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Vista Oil & Gas (VIST)
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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

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VIST

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(53.58% Upside)
Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong financial performance and valuation, supported by significant production and revenue growth. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges are notable risks. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but potential for a pullback exists. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook, despite some concerns about cash flow and oil prices.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective operational strategies, enhancing long-term financial health.
Production Efficiency
Lower lifting costs reflect improved operational efficiency, which can sustain margins and profitability over the long term.
Operational Expansion
Increasing well activity supports future production growth, bolstering the company's market position and revenue potential.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative free cash flow suggests difficulties in covering operational expenses and investments, which could hinder long-term growth.
Decline in Realized Oil Prices
Declining oil prices can reduce revenue and profit margins, challenging the company's ability to maintain financial performance.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) is a publicly traded oil and gas exploration and production company based in Mexico. The company focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas assets, with an emphasis on onshore fields in the Latin American region. Vista aims to leverage technology and operational efficiencies to enhance production capabilities and optimize resource extraction, thereby positioning itself as a significant player in the energy sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on selling the extracted hydrocarbons to various markets, including domestic and international buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil at prevailing market prices and the sale of natural gas, which can be influenced by contracts and spot market rates. Additionally, Vista may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to share resources and expertise, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing capital expenditures. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating commodity prices, production output, and operational costs.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights a strong operational and financial performance with significant production and revenue growth. However, concerns about free cash flow and declining realized oil prices slightly tempered the overall positive achievements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 127,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Oil production was 110,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 73% and 7% sequentially.
Strong Financial Performance
Total revenues during the quarter were $706 million, 53% above the same quarter of last year and 16% above the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an interannual increase of 52% and a sequential increase of 70%.
Successful Well Tie-Ins
Connected 24 wells during Q3, contributing to the production growth, with plans to accelerate new well activity in Q4 with 12 to 16 tie-ins.
Robust Export Activity
Oil exports increased 84% year-over-year to 6.3 million barrels for the quarter. 100% of oil volumes were sold at export parity prices.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow in this quarter was almost neutral at minus $29 million, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and a decrease in working capital.
Decline in Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil prices were $64.6 per barrel on average, down 5% on an interannual basis, even though they were up 4% on a sequential basis.
Company Guidance
During Vista's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial performance, showcasing a strong quarter with several key metrics highlighted. Total production reached 127,000 BOEs per day, marking a 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter increase. Oil production alone was 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 73% rise from the previous year and 7% from the prior quarter. Total revenues surged to $706 million, up 53% from the previous year. The company reported a lifting cost of $4.4 per BOE, a 6% year-over-year reduction, and capital expenditures amounted to $351 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an increase of 52% year-over-year and 70% sequentially. Adjusted net income was $155 million, while net income totaled $315 million, reflecting a $288 million gain from the Petronas Argentina acquisition. Earnings per share stood at $3, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.5. The company maintained a net leverage ratio of 1.5x adjusted EBITDA and planned to accelerate new well activity in Q4, with production expected to be around 130,000 BOEs per day. This positions Vista to potentially exceed production guidance for the year.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations. The balance sheet is well-structured, but increasing debt levels should be monitored. While operating cash flow is robust, negative free cash flow indicates a need to optimize capital expenditures.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The TTM revenue increased significantly by 20.3% compared to the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin for the TTM is impressive at 54.75%, reflecting efficient cost management and operational effectiveness. The net profit margin also improved to 29.11%, alongside a solid EBITDA margin of 70.69%, showcasing strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 35.04%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is strong at 27.18%, reflecting effective utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the increase in total debt warrants monitoring to ensure it remains sustainable.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow performance presents mixed results. While operating cash flow is positive and strong at $681 million, the free cash flow is negative, driven by high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating solid cash generation relative to earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate highlights potential challenges in managing capital investments effectively.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.23B1.65B1.17B1.14B652.19M273.94M
Gross Profit1.07B1.26B591.25M630.24M266.61M-1.26M
EBITDA1.68B1.10B851.24M706.13M403.56M90.23M
Net Income727.14M477.52M396.95M269.54M50.65M-102.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.74B4.23B2.60B2.04B1.68B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments319.66M764.31M213.25M244.96M315.31M203.27M
Total Debt2.98B1.54B686.52M578.53M638.05M563.47M
Total Liabilities4.33B2.61B1.35B1.19B1.12B864.09M
Stockholders Equity2.41B1.62B1.25B844.06M565.26M508.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-694.83M-93.50M16.30M204.38M78.50M-63.14M
Operating Cash Flow730.38M959.03M712.03M689.77M401.39M93.78M
Investing Cash Flow-2.30B-1.05B-699.31M-582.71M-295.46M-156.10M
Financing Cash Flow1.63B641.21M19.56M-143.20M6.53M30.89M

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price35.16
Price Trends
50DMA
38.74
Positive
100DMA
41.73
Positive
200DMA
45.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.26
Negative
RSI
70.47
Negative
STOCH
52.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.38, below the 50-day MA of 38.74, and below the 200-day MA of 45.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.47 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIST.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$4.65B6.8337.10%50.79%32.97%
72
Outperform
$2.04B2.8216.58%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
72
Outperform
$3.87B10.7611.06%3.32%33.85%-34.08%
69
Neutral
$4.59B23.956.98%43.30%-43.07%
68
Neutral
$2.20B3.2711.31%7.59%0.24%-9.19%
66
Neutral
$3.83B13.912.76%4.56%-13.92%-68.34%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
48.10
0.47
0.99%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
26.35
-24.20
-47.87%
CNX
CNX Resources
34.29
-3.87
-10.14%
MUR
Murphy Oil
28.43
-3.55
-11.10%
SM
SM Energy
18.28
-23.78
-56.54%
CRC
California Resources Corp
46.17
-8.92
-16.19%

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Corporate Events

Vista Energy Releases Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Vista Energy released its third-quarter earnings webcast presentation, highlighting its financial performance and strategic developments. The company emphasized its ongoing commitment to transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, although some figures remain unaudited. The announcement underscores Vista’s strategic planning efforts and investor relations activities, reflecting its proactive approach to addressing market challenges and opportunities in the energy sector.

Vista Oil & Gas Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Increased Production and Revenue
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas reported its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing a substantial increase in production and revenues. The company achieved a 74% year-over-year increase in total production, reaching 126,752 boe/d, and a 53% rise in total revenues compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by higher oil production and improved operational efficiencies, including the elimination of trucking costs due to the new Oldelval Duplicar pipeline. Despite a decrease in realized crude oil and natural gas prices, Vista’s strategic investments in drilling and development projects, particularly in the Vaca Muerta region, bolstered its adjusted EBITDA by 52% year-over-year. However, the company recorded a negative free cash flow of $28.8 million due to significant capital expenditures and tax payments.

Vista Oil & Gas Reports Strong Revenue Growth in Q3 2025
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV released its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025. The financial results indicate a significant increase in revenue from contracts with customers, reaching $1,755,133,000 compared to $1,176,450,000 in the same period in 2024. This growth in revenue reflects positively on the company’s operational performance and market positioning, suggesting an upward trajectory in its financial health and potential benefits for stakeholders.

Vista Energy to Release Q3 2025 Financial Results
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, Vista Energy announced it will release its consolidated financial statements for the third quarter of 2025 on October 22, 2025, after the market closes. The company will present these results via a webcast on October 23, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase on August 27, 2025
Aug 28, 2025

On August 27, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 2,000 Series A shares at a price of 729.61 Mexican Pesos per share, following approval from a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 1,459,220 Mexican Pesos and adjusted the company’s outstanding and treasury shares, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase Program
Aug 27, 2025

On August 26, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 75,000 Series A shares at a price of 729.08 Mexican Pesos per share, following an approval from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 54.68 million Mexican Pesos and left 104,258,410 Series A shares outstanding, with 1,820,123 shares held in Treasury, reflecting the company’s strategic financial management.

Vista Energy Completes Strategic Share Repurchase
Aug 26, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 729.85 Mexican Pesos per share, following approval from a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This repurchase, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 72,985,170 Mexican Pesos, excluding fees and taxes. The transaction reduced the number of outstanding Series A shares to 104,333,410, with 1,745,123 shares held in treasury, reflecting Vista’s strategic financial management and potential impact on shareholder value.

Vista Energy Executes Share Repurchase to Bolster Market Position
Aug 25, 2025

On August 22, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 754.73 Mexican Pesos per share, following approval from a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 75.47 million Mexican Pesos and left 104,433,410 Series A shares outstanding, with 1,645,123 shares held in Treasury. This strategic move is likely aimed at strengthening the company’s market position and optimizing its capital structure.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase Program
Aug 22, 2025

On August 21, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 756.18 Mexican Pesos per share, following the approval from the shareholders’ meeting on April 9, 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 75.6 million Mexican Pesos, excluding fees and taxes, and left 104,533,410 Series A shares outstanding.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase Program in August 2025
Aug 21, 2025

On August 20, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 757.48 Mexican Pesos per share, as part of a previously approved plan from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This repurchase, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 75.7 million Mexican Pesos and left 104,633,410 Series A shares outstanding, with 1,445,123 shares held in Treasury.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase on August 19, 2025
Aug 20, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 125,000 Series A shares at a price of Mexican Pesos $766.77 per share, following the approval from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, amounted to approximately Mexican Pesos $95,846,013, excluding fees and taxes, and resulted in 104,733,410 Series A shares outstanding, with 1,345,123 shares held in Treasury.

Vista Energy Executes Share Repurchase Plan
Aug 19, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 783.15 Mexican Pesos per share, as part of a plan approved at a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, resulted in a total expenditure of approximately 78.31 million Mexican Pesos and left 104,858,410 Series A shares outstanding, with 1,220,123 shares held in treasury.

Vista Energy Completes Strategic Share Repurchase
Aug 18, 2025

On August 15, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 80,545 Series A shares at a price of 776.25 Mexican Pesos per share, following the approval from a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025. This transaction, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., reflects Vista’s strategic financial management, leaving 104,958,410 Series A shares outstanding and 1,120,123 shares held in Treasury. This move could potentially strengthen Vista’s market position and shareholder value.

Vista Energy Executes Share Repurchase Program in August 2025
Aug 15, 2025

On August 14, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 780.42 Mexican Pesos per share, totaling approximately 78,042,000 Mexican Pesos. This move, executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, was in line with the approval from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025, and it reflects the company’s strategic financial management, potentially enhancing shareholder value.

Vista Energy Executes Strategic Share Repurchase
Aug 14, 2025

On August 13, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 799.51 Mexican Pesos per share, totaling approximately 79,951,450 Mexican Pesos. This move follows the approval from a shareholders’ meeting in April 2025 and reflects the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its stock liquidity and shareholder value. The repurchase was executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., Grupo Financiero Citi México.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase Program
Aug 13, 2025

On August 12, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 100,000 Series A shares at a price of 805.42 Mexican Pesos per share, totaling approximately 80.54 million Mexican Pesos. This move follows the approval from the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025 and was executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa. The repurchase impacts the company’s share structure, leaving 105,238,955 Series A shares outstanding and 839,578 shares held in Treasury.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase Program in August 2025
Aug 12, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 55,826 Series A shares at a price of 791.16 Mexican Pesos per share, totaling approximately 44.17 million Mexican Pesos. This action was part of a plan approved at the shareholders’ meeting in April 2025, and was executed through Citi México Casa de Bolsa. The repurchase reduced the number of outstanding Series A shares to 105,338,955, with 739,578 shares held in treasury.

Vista Energy Completes Share Repurchase in August 2025
Aug 11, 2025

On August 8, 2025, Vista Energy repurchased 75,000 Series A shares at a price of 792.87 Mexican Pesos per share, totaling approximately 59.5 million Mexican Pesos. This repurchase was part of a plan approved in April 2025 and was executed by Citi México Casa de Bolsa. Following this transaction, Vista Energy has 105,394,781 Series A shares outstanding, with 683,752 held in treasury. This move reflects the company’s strategic financial management and could impact its share value and investor relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025