Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.68B
• Dividend Yield: 8.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 70.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 1.51%
• EPS Growth: -78.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 97,602,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,584,347
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,775,450
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.55
• 1Y Price Target: $26.80
• Price Target Upside: -2.86% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.75
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.09B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(5.11% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

Overall score is driven primarily by improved financial footing and strong operating cash generation, supported by bullish technical trend signals and a high dividend yield. The score is capped by sharp 2025 profit compression, historically volatile free cash flow, and meaningful near-term uncertainty reflected in the wide 2026 guidance range and commodity realization headwinds.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength and improved liquidity

Extension and upsized revolver plus material available liquidity and recent debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility. This durable funding capacity lowers refinancing risk, supports sustained dividends, opportunistic M&A and capital spending through commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months.

Strong operating cash generation

High adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow show the business converts production into cash reliably, enabling internal funding for development, ground‑game acquisitions and dividend coverage. Durable cash generation reduces near‑term reliance on capital markets amid commodity volatility.

Scale expansion via Utica transaction and ground game

The Utica acquisition and record ground‑game materially expand core inventory and development optionality, increasing future production runway and midstream integration. Greater scale in Appalachia and added locations strengthen long‑term growth potential independent of short quarter swings.

Negative Factors

Large non‑cash impairments

Substantial impairments signal reserve and asset valuations are sensitive to commodity prices, reducing reported equity and masking recurring cash profits. These write‑downs can constrain capital allocation optics, raise stakeholder scrutiny, and reflect structural exposure to price downturns over the medium term.

Compressed and volatile profitability

A collapse to low net margins after prior stronger years indicates earnings are highly cyclical and vulnerable to realizations, differentials and LOE. Persistent margin weakness reduces internal reinvestment capacity and heightens reliance on commodity hedges and acquisition‑led growth to sustain returns.

Guidance and operator‑activity uncertainty

As a non‑operated owner, NOG’s volumes and timing depend on third‑party operators. The bifurcated guidance reflects meaningful visibility risk, making cash flow and capital planning uncertain and increasing the chance of swings in dividends, buybacks or acquisition pacing over the next several quarters.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company typically receives revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its operated and non-operated wells. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. NOG also benefits from its partnership model, often acquiring interests in properties that are operated by other companies, allowing it to reduce operational risks and capital expenditures. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility in the oil and gas markets, locking in prices for future production to stabilize cash flows. Significant partnerships with operators in its key areas enhance its ability to grow production and reserves, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is the key support (improved leverage and materially higher equity), and operating cash flow remains strong. Offsetting this, profitability compressed sharply in 2025 (net margin ~1.6%) and free cash flow has been volatile (negative for several years before turning positive in 2025), with some 2025 data-consistency flags noted in the statements.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully from 2020 to 2025 (annual growth positive in most years, with 2025 up ~13%), showing a stronger scale than the earlier period. However, profitability has become far less consistent: net margin fell sharply from very strong levels in 2022–2024 to a low ~1.6% in 2025, and several margin fields for 2025 appear missing/zeroed, limiting confidence in the latest-year margin quality. Overall, the income profile looks cyclical—strong in 2022–2024, but a clear profit compression in 2025.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially versus earlier years: debt-to-equity moved from highly leveraged levels in 2021–2022 to around ~0.90–1.02 in 2023–2024, and the latest 2025 data shows no debt (as reported). Equity has grown materially over time (from a deficit in 2020 to >$2.1B in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main caution is data consistency in 2025 (debt reported at zero while assets remain sizable), and returns on equity cooled to ~1.8% in 2025 after much stronger levels in 2022–2024.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and covers earnings well (roughly 2.6–3.1x in 2022–2024; ~2.8x in 2025), indicating good cash conversion and non-cash charges typical for the sector. The key weakness is free cash flow volatility: it was negative in 2021–2024, then jumped sharply positive in 2025, with the reported free cash flow growth extremely large in magnitude (suggesting a major swing year-over-year). Overall cash generation is solid, but free cash flow stability is a risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.10B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M
Gross Profit	675.20M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M
EBITDA	1.05B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M
Net Income	38.76M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.41B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.30M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M
Total Debt	0.00	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M
Total Liabilities	3.28B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B
Stockholders Equity	2.13B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.51B	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M
Operating Cash Flow	1.51B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.25B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-247.46M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 27.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.08, above the 50-day MA of 23.71, and above the 200-day MA of 24.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BSM	80 Outperform	$3.21B	11.82	26.57%	9.94%	-0.75%	-29.40%
SM	72 Outperform	$5.51B	4.10	14.33%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
NOG	70 Outperform	$2.68B	70.74	1.74%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CRGY	64 Neutral	$3.82B	21.55	3.21%	5.78%	32.31%	-122.30%
BKV	61 Neutral	$3.04B	16.08	9.58%	―	31.67%	―

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil And Gas Expands Utica Assets and Liquidity

On February 23, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. closed its previously announced joint acquisition of non-operated upstream and midstream interests in Ohio Utica Shale assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream. Under amended purchase agreements signed on February 22, 2026, Northern took a 40% interest in both the upstream and midstream assets, with Infinity Natural Resources increasing its stake to 60%.

Northern’s share of the unadjusted purchase price was set at $320 million for the upstream assets and $160 million for the midstream assets, and the company paid $464.5 million in cash at closing, funded with cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under its revolving credit facility. On February 23, 2026, Northern also amended its credit agreement, lifting the borrowing base to $1.975 billion and elected commitments to $1.8 billion, effectively adding about $200 million in liquidity to support its expanded Utica footprint and overall growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil and Gas Acquires Antero Assets for Growth

On December 5, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. and Infinity Natural Resources entered into agreements to jointly acquire upstream and midstream assets from Antero Resources Corporation and Antero Midstream Corporation for a total of $1.2 billion. Northern will hold a 49% stake in these assets, which include significant oil and gas properties in Ohio’s Utica Shale, and expects substantial production growth and cash flow increases through the end of the decade. This acquisition enhances Northern’s natural gas profile and positions it for long-term growth, with Infinity operating the assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.