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Cnx Resources (CNX)
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CNX Resources (CNX) AI Stock Analysis

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CNX Resources

(NYSE:CNX)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(2.85%Upside)
CNX Resources' operational efficiency and strong cash flow management are significant positives, providing stability amid industry volatility. The earnings call offers cautious optimism, emphasizing strategic initiatives like a robust share buyback and effective hedging. However, profitability challenges and valuation concerns limit the overall score.
Positive Factors
Financial Outlook
Analyst's NAV-based price target for CNX has increased to $29/share.
Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDAX slightly beat BofA and Consensus estimates due to lower gathering, processing, and transportation taxes.
Negative Factors
Debt and Leverage
CNX is the most leveraged natural gas exploration and production company in the coverage with a net debt and leverage of 2.43x.
Free Cash Flow Expectations
The expected free cash flow for FY25 is $489.7 million, which is below the guidance of approximately $575 million.
Production Uncertainty
High number of wells turned in line during the quarter leads to questions around production cadence for the remainder of the year.

CNX Resources (CNX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CNX Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCNX Resources Corporation, an independent natural gas and midstream company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas properties in the Appalachian Basin. The company operates in two segments, Shale and Coalbed Methane. It produces and sells pipeline quality natural gas primarily for gas wholesalers. The company owns rights to extract natural gas in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio from approximately 526,000 net Marcellus Shale acres; and approximately 610,000 net acres of Utica Shale, as well as rights to extract natural gas from other shale and shallow oil and gas positions from approximately 1,006,000 net acres in Illinois, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. It also owns rights to extract coalbed methane (CBM) in Virginia from approximately 282,000 net CBM acres in Central Appalachia, as well as 1,733,000 net CBM acres in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, and New Mexico. In addition, the company designs, builds, and operates natural gas gathering systems to move gas from the wellhead to interstate pipelines or other local sales points; owns and operates approximately 2,600 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines, as well as various natural gas processing facilities. It also offers turn-key solutions for water sourcing, delivery, and disposal for its natural gas operations and for third parties. The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to CNX Resources Corporation in November 2017. CNX Resources Corporation was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyCNX Resources generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of natural gas. The company drills wells in the Appalachian Basin to extract natural gas, which is then sold to various customers, including utilities, industrial users, and energy marketers. CNX leverages its operational expertise and technological advancements to maximize gas production and minimize costs, thereby enhancing profitability. In addition to direct sales, CNX may engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies can also enhance CNX's operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue generation.

CNX Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights a strong buyback program, better-than-expected Apex wells performance, and strategic positioning validated by recent M&A activity. However, there is concern due to declining NYMEX and NGL pricing and unexpected cash tax payments. Despite these challenges, effective hedging strategies provide some financial stability.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Robust Share Buyback Program
CNX executed a significant share buyback of $125 million in the first quarter, indicating confidence in the company's valuation and future prospects.
Apex Wells Performance
The eight wells brought online from Apex are performing better than expected, providing optimism about long-term production.
High Hedge Coverage
CNX is 85% hedged for the year, which provides stability and reduces exposure to volatile market prices.
Positive M&A Environment
Recent M&A activity in Westmoreland validates CNX's strategic positioning in a highly regarded area of the basin.
Negative Updates
Decline in NYMEX and NGL Pricing
Pricing for NYMEX and NGL has declined, with natural gas differentials widening, although the free cash flow guidance remains unchanged due to hedging.
Cash Taxes Payment
Unexpected cash taxes were paid in the first quarter, although overall tax liability remains de minimis.
Company Guidance
During the CNX Resources Q1 2025 Q&A conference call, several key metrics and operational insights were disclosed. The company reported a significant number of turn-in-lines (TILs) in Q1, with expectations of additional TILs in Q2 and Q4, leading to a production trajectory that may decline into the second half of 2025 and possibly into 2026. Despite fluctuations in NYMEX and NGL pricing and widened natural gas differentials, CNX maintained its free cash flow guidance, leveraging an 85% hedge on its volumes. The company executed a robust $125 million buyback in Q1, highlighting its strategic capital allocation approach. Additionally, new activity in the Southwest Central PA area, such as power generation and data center projects, could boost in-basin demand, with CNX expressing optimism about future developments.

CNX Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CNX Resources faces challenges with profitability, reflected in negative net income and fluctuating revenues. However, operational efficiency remains a strength, with stable EBIT and EBITDA margins. Financial leverage is a concern but is counterbalanced by a robust equity position. Cash flows are strong, highlighting effective cash management despite industry volatility.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown fluctuating revenue with a decrease in the TTM period compared to previous years. The gross profit margin has been inconsistent, reflecting market volatility in the oil and gas sector. The net profit margin is negative, indicating operational challenges, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, suggesting potential for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat high, implying increased financial leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, the company maintains a strong equity position, indicating long-term solvency. Return on Equity (ROE) is currently negative due to net losses, but the equity ratio remains healthy, reflecting a solid foundation of stockholder investment.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Despite a decline in free cash flow growth, the operating cash flow is robust relative to net income, suggesting strong cash-generating ability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating effective management in converting earnings to cash despite operational losses. Continued focus on capital expenditures and cash flow management will be crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.67B1.44B1.46B3.92B2.39B1.08B
Gross Profit759.41M415.77M475.50M2.80B1.36B131.99M
EBITDA249.45M515.99M2.80B376.96M29.76M81.80M
Net Income-295.06M-90.49M1.72B-142.08M-498.64M-428.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.05B8.51B8.63B8.52B8.10B8.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.62M17.20M443.00K21.32M3.56M15.62M
Total Debt2.79B2.29B2.37B2.39B2.27B2.54B
Total Liabilities5.28B4.41B4.27B5.57B4.40B3.62B
Stockholders Equity3.77B4.10B4.36B2.95B3.70B4.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow342.76M275.45M135.18M669.26M460.50M307.78M
Operating Cash Flow846.37M815.78M814.59M1.24B926.36M795.07M
Investing Cash Flow-958.41M-484.47M-509.38M-528.29M-420.61M-438.97M
Financing Cash Flow122.94M-276.68M-326.09M-688.96M-523.78M-350.79M

CNX Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.03
Price Trends
50DMA
32.27
Positive
100DMA
31.27
Positive
200DMA
32.83
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Positive
RSI
60.18
Neutral
STOCH
66.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.24, above the 50-day MA of 32.27, and above the 200-day MA of 32.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNX.

CNX Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (76)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
€12.79B15.0712.28%5.12%3.28%-1.80%
CRCRC
75
Outperform
$4.27B8.6717.86%3.24%41.68%53.13%
MUMUR
75
Outperform
$3.77B10.157.54%4.92%-14.90%-27.53%
VVVVV
73
Outperform
$4.90B18.71174.55%9.56%64.10%
MGMGY
73
Outperform
$4.58B11.8220.85%2.52%8.78%0.56%
NFNFG
70
Outperform
$7.48B188.661.30%2.58%7.14%-90.91%
CNCNX
64
Neutral
$4.92B9.01-7.30%22.23%-130.65%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNX
CNX Resources
34.03
7.72
29.34%
MUR
Murphy Oil
26.44
-14.08
-34.75%
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
82.82
27.80
50.53%
VVV
Valvoline
38.58
-7.27
-15.86%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
23.82
-2.66
-10.05%
CRC
California Resources Corp
47.85
-2.68
-5.30%

CNX Resources Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
CNX Resources Appoints Alan Shepard as President
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 11, 2025, CNX Resources Corporation announced the appointment of Alan Shepard as the company’s President, in addition to his role as Chief Financial Officer. Shepard, who joined the company in 2020 and has been CFO since June 2022, succeeds Nicholas DeIuliis, who remains as CEO and a board member. Shepard has played a key role in the company’s strategic initiatives, including the Apex Energy acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNX) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CNX Resources stock, see the CNX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 10, 2025