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Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)
NYSE:MUR

Murphy Oil (MUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Murphy Oil

(NYSE:MUR)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(5.09%Upside)
Murphy Oil's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the most significant factors driving the stock score. Despite some technical resistance and challenges highlighted in the earnings call, the company's strategic initiatives and robust cash flow position it favorably for future growth.
Positive Factors
Exploration Success
MUR announced an oil discovery at its Hai Su Vang-1X exploration well offshore Vietnam, which could support a future commercial development.
Growth Strategy
MUR's updated multi-year outlook suggests disciplined oil-weighted growth in 2025-27+, with longer-term upside from its exploration portfolio.
Negative Factors
Financial Estimates
Analysts reduce 2025 CFPS/EBITDX estimates by ~10% due to lower oil volumes and higher cash costs.

Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Murphy Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMurphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyMurphy Oil Corporation generates revenue through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's primary revenue streams are derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons, which are produced from its onshore and offshore assets. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the market prices of oil and gas, production volumes, and the efficient management of operational costs. Additionally, Murphy Oil may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further supporting its revenue generation. The company's financial performance is closely tied to global energy market trends and commodity price fluctuations.

Murphy Oil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.93%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with Murphy Oil reporting significant operational achievements and shareholder returns but facing production challenges and negative free cash flow. While strategic acquisitions and discoveries in Vietnam bolster future potential, ongoing production impacts and the possibility of reduced capital spending due to lower oil prices present notable risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Shareholder Returns
Murphy returned $147 million to shareholders in Q1 2025 through $100 million in share repurchases and $47 million in dividends.
Significant Oil Discoveries in Vietnam
Drilled an oil discovery at the Lok Da Hong 1X Pink Camel exploration well, encountering 106 feet of net oil pay. Estimated resource potential of 30 to 60 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Operational Safety Milestone
Achieved 1,000,000 work hours with no lost time injuries during platform construction for the Lok Da Vong field development project.
Tupper Montney Production Success
Drilled the two longest lateral wells in company history and achieved a 30% increase in initial production rates with new completion style.
Acquisition of FPSO
Purchased the Pioneer floating production storage and offloading vessel in the Gulf of Mexico for $104 million, expected to reduce annual net operating expenses by approximately $50 million.
Negative Updates
Production Impacts in Gulf of Mexico
Experienced approximately 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of production impacts due to nonoperated unplanned downtime and weather-related delays.
Offshore Canada Production Curtailments
Faced production curtailments in nonoperated offshore Canada due to temporary logistics challenges, impacting first-quarter results.
First Quarter Free Cash Flow Negative
Murphy's free cash flow was negative in Q1, leading to a draw on the credit facility to fund operations and share buybacks.
Potential for Reduced Capital Spending
Murphy may significantly reduce spending in 2025 if oil prices remain below $55 per barrel, which could impact future production growth.
Company Guidance
During the Murphy Oil Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company outlined its strategic priorities and financial guidance. Murphy plans to maintain a capital expenditure range between $1.135 billion and $1.285 billion for 2025 and aims to allocate a minimum of 50% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholder returns, primarily through buybacks. The company is targeting a long-term debt goal of $1 billion and has $550 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Murphy produced 157,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter, generating $636 million in revenue with average realized oil prices of $72 per barrel. The company forecasts second-quarter production of 177,000 to 185,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and reaffirms its full-year production range of 174,500 to 182,500 barrels per day. Murphy remains committed to operational excellence, portfolio expansion, and returning cash to shareholders.

Murphy Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Murphy Oil exhibits solid financial health with strong cash flow generation, stable profitability, and a conservative leverage profile. Despite challenges in revenue growth, its robustness in profitability and cash flow metrics positions it well for future resilience in the volatile oil and gas industry.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Murphy Oil's income statement shows a strong recovery and stabilization in profitability metrics. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 30.3%, and net profit margin is around 13.5%, reflecting solid cost management despite a slight revenue decline compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins at 12.6% and 46.7% respectively, indicate a robust operating performance. However, revenue declined by 4% from the previous annual report, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating a conservative leverage profile. The return on equity (ROE) is approximately 7.4%, showing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 53.7%, demonstrating a strong capital base. These metrics suggest financial stability and low risk from leverage.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Murphy Oil's cash flow statement is robust, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.18, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow has grown by approximately 8.7% compared to the previous year, showcasing strong cash management and operational efficiency. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 4.82 highlights excellent cash conversion capabilities.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.90B3.02B3.45B4.22B2.80B1.75B
Gross Profit
878.08M1.00B2.62B2.38B1.28B-8.01M
EBIT
365.77M11.58M1.04B1.59B1.02B-293.14M
EBITDA
1.35B1.25B1.95B2.44B1.12B-325.02M
Net Income Common Stockholders
390.20M407.17M661.56M965.05M48.75M-1.26B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
521.20M423.57M317.07M492.00M521.20M310.60M
Total Assets
10.30B9.67B9.77B10.31B10.30B10.62B
Total Debt
2.47B2.07B2.09B2.79B2.47B2.99B
Net Debt
1.94B1.64B1.77B2.29B1.94B2.68B
Total Liabilities
5.98B4.33B4.22B5.16B5.98B6.23B
Stockholders Equity
4.32B5.19B5.36B4.99B4.32B4.39B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.88B1.73B647.16M1.05B733.95M-70.06M
Operating Cash Flow
1.63B1.73B1.75B2.17B1.42B802.71M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.03B-908.16M-998.68M-1.11B-417.71M-859.02M
Financing Cash Flow
-534.17M-716.54M-923.72M-1.08B-794.51M39.71M

Murphy Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price23.79
Price Trends
50DMA
21.77
Positive
100DMA
24.35
Negative
200DMA
28.19
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.24
Negative
RSI
65.05
Neutral
STOCH
86.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.83, above the 50-day MA of 21.77, and below the 200-day MA of 28.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MUR.

Murphy Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$4.79B9.8332.69%54.19%37.69%
CRCRC
75
Outperform
$3.98B8.0917.86%3.47%41.68%53.13%
MUMUR
74
Outperform
$3.21B8.647.54%5.55%-14.90%-27.53%
SMSM
72
Outperform
$2.85B3.4920.28%3.13%26.04%11.96%
BSBSM
70
Outperform
$2.89B14.9419.93%10.97%-12.71%-39.85%
63
Neutral
$3.39B16.69-16.01%10.44%-139.05%
57
Neutral
$7.22B3.15-4.49%5.63%0.82%-49.15%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.02
-15.90
-40.85%
SM
SM Energy
25.59
-21.78
-45.98%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
13.73
-0.92
-6.28%
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
49.31
5.94
13.70%
CRC
California Resources Corp
44.76
-0.16
-0.36%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
188.13
26.40
16.32%

Murphy Oil Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Murphy Oil Highlights Strategic Priorities at UBS Conference
Positive
May 19, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Murphy Oil‘s management, including CEO Eric M. Hambly, will host investor meetings at the UBS Austin Energy Conference. The company highlighted its strategic priorities for 2025, including maintaining operational excellence, expanding its multi-basin portfolio, and delivering on capital allocation commitments. Murphy Oil achieved significant milestones such as zero lost time injuries, successful oil discoveries in Vietnam, and record drilling achievements in the Eagle Ford Shale and Tupper Montney. The company returned $147 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, reinforcing its commitment to rewarding shareholders while targeting a long-term debt goal of $1.0 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Murphy Oil Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 15, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Murphy Oil Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several proposals were voted on. The stockholders elected the directors proposed by management, approved executive compensation, adopted the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan, and confirmed KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and strategic planning, reinforcing its operational framework and aligning executive incentives with long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MUR) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Murphy Oil stock, see the MUR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.