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CNX Resources (CNX)
NYSE:CNX
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CNX Resources (CNX) AI Stock Analysis

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CNX

CNX Resources

(NYSE:CNX)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(19.90% Upside)
CNX Resources demonstrates strong cash flow management and operational efficiency, contributing positively to the overall score. Technical analysis reflects market uncertainty, and the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced outlook with promising opportunities offset by uncertainties. Strategic focus on cost management and leveraging new opportunities in AI and environmental attributes could enhance future performance.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow
CNX's cash costs of $0.93/Mcfe were significantly below expectations, driving higher free cash flow of $188MM, which was 68% above consensus.
Financial Performance
CNX delivered a definitive beat in 2Q on the benefits of operating efficiency uptime and well performance, with production beat by 6% and capex 16% below consensus.
Negative Factors
Hedging Strategy
CFPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are being lowered primarily due to projected hedge losses.
Stock Price
The share price is below the price where shares were repurchased last quarter, indicating potential challenges in achieving the price objective.

CNX Resources (CNX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CNX Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCNX Resources Corporation is a leading natural gas exploration and production company based in the United States, primarily focused on the Marcellus Shale region. The company is engaged in the development and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids, offering a range of services that include drilling, production, and operational management. CNX Resources is committed to sustainable and efficient energy practices, leveraging advanced technology and best-in-class operational strategies to optimize resource extraction and minimize environmental impact.
How the Company Makes MoneyCNX Resources generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of natural gas to utility companies, industrial consumers, and other end-users, as well as the sale of natural gas liquids derived from its production processes. Additionally, CNX engages in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable revenue. The company has established significant partnerships and contracts with various stakeholders in the energy sector, which provide a steady demand for its production. Factors contributing to its earnings include the pricing of natural gas in the market, operational efficiencies, and the strategic management of its resource assets.

CNX Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong production performance and promising results from Utica wells, but also noted challenges with maintaining E&P activity levels and uncertainty around key tax credits. Production is expected to decline temporarily before recovering, and while costs are competitive, there are still waiting periods and regulatory uncertainties impacting the business.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Production outperformed expectations due to new TIL (Turn-In-Line) performance, operational execution, production efficiency gains, and base production uptime.
Utica Wells Exceed Expectations
Utica wells performed within expectations, with the latest TILs slightly above expectations, indicating strong potential in the deep Utica play.
Cost Efficiency in Utica Wells
The cost structure of Utica wells is competitive with best in-basin opportunities, indicating potential for future development.
Negative Updates
No Increase in E&P Activity Levels
Current storage levels around 4 TCF lead to no change in E&P activity levels, maintaining the initial set planned for the year.
Sequential Decline in Production
Production is expected to decline sequentially into Q3 and Q4 due to a lull in completion activities until the next batch of TILs in late Q4.
Uncertainty Around 45Z Tax Credit
The ability to fully leverage the 45Z tax credit is subject to final rule-making, with cash benefits not realized until tax returns are filed for 2025 and 2026.
Company Guidance
During the CNX Resources Second Quarter 2025 Q&A Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. Alan Shepard, President and CFO, detailed that the 45Z tax credit program will be first claimable in 2025, with expectations to achieve a $30 million annual run rate through 2029, pending final rule confirmation. Regarding production activity, CNX Resources plans to maintain its current activity levels due to anticipated storage levels reaching around 4 TCF, with no changes to the initial 2025 activity plan. Capital expenditure (CapEx) was noted to be front-loaded in the first half of 2025, with lighter spending projected in Q3 before picking up again in Q4. The company emphasized a capital efficiency ratio of approximately $0.85 per million, with $580 million of production against $500 million CapEx. Additionally, the company discussed their Utica wells, which have exceeded cost targets and are performing above expectations, suggesting competitiveness with Marcellus returns. The potential for increased in-basin demand due to AI-driven data center developments was highlighted as a long-term bullish factor for natural gas prices, although it currently does not affect CNX's hedging strategy.

CNX Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CNX Resources faces profitability challenges with negative net income and fluctuating revenues. However, stable EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational efficiency. Despite high financial leverage, the company's robust equity position provides a strong foundation. Cash flows are strong, highlighting effective cash management. Strategic improvements in cost management and revenue growth are necessary for long-term financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown fluctuating revenue with a decrease in the TTM period compared to previous years. The gross profit margin has been inconsistent, reflecting market volatility in the oil and gas sector. The net profit margin is negative, indicating operational challenges, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, suggesting potential for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat high, implying increased financial leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, the company maintains a strong equity position, indicating long-term solvency. Return on Equity (ROE) is currently negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio remains healthy, reflecting a solid foundation of stockholder investment.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Despite a decline in free cash flow growth, the operating cash flow is robust relative to net income, suggesting strong cash-generating ability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective management in converting earnings to cash despite operational losses. Continued focus on capital expenditures and cash flow management will be crucial.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.46B3.92B2.39B1.08B
Gross Profit415.77M475.50M2.80B1.36B131.99M
EBITDA515.99M2.80B376.96M29.76M81.80M
Net Income-90.49M1.72B-142.08M-498.64M-428.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.51B8.63B8.52B8.10B8.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments17.20M443.00K21.32M3.56M15.62M
Total Debt2.29B2.37B2.39B2.27B2.54B
Total Liabilities4.41B4.27B5.57B4.40B3.62B
Stockholders Equity4.10B4.36B2.95B3.70B4.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow275.45M135.18M669.26M460.50M307.78M
Operating Cash Flow815.78M814.59M1.24B926.36M795.07M
Investing Cash Flow-484.47M-509.38M-528.29M-420.61M-438.97M
Financing Cash Flow-276.68M-326.09M-688.96M-523.78M-350.79M

CNX Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price29.19
Price Trends
50DMA
31.47
Negative
100DMA
31.24
Negative
200DMA
32.23
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.74
Negative
RSI
43.79
Neutral
STOCH
76.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.96, below the 50-day MA of 31.47, and below the 200-day MA of 32.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNX.

CNX Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$4.16B6.8124.36%3.12%58.35%210.80%
79
Outperform
$4.61B12.7019.24%2.40%2.67%-5.79%
77
Outperform
$6.13B27.123.13%5.04%19.55%-81.10%
71
Outperform
$3.42B12.655.42%5.32%-18.08%-49.36%
67
Neutral
$4.13B49.373.73%38.21%-67.24%
65
Neutral
$15.25B7.273.02%5.36%4.27%-62.52%
65
Neutral
$3.71B6.6432.89%51.55%29.12%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNX
CNX Resources
29.19
1.63
5.91%
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.96
-11.56
-32.55%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
24.14
-0.73
-2.94%
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
39.34
-11.49
-22.60%
CRC
California Resources Corp
49.66
-0.83
-1.64%
CHRD
Chord Energy
105.99
-33.68
-24.11%

CNX Resources Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
CNX Resources Appoints Alan Shepard as President
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 11, 2025, CNX Resources Corporation announced the appointment of Alan Shepard as the company’s President, in addition to his role as Chief Financial Officer. Shepard, who joined the company in 2020 and has been CFO since June 2022, succeeds Nicholas DeIuliis, who remains as CEO and a board member. Shepard has played a key role in the company’s strategic initiatives, including the Apex Energy acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNX) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CNX Resources stock, see the CNX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025