Murphy Oil (MUR)
NYSE:MUR
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Murphy Oil
(NYSE:MUR)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(11.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial performance—steady operating cash flow and manageable leverage, but weaker profitability and declining free-cash-flow momentum. The earnings call was constructive on execution and maintained guidance, yet weighed down by exploration write-offs and project/commodity uncertainty. Technicals are mixed with mild short-term weakness, and valuation is a drag due to a high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Operating cash flow strength
Sustained operating cash flow provides durable funding for capex, dividends and opportunistic buybacks without relying on new external financing. Strong OCF cushions commodity cyclicality and supports the company’s stated capital-allocation framework over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Exploration write-offs
Large one-off exploration charges illustrate frontier risk and can materially erode quarterly earnings and free cash flow. Repeated unsuccessful high-cost exploration reduces capital efficiency and can dilute returns on invested capital over multiple periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash flow strength
Sustained operating cash flow provides durable funding for capex, dividends and opportunistic buybacks without relying on new external financing. Strong OCF cushions commodity cyclicality and supports the company’s stated capital-allocation framework over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.45B
Dividend Yield4.15%
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.8
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth-5.06%
EPS Growth-77.54%
CountryUS
Employees750
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding143,349,580
10 Day Avg. Volume1,678,910
30 Day Avg. Volume1,762,627
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio11.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.15Price Target Upside14.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)3.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.19B
Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas l...
How the Company Makes Money
Murphy Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its portfolio of operated and non-operated wells and fields. Revenue is recognized largely from the sale of produced volumes at prevailing...
Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights operational execution and financial resilience: strong cash flow ($429M), positive adjusted net income ($47M), production outperformance (roughly +3,000 boe/d from both Eagle Ford and Gulf of America), and advancing appraisal/development programs (Vietnam Lac Da Vang, Chinook). Management maintained capital guidance ($1.2–$1.3B) and preserved shareholder return commitments while emphasizing opportunistic buybacks and balance sheet flexibility. Key negatives include $67M exploration charges from unsuccessful Cote d'Ivoire wells (which exceeded adjusted net income), drilling delays at Bubale with no definitive result yet, stalled Paon sanctioning due to gas pricing disagreements, and ongoing commodity price volatility that raises uncertainty and could impact timing of capital returns.Positive Updates
Strong cash flow and positive earnings
Generated cash flow of $429 million and adjusted net income of $47 million in Q1 2026, supported by an oil-weighted unhedged portfolio and higher realized prices late in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Exploration write-offs in Cote d'Ivoire
Recorded $67 million of exploration expense related to two unsuccessful wells in Cote d'Ivoire during the quarter. Notably, this $67 million exploration charge exceeded adjusted net income of $47 million, implying exploration costs outpaced reported adjusted earnings by about $20 million in Q1.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash flow and positive earnings
Generated cash flow of $429 million and adjusted net income of $47 million in Q1 2026, supported by an oil-weighted unhedged portfolio and higher realized prices late in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Murphy maintained full‑year 2026 capital guidance of $1.2–$1.3 billion and reiterated its capital allocation framework (targeting roughly 50% of adjusted free cash flow to returns while taking an opportunistic approach to buybacks), reporting $429 million of cash flow and $47 million of adjusted net income in Q1 (including $67 million of exploration expense), with an average realized oil price of $72/boe for the quarter (March >$90/boe as prices rose ~50% Jan–Mar); production beat the high end of guidance (with ~+3,000 boe/d contribution each from onshore Eagle Ford and the Gulf of America), Eagle Ford is running near ~38,000 boe/d in 2026 versus a 30–35k boe/d medium‑term plateau, Chinook and Lac Da Vang (first oil Q4 2026, ramp through 2027) are expected to add material volumes, Cello and Banjo are expected to contribute ~4,000 b/d net in 2028 (online late‑2027), LDT North carries a 40–80 MMboe mean/upside recoverable range, management budgets exploration at roughly 10–15% of capital longer‑term, the 2026 spend is front‑loaded (heavy first‑half weighting) and management cautioned that a follow‑up appraisal at Bubale would likely push spend toward or above the high end of the capex range.Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.78B | 2.69B | 3.02B | 3.45B | 4.22B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.92B | 577.76M | 1.00B | 2.62B | 2.38B | 1.28B |
| EBITDA | 1.32B | 1.43B | 1.54B | 1.95B | 2.38B | 1.06B |
| Net Income | 84.15M | 104.20M | 407.17M | 661.56M | 965.05M | -73.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.04B | 9.83B | 9.67B | 9.77B | 10.31B | 10.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 378.75M | 377.00M | 423.57M | 317.07M | 491.96M | 521.18M |
| Total Debt | 2.30B | 2.20B | 2.07B | 2.09B | 2.79B | 3.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.80B | 4.60B | 4.33B | 4.22B | 5.16B | 5.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.10B | 5.12B | 5.19B | 5.36B | 4.99B | 4.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 177.93M | 396.40M | 820.83M | 647.16M | 1.05B | 733.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 1.25B | 1.73B | 1.75B | 2.17B | 1.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.07B | -1.03B | -908.16M | -998.68M | -1.11B | -417.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -211.33M | -264.06M | -716.54M | -923.72M | -1.08B | -794.51M |
Murphy Oil Technical Analysis
Negative
36.87
Price Trends
38.96
Negative
35.45
Positive
31.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
46.26
Neutral
31.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.32, below the 50-day MA of 38.96, and above the 200-day MA of 31.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUR.
Murphy Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $7.22B | 18.32 | 30.86% | ― | 66.68% | 44.46% | |
70 Outperform | $3.20B | 5.92 | 32.67% | ― | 49.58% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $8.10B | -2.68 | 2.49% | 4.38% | 27.35% | -66.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $5.45B | 27.85 | 1.64% | 4.15% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
58 Neutral | $5.51B | -2.16 | -13.78% | 3.56% | 3.77% | -192.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
MUR
Murphy Oil
38.00
18.01
90.11%
SM
SM Energy
33.77
11.42
51.08%
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
75.41
26.25
53.40%
CRC
California Resources Corp
62.04
21.28
52.19%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
178.22
-16.46
-8.45%
Murphy Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Murphy Oil Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Stock Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its May 13, 2026 annual meeting, Murphy Oil Corporation’s shareholders elected all ten management-nominated directors, signaling continuity in the company’s governance and strategic direction. Investors also cast an advisory vote in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.