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Ovintiv
(NYSE:OVV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
â–²(7.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
OVV scores well primarily due to a strong and confidence-boosting earnings update (raised oil guidance with unchanged capital, strong free cash flow, improved leverage and credit upgrade, and sizeable shareholder returns). Financial performance is solid with strong cash generation and improving leverage, but tempered by margin compression and weaker free cash flow growth. Technicals show positive trend but overbought signals add near-term risk, while valuation appears neutral with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Sustained, near‑parity free cash flow versus net income demonstrates durable cash conversion. This reliable FCF funds dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction without raising capital, giving management optionality to prioritize shareholder returns and resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Margin compression vs prior cycle
Significant margin erosion versus recent peaks indicates structural pressure from costs, royalties and differentials. Lower margins reduce earnings power per barrel and make long‑term cash generation more sensitive to commodity swings even if volumes climb.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Sustained, near‑parity free cash flow versus net income demonstrates durable cash conversion. This reliable FCF funds dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction without raising capital, giving management optionality to prioritize shareholder returns and resilience through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Ovintiv (OVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.21B
Dividend Yield1.92%
Average Volume (3M)3.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth6.17%
EPS Growth57.64%
CountryUS
Employees1,465
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.53
Shares Outstanding275,503,570
10 Day Avg. Volume4,042,258
30 Day Avg. Volume3,352,085
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio6.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.11Price Target Upside14.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)7.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.83B
Ovintiv Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ovintiv Inc. is an energy company primarily focused on the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its activities are managed across three main segments: operations within the United States, ope...
How the Company Makes Money
Ovintiv makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into commodity markets. Its main revenue streams are: (1) Sales of crude oil and condensate: revenue is generated from volumes produced and sold, typically priced off market ...
Ovintiv Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, material free cash flow generation, significant balance sheet improvement (net debt down ~$3.4B, leverage ~0.6x), upgraded production guidance and a meaningful shareholder return program. Most near-term challenges (Montney turnarounds, higher royalties, diesel cost pressure, and some one-off sulfur revenue) were either mitigated or framed as manageable. Continued productivity gains (surfactants, faster completions, wet sand, AI/automation) and long inventory life underpin a positive outlook. Given the breadth and scale of financial and operational positives relative to the limited and mostly manageable headwinds, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow Per Share
Q2 free cash flow of $682 million and cash flow per share of $4.46, both beating consensus. Year-to-date free cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion, enabling significant shareholder returns and balance sheet improvement.
Negative Updates
Montney Planned Turnarounds Reduced Gas Volumes
Extended planned plant turnarounds in the Montney caused downtime that resulted in natural gas volumes falling below the low end of guidance for the quarter. Although condensate volumes were prioritized and impact on revenue was limited due to weak AECO pricing, gas volume shortfall was a miss vs guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow Per Share
Q2 free cash flow of $682 million and cash flow per share of $4.46, both beating consensus. Year-to-date free cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion, enabling significant shareholder returns and balance sheet improvement.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ovintiv raised full‑year oil & condensate guidance to 210–212 mbbl/d and increased the Permian run‑rate to 125 mbbl/d (Permian Q2 oil & condensate averaged 127 mbbl/d), while expecting Montney condensate to average 80–85 mbbl/d in H2; NGL guidance is ~84 mbbl/d and the company is maintaining a midpoint natural gas guide of 2.05 Bcf/d. For Q3 they expect ~628 kBOE/d production including ~208 mbbl/d of oil & condensate and plan roughly $575 million of capital spend (full‑year capital guidance unchanged); year‑to‑date free cash flow is $1.3 billion (Q2 FCF $682 million, Q2 cash flow/share $4.46), net debt ended the quarter at $2.995 billion with leverage ~0.6x and Fitch upgraded to BBB, and management noted they have returned ~63% of Q2 FCF to shareholders (YTD shareholder returns ~45%) while targeting total 2026 returns >60% and expect ~4% oil per‑share growth with no incremental capital. They also highlighted inventory depth—+3.2k drilling locations since 2023 at an average ~$1.4M per net 10k ft location (nearly 15 years Permian, ~20 years Montney)—and that the 2026 drilling programs in both assets have been essentially replaced organically.Ovintiv Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.64B | 8.74B | 9.15B | 10.88B | 12.46B | 8.66B |
| Gross Profit | 6.04B | 2.50B | 4.98B | 5.90B | 6.88B | 4.22B |
| EBITDA | 2.83B | 3.35B | 4.05B | 4.69B | 4.98B | 2.77B |
| Net Income | 920.00M | 1.24B | 1.13B | 2.08B | 3.64B | 1.42B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.28B | 20.39B | 19.25B | 19.99B | 15.06B | 14.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 700.00M | 280.00M | 42.00M | 3.00M | 5.00M | 195.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.92B | 7.53B | 6.29B | 6.68B | 4.49B | 5.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.78B | 9.20B | 8.92B | 9.62B | 7.37B | 8.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.50B | 11.20B | 10.33B | 10.37B | 7.69B | 5.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.38B | 1.50B | 1.42B | 1.42B | 2.04B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.43B | 3.65B | 3.72B | 4.17B | 3.87B | 3.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -929.27M | -2.88B | -2.46B | -5.52B | -1.79B | -525.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.82B | -762.00M | -1.23B | 1.36B | -2.27B | -2.42B |
Ovintiv Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $79.20B | 14.55 | 22.38% | 2.79% | 0.31% | -5.71% | |
74 Outperform | $13.19B | 8.70 | 25.11% | 2.77% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
73 Outperform | $17.84B | 23.76 | 11.32% | 2.90% | -1.12% | -48.40% | |
71 Outperform | $57.09B | 238.76 | 4.68% | 2.03% | 18.09% | -94.57% | |
70 Outperform | $17.21B | 17.69 | 8.27% | 1.90% | 6.17% | 57.64% | |
68 Neutral | $6.20B | 12.83 | 8.74% | 2.83% | -2.91% | -47.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
OVV
Ovintiv
59.86
21.94
57.84%
APA
APA
36.53
17.73
94.27%
EOG
EOG Resources
136.20
24.13
21.53%
MTDR
Matador Resources
48.66
3.96
8.87%
FANG
Diamondback
189.63
52.06
37.84%
PR
Permian Resources
20.28
7.55
59.27%
Ovintiv Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Boosts Dividend Amid Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Ovintiv reported strong second quarter 2026 results, generating $1.6 billion in cash from operating activities, $1.3 billion in Non-GAAP Cash Flow and $682 million in Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow on capital expenditures of $574 million. Average product...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ovintiv Reports Q1 Loss but Strong Cash Generation
Negative
May 11, 2026
Ovintiv reported first quarter 2026 results on May 11, 2026, posting a net loss of $630 million driven largely by $1.2 billion in non-cash ceiling test impairments tied to weaker SEC oil prices, despite generating $1.1 billion in operating cash fl...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ovintiv Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditors
Positive
May 8, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 6, 2026, Ovintiv reported the re-election of all director nominees with strong majorities, signaling continued investor support for the existing board. Shareholders also approved on an advisor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.