Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.67B
• Dividend Yield: 4.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -13.92%
• EPS Growth: -68.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 142,738,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,899,534
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,904,367
• PEG Ratio: -0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.53
• 1Y Price Target: $28.70
• Price Target Upside: -12.34% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▼(-2.26% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance—especially strong free cash flow generation and moderate leverage—supported by a positive, execution-focused earnings update and liquidity-enhancing corporate actions. Offsetting these positives are weak near-term technicals and a mixed valuation profile (high P/E despite a strong dividend yield).

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained, material free cash flow growth and high operating-cash-to-income conversion provide durable funding for capex, dividends, debt repayment and opportunistic M&A. This cash robustness lowers refinancing risk and supports strategic flexibility through commodity cycles.

Improved liquidity and credit flexibility

A longer-dated, larger revolving facility and expanded letter-of-credit capacity materially reduce near-term liquidity strain and refinancing risk. This structural improvement underpins the company’s ability to fund a multi-year capital program and international development activity with greater certainty.

Consistent production outperformance and cost discipline

Repeatedly beating production targets while cutting unit operating costs demonstrates operational execution and scalable efficiencies. Low breakeven wells in core basins improve resilience to lower prices and support predictable volumes and cash generation over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Asset impairment and reduced development

An impairment tied to high operating expenses and the removal of planned wells signals weaker economic returns on specific assets and reduced reserve additions. This structurally lowers future production optionality and can depress long-term production profiles and cash flow potential.

Declining profitability metrics

Sustained margin compression and weak ROE reduce retained earnings and the firm’s ability to reinvest profitably. Even with good cash flow, lower net margins constrain long-term capital returns and make funding growth or payouts more dependent on favorable commodity prices.

Weak revenue and earnings growth

Material revenue contraction and a severe EPS decline indicate demand, price realization or asset base pressures that impair sustainable earnings power. Over the next several months this heightens execution risk, constrains reinvestment capacity, and increases sensitivity to commodity swings.

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy Oil generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company engages in exploration and production activities, which are crucial for finding and extracting hydrocarbons. A significant portion of its revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas at prevailing market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Murphy Oil benefits from hedging strategies that help stabilize cash flows during periods of price volatility. The company has also entered into joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, Murphy Oil invests in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency and reduce costs, ultimately supporting its profitability.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy Oil exhibits a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow generation and moderate leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, as reflected in declining net profit margins and ROE.

Income Statement

Murphy Oil's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is at 29.46%, indicating a moderate level of profitability. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 10.25% from 13.49% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in net income relative to revenue. Revenue has contracted by 1.16% in the TTM period, following a previous decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin has also decreased, but the EBITDA margin remains strong at 50.25%, indicating robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 5.45% in the TTM period, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio is healthy, showing that a significant portion of the company's assets is financed by equity, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Murphy Oil's cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate has surged by 51.28% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high, suggesting efficient conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is stable, demonstrating consistent cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.75B	3.02B	3.45B	4.22B	2.80B	1.75B
Gross Profit	1.04B	1.00B	2.62B	2.38B	1.28B	-8.01M
EBITDA	1.32B	1.54B	1.95B	2.38B	1.06B	-392.37M
Net Income	142.68M	407.17M	661.56M	965.05M	-73.66M	-1.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.73B	9.67B	9.77B	10.31B	10.30B	10.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	425.96M	423.57M	317.07M	491.96M	521.18M	310.61M
Total Debt	2.22B	2.07B	2.09B	2.79B	3.37B	3.94B
Total Liabilities	4.48B	4.33B	4.22B	5.16B	5.98B	6.23B
Stockholders Equity	5.12B	5.19B	5.36B	4.99B	4.16B	4.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	405.44M	820.83M	647.16M	1.05B	733.95M	-70.06M
Operating Cash Flow	1.43B	1.73B	1.75B	2.17B	1.42B	802.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.03B	-908.16M	-998.68M	-1.11B	-417.71M	-840.58M
Financing Cash Flow	-251.63M	-716.54M	-923.72M	-1.08B	-794.51M	39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 32.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.78, above the 50-day MA of 30.72, and above the 200-day MA of 25.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	76 Outperform	$4.31B	6.36	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
CIVI	73 Outperform	$2.25B	3.75	9.56%	7.36%	-6.52%	-32.26%
CRC	71 Outperform	$4.07B	10.59	11.06%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
MUR	67 Neutral	$4.67B	33.19	2.76%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SM	―	$2.08B	2.81	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
GPOR	66 Neutral	$3.47B	-94.09	0.08%	―	38.16%	-115.65%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Murphy Oil Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

On January 8, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation announced it planned to issue $500 million of senior notes due 2034 under an existing shelf registration, subject to market and other conditions. The company said it expects to use the proceeds to redeem in full its 5.875% notes due 2027 and 6.375% notes due 2028, repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, cover transaction-related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes, a move that would refinance nearer-term debt and potentially strengthen its balance sheet and capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Murphy Oil highlights Vietnam appraisal success and outlook

On January 2, 2026, Murphy Oil Corporation amended its existing revolving credit facility, extending the maturity from October 7, 2029 to January 2, 2031, increasing total lender commitments from $1.35 billion to $2.0 billion, and expanding letter of credit capacity from $250 million to $415 million, moves that significantly enhanced the company’s liquidity and financial flexibility. Separately, on January 6, 2026, the company reported that a subsidiary had successfully drilled the Hai Su Vang-2X appraisal well offshore Vietnam in Block 15-2/17, and management scheduled investor meetings and a conference appearance at the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference 2026 for January 7, underscoring Murphy Oil’s ongoing international exploration progress and its efforts to highlight growth prospects and capital allocation priorities to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.