Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.16B
• Dividend Yield: 8.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 1.51%
• EPS Growth: -78.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 97,602,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,404,323
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,230,610
• PEG Ratio: -0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.84
• 1Y Price Target: $28.86
• Price Target Upside: 31.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.30B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(11.21% Upside)

Northern Oil And Gas has a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the stable financial position despite revenue and cash flow challenges. The stock's valuation is attractive, and the earnings call provided a positive outlook on production and liquidity. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Increased Production Guidance

The increase in production guidance reflects operational efficiency and strategic focus, indicating potential for sustained revenue growth and market competitiveness.

Strong Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position provides financial flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against market volatility, supporting long-term growth.

Consistent Free Cash Flow

Consistent free cash flow generation highlights operational efficiency and effective capital management, ensuring sustainable business operations.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining market momentum, potentially impacting future profitability and market share.

Increased Lease Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can erode profit margins and reduce financial flexibility, posing a risk to long-term profitability.

Oil Production Decline

A decline in oil production may affect revenue and market positioning, highlighting potential operational challenges and market risks.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company typically receives revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its operated and non-operated wells. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. NOG also benefits from its partnership model, often acquiring interests in properties that are operated by other companies, allowing it to reduce operational risks and capital expenditures. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility in the oil and gas markets, locking in prices for future production to stabilize cash flows. Significant partnerships with operators in its key areas enhance its ability to grow production and reserves, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas exhibits mixed financial performance. Revenue and profit margins are declining, and free cash flow challenges present risks. However, the balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage.

Income Statement

Northern Oil And Gas has shown mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate at -1.33%, reflecting challenges in maintaining revenue momentum. Gross profit margin has decreased to 27.61% from 38.64% in the previous year, indicating increased cost pressures. Net profit margin has also declined to 8.00% from 24.05%, suggesting reduced profitability. However, the company maintains a healthy EBITDA margin of 50.47%, showcasing strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04, indicating manageable leverage levels. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 7.73% from 22.42%, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 40.84%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet shows a stable but slightly weakened financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has shown a significant negative growth rate of -433.31% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.92, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential issues in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.19B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
Gross Profit	764.58M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
EBITDA	1.23B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
Net Income	181.19M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.49B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.65M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
Total Debt	2.35B	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
Total Liabilities	3.25B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
Stockholders Equity	2.24B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-166.69M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
Operating Cash Flow	1.48B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.61B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
Financing Cash Flow	121.38M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.64, below the 50-day MA of 23.53, and below the 200-day MA of 26.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SM	72 Outperform	$2.11B	2.91	16.58%	4.37%	34.93%	-11.85%
CIVI	71 Outperform	$2.34B	3.99	9.56%	7.59%	-6.52%	-32.26%
CRGY	71 Outperform	$2.28B	―	0.64%	5.66%	32.31%	-122.30%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.86B	11.76	23.90%	9.81%	-0.75%	-29.40%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NOG	65 Neutral	$2.16B	12.50	7.95%	8.64%	1.51%	-78.38%
BKV	65 Neutral	$2.31B	52.55	2.62%	―	31.67%	―

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil and Gas Earnings Call Highlights Growth Amid Challenges

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed sentiment among investors. The company showcased a strong performance outlook with increased production guidance and a robust business development pipeline. However, a significant impairment charge led to a net loss, highlighting some challenges. Despite these hurdles, NOG’s liquidity position and strategic capital management are positive indicators for future growth, although challenges remain with increased lease operating expenses and a sequential decline in oil production.

Northern Oil And Gas Secures New Credit Facility

On November 5, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into a new Revolving Credit Facility with Wells Fargo Bank, replacing its previous facility from June 7, 2022. This agreement, maturing in 2030, sets an initial commitment of $1.6 billion and a Borrowing Base of $1.8 billion, with semiannual redeterminations. The facility includes covenants and conditions that limit the company’s financial and operational activities, ensuring compliance with financial ratios and securing obligations with a first priority security interest in the company’s assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil and Gas Reports Mixed Q3 2025 Results

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is a real asset company focused on acquiring and investing in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in premier hydrocarbon-producing basins across the contiguous United States.

Northern Oil and Gas Issues $725M Senior Notes

On October 1, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. issued $725 million in 7.875% Senior Notes due 2033, with interest payable semi-annually starting April 2026. The company also announced the results of its tender offer for its 8.125% Senior Notes due 2028, accepting $684.943 million of these notes for payment using proceeds from the new 2033 Notes issuance. This financial maneuver is expected to impact the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Prices $725M Senior Notes

On September 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of a private placement of $725 million in new 7.875% senior notes due 2033. The proceeds from this offering will be used to fund the purchase and potential redemption of the company’s outstanding 8.125% senior notes due 2028, as well as for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces Cash Tender Offer

On September 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the commencement of a cash tender offer for any and all of its outstanding 8.125% senior notes due 2028. The offer is contingent upon the successful completion of a concurrent bond offering and the receipt of net proceeds. Additionally, the company plans to offer $725 million in new senior notes due 2033 in a private offering, subject to market conditions. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially impact its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.