Black Stone Minerals (BSM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.23B
• Dividend Yield: 9.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 361.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -0.75%
• EPS Growth: -29.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 115
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 211,862,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 412,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 361,159
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.56
• 1Y Price Target: $13.00
• Price Target Upside: -14.64% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(14.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, strong cash conversion, and low leverage). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and high yield, while technicals show a healthy uptrend. The main offset is the earnings outlook risk profile: near-term production softness, meaningful 2026 seismic expense, and thin distribution coverage amid commodity price uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Minimal leverage and periods of zero debt give Black Stone durable financial flexibility. Low solvency risk supports sustaining distributions, funding seismic and bolt-on acquisitions, and absorbing cyclical revenue swings without forcing asset sales or emergency capital raises over the next 2–6 months.

High-quality cash generation

Operating cash flow persistently outpaces net income and free cash flow tracks net income (~94%–99%), indicating strong cash conversion. This durable cash generation underpins distributions, funds acquisitions and seismic programs, and provides a buffer through commodity cycles.

Large development agreements & inventory

Contracted development commitments across ~500k gross acres and ~$240M of recent acquisitions materially increase long-term development exposure. Firm drilling schedules and operator commitments create visible multi-year production upside that should lift royalties as wells are drilled and produced.

Negative Factors

Production and revenue cyclicality

Royalty revenues remain highly dependent on third-party operator activity and commodity cycles. An 11% QoQ production drop highlights near-term volatility risk: if operator drilling or commodity prices weaken, royalty cash flows and distributions can compress materially over the coming months.

Concentrated seismic expense in 2026

A sizable, near-term seismic expense (~$30M) will depress adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow in 2026 despite being intended to accelerate future development. Even if treated as non-core in adjusted metrics, the cash and accounting impact tightens coverage and can constrain other capital allocations.

Thin distribution coverage & commodity sensitivity

Coverage near 1.05x leaves little margin for error; adverse commodity moves, drilling delays, or unexpected costs could force distribution cuts or capital delays. While hedges exist, forward gas strip weakness and liquids timing risks preserve meaningful downside to cash-flow stability in the medium term.

Black Stone Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.8 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.7 million gross acres located in 41 states in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a total estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves of 59,824 barrels of oil equivalent. Black Stone Minerals, L.P. was founded in 1876 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Black Stone Minerals makes money through the collection of royalties and lease bonus payments from its mineral and royalty interests. The company earns revenues when it leases its mineral interests to oil and gas exploration and production companies, who then extract resources from the land. These leases typically include royalty agreements that entitle Black Stone Minerals to a percentage of the revenue from the produced oil and gas. Additionally, the company periodically receives lease bonus payments as upfront fees when new leases are signed. Black Stone Minerals benefits from a diversified asset base across various basins, reducing its reliance on any single resource play and enhancing its revenue stability. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with operators to optimize the development of its assets, further contributing to its earnings.

Black Stone Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash conversion with a conservatively positioned balance sheet (minimal leverage). The main risk is cyclicality, with meaningful revenue and cash-flow volatility across years.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with very high gross and net margins across the period and especially strong results in 2023–2025 (e.g., 2025 net margin ~71% and EBIT margin ~62%). However, top-line performance has been volatile: revenues surged in 2021–2022, then contracted in 2023–2024 before returning to modest growth in 2025. Overall, earnings power looks strong, but revenue cyclicality is a key risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with minimal leverage: total debt is zero in 2023 and 2025 and only modest in other years, keeping debt-to-equity near zero. Returns on equity are strong (roughly ~24% to ~39% in 2022–2025), indicating efficient equity utilization. The main watch-out is equity variability (notably lower in 2025 vs. 2024), but solvency risk appears low given the limited debt burden.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is robust and high-quality: operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income by a wide margin, and free cash flow closely tracks net income (generally ~94%–99%). Free cash flow grew strongly in 2025, though it declined in 2024 and was uneven earlier, reflecting commodity-driven variability. Overall, the company demonstrates strong cash conversion with some year-to-year volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	422.33M	439.43M	501.10M	784.28M	505.73M
Gross Profit	316.27M	334.95M	387.05M	657.87M	381.85M
EBITDA	347.12M	319.63M	470.99M	530.57M	248.64M
Net Income	299.93M	271.33M	422.55M	476.48M	181.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.22B	1.27B	1.27B	1.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.48M	2.52M	70.28M	4.31M	8.88M
Total Debt	0.00	25.00M	0.00	10.00M	89.00M
Total Liabilities	207.10M	89.47M	49.54M	61.27M	184.29M
Stockholders Equity	827.98M	1.13B	1.22B	1.21B	1.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	298.41M	384.83M	501.44M	412.42M	242.25M
Operating Cash Flow	310.17M	389.04M	521.25M	424.98M	256.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-118.27M	-112.24M	-19.74M	-1.22M	-14.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-192.93M	-344.57M	-435.54M	-428.34M	-235.48M

Black Stone Minerals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BSM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.77, above the 50-day MA of 14.07, and above the 200-day MA of 12.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BSM.

Black Stone Minerals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BSM	80 Outperform	$3.23B	11.63	―	9.94%	-0.75%	-29.40%
NOG	72 Outperform	$2.65B	15.40	7.95%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
SM	72 Outperform	$5.35B	3.60	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRGY	66 Neutral	$3.39B	-70.27	0.64%	5.78%	32.31%	-122.30%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BKV	61 Neutral	$2.88B	57.38	2.62%	―	31.67%	―

Black Stone Minerals Corporate Events

Black Stone Minerals Posts Solid Q4 Results, Maintains Payout

On February 23, 2026, Black Stone Minerals reported fourth-quarter 2025 mineral and royalty production of 30.9 MBoe/d and total production of 32.1 MBoe/d, alongside quarterly net income of $72.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $76.7 million. The Partnership declared a $0.30 per common unit distribution for the quarter, ended 2025 with $154 million of debt against a $580 million borrowing base, and maintained distribution coverage of 1.05x.

For full-year 2025, mineral and royalty volumes averaged 33.3 MBoe/d, down 9% from 2024, while net income reached $299.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA totaled $337.4 million, supporting cash distributions of $1.28 per common unit. Black Stone acquired $114.5 million of mineral and royalty interests and expanded its Haynesville footprint through new development agreements with Revenant Energy and Caturus Energy, which add minimum drilling commitments from 8 wells in 2026, ramping to 37 by 2031.

Management highlighted that 2025 production declines were anticipated due to reduced Shelby Trough activity since late 2023, but noted volumes finished at the high end of guidance and positioned the Partnership for a pivotal 2026. With Aethon planning 18 wells in 2026 and Revenant and Caturus expected to exceed minimum obligations over time, Black Stone anticipates a significant production rebound, underpinning long-term growth in output and cash distributions while preserving balance sheet discipline and ongoing grassroots mineral acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BSM) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Black Stone Minerals stock, see the BSM Stock Forecast page.