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Civitas Resources (CIVI)
NYSE:CIVI

Civitas Resources (CIVI) AI Stock Analysis

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CIVI

Civitas Resources

(NYSE:CIVI)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
â–²(13.22% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (especially cash flow strength) and very compelling valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Offsetting these positives are mixed technical signals with a weaker medium-term trend, plus merger-related execution and legal overhang despite clear progress toward closing.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
A near-term surge in free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it supports capex funding, dividend sustainability, and the ability to pay down debt or execute strategic divestitures. Strong FCF cushions the business through commodity cycles and funds long-term value creation.
High margins and operational efficiency
Sustained gross and EBITDA margins reflect competitive operational execution in the DJ Basin and technological advantages in extraction. Durable margins improve resilience to price swings, enable reinvestment, and underpin free cash flow generation over multiple quarters.
Strategic merger creating scale and synergies
The SM Energy merger materially alters the company's structural position: scale across U.S. shale basins, targeted $200–300M annual synergies, and >$1B planned divestitures should boost free cash flow, reduce unit costs and improve capital allocation over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
An elevated debt-to-equity ratio reduces financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity, constraining the firm's ability to fund growth or weather prolonged low-price environments. Higher leverage can limit strategic options and amplify downside risk over the coming quarters.
Recent revenue and EPS deterioration
Material yoy declines in revenue and EPS signal weakening near-term operating momentum and profitability pressure. If sustained, lower top-line and earnings trends could reduce internal funding capacity, slow deleveraging, and make margin maintenance and dividend targets harder to sustain.
Shareholder litigation and disclosure risk around merger
Ongoing lawsuits and disclosure claims create execution risk for the SM merger: potential delays, supplemental disclosures, legal costs and distracting management time can impede integration planning and the timely realization of projected synergies over the next few quarters.

Civitas Resources (CIVI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Civitas Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCivitas Resources, Inc., an exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region, primarily in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin of Colorado. As of December 31,2021, it had proved reserves 397.7 MMBoe comprising 143.6 MMbbls of crude oil, 106.0 MMbbls of natural gas liquids, and 888.5 Bcf of natural gas. The company was formerly known as Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc. Civitas Resources, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyCivitas Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its production sites. The company employs a revenue model that includes selling its products directly to refiners, marketers, and other end-users in the energy market. Key revenue streams consist of the sales of oil and gas at prevailing market prices, which can be influenced by factors such as global oil prices, demand fluctuations, and regional supply dynamics. Additionally, Civitas may enter into long-term contracts or spot market transactions to optimize pricing. The company also benefits from operational efficiencies and technological advancements that reduce extraction costs and enhance production rates. Strategic partnerships with midstream companies for transportation and processing services further bolster its earnings by ensuring that produced resources are delivered to market effectively. Overall, Civitas's financial performance is closely tied to commodity price trends and operational excellence in its drilling and production activities.

Civitas Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant operational achievements and financial strategies that aim to improve shareholder value, including aggressive capital returns and efficiency gains. However, challenges such as leadership changes and concerns regarding market performance are noted.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Enhanced Capital Return Program
Civitas Resources announced a reinstated and aggressive capital returns plan with a buyback authorization exceeding 25% of its market cap.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Drilling and completion efficiencies realized in each basin resulted in reduced well costs, with reductions of 7% in Delaware, 5% in Midland, and 3% in DJ.
Strong Second Quarter Results
Oil volumes grew 6% quarter-over-quarter, cash operating expenses fell by more than 10%, and the company generated nearly $750 million in adjusted EBITDA and over $120 million in adjusted free cash flow.
Asset Divestitures
Civitas significantly exceeded its target for non-core asset sales with agreements to divest $435 million in non-core DJ Basin assets, achieving a 4x multiple on 2026 cash flow.
Increased Hedging for Risk Reduction
The company increased its hedges to approximately 60% on oil for the remainder of the year, which is about double the usual levels.
Negative Updates
CEO Transition
The departure of the former CEO, Chris Doyle, and the appointment of an interim CEO, indicating potential leadership instability.
Challenges in Market Performance
Concerns about the current share price and the company's focus on improving its report card as seen in the stock value, reflecting market challenges.
Company Guidance
During the Civitas Resources second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company outlined several key metrics and strategic initiatives. They emphasized their commitment to maximizing free cash flow, with a target to achieve $4.5 billion in net debt by year's end, supported by a 60% hedge on oil for the remainder of the year. The company also highlighted a $750 million share repurchase authorization, representing about 28% of their market cap, and plans to allocate 50% of free cash flow after the base dividend to share buybacks. Operationally, Civitas reported oil volume growth of 6% quarter-over-quarter, with cash operating expenses down by more than 10% on a unit basis. They achieved nearly $750 million in adjusted EBITDA and over $120 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter. Additionally, they have executed asset divestitures worth $435 million, exceeding their target, and are on track with $100 million in cost optimization initiatives. The call also introduced Wouter van Kempen as the interim CEO following Chris Doyle's departure, emphasizing a focus on execution, performance, and cost leadership.

Civitas Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid profitability and operational efficiency with strong gross/EBITDA margins and strong cash generation (TTM free cash flow growth of 78.71%). Offsetting factors include a modest TTM revenue decline (2.15%), increased leverage (higher debt-to-equity), and some pressure on profitability versus prior periods.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Civitas Resources shows strong gross and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations and cost management. However, the recent revenue decline of 2.15% in TTM suggests potential challenges in maintaining growth. The net profit margin is healthy, but lower than previous periods, reflecting some pressure on profitability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has decreased compared to previous years, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Civitas Resources demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant increase in free cash flow growth of 78.71% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating effective conversion of earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, suggesting potential reinvestment or cost pressures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.71B5.20B3.47B3.79B930.61M218.09M
Gross Profit2.06B2.14B1.67B2.48B569.36M160.47M
EBITDA3.26B3.60B2.34B2.50B488.41M177.58M
Net Income638.11M838.72M784.29M1.25B178.92M103.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.11B14.94B14.10B7.97B6.74B1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments56.00M75.83M1.12B768.03M254.45M24.74M
Total Debt5.14B4.49B4.96B436.19M551.06M31.82M
Total Liabilities8.43B8.32B7.92B2.60B2.09B137.56M
Stockholders Equity6.68B6.63B6.18B5.37B4.65B1.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow933.65M893.36M731.52M1.41B123.10M95.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.74B2.87B2.24B2.48B274.60M158.80M
Investing Cash Flow-2.33B-2.67B-5.24B-1.31B73.55M-63.80M
Financing Cash Flow-396.62M-1.24B3.36B-657.37M-118.44M-81.25M

Civitas Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price27.38
Price Trends
50DMA
27.62
Negative
100DMA
28.81
Negative
200DMA
28.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
51.41
Neutral
STOCH
64.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CIVI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.86, below the 50-day MA of 27.62, and below the 200-day MA of 28.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CIVI.

Civitas Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$2.34B3.989.56%7.36%-6.52%-32.26%
72
Outperform
$2.44B14.007.95%8.18%1.51%-78.38%
72
Outperform
$4.64B2.9816.58%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
71
Outperform
$4.78B12.1711.06%3.56%33.85%-34.08%
66
Neutral
$3.21B-66.460.64%5.78%32.31%-122.30%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$4.30B42.952.01%4.15%-13.92%-68.34%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CIVI
Civitas Resources
27.38
-19.45
-41.53%
MUR
Murphy Oil
30.09
5.55
22.62%
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
25.00
-8.52
-25.41%
SM
SM Energy
19.47
-16.57
-45.98%
CRC
California Resources Corp
53.50
6.63
14.15%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
9.77
-4.71
-32.53%

Civitas Resources Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Civitas Stockholders Approve All-Stock Merger with SM Energy
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 27, 2026, stockholders of Civitas Resources and SM Energy overwhelmingly approved all proposals required to complete their previously announced all-stock merger, under which Civitas will become a wholly owned subsidiary of SM Energy and each Civitas share will be converted into 1.45 SM Energy shares. Approximately 82.9% of outstanding Civitas shares and 76.5% of outstanding SM Energy shares were represented at their respective special meetings, with more than 97% of votes cast in favor of the transaction, clearing a key hurdle for the deal, which is expected to close on January 30, 2026, and create a larger, more diversified shale producer trading under the SM Energy name with enhanced scale, a stronger competitive position in top U.S. shale basins and the potential for significant synergies and increased free cash flow for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Civitas Resources faces shareholder lawsuits over SM merger
Negative
Jan 20, 2026

On November 2, 2025, Civitas Resources agreed to be acquired by SM Energy in a two-step merger that would first make Civitas a wholly owned SM subsidiary and then fold it into SM Energy, and on December 5, 2025 SM filed a registration statement that became effective on December 19, 2025, leading to the issuance of a joint proxy statement/prospectus in late December. Since that filing, two Civitas stockholders have brought lawsuits in New York in early January 2026 and several others have sent demand letters alleging disclosure deficiencies in the merger materials and seeking to block or unwind the transaction or obtain damages, prompting Civitas—while denying any wrongdoing or need for further disclosure—to issue supplemental financial and background information on the deal and its projections in order to reduce litigation risk and avoid delays to shareholder votes scheduled for January 27, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Civitas Resources Gains Antitrust Clearance for SM Energy Merger
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 18, 2025, Civitas Resources, Inc. received early termination of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act for its pending merger with SM Energy Company, satisfying a key regulatory condition required for closing the transaction. The clearance marks a significant step toward completion of the deal, reducing antitrust uncertainty around the combination and potentially accelerating Civitas’s efforts to grow its operational footprint and competitive position in the U.S. oil and gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Civitas Resources Approves New Executive Severance Plan
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Civitas Resources‘ Board of Directors approved a new Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan, contingent on the completion of a merger with SM Energy Company. This amended plan introduces changes such as a 30-month change in control protection period for certain executives and revised severance calculations, impacting the company’s executive compensation structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Civitas Resources Announces Merger Details with SM Energy
Positive
Nov 17, 2025

On November 17, 2025, Civitas Resources and SM Energy announced additional details about their planned merger, which is expected to enhance their operations and market position. The merger aims to generate annual synergies of $200 million to $300 million, with a net present value of $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion, representing 22% to 32% of the pro-forma market cap. The merger will also result in a leadership team with significant industry experience and a board of directors comprising members from both companies. The companies plan to divest over $1 billion within the first year post-merger to strengthen their balance sheet and accelerate stockholder returns. The merger has received positive responses from rating agencies, reflecting confidence in the post-merger outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Civitas Resources Merges with SM Energy
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

On November 2, 2025, Civitas Resources, Inc. and SM Energy Company entered into a merger agreement where Civitas will merge into SM Energy, resulting in Civitas becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of SM Energy. This merger will lead to the conversion of Civitas shares into SM Energy shares at a ratio of 1.45:1, and the combined entity will undergo governance restructuring, including changes to the board of directors and committees. The merger is subject to various conditions, including stockholder approvals and regulatory clearances, and is expected to enhance the operational and strategic positioning of the combined company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Civitas Resources and SM Energy Announce Merger Agreement
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 2, 2025, Civitas Resources, Inc. and SM Energy Company announced a merger agreement, forming a combined entity valued at approximately $12.8 billion. This merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will create a leading independent oil and gas company with a premier portfolio in U.S. shale basins, enhancing free cash flow and stockholder value. The merger is anticipated to generate significant synergies, improve financial metrics, and maintain sustainable dividends, while advancing commitments to sustainability and environmental stewardship.

The most recent analyst rating on (CIVI) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Civitas Resources stock, see the CIVI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026