Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.61B
• Dividend Yield: 2.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 2.67%
• EPS Growth: -5.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 252
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 185,291,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,032,705
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,794,804
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.03
• 1Y Price Target: $25.70
• Price Target Upside: 6.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(11.85% Upside)

Magnolia Oil & Gas has a robust overall stock score of 77.8, driven primarily by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights. The company's ability to navigate market challenges while maintaining profitability and increasing shareholder returns is commendable. Technical indicators suggest moderate bullish momentum, while valuation metrics indicate a fair valuation. These factors combined highlight a well-performing stock with potential growth opportunities.

Positive Factors

Capital Returns

MGY consistently executes on the capital returns front with $81.2 million returned to shareholders during 1Q25, aligning with estimates.

Operational Performance

MGY reported excellent results, exceeding expectations across all key financial and operational metrics.

Production Guidance

MGY increased its 2025 total production guidance by approximately 2.0% due to operational execution and well outperformance.

Negative Factors

First Quarter Guidance

The first quarter of 2025 volume guidance is slightly below some expectations, signaling potential challenges in meeting higher forecasts.

Oil Macro Environment

Limited upside due to a weak oil macro keeps the rating at Neutral.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company's assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its developed properties in South Texas. The company makes money by exploring for and producing hydrocarbons, which are then sold to refineries, processing plants, and other customers in the energy market. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil, gas, and NGLs, with pricing largely influenced by market conditions and commodity prices. Magnolia funds its operations through cash flows generated from sales and aims to maintain a strong balance sheet by controlling costs and optimizing production efficiencies. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities and expand its asset base.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Magnolia Oil & Gas demonstrates solid financial health with strong operational margins and prudent financial management, especially with zero debt in the latest period. While the revenue and cash flow show positive trends, maintaining net income growth remains a challenge. The balance sheet's strength and efficient cash generation offer a stable platform for future growth, though the company should focus on leveraging its asset base effectively.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed trend for Magnolia Oil & Gas. The company experienced a moderate increase in revenue to $1.32 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to $1.23 billion in the previous year, indicating a revenue growth rate of approximately 7.24%. The gross profit margin improved to 63.87% in TTM, reflecting efficient cost management. However, net profit margin decreased slightly to 27.81% in TTM from 31.66% last year, primarily due to reduced net income. EBITDA margin remained strong at 68.35% in TTM, showcasing robust operational performance. The company needs to focus on maintaining its net income to improve profitability.

Balance Sheet

Magnolia Oil & Gas exhibits a strong balance sheet with zero debt in TTM, indicating financial prudence and a significant reduction from $409.55 million in the previous year. The company has a high equity ratio of 26.75% in TTM, reflecting a solid equity position. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 48.50%, demonstrating effective utilization of shareholder funds. The company's strong cash position and equity base provide a stable financial foundation, though the company should aim to improve its asset base to enhance long-term growth.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow performance is steady with operating cash flow increasing to $920.85 million in TTM from $855.79 million last year. Free cash flow decreased to $291.40 million in TTM from $430.90 million, mainly due to higher capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.52, indicating strong cash generation ability relative to net income. Despite the decline in free cash flow, the company maintains a healthy cash flow position with adequate liquidity to fund operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	1.32B	1.23B	1.69B	1.08B	534.51M
Gross Profit	666.17M	680.69M	692.89M	1.26B	742.76M	128.81M
EBITDA	876.93M	922.00M	878.67M	1.33B	801.53M	-1.62B
Net Income	366.43M	366.03M	388.30M	893.84M	559.72M	-1.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.86B	2.82B	2.76B	2.57B	1.75B	1.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	251.76M	260.05M	401.12M	675.44M	366.98M	192.56M
Total Debt	0.00	392.51M	409.55M	390.38M	388.09M	391.12M
Total Liabilities	862.30M	853.51M	873.55M	832.39M	701.49M	614.00M
Stockholders Equity	0.00	1.97B	1.69B	1.58B	816.76M	548.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	395.36M	431.74M	430.90M	831.55M	552.05M	87.91M
Operating Cash Flow	863.71M	920.85M	855.79M	1.30B	788.48M	310.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-530.24M	-655.12M	-814.90M	-518.89M	-243.44M	-269.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.39M	-406.80M	-315.21M	-469.34M	-370.61M	-30.20M

Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.62, above the 50-day MA of 23.23, and above the 200-day MA of 23.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGY.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGY	78 Outperform	$4.61B	12.58	19.24%	2.39%	2.67%	-5.79%
MUR	77 Outperform	$3.40B	9.15	7.54%	5.28%	-14.90%	-27.53%
CRC	75 Outperform	$4.26B	6.53	17.86%	3.31%	41.68%	53.13%
VIST	72 Outperform	$4.35B	7.79	32.89%	―	51.55%	29.12%
SM	72 Outperform	$3.15B	3.88	19.27%	2.92%	26.04%	11.96%
CNX	67 Neutral	$4.13B	49.15	3.73%	―	38.21%	-67.24%
Sector *	45 Neutral	AU$1.32B	-8.62	-15.56%	7.70%	2.10%	-32.50%

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 30, 2025, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation announced its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported a net income of $81.0 million, a decrease from the previous year, but achieved a 9% increase in total production volumes, setting a new quarterly record. Magnolia’s strategic acquisitions and increased development area in Giddings are expected to drive approximately 10% production growth for the full year 2025, while maintaining capital efficiency. The company returned 72% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGY) stock is a Sell with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Magnolia Oil & Gas stock, see the MGY Stock Forecast page.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 7, 2025, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation conducted its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key decisions were made. All eight nominees for the board of directors were elected for a one-year term, and the stockholders approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation for 2024. Additionally, it was decided that future say-on-pay votes will be held annually, and KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year.