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California Resources Corp (CRC)
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California Resources Corp (CRC) AI Stock Analysis

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CRC

California Resources Corp

(NYSE:CRC)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(15.67% Upside)
CRC's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation. The company's strategic initiatives and financial health are significant strengths, while technical indicators and financial performance provide additional support. Regulatory challenges and revenue volatility are risks to monitor.
Positive Factors
Operational Performance
CRC turned in a strong operational quarter with beats in total production, unit costs, and EBITDAX.
Shareholder Returns
CRC returned an impressive $287m to shareholders including a $228m private deal to repurchase shares.
Valuation
The stock is considered undervalued based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis, suggesting potential for price appreciation.
Negative Factors
Equity Issuance Concerns
Equity issuance to PE investors has been a thematic overhang, with concerns about share sales as 6.5m shares held by IKAV and CPPIB are no longer restricted.
Market Reaction
CRC shares sold off by 11% due to fears around Brookfield payment deferrals, concerns on PE sales, and impatience around power PPA catalysts.
Regulatory Risks
There is concern about further appeal against Kern EIR, which is awaiting district court review and approval, potentially affecting CRC’s ability to secure well permits.

California Resources Corp (CRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

California Resources Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCalifornia Resources Corporation (CRC) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company operating primarily in California. The company focuses on developing and producing oil and natural gas reserves, with an emphasis on managing its assets to maximize value and ensure sustainable operations. CRC is committed to leveraging technology and innovation to efficiently access energy resources while maintaining environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyCalifornia Resources Corporation generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its various operations across California. CRC's financial performance is significantly influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize resource development and enhance profitability. Additionally, CRC focuses on cost management and technological advancements to improve its competitive edge in the energy sector.

California Resources Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -0.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong shareholder returns, operational performance, and cost management, alongside challenges in regulatory environments and some project timelines. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and financial health indicate a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Returns to Shareholders
The company returned nearly $290 million in the quarter, more than 260% of its free cash flow, largely due to a discounted share repurchase from ICA.
Ahead of Schedule ARA-related Merger Synergies
Implemented merger synergies three months ahead of schedule, achieving a $235 million target, with a net present value of $1.4 billion over the next 10 years.
Strong Operational Performance
Increased full-year outlook with a roughly 7% increase in adjusted EBITDAX, driven by exceeding operational and reservoir performance expectations.
Cost Management Success
Reduced nearly all 2025 operating expense items by about 7% compared to the original outlook, despite expecting higher energy costs.
Robust Shareholder Returns Program
Returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases since inception, representing about 86% of cumulative free cash flow over the last 4 years.
Strong Financial Position
Low leverage at 0.7x, undrawn revolver, and robust liquidity at over $1 billion.
First CCS Project Progress
Received construction authorization from the EPA for California's first Class 6 project, expecting to complete construction by year-end 2025 with injection starting early in 2026.
Improved Cash Tax Savings
Estimated $35 million in cash tax savings for 2025, with potential cumulative savings of $80 million to $150 million over the next 5 years.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Challenges in California
Uncertain timeline for oil and gas permit approvals due to the need for legislative and regulatory changes, including the Kern County EIR litigation and conditional use permits.
Delayed CCS Project Injection Timeline
Expected first injection for the Class 6 CCS project has been delayed to early 2026 due to EPA approval processes.
Company Guidance
During the California Resources Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided strong guidance and highlighted several performance metrics. They returned nearly $290 million to shareholders, exceeding 260% of their free cash flow, largely due to a discounted share repurchase. The company implemented merger synergies ahead of schedule, achieving a $235 million target with a net present value of approximately $1.4 billion over the next decade. Operationally, they delivered a net total production of 137,000 BOE per day with average realizations at 97% of Brent before hedges and 100% after hedging. The company reported adjusted EBITDAX of $324 million, surpassing expectations, driven by strong commodity price realizations and lower operating costs. They also raised their full-year production guidance and anticipate a 9% improvement in their 2025 free cash flow outlook before working capital. Looking ahead, the company aims to complete construction of California's first CCS project by year-end 2025, with plans to begin injection early in 2026. Overall, CRC’s integrated strategy positions them well to support California’s energy transition and deliver on long-term shareholder value.

California Resources Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CRC shows strong profitability and improved debt management, but faces challenges with revenue growth volatility and cash flow generation. The company's ability to maintain robust EBITDA margins and improve leverage ratios is commendable, yet vigilance is needed for potential risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
California Resources Corp (CRC) has shown a mixed performance in recent years. The gross profit margin is robust, thanks to the significant reduction in cost of goods sold. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, primarily due to fluctuations in EBIT and net income. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with significant declines in certain years, indicating potential instability. Despite these fluctuations, EBITDA margins remain strong, reflecting effective cost management.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
CRC's balance sheet shows improvement in debt management, with a decreasing trend in the debt-to-equity ratio, indicating reduced leverage risk. The return on equity (ROE) is strong, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio indicates moderate reliance on equity financing, which may expose the company to some risk if market conditions worsen. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a cautious but improving financial position.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
The cash flow analysis reveals solid operating cash flow, consistently covering net income, indicating good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow growth has shown positive trends, although it fluctuates due to capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio highlights efficiency in converting income into cash. While cash flows are generally healthy, reliance on financing activities in certain periods suggests potential liquidity management challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.69B2.93B2.81B3.26B2.56B1.61B
Gross Profit2.88B2.25B1.41B1.78B1.27B308.00M
EBITDA1.36B1.08B1.07B1.31B871.00M2.45B
Net Income501.00M376.00M564.00M524.00M612.00M3.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.83B7.13B4.00B3.97B3.85B3.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments214.00M372.00M496.00M307.00M305.00M28.00M
Total Debt1.10B1.22B610.00M662.00M637.00M639.00M
Total Liabilities3.31B3.60B1.78B2.10B2.16B1.89B
Stockholders Equity3.52B3.54B2.22B1.86B1.69B1.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow678.00M610.00M468.00M678.00M466.00M59.00M
Operating Cash Flow712.00M610.00M653.00M690.00M660.00M106.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.11B-1.08B-175.00M-317.00M-161.00M-37.00M
Financing Cash Flow206.00M343.00M-289.00M-371.00M-222.00M-58.00M

California Resources Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price47.55
Price Trends
50DMA
46.97
Positive
100DMA
43.05
Positive
200DMA
46.74
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.26
Positive
RSI
48.91
Neutral
STOCH
29.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 47.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.50, above the 50-day MA of 46.97, and above the 200-day MA of 46.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CRC.

California Resources Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (45)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.98B6.4924.36%3.26%58.35%210.80%
77
Outperform
$3.37B12.265.42%5.37%-14.90%-27.53%
72
Outperform
$4.07B7.2432.89%51.55%29.12%
72
Outperform
$3.02B3.7119.27%3.05%26.04%11.96%
70
Outperform
$2.58B10.5624.31%11.67%-12.71%-39.85%
54
Neutral
$2.93B16.69-6.25%10.44%-139.05%
45
Neutral
AU$1.33B-8.62-15.56%7.64%2.10%-32.50%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CRC
California Resources Corp
47.55
1.28
2.77%
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.27
-12.66
-35.24%
SM
SM Energy
26.24
-16.96
-39.26%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
12.20
-0.74
-5.72%
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
42.41
-6.35
-13.02%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
166.62
24.19
16.98%

California Resources Corp Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
California Resources Corp to Repurchase 4.95M Shares
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 23, 2025, California Resources Corp agreed to repurchase 4,950,000 shares of its Common Stock from IKAV at $46.00 per share, totaling $227,700,000. This transaction is part of the company’s $1.35 billion Share Repurchase Program and will be funded by cash on hand and operational cash flows. The settlement is expected on June 25, 2025, and will result in the cessation of lock-up restrictions on IKAV and its affiliates, enhancing the company’s flexibility in stock transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CRC) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on California Resources Corp stock, see the CRC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025