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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST)
NYSE:VIST

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

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VIST

Vista Energy SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(19.63% Upside)
Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong financial performance and valuation, supported by significant production and revenue growth. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges are notable risks. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but potential for a pullback exists. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook, despite some concerns about cash flow and oil prices.
Positive Factors
Material Production Growth
Sustained, large production growth materially increases scale and operating leverage across Vista's asset base. Higher volumes improve unit economics, support stronger contract negotiating power, and provide a platform for further tie-ins and export-led cash generation over the next several quarters.
High Profitability and Margins
Very strong EBITDA and net margins reflect efficient operations and high-value crude sales, indicating resilient cash generation potential per barrel. Durable margin structure supports reinvestment capacity and resilience to cost variability, underpinning long-term returns if commodity realizations hold.
Transformational Vaca Muerta Acquisition
The deal materially scales Vista’s unconventional footprint and reserves in Vaca Muerta, adding drilling inventory and adjacency synergies with existing blocks. This structural move enhances reserve life, potential free cash flow, and optionality for future tie-ins and midstream integration over multiple years.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Significant leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining capital flexibility for drilling programs or opportunistic M&A. In a commodity downturn, debt burdens may force asset sales or equity issuance, limiting the company's ability to sustain growth or withstand prolonged price weakness.
Weak Free Cash Flow Generation
Negative FCF despite profitability signals that earnings are not converting into durable cash, likely due to capex intensity and working capital dynamics. Persistent weak cash conversion can force higher leverage, limit dividend or buyback capacity, and constrain funding for organic growth or acquisitions.
Realized Oil Price Decline
Lower realized prices directly reduce revenue and cash flow per barrel and can persistently pressure margins given Vista's commodity-exposed business model. Combined with high leverage and capex needs, sustained price declines would impair cash generation and slow planned expansion or deleveraging efforts.

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is built on the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources, where it earns income from selling extracted hydrocarbons at market prices. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with refineries and distributors, spot market sales, and participation in production-sharing contracts with government entities. Additionally, Vista may benefit from strategic partnerships with other energy companies and financial institutions, allowing for shared investments in exploration projects and technology advancements, which can enhance its production capabilities and profitability.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights a strong operational and financial performance with significant production and revenue growth. However, concerns about free cash flow and declining realized oil prices slightly tempered the overall positive achievements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 127,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Oil production was 110,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 73% and 7% sequentially.
Strong Financial Performance
Total revenues during the quarter were $706 million, 53% above the same quarter of last year and 16% above the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an interannual increase of 52% and a sequential increase of 70%.
Successful Well Tie-Ins
Connected 24 wells during Q3, contributing to the production growth, with plans to accelerate new well activity in Q4 with 12 to 16 tie-ins.
Robust Export Activity
Oil exports increased 84% year-over-year to 6.3 million barrels for the quarter. 100% of oil volumes were sold at export parity prices.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow in this quarter was almost neutral at minus $29 million, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and a decrease in working capital.
Decline in Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil prices were $64.6 per barrel on average, down 5% on an interannual basis, even though they were up 4% on a sequential basis.
Company Guidance
During Vista's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial performance, showcasing a strong quarter with several key metrics highlighted. Total production reached 127,000 BOEs per day, marking a 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter increase. Oil production alone was 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 73% rise from the previous year and 7% from the prior quarter. Total revenues surged to $706 million, up 53% from the previous year. The company reported a lifting cost of $4.4 per BOE, a 6% year-over-year reduction, and capital expenditures amounted to $351 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an increase of 52% year-over-year and 70% sequentially. Adjusted net income was $155 million, while net income totaled $315 million, reflecting a $288 million gain from the Petronas Argentina acquisition. Earnings per share stood at $3, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.5. The company maintained a net leverage ratio of 1.5x adjusted EBITDA and planned to accelerate new well activity in Q4, with production expected to be around 130,000 BOEs per day. This positions Vista to potentially exceed production guidance for the year.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and profitability with efficient equity utilization. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges pose potential risks. Improving cash flow management and reducing debt levels are crucial for financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Vista Oil & Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.29% increase in the TTM period. The company maintains robust profitability metrics, with a net profit margin of 29.12% and an impressive EBITDA margin of 70.66%. However, the gross profit margin has declined from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the company achieves a strong return on equity of 33.43%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 35.72%, suggesting a balanced capital structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow growth and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -1.08, indicating cash flow issues relative to profitability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.44 suggests moderate cash generation efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.23B1.65B1.17B1.14B652.19M273.94M
Gross Profit1.07B1.26B591.25M630.24M266.61M2.43M
EBITDA1.77B1.10B851.24M706.13M403.56M87.19M
Net Income727.14M477.52M396.95M269.54M50.65M-102.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.74B4.23B2.60B2.04B1.68B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments319.66M764.31M213.25M244.96M315.31M203.27M
Total Debt2.98B1.54B686.52M578.53M638.05M563.47M
Total Liabilities4.33B2.61B1.35B1.19B1.12B864.09M
Stockholders Equity2.41B1.62B1.25B844.06M565.26M508.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-696.12M-93.50M16.30M204.38M78.50M-63.14M
Operating Cash Flow730.38M959.03M712.03M689.77M401.39M93.78M
Investing Cash Flow-2.30B-1.05B-699.31M-582.71M-295.46M-156.10M
Financing Cash Flow1.63B641.21M19.56M-143.20M6.53M30.89M

Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price56.84
Price Trends
50DMA
50.22
Positive
100DMA
45.54
Positive
200DMA
45.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.83
Negative
RSI
61.42
Neutral
STOCH
57.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.58, above the 50-day MA of 50.22, and above the 200-day MA of 45.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIST.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$5.41B7.9937.10%50.79%32.97%
72
Outperform
$2.34B3.989.56%7.36%-6.52%-32.26%
72
Outperform
$4.77B3.0116.58%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
71
Outperform
$4.99B12.6111.06%3.56%33.85%-34.08%
66
Neutral
$5.24B10.5615.01%43.30%-43.07%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$4.52B42.502.01%4.15%-13.92%-68.34%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
54.14
1.50
2.85%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
27.38
-17.55
-39.06%
CNX
CNX Resources
38.90
9.64
32.95%
MUR
Murphy Oil
31.70
5.94
23.06%
SM
SM Energy
20.04
-16.00
-44.40%
CRC
California Resources Corp
53.88
8.55
18.86%

Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events

Vista Energy to Acquire Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Stakes in US$712 Million Deal
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy announced a series of agreements to acquire Equinor’s interests in two core Vaca Muerta blocks, securing a 25.1% non-operating working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35.0% non-operating working interest in Bajo del Toro, alongside related midstream arrangements. The structure includes buying Equinor’s Argentine entities and assets and then selling portions to YPF in back-to-back transactions, leaving Vista with net consideration at closing of about US$712 million, paid through a mix of cash and American Depositary Shares, plus a capped, Brent-linked contingent payment schedule. The deal will be funded with available cash and a new bank credit facility of up to US$600 million and remains subject to rights-of-first-refusal waivers from partners and Chilean antitrust approval for planned crude exports, with closing expected in the second quarter of 2026. Vista highlights the transaction as highly accretive on valuation metrics and transformational for its scale in Vaca Muerta, adding nearly 27,733 net acres, significant drilling inventory and reserves, and contributing roughly 21,869 boe/d of production by the third quarter of 2025, which would lift its pro forma output and proved reserves while supporting free cash flow targets and creating operating synergies with adjacent blocks it already operates with YPF.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Unveils Corporate Reorganization to Reshape Argentine Upstream Interests
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced a corporate restructuring centered on expanding and reshaping its interests in key Argentine oil and gas blocks through a multi-step transaction with Equinor and YPF. Vista and its Argentine subsidiary agreed to acquire 100% of Equinor Argentina S.A.U., which holds a 30% working interest in the Bandurria Sur block, and 50% of the non-operating working interest in the Bajo del Toro Norte block, before subsequently assigning 16.3% of Equinor Argentina S.A.U. (equivalent to a 4.9% working interest in Bandurria Sur) and a 15.0% working interest in Bajo del Toro to YPF. The company emphasized that the transaction will not change the characteristics of its listed shares or the rights of existing shareholders, underscoring that the reorganization is aimed at repositioning its asset base in Argentina without altering its capital structure or investor protections.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Shareholders Approve New Mandate for Major Unconventional Hydrocarbon Acquisitions
Jan 27, 2026

At an ordinary general shareholders’ meeting held in Mexico City on January 27, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. obtained shareholder approval to pursue one or more significant acquisitions of exploration and exploitation rights, interests in concessions, licenses and other assets related to unconventional hydrocarbon reserves in its operating basins. The authorization covers potential deals whose combined value may exceed 20% but not more than 50% of the company’s consolidated assets over a 12‑month period and delegates broad authority to the board of directors to set final terms and execute all necessary legal and commercial actions. These resolutions, which replace similar approvals granted at a March 3, 2025 shareholders’ meeting while preserving the validity of prior actions, signal an intention to accelerate growth in unconventional hydrocarbons and give management expanded flexibility to structure and finance sizable transactions that could materially reshape Vista Energy’s asset base and operational scale.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Sets Late-February 2026 Date to Release 2025 Annual and Q4 Results
Jan 14, 2026

Vista Energy announced on January 14, 2026, that it plans to release its consolidated financial statements for full-year 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025 after markets close on February 25, 2026. The company will follow the release with a webcast presentation of the results on February 26, 2026, providing investors and analysts with an opportunity to review its latest financial and operational performance and reinforcing its emphasis on transparency and active engagement with the capital markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Calls Shareholders’ Meeting for Strategic Acquisitions
Dec 16, 2025

Vista Energy has announced a call for an Ordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for January 27, 2026. The agenda includes proposals for potential acquisitions of unconventional hydrocarbon assets, which could significantly impact the company’s asset value and operations. The meeting will also discuss financing options for these acquisitions and potential capital stock increases. These strategic moves aim to enhance Vista’s position in the energy market, potentially affecting stakeholders by altering the company’s financial and operational landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Completes $400 Million Note Issuance
Dec 3, 2025

On December 3, 2025, Vista Energy announced the successful pricing of $400 million in senior notes due 2033, issued by its subsidiary Vista Energy Argentina S.A.U. The notes, governed by New York law, are part of a larger $900 million issuance and carry an interest rate of 8.500%. This financial move is part of Vista’s strategy to strengthen its capital structure and support its operations in the competitive energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Oil & Gas Unveils Growth Plans at Investor Day
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV held an Investor Day presentation, highlighting the next phase of growth driven by the Vaca Muerta shale formation. The company discussed its strategic plans and projections, emphasizing the potential impact on its operations and market positioning. The presentation included forward-looking statements about future performance, reflecting Vista’s expectations and forecasts, although these are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025