APA Corp. (APA)
NASDAQ:APA
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APA
(NASDAQ:APA)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(32.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial strength (strong cash flow and a healthier balance sheet) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). The earnings call adds support via disciplined 2026 plans and ongoing cost/efficiency gains, while the main offset is technical overbought conditions that raise near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained, high free cash flow (> $1B in 2025) shows the business can self-fund capital, pay shareholders, and reduce debt. This durable cash generation cushions commodity cycles, funds inventory development and returns capital while enabling lower leverage targets over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Revenue & Profit Volatility
Commodity-driven swings have produced large revenue and profit variability, making free cash flow conversion uneven. That structural cyclicality complicates budgeting, increases the likelihood of periodic capital or dividend adjustments, and constrains predictability for investors and creditors.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained, high free cash flow (> $1B in 2025) shows the business can self-fund capital, pay shareholders, and reduce debt. This durable cash generation cushions commodity cycles, funds inventory development and returns capital while enabling lower leverage targets over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
APA (APA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.95B
Dividend Yield3.8%
Average Volume (3M)9.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.1
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth4.88%
EPS Growth-41.34%
CountryUS
Employees1,791
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.91
Shares Outstanding353,251,460
10 Day Avg. Volume8,932,335
30 Day Avg. Volume9,909,569
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio4.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.53Price Target Upside-4.05% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)5.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.60B
APA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
APA Corporation, through its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas properties. It has operations in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom, as well as has exploration activities offshore Suriname. The company als...
How the Company Makes Money
APA makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from its operated and non-operated upstream assets. Revenue is recognized when these commodities are delivered to purchasers und...
APA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Daily Oil Volume by Geography
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAPA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. Management highlighted substantial operational progress: significant and ahead-of-plan cost reductions, strong free cash flow generation (> $1B in 2025), meaningful reserve growth (+9% y/y) and improved Permian capital efficiency with large economic and technical inventory. They provided disciplined 2026 guidance (total portfolio spend $2.1B, Permian capex ~$1.3B, Egypt capex ~$500M) and clear paths to further savings and balance-sheet improvement (net debt down ~$1.4B in 2025 with a $3B target). Near-term negatives include a Q4 Egypt pipeline disruption, anticipated slight LOE pressure in 2026, higher decommissioning spend and modest production impact from exiting a noncore concession. Trading income is a material positive but subject to market/takeaway dynamics. Overall, the strengths and achievable catalysts (cost leadership, large Permian inventory, gas growth in Egypt, Suriname upside) materially outweigh the near-term operational and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Cost Reductions Achieved Ahead of Plan
Captured over $300 million of savings in 2025 and exited the year at a $350 million controllable-spend run rate (target achieved two years early). Management expects incremental reductions in 2026 and a run rate of $450 million by year-end 2026, with a further $200 million decline in controllable spend expected in 2026.
Negative Updates
Egypt Q4 Gas Miss and Pipeline Disruption
Gross gas production in Egypt was 501 MMcf/d in Q4 and came in below guidance due to unplanned temporary pipeline disruptions late in the quarter (operations since resumed), which weighed on Q4 gas volumes.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Cost Reductions Achieved Ahead of Plan
Captured over $300 million of savings in 2025 and exited the year at a $350 million controllable-spend run rate (target achieved two years early). Management expects incremental reductions in 2026 and a run rate of $450 million by year-end 2026, with a further $200 million decline in controllable spend expected in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a disciplined $2.1 billion portfolio spend in 2026 (down ~10% y/y) with U.S. development capital of roughly $1.3 billion (Permian ~$1.2B + $100M base projects), ~ $500 million in Egypt, ~$230 million for GranMorgu in Suriname and ~$70 million for exploration (≈$20M Alaska prep, ~$50M late‑Q4 Suriname), targeting U.S. oil production roughly flat at 120–122k bbl/d, Egypt gas of ~540–550 MMcf/d and slight year‑over‑year BOE growth in Egypt; key financial metrics include >$1.0 billion free cash flow in 2025 (Q4 FCF $425M), ~ $640M returned to shareholders (≈63% of FCF) and net debt just under $4.0B (down ≈$1.4B vs. 2024; $3.0B long‑term target). Operational and portfolio metrics: ~450k net Permian acres (>95% held), ~1,700 locations in economic inventory and ~1,700 in technical upside, 2025 D&C averages of ~$595/ft (Midland) and ~$750/ft (Delaware) with some later wells < $500/$700 per foot, proved reserves +9% to >1.0B BOE and >160% reserve replacement, expected controllable‑spend savings exiting 2026 of ~$450M run‑rate (exited 2025 at $350M after >$300M captured) plus an incremental ~$200M reduction in 2026, a $100M Permian LOE project set to lower LOE by ~$3–3.5M/month (annualized $40–50M savings, ~1–2 year payback), decommissioning gross spend ≈$280M (net ≈$225M after tax), and oil & gas marketing/trading expected to contribute ~ $650M pretax in 2026.APA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.92B | 9.74B | 8.28B | 11.07B | 7.99B |
| Gross Profit | 3.33B | 4.30B | 4.23B | 6.25B | 3.54B |
| EBITDA | 5.43B | 4.17B | 4.75B | 7.61B | 3.66B |
| Net Income | 1.43B | 804.00M | 2.85B | 3.67B | 1.14B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.00B | 19.39B | 15.24B | 13.15B | 13.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 516.00M | 625.00M | 87.00M | 245.00M | 302.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.81B | 6.16B | 5.30B | 5.62B | 7.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.99B | 13.03B | 11.55B | 11.80B | 14.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.09B | 5.28B | 2.65B | 423.00M | -1.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.78B | 769.00M | 772.00M | 2.54B | 2.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.54B | 3.62B | 3.13B | 4.94B | 3.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.15B | -924.00M | -2.14B | -1.51B | -833.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.50B | -2.16B | -1.15B | -3.49B | -2.62B |
APA Technical Analysis
Neutral
37.03
Price Trends
33.93
Positive
29.46
Positive
25.44
Positive
Market Momentum
1.45
Positive
46.17
Neutral
33.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.32, above the 50-day MA of 33.93, and above the 200-day MA of 25.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for APA.
APA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $7.49B | 6.96 | 13.92% | 3.14% | 14.77% | -17.38% | |
74 Outperform | $7.64B | 120.54 | 0.54% | 5.73% | 8.43% | -86.63% | |
72 Outperform | $13.95B | 6.12 | 24.51% | 3.80% | 4.88% | -41.34% | |
72 Outperform | $9.86B | 12.75 | 15.87% | 1.00% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $5.57B | 42.92 | 2.03% | 4.15% | -13.92% | -68.34% | |
54 Neutral | $5.10B | 17.04 | 16.88% | ― | 35.41% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
APA
APA
37.03
22.42
153.39%
CRK
Comstock Resources
16.25
-3.46
-17.55%
MTDR
Matador Resources
57.33
18.43
47.37%
MUR
Murphy Oil
37.64
18.05
92.18%
RRC
Range Resources
40.69
6.92
20.48%
CHRD
Chord Energy
129.15
42.85
49.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.