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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSE:KGS
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) AI Stock Analysis

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KGS

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.

(NYSE:KGS)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(6.70% Upside)
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. demonstrates strong cash flow management and strategic positioning, which are significant strengths. However, high leverage and a high P/E ratio pose risks. The technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, which could impact short-term performance. Overall, the stock has a moderate score, reflecting both its strengths and challenges.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Management
Strong cash flow management indicates effective operational efficiency and ability to reinvest in growth opportunities, enhancing long-term sustainability.
Strategic Focus on U.S. Market
Focusing on the U.S. market with higher returns and lower risks strengthens the company's strategic positioning and reduces operational complexities.
High Fleet Utilization
High fleet utilization reflects strong demand for services, ensuring stable revenue streams and reinforcing market leadership in natural gas compression.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market volatility, potentially affecting long-term financial health.
Declining Revenue Growth
A declining revenue growth trend may indicate challenges in market expansion or competitive pressures, impacting future profitability.
Long Lead Times for Equipment
Extended lead times for equipment could hinder the company's ability to meet demand and capitalize on growth opportunities, affecting operational efficiency.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) is a leading provider of natural gas compression services and solutions primarily for the oil and gas industry. Operating in the midstream sector, KGS specializes in the rental and servicing of natural gas compression equipment, offering a range of products that include both high- and low-pressure compressors. The company caters to a diverse clientele, including producers and gatherers of natural gas, helping optimize production and transportation processes while ensuring compliance with industry standards.
How the Company Makes MoneyKodiak Gas Services generates revenue primarily through the rental of natural gas compression equipment, charging clients on a contractual basis for the use of its machinery. The company may also offer maintenance and operational support services, adding recurring revenue streams through service contracts. Key revenue streams include long-term rental agreements with large operators in high-demand areas, as well as one-time rentals for short-term projects. Significant partnerships with major oil and gas companies further contribute to its earnings, as these relationships often result in stable, long-term contracts that enhance KGS's financial stability.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Kodiak Gas Services reported a successful quarter with strategic exits from international markets, significant shareholder returns, and record discretionary cash flow. However, the company faced challenges with nonrecurring expenses and a significant tax charge. Despite these issues, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong financial performance and strategic positioning for future growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful ERP System Implementation
The new ERP system went live in August, delivered on time and under budget, consolidating legacy systems into an integrated platform to increase visibility and deploy AI technology.
Strategic Exit from International Operations
Exited all international operations, including divesting assets in Mexico, focusing on the U.S. market with higher returns and lower risks.
Debt Refinancing and Increased Liquidity
Termed out $1.4 billion of debt at a weighted average cost of 6.6%, increasing liquidity with $1.5 billion of availability in the ABL Facility.
Shareholder Return Initiatives
Returned over $90 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, increasing the quarterly dividend by 9%.
Industry-Leading Metrics
Achieved 98% fleet utilization, with large horsepower units over 99% utilized, reflecting strong demand.
Record Discretionary Cash Flow
Set a new quarterly record in discretionary cash flow, generating nearly $117 million, equating to a 15% discretionary cash flow yield.
Negative Updates
Nonrecurring SG&A Expenses
Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by over $5 million of nonrecurring SG&A expenses related to the divested Mexico business.
Texas Tax Charge
Booked a noncash charge of $28 million related to a multiyear negotiation with the state of Texas over the taxability of compression assets.
Long Lead Times for New Equipment
Lead times for new compression equipment have significantly stretched out to upwards of 60 weeks, potentially affecting future operations.
Company Guidance
During the Kodiak Gas Services third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported a $175 million adjusted EBITDA, despite a $5 million SG&A expense related to the divested Mexico business. They emphasized a robust discretionary cash flow increase to $117 million for the quarter, with expectations to surpass their annual guidance of $450 million to $470 million. Kodiak has effectively termed out $1.4 billion of debt, achieving a weighted average cost of 6.6%, and increased their quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.49 per share, returning over $90 million to shareholders. Fleet utilization was industry-leading at 98%, and the company deployed approximately 60,000 new horsepower, with 40% being electric motor-driven. The company successfully exited international operations, focusing on the U.S. market due to higher returns and lower operating risks. Looking ahead, Kodiak is fully contracted for its 2026 capital plan, driven by strong demand for large horsepower compression, with lead times for new equipment extending to 60 weeks.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. shows strong cash flow management and operational efficiency, with a notable free cash flow growth rate of 47.7%. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12, which could pose risks in a volatile market.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 14.8%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 41.5% and an EBIT margin of 24.2%, indicating operational efficiency. The net profit margin has improved to 5.8% from the previous year, showing better profitability management.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.12, which suggests significant leverage and potential risk if market conditions worsen. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 6.3%, indicating moderate efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 28.7%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis is a strong point for Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., with a notable free cash flow growth rate of 47.7% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.50, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.36 suggests effective cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.28B1.16B850.38M707.91M606.38M532.42M
Gross Profit599.50M440.66M316.64M266.10M236.15M207.47M
EBITDA583.51M533.32M440.52M479.69M367.07M264.41M
Net Income74.98M49.90M20.07M106.27M180.96M-2.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.37B4.44B3.24B3.21B3.01B3.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments724.00K4.75M5.56M20.43M28.80M24.11M
Total Debt2.67B2.65B1.83B2.73B1.85B1.90B
Total Liabilities3.12B3.06B2.10B2.98B2.05B2.54B
Stockholders Equity1.25B1.36B1.14B229.09M960.07M755.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow187.49M-8.97M46.53M-39.50M48.04M-53.41M
Operating Cash Flow523.36M327.99M266.33M219.85M249.98M243.98M
Investing Cash Flow-288.84M-292.47M-218.42M-251.38M-202.03M-296.38M
Financing Cash Flow-241.23M-36.33M-62.77M23.17M-43.25M73.71M

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.74
Price Trends
50DMA
34.56
Positive
100DMA
33.68
Positive
200DMA
34.41
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.23
Negative
RSI
55.66
Neutral
STOCH
59.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.46, below the 50-day MA of 34.56, and below the 200-day MA of 34.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KGS.

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$4.10B15.5619.33%3.33%31.94%64.74%
75
Outperform
$388.00M20.877.15%0.68%9.53%15.48%
73
Outperform
$2.42B10.5928.92%8.71%72.09%
71
Outperform
$3.29B16.3915.77%1.25%-3.76%-11.00%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
$2.92B42.705.86%5.33%19.43%164.71%
61
Neutral
$2.92B29.658.83%6.66%43.66%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
35.01
-2.88
-7.60%
AROC
Archrock
24.00
-0.13
-0.54%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
31.21
3.89
14.24%
OII
Oceaneering International
24.57
-5.22
-17.52%
USAC
USA Compression
24.55
2.59
11.79%
WHD
Cactus
42.31
-24.66
-36.82%

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Corporate Events

Kodiak Gas Services Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Nov 6, 2025

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., based in The Woodlands, Texas, is a prominent provider of contract compression services and critical energy infrastructure, primarily serving the natural gas and oil sectors across the United States.

Kodiak Gas Services Reports Strong Earnings and Strategic Growth
Nov 6, 2025

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. reported a successful quarter, marked by strategic exits from international markets, significant shareholder returns, and record discretionary cash flow. Despite challenges such as nonrecurring expenses and a significant tax charge, the overall sentiment remains positive, driven by strong financial performance and strategic positioning for future growth.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Kodiak Gas Services Increases Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.49 per share, payable on November 13, 2025, reflecting the company’s strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. Additionally, Kodiak Services, a subsidiary, declared a similar distribution for its units. The company will release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, followed by a conference call on November 5, 2025, to discuss the earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Completes $200M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 23, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC completed a private offering of additional senior unsecured notes totaling $200 million, with maturities set for 2033 and 2035. This issuance is part of a broader strategy to manage the company’s debt portfolio, aligning with existing notes and offering structural guarantees, which may enhance the company’s financial flexibility and appeal to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Announces $200M Notes Offering
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

On September 18, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary priced a private offering of an additional $200 million in senior unsecured notes, with $170 million due in 2033 and $30 million due in 2035. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay a portion of the company’s outstanding indebtedness under its revolving asset-based loan credit facility, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Launches $200M Notes Offering
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

On September 18, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, launched a private offering of an additional $200 million in senior unsecured notes due 2033. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay a portion of the company’s outstanding indebtedness under its revolving asset-based loan credit facility, which may impact the company’s financial structure and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Enters Underwriting Agreement for Stock Sale
Neutral
Sep 9, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. entered into an Underwriting Agreement with Frontier TopCo Partnership, L.P. and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for the sale of 10,000,000 shares of common stock by the Selling Stockholder at $34.40 per share. The company did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this transaction, which closed on September 9, 2025. The agreement includes standard representations, warranties, and indemnification provisions, impacting the company’s financial structure and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Issues $1.2 Billion in Notes
Neutral
Sep 5, 2025

On September 5, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC issued $1.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, split equally between notes due in 2033 and 2035, with interest rates of 6.500% and 6.750%, respectively. The issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver involving optional redemption terms and covenants that limit certain financial activities, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and stakeholder interests. Additionally, Kodiak Gas Services amended its credit agreement to reduce interest rate margins, extend the maturity date, and adjust borrowing base provisions, which may enhance its financial stability and operational capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Prices $1.2 Billion Note Offering
Neutral
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, has priced a private offering of $1.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, split equally between notes due in 2033 and 2035. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay part of the company’s outstanding indebtedness under its revolving asset-based loan credit facility, which will see its total commitments reduced to $2.0 billion and its maturity date extended. This financial maneuver is expected to impact the company’s operational flexibility and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Launches $1 Billion Note Offering
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC, launched a private offering of $1 billion in senior unsecured notes due in 2033 and 2035. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay part of the outstanding debt under the company’s revolving asset-based loan credit facility, with plans to amend the facility to reduce commitments to $2 billion and extend the maturity date. This move is expected to decrease borrowing costs and adjust the company’s financial structure, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and financial stability positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Kodiak Gas Services Shines in Earnings Call
Aug 13, 2025

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a strong financial performance and a positive outlook for the future. Despite facing some challenges, such as a tight labor market and a reduction in revenue forecast for Other Services, the overall sentiment was optimistic, highlighting increased shareholder returns and favorable market dynamics.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Kodiak Gas Services Announces $50M Stock Buyback
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced a stock repurchase agreement to buy back 1,508,750 shares of its common stock from Frontier TopCo Partnership, L.P. for a total of $50 million, with the transaction expected to close on August 12, 2025. This repurchase, approved by a special committee of independent directors, is part of Kodiak’s capital allocation strategy to enhance shareholder value and results in the Selling Stockholder’s ownership dropping below 35%, triggering changes in the Stockholders’ Agreement, including reduced board representation and approval rights for the Selling Stockholder.

The most recent analyst rating on (KGS) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock, see the KGS Stock Forecast page.

Kodiak Gas Services Boosts Share Repurchase Program
Aug 8, 2025

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., a prominent player in the energy infrastructure sector, specializes in providing contract compression services essential for the production and transportation of natural gas and oil across the United States. Headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the company is known for its robust service offerings in high-volume gas gathering systems and natural gas transmission systems.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025