Northern Oil And Gas (NOG)
NYSE:NOG
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Northern Oil And Gas
(NYSE:NOG)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▼(-8.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large TTM net loss, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include strong operating cash flow/EBITDA, constructive earnings-call commentary on operations and liquidity, and supportive corporate actions (Duvernay expansion and balance-sheet flexibility), with the high dividend yield providing additional support.
Positive Factors
Durable cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.42B TTM) and a healthy EBITDA margin (~47%) indicate durable cash generation that can fund distributions, organic development, and accretive acquisitions. Because OCF exceeded net income by ~1.6x, cash earnings are resilient even when GAAP results swing, supporting medium-term capital deployment and liquidity.
Negative Factors
Large GAAP losses & negative FCF
A sizable TTM net loss and a shift to negative free cash flow reduce retained earnings and constrain internal funding capacity. Persistent GAAP losses can limit strategic flexibility, raise the cost of external capital, and pressure distributable cash metrics, especially if commodity prices or production mix deteriorate versus management projections.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.42B TTM) and a healthy EBITDA margin (~47%) indicate durable cash generation that can fund distributions, organic development, and accretive acquisitions. Because OCF exceeded net income by ~1.6x, cash earnings are resilient even when GAAP results swing, supporting medium-term capital deployment and liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.51B
Dividend Yield8.18%
Average Volume (3M)2.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-6.81%
EPS Growth-197.47%
CountryUS
Employees49
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.32
Shares Outstanding105,791,120
10 Day Avg. Volume2,866,886
30 Day Avg. Volume2,571,691
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.38Price Target Upside35.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)3.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.68B
Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in th...
How the Company Makes Money
NOG makes money by owning non-operated working interests in oil and natural gas wells and then selling its share of the hydrocarbons produced. Its primary revenue stream is upstream production revenue: for each well in which it owns an interest, N...
Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized operational momentum — record quarterly production (+6% sequential), a record ground game (41 deals, >5,100 acres), a strengthened balance sheet (>$1.2B liquidity, $230M equity raise), and an improved M&A/backlog pipeline (> $10B reviewed). These positive signals were offset by large noncash accounting hits (≈$521M MTM loss on derivatives and a $268M impairment), continued weak gas realizations (≈72% of benchmark) driven by Permian takeaway constraints, and guidance uncertainty due to geopolitical volatility. On balance, management portrayed durable financial insulation from hedges, ongoing organic growth initiatives, and selective M&A optionality, while acknowledging headline negatives that are largely noncash or expected to be transitory if strips hold.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Production
Total average daily production exceeded 148,000 BOE/d, a company record and up ~6% sequentially. Oil-to-gas mix was ~50/50, with Appalachia and Williston delivering particularly strong performance.
Negative Updates
Large Noncash Mark-to-Market Derivative Loss
GAAP net income was impacted by a noncash mark-to-market loss on derivatives of approximately $521 million driven by a sharp run-up in oil prices during the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Production
Total average daily production exceeded 148,000 BOE/d, a company record and up ~6% sequentially. Oil-to-gas mix was ~50/50, with Appalachia and Williston delivering particularly strong performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left 2026 guidance unchanged amid commodity volatility, saying they are currently trending toward the higher end of their "low activity" scenario and expect to tighten ranges by the Q2 call; Q1 metrics framed that view: production >148,000 BOE/d (up 6% sequentially) with a 50/50 oil/gas split, 43.7 net wells in process and 9.2 net AFEs (Permian ≈1/3 of wells in process and ≈60% of AFE inventory), 216 well consents (in the 200–230 range), and a record 41 ground‑game deals adding >5,100 net acres and 6 net wells. They reiterated a ~60/40 H1/H2 CapEx cadence after Q1 CapEx of $270M (≈$227M organic; 31% Permian / 27% Appalachia / 24% Williston / 17% Uinta), noted liquidity of >$1.2B plus $175M untapped and a ~$230M equity raise, warned Permian gas realizations should remain weak until late‑2026 takeaway projects come online (Appalachia stronger on M2), and highlighted hedge/financial items affecting reported results (noncash mark‑to‑market loss ≈$521M, hedges settled $17.6M loss with gas +$11M and oil −$28M, and a $268M impairment that may be the last if oil stays at current levels).Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.06B | 2.10B | 2.16B | 1.91B | 1.99B | 975.09M |
| Gross Profit | 629.56M | 675.20M | 835.98M | 913.86M | 1.32B | 586.49M |
| EBITDA | 967.44M | 1.05B | 1.58B | 1.62B | 1.11B | 206.44M |
| Net Income | -623.07M | 38.76M | 520.31M | 922.97M | 773.24M | 6.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.51B | 5.41B | 5.60B | 4.48B | 2.88B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.04M | 14.30M | 8.93M | 8.20M | 2.53M | 9.52M |
| Total Debt | 2.55B | 2.40B | 2.37B | 1.84B | 1.53B | 803.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.73B | 3.28B | 3.28B | 2.44B | 2.13B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.78B | 2.13B | 2.32B | 2.05B | 745.26M | 215.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -749.40M | 252.83M | -283.19M | -661.93M | -431.36M | -197.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.42B | 1.51B | 1.41B | 1.18B | 928.42M | 396.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.62B | -1.25B | -1.67B | -1.86B | -1.40B | -634.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 204.57M | -247.46M | 266.83M | 684.69M | 467.37M | 246.06M |
Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis
Negative
24.55
Price Trends
26.45
Negative
25.57
Negative
24.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.86
Positive
32.81
Neutral
22.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.84, below the 50-day MA of 26.45, and above the 200-day MA of 24.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOG.
Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $8.10B | -2.68 | 2.49% | 4.38% | 27.35% | -66.88% | |
67 Neutral | $2.94B | 60.48 | 26.86% | 9.94% | 54.86% | 37.42% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $3.09B | 16.50 | 15.50% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $4.36B | -2.64 | -6.06% | 5.78% | 18.27% | -67.80% | |
50 Neutral | $2.51B | -1.38 | -29.09% | 8.18% | -6.81% | -197.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
22.34
-3.20
-12.53%
SM
SM Energy
31.79
8.97
39.28%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
13.72
1.38
11.19%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
12.43
4.18
50.70%
BKV
BKV Corporation
27.08
5.08
23.09%
Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Northern Oil And Gas Shareholders Back Board, Pay, Auditor
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 21, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas shareholders elected all seven director nominees, including CEO Nicholas O’Grady, with substantial majorities, signaling continued support for the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Northern Oil And Gas Expands Into Canadian Duvernay Assets
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas agreed to buy a 25% undivided, non‑operated interest in light oil assets in Alberta’s Duvernay East Shale Basin from Parallax Energy Operating, for a total initial unadjusted price of CA$350 millio...
Private Placements and Financing
Northern Oil And Gas Completes Public Equity Offering
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with BofA Securities, Inc. for a previously announced public equity offering of 7,207,208 shares of common stock, including a 30-day option for the underwriter to...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.