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Northern Oil And Gas (NOG)
NYSE:NOG
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Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

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NOG

Northern Oil And Gas

(NYSE:NOG)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(11.07%Upside)
Northern Oil And Gas scores well due to its strong financial recovery and attractive valuation. While technical indicators are mixed, the company's robust earnings performance and strategic corporate events bolster its overall appeal, particularly in addressing market volatility.
Positive Factors
Dividends and Returns
Last month, the quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.
Financial Performance
NOG started 2025 off strong with Adj EBTIDA of $435mn beating Consensus and BofAe.
Production and Operations
NOG continues to benefit from its natural gas position with production coming in between 315 – 319 mmcfd, above consensus of 300 mmcfd.
Negative Factors
Guidance and Expectations
NOG announced 2025 guidance which fell short of expectations, with capex ~3% above consensus while oil volume guidance was ~5% below.
Market Performance
Shares are down approximately 5% year-to-date compared to SMID E&P peers, which are up 4%.
Operational Challenges
Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.

Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is a leading independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. Operating primarily in the Williston Basin, which encompasses parts of North Dakota and Montana, NOG focuses on non-operated working interests in oil and gas leases, leveraging partnerships with operators to optimize production and asset value. The company aims to maximize shareholder value through strategic asset management and disciplined financial practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Oil and Gas generates revenue predominantly through the sale of oil and natural gas produced from its properties. The company holds non-operated working interests, which means it partners with operating companies that manage the day-to-day operations of its wells. NOG earns a share of the production revenue based on its ownership percentage in each well. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, NOG may engage in strategic acquisitions and divestitures to optimize its portfolio, which can also contribute to its revenue streams. Partnerships with experienced operators and a focus on cost management are key factors that enhance its profitability.

Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 21.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance, with record production and cash flow metrics. However, significant market volatility and commodity price challenges pose risks, particularly impacting larger M&A activities and necessitating cautious capital allocation. The company's adaptability and strategic approach in navigating the current environment are emphasized.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Low Leverage
Generated $136 million in free cash flow and $94 million after dividends, with leverage remaining extremely low, offering a cushion to navigate market shifts.
Record First Quarter Production
Total average daily production was approximately 135,000 BOE per day, up 2.5% versus Q4, with oil production coming in flat versus Q4 at approximately 79,000 barrels per day. Year-over-year total production increased by 13%, with oil production up 12%.
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was approximately $435 million, marking a record for NOG.
Increased Well Activity and Efficiency
Elected 96% of well proposals with expected returns above hurdle rate, saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths resulting in a 10% decrease to normalized well costs.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Commodity Price Challenges
The recent market volatility and changing outlook for commodities present challenges, with potential impacts on activity levels and capital spending.
Oil and Gas Realization Challenges
Oil differentials came in at the high-end of guided range at $5.79 per barrel, reflecting disruptions and seasonal widening, with expected improvements uncertain.
Potential Slowdown in Larger M&A
A relative slowdown in larger M&A expected due to widened bid-ask spreads in volatile market conditions.
Company Guidance
During the NOG's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance emphasizing its adaptability in response to market volatility and commodity price fluctuations. NOG reported producing approximately 135,000 BOE per day, with oil production at about 79,000 barrels daily. The company generated $136 million in free cash flow and $94 million after dividends, with an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $435 million, marking a record for NOG. Over 60% of expected production is hedged for 2025, ensuring resilience amid commodity cycles. The call highlighted a $850 million to $900 million maintenance capital range, and capital allocation focused on risk-adjusted returns, debt reduction, and share buybacks. NOG remains committed to leveraging market downturns to create long-term value, as evidenced by past successes.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved financial stability. The transition from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability and significant improvements in the balance sheet, alongside robust cash flow generation, highlight the company's strong financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.16B1.91B1.99B975.09M324.07M
Gross Profit835.98M913.86M1.32B586.49M15.83M
EBITDA1.58B1.62B1.11B206.44M-685.58M
Net Income520.31M922.97M773.24M6.36M-906.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.60B4.48B2.88B1.52B872.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.93M8.20M2.53M9.52M1.43M
Total Debt2.37B1.84B1.53B803.44M944.84M
Total Liabilities3.28B2.44B2.13B1.31B1.10B
Stockholders Equity2.32B2.05B745.26M215.13M-223.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-283.19M-661.93M-431.36M-197.32M47.76M
Operating Cash Flow1.41B1.18B928.42M396.47M331.69M
Investing Cash Flow-1.67B-1.86B-1.40B-634.43M-283.93M
Financing Cash Flow266.83M684.69M467.37M246.06M-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.71
Price Trends
50DMA
28.68
Positive
100DMA
27.36
Positive
200DMA
32.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Negative
RSI
55.88
Neutral
STOCH
72.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.88, above the 50-day MA of 28.68, and below the 200-day MA of 32.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.88B3.5712.73%9.18%22.14%5.69%
76
Outperform
$2.81B4.4429.41%5.86%9.73%5.01%
72
Outperform
$3.16B3.8720.28%2.78%26.04%11.96%
70
Outperform
$2.64B13.6519.93%12.01%-12.71%-39.85%
60
Neutral
$3.03B23.27-3.54%5.04%31.58%-114.70%
52
Neutral
C$2.98B-1.53-3.48%6.50%3.05%-49.39%
49
Neutral
$1.67B-13.36%2.24%-918.36%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
29.71
-8.79
-22.83%
CIVI
Civitas Resources
32.88
-31.40
-48.85%
SM
SM Energy
28.76
-15.56
-35.11%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
12.49
-1.12
-8.23%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
9.53
-1.78
-15.74%
BKV
BKV Corporation
20.51
2.46
13.63%

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Northern Oil and Gas Completes $200M Convertible Notes Placement
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. completed a private placement of $200 million in 3.65% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, including an option for additional notes exercised by the initial purchasers. The issuance, under a purchase agreement with Morgan Stanley, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and reduce potential stock dilution through capped call transactions, potentially impacting stakeholders by increasing the company’s leverage and altering its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northern Oil And Gas Announces Convertible Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of its upsized offering of $175 million in 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029, providing the company with strategic financial flexibility. The proceeds will be used for stock repurchase and hedge overlay to mitigate share dilution, with implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Northern Oil And Gas Announces $150M Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 12, 2025

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced its intention to offer $150 million in additional 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029 to qualified institutional buyers. This move is aimed at providing the company with strategic flexibility, with proceeds intended for stock repurchase and hedging against share dilution. The offering is part of a broader financial strategy to manage debt and enhance shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northern Oil and Gas Elects New Directors
Neutral
May 27, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas company announced the election of several directors, including Bahram Akradi, Lisa Bromiley, and Roy Easley, among others. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. They also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025