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CNX Resources (CNX)
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CNX Resources (CNX) AI Stock Analysis

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CNX

CNX Resources

(NYSE:CNX)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(20.40%Upside)
CNX Resources demonstrates strong cash flow management and operational efficiency, contributing positively to the overall score. Technical analysis reflects market uncertainty, and the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced outlook with promising opportunities offset by uncertainties. Strategic focus on cost management and leveraging new opportunities in AI and environmental attributes could enhance future performance.
Positive Factors
Buybacks and Financial Stability
CNX's extensive hedging strategy provides visibility on continued buybacks and financial stability.
Cash Flow
CNX's cash costs were significantly below expectations, driving higher free cash flow 68% above consensus.
Earnings Beat
CNX delivered a definitive beat in 2Q with production 6% above and capex 16% below consensus.
Negative Factors
CMM Business Growth
Analyst maintains an Underperform rating due to a lack of clarity on a path to grow its CMM business.
Free Cash Flow Expectations
The expected free cash flow for FY25 is below the guidance, indicating potential financial challenges.
Stock Valuation
The stock is valued at a 2% premium to the peer group, potentially limiting its growth potential.

CNX Resources (CNX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CNX Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCNX Resources Corporation, an independent natural gas and midstream company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas properties in the Appalachian Basin. The company operates in two segments, Shale and Coalbed Methane. It produces and sells pipeline quality natural gas primarily for gas wholesalers. The company owns rights to extract natural gas in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio from approximately 526,000 net Marcellus Shale acres; and approximately 610,000 net acres of Utica Shale, as well as rights to extract natural gas from other shale and shallow oil and gas positions from approximately 1,006,000 net acres in Illinois, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. It also owns rights to extract coalbed methane (CBM) in Virginia from approximately 282,000 net CBM acres in Central Appalachia, as well as 1,733,000 net CBM acres in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, and New Mexico. In addition, the company designs, builds, and operates natural gas gathering systems to move gas from the wellhead to interstate pipelines or other local sales points; owns and operates approximately 2,600 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines, as well as various natural gas processing facilities. It also offers turn-key solutions for water sourcing, delivery, and disposal for its natural gas operations and for third parties. The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to CNX Resources Corporation in November 2017. CNX Resources Corporation was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyCNX Resources generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of natural gas. The company drills wells in the Appalachian Basin to extract natural gas, which is then sold to various customers, including utilities, industrial users, and energy marketers. CNX leverages its operational expertise and technological advancements to maximize gas production and minimize costs, thereby enhancing profitability. In addition to direct sales, CNX may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies can also enhance CNX's operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue generation.

CNX Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected solid operational performance and promising developments in environmental attributes and AI-related opportunities. However, uncertainties in tax credit realization, adjustments in CapEx, and potential challenges in in-basin demand create a balanced outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Production outperformance in Q2 due to efficient new TILs, operational execution, production efficiency gains, and high uptime on base production.
Promising Utica Well Results
Utica wells are performing above expectations with costs already below target. The team is focused on further cost reduction and operational efficiency.
Environmental Attribute Free Cash Flow
Revised environmental attribute free cash flow guide stands at $65 million, benefiting from the current market conditions for PA Tier 1 credits.
Exploration of AI and Energy Opportunities
Excitement around AI and Energy Summit and potential for remediated mine gas (RMG) product to be recognized as a sustainable energy solution in AI data centers.
Negative Updates
CapEx and Activity Level Adjustments
CapEx was front half weighted in 2025 with a lull in drilling and completion activities expected in the second half, leading to a sequential production decline until Q4.
Uncertainty in Tax Credit Realization
The realization of the $30 million annual run rate from 45Z tax credits is subject to final rulemaking, creating some uncertainty in cash flow timing.
Potential Challenges with In-Basin Demand
While increased in-basin demand from AI-related projects is bullish long-term, the actual impact on natural gas prices and hedging strategy remains uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the CNX Resources Q&A call for the second quarter of 2025, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic directions. They discussed the eligibility and timing of the 45Z tax credits, which are expected to begin in 2025, with a potential run rate of $30 million per year through 2029. CNX Resources plans to maintain its current activity levels in the E&P business, with a capital efficiency ratio of approximately $0.85 per million. The company outlined that their CapEx, which was front-loaded in 2025, will be lighter in Q3 before picking up again in Q4. They also highlighted the company's commitment to optimizing free cash flow per share and achieving cost efficiencies in the Utica play, which is competitive with the Marcellus in terms of returns. Additionally, CNX discussed in-basin demand growth driven by AI and data centers, emphasizing the potential of their RMG product and its recognition in voluntary and compliance markets. The company remains focused on balancing the development of core fields with new opportunities, particularly in the Utica.

CNX Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CNX Resources faces profitability challenges with negative net income and fluctuating revenues. However, stable EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational efficiency. Despite high financial leverage, the company's robust equity position provides a strong foundation. Cash flows are strong, highlighting effective cash management. Strategic improvements in cost management and revenue growth are necessary for long-term financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown fluctuating revenue with a decrease in the TTM period compared to previous years. The gross profit margin has been inconsistent, reflecting market volatility in the oil and gas sector. The net profit margin is negative, indicating operational challenges, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, suggesting potential for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat high, implying increased financial leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, the company maintains a strong equity position, indicating long-term solvency. Return on Equity (ROE) is currently negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio remains healthy, reflecting a solid foundation of stockholder investment.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Despite a decline in free cash flow growth, the operating cash flow is robust relative to net income, suggesting strong cash-generating ability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective management in converting earnings to cash despite operational losses. Continued focus on capital expenditures and cash flow management will be crucial.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.46B3.92B2.39B1.08B
Gross Profit415.77M475.50M2.80B1.36B131.99M
EBITDA515.99M2.80B376.96M29.76M81.80M
Net Income-90.49M1.72B-142.08M-498.64M-428.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.51B8.63B8.52B8.10B8.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments17.20M443.00K21.32M3.56M15.62M
Total Debt2.29B2.37B2.39B2.27B2.54B
Total Liabilities4.41B4.27B5.57B4.40B3.62B
Stockholders Equity4.10B4.36B2.95B3.70B4.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow275.45M135.18M669.26M460.50M307.78M
Operating Cash Flow815.78M814.59M1.24B926.36M795.07M
Investing Cash Flow-484.47M-509.38M-528.29M-420.61M-438.97M
Financing Cash Flow-276.68M-326.09M-688.96M-523.78M-350.79M

CNX Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.07
Price Trends
50DMA
32.44
Negative
100DMA
31.65
Negative
200DMA
32.74
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.92
Positive
RSI
31.64
Neutral
STOCH
10.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.25, below the 50-day MA of 32.44, and below the 200-day MA of 32.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNX.

CNX Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$6.11B7.0912.64%4.82%31.71%-32.13%
78
Outperform
$4.47B12.2219.24%2.39%2.67%-5.79%
77
Outperform
$3.38B9.097.54%5.28%-14.90%-27.53%
75
Outperform
$4.18B8.4917.86%3.31%41.68%53.13%
72
Outperform
$4.14B7.4032.89%51.55%29.12%
67
Neutral
$15.01B9.777.81%5.64%4.51%-61.80%
67
Neutral
$4.09B48.903.73%38.21%-67.24%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNX
CNX Resources
29.07
4.97
20.62%
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.56
-11.52
-32.84%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
23.82
0.85
3.70%
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
44.09
3.48
8.57%
CRC
California Resources Corp
47.19
4.59
10.77%
CHRD
Chord Energy
105.37
-37.54
-26.27%

CNX Resources Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
CNX Resources Appoints Alan Shepard as President
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 11, 2025, CNX Resources Corporation announced the appointment of Alan Shepard as the company’s President, in addition to his role as Chief Financial Officer. Shepard, who joined the company in 2020 and has been CFO since June 2022, succeeds Nicholas DeIuliis, who remains as CEO and a board member. Shepard has played a key role in the company’s strategic initiatives, including the Apex Energy acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNX) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CNX Resources stock, see the CNX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025