Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.21B
• Dividend Yield: 5.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: -14.90%
• EPS Growth: -27.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 142,716,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,988,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,628,849
• PEG Ratio: -2.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.80
• 1Y Price Target: $26.67
• Price Target Upside: 12.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(5.09%Upside)

Murphy Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the most significant factors driving the stock score. Despite some technical resistance and challenges highlighted in the earnings call, the company's strategic initiatives and robust cash flow position it favorably for future growth.

Positive Factors

Exploration Success

MUR announced an oil discovery at its Hai Su Vang-1X exploration well offshore Vietnam, which could support a future commercial development.

Growth Strategy

MUR's updated multi-year outlook suggests disciplined oil-weighted growth in 2025-27+, with longer-term upside from its exploration portfolio.

Negative Factors

Financial Estimates

Analysts reduce 2025 CFPS/EBITDX estimates by ~10% due to lower oil volumes and higher cash costs.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil Corporation generates revenue through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's primary revenue streams are derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons, which are produced from its onshore and offshore assets. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the market prices of oil and gas, production volumes, and the efficient management of operational costs. Additionally, Murphy Oil may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further supporting its revenue generation. The company's financial performance is closely tied to global energy market trends and commodity price fluctuations.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy Oil exhibits solid financial health with strong cash flow generation, stable profitability, and a conservative leverage profile. Despite challenges in revenue growth, its robustness in profitability and cash flow metrics positions it well for future resilience in the volatile oil and gas industry.

Income Statement

Murphy Oil's income statement shows a strong recovery and stabilization in profitability metrics. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 30.3%, and net profit margin is around 13.5%, reflecting solid cost management despite a slight revenue decline compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins at 12.6% and 46.7% respectively, indicate a robust operating performance. However, revenue declined by 4% from the previous annual report, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating a conservative leverage profile. The return on equity (ROE) is approximately 7.4%, showing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 53.7%, demonstrating a strong capital base. These metrics suggest financial stability and low risk from leverage.

Cash Flow

Murphy Oil's cash flow statement is robust, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.18, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow has grown by approximately 8.7% compared to the previous year, showcasing strong cash management and operational efficiency. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.82 highlights excellent cash conversion capabilities.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.90B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B	1.75B
	Gross Profit
878.08M	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B	-8.01M
	EBIT
365.77M	11.58M	1.04B	1.59B	1.02B	-293.14M
	EBITDA
1.35B	1.25B	1.95B	2.44B	1.12B	-325.02M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
390.20M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	48.75M	-1.26B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
521.20M	423.57M	317.07M	492.00M	521.20M	310.60M
	Total Assets
10.30B	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B	10.62B
	Total Debt
2.47B	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	2.47B	2.99B
	Net Debt
1.94B	1.64B	1.77B	2.29B	1.94B	2.68B
	Total Liabilities
5.98B	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B	6.23B
	Stockholders Equity
4.32B	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.32B	4.39B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.88B	1.73B	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M	-70.06M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.63B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B	802.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.03B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M	-859.02M
	Financing Cash Flow
-534.17M	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M	39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 23.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.83, above the 50-day MA of 21.77, and below the 200-day MA of 28.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	79 Outperform	$4.79B	9.83	32.69%	―	54.19%	37.69%
CRC	75 Outperform	$3.98B	8.09	17.86%	3.47%	41.68%	53.13%
MUR	74 Outperform	$3.21B	8.64	7.54%	5.55%	-14.90%	-27.53%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.85B	3.49	20.28%	3.13%	26.04%	11.96%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.89B	14.94	19.93%	10.97%	-12.71%	-39.85%
GPOR	63 Neutral	$3.39B	16.69	-16.01%	―	10.44%	-139.05%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.22B	3.15	-4.49%	5.63%	0.82%	-49.15%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Highlights Strategic Priorities at UBS Conference

On May 20, 2025, Murphy Oil‘s management, including CEO Eric M. Hambly, will host investor meetings at the UBS Austin Energy Conference. The company highlighted its strategic priorities for 2025, including maintaining operational excellence, expanding its multi-basin portfolio, and delivering on capital allocation commitments. Murphy Oil achieved significant milestones such as zero lost time injuries, successful oil discoveries in Vietnam, and record drilling achievements in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney. The company returned $147 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, reinforcing its commitment to rewarding shareholders while targeting a long-term debt goal of $1.0 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 14, 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several proposals were voted on. The stockholders elected the directors proposed by management, approved executive compensation, adopted the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, and confirmed KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and strategic planning, reinforcing its operational framework and aligning executive incentives with long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.