Ovintiv (OVV)
NYSE:OVV
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Ovintiv
(NYSE:OVV)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(32.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and a supportive earnings-call outlook featuring material deleveraging and sizable shareholder returns. Valuation is also favorable with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield. These positives are tempered by declining revenues versus prior years, commodity-driven cyclicality, and only neutral-to-moderately positive technical momentum in the near term.
Positive Factors
Consistent strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and multi-year free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, debt repayment, and shareholder returns. This cash-generation base reduces reliance on external financing and supports strategic flexibility across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline and commodity cyclicality
A multi-year revenue downtrend and historically cyclical earnings reduce predictability of long-term cash flow and make sustained investment or distribution plans sensitive to commodity swings. Recovery depends on successful portfolio optimization and commodity price environment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and multi-year free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, debt repayment, and shareholder returns. This cash-generation base reduces reliance on external financing and supports strategic flexibility across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Ovintiv (OVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.97B
Dividend Yield3.16%
Average Volume (3M)4.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.7
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-3.06%
EPS Growth15.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,623
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.83
Shares Outstanding283,335,450
10 Day Avg. Volume3,485,238
30 Day Avg. Volume4,474,000
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio6.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.69Price Target Upside18.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)7.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.28B
Ovintiv Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ovintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. It operates through USA Operations, Canadian Operations, and Market Optimization segment...
How the Company Makes Money
Ovintiv primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil/condensate, natural gas, and NGLs—into North American commodity markets. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes from its operated and non-operated wells...
Ovintiv Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial execution, meaningful deleveraging, and operational improvements (cost reductions, productivity gains, and inventory expansion). Management completed major portfolio moves (NuVista acquisition, Anadarko sale agreement) to concentrate in the Permian and Montney, enabling a large authorized $3 billion buyback and a commitment to return at least 75% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders. Near-term negatives include a material reduction in 2026 volumes versus prior guidance due to the Anadarko sale (~70,000 BOE/d), temporary Montney plant turnarounds in Q2, and some incremental T&P costs tied to Montney weighting. Overall the positives (strong cash generation, lower leverage, operational outperformance, and aggressive shareholder returns) dominate the call, while the lowlights are mostly timing and transactional or short-term operational impacts.Positive Updates
Strong 2025 Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow
Full year 2025 cash flow of $3.8 billion and free cash flow of more than $1.6 billion; returned over $600 million to shareholders during 2025. Q4 free cash flow was $508 million.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Production Reduction from Anadarko Sale and NuVista Timing
Pro forma 2026 volumes (620,000–645,000 BOE/d) are lower than the November preliminary outlook of ~715,000 BOE/d. Management cites ~70,000 BOE/d reduction from the Anadarko sale and ~10,000 BOE/d timing impact from the NuVista closing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong 2025 Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow
Full year 2025 cash flow of $3.8 billion and free cash flow of more than $1.6 billion; returned over $600 million to shareholders during 2025. Q4 free cash flow was $508 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ovintiv guided 2026 production (including one quarter of Anadarko) of 620,000–645,000 BOE/d with oil & condensate of about 209,000 bbl/d and natural gas >2 Bcf/d, backed by ~$2.3 billion of planned capital; Q1 is expected to be the year high at ~670,000 BOE/d (≈223,000 bbl/d oil & condensate) with Q1 capex of ~ $625 million (including ~$50 million of Anadarko spend) and an estimated 3–4k BOE/d cold‑weather impact in January. Asset run‑rates and activity include roughly 120,000 bbl/d oil & condensate in the Permian (≈130 net wells in 2026) and ~85,000 bbl/d in the Montney (guidance 83–87k bbl/d and 1.75–1.85 Bcf/d gas, ≈135 net turn‑in lines), with cost targets of < $600/ft D&C in the Permian and < $500/ft D&C in the Montney (each ≈$25/ft lower than 2025). Pro forma net debt after the Anadarko sale is expected to be about $3.6 billion (no long‑term maturities before 2030) with ~$40 million of annualized interest savings from repaying 2028 notes (on top of $25 million saved from earlier 2026 note retirements), and the company will allocate at least 75% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholders (long‑term policy 50–100%) with a Board‑authorized $3 billion buyback program to commence immediately.Ovintiv Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.74B | 9.15B | 10.88B | 12.46B | 8.66B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 4.98B | 5.90B | 6.88B | 4.22B |
| EBITDA | 3.35B | 4.05B | 4.69B | 4.98B | 2.77B |
| Net Income | 1.24B | 1.13B | 2.08B | 3.64B | 1.42B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.39B | 19.25B | 19.99B | 15.06B | 14.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.00M | 42.00M | 3.00M | 5.00M | 195.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.53B | 6.29B | 6.68B | 4.49B | 5.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.20B | 8.92B | 9.62B | 7.37B | 8.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.20B | 10.33B | 10.37B | 7.69B | 5.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.42B | 1.42B | 2.04B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.65B | 3.72B | 4.17B | 3.87B | 3.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.88B | -2.46B | -5.52B | -1.79B | -525.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -762.00M | -1.23B | 1.36B | -2.27B | -2.42B |
Ovintiv Technical Analysis
Neutral
52.81
Price Trends
53.57
Negative
46.74
Positive
42.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Positive
39.79
Neutral
17.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OVV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 52.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.84, below the 50-day MA of 53.57, and above the 200-day MA of 42.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OVV.
Ovintiv Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $18.38B | 99.25 | 6.32% | 4.27% | 1.29% | -14.26% | |
72 Outperform | $16.97B | 2.66 | 11.86% | 3.16% | -3.06% | 15.41% | |
72 Outperform | $13.54B | 7.78 | 24.51% | 3.80% | -8.39% | 76.90% | |
72 Outperform | $9.70B | 7.77 | 20.93% | 1.00% | 23.03% | 239.04% | |
72 Outperform | $11.41B | 6.12 | 12.71% | ― | 24.26% | 323.40% | |
70 Outperform | $7.18B | -54.37 | 13.92% | 3.14% | 5.10% | -14.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
OVV
Ovintiv
59.90
25.53
74.28%
APA
APA
38.30
22.77
146.57%
MTDR
Matador Resources
57.76
16.40
39.64%
RRC
Range Resources
41.17
4.79
13.17%
AR
Antero Resources
36.84
-0.55
-1.47%
PR
Permian Resources
21.21
8.72
69.79%
Ovintiv Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ovintiv Advances Debt Reduction With Anadarko Asset Sale
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Ovintiv Canada ULC previously arranged a two-year term credit facility in November 2025 to help finance Ovintiv Inc.’s acquisition of NuVista Energy, which closed on February 3, 2026, and now plans to repay C$1.57 billion and terminate that ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Announces Enhanced 2026 Shareholder Return Framework
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
In 2025, Ovintiv generated $3.7 billion in cash from operating activities, $1.6 billion in Non-GAAP free cash flow and average production of 615 MBOE/d, while returning about $612 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. It reported...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ovintiv to Divest Oklahoma Oil and Gas Assets
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ovintiv subsidiaries Ovintiv USA Inc. and Ovintiv Royalty Holdings LLC agreed to sell certain Oklahoma oil and gas assets for $3.0 billion in cash to MidCon II BuyerCo, LLC via the sale of equity in a newly formed Texas LLC. ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Sells Anadarko Basin Assets to Refocus Portfolio
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ovintiv Inc. announced it had signed a definitive agreement to sell its Anadarko Basin assets in Oklahoma to an undisclosed buyer for $3.0 billion in cash. The package comprises about 360,000 net acres, representing nearly al...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.