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Kimbell Royalty Partners Lp (KRP)
NYSE:KRP

Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) AI Stock Analysis

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KRP

Kimbell Royalty Partners

(NYSE:KRP)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(7.97% Upside)
Kimbell Royalty Partners' strong financial performance and high dividend yield are significant positives. However, bearish technical indicators and challenges in revenue growth and broader market conditions weigh on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Royalty business model reduces operational risk
Kimbell’s royalty model generates revenue from mineral and royalty interests, avoiding drilling and operating capex. This structure produces durable cash receipts tied to production volumes and operator activity, lowering long-term operational and execution risk.
Very strong free cash flow growth
A near 10x free cash flow growth signal indicates material improvement in cash generation capacity, supporting sustained distributions, debt reduction, and bolt-on mineral acquisitions. Robust FCF improves financial flexibility over a multi-quarter horizon.
Conservative leverage and available liquidity
Modest net leverage and substantial undrawn revolver capacity provide resilience to downturns and fund acquisitions or distributions without aggressive equity issuance, supporting long-term capital strategy and operational continuity.
Negative Factors
Sharp decline in revenue growth
A dramatic drop in revenue growth undermines scalability and may pressure per-unit economics and cash available for distribution. Sustained revenue weakness can erode margins, limit reinvestment, and constrain long-term distribution sustainability.
Low return on equity limits shareholder returns
ROE under 5% suggests the partnership struggles to convert equity into meaningful profits. Persistently low ROE can lead to subpar long-term capital returns versus peers and may constrain the ability to fund growth organically or justify sustained high distributions.
Exposure to commodity cycles and sector slowdown
Kimbell’s royalties are directly tied to upstream activity and commodity prices. Prolonged industry slowdowns or lower prices reduce drilling, volumes, and royalties, creating structural volatility in revenue and cash flows over multiple quarters.

Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kimbell Royalty Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKimbell Royalty Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, acquires and owns mineral and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned mineral and royalty interests in approximately 11.4 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests in approximately 4.7 million gross acres. The company's mineral and royalty interests are located in 28 states and include ownership in approximately 122,000 gross wells, including approximately 46,000 wells in the Permian Basin. It serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyKimbell Royalty Partners generates revenue primarily through the collection of royalties on the production of oil and natural gas from the properties in which it holds mineral rights. The company earns a percentage of the revenue generated from the extraction of these resources, which is typically based on a fixed royalty rate. As oil and gas prices fluctuate, KRP's revenue can vary significantly, making it sensitive to market conditions. The company also engages in strategic acquisitions of additional mineral and royalty interests to expand its portfolio and increase its revenue potential. Partnerships with various operators in the energy sector, who are responsible for drilling and production, further enhance KRP's revenue streams by ensuring ongoing production from its holdings.

Kimbell Royalty Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted steady production growth and strong financial performance, with strategic capital distribution and a conservative approach to balance sheet management. However, challenges in the broader energy market and fluctuating production costs were noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Production Increase
Production increased organically by approximately 1% over Q2, exceeding the midpoint of 2025 guidance. Average production for the first 9 months of 2025 was 25,574 BOE per day.
Strong Financial Performance
Oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues totaled $76.8 million during Q3. Total consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $62.3 million.
Distribution and Return of Capital
Declared a Q3 2025 distribution of $0.35 per common unit, with approximately 100% expected to be a return of capital, enhancing after-tax return.
Conservative Balance Sheet
Net debt to trailing 12 months consolidated adjusted EBITDA was approximately 1.6x, with $176.5 million in undrawn capacity under the credit facility.
Stable Rig Activity
Active rig count remains strong with 86 rigs drilling across acreage, representing a market share of U.S. land rigs at 16%.
Negative Updates
General Slowdown in U.S. Oil and Natural Gas
Despite solid performance, there is a general slowdown among U.S. oil and natural gas operators, which poses ongoing challenges.
Fluctuating Production Costs
Marketing and other deductions expense was abnormally high this quarter at $1.80 per BOE, attributed to higher production growth in the Mid-Con.
Company Guidance
During the Kimbell Royalty Partners Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call, management provided several key metrics and guidance details. Production for the third quarter increased organically by approximately 1% over Q2, reaching an average of 25,574 BOE per day for the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the midpoint of their 2025 guidance. The company declared a distribution of $0.35 per common unit for Q3 2025, representing 75% of cash available for distribution, with the remaining 25% allocated to reducing outstanding borrowings. This quarter, oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues totaled $76.8 million, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA at $62.3 million. The active rig count stood at 86, representing a 16% market share of U.S. land rigs. Cash G&A expenses were $5.9 million, equating to $2.51 per BOE. The company reaffirmed its financial and operational guidance for 2025, maintaining a net debt to trailing 12 months consolidated adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.6x, with $176.5 million in undrawn capacity under its secured revolving credit facility as of September 30, 2025.

Kimbell Royalty Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kimbell Royalty Partners demonstrates strong cash flow generation and efficient cost management, with a solid gross profit margin and operational efficiency. However, challenges in revenue growth and low return on equity indicate areas for improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Kimbell Royalty Partners shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a strong gross profit margin of 75.18%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 11.94%, and the revenue growth rate has significantly declined by 95.5%, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. The EBIT margin of 20.18% and EBITDA margin of 48.42% are solid, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) is low at 4.87%, suggesting limited profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 43.22%, showing a stable capital structure with a reasonable proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis highlights a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 993.13%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 15.17, reflecting robust cash flow relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 9.14%, suggesting that a smaller portion of net income is converted into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue328.29M310.65M273.18M285.04M178.41M92.93M
Gross Profit244.75M155.12M156.38M218.71M131.13M38.55M
EBITDA155.15M172.47M209.54M197.76M88.79M-202.28M
Net Income36.58M12.25M66.45M111.93M33.86M-159.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.25B1.12B1.34B1.08B601.49M564.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments40.00M34.17M30.99M24.64M7.05M9.80M
Total Debt452.99M242.72M296.09M235.25M219.68M174.40M
Total Liabilities469.39M256.42M309.32M263.34M252.64M186.33M
Stockholders Equity700.36M780.22M871.27M602.62M329.60M301.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow22.49M250.71M-316.54M25.18M35.37M-26.35M
Operating Cash Flow245.81M250.92M174.27M166.64M91.44M62.25M
Investing Cash Flow-223.44M-209.89K-246.68M-374.72M-55.57M-90.83M
Financing Cash Flow-17.07M-247.53M78.38M226.06M-38.62M24.18M

Kimbell Royalty Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.43
Price Trends
50DMA
12.33
Positive
100DMA
12.86
Positive
200DMA
13.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.33
Negative
RSI
71.62
Negative
STOCH
90.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.45, above the 50-day MA of 12.33, and above the 200-day MA of 13.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KRP.

Kimbell Royalty Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.97B12.226.68%17.48%9.33%
76
Outperform
$3.13B13.0623.90%9.94%-0.75%-29.40%
72
Outperform
$1.23B22.5614.72%12.53%-12.51%-59.55%
66
Neutral
$1.04B13.19986.82%7.51%-14.84%-16.23%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
$1.64B-75.154.73%13.84%-2.71%-113.80%
54
Neutral
$60.06M28.444.93%6.02%18.14%-68.41%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
13.43
-0.66
-4.68%
DMLP
Dorchester Minerals
25.41
-3.47
-12.02%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
71.36
9.19
14.78%
PVL
Permianville Royalty
1.82
0.48
36.02%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.77
1.49
11.22%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
11.69
-3.59
-23.49%

Kimbell Royalty Partners Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kimbell Royalty Partners Enhances Credit Agreement Structure
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

On December 16, 2025, Kimbell Royalty Partners entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, enhancing its financial structure with a senior secured reserve-based revolving credit facility of up to $1.5 billion and extending the maturity date to December 16, 2030. This agreement, backed by the company’s oil and natural gas assets, includes provisions for interest rates, borrowing base redeterminations, and financial covenants, which are crucial for maintaining financial stability and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (KRP) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kimbell Royalty Partners stock, see the KRP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Kimbell Royalty Partners Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Kimbell Royalty Partners announced its financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a run-rate daily production of 25,530 Boe/d, which exceeded the midpoint of guidance. The company reported Q3 revenues of $76.8 million and a net income of $22.3 million. Kimbell also declared a cash distribution of $0.35 per common unit, reflecting a 10.7% annualized yield, and plans to use 25% of its cash available for distribution to repay debt. Despite a general slowdown in the U.S. oil and natural gas sector, Kimbell’s production increased organically by 1% from Q2 to Q3 2025, demonstrating resilience and effective operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (KRP) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kimbell Royalty Partners stock, see the KRP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025