Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.30B
• Dividend Yield: 4.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: -13.92%
• EPS Growth: -68.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 142,738,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,279,386
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,354,816
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.90
• 1Y Price Target: $29.17
• Price Target Upside: -3.06% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.58B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(9.67% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by manageable leverage and still-healthy operating cash generation, plus a constructive earnings call highlighting cost discipline, liquidity, and exploration/appraisal upside. It is held back by materially weaker TTM profitability and free-cash-flow contraction, mixed/neutral technical momentum, and a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Sustained +51% FCF growth and high cash conversion provide durable funding for dividends, debt reduction and discretionary capex. Strong cash generation reduces sensitivity to commodity swings and underpins financial flexibility across multi‑year cycles.

Improved Liquidity & Maturity

Extending and expanding the revolver materially reduces near‑term rollover risk and increases liquidity headroom for multi‑year exploration and development programs. This structural improvement supports capital planning and lowers refinancing risk across cycles.

Operational Execution

Consistently exceeding production guidance and cutting unit operating costs by ~20% indicates persistent operational strength and execution. Durable improvements in onshore assets and low breakevens boost margin resilience and free cash flow in varied commodity environments.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Profitability Trend

Declining revenue and falling margins signal weakening top‑line momentum and reduced capital efficiency. Over months this can constrain reinvestment, limit ability to grow reserves organically, and pressure returns to shareholders if trends persist amid volatile oil markets.

Exploration Risk

Non‑commercial results in frontier Cote d’Ivoire highlight the high technical and commercial risk of exploration projects. Repeated non‑commercial outcomes can deplete exploration budgets, delay reserve replacement, and reduce long‑term growth optionality despite improved subsurface understanding.

Asset Impairment & Rising Unit Costs

An impairment tied to high operating expenses and guidance for higher per‑BOE costs due to falling volumes reveal asset‑level cost sensitivity. This weighs on sustainable margins and may force capital reallocation or asset sales to restore returns if volumes don’t recover.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company engages in exploration and production activities, which are crucial for finding and extracting hydrocarbons. A significant portion of its revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas at prevailing market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Murphy Oil benefits from hedging strategies that help stabilize cash flows during periods of price volatility. The company has also entered into joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, Murphy Oil invests in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency and reduce costs, ultimately supporting its profitability.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet is a clear support (debt-to-equity ~0.43) and operating cash flow remains solid (~$1.25B, exceeding net income). However, TTM fundamentals cooled sharply: net income fell to ~$104M with net margin ~5.2% and free cash flow dropped to ~$396M, highlighting cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability weakened materially versus prior years: net income fell to about $104M and the net margin compressed to ~5.2% (vs ~13.5% in 2024 and ~19–23% in 2022–2023). Revenue has also been trending down over the last several periods (negative growth in 2023–TTM), consistent with a tougher commodity backdrop. A key positive is that operating profitability remains positive in TTM, and the company has shown it can generate strong margins in up-cycles (2022–2023), but earnings look more volatile and less resilient at current levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable for the industry: total debt is ~$2.2B in TTM against ~$5.1B of equity, with debt-to-equity around ~0.43 (improved from ~0.68 in 2020 and ~0.57 in 2021). Equity remains sizable and relatively stable across the period, supporting balance-sheet durability. The main weakness is reduced profitability translating into a lower return on equity in TTM (~2.8%) versus the stronger 2022–2023 period, which can limit balance-sheet momentum if the lower-earnings environment persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a strength, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$1.25B exceeding net income (coverage ~1.67x), indicating earnings are backed by cash. However, free cash flow declined sharply to ~$396M in TTM and contracted versus 2024, signaling less cash available for debt reduction, buybacks, or dividends. Overall, cash flow is still positive and supportive, but it is clearly more pressured than the prior two years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.72B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B
Gross Profit	1.95B	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B
EBITDA	1.25B	1.54B	1.95B	2.38B	1.06B
Net Income	104.20M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	-73.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.83B	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	377.00M	423.57M	317.07M	491.96M	521.18M
Total Debt	2.20B	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	3.37B
Total Liabilities	4.60B	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B
Stockholders Equity	5.12B	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	396.40M	820.83M	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M
Operating Cash Flow	1.25B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.03B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-264.06M	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 30.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.82, below the 50-day MA of 31.78, and above the 200-day MA of 26.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	76 Outperform	$5.77B	8.50	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
CIVI	72 Outperform	$2.34B	3.98	9.56%	7.36%	-6.52%	-32.26%
SM	72 Outperform	$4.64B	3.08	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRC	71 Outperform	$4.78B	12.44	11.06%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
GPOR	66 Neutral	$3.94B	-107.02	0.08%	―	38.16%	-115.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
MUR	62 Neutral	$4.30B	41.58	2.01%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On January 28, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net income of $11.9 million for the quarter and $104.2 million for the year, total 2025 production of 182,300 BOEPD at the high end of guidance, and preliminary year-end proved reserves of 715 MMBOE, maintaining an 11-year reserve life and 103 percent reserve replacement. The company emphasized strong operational execution, including successful oil discoveries and appraisal activity in offshore Vietnam and the Gulf of Mexico, reduced lease operating and drilling costs, a strategic FPSO acquisition, and a strengthened balance sheet and liquidity profile via debt reduction, an upsized revolving credit facility, and new long-dated notes, while returning $286 million to shareholders in 2025 and raising its quarterly dividend by 8 percent to $0.35 per share, payable March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026, signaling confidence in its cash generation and long-term growth outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On January 23, 2026, Murphy Oil closed a $500 million offering of 6.500% notes maturing in 2034, issued under its existing indenture structure and sold through a syndicate of underwriters. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem in full its 5.875% notes due 2027 and 6.375% notes due 2028, repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, cover transaction-related costs and fund general corporate purposes, a move that reshapes its debt maturity profile and may lower near‑term refinancing and liquidity risk while adding longer-duration fixed‑rate capital under covenants that restrict additional liens, certain sale-leasebacks, major asset transfers and new subsidiary indebtedness.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Sell with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On January 8, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation announced it planned to issue $500 million of senior notes due 2034 under an existing shelf registration, subject to market and other conditions. The company said it expects to use the proceeds to redeem in full its 5.875% notes due 2027 and 6.375% notes due 2028, repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, cover transaction-related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes, a move that would refinance nearer-term debt and potentially strengthen its balance sheet and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil highlights Vietnam appraisal success and outlook

On January 2, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation amended its existing revolving credit facility, extending the maturity from October 7, 2029 to January 2, 2031, increasing total lender commitments from $1.35 billion to $2.0 billion, and expanding letter of credit capacity from $250 million to $415 million, moves that significantly enhanced the company’s liquidity and financial flexibility. Separately, on January 6, 2026, the company reported that a subsidiary had successfully drilled the Hai Su Vang-2X appraisal well offshore Vietnam in Block 15-2/17, and management scheduled investor meetings and a conference appearance at the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference 2026 for January 7, underscoring Murphy Oil’s ongoing international exploration progress and its efforts to highlight growth prospects and capital allocation priorities to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.