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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Sponsored ADR (VIST)
NYSE:VIST
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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(10.59% Upside)
Vista Oil & Gas shows strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. The stock is undervalued, offering potential upside. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the earnings call highlighted challenges such as negative free cash flow and increased leverage.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant increase in revenue demonstrates strong market demand and effective expansion strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Production Capacity
The substantial rise in production capacity positions Vista as a leading player in the industry, ensuring sustained growth and competitive advantage.
Cost Efficiency
Improved cost efficiency through reduced selling expenses enhances profit margins and supports long-term operational sustainability.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
The significant negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity challenges, impacting the company's ability to fund future investments without additional financing.
Increased Leverage
Higher leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting strategic flexibility and increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations.
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Declining realized oil prices can pressure revenue and margins, challenging the company's ability to maintain profitability in a volatile market.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth51.55%
EPS Growth29.12%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.24
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume1,518,320
30 Day Avg. Volume1,359,792
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.95Price Target Upside49.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on selling the extracted hydrocarbons to various markets, including domestic and international buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil at prevailing market prices and the sale of natural gas, which can be influenced by contracts and spot market rates. Additionally, Vista may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to share resources and expertise, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing capital expenditures. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating commodity prices, production output, and operational costs.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 10, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Vista's significant growth in production and revenue due to a transformational acquisition, alongside improvements in cost efficiency and EBITDA growth. However, these positives were somewhat offset by the challenges of a negative free cash flow, increased leverage, and lower realized oil prices.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Transformational Acquisition
Vista completed the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, significantly increasing its size and positioning it as the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 118,000 boes per day, an increase of 81% year-over-year, with oil production at 102,000 barrels per day, up 79% year-over-year.
Revenue and Export Growth
Total revenues during the quarter were $611 million, 54% above the same quarter of last year, with oil exports tripling year-over-year to 5.6 million barrels.
Cost Efficiency Improvements
Selling expenses per boe decreased by 41% quarter-over-quarter, and drilling and completion costs per well reduced by 10% through innovation and contract renegotiations.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA was $405 million, a 40% increase year-over-year, with a 4 percentage point sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA margin.
Future Growth Potential
The company forecasts production between 125,000 and 128,000 boes per day for the second semester, with an adjusted EBITDA forecast between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion for the year.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Outflow
Free cash flow outflow was $1.4 billion, primarily due to the upfront cash payment for the Petronas Argentina acquisition.
Working Capital Deterioration
There was a $59 million increase in working capital, with cash flow from operating activities at minus $9 million due to income tax payments and midstream expansion costs.
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil price was $62.2 per barrel on average, down 13% year-over-year due to lower international prices.
Increased Leverage
Net leverage ratio increased to 1.38x adjusted EBITDA due to new debt raised for the Petronas Argentina acquisition.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Vista experienced a transformational period, primarily due to the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, significantly increasing the company's size and production capabilities. Total production reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), marking an 81% increase year-over-year, and oil production specifically was 102,000 barrels per day, up 79% year-over-year. The acquisition also contributed to a 54% increase in total revenues, totaling $611 million for the quarter. Despite a lifting cost of $4.7 per boe, which was a 4% increase year-over-year, the company's adjusted EBITDA grew by 40% to $405 million. However, the quarter saw a free cash flow outflow of $1.4 billion, largely due to the upfront payment for the acquisition. The net leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 1.38x on a pro forma basis. The company's updated guidance for 2025 forecasts total production between 112,000 and 114,000 boe/d, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, assuming a Brent price of $65 per barrel for the second semester.Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations. The balance sheet is well-structured, but increasing debt levels should be monitored. While operating cash flow is robust, negative free cash flow indicates a need to optimize capital expenditures.Income Statement
Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The TTM revenue increased significantly by 20.3% compared to the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin for the TTM is impressive at 54.75%, reflecting efficient cost management and operational effectiveness. The net profit margin also improved to 29.11%, alongside a solid EBITDA margin of 70.69%, showcasing strong profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 35.04%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is strong at 27.18%, reflecting effective utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the increase in total debt warrants monitoring to ensure it remains sustainable.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance presents mixed results. While operating cash flow is positive and strong at $681 million, the free cash flow is negative, driven by high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating solid cash generation relative to earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate highlights potential challenges in managing capital investments effectively.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M | 273.94M |
| Gross Profit | 1.09B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M | 2.43M |
| EBITDA | 1.40B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M | 90.23M |
| Net Income | 577.31M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M | -102.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.07B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 156.28M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M | 203.27M |
| Total Debt | 2.67B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M | 563.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.94B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B | 864.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.12B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M | 508.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -738.57M | -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M | -63.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 681.37M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M | 93.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.30B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M | -156.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.43B | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M | 30.89M |
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Negative
36.17
Price Trends
40.33
Negative
44.71
Negative
47.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.12
Negative
43.75
Neutral
50.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.87, below the 50-day MA of 40.33, and below the 200-day MA of 47.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIST.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | 4.72B | 7.66 | 19.52% | 2.75% | 58.35% | 210.80% | |
72 Outperform | 3.08B | 4.17 | 11.14% | 6.01% | 0.24% | -9.19% | |
72 Outperform | 3.17B | 3.86 | ― | 2.90% | 28.20% | 1.63% | |
71 Outperform | 4.29B | 15.13 | 5.48% | 4.25% | -18.08% | -49.36% | |
69 Neutral | $3.61B | 6.33 | 32.89% | ― | 51.55% | 29.12% | |
66 Neutral | 4.56B | 54.52 | -2.21% | ― | 38.21% | -67.24% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
36.17
-9.80
-21.32%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
33.29
-15.10
-31.20%
CNX
CNX Resources
32.23
0.74
2.35%
MUR
Murphy Oil
30.03
-2.07
-6.45%
SM
SM Energy
27.58
-11.20
-28.88%
CRC
California Resources Corp
56.44
6.64
13.33%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.