Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.26B
• Dividend Yield: 4.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -13.92%
• EPS Growth: -68.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 142,830,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,177,246
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,311,035
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.67
• 1Y Price Target: $31.50
• Price Target Upside: -14.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.57B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(5.95% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/30/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/30/26

The score is primarily supported by manageable leverage and still-healthy operating cash generation, plus a constructive earnings call highlighting cost discipline, liquidity, and exploration/appraisal upside. It is held back by materially weaker TTM profitability and free-cash-flow contraction, mixed/neutral technical momentum, and a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Murphy's leverage sits at an industry-manageable level (debt-to-equity ~0.43), improved versus prior years, giving the company durable financial flexibility. This lower structural leverage reduces near-term refinancing pressure, supports dividend and capex optionality, and preserves room to fund multi-year projects without forcing asset sales in mild price downturns.

Operating Cash Generation

Consistent operating cash flow (~$1.25B TTM) materially exceeds reported net income, signaling cash-backed earnings and robust core cash generation. That cash flow underpins the dividend, funds discretionary capital, and gives management durable capacity to fund exploration and selective development even if earnings remain volatile across commodity cycles.

Exploration & Vietnam Upside

High exploration success (80%) and strong Hai Su Vang appraisal results (combined ~12,000 bbl/d test rates and resources above prior midpoints) create a durable growth runway. If developed, Hai Su Vang and Lac Da Vang provide multi-year reserve and production optionality that can materially scale the portfolio and diversify geography beyond U.S. shale over the next decade.

Negative Factors

Weakened Profitability & FCF

TTM profitability and free cash flow have materially declined versus prior cycles, compressing margins to ~5.2% and cutting FCF to ~$396M. Structurally lower margins reduce internal funding for growth and capital returns, increasing reliance on commodity-price recovery or higher production to restore prior returns and balance-sheet momentum.

Near-term Production & Reserve Headwinds

Guided 2026 production is ~6% lower year-over-year and proved developed reserves fell roughly 7%, eroding the near-term production base. This structural reduction in short-term volumes limits cash-flow growth potential, raises the bar on exploration success to replace lost output, and may constrain sustainable distributions until new projects ramp.

Commodity & Royalty Sensitivity

Rising royalty burdens and broad commodity-price exposure create ongoing structural sensitivity in Murphy's cash flows. A near-doubling of Montney royalties materially reduces net gas volumes and cash per unit produced, making revenue and margins more volatile and increasing the need for higher realized prices or production growth to sustain long-term cash generation.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its portfolio of operated and non-operated wells and fields. Revenue is recognized largely from the sale of produced volumes at prevailing market prices (often benchmark-linked), so earnings are heavily influenced by commodity prices and production levels. Key revenue streams include: - Crude oil sales: Typically the largest contributor, driven by daily production volumes multiplied by realized oil prices (which reflect benchmarks, regional differentials, quality adjustments, and transportation/marketing arrangements). - Natural gas sales: Revenue from gas production sold into wholesale markets, with realized pricing affected by regional indices, basis differentials, and any transportation commitments. - NGL sales: Revenue from liquids (e.g., ethane, propane, butanes) separated from natural gas streams and sold based on NGL market pricing. Additional factors that contribute to cash flow and earnings include: - Working interests and royalty burdens: Murphy’s net revenue depends on its ownership share in each asset and the royalties and other burdens payable to mineral owners and governments. - Hedging and price risk management: The company may use derivative instruments to reduce exposure to commodity price volatility; gains or losses from these instruments can affect reported results and cash flows depending on hedge structure and accounting treatment. - Asset portfolio management: Buying, selling, or divesting properties can generate proceeds or gains/losses and reshape future production and cash flow. - Joint ventures and non-operated interests: In non-operated projects, Murphy funds its share of costs and receives its share of production revenues while another operator runs day-to-day operations. Murphy Oil is an upstream-focused company; revenues are therefore concentrated in commodity sales rather than downstream refining or retail operations.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet is a clear support (debt-to-equity ~0.43) and operating cash flow remains solid (~$1.25B, exceeding net income). However, TTM fundamentals cooled sharply: net income fell to ~$104M with net margin ~5.2% and free cash flow dropped to ~$396M, highlighting cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability weakened materially versus prior years: net income fell to about $104M and the net margin compressed to ~5.2% (vs ~13.5% in 2024 and ~19–23% in 2022–2023). Revenue has also been trending down over the last several periods (negative growth in 2023–TTM), consistent with a tougher commodity backdrop. A key positive is that operating profitability remains positive in TTM, and the company has shown it can generate strong margins in up-cycles (2022–2023), but earnings look more volatile and less resilient at current levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable for the industry: total debt is ~$2.2B in TTM against ~$5.1B of equity, with debt-to-equity around ~0.43 (improved from ~0.68 in 2020 and ~0.57 in 2021). Equity remains sizable and relatively stable across the period, supporting balance-sheet durability. The main weakness is reduced profitability translating into a lower return on equity in TTM (~2.8%) versus the stronger 2022–2023 period, which can limit balance-sheet momentum if the lower-earnings environment persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a strength, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$1.25B exceeding net income (coverage ~1.67x), indicating earnings are backed by cash. However, free cash flow declined sharply to ~$396M in TTM and contracted versus 2024, signaling less cash available for debt reduction, buybacks, or dividends. Overall, cash flow is still positive and supportive, but it is clearly more pressured than the prior two years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.72B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B
Gross Profit	1.95B	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B
EBITDA	1.25B	1.54B	1.95B	2.38B	1.06B
Net Income	104.20M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	-73.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.83B	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	377.00M	423.57M	317.07M	491.96M	521.18M
Total Debt	2.20B	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	3.37B
Total Liabilities	4.60B	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B
Stockholders Equity	5.12B	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	396.40M	820.83M	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M
Operating Cash Flow	1.25B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.03B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-264.06M	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.58, above the 50-day MA of 32.32, and above the 200-day MA of 27.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SM	76 Outperform	$6.39B	3.32	14.00%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRC	76 Outperform	$5.45B	10.72	10.34%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
VIST	71 Outperform	$6.20B	6.91	37.31%	―	50.79%	32.97%
GPOR	71 Outperform	$3.65B	7.16	22.73%	―	38.16%	-115.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
MUR	62 Neutral	$5.26B	42.92	2.03%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On January 28, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting net income of $11.9 million for the quarter and $104.2 million for the year, total 2025 production of 182,300 BOEPD at the high end of guidance, and preliminary year-end proved reserves of 715 MMBOE, maintaining an 11-year reserve life and 103 percent reserve replacement. The company emphasized strong operational execution, including successful oil discoveries and appraisal activity in offshore Vietnam and the Gulf of Mexico, reduced lease operating and drilling costs, a strategic FPSO acquisition, and a strengthened balance sheet and liquidity profile via debt reduction, an upsized revolving credit facility, and new long-dated notes, while returning $286 million to shareholders in 2025 and raising its quarterly dividend by 8 percent to $0.35 per share, payable March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026, signaling confidence in its cash generation and long-term growth outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On January 23, 2026, Murphy Oil closed a $500 million offering of 6.500% notes maturing in 2034, issued under its existing indenture structure and sold through a syndicate of underwriters. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem in full its 5.875% notes due 2027 and 6.375% notes due 2028, repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, cover transaction-related costs and fund general corporate purposes, a move that reshapes its debt maturity profile and may lower near‑term refinancing and liquidity risk while adding longer-duration fixed‑rate capital under covenants that restrict additional liens, certain sale-leasebacks, major asset transfers and new subsidiary indebtedness.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Sell with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On January 8, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation announced it planned to issue $500 million of senior notes due 2034 under an existing shelf registration, subject to market and other conditions. The company said it expects to use the proceeds to redeem in full its 5.875% notes due 2027 and 6.375% notes due 2028, repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, cover transaction-related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes, a move that would refinance nearer-term debt and potentially strengthen its balance sheet and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil highlights Vietnam appraisal success and outlook

On January 2, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation amended its existing revolving credit facility, extending the maturity from October 7, 2029 to January 2, 2031, increasing total lender commitments from $1.35 billion to $2.0 billion, and expanding letter of credit capacity from $250 million to $415 million, moves that significantly enhanced the company’s liquidity and financial flexibility. Separately, on January 6, 2026, the company reported that a subsidiary had successfully drilled the Hai Su Vang-2X appraisal well offshore Vietnam in Block 15-2/17, and management scheduled investor meetings and a conference appearance at the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference 2026 for January 7, underscoring Murphy Oil’s ongoing international exploration progress and its efforts to highlight growth prospects and capital allocation priorities to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.