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Vista Oil & Gas (VIST)
:VIST
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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(13.18% Upside)
Positive Factors
Growth Opportunities
Vista has high exposure to Vaca Muerta, which offers appealing growth opportunities.
Operational Performance
Vista's 3Q24 results confirmed its solid operational performance and acceleration of its Vaca Muerta shale oil push.
Production Growth
Vista 4Q24 production averaged 85.3kboed, which represents an increase of 17% QoQ and +51% YoY, driven by the tie-in of 25 wells between mid-August and early December.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Issues
The company experienced unexpectedly strong cash burn, which was weaker than expected.
Earnings Decline
Weak 4Q24 previews with an expected decrease in Adj. EBITDA by 5% YoY and 12% QoQ.
Free Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow to equity was negative, impacted by working capital consumption and tax payments.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)971.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth51.55%
EPS Growth29.12%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength47
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.28
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume1,046,541
30 Day Avg. Volume971,341
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.40Price Target Upside47.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on selling the extracted hydrocarbons to various markets, including domestic and international buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil at prevailing market prices and the sale of natural gas, which can be influenced by contracts and spot market rates. Additionally, Vista may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to share resources and expertise, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing capital expenditures. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating commodity prices, production output, and operational costs.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 10, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -10.21%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth and efficiency improvements, driven by the transformational acquisition of La Amarga Chica. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges were noted as areas of concern. The company's future outlook is optimistic with expected production and EBITDA growth.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Transformational Acquisition
Vista completed the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, significantly increasing the company's scale and production capacity.
Record Production Growth
Total production reached 118,000 boes per day, an 81% increase year-over-year. Oil production was 102,000 barrels per day, up 79% year-over-year.
Revenue Surge
Total revenues for the quarter were $611 million, a 54% increase from the same quarter last year.
Export Growth
Oil exports tripled year-over-year to 5.6 million barrels for the quarter.
Cost Efficiency Improvements
Drilling and completion costs reduced to $12.8 million per well, a 10% saving per well.
Lower Selling Expenses
Selling expenses per boe decreased by 41% quarter-over-quarter, leading to $28 million in savings.
Strong Future Outlook
Adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 is between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, with significant production growth expected.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Outflow
The quarter saw a free cash flow outflow of $1.4 billion, largely due to the upfront cash payment for the Petronas Argentina acquisition.
High Net Leverage Ratio
Net leverage ratio at the quarter end stood at 1.38x on a pro forma basis, reflecting new debt raised for the acquisition.
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil price was $62.2 per barrel, down 13% on an interannual basis, affected by lower international prices.
Negative Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Cash flow from operating activities was minus $9 million, impacted by a $215 million income tax payment and a $59 million increase in working capital.
Company Guidance
During Vista's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the guidance outlined projected production and financial metrics reflecting the company's recent acquisition and operational strategies. Vista forecasted total production between 112,000 and 114,000 boes per day for 2025, with expectations to reach 125,000 to 128,000 boes per day in the second half. The adjusted EBITDA was projected between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion for the year, assuming a $65 Brent price. Capital expenditure was set at $1.2 billion, reflecting new drilling and completion costs and $60 million in facility savings. The company anticipated a neutral free cash flow in the second half of 2025, emphasizing capital discipline amidst volatile oil prices. Additionally, Vista planned to connect 59 new wells in 2025, with 34 already connected in the first half of the year. Overall, the guidance suggested a robust growth outlook with an emphasis on cost efficiency and strategic investments.Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vista Oil & Gas exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability, with a notable increase in net profit margin and EBITDA margin. However, the balance sheet shows increasing debt levels, and cash flow analysis reveals negative free cash flow, suggesting challenges in managing capital expenditures.Income Statement
Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The TTM revenue increased significantly by 20.3% compared to the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin for the TTM is impressive at 54.75%, reflecting efficient cost management and operational effectiveness. The net profit margin also improved to 29.11%, alongside a solid EBITDA margin of 70.69%, showcasing strong profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 35.04%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is strong at 27.18%, reflecting effective utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the increase in total debt warrants monitoring to ensure it remains sustainable.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance presents mixed results. While operating cash flow is positive and strong at $681 million, the free cash flow is negative, driven by high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating solid cash generation relative to earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate highlights potential challenges in managing capital investments effectively.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M | 273.94M |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M | 2.43M |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M | 90.23M |
| Net Income | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M | -102.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M | 203.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M | 563.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B | 864.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M | 508.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M | -63.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M | 93.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M | -156.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M | 30.89M |
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Negative
42.41
Price Trends
47.50
Negative
46.75
Negative
49.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Negative
39.35
Neutral
50.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.41, below the 50-day MA of 47.50, and below the 200-day MA of 49.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIST.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $4.49B | 12.25 | 19.24% | 2.48% | 2.67% | -5.79% | |
77 Outperform | $3.98B | 6.49 | 24.36% | 3.26% | 58.35% | 210.80% | |
76 Outperform | $3.32B | 12.08 | 5.42% | 5.37% | -18.08% | -49.36% | |
72 Outperform | $4.07B | 7.24 | 32.89% | ― | 51.55% | 29.12% | |
70 Outperform | $2.58B | 10.56 | 24.31% | 11.67% | -8.06% | -22.61% | |
67 Neutral | $4.11B | 49.10 | 3.73% | ― | 38.21% | -67.24% | |
66 Neutral | $14.89B | 8.87 | 6.31% | 5.50% | 3.48% | -73.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
42.41
-6.35
-13.02%
CNX
CNX Resources
29.03
2.51
9.46%
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.27
-12.66
-35.24%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
12.20
-0.74
-5.72%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
23.51
-0.83
-3.41%
CRC
California Resources Corp
47.55
1.28
2.77%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.