SM Energy (SM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.13B
• Dividend Yield: 4.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 34.93%
• EPS Growth: -11.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 663
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.33
• Shares Outstanding: 114,554,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,964,423
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,726,650
• PEG Ratio: -2.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.22
• 1Y Price Target: $30.14
• Price Target Upside: 64.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(9.05% Upside)

Strong financial recovery and exceptional valuation drive score, bolstered by merger synergies; tempered by weak technicals and cash flow pressures.

Positive Factors

Production Growth Plans

Significant production growth plans indicate a strong commitment to scaling operations, which can enhance market position and revenue potential.

Operational Efficiency

Ongoing improvements in operational efficiency can lead to sustained margin enhancement and competitive advantage in cost management.

Strategic Hedging

Effective hedging strategies protect cash flow against commodity price volatility, ensuring financial stability and planning certainty.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Constraints

Cash flow constraints due to low oil prices can limit financial flexibility, affecting debt reduction and investment capabilities.

Higher Operating Costs

Rising operating costs can pressure profit margins and reduce the ability to invest in growth initiatives, impacting long-term profitability.

Commodity Price Volatility

Volatile commodity prices can disrupt financial planning and operational execution, posing risks to revenue stability and strategic goals.

SM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. As of February 24, 2022, it had 492.0 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves. It also has working interests in 825 gross productive oil wells and 483 gross productive gas wells in the Midland Basin and South Texas. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

SM Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its wells in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. The company's revenue streams are largely dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. SM Energy employs a strategy of optimizing its drilling and production techniques to enhance efficiency and increase output, thereby boosting revenue. The company may also enter into joint ventures, partnerships, or hedging arrangements to manage risks associated with commodity price volatility and enhance financial stability. Additionally, SM Energy occasionally monetizes non-core assets through sales or trades to focus on its core operations and improve its financial performance.

SM Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong in TTM with solid operating profit generation, and leverage appears manageable with debt below equity. Offsetting this, free cash flow is negative in TTM (and deeply negative in 2024) and margins have compressed versus 2023–2024, increasing cash-flow and cycle risk.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with solid gross and net margins and meaningful operating profit generation. Revenue growth in TTM is positive, but margins have compressed versus recent annual periods (notably lower gross and net margin than 2024/2023), suggesting a less favorable pricing/cost backdrop. Results are also historically cyclical, with a sharp loss year in 2020 followed by a strong recovery.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt below equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and improving versus 2024, while equity has grown versus prior years—supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity remain healthy in TTM, though below peak levels seen in 2022–2023. Key risk is the industry’s volatility: the company has previously operated with higher leverage (2020–2021) and weaker returns during downturns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is strong and more than covers net income, indicating solid cash earnings quality. However, free cash flow is negative in TTM and also deeply negative in 2024, pointing to heavy investment spending and weaker near-term cash available for debt reduction/returns to shareholders. The sharp swing from positive free cash flow in 2022–2023 to negative in 2024–TTM increases cash flow risk if commodity conditions soften.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.27B	2.67B	2.36B	3.35B	2.60B	1.13B
Gross Profit	1.23B	1.23B	1.11B	2.12B	1.32B	-50.02M
EBITDA	2.26B	1.92B	1.70B	2.12B	980.91M	-7.83M
Net Income	727.30M	770.29M	817.88M	1.11B	36.23M	-764.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.09B	8.58B	6.38B	5.72B	5.23B	4.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	162.25M	0.00	616.16M	445.00M	332.72M	10.00K
Total Debt	2.29B	2.84B	1.58B	1.57B	2.08B	2.21B
Total Liabilities	4.38B	4.34B	2.76B	2.63B	3.17B	2.96B
Stockholders Equity	4.71B	4.24B	3.62B	3.09B	2.06B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-733.23M	-1.63B	475.05M	806.47M	481.61M	235.29M
Operating Cash Flow	2.14B	1.78B	1.57B	1.69B	1.16B	790.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.29B	-3.41B	-1.10B	-880.26M	-667.24M	-555.57M
Financing Cash Flow	-79.21M	1.01B	-304.54M	-693.86M	-159.83M	-235.38M

SM Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.48, below the 50-day MA of 18.69, and below the 200-day MA of 23.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SM.

SM Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SM	76 Outperform	$2.13B	2.94	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
BSM	76 Outperform	$3.01B	12.37	23.90%	9.94%	-0.75%	-29.40%
CIVI	73 Outperform	$2.31B	3.93	9.56%	7.36%	-6.52%	-32.26%
NOG	72 Outperform	$2.24B	12.93	7.95%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
GPOR	66 Neutral	$3.41B	-93.25	0.08%	―	38.16%	-115.65%
CRGY	66 Neutral	$2.79B	-57.07	0.64%	5.78%	32.31%	-122.30%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

SM Energy Corporate Events

SM Energy cleared for Civitas merger amid leadership shift

On December 15, 2025, SM Energy announced that Kenneth J. Knott, its long-serving Senior Vice President of Business Development and Land, will step down from his current executive role upon the closing of its pending mergers with Civitas Resources but is expected to remain involved as an advisor to support transition and integration. The company also reported that, in connection with the two-step merger structure under which Civitas will ultimately be combined into SM Energy, the Federal Trade Commission granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act waiting period effective December 18, 2025, clearing a key regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the transaction to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to remaining customary conditions; the leadership change and regulatory milestone underscore the significance of the Civitas deal for SM Energy’s future corporate structure and integration plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

SM Energy Announces Merger Details with Civitas

On November 17, 2025, SM Energy and Civitas Resources announced additional details regarding their planned merger, highlighting a leadership team and board structure post-transaction. The merger aims to achieve synergies of up to $300 million annually, with plans for significant divestitures to strengthen the balance sheet and enhance shareholder returns. Credit agencies have responded positively, and the companies plan to engage with investors through upcoming conferences.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

SM Energy Announces Merger with Civitas Resources

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company announced a merger agreement with Civitas Resources, Inc., where Civitas will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SM Energy. The merger involves a share exchange and is subject to various conditions, including stockholder approvals and regulatory clearances. The merger is expected to streamline operations and potentially enhance shareholder value, with a new board structure comprising members from both companies. The transaction’s success depends on meeting several regulatory and stockholder conditions, and it includes termination fees if the merger is not completed by August 3, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

SM Energy Announces Merger with Civitas Resources

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company and Civitas Resources entered into a definitive merger agreement, creating a combined entity valued at approximately $12.8 billion. The merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, aims to enhance stockholder value through significant synergies and increased free cash flow, positioning the new company as a leading independent oil-focused producer in the U.S. shale basins.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

SM Energy Completes Borrowing Base Redetermination

On October 16, 2025, SM Energy Company announced the completion of its semi-annual borrowing base redetermination, with the lender group reaffirming the borrowing base at $3.0 billion and maintaining the elected commitment amount at $2.0 billion. The company also amended its Credit Agreement to eliminate the prior springing maturity provision, introducing a more flexible structure based on short-term debt and borrowing availability, reflecting the banking partners’ trust in SM Energy’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.