Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.45B
• Dividend Yield: 2.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 2.67%
• EPS Growth: -5.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 252
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 185,291,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,872,758
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,200,270
• PEG Ratio: -2.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.76
• 1Y Price Target: $27.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(9.84% Upside)

Magnolia Oil & Gas scores well due to strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production and strategic acquisitions. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are moderate, balancing the overall score.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Magnolia's strong cash flow generation supports its ability to fund operations and investments, ensuring financial stability and growth potential.

Record Production Volumes

Record production volumes indicate operational efficiency and capacity to meet market demand, bolstering long-term revenue prospects.

Efficient Capital Spending

Efficient capital spending reflects strong asset management, allowing Magnolia to maximize returns on investment and sustain growth.

Negative Factors

Decline in Revenue per BOE

A decline in revenue per BOE can impact profitability and cash flow, posing challenges to maintaining revenue growth and financial performance.

Minimal Cash Taxes

Minimal cash taxes may affect long-term financial planning and sustainability, potentially limiting resources for future investments.

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth suggests difficulties in expanding market share or product demand, which could hinder long-term business expansion.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company's assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company sells its produced hydrocarbons to various customers, including large oil and gas companies, through both spot and contract pricing arrangements. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which typically constitutes the majority of its earnings, followed by natural gas and NGLs. Additionally, Magnolia benefits from hedging strategies that mitigate the impact of volatile commodity prices on its cash flow. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capacity and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue generation. Overall, Magnolia's business model is supported by its focus on efficient production techniques, cost management, and strategic asset acquisitions.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Magnolia Oil & Gas demonstrates strong profitability and cash flow generation, supported by a stable balance sheet. While revenue growth has faced headwinds, the company's margins and cash flow metrics remain robust, positioning it well in the competitive oil and gas industry.

Income Statement

Magnolia Oil & Gas has shown strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin above 50% and a net profit margin around 27% in the TTM. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative recently, indicating potential challenges in revenue expansion. Despite this, the company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 in the TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is solid at 25.2%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure, though the decline in ROE from previous years could be a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 36% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 3, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy, supporting the company's ability to fund operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	1.32B	1.23B	1.69B	1.08B	534.51M
Gross Profit	666.17M	672.58M	702.37M	1.26B	742.76M	128.81M
EBITDA	927.01M	922.00M	878.67M	1.33B	801.53M	-1.62B
Net Income	366.43M	366.03M	388.30M	893.84M	559.72M	-1.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.86B	2.82B	2.76B	2.57B	1.75B	1.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	251.76M	260.05M	401.12M	675.44M	366.98M	192.56M
Total Debt	411.63M	392.51M	392.84M	390.38M	388.09M	391.12M
Total Liabilities	862.30M	853.51M	873.55M	832.39M	701.49M	614.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.94B	1.91B	1.69B	1.58B	816.76M	548.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	395.36M	431.74M	430.90M	831.55M	552.05M	87.91M
Operating Cash Flow	863.71M	920.85M	855.79M	1.30B	788.48M	310.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-530.24M	-655.12M	-814.90M	-518.89M	-243.44M	-269.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.39M	-406.80M	-315.21M	-469.34M	-370.61M	-30.20M

Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 22.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.28, below the 50-day MA of 23.84, and below the 200-day MA of 23.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGY.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	―	$3.81B	6.67	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
CRC	―	$3.93B	6.40	24.36%	3.27%	58.35%	210.80%
MGY	―	$4.45B	12.14	19.24%	2.55%	2.67%	-5.79%
MUR	―	$3.98B	14.48	5.42%	4.57%	-18.08%	-49.36%
SM	―	$2.37B	2.91	19.27%	3.88%	28.20%	1.63%
CNX	―	$4.51B	53.94	3.73%	―	38.21%	-67.24%
Sector *	―	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Magnolia Oil & Gas Shines in Earnings Call

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Strong Performance Amid Challenges

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Q2 2025 Results

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is a publicly traded company specializing in oil and gas exploration and production, primarily operating in the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas. The company focuses on generating shareholder value through steady production growth and disciplined capital spending.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 30, 2025, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation announced its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported a net income of $81.0 million, a decrease from the previous year, but achieved a 9% increase in total production volumes, setting a new quarterly record. Magnolia’s strategic acquisitions and increased development area in Giddings are expected to drive approximately 10% production growth for the full year 2025, while maintaining capital efficiency. The company returned 72% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGY) stock is a Sell with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Magnolia Oil & Gas stock, see the MGY Stock Forecast page.