Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST)
NYSE:VIST
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Vista Energy SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
▲(5.81% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/28/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial quality and risk factors—negative free cash flow, weaker cash conversion, and higher leverage—despite strong profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, and valuation looks attractive on a low P/E, but momentum indicators are stretched, tempering the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Material Reserve Build
A 57% increase to 588.1 MMboe materially extends Vista’s production visibility and underpins longer-term hydrocarbon cash flows. A ~14-year P1 reserve life improves planning optionality, supports multi-year drilling inventory and reduces near-term reserve replacement risk.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage tripling since 2023 reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to commodity-driven cash flow swings. Higher debt magnifies refinancing and interest-rate exposure and constrains capital allocation if operating cash weakens or planned asset synergies take longer to realize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material Reserve Build
A 57% increase to 588.1 MMboe materially extends Vista’s production visibility and underpins longer-term hydrocarbon cash flows. A ~14-year P1 reserve life improves planning optionality, supports multi-year drilling inventory and reduces near-term reserve replacement risk.
Read all positive factors
Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth50.79%
EPS Growth32.97%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.80
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume2,389,565
30 Day Avg. Volume1,909,484
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)1.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio-6.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.25Price Target Upside7.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)6.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.36B
Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing ...
How the Company Makes Money
Vista Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons. Its main revenue stream is the sale of crude oil produced from its operated fields (largely unconventional shale wells), with additional revenue from sales of natural gas an...
Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights a strong operational and financial performance with significant production and revenue growth. However, concerns about free cash flow and declining realized oil prices slightly tempered the overall positive achievements.Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 127,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Oil production was 110,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 73% and 7% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow in this quarter was almost neutral at minus $29 million, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and a decrease in working capital.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 127,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Oil production was 110,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 73% and 7% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Vista's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial performance, showcasing a strong quarter with several key metrics highlighted. Total production reached 127,000 BOEs per day, marking a 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter increase. Oil production alone was 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 73% rise from the previous year and 7% from the prior quarter. Total revenues surged to $706 million, up 53% from the previous year. The company reported a lifting cost of $4.4 per BOE, a 6% year-over-year reduction, and capital expenditures amounted to $351 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an increase of 52% year-over-year and 70% sequentially. Adjusted net income was $155 million, while net income totaled $315 million, reflecting a $288 million gain from the Petronas Argentina acquisition. Earnings per share stood at $3, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.5. The company maintained a net leverage ratio of 1.5x adjusted EBITDA and planned to accelerate new well activity in Q4, with production expected to be around 130,000 BOEs per day. This positions Vista to potentially exceed production guidance for the year.Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.48B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M |
| Gross Profit | 1.18B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M |
| Net Income | 721.38M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.11B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 538.41M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M |
| Total Debt | 3.30B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.60B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.51B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -821.62M | -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 638.48M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.37B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.50B | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M |
Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Positive
76.55
Price Trends
60.19
Positive
54.39
Positive
48.14
Positive
Market Momentum
4.44
Negative
73.44
Negative
81.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.60, above the 50-day MA of 60.19, and above the 200-day MA of 48.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIST.
Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.10B | 10.72 | 10.34% | 3.56% | 33.85% | -34.08% | |
74 Outperform | $7.66B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 34.93% | -11.85% | |
68 Neutral | $7.30B | 6.91 | 37.31% | ― | 50.79% | 32.97% | |
66 Neutral | $5.69B | 6.35 | 15.52% | ― | 43.30% | -43.07% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $5.97B | 42.92 | 2.03% | 4.15% | -13.92% | -68.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
76.55
28.81
60.35%
CNX
CNX Resources
39.98
8.12
25.49%
MUR
Murphy Oil
41.80
14.45
52.84%
SM
SM Energy
32.13
3.67
12.88%
CRC
California Resources Corp
68.89
25.01
56.99%
Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events
Vista Energy Sets Late-April Date to Release First-Quarter 2026 Results
Mar 18, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., the Mexico City-based energy producer listed in New York and Mexico, said it will disclose its consolidated financial statements for the first quarter of 2026 on April 29, 2026, after the market close. The company add...
Vista Energy Calls April 28, 2026 Shareholder Meeting to Ratify Capital Changes and Renew Buyback Authorization
Mar 17, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has called its annual ordinary general shareholders’ meeting for April 28, 2026, in Mexico City to address a wide range of corporate governance and capital matters. The agenda includes ratifying a reduction in th...
Vista Energy Files Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Webcast Materials
Feb 26, 2026
Vista Energy furnished a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2026, dated February 26, 2026, providing investors with its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings webcast presentation. The filing underscores that s...
Vista Energy Files Unaudited 2025 Year-End Interim Financials With U.S. SEC
Feb 25, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., a Mexico City-based upstream oil and gas producer focused on Latin American markets, has filed a Form 6-K as a foreign issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for February 2026. The filing reflects the...
Vista Energy Posts Strong 2025 Growth on Vaca Muerta Expansion and La Amarga Chica Deal
Feb 25, 2026
Vista Energy reported on February 25, 2026, that fourth‑quarter 2025 production rose to 135,414 boe/d, up 7% sequentially and 59% year‑on‑year, driven largely by the April 2025 acquisition of a 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica bl...
Vista Energy Clears Key Hurdle in Vaca Muerta Asset Acquisition
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Vista Energy reported a key milestone in its planned acquisition of Equinor’s interests in the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. Shell Argentina waived its right of first refusal over a 30% working interest in the Ba...
Vista Energy Boosts Proved Reserves 57% on Vaca Muerta Growth and Acquisitions
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Vista Energy reported certified proved (P1) oil and gas reserves of 588.1 million barrels of oil equivalent as of December 31, 2025, a 57% increase year-on-year. The expansion was driven by 255.1 MMboe in total additions, inc...
Vista Energy to Acquire Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Stakes in US$712 Million Deal
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy announced a series of agreements to acquire Equinor’s interests in two core Vaca Muerta blocks, securing a 25.1% non-operating working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35.0% non-operating working interest in ...
Vista Energy Unveils Corporate Reorganization to Reshape Argentine Upstream Interests
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced a corporate restructuring centered on expanding and reshaping its interests in key Argentine oil and gas blocks through a multi-step transaction with Equinor and YPF. Vista and its Argent...
Vista Energy Shareholders Approve New Mandate for Major Unconventional Hydrocarbon Acquisitions
Jan 27, 2026
At an ordinary general shareholders’ meeting held in Mexico City on January 27, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. obtained shareholder approval to pursue one or more significant acquisitions of exploration and exploitation rights, interests...
Vista Energy Sets Late-February 2026 Date to Release 2025 Annual and Q4 Results
Jan 14, 2026
Vista Energy announced on January 14, 2026, that it plans to release its consolidated financial statements for full-year 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025 after markets close on February 25, 2026. The company will follow the release with a webca...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.