Vista Energy, S.A.B. De C.V. (VIST)
NYSE:VIST
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Vista Energy SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(9.26% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/02/26
The score is led by strong technical trend strength and an attractive low P/E valuation. Offsetting these positives are weaker cash-flow durability (negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 and weaker cash conversion) and rising leverage, while the latest earnings call is constructive on growth and 2026 free cash flow but highlights continued high CapEx needs and oil price/M&A financing sensitivity.
Positive Factors
Reserve & Inventory Scale
A 57% jump in proved reserves and a >1,600 well inventory materially extend production visibility (implied ~14 years of P1 life) and de-risks volume sustainability. This scale supports multi-year development plans, steadier long-term cash flows and optionality for phased capex or asset monetization.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage increasing to ~1.3x equity and ~1.5x EBITDA compresses financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if commodity prices weaken. Higher fixed obligations limit strategic optionality for returns or opportunistic M&A and increase sensitivity to interest-rate or credit-market disturbances.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Reserve & Inventory Scale
A 57% jump in proved reserves and a >1,600 well inventory materially extend production visibility (implied ~14 years of P1 life) and de-risks volume sustainability. This scale supports multi-year development plans, steadier long-term cash flows and optionality for phased capex or asset monetization.
Read all positive factors
Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth50.79%
EPS Growth32.97%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.80
Shares Outstanding95,195,885
10 Day Avg. Volume1,317,541
30 Day Avg. Volume1,956,758
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)1.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio-6.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.25Price Target Upside31.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.49B
Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing ...
How the Company Makes Money
Vista Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons. Its main revenue stream is the sale of crude oil produced from its operated fields (largely unconventional shale wells), with additional revenue from sales of natural gas an...
Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance: very large YoY production and EBITDA increases, material cost reductions, reserve growth, positive H2 free cash flow, and accretive M&A that expands inventory and scale. Key near-term headwinds include lower realized oil prices that depressed sequential revenue and EBITDA, significant ongoing CapEx requirements, and conditionality/financing around the Equinor acquisition. On balance, the company's progress, guidance reaffirmation, and clear capital allocation framework outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Total production of 135,400 BOE/d in Q4 2025, +59% year-over-year and +7% quarter-over-quarter; oil production of 118,300 bbl/d, +61% YoY and +8% QoQ; gas production +45% YoY.
Negative Updates
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil price in Q4 averaged $58.9/bbl, down 12% YoY and 9% QoQ, which reduced revenue and led to a sequential adjusted EBITDA decline (-6% QoQ) despite production growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Total production of 135,400 BOE/d in Q4 2025, +59% year-over-year and +7% quarter-over-quarter; oil production of 118,300 bbl/d, +61% YoY and +8% QoQ; gas production +45% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vista's 2026 guidance assumes Brent at $65 and targets total production of 140,000 BOE/day supported by 80–90 well tie‑ins and $1.5–$1.6 billion of CapEx (ex‑Equinor), with 20–22 tie‑ins in Q1 (10 put on production in January), production ~132,000 bbl/day in February and expected to exceed 140,000 bbl/day in March; the company sees Q1 flattish/slightly below Q4, a substantial step‑up in Q2, flat Q3 and another step in Q4 (aiming for an adjusted EBITDA run‑rate of ~ $2.0 billion by Q4) and reiterates $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the year, plus free cash flow of $150–$200 million at $65 Brent (Q1 negative, turning positive from Q2 onward).Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.48B | 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M |
| Gross Profit | 1.18B | 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 1.10B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M |
| Net Income | 721.38M | 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.11B | 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 538.41M | 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M |
| Total Debt | 3.30B | 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.60B | 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.51B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -821.62M | -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 638.48M | 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.37B | -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.50B | 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M |
Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Neutral
64.98
Price Trends
63.41
Positive
56.82
Positive
49.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Positive
46.56
Neutral
28.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 64.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.40, above the 50-day MA of 63.41, and above the 200-day MA of 49.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VIST.
Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.67B | 10.72 | 10.34% | 3.56% | 33.85% | -34.08% | |
75 Outperform | $6.69B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 34.93% | -11.85% | |
70 Outperform | $6.47B | 14.17 | 37.31% | ― | 50.79% | 32.97% | |
66 Neutral | $5.38B | 6.35 | 15.52% | ― | 43.30% | -43.07% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $5.46B | 42.92 | 2.03% | 4.15% | -13.92% | -68.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
68.70
21.10
44.33%
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CRC
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64.65
30.88
91.44%
Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events
Vista Energy’s Argentine Unit Prices $500 Million in 2038 New York-Law Notes
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Vista Energy announced that its main subsidiary, Vista Energy Argentina S.A.U., priced U.S.$500 million of 7.875% senior notes due 2038 under New York law. The notes, placed with institutional investors under Rule 144A and Regula...
Vista Energy Sets Late-April Date to Release First-Quarter 2026 Results
Mar 18, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., the Mexico City-based energy producer listed in New York and Mexico, said it will disclose its consolidated financial statements for the first quarter of 2026 on April 29, 2026, after the market close. The company add...
Vista Energy Calls April 28, 2026 Shareholder Meeting to Ratify Capital Changes and Renew Buyback Authorization
Mar 17, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has called its annual ordinary general shareholders’ meeting for April 28, 2026, in Mexico City to address a wide range of corporate governance and capital matters. The agenda includes ratifying a reduction in th...
Vista Energy Files Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Webcast Materials
Feb 26, 2026
Vista Energy furnished a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2026, dated February 26, 2026, providing investors with its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings webcast presentation. The filing underscores that s...
Vista Energy Files Unaudited 2025 Year-End Interim Financials With U.S. SEC
Feb 25, 2026
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., a Mexico City-based upstream oil and gas producer focused on Latin American markets, has filed a Form 6-K as a foreign issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for February 2026. The filing reflects the...
Vista Energy Posts Strong 2025 Growth on Vaca Muerta Expansion and La Amarga Chica Deal
Feb 25, 2026
Vista Energy reported on February 25, 2026, that fourth‑quarter 2025 production rose to 135,414 boe/d, up 7% sequentially and 59% year‑on‑year, driven largely by the April 2025 acquisition of a 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica bl...
Vista Energy Clears Key Hurdle in Vaca Muerta Asset Acquisition
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Vista Energy reported a key milestone in its planned acquisition of Equinor’s interests in the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. Shell Argentina waived its right of first refusal over a 30% working interest in the Ba...
Vista Energy Boosts Proved Reserves 57% on Vaca Muerta Growth and Acquisitions
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Vista Energy reported certified proved (P1) oil and gas reserves of 588.1 million barrels of oil equivalent as of December 31, 2025, a 57% increase year-on-year. The expansion was driven by 255.1 MMboe in total additions, inc...
Vista Energy to Acquire Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Stakes in US$712 Million Deal
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy announced a series of agreements to acquire Equinor’s interests in two core Vaca Muerta blocks, securing a 25.1% non-operating working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35.0% non-operating working interest in ...
Vista Energy Unveils Corporate Reorganization to Reshape Argentine Upstream Interests
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced a corporate restructuring centered on expanding and reshaping its interests in key Argentine oil and gas blocks through a multi-step transaction with Equinor and YPF. Vista and its Argent...
Vista Energy Shareholders Approve New Mandate for Major Unconventional Hydrocarbon Acquisitions
Jan 27, 2026
At an ordinary general shareholders’ meeting held in Mexico City on January 27, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. obtained shareholder approval to pursue one or more significant acquisitions of exploration and exploitation rights, interests...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.