Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.81B
• Dividend Yield: 5.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 9.73%
• EPS Growth: 5.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.33
• Shares Outstanding: 98,704,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,823,894
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,821,681
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.41
• 1Y Price Target: $35.28
• Price Target Upside: 18.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(11.07%Upside)

Northern Oil And Gas scores well due to its strong financial recovery and attractive valuation. While technical indicators are mixed, the company's robust earnings performance and strategic corporate events bolster its overall appeal, particularly in addressing market volatility.

Positive Factors

Dividends and Returns

Last month, the quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.

Financial Performance

NOG started 2025 off strong with Adj EBTIDA of $435mn beating Consensus and BofAe.

Production and Operations

NOG continues to benefit from its natural gas position with production coming in between 315 – 319 mmcfd, above consensus of 300 mmcfd.

Negative Factors

Guidance and Expectations

NOG announced 2025 guidance which fell short of expectations, with capex ~3% above consensus while oil volume guidance was ~5% below.

Market Performance

Shares are down approximately 5% year-to-date compared to SMID E&P peers, which are up 4%.

Operational Challenges

Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is a leading independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. Operating primarily in the Williston Basin, which encompasses parts of North Dakota and Montana, NOG focuses on non-operated working interests in oil and gas leases, leveraging partnerships with operators to optimize production and asset value. The company aims to maximize shareholder value through strategic asset management and disciplined financial practices.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Oil and Gas generates revenue predominantly through the sale of oil and natural gas produced from its properties. The company holds non-operated working interests, which means it partners with operating companies that manage the day-to-day operations of its wells. NOG earns a share of the production revenue based on its ownership percentage in each well. The company's earnings are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, NOG may engage in strategic acquisitions and divestitures to optimize its portfolio, which can also contribute to its revenue streams. Partnerships with experienced operators and a focus on cost management are key factors that enhance its profitability.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved financial stability. The transition from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability and significant improvements in the balance sheet, alongside robust cash flow generation, highlight the company's strong financial health.

Income Statement

Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M	324.07M
Gross Profit	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M	15.83M
EBITDA	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M	-685.58M
Net Income	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M	-906.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B	872.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M	1.43M
Total Debt	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M	944.84M
Total Liabilities	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B	1.10B
Stockholders Equity	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M	-223.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M	47.76M
Operating Cash Flow	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M	331.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M	-283.93M
Financing Cash Flow	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M	-62.40M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.71
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.88, above the 50-day MA of 28.68, and below the 200-day MA of 32.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIVI	78 Outperform	$2.88B	3.57	12.73%	9.18%	22.14%	5.69%
NOG	76 Outperform	$2.81B	4.44	29.41%	5.86%	9.73%	5.01%
SM	72 Outperform	$3.16B	3.87	20.28%	2.78%	26.04%	11.96%
BSM	70 Outperform	$2.64B	13.65	19.93%	12.01%	-12.71%	-39.85%
CRGY	60 Neutral	$3.03B	23.27	-3.54%	5.04%	31.58%	-114.70%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.98B	-1.53	-3.48%	6.50%	3.05%	-49.39%
BKV	49 Neutral	$1.67B	―	-13.36%	―	2.24%	-918.36%

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil and Gas Completes $200M Convertible Notes Placement

On June 17, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. completed a private placement of $200 million in 3.65% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, including an option for additional notes exercised by the initial purchasers. The issuance, under a purchase agreement with Morgan Stanley, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and reduce potential stock dilution through capped call transactions, potentially impacting stakeholders by increasing the company’s leverage and altering its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces Convertible Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced the pricing of its upsized offering of $175 million in 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029, providing the company with strategic financial flexibility. The proceeds will be used for stock repurchase and hedge overlay to mitigate share dilution, with implications for the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces $150M Notes Offering

On June 12, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. announced its intention to offer $150 million in additional 3.625% convertible senior notes due 2029 to qualified institutional buyers. This move is aimed at providing the company with strategic flexibility, with proceeds intended for stock repurchase and hedging against share dilution. The offering is part of a broader financial strategy to manage debt and enhance shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil and Gas Elects New Directors

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 22, 2025, Northern Oil and Gas company announced the election of several directors, including Bahram Akradi, Lisa Bromiley, and Roy Easley, among others. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. They also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $47.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.