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Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
NYSE:AROC

Archrock (AROC) AI Stock Analysis

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AROC

Archrock

(NYSE:AROC)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(11.28% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and sharply improved free cash flow) and a constructive earnings update with raised EBITDA guidance and high utilization. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and a positive MACD, while valuation is reasonable with a ~3.09% dividend yield. Leverage and industry/operational risks (commodity volatility and long equipment lead times) temper the upside.
Positive Factors
High margins and materially improved free cash flow
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins alongside a dramatic free cash flow improvement indicate durable operating efficiency and strong cash conversion. This enhances reinvestment capacity, supports dividends and buybacks, and reduces reliance on external funding over the medium term.
Very high fleet utilization and long on-location durations
Consistently high utilization and long asset-in-place durations point to sticky, contract-driven revenue and effective asset deployment. High utilization supports steady cash flows, lowers per-unit costs, and limits the need for immediate fleet expansion, strengthening medium-term margin sustainability.
Active capital-structure management to extend maturities
Issuing long-dated senior notes to repay revolver exposure meaningfully reshapes maturities and reduces bank-debt reliance. Extending tenor and locking fixed-rate financing lowers refinancing risk and improves liquidity predictability, bolstering balance-sheet resilience for years ahead.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage despite recent reductions
Relatively high leverage increases interest and refinancing exposure, constraining strategic flexibility in downturns. Even with modest deleveraging, elevated leverage can limit capacity for incremental M&A or capex without further cash generation or capital actions, raising medium-term risk.
Extended equipment lead times
Prolonged supplier lead times slow fleet expansion and replacement, delaying revenue capture from demand upcycles. Longer procurement cycles increase working capital needs, can elevate project execution risk, and may force higher growth capex planning and earlier order commitments.
Exposure to commodity volatility and demand headwinds
Archrock's earnings and utilization are linked to upstream activity and commodity prices. Persistent price swings or falling oil volumes could depress new contract starts and pricing, eroding revenue per operating horsepower and pressuring utilization and margins over the medium term.

Archrock (AROC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Archrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArchrock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Operations and Aftermarket Services. The company engages in the designing, sourcing, owning, installing, operating, servicing, repairing, and maintaining its owned fleet of natural gas compression equipment to provide natural gas compression services to customers in the oil and natural gas industry. It also offers various aftermarket services, such as sale of parts and components; and provision of operation, maintenance, overhaul, and reconfiguration services to customers who own compression equipment. The company was formerly known as Exterran Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Archrock, Inc. in November 2015. Archrock, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyArchrock generates revenue primarily through its Contract Compression Services, which involves leasing and maintaining natural gas compressors for customers in the oil and gas sector. This segment provides a steady stream of income through long-term contracts that ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the Parts & Service segment contributes to revenue by offering maintenance services, spare parts, and customer support, further enhancing the company's profitability. Strategic partnerships with major energy companies and a focus on operational efficiency also play significant roles in driving earnings, as they enable Archrock to secure long-term contracts and optimize service delivery.

Archrock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Archrock reported strong financial and operational performance with significant increases in adjusted EPS and EBITDA, a robust dividend and share repurchase program, and high fleet utilization. The company also has a positive outlook on natural gas demand driven by LNG exports and AI power generation. However, challenges include commodity price volatility, extended equipment lead times, and slight declines in revenue per average operating horsepower.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Adjusted EPS and EBITDA
Compared to the third quarter of 2024, Archrock increased its adjusted EPS by 50% and adjusted EBITDA by more than 46%, showcasing strong operational and financial performance.
Strong Dividend and Share Repurchase Program
Archrock's quarterly dividend per share was up 20% compared to a year ago, with a robust dividend coverage of 3.7x. The company has repurchased more than 3.9 million shares since April 2023.
High Utilization and Fleet Performance
The company's fleet utilization remained at a high rate of 96% for the quarter, maintaining utilization in the mid-90s range for the past 12 quarters.
Positive Outlook on Natural Gas Demand
Archrock expects natural gas demand growth driven by LNG exports and AI-driven power generation, with an expected call on U.S. natural gas production of an incremental 20 to 25 Bcf a day by 2030.
Reduction in Leverage Ratio
The company's leverage ratio at quarter-end was 3.1x, down from 3.3x at the end of the second quarter of 2025, indicating stronger financial stability.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Volatility and Oil Rig Count Declines
The current environment is characterized by commodity price volatility, oil rig count declines, and the possibility that oil volumes could flatten or even decline slightly in 2026.
Slight Decline in Revenue Per Average Operating Horsepower
Third quarter 2025 revenue per average operating horsepower per month declined slightly compared to the second quarter of 2025 due to the sale of high-pressure gas lift units and the impact of the NGCSI fleet acquisition.
Extended Lead Times for Equipment
Lead times for Caterpillar engines have extended to 60 weeks, impacting the company's ability to rapidly respond to market demands.
Company Guidance
During the Archrock Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company highlighted its robust performance and provided updated guidance for the year. Archrock reported a 50% increase in adjusted EPS and a 46% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q3 2024. The company maintained a sector-leading leverage ratio of 3.1x and a dividend coverage of 3.7x, with a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend per share year-over-year. Since the launch of its share repurchase program in April 2023, Archrock has bought back over 3.9 million shares at an average price of $20.21. The company raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $835 million-$850 million and reported a net income of $71 million for the quarter. Growth CapEx guidance for 2026 is set at not less than $250 million, aligning with levels since 2023, while the company continues to anticipate positive free cash flow. Archrock’s fleet utilization remained high at 96%, with stop activity at historically low levels and an average compressor time on location exceeding six years, reflecting strong market dynamics and operational efficiency.

Archrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Archrock demonstrates solid financial health with strong revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The company effectively manages its operations, as evidenced by healthy margins and a robust ROE. While leverage remains a consideration, the consistent equity base and improved cash flow position mitigate associated risks.
Income Statement
Archrock's income statement shows strong performance with a consistent upward trajectory in revenue and profitability. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 34.02% and a net profit margin of 18.43%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. Revenue growth has been robust, with a 6.69% increase in the latest period, reflecting strong market demand. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 35.76% and 52.92%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin compared to the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, which is relatively high but manageable within the industry context. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 19.28%, indicating effective use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 32.26%, suggesting a balanced approach to financing with a reasonable level of equity supporting the asset base. While leverage is on the higher side, the company has maintained a consistent equity base, mitigating some risk.
Cash Flow
Archrock's cash flow statement highlights significant improvement in free cash flow, with an impressive growth rate of 822.81% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.59, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 29.02% suggests that a substantial portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow, enhancing financial flexibility. Despite past volatility, the recent trends in cash flow are positive and support the company's operational needs.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.16B990.34M845.57M781.46M874.97M
Gross Profit921.13M699.09M541.32M426.08M422.54M497.78M
EBITDA760.48M559.97M424.68M308.90M315.38M392.68M
Net Income265.28M172.23M105.00M44.30M28.22M-68.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.41B3.82B2.66B2.60B2.59B2.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.08M4.42M1.34M1.57M1.57M1.10M
Total Debt2.57B2.21B1.60B1.56B1.55B1.71B
Total Liabilities2.99B2.50B1.78B1.74B1.70B1.84B
Stockholders Equity1.42B1.32B871.02M860.69M891.44M935.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow19.31M70.56M11.55M-36.42M139.51M194.98M
Operating Cash Flow531.97M429.59M310.19M203.45M237.40M335.28M
Investing Cash Flow-647.78M-1.16B-232.49M-130.92M16.11M-85.03M
Financing Cash Flow116.14M733.55M-77.92M-72.54M-253.03M-252.84M

Archrock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price26.06
Price Trends
50DMA
25.00
Positive
100DMA
24.81
Positive
200DMA
24.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
55.74
Neutral
STOCH
19.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AROC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.89, above the 50-day MA of 25.00, and above the 200-day MA of 24.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AROC.

Archrock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$432.25M23.257.15%0.63%9.53%15.48%
78
Outperform
$4.57B17.1319.33%3.08%31.94%64.74%
76
Outperform
$3.71B9.5017.49%6.81%-61.94%
72
Outperform
$6.41B17.515.93%3.24%-1.43%-63.13%
70
Outperform
$3.07B31.249.11%6.66%43.66%
68
Neutral
$3.12B46.115.86%4.86%19.43%164.71%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AROC
Archrock
26.06
-0.04
-0.15%
NOV
NOV
17.56
3.29
23.06%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
34.89
7.99
29.70%
USAC
USA Compression
24.68
2.40
10.77%
VAL
Valaris
53.30
6.99
15.09%
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
36.49
-4.25
-10.43%

Archrock Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Prices Upsized 2034 Senior Notes Private Offering
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On December 15, 2025, Archrock announced that its subsidiaries Archrock Services, L.P. and Archrock Partners Finance Corp. had priced an upsized $800 million private offering of 6.000% senior notes due 2034 at par, with the transaction documented in a purchase agreement signed on January 6, 2026 and expected to close on or about January 21, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The notes, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to non-U.S. investors under Regulation S, are expected to generate roughly $789 million in net proceeds, which Archrock intends to use primarily to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, a move that should reduce reliance on bank debt, potentially lower funding risk, and modestly reshape the company’s capital structure while imposing a 90-day restriction on new debt offerings without underwriter consent.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Private Offering
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Archrock, Inc. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Archrock Services, L.P., together with Archrock Partners Finance Corp. as co-issuer, plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in senior notes due 2034 to eligible institutional and non-U.S. investors. Archrock intends to use the net proceeds to repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, a move that would restructure part of its debt profile and potentially lower funding costs, thereby strengthening the company’s balance sheet and financial flexibility within the U.S. natural gas compression sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Archrock Shifts to Online Platform for Updates
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Archrock, Inc. released an investor presentation on its website, indicating a shift towards using its online platform for future updates, potentially impacting how investors access company information.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Plans Redemption of Senior Notes
Neutral
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, Archrock Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Archrock Partners, L.P., plans to redeem all $300 million of its outstanding 6.875% senior notes due in 2027. The redemption is scheduled for November 17, 2025, and will be executed at the principal amount plus accrued interest. This move may impact Archrock’s financial structure and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 07, 2026