Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

Rating:65Neutral

Price Target:

$45.00

▲(18.17% Upside)

Vista Oil & Gas has a strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. However, technical indicators show bearish momentum, and the company faces challenges with negative free cash flow and increased leverage. The stock appears undervalued based on its P/E ratio, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunities

Vista has high exposure to Vaca Muerta, which offers appealing growth opportunities.

Management Strategy

Management has a positive track record and is well aligned with the company's growth strategy.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Issues

The company experienced unexpectedly strong cash burn, which was weaker than expected.

Financial Performance

Free cash flow to equity was negative, impacted by working capital consumption and tax payments.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.71B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.00M

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6

Beta (1Y)0.46

Revenue Growth51.55%

EPS Growth29.12%

CountryUS

Employees528

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength67

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.23

Shares Outstanding95,195,885

10 Day Avg. Volume1,018,112

30 Day Avg. Volume1,000,083

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.89

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.11

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.51

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.50

Price Target Upside79.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on selling the extracted hydrocarbons to various markets, including domestic and international buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil at prevailing market prices and the sale of natural gas, which can be influenced by contracts and spot market rates. Additionally, Vista may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to share resources and expertise, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and reducing capital expenditures. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating commodity prices, production output, and operational costs.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 10, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Vista's significant growth in production and revenue due to a transformational acquisition, alongside improvements in cost efficiency and EBITDA growth. However, these positives were somewhat offset by the challenges of a negative free cash flow, increased leverage, and lower realized oil prices.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Transformational Acquisition

Vista completed the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, significantly increasing its size and positioning it as the largest independent oil producer and exporter in Argentina.

Significant Production Increase

Total production was 118,000 boes per day, an increase of 81% year-over-year, with oil production at 102,000 barrels per day, up 79% year-over-year.

Revenue and Export Growth

Total revenues during the quarter were $611 million, 54% above the same quarter of last year, with oil exports tripling year-over-year to 5.6 million barrels.

Cost Efficiency Improvements

Selling expenses per boe decreased by 41% quarter-over-quarter, and drilling and completion costs per well reduced by 10% through innovation and contract renegotiations.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA was $405 million, a 40% increase year-over-year, with a 4 percentage point sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA margin.

Future Growth Potential

The company forecasts production between 125,000 and 128,000 boes per day for the second semester, with an adjusted EBITDA forecast between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion for the year.

Negative Updates

Free Cash Flow Outflow

Free cash flow outflow was $1.4 billion, primarily due to the upfront cash payment for the Petronas Argentina acquisition.

Working Capital Deterioration

There was a $59 million increase in working capital, with cash flow from operating activities at minus $9 million due to income tax payments and midstream expansion costs.

Lower Realized Oil Prices

Realized oil price was $62.2 per barrel on average, down 13% year-over-year due to lower international prices.

Increased Leverage

Net leverage ratio increased to 1.38x adjusted EBITDA due to new debt raised for the Petronas Argentina acquisition.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, Vista experienced a transformational period, primarily due to the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, significantly increasing the company's size and production capabilities. Total production reached 118,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), marking an 81% increase year-over-year, and oil production specifically was 102,000 barrels per day, up 79% year-over-year. The acquisition also contributed to a 54% increase in total revenues, totaling $611 million for the quarter. Despite a lifting cost of $4.7 per boe, which was a 4% increase year-over-year, the company's adjusted EBITDA grew by 40% to $405 million. However, the quarter saw a free cash flow outflow of $1.4 billion, largely due to the upfront payment for the acquisition. The net leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 1.38x on a pro forma basis. The company's updated guidance for 2025 forecasts total production between 112,000 and 114,000 boe/d, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, assuming a Brent price of $65 per barrel for the second semester.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vista Oil & Gas demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations. The balance sheet is well-structured, but increasing debt levels should be monitored. While operating cash flow is robust, negative free cash flow indicates a need to optimize capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Vista Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The TTM revenue increased significantly by 20.3% compared to the previous year, indicating robust growth. The gross profit margin for the TTM is impressive at 54.75%, reflecting efficient cost management and operational effectiveness. The net profit margin also improved to 29.11%, alongside a solid EBITDA margin of 70.69%, showcasing strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 35.04%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is strong at 27.18%, reflecting effective utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the increase in total debt warrants monitoring to ensure it remains sustainable.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow performance presents mixed results. While operating cash flow is positive and strong at $681 million, the free cash flow is negative, driven by high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating solid cash generation relative to earnings. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate highlights potential challenges in managing capital investments effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.98B	1.65B	1.17B	1.14B	652.19M	273.94M
Gross Profit	1.09B	1.26B	591.25M	630.24M	266.61M	2.43M
EBITDA	1.40B	1.10B	851.24M	706.13M	403.56M	90.23M
Net Income	577.31M	477.52M	396.95M	269.54M	50.65M	-102.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.07B	4.23B	2.60B	2.04B	1.68B	1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	156.28M	764.31M	213.25M	244.96M	315.31M	203.27M
Total Debt	2.67B	1.54B	686.52M	578.53M	638.05M	563.47M
Total Liabilities	3.94B	2.61B	1.35B	1.19B	1.12B	864.09M
Stockholders Equity	2.12B	1.62B	1.25B	844.06M	565.26M	508.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-738.57M	-93.50M	16.30M	204.38M	78.50M	-63.14M
Operating Cash Flow	681.37M	959.03M	712.03M	689.77M	401.39M	93.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.30B	-1.05B	-699.31M	-582.71M	-295.46M	-156.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.43B	641.21M	19.56M	-143.20M	6.53M	30.89M

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price38.08

Price Trends

50DMA

43.57

Negative

100DMA

46.07

Negative

200DMA

48.80

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.57

Positive

RSI

34.43

Neutral

STOCH

21.52

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.34, below the 50-day MA of 43.57, and below the 200-day MA of 48.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIST.

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	82 Outperform	$4.31B	6.72	24.36%	3.16%	58.35%	210.80%
MGY	79 Outperform	$4.69B	12.53	19.24%	2.41%	2.67%	-5.79%
MUR	71 Outperform	$3.67B	13.00	5.42%	5.11%	-18.08%	-49.36%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.58B	10.56	24.31%	11.73%	-8.06%	-22.61%
CNX	67 Neutral	$4.16B	49.73	3.73%	―	38.21%	-67.24%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.28B	7.48	3.19%	5.33%	4.10%	-60.58%
VIST	65 Neutral	$3.71B	6.65	32.89%	―	51.55%	29.12%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VIST

Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV

38.08

-9.72

-20.33%

CNX

CNX Resources

29.55

2.83

10.59%

MUR

Murphy Oil

24.93

-7.93

-24.13%

BSM

Black Stone Minerals

11.95

-0.74

-5.83%

MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas

23.62

0.75

3.28%

CRC

California Resources Corp

49.03

2.88

6.24%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025