Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: 7.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 2.98%
• EPS Growth: 7.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.37
• Shares Outstanding: 97,594,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,808,301
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,884,616
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.88
• 1Y Price Target: $32.75
• Price Target Upside: 40.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(11.88% Upside)

Northern Oil And Gas has a solid financial foundation with strong profitability and attractive valuation metrics. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and high leverage poses a risk. Strategic initiatives and strong free cash flow are positive, but market volatility and operational challenges need careful management.

Positive Factors

Dividend and Yield

Last month, the quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.

Financial Performance

NOG started 2025 off strong with Adj EBTIDA of $435mn beating Consensus and BofAe.

Production Performance

2Q25 beats on record production from Appalachia.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.

Share Performance

Shares are down approximately 5% year-to-date compared to SMID E&P peers, which are up 4%.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its properties. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of these hydrocarbons, where it earns income from the extraction and sale of these resources at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas, as well as revenues from joint venture arrangements where Northern Oil and Gas partners with other companies to develop specific properties. Additionally, the company benefits from cost management strategies and operational efficiencies, which enhance profitability. Significant partnerships with other operators and service providers also contribute to its ability to capitalize on production opportunities and market fluctuations, thus bolstering its earnings potential.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong financial recovery and growth, with significant revenue and income growth, improved financial stability, and robust cash flow management. However, fluctuating EBIT and EBITDA margins and past high leverage periods pose some risks.

Income Statement

Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.21B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
Gross Profit	856.25M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
EBITDA	1.79B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
Net Income	647.68M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.67B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	33.58M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
Total Debt	2.31B	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
Total Liabilities	3.27B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
Stockholders Equity	2.40B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-121.41M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.53B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
Financing Cash Flow	109.42M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.80, below the 50-day MA of 27.95, and below the 200-day MA of 31.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SM	72 Outperform	$2.98B	3.67	19.27%	3.14%	28.20%	1.63%
NOG	71 Outperform	$2.26B	3.81	27.17%	7.49%	2.98%	7.94%
CIVI	71 Outperform	$3.12B	4.26	11.31%	9.19%	0.24%	-9.19%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.53B	10.35	24.31%	11.83%	-8.06%	-22.61%
CRGY	69 Neutral	$2.37B	23.27	0.70%	5.17%	32.84%	-755.17%
BKV	62 Neutral	$1.81B	―	-1.36%	―	13.20%	55.44%
Sector *	56 Neutral	£7.39B	-1.87	-5.53%	6.52%	6.34%	-82.38%

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil and Gas Completes $200M Convertible Notes Placement

On June 17, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. completed a private placement of $200 million in 3.65% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, including an option for additional notes exercised by the initial purchasers. The issuance, under a purchase agreement with Morgan Stanley, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and reduce potential stock dilution through capped call transactions, potentially impacting stakeholders by increasing the company’s leverage and altering its capital structure.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces Convertible Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of its upsized offering of $175 million in 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029, providing the company with strategic financial flexibility. The proceeds will be used for stock repurchase and hedge overlay to mitigate share dilution, with implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces $150M Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced its intention to offer $150 million in additional 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029 to qualified institutional buyers. This move is aimed at providing the company with strategic flexibility, with proceeds intended for stock repurchase and hedging against share dilution. The offering is part of a broader financial strategy to manage debt and enhance shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stock performance.

Northern Oil and Gas Elects New Directors

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas company announced the election of several directors, including Bahram Akradi, Lisa Bromiley, and Roy Easley, among others. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. They also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.