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Northern Oil And Gas (NOG)
NYSE:NOG
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Northern Oil And Gas
(NYSE:NOG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(20.97% Upside)
Northern Oil And Gas has a solid financial foundation with strong revenue growth and profitability. The valuation is attractive with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Despite some operational challenges and market volatility, the company's strategic focus on acquisitions and liquidity management supports a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Consistent free cash flow generation over multiple quarters highlights the company's ability to sustain operations and fund growth without relying heavily on external financing.
Debt Management and Liquidity
Strong liquidity and effective debt management enhance financial flexibility, allowing the company to navigate market volatility and invest in strategic opportunities.
Resilient Business Model
A diversified portfolio across multiple basins provides stability and reduces reliance on any single region, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Decreased Activity in Williston
Reduced activity in a key production area can impact overall output and revenue, potentially affecting the company's growth trajectory and market position.
Higher Lease Operating Costs
Increased operating costs can pressure margins and profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain cost efficiency and competitive pricing.
Noncash Impairment Charge
Significant impairment charges reflect asset value reductions, impacting financial statements and potentially limiting future investment capacity.
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.51B
Dividend Yield7.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.2
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth2.98%
EPS Growth7.94%
CountryUS
Employees49
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.37
Shares Outstanding97,594,680
10 Day Avg. Volume2,369,855
30 Day Avg. Volume1,727,083
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)1.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.71
P/FCF Ratio-13.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.29Price Target Upside22.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its properties. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of these hydrocarbons, where it earns income from the extraction and sale of these resources at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas, as well as revenues from joint venture arrangements where Northern Oil and Gas partners with other companies to develop specific properties. Additionally, the company benefits from cost management strategies and operational efficiencies, which enhance profitability. Significant partnerships with other operators and service providers also contribute to its ability to capitalize on production opportunities and market fluctuations, thus bolstering its earnings potential.
Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call conveyed a mix of positive and negative developments. While the company demonstrated resilience through its diverse portfolio and strong free cash flow generation, challenges such as decreased activity in the Williston Basin, higher operating costs, and a significant noncash impairment charge were noted. The company's strategic focus on acquisitions and maintaining liquidity are promising, yet the external pressures of lower commodity prices and market volatility continue to pose challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Resilient Business Model
NOG's business model has shown resilience, with a strong contribution from Uinta and Appalachian Basins. The company's diverse portfolio and disciplined approach have supported cash flow despite lower prices.
Strong Free Cash Flow
Generated over $126 million in free cash flow this quarter, marking the 22nd consecutive quarter of positive cash flow, exceeding $1.8 billion over that time period.
Ground Game Success
NOG closed 22 transactions in Q2, up from 7 deals in Q1, for a total of 4.8 net wells and over 2,600 net acres across all the basins.
Improved Gas Production
Record gas volumes of approximately 343 mmcf per day, with the first batch of Appalachian JV wells coming online.
Debt Management and Liquidity
Maintained over $1.1 billion in liquidity and completed a reopening of the 2029 convertible notes, generating incremental annual interest and dividend savings of approximately $5 million.
Negative Updates
Decreased Activity in Williston
Lower activity in Williston led to a sequential decrease in oil production by 2%.
Higher Lease Operating Costs
Lease operating costs per BOE rose by 6% to $9.95 due to higher expenses in Williston and Permian.
Noncash Impairment Charge
Recorded a $115.6 million noncash impairment charge due to lower oil prices.
Deferrals and Shut-ins
1 net well deferred and approximately 3,800 barrels per day shut-in due to pricing pressure from a single operator.
Revised Guidance
Revised guidance on differentials, LOE, production taxes, and CapEx, indicating adjustments to previous expectations.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, NOG reported significant financial metrics and strategic decisions. The company generated over $126 million in free cash flow, with an additional $50 million pending from a legal settlement, marking their 22nd consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow and exceeding $1.8 billion over that period. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $440.4 million, including the legal settlement. Total average daily production was approximately 134,000 BOE per day, with oil production at about 77,000 barrels per day. NOG revised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $925 million to $1.05 billion, a reduction of approximately $137.5 million at the midpoint. The company's strategic focus included reducing near-term spending, planning discretionary capital outlays for acquisitions, and maintaining a conservative financial approach to navigate volatile commodity prices. NOG's disciplined capital allocation and non-operated model were emphasized as key drivers for navigating the current market environment.Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Northern Oil And Gas shows strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by effective cost management and leverage improvements. However, challenges with free cash flow generation could impact its ability to finance growth and manage debt.Income Statement
Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 62.4%, indicating robust expansion. The company maintains healthy profitability with a net profit margin of 27.38% and an EBIT margin of 43.77%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, which could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.98, showing better leverage management compared to past years. Return on equity is strong at 25.77%, reflecting efficient use of equity. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks in volatile market conditions.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is robust, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.96. However, the negative free cash flow and its growth rate indicate challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights potential issues in cash generation relative to earnings.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.22B | 2.16B | 1.91B | 1.99B | 975.09M | 324.07M |
| Gross Profit | 833.32M | 835.98M | 913.86M | 1.32B | 586.49M | 15.83M |
| EBITDA | 1.77B | 1.58B | 1.62B | 1.11B | 206.44M | -685.58M |
| Net Income | 608.71M | 520.31M | 922.97M | 773.24M | 6.36M | -906.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.70B | 5.60B | 4.48B | 2.88B | 1.52B | 872.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.86M | 8.93M | 8.20M | 2.53M | 9.52M | 1.43M |
| Total Debt | 2.37B | 2.37B | 1.84B | 1.53B | 803.44M | 944.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.29B | 3.28B | 2.44B | 2.13B | 1.31B | 1.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.41B | 2.32B | 2.05B | 745.26M | 215.13M | -223.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -233.33M | -283.19M | -661.93M | -431.36M | -197.32M | 47.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.41B | 1.18B | 928.42M | 396.47M | 331.69M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -1.67B | -1.86B | -1.40B | -634.43M | -283.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 208.81M | 266.83M | 684.69M | 467.37M | 246.06M | -62.40M |
Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis
Negative
24.80
Price Trends
25.36
Negative
26.76
Negative
28.67
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
44.93
Neutral
14.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.33, below the 50-day MA of 25.36, and below the 200-day MA of 28.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOG.
Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.28B | 4.11 | 11.14% | 5.64% | 0.24% | -9.19% | |
76 Outperform | $2.51B | 4.24 | 27.17% | 7.18% | 2.98% | 7.94% | |
72 Outperform | $2.92B | 3.53 | ― | 3.14% | 28.20% | 1.63% | |
70 Outperform | $2.81B | 11.38 | ― | 10.75% | -8.06% | -22.61% | |
68 Neutral | $2.31B | -50.28 | 0.81% | 5.38% | 32.84% | -755.17% | |
61 Neutral | $2.01B | -102.16 | -1.17% | ― | 13.20% | 55.44% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
24.66
-10.13
-29.12%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
35.44
-13.77
-27.98%
SM
SM Energy
25.44
-15.41
-37.72%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
13.26
-0.44
-3.21%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
9.01
-2.83
-23.90%
BKV
BKV Corporation
23.13
4.97
27.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.