tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Ovintiv (OVV)
NYSE:OVV

Ovintiv (OVV) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,910 Followers

Top Page

OVV

Ovintiv

(NYSE:OVV)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(0.83% Upside)
Ovintiv's overall stock score reflects a balance between strong strategic initiatives and current financial challenges. The positive impact of the NuVista acquisition and efficiency improvements is tempered by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition of NuVista Energy is expected to enhance Ovintiv's financial metrics and add significant inventory, bolstering its position in key basins.
LNG Export Agreement
This agreement provides Ovintiv with access to additional export markets, enhancing its market reach and supporting long-term growth in LNG exports.
Operational Efficiency
Improved capital efficiency and increased production guidance demonstrate effective cost management and operational strength, supporting long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
A declining revenue growth rate reflects challenges in market conditions, which could impact Ovintiv's ability to sustain long-term financial performance.
Reduced Free Cash Flow
Reduced free cash flow generation indicates potential constraints in cash availability, affecting Ovintiv's ability to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders.
Paused Share Buyback Program
Pausing the share buyback program may impact immediate shareholder returns and reflects financial prioritization challenges amid strategic acquisitions.

Ovintiv (OVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ovintiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOvintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. It operates through USA Operations, Canadian Operations, and Market Optimization segments. The company's principal assets include Permian in west Texas and Anadarko in west-central Oklahoma; and Montney in northeast British Columbia and northwest Alberta. Its other upstream assets comprise Bakken in North Dakota, and Uinta in central Utah; and Horn River in northeast British Columbia, and Wheatland in southern Alberta. The company was formerly known as Encana Corporation and changed its name to Ovintiv Inc. in January 2020. Ovintiv Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyOvintiv generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced from its operations. The company operates under a revenue model that involves direct sales to customers, including major oil and gas companies, refiners, and marketers, as well as through contracts that may lock in prices for certain periods. Key revenue streams include upstream production activities, where Ovintiv sells hydrocarbons at market prices, and potentially midstream services, where applicable. The company benefits from significant partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and resource access, contributing to its overall earnings. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices, production levels, and operational efficiencies significantly impact Ovintiv's financial performance.

Ovintiv Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Ovintiv's strategic growth through the acquisition of NuVista Energy and strong financial performance, with effective cost management and inventory growth in key regions. However, the pause in the share buyback program and the planned sale of Anadarko assets introduce uncertainties, particularly in market conditions and immediate shareholder returns. Overall, the positive aspects of growth and efficiency improvements outweigh the concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
NuVista Energy Acquisition
Ovintiv has entered into an agreement to acquire NuVista Energy, adding significant inventory in the Montney oil window. The transaction is expected to boost free cash flow per share by 10% and is leverage-neutral at closing.
Strong Financial Performance
Ovintiv delivered cash flow per share of $3.47 and free cash flow of $351 million, both exceeding consensus estimates. The company reduced net debt by $126 million and returned approximately $235 million to shareholders.
Montney and Permian Growth
Ovintiv has increased its Permian and Montney drilling inventory by more than 3,200 locations since 2023. The company plans to divest Anadarko assets to accelerate debt reduction, aiming to be below $4 billion in debt by the end of 2026.
Efficiency Improvements
Ovintiv achieved capital efficiency by lowering full-year capital by $50 million due to efficiency savings. Updated full-year guidance includes a 10,000 BOE per day increase in production for $50 million less in capital.
AECO Exposure Reduction
The NuVista acquisition is expected to reduce Ovintiv's AECO exposure from 30% to 25% by 2026, due to diversified market access and firm transportation agreements.
Negative Updates
Paused Share Buyback Program
Ovintiv has paused its share buyback program for two quarters to facilitate the NuVista acquisition, which may impact immediate shareholder returns.
Anadarko Asset Sale
The plan to sell Anadarko assets by the end of 2026 introduces uncertainty in terms of timing and market conditions, which could affect the proceeds and Ovintiv's financial strategy.
Dependence on Market Conditions
Ovintiv's capital allocation strategy is highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions and market demand, particularly for growth investments in the NuVista assets.
Company Guidance
During Ovintiv's 2025 Third Quarter Results Conference Call, the company outlined several strategic initiatives and provided guidance on key metrics. The acquisition of NuVista Energy is expected to enhance Ovintiv's financial metrics, including a 10% increase in go-forward free cash flow per share, while remaining leverage-neutral at closing. The acquisition also adds approximately 930 net well locations to Ovintiv's inventory, bolstering its position in the Montney and Permian basins. Ovintiv plans to divest its Anadarko assets, aiming to reduce net debt below $4 billion by the end of 2026, thereby increasing shareholder returns. The company reported strong third-quarter results, generating $3.47 cash flow per share and $351 million in free cash flow, with production at the high end of guidance ranges. For the full year 2025, Ovintiv increased its production target by 10,000 BOE per day while maintaining capital spending at $465 million for Q4. Additionally, Ovintiv anticipates a $75 million reduction in its 2025 cash tax bill due to internal restructuring and evolving U.S. tax guidelines.

Ovintiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ovintiv's financial statements show strong gross profit margins and a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and profitability metrics, along with reduced free cash flow generation, indicating a need for improved operational efficiency and cash flow generation.
Income Statement
Ovintiv's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate at -2.8%, reflecting challenges in the market. However, the company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 62.9% and a positive net profit margin of 2.6%, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, suggesting potential cost management issues.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 2.3% in the TTM period, showing reduced profitability on equity. The equity ratio stands at 14.0%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights a need for improved profitability.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth rate by -12.6% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.41, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.23, reflecting potential constraints in free cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.90B9.15B10.88B12.46B8.66B6.09B
Gross Profit4.78B4.98B5.90B6.88B4.22B2.71B
EBITDA2.88B4.05B4.69B4.98B2.77B-3.52B
Net Income236.00M1.13B2.08B3.64B1.42B-6.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.39B19.25B19.99B15.06B14.05B14.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments25.00M42.00M3.00M5.00M195.00M10.00M
Total Debt6.43B6.29B6.68B4.49B5.78B8.01B
Total Liabilities9.15B8.92B9.62B7.37B8.98B10.63B
Stockholders Equity10.23B10.33B10.37B7.69B5.07B3.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.49B1.42B1.42B2.04B1.61B159.00M
Operating Cash Flow3.72B3.72B4.17B3.87B3.13B1.90B
Investing Cash Flow-2.45B-2.46B-5.52B-1.79B-525.00M-1.86B
Financing Cash Flow-1.31B-1.23B1.36B-2.27B-2.42B-206.00M

Ovintiv Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price38.68
Price Trends
50DMA
38.83
Negative
100DMA
39.27
Negative
200DMA
38.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.26
Positive
RSI
49.31
Neutral
STOCH
18.14
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OVV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 38.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.68, below the 50-day MA of 38.83, and above the 200-day MA of 38.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OVV.

Ovintiv Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$5.27B6.7615.06%3.14%14.77%-17.38%
77
Outperform
$11.70B12.828.58%4.27%7.55%-34.40%
73
Outperform
$9.00B6.0627.24%3.80%4.88%-41.34%
71
Outperform
$8.03B14.0514.18%1.00%23.88%20.55%
67
Neutral
$9.93B18.437.65%17.05%1028.81%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
60
Neutral
$9.80B42.372.26%3.16%-8.07%-87.88%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OVV
Ovintiv
38.68
-4.61
-10.65%
APA
APA
25.37
2.21
9.54%
MTDR
Matador Resources
42.43
-17.73
-29.47%
RRC
Range Resources
33.90
-4.22
-11.07%
AR
Antero Resources
32.18
-6.12
-15.98%
PR
Permian Resources
14.10
-0.64
-4.32%

Ovintiv Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ovintiv Highlights Pro Forma Data for NuVista Acquisition
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Ovintiv Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary Ovintiv Canada ULC, entered into an Arrangement Agreement to acquire Alberta-based NuVista Energy Ltd. in a stock-and-cash deal to be implemented under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), with closing targeted by the end of the first quarter of 2026. On December 22, 2025, NuVista began mailing its management information circular and proxy materials, which include unaudited pro forma operational data for Ovintiv as of and for the year ended December 31, 2024 and for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, as well as pro forma consolidated capitalization as of September 30, 2025, illustrating the reserves, production and capital structure of the combined company; Ovintiv also detailed how NuVista’s reserves have been adjusted to U.S. standards and highlighted that these pro forma figures are illustrative, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, and carry material execution and integration risks that could affect the transaction’s realization and the anticipated benefits for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Ovintiv Secures LNG Export Deal with Pembina
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

On December 15, 2025, Ovintiv Inc. announced a 12-year agreement with Pembina Pipeline Corporation for 0.5 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility. This agreement allows Ovintiv to export LNG from Canada’s west coast, offering a strategic advantage in accessing Asian markets and supporting global energy security and emissions reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Ovintiv Announces New Chairman as Peter Dea Retires
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Peter Dea announced his retirement from the Ovintiv Board of Directors, effective May 6, 2026, after serving since 2010 and as Chairman since 2020. Steven Nance, with extensive governance and M&A experience, has been elected as the new Chairman, expected to continue strong corporate governance and shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ovintiv Secures $1.2 Billion Term Loan Facility
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

On November 25, 2025, Ovintiv Inc. entered into a Two-Year Term Credit Agreement to secure a $1.2 billion term loan facility. This facility is intended to finance Ovintiv Canada’s acquisition of NuVista Energy Ltd. shares not already owned by Ovintiv Canada. The agreement includes customary covenants and conditions, with a maturity set for two years from the funding date, and interest rates contingent on Ovintiv’s credit ratings.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Ovintiv Announces Acquisition Agreement with NuVista Energy
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Ovintiv Inc., along with its subsidiary Ovintiv Canada ULC, entered into an Arrangement Agreement to acquire NuVista Energy Ltd. in a stock-and-cash transaction. The acquisition, approved by both companies’ boards, involves Ovintiv Canada acquiring all NuVista’s common shares with options for shareholders to receive cash, Ovintiv stock, or a combination of both. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals, and includes provisions for termination fees under certain circumstances.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
Ovintiv to Acquire NuVista Energy for $2.7 Billion
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Ovintiv Inc. announced a definitive agreement to acquire NuVista Energy Ltd. in a stock-and-cash transaction valued at approximately $2.7 billion. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Ovintiv’s position in the Alberta Montney region by adding approximately 140,000 net acres and 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to its portfolio. The transaction is anticipated to be immediately accretive across key financial metrics and generate annual synergies of about $100 million. Additionally, Ovintiv plans to divest its Anadarko assets by the end of 2026 to accelerate debt reduction, aiming to achieve a Non-GAAP Net Debt target of $4 billion, which will enable increased share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Ovintiv Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Ovintiv announced its third quarter financial and operating results, highlighting a cash flow of $895 million and a reduction in net debt by $126 million. The company increased its full-year production guidance while maintaining capital investment, reflecting strong operational performance. Ovintiv also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share payable on December 31, 2025, and received approval for its NCIB program, allowing the purchase of up to 22.3 million shares. The company’s strategic focus on operational excellence and capital efficiency is expected to enhance its market position and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVV) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ovintiv stock, see the OVV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025