate at least 75% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders (long‑term policy 50–100%) with a Board‑authorized $3 billion buyback program to commence immediately.Ovintiv Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.74B | 9.15B | 10.88B | 12.46B | 8.66B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 4.98B | 5.90B | 6.88B | 4.22B |
| EBITDA | 3.35B | 4.05B | 4.69B | 4.98B | 2.77B |
| Net Income | 1.24B | 1.13B | 2.08B | 3.64B | 1.42B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.39B | 19.25B | 19.99B | 15.06B | 14.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.00M | 42.00M | 3.00M | 5.00M | 195.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.53B | 6.29B | 6.68B | 4.49B | 5.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.20B | 8.92B | 9.62B | 7.37B | 8.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.20B | 10.33B | 10.37B | 7.69B | 5.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.42B | 1.42B | 2.04B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.65B | 3.72B | 4.17B | 3.87B | 3.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.88B | -2.46B | -5.52B | -1.79B | -525.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -762.00M | -1.23B | 1.36B | -2.27B | -2.42B |
Ovintiv Technical Analysis
Positive
60.14
Price Trends
48.38
Positive
43.55
Positive
41.43
Positive
Market Momentum
2.92
Negative
81.98
Negative
90.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OVV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.28, above the 50-day MA of 48.38, and above the 200-day MA of 41.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OVV.
Ovintiv Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $17.49B | 7.70 | 9.56% | 4.27% | 7.55% | -34.40% | |
78 Outperform | $7.59B | 6.96 | 13.92% | 3.14% | 14.77% | -17.38% | |
74 Outperform | $17.04B | 8.12 | 11.86% | 3.16% | -8.07% | -87.88% | |
74 Outperform | $13.78B | 16.82 | 8.63% | ― | 17.05% | 1028.81% | |
72 Outperform | $14.60B | 6.12 | 24.51% | 3.80% | 4.88% | -41.34% | |
72 Outperform | $10.97B | 12.75 | 15.87% | 1.00% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
OVV
Ovintiv
60.14
18.00
42.71%
APA
APA
41.32
21.16
104.98%
MTDR
Matador Resources
61.05
11.13
22.29%
RRC
Range Resources
46.59
8.17
21.27%
AR
Antero Resources
44.67
5.14
13.00%
PR
Permian Resources
20.92
7.53
56.19%
Ovintiv Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Announces Enhanced 2026 Shareholder Return Framework
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
In 2025, Ovintiv generated $3.7 billion in cash from operating activities, $1.6 billion in Non-GAAP free cash flow and average production of 615 MBOE/d, while returning about $612 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. It reported...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ovintiv to Divest Oklahoma Oil and Gas Assets
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ovintiv subsidiaries Ovintiv USA Inc. and Ovintiv Royalty Holdings LLC agreed to sell certain Oklahoma oil and gas assets for $3.0 billion in cash to MidCon II BuyerCo, LLC via the sale of equity in a newly formed Texas LLC. ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Sells Anadarko Basin Assets to Refocus Portfolio
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ovintiv Inc. announced it had signed a definitive agreement to sell its Anadarko Basin assets in Oklahoma to an undisclosed buyer for $3.0 billion in cash. The package comprises about 360,000 net acres, representing nearly al...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ovintiv Closes NuVista Acquisition, Expands Alberta Montney Position
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Ovintiv Canada ULC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ovintiv Inc., closed its C$2.7 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of all common shares of Canada’s NuVista Energy Ltd., following a November 4, 2025 arrangement agreement ...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Ovintiv Sets Record Date for 2026 Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
Ovintiv Inc. has scheduled its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders for May 6, 2026, and set March 9, 2026 as the record date for determining holders of its common stock entitled to receive notice of and vote at the meeting. The company has notifie...
Executive/Board Changes
Ovintiv Appoints Gregory Hill to Independent Board Seat
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Ovintiv Inc. announced the appointment of Gregory P. Hill as an independent member of its board of directors, effective January 30, 2026, increasing the board size to twelve directors. Hill, who retired in 2025 as President, W...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ovintiv wins Canadian approval for NuVista Energy acquisition
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, NuVista Energy and Ovintiv announced that the Government of Canada had approved Ovintiv’s previously disclosed stock-and-cash acquisition of NuVista under the Investment Canada Act, following earlier clearance under the ...
M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Ovintiv Wins NuVista Shareholder Approval for Acquisition
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 23, 2026, NuVista Energy shareholders overwhelmingly approved, with about 99% of votes cast in favor, a previously announced stock-and-cash acquisition by Ovintiv Inc., and the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta granted the final or...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.