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Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
NYSE:AROC

Archrock (AROC) AI Stock Analysis

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AROC

Archrock

(NYSE:AROC)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(12.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and strong cash generation, reinforced by upbeat guidance and operational performance from the latest earnings update. The main offsets are leverage-related risk (and incomplete 2025 statement details), plus technically overbought signals that raise near-term downside risk. Valuation is reasonable but not especially cheap.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent and rising operating cash flow shows durable cash conversion that funds growth capex, dividends, and buybacks without relying solely on external financing. This strengthens financial flexibility through commodity cycles and supports sustained shareholder returns and reinvestment.
High fleet utilization and durable contract demand
Sustained mid-90s utilization and long on-location durations reflect entrenched customer relationships and long-term contract economics. High utilization underpins steady revenue, improves unit economics, and provides pricing leverage and predictability across multi-quarter demand cycles.
Active deleveraging and strategic refinancing
Issuing long-dated senior notes to repay revolver extends maturities and reduces reliance on bank funding, improving liquidity and funding predictability. This structural capital-market action supports a more stable balance sheet and enables disciplined capital allocation over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage and incomplete 2025 detail
Historically elevated leverage increases financial risk in a cyclical services business, constraining flexibility if demand weakens. Missing 2025 balance-sheet line items reduce visibility into current leverage and liquidity, complicating assessment of sustainable capital structure.
Extended equipment lead times
Very long engine lead times limit the company's ability to scale fleet quickly in response to demand, delay high-return new builds, and increase working-capital and project-timing risk. This structural supply constraint can hamper revenue growth and raise replacement cycle costs.
Exposure to commodity cyclicality
Archrock's end markets are sensitive to commodity prices and rig activity; sustained weakness or volatility can reduce service demand, pressure per-horsepower revenue, and increase downtime. This structural cyclicality raises earnings and cash-flow variability over multi-quarter horizons.

Archrock (AROC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Archrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArchrock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Operations and Aftermarket Services. The company engages in the designing, sourcing, owning, installing, operating, servicing, repairing, and maintaining its owned fleet of natural gas compression equipment to provide natural gas compression services to customers in the oil and natural gas industry. It also offers various aftermarket services, such as sale of parts and components; and provision of operation, maintenance, overhaul, and reconfiguration services to customers who own compression equipment. The company was formerly known as Exterran Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Archrock, Inc. in November 2015. Archrock, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyArchrock generates revenue primarily through its Contract Compression Services, which involves leasing and maintaining natural gas compressors for customers in the oil and gas sector. This segment provides a steady stream of income through long-term contracts that ensure consistent cash flow. Additionally, the Parts & Service segment contributes to revenue by offering maintenance services, spare parts, and customer support, further enhancing the company's profitability. Strategic partnerships with major energy companies and a focus on operational efficiency also play significant roles in driving earnings, as they enable Archrock to secure long-term contracts and optimize service delivery.

Archrock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Archrock reported strong financial and operational performance with significant increases in adjusted EPS and EBITDA, a robust dividend and share repurchase program, and high fleet utilization. The company also has a positive outlook on natural gas demand driven by LNG exports and AI power generation. However, challenges include commodity price volatility, extended equipment lead times, and slight declines in revenue per average operating horsepower.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Adjusted EPS and EBITDA
Compared to the third quarter of 2024, Archrock increased its adjusted EPS by 50% and adjusted EBITDA by more than 46%, showcasing strong operational and financial performance.
Strong Dividend and Share Repurchase Program
Archrock's quarterly dividend per share was up 20% compared to a year ago, with a robust dividend coverage of 3.7x. The company has repurchased more than 3.9 million shares since April 2023.
High Utilization and Fleet Performance
The company's fleet utilization remained at a high rate of 96% for the quarter, maintaining utilization in the mid-90s range for the past 12 quarters.
Positive Outlook on Natural Gas Demand
Archrock expects natural gas demand growth driven by LNG exports and AI-driven power generation, with an expected call on U.S. natural gas production of an incremental 20 to 25 Bcf a day by 2030.
Reduction in Leverage Ratio
The company's leverage ratio at quarter-end was 3.1x, down from 3.3x at the end of the second quarter of 2025, indicating stronger financial stability.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Volatility and Oil Rig Count Declines
The current environment is characterized by commodity price volatility, oil rig count declines, and the possibility that oil volumes could flatten or even decline slightly in 2026.
Slight Decline in Revenue Per Average Operating Horsepower
Third quarter 2025 revenue per average operating horsepower per month declined slightly compared to the second quarter of 2025 due to the sale of high-pressure gas lift units and the impact of the NGCSI fleet acquisition.
Extended Lead Times for Equipment
Lead times for Caterpillar engines have extended to 60 weeks, impacting the company's ability to rapidly respond to market demands.
Company Guidance
During the Archrock Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company highlighted its robust performance and provided updated guidance for the year. Archrock reported a 50% increase in adjusted EPS and a 46% rise in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q3 2024. The company maintained a sector-leading leverage ratio of 3.1x and a dividend coverage of 3.7x, with a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend per share year-over-year. Since the launch of its share repurchase program in April 2023, Archrock has bought back over 3.9 million shares at an average price of $20.21. The company raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $835 million-$850 million and reported a net income of $71 million for the quarter. Growth CapEx guidance for 2026 is set at not less than $250 million, aligning with levels since 2023, while the company continues to anticipate positive free cash flow. Archrock’s fleet utilization remained high at 96%, with stop activity at historically low levels and an average compressor time on location exceeding six years, reflecting strong market dynamics and operational efficiency.

Archrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and cash generation momentum (improving margins and rising operating cash flow through 2024, with supportive 2025 net income/revenue), offset by historically elevated leverage and missing/zeroed 2025 line items that reduce confidence in latest-year margin and balance-sheet trend quality.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has grown consistently from 2022–2024 (with ~17% growth in both 2023 and 2024), supporting improving scale. Profitability has strengthened materially versus 2020’s loss, with net margin improving to ~14.9% in 2024 and operating profitability also higher (EBIT margin ~31.7% in 2024). A key limitation is that 2025 annual margin detail is missing (gross profit/EBIT shown as 0), which reduces confidence in trend quality despite higher net income and revenue in 2025.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity remained elevated in 2022–2024 (~1.67–1.83x), which increases financial risk in a cyclical services business. Equity has improved (from ~$871M in 2023 to ~$1.32B in 2024), and returns on equity were solidly positive in 2022–2024 (~5% to ~13%), reflecting improved profitability. However, 2025 annual balance sheet completeness is limited (debt and assets listed as 0), so the latest-year leverage picture cannot be verified from the provided data.
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow increased from ~$203M (2022) to ~$310M (2023) to ~$430M (2024). Operating cash flow comfortably exceeded net income in 2023–2024 (coverage ~2.0–2.3x), indicating strong cash conversion. Free cash flow was volatile (negative in 2022, low in 2023, improved to ~$71M in 2024), and the 2025 annual free cash flow jumps sharply to ~$622M; while supportive, the magnitude and the very high stated growth rate suggest year-to-year volatility and/or non-recurring working-capital/capex timing effects.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.49B1.16B990.34M845.57M781.46M
Gross Profit921.13M0.00699.09M541.32M426.08M422.54M
EBITDA760.48M845.24M559.97M424.68M308.90M315.38M
Net Income265.28M322.29M172.23M105.00M44.30M28.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.41B0.003.82B2.66B2.60B2.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.08M0.004.42M1.34M1.57M1.57M
Total Debt2.57B0.002.21B1.60B1.56B1.55B
Total Liabilities2.99B0.002.50B1.78B1.74B1.70B
Stockholders Equity1.42B1.49B1.32B871.02M860.69M891.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow19.31M622.11M70.56M11.55M-36.42M139.51M
Operating Cash Flow531.97M622.11M429.59M310.19M203.45M237.40M
Investing Cash Flow-647.78M-606.90M-1.16B-232.49M-130.92M16.11M
Financing Cash Flow116.14M0.00733.55M-77.92M-72.54M-253.03M

Archrock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.70
Price Trends
50DMA
28.11
Positive
100DMA
26.23
Positive
200DMA
25.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.58
Negative
RSI
82.01
Negative
STOCH
77.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AROC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.23, above the 50-day MA of 28.11, and above the 200-day MA of 25.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AROC.

Archrock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$5.91B21.8419.33%3.08%31.94%64.74%
75
Outperform
$6.64B6.8536.35%6.81%-61.94%
74
Outperform
$478.00M25.557.15%0.63%9.53%15.48%
69
Neutral
$3.91B31.719.11%6.66%43.66%
66
Neutral
$4.38B63.645.86%4.86%19.43%164.71%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$7.44B52.442.29%3.24%-1.43%-63.13%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AROC
Archrock
33.70
8.14
31.84%
NOV
NOV
20.63
6.23
43.28%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
38.03
12.97
51.75%
USAC
USA Compression
26.94
1.89
7.55%
VAL
Valaris
95.92
57.30
148.37%
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
51.12
11.15
27.91%

Archrock Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

Archrock reported strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 24, 2026, with revenue rising to $377.1 million for the quarter and $1.49 billion for the year, alongside net income of $116.8 million for the quarter and $322.3 million for 2025. EPS nearly doubled year over year, adjusted EBITDA climbed to $900.9 million, and even excluding sizable tax and asset-sale benefits, adjusted EBITDA still exceeded prior guidance.

Operationally, Archrock expanded active horsepower by 8% in 2025, maintained about 95.5% fleet utilization, and executed asset sales of 325,000 horsepower to fund high-return new builds while completing a second accretive acquisition in 18 months. The company reduced its leverage ratio to 2.69x, boosted the quarterly dividend to $0.22 with 4.9x coverage, returned $211.8 million to shareholders, upsized its repurchase program, and refinanced debt with a $800 million senior notes offering to strengthen its balance sheet.

Looking ahead, Archrock issued 2026 guidance calling for net income of $306 million to $356 million and adjusted EBITDA of $865 million to $915 million, including the impact of recently divested compression assets. It plans $250 million to $275 million of growth capital spending in 2026 to support customer expansion while targeting substantial free cash flow and positioning to benefit from sustained U.S. natural gas production growth, LNG-driven demand and power needs from AI-related data centers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Archrock Launches 2026 Executive Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Feb 24, 2026

On February 18, 2026, Archrock’s board compensation committee approved a new 2026 short-term incentive program that sets cash bonus targets for its named executive officers as a percentage of eligible earnings, ranging from 75% to 125%. Payouts can vary from 0% to 200% of target and will be determined by performance against adjusted EBITDA, sustainability metrics, and operating team results, alongside individual leadership and strategic execution contributions, giving the committee wide discretion to align pay with 2026 corporate performance.

The committee also approved base salary increases for 2026 for the same executives, effective April 2026, raising CEO D. Bradley Childers’ base pay from $950,000 to $990,000 and granting smaller but notable increases to the CFO, general counsel, and senior operations leaders. These changes underscore Archrock’s emphasis on retaining top management and tying compensation more closely to financial, operational and sustainability outcomes, which may reinforce management’s focus on execution in a competitive energy services market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Completes $800 Million Senior Notes Private Placement
Positive
Jan 21, 2026

On January 21, 2026, Archrock Services, L.P. and its co-issuer Archrock Partners Finance Corp. completed a private placement of $800 million in 6.000% senior notes due 2034, fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Archrock, Inc. and certain subsidiaries. The notes, issued to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors, carry semi-annual interest payments beginning August 1, 2026, feature a tiered call schedule and change-of-control repurchase rights, and are governed by covenants that restrict additional indebtedness, liens, asset sales, affiliate transactions and certain equity-related actions, though many of these limitations fall away if the notes achieve investment-grade ratings. Archrock said it intends to use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, a move that is expected to improve its debt profile and financial flexibility while reinforcing its position in the U.S. natural gas compression market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Prices Upsized 2034 Senior Notes Private Offering
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On December 15, 2025, Archrock announced that its subsidiaries Archrock Services, L.P. and Archrock Partners Finance Corp. had priced an upsized $800 million private offering of 6.000% senior notes due 2034 at par, with the transaction documented in a purchase agreement signed on January 6, 2026 and expected to close on or about January 21, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The notes, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to non-U.S. investors under Regulation S, are expected to generate roughly $789 million in net proceeds, which Archrock intends to use primarily to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, a move that should reduce reliance on bank debt, potentially lower funding risk, and modestly reshape the company’s capital structure while imposing a 90-day restriction on new debt offerings without underwriter consent.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Archrock Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Private Offering
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Archrock, Inc. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Archrock Services, L.P., together with Archrock Partners Finance Corp. as co-issuer, plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in senior notes due 2034 to eligible institutional and non-U.S. investors. Archrock intends to use the net proceeds to repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, a move that would restructure part of its debt profile and potentially lower funding costs, thereby strengthening the company’s balance sheet and financial flexibility within the U.S. natural gas compression sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026