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Vista Energy SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
▲(9.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and growth but constrained by weak/volatile free cash flow and higher leverage. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, while technical indicators reflect a weaker near-term trend. The latest earnings call was constructive with maintained guidance, strong quarterly results, and an explicit plan to delever, partially offset by cost and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Production Growth & Scale
Sustained production gains from Vaca Muerta and 27 net wells drilled in Q2 indicate durable volume growth. Higher, repeatable volumes strengthen cash generation potential, improve operating leverage on fixed field costs, and support longer-term revenue and export capacity.
Negative Factors
Volatile and Weak Free Cash Flow
Inconsistent FCF despite positive operating cash flow implies heavy reinvestment and working-capital swings. This constrains sustainable debt paydown, shareholder returns and flexibility for opportunistic M&A, leaving financing exposed if commodity prices deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth & Scale
Sustained production gains from Vaca Muerta and 27 net wells drilled in Q2 indicate durable volume growth. Higher, repeatable volumes strengthen cash generation potential, improve operating leverage on fixed field costs, and support longer-term revenue and export capacity.
Read all positive factors
Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)899.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth78.68%
EPS Growth34.53%
CountryUS
Employees584
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.93
Shares Outstanding111,442,406
10 Day Avg. Volume1,064,599
30 Day Avg. Volume899,630
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)1.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio-6.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.37Price Target Upside32.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)9.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.14B
Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., an entity established in 2017, concentrates on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas throughout Latin America through its various subsidiaries. A significant porti...
How the Company Makes Money
Vista makes money mainly by producing hydrocarbons from its operated upstream fields (primarily in Vaca Muerta) and selling those volumes into domestic and, when applicable, export markets. Its primary revenue stream is crude oil sales, typically ...
Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented very strong operational and financial performance: substantial year-over-year production growth (≈32%), an 89% revenue increase, nearly doubled Adjusted EBITDA (+99%), solid free cash flow generation ($491M net of acquisition), and successful strategic M&A that materially increased scale. Key risks and headwinds include sequential unit cost pressure from inflation, elevated near-term CapEx and investing outflows, remaining leverage above the ~1x target (1.41x reported; 1.25x pro forma), and some midstream execution risk tied to a specific VMOS component shipment. Management emphasized deleveraging, maintaining 2026 guidance ($3B Adjusted EBITDA at $85/bbl) and flexibility across growth, M&A and potential shareholder returns. Overall, positives substantially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Successful Acquisition and Scale Expansion
Closed acquisition of Equinor assets (Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro), adding ~14.2k BOE/d on average in Q2 and a run rate of ~21k BOE/d that will be fully reflected in Q3, materially increasing company scale.
Negative Updates
Sequential Unit Cost Pressure
Lifting cost of $4.5/BOE was 4% lower year-over-year but increased sequentially due to inflationary pressure on peso-denominated goods and services amid flat FX rates.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Acquisition and Scale Expansion
Closed acquisition of Equinor assets (Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro), adding ~14.2k BOE/d on average in Q2 and a run rate of ~21k BOE/d that will be fully reflected in Q3, materially increasing company scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vista maintained its $3.0 billion Adjusted EBITDA guidance at an $85/barrel price assumption and said every $10/barrel move in 2H oil would change Adjusted EBITDA by roughly $200 million; production guidance targets ~160k bpd in Q3 and ~170k bpd in Q4 for a full‑year figure of about 158k BOE/d, while management aims to reduce net leverage to around 1.0x Adjusted EBITDA by year‑end (Q2 net leverage was 1.41x, or 1.25x pro forma); Q2 results that underpin the plan included $805M Adjusted EBITDA, $491M free cash flow net of the Equinor payment, $467M CapEx, $322M net income, $89.4/boe realized oil price, and a $605M cash balance, with stated intent to use part of free cash flow to delever.Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.53B | 2.47B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M |
| Gross Profit | 1.74B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 1.97B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M |
| Net Income | 841.68M | 719.06M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.31B | 7.11B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 607.57M | 538.41M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M |
| Total Debt | 3.75B | 3.30B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.78B | 4.60B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.34B | 2.51B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 138.13M | -821.62M | -104.83M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.65B | 638.48M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.03B | -2.37B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 847.61M | 1.50B | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M |
Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Negative
69.50
Price Trends
67.74
Negative
69.22
Negative
60.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
48.73
Neutral
26.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.21, above the 50-day MA of 67.74, and above the 200-day MA of 60.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIST.
Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.30B | 5.23 | 21.19% | ― | 16.21% | 487.92% | |
66 Neutral | $7.85B | 8.89 | 31.04% | ― | 78.68% | 34.53% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $7.80B | 28.28 | 2.16% | 2.53% | 27.35% | -66.88% | |
60 Neutral | $5.70B | 67.36 | 5.71% | 3.47% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
60 Neutral | $4.67B | -10.14 | -13.78% | 3.00% | 3.77% | -192.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
65.96
22.99
53.50%
CNX
CNX Resources
35.14
6.36
22.10%
MUR
Murphy Oil
33.37
11.70
53.97%
SM
SM Energy
28.88
4.10
16.54%
CRC
California Resources Corp
52.08
6.14
13.36%
Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events
Vista Energy Buys Back 50,000 Series A Shares Under April 2026 Authorization
Aug 3, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. repurchased 50,000 Series A shares at a price of MXN 1,215.85 per share, for a total outlay of about MXN 60.8 million, excluding fees and value-added tax. The buyback was carried out under an authoriz...
Vista Energy Executes MXN 59 Million Share Buyback on Series A Stock
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Vista Energy repurchased 50,000 Series A shares at a price of MXN 1,181.40 per share, executing a buyback authorized at the general ordinary shareholders’ meeting held on April 28, 2026. The total amount of the repurchase r...
Vista Energy Executes MXN 58 Million Share Buyback in Mexico
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. repurchased 50,000 Series A shares at a price of MXN 1,161.63 per share, following authorization from its April 28, 2026 ordinary shareholders’ meeting. The total value of the repurchase was abo...
Vista Energy Executes MXN$56 Million Share Buyback Following April Authorization
Jul 29, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. repurchased 50,000 Series A shares at a price of MXN$1,128.97 per share under a buyback program approved at the general ordinary shareholders’ meeting on April 28, 2026. The transaction totaled ...
Vista Energy Repurchases 75,000 Series A Shares Under April 2026 Buyback Authorization
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. repurchased 75,000 Series A shares at a price of 1,183.44 Mexican pesos per share, in line with a share buyback authorization approved at the general ordinary shareholders’ meeting held on April...
Vista Energy Executes MXN$60.6 Million Share Buyback in July 2026
Jul 27, 2026
On July 24, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. repurchased 50,000 Series A shares at a price of MXN$1,213.01 per share, for a total consideration of about MXN$60.65 million excluding fees and value-added tax. The buyback, reported on July 27, 2026...
Vista Energy Files Q2 2026 Earnings Webcast with U.S. SEC
Jul 17, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Vista Energy filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of July, furnishing investors with its Second Quarter 2026 earnings webcast presentation. The filing, signed by Strategic Planning and I...
Vista Energy Files Unaudited Interim Financials for First Half of 2026
Jul 17, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has filed a Form 6-K for July 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, providing unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025. The filing also co...
Vista Energy Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results on Vaca Muerta Expansion and Higher Oil Prices
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, Vista Energy reported second‑quarter 2026 results that captured the first full impact of its May 1 acquisition of 25.1% of Bandurria Sur and 35% of Bajo del Toro. The company’s average production rose to 156,061 boe p...
Vista Energy Sets July Dates for Second-Quarter 2026 Results and Webcast
Jun 10, 2026
Vista Energy announced in Mexico City on June 10, 2026, that it plans to release its consolidated financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, after the market close. The company will discuss these quarterly results...
Vista Energy Raises 2026–2028 Outlook After Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro Acquisitions
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Vista Energy updated its 2026–2028 guidance and its 2030 vision, incorporating the recently acquired Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks into its medium- and long-term plan. The company said these non-operating working in...
Vista Energy Closes US$712 Million Acquisition of Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Assets
May 7, 2026
Vista Energy announced on May 7, 2026, that it has closed the acquisition of Equinor’s interests in two key Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina. The deal, announced previously in February 2026, adds a 25.1% non-operating working interest i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.