Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Murphy Oil

(NYSE:MUR)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$25.00

▲(11.11%Upside)

Murphy Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the most significant factors driving the stock score. Despite some technical resistance and challenges highlighted in the earnings call, the company's strategic initiatives and robust cash flow position it favorably for future growth.

Positive Factors

Exploration Success

MUR announced an oil discovery at its Hai Su Vang-1X exploration well offshore Vietnam, which could support a future commercial development.

Growth Strategy

MUR's updated multi-year outlook suggests disciplined oil-weighted growth in 2025-27+, with longer-term upside from its exploration portfolio.

Negative Factors

Financial Estimates

Analysts reduce 2025 CFPS/EBITDX estimates by ~10% due to lower oil volumes and higher cash costs.

Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.07B

Dividend Yield5.55%

Average Volume (3M)2.62M

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3

Beta (1Y)0.65

Revenue Growth-14.90%

EPS Growth-27.53%

CountryUS

Employees750

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength46

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.56

Shares Outstanding142,716,060

10 Day Avg. Volume1,906,349

30 Day Avg. Volume2,616,240

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.44

Price to Book (P/B)0.77

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio2.39

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$26.67

Price Target Upside18.53% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering13

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMurphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyMurphy Oil Corporation generates revenue through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's primary revenue streams are derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons, which are produced from its onshore and offshore assets. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the market prices of oil and gas, production volumes, and the efficient management of operational costs. Additionally, Murphy Oil may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further supporting its revenue generation. The company's financial performance is closely tied to global energy market trends and commodity price fluctuations.

Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 8.70%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with Murphy Oil reporting significant operational achievements and shareholder returns but facing production challenges and negative free cash flow. While strategic acquisitions and discoveries in Vietnam bolster future potential, ongoing production impacts and the possibility of reduced capital spending due to lower oil prices present notable risks.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Shareholder Returns

Murphy returned $147 million to shareholders in Q1 2025 through $100 million in share repurchases and $47 million in dividends.

Significant Oil Discoveries in Vietnam

Drilled an oil discovery at the Lok Da Hong 1X Pink Camel exploration well, encountering 106 feet of net oil pay. Estimated resource potential of 30 to 60 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Operational Safety Milestone

Achieved 1,000,000 work hours with no lost time injuries during platform construction for the Lok Da Vong field development project.

Tupper Montney Production Success

Drilled the two longest lateral wells in company history and achieved a 30% increase in initial production rates with new completion style.

Acquisition of FPSO

Purchased the Pioneer floating production storage and offloading vessel in the Gulf of Mexico for $104 million, expected to reduce annual net operating expenses by approximately $50 million.

Negative Updates

Production Impacts in Gulf of Mexico

Experienced approximately 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of production impacts due to nonoperated unplanned downtime and weather-related delays.

Offshore Canada Production Curtailments

Faced production curtailments in nonoperated offshore Canada due to temporary logistics challenges, impacting first-quarter results.

First Quarter Free Cash Flow Negative

Murphy's free cash flow was negative in Q1, leading to a draw on the credit facility to fund operations and share buybacks.

Potential for Reduced Capital Spending

Murphy may significantly reduce spending in 2025 if oil prices remain below $55 per barrel, which could impact future production growth.

Company Guidance

During the Murphy Oil Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company outlined its strategic priorities and financial guidance. Murphy plans to maintain a capital expenditure range between $1.135 billion and $1.285 billion for 2025 and aims to allocate a minimum of 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholder returns, primarily through buybacks. The company is targeting a long-term debt goal of $1 billion and has $550 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Murphy produced 157,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter, generating $636 million in revenue with average realized oil prices of $72 per barrel. The company forecasts second-quarter production of 177,000 to 185,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and reaffirms its full-year production range of 174,500 to 182,500 barrels per day. Murphy remains committed to operational excellence, portfolio expansion, and returning cash to shareholders.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy Oil's financial statements show strong profitability and operational efficiency, with a high gross profit margin and robust revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with manageable debt levels, although asset volatility is a concern. Cash flow stability has improved, presenting a positive outlook.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Murphy Oil shows strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 99.8% and net profit margin of 7.5% TTM. Revenue growth has been robust, with a significant increase from 2019 to TTM 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect strong operating efficiency, although there was a decline in revenue in 2022.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position, with an equity ratio of 55.3% TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable at 0.39, indicating manageable debt levels. However, past fluctuations in total assets and liabilities warrant attention for potential volatility.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow from operations remains strong, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio. Free cash flow has improved significantly, with a notable growth rate, providing financial flexibility. However, previous years saw less stability in cash flows.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.03B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B	1.75B
	Gross Profit
3.03B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B	-8.01M
	EBIT
11.58M	1.04B	1.59B	1.02B	-293.14M
	EBITDA
1.25B	1.95B	2.44B	1.12B	-325.02M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	48.75M	-1.26B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
423.57M	317.07M	492.00M	521.20M	310.60M
	Total Assets
9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B	10.62B
	Total Debt
2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	2.47B	2.99B
	Net Debt
1.64B	1.77B	2.29B	1.94B	2.68B
	Total Liabilities
4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B	6.23B
	Stockholders Equity
5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.32B	4.39B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.73B	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M	-70.06M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B	802.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M	-859.02M
	Financing Cash Flow
-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M	39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price22.50

Price Trends

50DMA

21.95

Positive

100DMA

24.53

Negative

200DMA

28.31

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.02

Negative

RSI

57.06

Neutral

STOCH

62.20

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.70, above the 50-day MA of 21.95, and below the 200-day MA of 28.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	79 Outperform	$4.78B	9.97	32.69%	―	54.19%	37.69%
CRC	75 Outperform	$3.92B	7.97	17.86%	3.52%	41.68%	53.13%
MUR	74 Outperform	$3.07B	8.27	7.54%	5.55%	-14.90%	-27.53%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.75B	3.37	20.28%	3.13%	26.04%	11.96%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.89B	14.94	19.93%	10.97%	-12.71%	-39.85%
GPOR	63 Neutral	$3.35B	16.69	-16.01%	―	10.44%	-139.05%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.22B	3.16	-4.49%	5.63%	0.82%	-49.15%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MUR

Murphy Oil

22.50

-16.22

-41.89%

SM Energy

24.92

-22.27

-47.19%

BSM

Black Stone Minerals

13.67

-0.94

-6.43%

VIST

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

50.01

5.62

12.66%

CRC

California Resources Corp

44.64

-1.24

-2.70%

GPOR

Gulfport Energy

191.02

29.98

18.62%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Murphy Oil Highlights Strategic Priorities at UBS Conference

Positive

May 19, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Murphy Oil‘s management, including CEO Eric M. Hambly, will host investor meetings at the UBS Austin Energy Conference. The company highlighted its strategic priorities for 2025, including maintaining operational excellence, expanding its multi-basin portfolio, and delivering on capital allocation commitments. Murphy Oil achieved significant milestones such as zero lost time injuries, successful oil discoveries in Vietnam, and record drilling achievements in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney. The company returned $147 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, reinforcing its commitment to rewarding shareholders while targeting a long-term debt goal of $1.0 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Murphy Oil Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

May 15, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several proposals were voted on. The stockholders elected the directors proposed by management, approved executive compensation, adopted the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, and confirmed KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and strategic planning, reinforcing its operational framework and aligning executive incentives with long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.