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Archrock, Inc. (AROC)
NYSE:AROC

Archrock (AROC) AI Stock Analysis

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Archrock

(NYSE:AROC)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(20.12%Upside)
Archrock's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. The earnings call and corporate events are positive, contributing to a robust outlook. However, technical analysis and valuation indicate caution, and high leverage remains a risk.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Impact
The acquisition of Natural Gas Compression Systems is expected to be immediately accretive to both EPS and cash available for dividend per share, with an estimated ~3% FY25 accretion pre-synergies.
Contract Compression Outlook
Strategic leverage to long-term natural gas demand growth, dedicated fleet investments, operational excellence, and well-capitalized producer customers collectively support an attractive contract compression outlook.
Market Positioning
The acquisition of Permian compression provider TOPS provides more scale in the growing Permian area, enhancing AROC's market position.
Negative Factors
Market Underappreciation
Despite outperforming Midstream-at-large on the update, it is believed that the Street may still underappreciate the significance of AROC's revamped growth appetite and peer-leading balance sheet/profitability metrics.
Valuation Concerns
AROC's tilt towards large-HP compression has aligned its fleet with peers, making its valuation discount appear too punitive.

Archrock (AROC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Archrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArchrock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Operations and Aftermarket Services. The company engages in the designing, sourcing, owning, installing, operating, servicing, repairing, and maintaining its owned fleet of natural gas compression equipment to provide natural gas compression services to customers in the oil and natural gas industry. It also offers various aftermarket services, such as sale of parts and components; and provision of operation, maintenance, overhaul, and reconfiguration services to customers who own compression equipment. The company was formerly known as Exterran Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Archrock, Inc. in November 2015. Archrock, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyArchrock generates revenue primarily through its two main business segments: Contract Operations and Aftermarket Services. The Contract Operations segment is the largest revenue driver, involving long-term contracts where Archrock owns, operates, and maintains compression equipment for customers, charging them monthly service fees. This segment provides a stable and recurring revenue stream, as it typically involves multi-year agreements with energy companies. The Aftermarket Services segment includes the sale of parts and services for customers who own their compression equipment. This includes maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, which are essential for ensuring optimal equipment performance and reliability. Additionally, Archrock's strategic partnerships with oil and gas producers and transporters, as well as its large fleet of compression equipment and experienced workforce, further enhance its ability to secure and maintain long-term contracts, contributing significantly to its financial performance.

Archrock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and robust market demand, leading to positive shareholder returns. While there are macroeconomic uncertainties and potential long-term market challenges, the company's current position and strategic initiatives mitigate immediate risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Metrics
Adjusted EPS increased by over 60% and adjusted EBITDA by more than 50% compared to Q1 2024. Fleet utilization remained at 96%.
Shareholder Returns and Financial Stability
Quarterly dividend per share increased by 15% year-over-year with dividend coverage of 3.9 times. A $50 million increase in share repurchase program was approved, with $65 million remaining capacity.
Strategic Acquisitions
Acquisition of NGCS closed on May 1, expected to increase scale and expand customer relationships. Integration of TOPS is progressing as planned.
Strong Market Demand
High levels of utilization and profitability in the compression market. Substantial contracted backlog for 2025 and bookings into 2026.
Capital Allocation and Growth Strategy
Growth capital plan includes $330 million to $370 million investment in fleets, underpinned by multiyear contracts with blue chip customers.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
OPEC's actions and tariff announcements have driven uncertainty and volatility in WTI prices, although no immediate impact on 2025 plans.
Potential Long-term Market Dynamics
Concerns about sustained oil price deterioration impacting long-term growth. Monitoring market developments closely.
Company Guidance
During the Archrock First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reported significant growth across various financial metrics. Adjusted EPS increased by over 60% and adjusted EBITDA grew by more than 50% compared to Q1 2024. Archrock maintained a fleet utilization rate of 96% and expanded its contract compression operating fleet by over 70,000 horsepower, excluding non-strategic asset sales. The company's leverage ratio reached a record low of 3.2 times. Shareholder returns were enhanced with a 15% increase in the quarterly dividend per share and a robust dividend coverage of 3.9 times. Archrock repurchased approximately $23 million in shares, averaging $23.22 per share, and received a $50 million increase in its share repurchase program. The acquisition of NGCS, effective May 1, and the integration of Total Operations and Production Services, are expected to bolster Archrock's scale and customer relationships, contributing to an improved financial outlook for 2025, with an updated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $790 million to $830 million.

Archrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Archrock has shown strong revenue and profit growth with impressive margins, but high leverage and negative free cash flow are concerns.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Archrock has demonstrated impressive revenue growth with a 24.0% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 6.8% rise in the TTM period. Gross profit margin stands at 45.1% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin improved to 16.4% TTM, up from 14.9% in 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability. The company's EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown strength, standing at 33.4% and 49.8% respectively for TTM.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.71, indicating a significant leverage level. However, the equity ratio of 34.0% suggests a stable equity base supporting the company's assets. Return on equity has improved to 15.0% TTM, showcasing better profitability from equity investments. Overall, while leverage is a concern, profitability metrics show positive trends.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.01 in the TTM period, reflecting strong cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow has turned negative due to capital expenditures exceeding cash flow from operations. This shift in free cash flow could constrain financial flexibility if continued.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.24B1.16B990.34M845.57M781.46M874.97M
Gross Profit557.47M505.90M375.08M261.82M243.60M304.64M
EBITDA615.82M549.18M423.30M581.33M506.01M396.93M
Net Income202.55M172.23M105.00M44.30M28.22M-68.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.96B3.82B2.66B2.60B2.59B2.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.84M4.42M1.34M1.57M1.57M1.10M
Total Debt2.31B2.21B1.60B1.56B1.55B1.71B
Total Liabilities2.61B2.50B1.78B1.74B1.70B1.84B
Stockholders Equity1.35B1.32B871.02M860.69M891.44M935.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-19.90M70.56M11.55M-36.42M139.51M194.98M
Operating Cash Flow407.52M429.59M310.19M203.45M237.40M335.28M
Investing Cash Flow-1.24B-1.16B-232.49M-130.92M16.11M-85.03M
Financing Cash Flow834.34M733.55M-77.92M-72.54M-253.03M-252.84M

Archrock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price23.31
Price Trends
50DMA
24.78
Negative
100DMA
24.83
Negative
200DMA
24.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.32
Positive
RSI
34.97
Neutral
STOCH
11.11
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AROC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.56, below the 50-day MA of 24.78, and below the 200-day MA of 24.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AROC.

Archrock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NGNGS
77
Outperform
$308.61M18.256.77%22.64%78.46%
KGKGS
77
Outperform
$2.85B61.673.88%5.55%45.41%-37.84%
75
Outperform
$4.14B19.7417.89%3.24%20.14%43.55%
75
Outperform
$4.09B9.1138.48%1.77%0.77%1.69%
OIOII
72
Outperform
$2.15B12.1626.17%10.04%68.14%
64
Neutral
$2.90B36.78148.57%8.52%10.03%65.28%
52
Neutral
C$2.90B-1.06-3.46%5.87%3.01%-47.13%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AROC
Archrock
23.31
2.33
11.11%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
24.70
4.33
21.26%
OII
Oceaneering International
21.73
-3.35
-13.36%
WFRD
Weatherford International
57.25
-68.60
-54.51%
USAC
USA Compression
24.59
2.48
11.22%
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
31.80
5.76
22.12%

Archrock Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Archrock Expands Credit Facility to Boost Flexibility
Positive
May 16, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Archrock, Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into a Second Amendment to their Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other financial institutions. This amendment increases the credit facility from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion, with the potential to further increase it to $2.25 billion, enhancing Archrock’s financial flexibility and potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AROC) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archrock stock, see the AROC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Archrock Updates Investor Presentation Materials Online
Neutral
May 7, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Archrock, Inc. announced the posting of updated investor presentation materials on its website. This update is part of their ongoing efforts to provide transparency and information to investors, although the materials are not incorporated into any formal financial filings.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Archrock Completes Major Acquisition of NGCSE
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Archrock, Inc. completed its acquisition of Natural Gas Compression Systems, Inc. and NGCSE, Inc., enhancing its scale and operations in key regions. The transaction, valued at $299 million, is expected to be immediately accretive to Archrock’s 2025 earnings and strengthens its position as a premier provider of natural gas compression services in the U.S.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025