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APA
(NASDAQ:APA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
â–²(5.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and operating cash flow with improved leverage), supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and a ~2.68% dividend yield). The latest earnings call added confidence through higher cost-savings targets, improved Permian guidance on flat capex, and a clear deleveraging/returns framework, while technical signals remain mixed with weaker near-term trend versus key short/intermediate moving averages.
Positive Factors
High margins and profitability
Sustained high EBITDA and net margins indicate structural cost advantages and strong per-unit economics. Durable margin strength supports internal investment, debt paydown and shareholder returns across commodity cycles, making cash generation less dependent on short-term price spikes.
Negative Factors
Top-line and FCF momentum weakening
Declining revenue and falling free-cash-flow momentum constrain reinvestment and return capacity over the medium term. A lower FCF share of net income signals heavier capex or working-capital swings, making durable growth and consistent returns more sensitive to commodity and operational variability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins and profitability
Sustained high EBITDA and net margins indicate structural cost advantages and strong per-unit economics. Durable margin strength supports internal investment, debt paydown and shareholder returns across commodity cycles, making cash generation less dependent on short-term price spikes.
Read all positive factors
APA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Daily Oil Volume by Geography
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Monitors oil production levels in various regions, indicating operational scale, regional strengths, and exposure to geopolitical or market risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAPA (APA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.19B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)5.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-17.38%
EPS Growth54.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,791
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.29
Shares Outstanding353,470,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,016,465
30 Day Avg. Volume5,320,466
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio4.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.50Price Target Upside12.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.87B
APA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
APA Corporation operates in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry, utilizing its various subsidiaries to explore for, develop, and produce hydrocarbon assets. The company maintains significant operational presences in the United...
How the Company Makes Money
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APA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, meaningful cost and capital efficiency gains, robust free cash flow generation ($738M in Q2; >$1.2B YTD) and concrete balance sheet progress (H1 debt repayments, $3B net debt target expected in 2027). Management increased the exit run-rate savings target to $500M, raised Permian oil guidance to 123k bpd while lowering LOE guidance and holding the capital budget to $1.3B, and highlighted high-potential growth projects (GranMorgu on budget and on schedule for mid-2028; strategic Alaska infrastructure purchase; ENI partnership in Uruguay). Headwinds include inflationary pressures, timing-related LOE shifts (North Sea), deferred exploration timing (Block 58), some near-term gas timing impacts at Khafre, and frontier exploration risk in Uruguay. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum, acceleration of run-rate savings, strong cash generation and clear path to deleveraging and shareholder returns substantially outweigh the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and YTD Cash Generation
Q2 2026 free cash flow of $738 million and consolidated net income of $747 million ($2.11 per diluted share). Through the first six months of 2026 APA generated more than $1.2 billion in free cash flow, which management noted is greater than each of the past three years.
Negative Updates
Exploration Timing Delays (Block 58)
Exploration capital trimmed slightly due to timing: the next Block 58 exploration well formerly planned for late Q4 2026 is now expected to spud in 2027, delaying potential near-term upside and deferring associated activity/cost recovery.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and YTD Cash Generation
Q2 2026 free cash flow of $738 million and consolidated net income of $747 million ($2.11 per diluted share). Through the first six months of 2026 APA generated more than $1.2 billion in free cash flow, which management noted is greater than each of the past three years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
APA updated 2026 guidance with several key metrics: it now expects to exit the year with $500 million of annualized run‑rate savings (up from a $450M target) and lease operating expense guidance of $1.5 billion (down $25M), will run ~4 rigs in the Permian for the rest of the year while keeping a $1.3 billion capital budget and raising full‑year Permian oil guidance to 123 thousand b/d (vs. 120k b/d previously and vs. an earlier sustaining estimate of 8 rigs/$1.7B), and expects Egypt gross oil ~118 thousand b/d and gross gas ~535 MMcf/d with Egypt capex ~ $500M net to APA; financial outlook assumes roughly $950M pretax from gas trading and about $2.3 billion of consolidated free cash flow at current strip, after generating $738M FCF in Q2 and >$1.2B YTD, returning $189M to shareholders in Q2, repaying $752M of bond debt in H1 (including $673M in Q2), targeting end‑2026 net debt near $3.3B and a $3.0B net‑debt target in 2027, while maintaining a commitment to return at least 60% of free cash flow and noting GranMorgu first oil mid‑2028 and a modest reduction/timing shift in exploration (Block 58 well moved to 2027).APA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.61B | 8.92B | 9.74B | 8.28B | 11.07B | 7.99B |
| Gross Profit | 4.19B | 3.33B | 4.30B | 4.23B | 6.25B | 3.54B |
| EBITDA | 5.63B | 5.43B | 4.17B | 4.75B | 7.61B | 3.66B |
| Net Income | 1.53B | 1.43B | 804.00M | 2.85B | 3.67B | 1.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.08B | 19.00B | 19.39B | 15.24B | 13.15B | 13.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 293.00M | 516.00M | 625.00M | 87.00M | 245.00M | 302.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.54B | 4.81B | 6.16B | 5.30B | 5.62B | 7.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.68B | 11.99B | 13.03B | 11.55B | 11.80B | 14.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.46B | 6.09B | 5.28B | 2.65B | 423.00M | -1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.49B | 1.78B | 769.00M | 772.00M | 2.54B | 2.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.00B | 4.54B | 3.62B | 3.13B | 4.94B | 3.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.91B | -2.15B | -924.00M | -2.14B | -1.51B | -833.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -2.50B | -2.16B | -1.15B | -3.49B | -2.62B |
APA Technical Analysis
Positive
36.15
Price Trends
35.07
Positive
36.86
Negative
31.20
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
55.30
Neutral
45.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.39, above the 50-day MA of 35.07, and above the 200-day MA of 31.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APA.
APA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $17.84B | 23.76 | 11.32% | 2.90% | -1.12% | -48.40% | |
72 Outperform | $7.90B | -133.70 | -0.83% | 3.76% | -0.99% | -107.05% | |
71 Outperform | $13.19B | 8.70 | 25.11% | 2.77% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
70 Outperform | $17.21B | 17.69 | 8.27% | 1.90% | 6.17% | 57.64% | |
68 Neutral | $6.20B | 12.83 | 8.74% | 2.83% | -2.91% | -47.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $7.80B | 28.28 | 2.16% | 2.53% | 27.35% | -66.88% |
* Energy Sector Average
APA
APA
36.53
17.73
94.27%
OVV
Ovintiv
59.86
21.94
57.84%
MTDR
Matador Resources
48.66
3.96
8.87%
SM
SM Energy
28.70
3.44
13.60%
PR
Permian Resources
20.28
7.55
59.27%
CHRD
Chord Energy
132.50
37.46
39.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.