Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)
NYSE:MUR
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Murphy Oil
(NYSE:MUR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(24.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/22/26
The score is driven primarily by stable financial footing (manageable leverage and positive cash generation) despite materially weaker TTM profitability and lower free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with strong uptrend and momentum, while valuation is a notable drag due to a high P/E versus recent earnings compression. Earnings-call commentary adds support via strong execution, liquidity, and exploration progress, tempered by guidance for lower 2026 production and ongoing commodity risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow substantially above reported net income indicates underlying cash-generative operations. That coverage supports dividends, debt service and discretionary capex over the next 2–6 months, improving resilience versus peers if commodity prices soften.
Negative Factors
Profitability compression
Material margin and earnings contraction reduces internally available cash for reinvestment, shareholder returns, and debt paydown. If current commodity and operational pressures persist, lower profitability will constrain ROE and slow balance-sheet strengthening over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow substantially above reported net income indicates underlying cash-generative operations. That coverage supports dividends, debt service and discretionary capex over the next 2–6 months, improving resilience versus peers if commodity prices soften.
Read all positive factors
Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.99B
Dividend Yield4.15%
Average Volume (3M)2.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.9
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-10.87%
EPS Growth-73.21%
CountryUS
Employees750
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding143,348,710
10 Day Avg. Volume2,373,995
30 Day Avg. Volume2,889,970
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.65
P/FCF Ratio11.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.62Price Target Upside4.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.10B
Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas l...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its portfolio of operated and non-operated wells and fields. Revenue is recognized largely from the sale of produced volumes at prevailing...
Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational execution, disciplined cost control (LOE down 20%), material exploration and appraisal successes (80% success rate, promising Hai Su Vang results, 12,000 bbl/d test rates) and a solid balance sheet (> $2B liquidity), while acknowledging near-term challenges including a modest production decline in 2026 (~6% lower), a dry hole at Civette, increases in royalties on Tupper Montney gas, and some proved developed reserve declines. Management is prioritizing targeted investments (Vietnam and Gulf of America) to generate medium- to long-term growth, and retains capital flexibility if prices deteriorate.Positive Updates
Strong Exploration and Appraisal Results
80% success rate in exploration efforts in 2025; advanced 4 exploration/appraisal wells across 3 continents in Q4. Hai Su Vang (Golden Sea Lion) appraisal reported 429 feet of net oil pay in the primary reservoir and no oil-water contact, implying resources significantly above the initial midpoint of 170 million BOE. Hai Su Vang-2X well flow-tested two intervals (~6,000 bbl/d each) producing a combined ~12,000 bbl/d without facility constraints — well productivity ~6x typical Cuu Long basin wells (~2,000 bbl/d).
Negative Updates
Civette Dry Hole in Côte d'Ivoire
Civette well encountered oil pay in multiple reservoirs but did not find commercial volumes and is classified as a dry hole relative to commerciality; further analysis ongoing. Management states Civette results do not materially change outlook for the two other independent prospects (Caracal and Bubale) in the program.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Exploration and Appraisal Results
80% success rate in exploration efforts in 2025; advanced 4 exploration/appraisal wells across 3 continents in Q4. Hai Su Vang (Golden Sea Lion) appraisal reported 429 feet of net oil pay in the primary reservoir and no oil-water contact, implying resources significantly above the initial midpoint of 170 million BOE. Hai Su Vang-2X well flow-tested two intervals (~6,000 bbl/d each) producing a combined ~12,000 bbl/d without facility constraints — well productivity ~6x typical Cuu Long basin wells (~2,000 bbl/d).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Murphy guided 2026 net production of about 171,000 BOE/d (down from 182,000 BOE/d in 2025), with Eagle Ford volumes to remain flat while capital is cut ~25% there, and company lease operating expenses expected to stay in the $10–$12/boe range (after a 20% YoY LOE reduction in 2025); they carry a ~1,500 bbl/d weather downtime provision, project flexibility to trim ~10% of 2026 CapEx (and 30–40% in a deeper pullback), and a strong balance sheet with low leverage and over $2 billion of liquidity. Key program metrics include two Hai Su Vang appraisal wells (the field has 429 feet of net oil pay to date and a combined 12,000 bbl/d test rate from two ~6,000 bbl/d flow tests, implying productivity well above the basin norm and resources well above the prior 170 MMboe midpoint), two Côte d’Ivoire exploration wells, Lac Da Vang first oil (Q4 2025) ramping toward a ~10,000–15,000 net bbl/d peak in late‑2027/early‑2028, Chinook targeting a high‑rate ~15,000 bbl/d gross well in H2 2026, and a 2025 exploration success rate of ~80%.Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.72B | 3.02B | 3.45B | 4.22B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.95B | 1.00B | 2.62B | 2.38B | 1.28B |
| EBITDA | 1.25B | 1.54B | 1.95B | 2.38B | 1.06B |
| Net Income | 104.20M | 407.17M | 661.56M | 965.05M | -73.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.83B | 9.67B | 9.77B | 10.31B | 10.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 377.00M | 423.57M | 317.07M | 491.96M | 521.18M |
| Total Debt | 2.20B | 2.07B | 2.09B | 2.79B | 3.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.60B | 4.33B | 4.22B | 5.16B | 5.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.12B | 5.19B | 5.36B | 4.99B | 4.16B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 396.40M | 820.83M | 647.16M | 1.05B | 733.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 2.17B | 1.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -908.16M | -998.68M | -1.11B | -417.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -264.06M | -716.54M | -923.72M | -1.08B | -794.51M |
Murphy Oil Technical Analysis
Neutral
36.87
Price Trends
36.14
Positive
33.80
Positive
29.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Positive
45.48
Neutral
24.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.68, above the 50-day MA of 36.14, and above the 200-day MA of 29.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUR.
Murphy Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.06B | 10.72 | 10.34% | 3.56% | 15.08% | -2.06% | |
75 Outperform | $7.44B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 17.24% | -15.87% | |
71 Outperform | $7.09B | 18.32 | 37.31% | ― | 52.24% | 41.74% | |
71 Outperform | $3.48B | 8.86 | 23.92% | ― | 42.53% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $5.99B | 42.92 | 2.03% | 4.15% | -10.87% | -73.21% |
* Energy Sector Average
MUR
Murphy Oil
40.73
20.01
96.59%
SM
SM Energy
30.47
8.45
38.41%
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
71.64
27.64
62.82%
CRC
California Resources Corp
68.37
33.29
94.90%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
189.90
10.11
5.62%
Murphy Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Murphy Oil Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net income of $11.9 million for the quarter and $104.2 million for the year, total 2025 production of 182,300 BOEPD at the high end of...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Murphy Oil Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 23, 2026, Murphy Oil closed a $500 million offering of 6.500% notes maturing in 2034, issued under its existing indenture structure and sold through a syndicate of underwriters. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem in full it...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.