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Sm Energy Company (SM)
NYSE:SM

SM Energy (SM) AI Stock Analysis

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SM

SM Energy

(NYSE:SM)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(4.79% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability but pressured free cash flow (heavy investment spending) and margin compression, offset by very attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Corporate events are supportive due to increased scale and expanded credit capacity, while technicals remain mixed with the stock still below longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Scale & synergies from Civitas merger
Combining with Civitas materially increases scale and asset diversity across leading U.S. shale basins. Targeted synergies (~$300M) plus planned divestitures can sustainably boost free cash flow, lower per‑unit costs, and strengthen the combined company’s competitive position over years.
Balance sheet resilience
Debt below equity and improving leverage versus prior years provide financial flexibility during commodity cycles. A stronger equity base supports capital allocation for integration, targeted buybacks/dividends, and capacity to absorb cyclical cash flow swings without forcing distress sales.
Operating cash generation quality
Operating cash flow that exceeds net income indicates high cash earnings quality and durable cash generation from core operations. This underpins funding for capex and debt service if commodity prices remain supportive and helps enable execution of long-term development plans.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow trend
A swing to deeply negative free cash flow constrains the company’s ability to reduce leverage, invest organically, or return cash to shareholders without asset sales or external financing. Sustained negative FCF raises refinancing and reinvestment risk if commodity conditions deteriorate.
Margin compression vs prior periods
Compressing gross and net margins reduce cash available for reinvestment and make earnings more sensitive to commodity price or cost shocks. Lower margins can erode returns on new wells and pressure long‑term profitability unless offset by cost cuts or higher realized pricing.
Merger execution and disclosure risk
Ongoing disclosure demands and legal sensitivity around the Civitas deal create execution risk: delays, additional disclosure, or integration distraction could push back synergies, raise transaction costs, and complicate leadership/board transitions, affecting multi‑quarter strategic delivery.

SM Energy (SM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. As of February 24, 2022, it had 492.0 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves. It also has working interests in 825 gross productive oil wells and 483 gross productive gas wells in the Midland Basin and South Texas. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneySM Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its wells in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. The company's revenue streams are largely dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. SM Energy employs a strategy of optimizing its drilling and production techniques to enhance efficiency and increase output, thereby boosting revenue. The company may also enter into joint ventures, partnerships, or hedging arrangements to manage risks associated with commodity price volatility and enhance financial stability. Additionally, SM Energy occasionally monetizes non-core assets through sales or trades to focus on its core operations and improve its financial performance.

SM Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance with record production and financial beats, successful integration of Uinta Basin assets, and notable technological advancements. However, there are challenges relating to commodity price volatility and higher transportation costs.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Volumes
Record production volumes totaled 209,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the midpoint of guidance by 5%.
Financial Performance Beat
Achieved beats versus consensus for adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDAX, and adjusted free cash flow.
Uinta Basin Success
Successful integration and optimization of Uinta Basin assets, leading to enhanced production and logistics.
Debt Reduction
Paid off credit facility and built a cash balance of over $100 million, progressing towards a target leverage of 1x.
Technological Advancements
Developed machine learning models to optimize well designs, resulting in 30% better performance than peers.
Successful Drilling and Cost Efficiency
Reduced average D&C cost per foot by 15% since 2022 and drilled the fastest wells in company history.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Volatility
Faced challenges due to potential impacts of OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical tensions, and commodity price volatility.
Increased Capital Expenditures
Second quarter CapEx slightly higher than guidance due to accelerated drilling and completions.
Higher Transportation Costs
Transportation expense per BOE increased by 5% sequentially due to the Uinta Basin production mix.
Company Guidance
During SM Energy's second quarter 2025 webcast, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. They reported record production volumes totaling 209,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing the guidance midpoint by 5% due to strong asset performance, particularly in the Uinta Basin. The company achieved a cash balance of over $100 million and aims to reach a leverage target of 1x by year-end. The financial results included beats on adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDAX, and adjusted free cash flow. SM Energy anticipates full-year production of 200,000 to 215,000 BOE per day, with oil comprising 53% to 54% of production. Capital expenditures for 2025 are updated to approximately $1.375 billion, with expectations to drill 115 net wells. The company also reduced expected cash taxes to approximately $10 million for 2025 following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. For the third quarter, production is expected to be between 209,000 and 215,000 BOE per day, with capital expenditures ranging from $300 million to $320 million. The company plans to discuss 2026 strategies early next year, focusing on operational excellence and capital efficiency.

SM Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is strong and operating cash flow exceeds net income, but free cash flow is negative in TTM (and deeply negative in 2024) due to heavy investment spending. Margins have compressed versus 2023–2024, increasing sensitivity to a weaker commodity/pricing backdrop despite manageable leverage.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Profitability is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with solid gross and net margins and meaningful operating profit generation. Revenue growth in TTM is positive, but margins have compressed versus recent annual periods (notably lower gross and net margin than 2024/2023), suggesting a less favorable pricing/cost backdrop. Results are also historically cyclical, with a sharp loss year in 2020 followed by a strong recovery.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Leverage appears manageable with debt below equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and improving versus 2024, while equity has grown versus prior years—supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity remain healthy in TTM, though below peak levels seen in 2022–2023. Key risk is the industry’s volatility: the company has previously operated with higher leverage (2020–2021) and weaker returns during downturns.
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
Operating cash flow in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is strong and more than covers net income, indicating solid cash earnings quality. However, free cash flow is negative in TTM and also deeply negative in 2024, pointing to heavy investment spending and weaker near-term cash available for debt reduction/returns to shareholders. The sharp swing from positive free cash flow in 2022–2023 to negative in 2024–TTM increases cash flow risk if commodity conditions soften.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.27B2.67B2.36B3.35B2.60B1.13B
Gross Profit1.23B1.23B1.11B2.12B1.32B-50.02M
EBITDA2.26B1.92B1.70B2.12B980.91M-7.83M
Net Income727.30M770.29M817.88M1.11B36.23M-764.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.09B8.58B6.38B5.72B5.23B4.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments162.25M0.00616.16M445.00M332.72M10.00K
Total Debt2.29B2.84B1.58B1.57B2.08B2.21B
Total Liabilities4.38B4.34B2.76B2.63B3.17B2.96B
Stockholders Equity4.71B4.24B3.62B3.09B2.06B2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-733.23M-1.63B475.05M806.47M481.61M235.29M
Operating Cash Flow2.14B1.78B1.57B1.69B1.16B790.94M
Investing Cash Flow-3.29B-3.41B-1.10B-880.26M-667.24M-555.57M
Financing Cash Flow-79.21M1.01B-304.54M-693.86M-159.83M-235.38M

SM Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.04
Price Trends
50DMA
18.85
Positive
100DMA
20.49
Negative
200DMA
22.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.19
Negative
RSI
62.23
Neutral
STOCH
47.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.66, above the 50-day MA of 18.85, and below the 200-day MA of 22.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SM.

SM Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$3.17B12.8823.90%9.94%-0.75%-29.40%
72
Outperform
$4.77B3.0116.58%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
72
Outperform
$2.34B3.989.56%7.36%-6.52%-32.26%
72
Outperform
$2.47B13.827.95%8.18%1.51%-78.38%
66
Neutral
$3.97B-107.610.08%38.16%-115.65%
66
Neutral
$3.32B-68.710.64%5.78%32.31%-122.30%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SM
SM Energy
20.04
-15.87
-44.19%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
27.38
-17.75
-39.33%
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
25.31
-7.98
-23.98%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.98
1.62
12.13%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
205.28
23.75
13.08%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
10.10
-3.99
-28.32%

SM Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
SM Energy closes Civitas merger and expands credit capacity
Positive
Jan 30, 2026

On January 30, 2026, SM Energy closed its all‑stock merger with Civitas Resources, following shareholder approval at both companies on January 27, 2026, creating a top‑10 U.S. independent oil‑focused producer with a larger, complementary shale footprint and a premier position in the Permian Basin. In connection with the merger, Civitas shareholders received 1.45 shares of SM Energy common stock for each Civitas share, Civitas equity awards were converted into SM Energy-based instruments, and the board was expanded to 11 directors, with Beth McDonald installed as president and CEO and a balanced representation from both legacy companies. The same day, SM Energy amended its revolving credit agreement, extending the maturity of elected commitments to January 30, 2031, raising aggregate elected commitments from $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion, and increasing the borrowing base from $3.0 billion to $5.0 billion, while also adding former Civitas subsidiaries as guarantors and removing the credit spread adjustment on Term SOFR loans. SM Energy also assumed Civitas’s outstanding senior unsecured notes—totaling several billion dollars across 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031 and 2033 maturities—under supplemental indentures, with the notes now fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by former Civitas subsidiaries and subject to customary covenants and change‑of‑control protections. Collectively, the merger, credit facility expansion and note assumptions materially reshape SM Energy’s capital structure, scale and governance, positioning the company with enhanced borrowing capacity, broader asset backing for its debt and a unified management team as it integrates Civitas and prepares to outline its 2026 operating plan and capital‑return framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
SM Energy Shareholders Approve Transformative Merger with Civitas
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 27, 2026, SM Energy and Civitas Resources reported that stockholders of both companies overwhelmingly approved all proposals required to complete their previously announced all-stock merger, clearing a major hurdle toward closing the transaction, which is expected to create a larger SM Energy-branded oil and gas producer with expanded scale and a broadened asset base in leading U.S. shale basins. At SM Energy’s special meeting, investors also backed an increase in authorized common shares to 400 million to facilitate the deal, while management from both companies framed the merger as a transformative step that strengthens competitive positioning and is intended to support higher free cash flow, operational synergies and long-term value creation for shareholders, with final voting results to be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
SM Energy announces post-merger leadership and board overhaul
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company agreed to merge with Civitas Resources through a two-step transaction under which Civitas will first become a wholly owned subsidiary and then be merged into SM Energy, prompting a significant reshaping of the company’s board and leadership in January 2026 to align governance with the combined entity. On January 20, 2026, four directors submitted resignations effective at the closing of the first merger, the board was expanded to 11 members and six new directors, including industry veterans, were appointed along with extensive committee reassignments and dissolution of the Executive Committee; concurrently, effective at the closing of the second merger, Elizabeth A. McDonald was named president and chief executive officer and Blake D. McKenna executive vice president and chief operating officer, with detailed compensation packages, signaling a planned leadership transition and governance overhaul intended to guide the enlarged company post-merger while affirming that the changes do not stem from internal disagreements and involve no related-party conflicts.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
SM Energy supplements merger disclosures amid shareholder demands
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

SM Energy Company, which in November 2025 agreed to merge with Civitas Resources through a two-step transaction that will ultimately fold Civitas into SM Energy, has received multiple demand letters from purported stockholders since December 2025 alleging disclosure deficiencies in the joint proxy statement/prospectus related to the deal. While firmly denying any wrongdoing or legal obligation to provide further information, the company is voluntarily supplementing its merger disclosure to avoid potential litigation delays and keep special shareholder meetings for both companies on track for January 27, 2026, providing expanded detail on Evercore’s valuation work, including reserve-based net asset value, discounted cash flow analyses, peer multiple comparisons and analyst price targets for SM Energy and Civitas, which collectively frame how the implied equity values and exchange ratio compare with prevailing market prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SM Energy cleared for Civitas merger amid leadership shift
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 15, 2025, SM Energy announced that Kenneth J. Knott, its long-serving Senior Vice President of Business Development and Land, will step down from his current executive role upon the closing of its pending mergers with Civitas Resources but is expected to remain involved as an advisor to support transition and integration. The company also reported that, in connection with the two-step merger structure under which Civitas will ultimately be combined into SM Energy, the Federal Trade Commission granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act waiting period effective December 18, 2025, clearing a key regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the transaction to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to remaining customary conditions; the leadership change and regulatory milestone underscore the significance of the Civitas deal for SM Energy’s future corporate structure and integration plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
SM Energy Announces Merger Details with Civitas
Positive
Nov 17, 2025

On November 17, 2025, SM Energy and Civitas Resources announced additional details regarding their planned merger, highlighting a leadership team and board structure post-transaction. The merger aims to achieve synergies of up to $300 million annually, with plans for significant divestitures to strengthen the balance sheet and enhance shareholder returns. Credit agencies have responded positively, and the companies plan to engage with investors through upcoming conferences.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
SM Energy Announces Merger with Civitas Resources
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company announced a merger agreement with Civitas Resources, Inc., where Civitas will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SM Energy. The merger involves a share exchange and is subject to various conditions, including stockholder approvals and regulatory clearances. The merger is expected to streamline operations and potentially enhance shareholder value, with a new board structure comprising members from both companies. The transaction’s success depends on meeting several regulatory and stockholder conditions, and it includes termination fees if the merger is not completed by August 3, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
SM Energy Announces Merger with Civitas Resources
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company and Civitas Resources entered into a definitive merger agreement, creating a combined entity valued at approximately $12.8 billion. The merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, aims to enhance stockholder value through significant synergies and increased free cash flow, positioning the new company as a leading independent oil-focused producer in the U.S. shale basins.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026