Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.15B
• Dividend Yield: 8.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 1.51%
• EPS Growth: -78.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 97,602,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,767,318
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,210,601
• PEG Ratio: -0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.84
• 1Y Price Target: $28.33
• Price Target Upside: 30.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.34B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(24.71% Upside)

Northern Oil And Gas receives a solid score of 72, driven by a strong valuation and positive corporate events. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, though financial performance presents some risks due to declining revenue and cash flow challenges. The earnings call provides a positive future outlook, further supporting the stock's potential.

Positive Factors

Strategic Asset Acquisition

The acquisition of Ohio Utica Shale Assets enhances NOG's natural gas profile and positions it for substantial production growth and cash flow increases, supporting long-term growth.

Strong Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position provides financial flexibility, enabling NOG to pursue strategic investments and manage operational challenges effectively.

Increased Production Guidance

Increased production guidance reflects operational efficiency and strategic focus on low breakeven activities, enhancing revenue potential and market competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth suggests challenges in maintaining market momentum, potentially impacting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow growth indicates difficulties in converting income into cash, which may constrain investment capabilities and financial stability.

Increased Lease Operating Expenses

Rising lease operating expenses can erode profit margins and reduce operational efficiency, impacting the company's ability to maintain cost competitiveness.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company typically receives revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its operated and non-operated wells. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. NOG also benefits from its partnership model, often acquiring interests in properties that are operated by other companies, allowing it to reduce operational risks and capital expenditures. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility in the oil and gas markets, locking in prices for future production to stabilize cash flows. Significant partnerships with operators in its key areas enhance its ability to grow production and reserves, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas exhibits mixed financial performance. Revenue and profit margins are declining, and free cash flow challenges present risks. However, the balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage.

Income Statement

Northern Oil And Gas has shown mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate at -1.33%, reflecting challenges in maintaining revenue momentum. Gross profit margin has decreased to 27.61% from 38.64% in the previous year, indicating increased cost pressures. Net profit margin has also declined to 8.00% from 24.05%, suggesting reduced profitability. However, the company maintains a healthy EBITDA margin of 50.47%, showcasing strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, indicating manageable leverage levels. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 7.73% from 22.42%, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 40.84%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet shows a stable but slightly weakened financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has shown a significant negative growth rate of -433.31% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.92, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential issues in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.19B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
Gross Profit	764.58M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
EBITDA	1.23B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
Net Income	181.19M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.49B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.65M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
Total Debt	2.35B	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
Total Liabilities	3.25B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
Stockholders Equity	2.24B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-166.69M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
Operating Cash Flow	1.48B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.61B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
Financing Cash Flow	121.38M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.92, below the 50-day MA of 22.21, and below the 200-day MA of 25.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIVI	73 Outperform	$2.35B	3.95	9.56%	7.36%	-6.52%	-32.26%
NOG	72 Outperform	$2.15B	12.21	7.95%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.18B	2.98	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.86B	11.83	23.90%	9.94%	-0.75%	-29.40%
CRGY	66 Neutral	$2.71B	-56.46	0.64%	5.78%	32.31%	-122.30%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BKV	62 Neutral	$2.60B	53.69	2.62%	―	31.67%	―

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil and Gas Acquires Antero Assets for Growth

On December 5, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. and Infinity Natural Resources entered into agreements to jointly acquire upstream and midstream assets from Antero Resources Corporation and Antero Midstream Corporation for a total of $1.2 billion. Northern will hold a 49% stake in these assets, which include significant oil and gas properties in Ohio’s Utica Shale, and expects substantial production growth and cash flow increases through the end of the decade. This acquisition enhances Northern’s natural gas profile and positions it for long-term growth, with Infinity operating the assets.

Northern Oil And Gas Secures New Credit Facility

On November 5, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into a new Revolving Credit Facility with Wells Fargo Bank, replacing its previous facility from June 7, 2022. This agreement, maturing in 2030, sets an initial commitment of $1.6 billion and a Borrowing Base of $1.8 billion, with semiannual redeterminations. The facility includes covenants and conditions that limit the company’s financial and operational activities, ensuring compliance with financial ratios and securing obligations with a first priority security interest in the company’s assets.

Northern Oil and Gas Issues $725M Senior Notes

On October 1, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. issued $725 million in 7.875% Senior Notes due 2033, with interest payable semi-annually starting April 2026. The company also announced the results of its tender offer for its 8.125% Senior Notes due 2028, accepting $684.943 million of these notes for payment using proceeds from the new 2033 Notes issuance. This financial maneuver is expected to impact the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial flexibility.

Northern Oil And Gas Prices $725M Senior Notes

On September 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of a private placement of $725 million in new 7.875% senior notes due 2033. The proceeds from this offering will be used to fund the purchase and potential redemption of the company’s outstanding 8.125% senior notes due 2028, as well as for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial flexibility.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces Cash Tender Offer

On September 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the commencement of a cash tender offer for any and all of its outstanding 8.125% senior notes due 2028. The offer is contingent upon the successful completion of a concurrent bond offering and the receipt of net proceeds. Additionally, the company plans to offer $725 million in new senior notes due 2033 in a private offering, subject to market conditions. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially impact its financial stability and market positioning.