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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Sponsored ADR (VIST)
NYSE:VIST
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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(14.01%Upside)
Positive Factors
Operational Performance
Vista's 3Q24 results confirmed its solid operational performance and acceleration of its Vaca Muerta shale oil push.
Production Growth
Vista 4Q24 production averaged 85.3kboed, which represents an increase of 17% QoQ and +51% YoY, driven by the tie-in of 25 wells between mid-August and early December.
Strategic Plan
Vista's updated strategic plan balances capital discipline with further acceleration in the development of its Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow
In analyst calculations, free cash flow to equity in the period was zero, composed of cash flow from operations, capex, financial expenses, and leasing payments.
Oil Prices and Expenses
The sequential drop can be largely explained by two main factors: lower oil realized prices at US$67.1/bbl and higher selling expenses due to a temporary increase in transportation of crude oil as they increased the volume sold via trucking.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.60B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)703.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth54.19%
EPS Growth37.69%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength51
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume723,759
30 Day Avg. Volume703,098
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio6.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$70.00Price Target Upside45.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company primarily operates in lucrative regions like the Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina, where it extracts hydrocarbons and sells them to refineries, distributors, and other end-users. Revenue is driven by the volume of oil and gas produced and the prevailing market prices for these commodities. Vista Oil & Gas also enters into strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, which can contribute to increased production and revenue. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks, influencing its overall financial performance.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights Vista's strategic acquisition and robust production growth, indicating strong operational and financial performance. However, challenges such as a negative free cash flow and leverage concerns due to the acquisition indicate areas of financial strain. The overall sentiment reflects a balanced view between these positive and negative aspects.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Acquisition of Petronas Argentina
Vista acquired 50% of La Amarga Chica, a high return asset, enhancing production and EBITDA generation. The acquisition includes 46,000 acres in Vaca Muerta and a significant inventory of 200 wells.
Substantial Production Growth
Production in Q1 2025 was 80,900 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year. Oil production reached 69,600 barrels per day, also up 47% year-over-year.
Revenue and EBITDA Increase
Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $438 million, 38% higher than Q1 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $275 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase.
Cost Efficiency and Pipeline Expansion
Lifting costs remained controlled at $4.7 per BOE despite cost inflation. The inauguration of the Oldelval Duplicar pipeline significantly reduced selling expenses by minimizing trucking costs.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Deficit
Free cash flow was negative $243 million in Q1 2025 due to high CapEx and increased working capital needs.
Leverage and Financing Needs
The acquisition led to a net leverage ratio of about 1.5x adjusted EBITDA, requiring additional financing to maintain balance sheet health in a volatile market.
Decline in Realized Oil Prices
The realized oil price averaged $68.6 per barrel, a 2% decrease year-over-year due to lower international prices.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Vista reported significant growth and strategic advancements. The company's production reached 80,900 BOEs per day, marking a 47% increase year-over-year, with oil production also rising by 47% to 69,600 barrels per day. Total revenues for the quarter were $438 million, a 38% increase from the previous year, driven by enhanced oil production. The lifting cost was $4.7 per BOE, an 8% year-over-year increase, while Capital Expenditure amounted to $268 million with 16 wells drilled and 10 completed, alongside $49 million invested in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 25% year-over-year to $275 million, with a net income of $83 million translating to an EPS of $0.9 per share. Despite a reported free cash flow of minus $243 million due to significant growth investments, the net leverage ratio remained robust at 0.84x adjusted EBITDA. The company also announced the acquisition of Petronas Argentina, which is expected to enhance production and EBITDA generation, prompting a reevaluation of their 2025 market guidance, with further updates anticipated in their Q2 earnings call.Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with high profit margins. However, increased leverage and negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures present financial challenges.Income Statement
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase to $1.77 billion from $1.16 billion in 2023. The gross profit margin stands strong at 57.0% for TTM, highlighting efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 35.9% and 65.7%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 27.2% from 28.9% in 2023, suggesting some pressure on net profitability.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company shows a stable financial position with an equity ratio of 36.6% in TTM, reflecting a balanced capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.08, indicating a rise in leverage, which could pose risks if interest rates increase. Return on equity is healthy at 29.3%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital to generate profits.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains strong at $969 million, providing a solid cushion for operations. However, free cash flow has turned negative to -$228 million in TTM due to higher capital expenditures, which could impact liquidity if prolonged. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.01, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.77B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M | 273.94M |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M | 2.43M |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M | 90.23M |
| Net Income | 481.66M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M | -102.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.48B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 740.76M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M | 203.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.78B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M | 563.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.84B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B | 864.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.64B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M | 508.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -228.21M | -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M | -63.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 969.08M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M | 93.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M | -156.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 824.52M | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M | 30.89M |
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Negative
48.24
Price Trends
48.88
Negative
48.07
Positive
49.96
Negative
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
43.01
Neutral
6.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.39, below the 50-day MA of 48.88, and below the 200-day MA of 49.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIST.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $4.60B | 9.62 | 32.69% | ― | 54.19% | 37.69% | |
75 Outperform | $4.07B | 8.28 | 17.86% | 3.39% | 41.68% | 53.13% | |
75 Outperform | $3.27B | 8.80 | 7.54% | 5.67% | -14.90% | -27.53% | |
73 Outperform | $4.42B | 11.38 | 20.85% | 2.62% | 8.78% | 0.56% | |
70 Outperform | $2.76B | 14.26 | 19.93% | 11.49% | -12.71% | -39.85% | |
69 Neutral | $4.89B | 9.01 | -7.30% | ― | 22.23% | -130.65% | |
68 Neutral | $14.81B | 9.70 | 6.36% | 5.32% | 4.12% | -71.24% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
48.24
4.22
9.59%
CNX
CNX Resources
33.79
9.78
40.73%
MUR
Murphy Oil
22.93
-16.39
-41.68%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
13.05
-1.20
-8.42%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
22.94
-1.93
-7.76%
CRC
California Resources Corp
45.67
-5.19
-10.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.