Black Stone Minerals (BSM)
NYSE:BSM
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Black Stone Minerals
(NYSE:BSM)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(24.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, strong cash conversion, and low leverage). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and high yield, while technicals show a healthy uptrend. The main offset is the earnings outlook risk profile: near-term production softness, meaningful 2026 seismic expense, and thin distribution coverage amid commodity price uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal leverage and periods of zero debt give Black Stone durable financial flexibility. Low solvency risk supports sustaining distributions, funding seismic and bolt-on acquisitions, and absorbing cyclical revenue swings without forcing asset sales or emergency capital raises over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Production and revenue cyclicality
Royalty revenues remain highly dependent on third-party operator activity and commodity cycles. An 11% QoQ production drop highlights near-term volatility risk: if operator drilling or commodity prices weaken, royalty cash flows and distributions can compress materially over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal leverage and periods of zero debt give Black Stone durable financial flexibility. Low solvency risk supports sustaining distributions, funding seismic and bolt-on acquisitions, and absorbing cyclical revenue swings without forcing asset sales or emergency capital raises over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Black Stone Minerals (BSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.99B
Dividend Yield9.94%
Average Volume (3M)466.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth-0.75%
EPS Growth-29.40%
CountryUS
Employees115
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding212,333,790
10 Day Avg. Volume436,262
30 Day Avg. Volume466,268
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)6.66
P/FCF Ratio9.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside-0.57% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$448.96M
Black Stone Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.8 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres,...
How the Company Makes Money
Black Stone Minerals makes money through the collection of royalties and lease bonus payments from its mineral and royalty interests. The company earns revenues when it leases its mineral interests to oil and gas exploration and production compani...
Black Stone Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a constructive long-term growth story driven by large development agreements, meaningful acreage acquisitions (~$240M since 2023), proprietary seismic investment covering ~360,000 acres, and maintained distributions supported by hedges. Near-term challenges include an 11% QoQ decline in mineral & royalty production, significant seismic expense accruing in 2026, modest distributable cash flow coverage (1.05x), and commodity price uncertainty (Henry Hub strip < $3.50 for much of the year). Management emphasized confidence in funding the $0.30 distribution and a material production ramp through 2026 as contracted wells come online, implying that the positives (contracted development, inventory, and financial results) outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Large-Scale Development Agreements
Signed development agreements with Revenant Energy and Caturus Energy placing ~500,000 gross acres into development with minimum drilling commitments ramping to 37 gross wells/year by 2031; including Aethon, total commitments of ~50 gross wells over the same period. Management expects Revenant to exceed its 6-well minimum and Caturus to drill initial and pilot wells in 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Production Decline
Mineral and royalty production in Q4 was 30,900 BOE/day, an 11% decrease from the prior quarter, indicating near-term volume headwinds coming into year-end 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large-Scale Development Agreements
Signed development agreements with Revenant Energy and Caturus Energy placing ~500,000 gross acres into development with minimum drilling commitments ramping to 37 gross wells/year by 2031; including Aethon, total commitments of ~50 gross wells over the same period. Management expects Revenant to exceed its 6-well minimum and Caturus to drill initial and pilot wells in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Black Stone guided that it enters 2026 at roughly 32,000 BOE/day (Q4 mineral & royalty production 30,900 BOE/day; total Q4 production 32,100 BOE/day, down 11% q/q) and expects full‑year production to be roughly flat year‑over‑year but to grow materially from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026; Q4 results included net income of $72.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of $76.7 million, distributable cash flow of $66.8 million (1.05x coverage) and a declared distribution of $0.30/unit ($1.20 annualized), with 51% of oil & gas revenue from oil/condensate. Commercially, development agreements place ~500,000 gross acres into development with minimum drilling ramping to 37 gross wells/year by 2031 (50 gross wells including Aethon over that period); Aethon wells are producing ~25–30 MMcf/day with five more wells expected in Q1 and ~18 wells planned in 2026, Revenant will exceed its 6‑well minimum, and Black Stone has invested about $240 million since 2023 on acquisitions. The partnership is funding two 3D seismic surveys covering ~360,000 gross acres (roughly $30 million of seismic‑related expense in 2026, ~90% of forecasted seismic costs, with completion targeted in early 2027 and potential partial reimbursement), and said it has strong natural gas hedges in place.Black Stone Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 422.33M | 439.43M | 501.10M | 784.28M | 505.73M |
| Gross Profit | 316.27M | 334.95M | 387.05M | 657.87M | 381.85M |
| EBITDA | 347.12M | 319.63M | 470.99M | 530.57M | 248.64M |
| Net Income | 299.93M | 271.33M | 422.55M | 476.48M | 181.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.34B | 1.22B | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.48M | 2.52M | 70.28M | 4.31M | 8.88M |
| Total Debt | 154.00M | 25.00M | 0.00 | 10.00M | 89.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 207.10M | 89.47M | 49.54M | 61.27M | 184.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.22B | 1.21B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 298.41M | 384.83M | 501.44M | 412.42M | 242.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 310.17M | 389.04M | 521.25M | 424.98M | 256.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -118.27M | -112.24M | -19.74M | -1.22M | -14.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -192.93M | -344.57M | -435.54M | -428.34M | -235.48M |
Black Stone Minerals Technical Analysis
Negative
14.08
Price Trends
14.94
Negative
14.33
Negative
13.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.23
Positive
30.76
Neutral
7.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BSM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.94, below the 50-day MA of 14.94, and above the 200-day MA of 13.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BSM.
Black Stone Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.99B | 9.38 | 27.16% | 9.94% | -0.75% | -29.40% | |
75 Outperform | $6.76B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 34.93% | -11.85% | |
68 Neutral | $4.18B | 15.28 | 3.06% | 5.78% | 32.31% | -122.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.82B | 54.12 | 1.69% | 8.18% | 1.51% | -78.38% | |
59 Neutral | $3.04B | 14.44 | 10.00% | ― | 31.67% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.08
1.36
10.69%
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
26.94
5.72
26.94%
SM
SM Energy
28.38
7.38
35.17%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
12.74
5.23
69.62%
BKV
BKV Corporation
28.18
11.16
65.57%
Black Stone Minerals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Black Stone Minerals Posts Solid Q4 Results, Maintains Payout
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Black Stone Minerals reported fourth-quarter 2025 mineral and royalty production of 30.9 MBoe/d and total production of 32.1 MBoe/d, alongside quarterly net income of $72.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $76.7 million. The Pa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.