Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.06B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -13.92%
• EPS Growth: -68.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 142,738,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,739,785
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,049,185
• PEG Ratio: -0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.53
• 1Y Price Target: $27.20
• Price Target Upside: -8.66% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.69B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(4.10% Upside)

Murphy Oil's overall stock score reflects its strong operational performance and cash flow generation, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, challenges in revenue growth, profitability, and valuation concerns weigh on the score. The technical analysis indicates a positive trend, but the high P/E ratio suggests caution.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Murphy Oil's ability to significantly reduce operating costs enhances its competitive position by improving margins and financial resilience.

International Development

Advancements in international projects diversify revenue streams and reduce dependency on domestic markets, supporting long-term growth.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation provides Murphy Oil with the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and maintain financial stability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth indicates potential difficulties in market expansion and competitive pressures, impacting future profitability.

Profitability Decline

Reduced profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management and pricing power, affecting long-term earnings potential.

Increasing Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can erode margins and limit the company's ability to invest in growth, affecting future financial performance.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is a global oil and natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. Operating primarily in the upstream sector of the energy industry, Murphy focuses on the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company has significant operations in the United States, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore regions, as well as international operations in Canada and other countries. Murphy Oil's core products include crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, which it sells to various markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company engages in exploration and production activities, which are crucial for finding and extracting hydrocarbons. A significant portion of its revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas at prevailing market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Murphy Oil benefits from hedging strategies that help stabilize cash flows during periods of price volatility. The company has also entered into joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, Murphy Oil invests in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency and reduce costs, ultimately supporting its profitability.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy Oil exhibits a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow generation and moderate leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, as reflected in declining net profit margins and ROE.

Income Statement

Murphy Oil's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is at 29.46%, indicating a moderate level of profitability. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 10.25% from 13.49% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in net income relative to revenue. Revenue has contracted by 1.16% in the TTM period, following a previous decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin has also decreased, but the EBITDA margin remains strong at 50.25%, indicating robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 5.45% in the TTM period, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio is healthy, showing that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed by equity, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Murphy Oil's cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate has surged by 51.28% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high, suggesting efficient conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is stable, demonstrating consistent cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.75B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B	1.75B
Gross Profit	1.04B	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B	-8.01M
EBITDA	1.32B	1.54B	1.95B	2.38B	1.06B	-392.37M
Net Income	142.68M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	-73.66M	-1.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.73T	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B	10.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	425.96B	423.57M	317.07M	491.96M	521.18M	310.61M
Total Debt	2.22T	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	3.37B	3.94B
Total Liabilities	4.48T	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B	6.23B
Stockholders Equity	5.25T	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.16B	4.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	998.60B	1.73B	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M	-70.06M
Operating Cash Flow	998.60B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B	802.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.84B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M	-859.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.64B	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M	39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.02, above the 50-day MA of 27.85, and above the 200-day MA of 24.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	76 Outperform	$4.71B	7.15	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.09B	2.89	16.58%	4.14%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRC	72 Outperform	$3.94B	10.95	11.06%	3.32%	33.85%	-34.08%
CIVI	71 Outperform	$2.33B	3.96	9.56%	7.59%	-6.52%	-32.26%
MUR	68 Neutral	$4.06B	28.98	2.76%	4.28%	-13.92%	-68.34%
GPOR	68 Neutral	$3.90B	―	0.08%	―	38.16%	-115.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Exceeds Guidance Amid Volatility Concerns

Murphy Oil Corporation’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust operational performance, with the company exceeding production guidance and achieving significant cost reductions. Despite these positive developments, the sentiment was tempered by concerns over macroeconomic volatility and anticipated increases in operating expenses in the upcoming quarter.

Murphy Oil Reports Increased Production and Debt Reduction

Murphy Oil Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company with a diverse portfolio of onshore and offshore assets, focusing on exploration and development across multiple continents. In its third-quarter earnings report for 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation reported a sequential increase in production, reaching 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD), and reduced its debt by $50 million while distributing $46 million in dividends to shareholders. The company also made significant progress on its Lac Da Vang project in Vietnam, completing the platform jacket installation ahead of schedule. Despite reporting a net loss of $3 million for the quarter, Murphy Oil achieved an adjusted net income of $58.1 million, demonstrating strong operational performance. The company maintained its full-year production and capital expenditure guidance, highlighting its financial discipline and strategic focus. Looking forward, Murphy Oil remains committed to executing its offshore exploration and appraisal programs, aiming to enhance shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiency.

Murphy Oil’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth Amid Challenges

Murphy Oil’s recent earnings call revealed a generally optimistic sentiment, driven by strong production results and operational efficiencies. The company showcased promising exploration prospects and effective cost management strategies. Despite facing challenges in offshore Canada, fluctuating AECO prices, and operational issues in the Gulf of America, the overall sentiment leaned slightly positive due to operational successes and future growth prospects.