Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.16B
• Dividend Yield: 5.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: -18.08%
• EPS Growth: -49.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 142,731,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,501,399
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,253,132
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.70
• 1Y Price Target: $26.30
• Price Target Upside: 16.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(10.57% Upside)

Murphy Oil's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, particularly in cash flow generation, and attractive valuation metrics. While technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, the company's operational successes and strategic priorities provide a positive outlook. The earnings call and corporate events further support the company's robust position in the industry.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Operational updates from the Gulf of America show progress with workover programs, reducing costs as new wells come online.

Production Performance

Murphy Oil's production is near the top end of guidance, driven by strong performance in the Eagle Ford and Tupper Montney.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow and Capex

No cash flow available for share repurchases in the second quarter due to lower commodity prices and front-half weighted capex.

Financial Projections

Analyst reduces 2025 CFPS/EBITDX estimates by ~10% on lower oil volumes and higher cash costs.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. The company primarily operates in the upstream sector of the energy industry, focusing on the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources. Murphy Oil's operations are concentrated in the United States, Canada, and offshore regions in Mexico and Brazil, and it is known for leveraging advanced technology in hydrocarbon extraction to enhance its operational efficiency. The company's portfolio includes both conventional and unconventional oil and gas assets, with a commitment to sustainable practices and responsible resource management.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company operates a diverse portfolio of oil and gas properties, which enables it to capitalize on varying market conditions and price fluctuations. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of hydrocarbons from its exploration and production activities, as well as strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capability and market reach. Additionally, Murphy Oil benefits from hedging strategies that help stabilize its revenue against volatile commodity prices. The company also engages in the sale of refined products through its retail outlets, contributing to its overall earnings.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy Oil demonstrates solid financial health with strong cash flow generation and a conservative leverage profile. Despite a 4% revenue decline, profitability and cash flow metrics remain robust, positioning the company well for resilience in the volatile oil and gas industry.

Income Statement

Murphy Oil's income statement shows a strong recovery and stabilization in profitability metrics. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 30.3%, and net profit margin is around 13.5%, reflecting solid cost management despite a slight revenue decline compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins at 12.6% and 46.7% respectively, indicate a robust operating performance. However, revenue declined by 4% from the previous annual report, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating a conservative leverage profile. The return on equity (ROE) is approximately 7.4%, showing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 53.7%, demonstrating a strong capital base. These metrics suggest financial stability and low risk from leverage.

Cash Flow

Murphy Oil's cash flow statement is robust, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.18, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow has grown by approximately 8.7% compared to the previous year, showcasing strong cash management and operational efficiency. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.82 highlights excellent cash conversion capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.78B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B	1.75B
Gross Profit	818.55M	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B	-8.01M
EBITDA	1.40B	1.54B	1.95B	2.44B	1.12B	-325.02M
Net Income	284.75M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	48.75M	-1.26B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.84B	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B	10.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	379.63M	423.57M	317.07M	492.00M	521.20M	310.60M
Total Debt	2.16B	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	2.47B	2.99B
Total Liabilities	4.48B	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B	6.23B
Stockholders Equity	5.20B	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.32B	4.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	660.11B	1.73B	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M	-70.06M
Operating Cash Flow	659.59B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B	802.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-679.82B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M	-859.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-22.74B	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M	39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.53, below the 50-day MA of 23.98, and below the 200-day MA of 25.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	82 Outperform	$3.96B	6.47	24.36%	3.25%	58.35%	210.80%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.94B	3.62	19.27%	3.14%	28.20%	1.63%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.53B	10.32	24.31%	11.83%	-8.06%	-22.61%
MUR	69 Neutral	$3.16B	11.48	5.42%	5.74%	-18.08%	-49.36%
VIST	65 Neutral	$3.84B	6.87	32.89%	―	51.55%	29.12%
Sector *	54 Neutral	C$4.15B	0.97	16.40%	5.23%	10.45%	-57.37%
GPOR	52 Neutral	$2.88B	16.69	-6.25%	―	25.89%	-117.80%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Hosts Investor Meetings at JPMorgan Conference

On June 24, 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation’s management, including CEO Eric M. Hambly and CFO Thomas J. Mireles, will host investor meetings at the JPMorgan 2025 Energy, Power, Renewables & Mining Conference. The company is advancing its strategic priorities by maintaining operational excellence, expanding its multi-basin portfolio, and delivering on capital allocation commitments. Recent achievements include drilling the longest laterals in company history and returning $147 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Highlights Strategic Priorities at UBS Conference

On May 20, 2025, Murphy Oil‘s management, including CEO Eric M. Hambly, will host investor meetings at the UBS Austin Energy Conference. The company highlighted its strategic priorities for 2025, including maintaining operational excellence, expanding its multi-basin portfolio, and delivering on capital allocation commitments. Murphy Oil achieved significant milestones such as zero lost time injuries, successful oil discoveries in Vietnam, and record drilling achievements in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney. The company returned $147 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, reinforcing its commitment to rewarding shareholders while targeting a long-term debt goal of $1.0 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 14, 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several proposals were voted on. The stockholders elected the directors proposed by management, approved executive compensation, adopted the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, and confirmed KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and strategic planning, reinforcing its operational framework and aligning executive incentives with long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.