Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 894.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 50.79%
• EPS Growth: 32.97%
• Country: US
• Employees: 528
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.48
• Shares Outstanding: 95,195,885
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 735,628
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 894,638
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.15
• P/FCF Ratio: -55.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.62
• 1Y Price Target: $70.40
• Price Target Upside: 50.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.40B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $54.00 ▲(15.36% Upside)

Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong financial performance and valuation, supported by significant production and revenue growth. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges are notable risks. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but potential for a pullback exists. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook, despite some concerns about cash flow and oil prices.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective operational strategies, enhancing long-term financial health.

Production Efficiency

Lower lifting costs reflect improved operational efficiency, which can sustain margins and profitability over the long term.

Operational Expansion

Increasing well activity supports future production growth, bolstering the company's market position and revenue potential.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow suggests difficulties in covering operational expenses and investments, which could hinder long-term growth.

Decline in Realized Oil Prices

Declining oil prices can reduce revenue and profit margins, challenging the company's ability to maintain financial performance.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) is a publicly traded oil and gas company based in Mexico, primarily focused on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The company operates in key oil-producing regions, leveraging advanced technology and operational efficiencies to optimize its extraction processes. Vista's core products include crude oil and natural gas, which are sold to various markets domestically and internationally, contributing to the energy supply chain.

How the Company Makes Money

Vista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is built on the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources, where it earns income from selling extracted hydrocarbons at market prices. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with refineries and distributors, spot market sales, and participation in production-sharing contracts with government entities. Additionally, Vista may benefit from strategic partnerships with other energy companies and financial institutions, allowing for shared investments in exploration projects and technology advancements, which can enhance its production capabilities and profitability.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and profitability with efficient equity utilization. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges pose potential risks. Improving cash flow management and reducing debt levels are crucial for financial stability.

Income Statement

Vista Oil & Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.29% increase in the TTM period. The company maintains robust profitability metrics, with a net profit margin of 29.12% and an impressive EBITDA margin of 70.66%. However, the gross profit margin has declined from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the company achieves a strong return on equity of 33.43%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 35.72%, suggesting a balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow growth and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -1.08, indicating cash flow issues relative to profitability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.44 suggests moderate cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.23B	1.65B	1.17B	1.14B	652.19M	273.94M
Gross Profit	1.07B	1.26B	591.25M	630.24M	266.61M	2.43M
EBITDA	1.77B	1.10B	851.24M	706.13M	403.56M	87.19M
Net Income	727.14M	477.52M	396.95M	269.54M	50.65M	-102.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.74B	4.23B	2.60B	2.04B	1.68B	1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	319.66M	764.31M	213.25M	244.96M	315.31M	203.27M
Total Debt	2.98B	1.54B	686.52M	578.53M	638.05M	563.47M
Total Liabilities	4.33B	2.61B	1.35B	1.19B	1.12B	864.09M
Stockholders Equity	2.41B	1.62B	1.25B	844.06M	565.26M	508.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-696.12M	-93.50M	16.30M	204.38M	78.50M	-63.14M
Operating Cash Flow	730.38M	959.03M	712.03M	689.77M	401.39M	93.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.30B	-1.05B	-699.31M	-582.71M	-295.46M	-156.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.63B	641.21M	19.56M	-143.20M	6.53M	30.89M

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 46.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.82, above the 50-day MA of 45.66, and above the 200-day MA of 44.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VIST.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	77 Outperform	$3.74B	10.38	11.06%	3.51%	33.85%	-34.08%
VIST	76 Outperform	$4.42B	6.45	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
CIVI	74 Outperform	$2.29B	3.89	9.56%	7.02%	-6.52%	-32.26%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.09B	2.89	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CNX	70 Outperform	$5.06B	26.78	6.98%	―	43.30%	-43.07%
MUR	68 Neutral	$4.46B	31.83	2.76%	4.16%	-13.92%	-68.34%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Corporate Events

Vista Energy Completes $400 Million Note Issuance

On December 3, 2025, Vista Energy announced the successful pricing of $400 million in senior notes due 2033, issued by its subsidiary Vista Energy Argentina S.A.U. The notes, governed by New York law, are part of a larger $900 million issuance and carry an interest rate of 8.500%. This financial move is part of Vista’s strategy to strengthen its capital structure and support its operations in the competitive energy market.

Vista Oil & Gas Unveils Growth Plans at Investor Day

On November 12, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV held an Investor Day presentation, highlighting the next phase of growth driven by the Vaca Muerta shale formation. The company discussed its strategic plans and projections, emphasizing the potential impact on its operations and market positioning. The presentation included forward-looking statements about future performance, reflecting Vista’s expectations and forecasts, although these are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Vista Energy Releases Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

On October 23, 2025, Vista Energy released its third-quarter earnings webcast presentation, highlighting its financial performance and strategic developments. The company emphasized its ongoing commitment to transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, although some figures remain unaudited. The announcement underscores Vista’s strategic planning efforts and investor relations activities, reflecting its proactive approach to addressing market challenges and opportunities in the energy sector.

Vista Oil & Gas Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Increased Production and Revenue

On October 22, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas reported its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing a substantial increase in production and revenues. The company achieved a 74% year-over-year increase in total production, reaching 126,752 boe/d, and a 53% rise in total revenues compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by higher oil production and improved operational efficiencies, including the elimination of trucking costs due to the new Oldelval Duplicar pipeline. Despite a decrease in realized crude oil and natural gas prices, Vista’s strategic investments in drilling and development projects, particularly in the Vaca Muerta region, bolstered its adjusted EBITDA by 52% year-over-year. However, the company recorded a negative free cash flow of $28.8 million due to significant capital expenditures and tax payments.

Vista Oil & Gas Reports Strong Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

On October 22, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV released its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025. The financial results indicate a significant increase in revenue from contracts with customers, reaching $1,755,133,000 compared to $1,176,450,000 in the same period in 2024. This growth in revenue reflects positively on the company’s operational performance and market positioning, suggesting an upward trajectory in its financial health and potential benefits for stakeholders.

Vista Energy to Release Q3 2025 Financial Results

On September 15, 2025, Vista Energy announced it will release its consolidated financial statements for the third quarter of 2025 on October 22, 2025, after the market closes. The company will present these results via a webcast on October 23, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.