Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.11B
• Dividend Yield: 2.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 0.68%
• EPS Growth: -11.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 252
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 183,152,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,616,749
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,134,324
• PEG Ratio: -2.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.17
• 1Y Price Target: $26.44
• Price Target Upside: 21.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.32B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(10.55% Upside)

Magnolia Oil & Gas's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production growth and efficient capital management. However, bearish technical indicators and challenges from declining oil prices weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Record Production Growth

Record production growth indicates strong operational capabilities and efficiency, enhancing Magnolia's market position and potential for future revenue increases.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with high liquidity provides financial stability, enabling Magnolia to invest in growth opportunities and weather market fluctuations.

Efficient Capital Management

Efficient capital management ensures sustainable operations and supports long-term profitability by balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Decline in Oil Prices

Declining oil prices can negatively impact revenue, challenging Magnolia's ability to maintain profitability and necessitating strategic adjustments.

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth may indicate market challenges or reduced demand, potentially impacting long-term financial performance if not addressed.

Capital Constraints

Capital constraints limit the ability to expand operations, potentially hindering growth and market competitiveness in a volatile industry.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings Field in South Texas principally comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. As of December 31, 2021, the company's assets consisted of a total leasehold position of 4,71,263 net acres, including 23,785 net acres in Karnes and 4,47,478 net acres in the Giddings area, as well as holds 1,292 net wells with a total production capacity of 66.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its wells. The company operates on a revenue model that includes direct sales to refineries, utility companies, and other end-users in the energy market. Key revenue streams consist of production revenues from its operated and non-operated assets, as well as revenues from hedging activities aimed at managing price volatility in the commodities market. Magnolia also benefits from partnerships and joint ventures that allow for shared resources and reduced operational costs, enhancing its profitability. Factors such as market prices for oil and gas, production levels, and operational efficiency play significant roles in the company's earnings performance.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Magnolia Oil & Gas demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and cash flow metrics. Despite negative revenue growth, the company maintains efficient operations and a strong balance sheet, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and robust cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Magnolia Oil & Gas shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 49% in TTM, although it has decreased from previous years. The net profit margin is healthy at 25.9% TTM, but revenue growth has been negative recently, indicating potential challenges in market conditions. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, suggesting efficient operations despite revenue declines.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 in TTM, indicating prudent financial management. Return on equity is reasonable at 17.6% TTM, though it has declined from previous highs. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 5.2% growth in free cash flow TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.80, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, supporting the company's ability to fund operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.32B	1.23B	1.69B	1.08B	541.30M
Gross Profit	647.43M	680.69M	702.37M	1.26B	742.76M	128.81M
EBITDA	889.87M	922.00M	874.63M	1.32B	796.60M	-1.62B
Net Income	342.10M	366.03M	388.30M	893.84M	417.28M	-1.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.92B	2.82B	2.76B	2.57B	1.75B	1.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	280.49M	260.05M	401.12M	675.44M	366.98M	192.56M
Total Debt	411.54M	410.31M	392.84M	390.38M	388.09M	391.12M
Total Liabilities	917.17M	853.51M	873.55M	832.39M	701.49M	614.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	1.91B	1.69B	1.58B	816.76M	548.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	407.53M	431.74M	430.90M	831.55M	552.05M	87.91M
Operating Cash Flow	892.87M	920.85M	855.79M	1.30B	788.48M	310.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-538.75M	-655.12M	-814.90M	-518.89M	-243.44M	-269.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-349.77M	-406.80M	-315.21M	-469.34M	-370.61M	-30.20M

Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.55, below the 50-day MA of 22.56, and below the 200-day MA of 22.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGY.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIST	76 Outperform	$4.51B	6.67	37.10%	―	50.79%	32.97%
SM	72 Outperform	$2.17B	2.99	16.58%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRC	71 Outperform	$3.93B	10.24	11.06%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
MUR	68 Neutral	$4.49B	32.06	2.76%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
MGY	65 Neutral	$4.11B	12.13	17.51%	2.74%	0.68%	-11.13%
CNX	64 Neutral	$4.99B	25.57	6.98%	―	43.30%	-43.07%

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 29, 2025, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation announced its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a decrease in net income and adjusted net income compared to the previous year. Despite the decline in product prices, the company achieved a record production volume, with a notable increase in production from its Giddings area. Magnolia returned a significant portion of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, maintaining a strong cash balance and an undrawn credit facility. The company plans to continue its current level of drilling activity and expects to close the year with record production levels, emphasizing its commitment to efficient capital spending and shareholder returns.