Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.17B
• Dividend Yield: 5.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 24.27%
• EPS Growth: 5.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.33
• Shares Outstanding: 98,704,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,923,959
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,614,201
• PEG Ratio: -0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.30
• 1Y Price Target: $34.81
• Price Target Upside: 8.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(15.05%Upside)

Northern Oil And Gas is performing robustly, with strong financials, favorable technical indicators, and attractive valuation metrics. The company's strategic debt management and cash flow generation are significant strengths. Despite some market volatility challenges, recent corporate actions provide strategic flexibility, supporting a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Dividend

Last month, the quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.

Financial Performance

NOG started 2025 off strong with Adj EBTIDA of $435mn beating Consensus and BofAe.

Natural Gas Production

NOG continues to benefit from its natural gas position with production coming in between 315 – 319 mmcfd, above consensus of 300 mmcfd.

Negative Factors

Guidance

NOG announced 2025 guidance which fell short of expectations, with capex ~3% above consensus while oil volume guidance was ~5% below.

Logistical Issues

Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.

Oil Production

Preliminary 4Q24 oil production of ~78.7 mbbl/d was ~2% below consensus/MSUSAe.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue predominantly through the sale of oil and natural gas produced from its properties. The company holds non-operated working interests, which means it partners with operating companies that manage the day-to-day operations of its wells. NOG earns a share of the production revenue based on its ownership percentage in each well. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, NOG may engage in strategic acquisitions and divestitures to optimize its portfolio, which can also contribute to its revenue streams. Partnerships with experienced operators and a focus on cost management are key factors that enhance its profitability.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong financial recovery with impressive revenue growth and improved financial stability. The company has effectively managed its debt and cash flow, contributing to a solid financial position. However, fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate some variability in operating efficiency.

Income Statement

Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.40B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
	Gross Profit
856.25M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
	EBIT
1.01B	837.83M	1.12B	853.19M	77.96M	-841.24M
	EBITDA
1.79B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
647.68M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
33.58M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
	Total Assets
5.67B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
	Total Debt
0.00	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
	Net Debt
2.28B	2.36B	1.83B	1.52B	793.92M	943.41M
	Total Liabilities
3.27B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
	Stockholders Equity
2.40B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-121.41M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.42B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.53B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
	Financing Cash Flow
109.42M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 32.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.46, above the 50-day MA of 26.15, and below the 200-day MA of 33.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIVI	81 Outperform	$3.09B	3.82	12.73%	6.00%	22.14%	5.69%
NOG	80 Outperform	$3.17B	5.01	29.41%	5.60%	24.27%	5.01%
VAL	76 Outperform	$3.31B	10.93	14.66%	―	30.82%	-62.91%
STR	76 Outperform	$3.09B	39.36	2.86%	6.83%	7.18%	―
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.56B	3.50	-4.45%	10.15%	0.79%	-49.51%
CRGY	56 Neutral	$3.11B	23.27	-3.54%	4.91%	31.58%	-114.70%
PTEN	53 Neutral	$2.52B	―	-24.93%	4.90%	5.82%	-481.39%

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil And Gas Announces Convertible Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of its upsized offering of $175 million in 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029, providing the company with strategic financial flexibility. The proceeds will be used for stock repurchase and hedge overlay to mitigate share dilution, with implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces $150M Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced its intention to offer $150 million in additional 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029 to qualified institutional buyers. This move is aimed at providing the company with strategic flexibility, with proceeds intended for stock repurchase and hedging against share dilution. The offering is part of a broader financial strategy to manage debt and enhance shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil and Gas Elects New Directors

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas company announced the election of several directors, including Bahram Akradi, Lisa Bromiley, and Roy Easley, among others. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. They also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.