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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSE:KGS
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) AI Stock Analysis

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KGS

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.

(NYSE:KGS)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(8.24% Upside)
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. scores well due to strong earnings call highlights and solid financial performance. The company's strategic advancements and high dividend yield are positive factors. However, technical indicators and high leverage pose risks, slightly tempering the overall score.
Positive Factors
High Fleet Utilization
High fleet utilization indicates strong demand for Kodiak's services, maximizing asset efficiency and supporting revenue stability over the long term.
Record-Setting Financial Performance
Record financial performance underscores operational efficiency and robust market demand, enhancing long-term profitability and cash generation.
Successful Technology Investments
Investments in AI and machine learning improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, providing a competitive edge and supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Challenges in Oil Market
Market challenges and sentiment disconnect can affect demand for services, potentially impacting revenue and strategic planning.
Continued Labor Tightness
Labor shortages in key regions can hinder operational efficiency and increase costs, affecting long-term service delivery capabilities.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates contract compression infrastructure for customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It operates in two segments, Compression Operations and Other Services. The Compression Operations segment operates company-owned and customer-owned compression infrastructure to enable the production, gathering, and transportation of natural gas and oil. The Other Services segment provides a range of contract services, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, and other ancillary time and material-based offerings. The company was formerly known as Frontier TopCo, Inc. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is based in Montgomery, Texas. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Frontier Topco Partnership, L.P.
How the Company Makes MoneyKodiak Gas Services, Inc. generates revenue primarily through its service contracts with oil and gas companies. The company offers long-term agreements for the provision of natural gas compression services, which include the rental, operation, and maintenance of compression equipment. These contracts often include performance-based incentives, aligning Kodiak's interests with those of its clients to ensure optimal equipment uptime and efficiency. Additionally, Kodiak may have strategic partnerships with equipment manufacturers and technology providers to enhance its service offerings, although specific details on partnerships are not publicly available.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Kodiak Gas Services' strong financial performance, strategic advancements, and positive outlook, despite some challenges in the oil market and labor availability.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Share Repurchase Program
Kodiak Gas Services announced a $100 million increase to their share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Inclusion in S&P Small Cap 600 Index
Kodiak Gas Services was added to the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, highlighting the strength of the company's business strategy and commitment to profitable growth.
High Fleet Utilization
Fleet utilization ticked up to over 97% with large horsepower being effectively fully utilized at over 99%.
Record-Setting Financial Performance
Kodiak set new records in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, with a 15% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year.
Strong Contract Services Segment
Contract Services adjusted gross margin set a new record at 68.3%, a 430-basis point increase compared to the second quarter of 2024.
Successful Technology Investments
The use of industrial AI and machine learning for early detection of part failures has led to lower costs and more proactive asset management.
Increased 2025 Guidance
Kodiak increased the midpoint of their adjusted EBITDA guidance and discretionary cash flow outlook for 2025.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Oil Market
There is a disconnect between investor sentiment and on-the-ground reality, particularly regarding oil growth versus compression demand.
Continued Labor Tightness
Labor availability continues to be tight in the Permian Basin, posing ongoing challenges for operations.
Company Guidance
During the Kodiak Gas Services Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company outlined several key financial metrics and strategic moves that reflect its positive outlook. Kodiak increased its share repurchase program by $100 million, having already bought back approximately 2 million shares at an average price of over $30. The company's inclusion in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index marks a significant milestone, enhancing its visibility and shareholder value. For the second quarter, Kodiak reported a fleet utilization rate over 97%, with large horsepower units nearly fully utilized at over 99%. The company achieved record-setting results in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $178.2 million, a 15% year-over-year increase. Contract Services revenue grew by over 6%, and the adjusted gross margin percentage for this segment climbed by 430 basis points to 68.3%. Kodiak's leverage ratio fell to a new low of 3.6x, and the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share. Moving forward, Kodiak raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance and anticipates continued strong demand for large horsepower compression, driven by increasing natural gas volumes in the Permian Basin and strategic investments in technology to enhance operational efficiency.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability margins. The company has improved its cash flow position significantly, though high leverage remains a concern. Overall, the financial health is positive, but careful management of debt levels is crucial.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.6% and consistent improvement in gross and net profit margins over the years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the decline in gross profit margin from 2022 suggests some cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.92 in TTM, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity has improved to 6.29% in TTM, reflecting better profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. has shown impressive free cash flow growth in TTM, recovering from negative figures in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio, while improved, still suggests room for enhancement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.29B1.16B850.38M707.91M606.38M532.42M
Gross Profit514.87M440.66M316.64M440.56M396.20M207.47M
EBITDA607.67M533.32M440.52M483.93M389.73M314.06M
Net Income83.34M49.90M20.07M106.27M180.96M-2.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.38B4.44B3.24B3.21B3.01B3.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.43M4.75M5.56M20.43M28.80M24.11M
Total Debt2.61B2.65B1.83B2.73B1.85B1.90B
Total Liabilities3.03B3.06B2.10B2.98B2.05B2.54B
Stockholders Equity1.34B1.36B1.14B229.09M960.07M755.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow126.92M-8.97M46.53M-39.50M48.04M-53.41M
Operating Cash Flow446.86M327.99M266.33M219.85M249.98M243.98M
Investing Cash Flow-267.68M-292.47M-218.42M-251.38M-202.03M-296.38M
Financing Cash Flow-177.61M-36.33M-62.77M23.17M-43.25M73.71M

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.26
Price Trends
50DMA
33.32
Positive
100DMA
33.77
Positive
200DMA
36.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Positive
RSI
50.20
Neutral
STOCH
36.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.56, below the 50-day MA of 33.32, and below the 200-day MA of 36.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KGS.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
2.44B12.2923.84%8.14%62.72%
76
Outperform
3.15B15.5213.43%1.34%-0.71%-7.89%
74
Outperform
339.40M19.206.73%0.37%14.77%34.74%
73
Outperform
4.24B18.5116.44%3.17%28.22%49.17%
68
Neutral
$2.86B37.096.16%5.05%31.01%39.51%
61
Neutral
2.88B36.63-195.43%8.96%8.22%28.05%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
33.26
5.10
18.11%
AROC
Archrock
24.10
3.87
19.13%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
27.06
7.25
36.60%
OII
Oceaneering International
24.36
-1.66
-6.38%
USAC
USA Compression
23.44
2.54
12.15%
WHD
Cactus
39.48
-23.29
-37.10%

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Enters Underwriting Agreement for Stock Sale
Neutral
Sep 9, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. entered into an Underwriting Agreement with Frontier TopCo Partnership, L.P. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 10,000,000 shares of common stock by the Selling Stockholder at $34.40 per share. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this transaction, which closed on September 9, 2025. The agreement includes standard representations, warranties, and indemnification provisions, impacting the company’s financial structure and stakeholder relations.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Kodiak Gas Services Issues $1.2 Billion in Notes
Neutral
Sep 5, 2025

On September 5, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC issued $1.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, split equally between notes due in 2033 and 2035, with interest rates of 6.500% and 6.750%, respectively. The issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver involving optional redemption terms and covenants that limit certain financial activities, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and stakeholder interests. Additionally, Kodiak Gas Services amended its credit agreement to reduce interest rate margins, extend the maturity date, and adjust borrowing base provisions, which may enhance its financial stability and operational capacity.

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Prices $1.2 Billion Note Offering
Neutral
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, has priced a private offering of $1.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, split equally between notes due in 2033 and 2035. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay part of the company’s outstanding indebtedness under its revolving asset-based loan credit facility, which will see its total commitments reduced to $2.0 billion and its maturity date extended. This financial maneuver is expected to impact the company’s operational flexibility and financial stability.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Kodiak Gas Services Launches $1 Billion Note Offering
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, launched a private offering of $1 billion in senior unsecured notes due in 2033 and 2035. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay part of the outstanding debt under the company’s revolving asset-based loan credit facility, with plans to amend the facility to reduce commitments to $2 billion and extend the maturity date. This move is expected to decrease borrowing costs and adjust the company’s financial structure, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and financial stability positively.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Kodiak Gas Services Announces $50M Stock Buyback
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced a stock repurchase agreement to buy back 1,508,750 shares of its common stock from Frontier TopCo Partnership, L.P. for a total of $50 million, with the transaction expected to close on August 12, 2025. This repurchase, approved by a special committee of independent directors, is part of Kodiak’s capital allocation strategy to enhance shareholder value and results in the Selling Stockholder’s ownership dropping below 35%, triggering changes in the Stockholders’ Agreement, including reduced board representation and approval rights for the Selling Stockholder.

Dividends
Kodiak Gas Services Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 24, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.45 per share of common stock, payable on August 14, 2025, to stockholders of record as of August 4, 2025. Additionally, its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, declared a similar distribution for its unitholders. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and maintaining strong financial health, potentially reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 20, 2025