Northern Oil And Gas (NOG)
NYSE:NOG
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Northern Oil And Gas
(NYSE:NOG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(18.78% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/14/26
Score is driven primarily by improved financial health and strong operating cash flow, supported by constructive technical trends. It is held back by sharp 2025 profit compression and historical free-cash-flow volatility, plus valuation pressure from a high P/E (partly offset by the high dividend). Earnings-call guidance and commentary were generally positive but highlighted meaningful near-term uncertainty and impairment-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Northern materially rebuilt equity to over $2.1B and reports no debt in 2025, reversing prior high leverage. This stronger capital structure reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, increases optionality for M&A or share actions, and supports sustained dividend and investment flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Large Non-Cash Impairments
Very large impairments in 2025 show the asset base is sensitive to lower price assumptions and reserve economics. Such write‑downs reduce reported equity, introduce volatility to GAAP earnings, and may indicate pockets of weaker asset economics that could constrain future reinvestment or necessitate more conservative capital plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Northern materially rebuilt equity to over $2.1B and reports no debt in 2025, reversing prior high leverage. This stronger capital structure reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, increases optionality for M&A or share actions, and supports sustained dividend and investment flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.82B
Dividend Yield8.18%
Average Volume (3M)3.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)54.1
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth1.51%
EPS Growth-78.38%
CountryUS
Employees49
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding104,501,870
10 Day Avg. Volume2,027,689
30 Day Avg. Volume3,015,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.17Price Target Upside23.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.26B
Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in th...
How the Company Makes Money
NOG makes money by owning non-operated working interests in oil and natural gas wells and then selling its share of the hydrocarbons produced. Its primary revenue stream is upstream production revenue: for each well in which it owns an interest, N...
Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call reflects a constructive operational and financial position—production and adjusted EBITDA grew, free cash flow was strong, liquidity was enhanced, and the company executed a record ground game and a strategically significant Utica/Antero acquisition. These positives are juxtaposed with notable near-term headwinds: large non-cash impairments driven by lower oil prices, weaker commodity realizations (especially gas realizations in Q4), some YoY oil production decline, and uncertainty around operator-driven activity and timing. Management conveyed confidence in dividend sustainability and a strategy built to capture upside as the cycle recovers. Taken together, the company appears well-positioned to navigate the downturn and capture future upside, though near-term volatility and accounting impairments remain notable risks.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Strength
Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $1.63 billion (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $367 million). Free cash flow for the year was $424 million (Q4 free cash flow $43 million), demonstrating strong cash generation despite commodity headwinds.
Negative Updates
Material Non-Cash Impairments
GAAP results were negatively impacted by $703 million of non-cash impairment charges recorded during 2025 (including a $270 million Q4 impairment) driven by lower average oil prices under the full-cost ceiling test.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Strength
Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $1.63 billion (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $367 million). Free cash flow for the year was $424 million (Q4 free cash flow $43 million), demonstrating strong cash generation despite commodity headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management issued two-case 2026 guidance (low‑activity and high‑activity) that spans production, operating expense and CapEx outcomes and assumes roughly 70–90 net wells for the year (current wells‑in‑process 45.6 net; 13 net wells elected but not spud; ~235 gross wells total), with activity mix targeted ~40% Permian / 25% Appalachia / 25% Williston / 10% Uinta. Wells and proposals are averaging ~13,000 ft laterals with normalized well costs down nearly 5% q/q and >95% of proposals elected; spending is expected to be front‑end loaded (~60/40 split) while well activity is ~even H1/H2, with a typical Q1 dip and a Q2 ramp. In the low case NOG expects lower oil volumes but materially lower spending and substantially larger free cash flow at today’s strip; in the high case it expects accelerated activity, fewer curtailments and higher TILs (management cited roughly $100–150M difference between low/high scenarios and on the order of $130–150M incremental cash per $5/bbl oil). Ground‑game remains a primary lever (2025 organic CapEx ~$1.0B with $174M ground‑game; Q4 CapEx $270M with ~$193M organic), and NOG says it has ample liquidity to execute either path (revolver borrowing base $1.975B, elected commitment $1.8B, revolver extended to Nov‑2030 and >$1B available liquidity post‑Utica close).Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.10B | 2.16B | 1.91B | 1.99B | 975.09M |
| Gross Profit | 675.20M | 835.98M | 913.86M | 1.32B | 586.49M |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 1.58B | 1.62B | 1.11B | 206.44M |
| Net Income | 38.76M | 520.31M | 922.97M | 773.24M | 6.36M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.41B | 5.60B | 4.48B | 2.88B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.30M | 8.93M | 8.20M | 2.53M | 9.52M |
| Total Debt | 2.40B | 2.37B | 1.84B | 1.53B | 803.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.28B | 3.28B | 2.44B | 2.13B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.13B | 2.32B | 2.05B | 745.26M | 215.13M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 252.83M | -283.19M | -661.93M | -431.36M | -197.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.41B | 1.18B | 928.42M | 396.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.25B | -1.67B | -1.86B | -1.40B | -634.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -247.46M | 266.83M | 684.69M | 467.37M | 246.06M |
Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.94
Price Trends
27.10
Negative
24.48
Positive
24.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Positive
44.23
Neutral
15.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.32, below the 50-day MA of 27.10, and above the 200-day MA of 24.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOG.
Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.99B | 9.38 | 27.16% | 9.94% | -0.75% | -29.40% | |
75 Outperform | $6.76B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 34.93% | -11.85% | |
68 Neutral | $4.18B | 15.28 | 3.06% | 5.78% | 32.31% | -122.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.82B | 54.12 | 1.69% | 8.18% | 1.51% | -78.38% | |
59 Neutral | $3.04B | 14.44 | 10.00% | ― | 31.67% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
26.94
5.72
26.94%
SM
SM Energy
28.38
7.38
35.17%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.08
1.36
10.69%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
12.74
5.23
69.62%
BKV
BKV Corporation
28.18
11.16
65.57%
Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Northern Oil And Gas Completes Public Equity Offering
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with BofA Securities, Inc. for a previously announced public equity offering of 7,207,208 shares of common stock, including a 30-day option for the underwriter to...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Northern Oil And Gas Expands Utica Assets and Liquidity
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. closed its previously announced joint acquisition of non-operated upstream and midstream interests in Ohio Utica Shale assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream. Under amended purchase agree...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.