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Sm Energy Company (SM)
NYSE:SM

SM Energy (SM) AI Stock Analysis

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SM

SM Energy

(NYSE:SM)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(1.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (very low P/E with a ~3.6% yield) and supportive earnings-call direction centered on deleveraging and free-cash-flow-focused capital discipline. Financial performance is solid but held back by cyclicality and free cash flow volatility, while technicals are improving yet not fully supportive versus the 200-day trend.
Positive Factors
Scale & Permian Footprint
The Civitas merger meaningfully increases scale and consolidates acreage in premier U.S. basins, notably the Permian. Larger, complementary assets and expanded technical depth improve operational optionality, fixed-cost absorption and strategic flexibility across cycles over the next several years.
Stronger Liquidity & Credit Capacity
Materially expanded credit capacity and nearly $3B liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to manage maturities, fund prioritized CapEx reductions and pursue targeted asset sales. This reduces refinancing risk and supports the company’s deleveraging and cash-return plans over multiple quarters.
Capital Discipline & FCF Allocation
A formal, cash‑centric allocation framework and lower planned CapEx institutionalize discipline across cycles. Prioritizing debt paydown while keeping a growing fixed dividend aligns incentives to sustain credit metrics and shareholder returns, improving balance‑sheet resilience over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Volatility
Wide swings in free cash flow highlight sensitivity to timing of CapEx, working capital and asset transactions. Such volatility can undermine sustained debt reduction and buyback capacity, making multi‑quarter planning and investor returns dependent on favorable commodity and asset‑sale outcomes.
Integration & Execution Risk
Early-stage integration creates execution risk across operations, reporting and cost synergies. Realizing the remaining $200–$300M synergy target and technical optimization will require disciplined operational execution and capex prioritization; delays would weaken projected deleveraging and returns.
Pro‑Forma Leverage & Inventory Duration
Mid‑1x pro‑forma leverage and a relatively short ~8‑year inventory life limit long‑run production optionality and may force sustained higher reinvestment to maintain volumes. In weaker commodity scenarios this can slow debt paydown and constrain long‑term free‑cash‑flow durability.

SM Energy (SM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. As of February 24, 2022, it had 492.0 million barrels of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves. It also has working interests in 825 gross productive oil wells and 483 gross productive gas wells in the Midland Basin and South Texas. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneySM Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its wells in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. The company's revenue streams are largely dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. SM Energy employs a strategy of optimizing its drilling and production techniques to enhance efficiency and increase output, thereby boosting revenue. The company may also enter into joint ventures, partnerships, or hedging arrangements to manage risks associated with commodity price volatility and enhance financial stability. Additionally, SM Energy occasionally monetizes non-core assets through sales or trades to focus on its core operations and improve its financial performance.

SM Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized several strong positives — record 2025 results, material deleveraging, nearly $3 billion liquidity, meaningful near-term synergy capture from the Civitas merger, a disciplined capital plan that reduces 2026 CapEx by ~14%, a 10% dividend increase, and a clear focus on maximizing free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. Notable near-term negatives include front-loaded 2026 CapEx and Q1 production headwinds driven by legacy Civitas timing (including an approximate 14% decline in inherited assets Sep–Jan), reporting changes due to 3-stream to 2-stream conversions that complicate year-over-year production comparisons, and a pro forma leverage profile in the mid-1s with an ~8-year inventory life that could be viewed as shorter than some peers. Overall, the positive items — particularly liquidity, synergy capture, deleveraging progress, and a concrete return-of-capital plan — outweigh the headwinds and execution risks discussed.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record operational and financial performance in 2025
Delivered record operating cash flow, adjusted EBITDAX, production and oil volumes; oil constituted 53% of total production. Returned $104 million to stockholders via dividends and share repurchases.
Meaningful deleveraging and debt reduction
Reduced net debt by $437 million in 2025, finishing the year at roughly 1x leverage (pro forma leverage now mid-1s).
Significant near-term synergy capture from Civitas merger
Already actioned $185 million of the $200–$300 million synergy target (equating to roughly $1 billion in present value as characterized by management). Total potential synergies could unlock up to $1.5 billion in present value.
Strong liquidity and planned asset monetization
Borrowing base increased to $5 billion with lender commitments of $2.5 billion, delivering nearly $3 billion of liquidity. Announced sale of select South Texas assets for $950 million expected to close in Q2 to further strengthen liquidity and the balance sheet.
Capital allocation focused on free cash flow generation
2026 plan designed around $60 oil / $3.50 gas: total CapEx of $2.65–$2.85 billion, approximately 14% lower than pro forma 2025. Activity reset to an average of 11 rigs in 2026 (down from a pro forma average of 14 rigs, a ~21% reduction), prioritizing value over volume to maximize sustainable free cash flow.
Balanced return-of-capital framework and dividend increase
Announced a 10% increase in the fixed annual dividend to $0.88 per share (current yield just under 4%). Free cash flow after dividends to be allocated 80% to debt reduction and 20% to buybacks, with intention to increase buybacks as leverage declines.
Forward production guidance and go-forward run rate
Second-half 2026 production expected between 420,000 and 430,000 BOE/d at ~55% oil, which management identifies as the indicative go-forward run rate.
Credit rating and maturities management
Received credit upgrades from S&P and Fitch; plan to use liquidity to address near-term bond maturities (including 2026 maturities and a $417 million 2027 bond) and term-out maturities as market conditions permit.
Negative Updates
Front-loaded CapEx and first-quarter headwinds
2026 CapEx is front-loaded with higher spend in Q1 driven by the combined fleet (management entered the year with ~15 rigs then planned to decline to ~11). This creates near-term cash and production cadence headwinds versus the cleaner H2 run rate.
Inherited production declines from legacy Civitas timing
Management noted an approximate 14% decline on legacy Civitas assets from September into January, which contributes to early-year production weakness and complicates quarter-to-quarter comparisons.
Production reporting changes (3-stream to 2-stream conversions)
Portions of the production decline year-over-year are attributed to 3-stream to 2-stream conversions (notably ~20% of DJ BOEs reallocated to NGLs and ~5% of Permian BOEs reported as NGLs), creating modeling complexity and temporary reported volume shifts.
Post-merger leverage and inventory duration concerns
Pro forma leverage sits in the mid-1s (management target is to move to the low-1s), and the company reports an ~8-year inventory life which may be shorter than some peers — raising questions about long-term runway if commodity or capital conditions worsen.
Plan sensitivity to commodity price assumptions
The 2026 outlook and cash-flow maximization plan are built on $60 oil and $3.50 gas assumptions; downside to these price assumptions would negatively impact free cash flow, deleveraging pace, and return-of-capital targets.
Operational transition and integration risk
Integration of Civitas is early (company ~4 weeks into combined operations at time of call); while synergies have been largely captured so far, execution risk remains in fully realizing the remaining synergy target and technical optimization across newly combined assets.
Company Guidance
SM’s 2026 guidance is built around a $60/bbl oil and $3.50/MMBtu gas price case with capital spending of $2.65–$2.85 billion (about 14% below pro‑forma 2025), roughly 45% of CapEx to the Permian and ~45% of total capital deployed in H2, with activity reset to ~11 rigs by year‑end (down ~3 from a pro‑forma avg of 14; started the year at 15); Q1 is front‑loaded (heavier spend, Q1 estimates include only two months of Civitas) and H2 volumes are expected at 420–430 MBOE/d (55% oil) as the go‑forward run rate. The plan prioritizes free cash flow to drive delevering from mid‑1x pro‑forma leverage toward the low‑1s, allocates 80% of quarterly FCF after dividends to debt reduction and 20% to buybacks, and supports a 10% increase in the fixed dividend to $0.88/year (yield just under 4%). Balance‑sheet moves include a $5.0B borrowing base, $2.5B lender commitments (nearly $3B liquidity), a $950M South Texas asset sale expected to close in Q2, plans to address near‑term bond maturities (including a $417M 2027 bond), and a Civitas synergy target of $200–$300M (already actioned $185M) with $1.0–$1.5B potential present‑value upside.

SM Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and operating cash flow have been strong (healthy net margins in 2023–2024 and operating cash flow exceeding net income), and leverage has improved meaningfully. Offsetting this, results are cyclical and volatile: revenue growth turned negative in 2025, operating profitability appears pressured versus prior years, and free cash flow swung sharply (large deficit in 2024 followed by a rebound in 2025).
Income Statement
72
Positive
Profitability is strong across most of the period, with solid earnings in 2022–2024 and healthy net profit margins (about 29% in 2024 and 35% in 2023). However, the topline is volatile and recently softened: revenue growth slowed to +13.0% in 2024 and turned negative in 2025 (-3.6%). 2025 also shows a sharp drop in operating profit versus prior years (very low operating income despite still-strong EBITDA), and results remain highly cyclical as evidenced by the 2020 loss year.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity improving meaningfully from ~1.01 in 2021 to ~0.48 by 2025, alongside a larger equity base. Returns on equity were strong in 2022–2024 (roughly 18%–36%) but eased to ~13% in 2025, signaling reduced efficiency in converting equity into profits recently. Overall balance sheet risk appears moderate for the industry, but performance remains sensitive to commodity-driven earnings swings.
Cash Flow
61
Positive
Operating cash generation is consistently solid and generally covers accounting profits well (operating cash flow running ~1.7x–2.8x of net income from 2022–2025). The key weakness is free cash flow volatility: a large free cash flow deficit in 2024 (-$1.63B) followed by a rebound to +$573M in 2025, and free cash flow has not consistently tracked net income (negative versus net income in 2024; only ~28% of net income in 2025). This points to meaningful swings in capital spending and/or working capital that can pressure shareholder returns in down cycles.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.15B2.67B2.36B3.35B2.60B
Gross Profit1.00B1.23B1.11B2.12B1.32B
EBITDA2.21B1.92B1.70B2.12B980.91M
Net Income648.00M770.29M817.88M1.11B36.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.25B8.58B6.38B5.72B5.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments368.00M0.00616.16M445.00M332.72M
Total Debt2.30B2.84B1.58B1.57B2.08B
Total Liabilities4.44B4.34B2.76B2.63B3.17B
Stockholders Equity4.81B4.24B3.62B3.09B2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow573.00M-1.63B475.05M806.47M481.61M
Operating Cash Flow2.01B1.78B1.57B1.69B1.16B
Investing Cash Flow-1.47B-3.41B-1.10B-880.26M-667.24M
Financing Cash Flow-175.00M1.01B-304.54M-693.86M-159.83M

SM Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price23.13
Price Trends
50DMA
19.71
Positive
100DMA
19.87
Positive
200DMA
22.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.88
Positive
RSI
62.09
Neutral
STOCH
52.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.43, above the 50-day MA of 19.71, and above the 200-day MA of 22.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SM.

SM Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$3.21B11.8226.57%9.94%-0.75%-29.40%
72
Outperform
$5.51B4.1014.33%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
70
Outperform
$2.68B70.741.74%8.18%1.51%-78.38%
68
Neutral
$3.87B10.2722.73%38.16%-115.65%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
$3.82B21.553.21%5.78%32.31%-122.30%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SM
SM Energy
23.13
-8.41
-26.67%
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
27.59
-1.86
-6.31%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
15.10
1.49
10.93%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
208.66
38.86
22.89%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
11.66
-0.50
-4.11%

SM Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
SM Energy Posts Record 2025 Results After Civitas Merger
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

On February 25, 2026, SM Energy reported record full-year 2025 net production of 75.5 MMBoe and record operating cash flow of $2.01 billion, which helped lift adjusted EBITDAX 13% despite lower benchmark oil prices. The company generated $620 million in adjusted free cash flow, reduced net debt by $437 million to a 1.05x leverage ratio and returned $104 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, while ending the year with 673 MMBoe of proved reserves.

Fourth-quarter 2025 results included net income of $109 million, adjusted EBITDAX of $509 million and $198 million of adjusted free cash flow, supported by operating costs that came in 13% below guidance. Strategically, SM Energy closed its merger with Civitas Resources on January 30, 2026, advanced integration of new assets, and agreed to divest certain South Texas properties for $950 million, substantially achieving its $1.0 billion divestiture target and reinforcing balance sheet strength ahead of an increased fixed dividend of $0.22 per share payable March 23, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
SM Energy Divests Maverick Basin Assets to Deleverage Balance Sheet
Positive
Feb 18, 2026

SM Energy Company has agreed to sell approximately 61,000 net acres, about 260 producing wells and related facilities in its southern Maverick Basin position in Webb County, Texas, to Caturus Energy for $950 million in cash, with the transaction effective February 1, 2026 and expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. The divested South Texas assets are projected to average 37–39 MBoe/d of production and generate about $160 million in 2026 asset-level cash flow, and SM Energy plans to use the proceeds primarily for debt reduction, advancing a strategic goal of more than $1 billion in asset sales to deleverage and strengthen its capital structure.

As of December 31, 2025, the properties being sold held roughly 168 MMBoe of net proved reserves, underscoring the scale of the portfolio shift away from this Maverick Basin position. The move is set to reorient SM Energy’s asset base while bolstering financial flexibility, although completion of the deal remains subject to customary regulatory reviews and closing conditions, including antitrust clearance and required consents.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
SM Energy closes Civitas merger and expands credit capacity
Positive
Jan 30, 2026

On January 30, 2026, SM Energy closed its all‑stock merger with Civitas Resources, following shareholder approval at both companies on January 27, 2026, creating a top‑10 U.S. independent oil‑focused producer with a larger, complementary shale footprint and a premier position in the Permian Basin. In connection with the merger, Civitas shareholders received 1.45 shares of SM Energy common stock for each Civitas share, Civitas equity awards were converted into SM Energy-based instruments, and the board was expanded to 11 directors, with Beth McDonald installed as president and CEO and a balanced representation from both legacy companies. The same day, SM Energy amended its revolving credit agreement, extending the maturity of elected commitments to January 30, 2031, raising aggregate elected commitments from $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion, and increasing the borrowing base from $3.0 billion to $5.0 billion, while also adding former Civitas subsidiaries as guarantors and removing the credit spread adjustment on Term SOFR loans. SM Energy also assumed Civitas’s outstanding senior unsecured notes—totaling several billion dollars across 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031 and 2033 maturities—under supplemental indentures, with the notes now fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by former Civitas subsidiaries and subject to customary covenants and change‑of‑control protections. Collectively, the merger, credit facility expansion and note assumptions materially reshape SM Energy’s capital structure, scale and governance, positioning the company with enhanced borrowing capacity, broader asset backing for its debt and a unified management team as it integrates Civitas and prepares to outline its 2026 operating plan and capital‑return framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
SM Energy Shareholders Approve Transformative Merger with Civitas
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 27, 2026, SM Energy and Civitas Resources reported that stockholders of both companies overwhelmingly approved all proposals required to complete their previously announced all-stock merger, clearing a major hurdle toward closing the transaction, which is expected to create a larger SM Energy-branded oil and gas producer with expanded scale and a broadened asset base in leading U.S. shale basins. At SM Energy’s special meeting, investors also backed an increase in authorized common shares to 400 million to facilitate the deal, while management from both companies framed the merger as a transformative step that strengthens competitive positioning and is intended to support higher free cash flow, operational synergies and long-term value creation for shareholders, with final voting results to be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
SM Energy announces post-merger leadership and board overhaul
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

On November 2, 2025, SM Energy Company agreed to merge with Civitas Resources through a two-step transaction under which Civitas will first become a wholly owned subsidiary and then be merged into SM Energy, prompting a significant reshaping of the company’s board and leadership in January 2026 to align governance with the combined entity. On January 20, 2026, four directors submitted resignations effective at the closing of the first merger, the board was expanded to 11 members and six new directors, including industry veterans, were appointed along with extensive committee reassignments and dissolution of the Executive Committee; concurrently, effective at the closing of the second merger, Elizabeth A. McDonald was named president and chief executive officer and Blake D. McKenna executive vice president and chief operating officer, with detailed compensation packages, signaling a planned leadership transition and governance overhaul intended to guide the enlarged company post-merger while affirming that the changes do not stem from internal disagreements and involve no related-party conflicts.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
SM Energy supplements merger disclosures amid shareholder demands
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

SM Energy Company, which in November 2025 agreed to merge with Civitas Resources through a two-step transaction that will ultimately fold Civitas into SM Energy, has received multiple demand letters from purported stockholders since December 2025 alleging disclosure deficiencies in the joint proxy statement/prospectus related to the deal. While firmly denying any wrongdoing or legal obligation to provide further information, the company is voluntarily supplementing its merger disclosure to avoid potential litigation delays and keep special shareholder meetings for both companies on track for January 27, 2026, providing expanded detail on Evercore’s valuation work, including reserve-based net asset value, discounted cash flow analyses, peer multiple comparisons and analyst price targets for SM Energy and Civitas, which collectively frame how the implied equity values and exchange ratio compare with prevailing market prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SM Energy cleared for Civitas merger amid leadership shift
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 15, 2025, SM Energy announced that Kenneth J. Knott, its long-serving Senior Vice President of Business Development and Land, will step down from his current executive role upon the closing of its pending mergers with Civitas Resources but is expected to remain involved as an advisor to support transition and integration. The company also reported that, in connection with the two-step merger structure under which Civitas will ultimately be combined into SM Energy, the Federal Trade Commission granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act waiting period effective December 18, 2025, clearing a key regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the transaction to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to remaining customary conditions; the leadership change and regulatory milestone underscore the significance of the Civitas deal for SM Energy’s future corporate structure and integration plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (SM) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SM Energy stock, see the SM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026