Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
NYSE:MGY
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Magnolia Oil & Gas
(NYSE:MGY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(12.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage, solid margins, and robust operating cash flow) and a constructive earnings update with reiterated guidance and meaningful free cash flow supporting dividends/buybacks. Offsetting these strengths, technical signals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and the fully unhedged commodity exposure adds downside risk if pricing weakens.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (~0.19 D/E) and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering default and refinancing risk. This allows Magnolia to fund drilling, bolt-ons and shareholder returns through cycles, keeping capital structure resilient over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Geographic concentration
With ~82% of volumes from Giddings, Magnolia faces meaningful single‑play concentration risk. Localized operational, regulatory or infrastructure disruptions there would disproportionately hit production, cash flow and development optionality versus a more diversified asset base.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (~0.19 D/E) and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering default and refinancing risk. This allows Magnolia to fund drilling, bolt-ons and shareholder returns through cycles, keeping capital structure resilient over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.69B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)2.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-1.98%
EPS Growth-14.47%
CountryUS
Employees252
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.74
Shares Outstanding184,947,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,692,372
30 Day Avg. Volume2,336,156
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.28
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)3.10
P/FCF Ratio9.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.76Price Target Upside18.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.60B
Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings ...
How the Company Makes Money
Magnolia Oil & Gas makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from wells it drills and operates (and from non-operated working interests where applicable). Revenue is primarily generate...
Magnolia Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong execution on core operating metrics: production growth (6% YoY), record performance in Giddings, solid profitability (net income ≈$101M), robust adjusted EBITDAX ($253M) and free cash flow (~$146M), and targeted bolt-on acquisitions that expand high-return inventory. Management reiterated 2026 guidance and emphasized disciplined capital allocation (reinvestment rate ~51%), steady shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks), and improved realized oil pricing. Key challenges discussed include a ~4% YoY decline in revenue per BOE driven by weaker NGL and natural gas prices, concentrated exposure to the Giddings area (~82% of volumes), and full unhedged commodity exposure which raises downside risk if prices weaken. On balance the positives—profitable cash generation, accretive acquisitions, strong margins, and maintained guidance—outweigh the risks described.Positive Updates
Production Growth and Record Giddings Output
Total company production rose 6% year-over-year to 102,600 BOE/d in Q1 2026; oil production increased 4% to 40,700 bbl/d. Giddings was the primary growth driver with total Giddings production up 9% YoY and oil production up 8% YoY; Giddings volumes were a company record and represent ~82% of total company volumes.
Negative Updates
Revenue Per BOE Decline Due to NGL and Natural Gas Prices
Total revenue per BOE declined approximately 4% year-over-year in Q1, driven by lower NGL and natural gas prices (partially offset by a small increase in oil prices), negatively impacting top-line per-unit economics.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth and Record Giddings Output
Total company production rose 6% year-over-year to 102,600 BOE/d in Q1 2026; oil production increased 4% to 40,700 bbl/d. Giddings was the primary growth driver with total Giddings production up 9% YoY and oil production up 8% YoY; Giddings volumes were a company record and represent ~82% of total company volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Magnolia reiterated a 2026 plan running two rigs and one completion crew and reiterated full-year drilling & completion capital of $440–$480 million (Q2 D&C capital $120–$125 million), targeting roughly 5% total production growth for 2026 with Q2 volumes estimated at ~105,000 BOE/d; the company expects fully diluted shares of ~185 million, an effective tax rate of ~21% with cash taxes in the mid‑single‑digit percent range, remains fully unhedged (anticipating Q2 oil realizations similar to the Magellan East Houston benchmark), and finished Q1 with $124 million cash and $450 million undrawn on the revolver (total liquidity ~ $574 million) while keeping share repurchases (11.6 million shares remaining authorized) and a recently increased quarterly dividend that annualizes to $0.66 per share as core capital‑allocation priorities.Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32B | 1.31B | 1.32B | 1.23B | 1.69B | 1.08B |
| Gross Profit | 613.64M | 612.67M | 680.69M | 702.37M | 1.26B | 742.76M |
| EBITDA | 878.72M | 883.59M | 922.00M | 874.63M | 1.32B | 796.60M |
| Net Income | 322.15M | 325.25M | 366.03M | 388.30M | 893.84M | 417.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.94B | 2.90B | 2.82B | 2.76B | 2.57B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 124.37M | 266.79M | 260.05M | 401.12M | 675.44M | 366.98M |
| Total Debt | 412.90M | 419.56M | 410.31M | 409.55M | 399.20M | 397.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 908.60M | 903.92M | 853.51M | 873.55M | 832.39M | 701.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.04B | 1.94B | 1.91B | 1.69B | 1.58B | 816.76M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 367.98M | 409.16M | 431.74M | 430.90M | 831.55M | 552.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 850.75M | 878.64M | 920.85M | 855.79M | 1.30B | 788.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -642.29M | -540.75M | -655.12M | -814.90M | -518.89M | -243.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -332.66M | -331.16M | -406.80M | -315.21M | -469.34M | -370.61M |
Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
27.62
Price Trends
29.63
Positive
27.23
Positive
25.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
57.45
Neutral
80.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.27, below the 50-day MA of 29.63, and above the 200-day MA of 25.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGY.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.69B | 14.49 | 16.38% | 2.74% | -1.98% | -14.47% | |
71 Outperform | $7.37B | 18.32 | 30.86% | ― | 66.68% | 44.46% | |
67 Neutral | $5.17B | 3.75 | 27.46% | ― | 38.39% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $7.95B | -2.68 | 2.49% | 4.38% | 27.35% | -66.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $5.80B | 27.85 | 1.64% | 4.15% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
58 Neutral | $5.55B | -2.16 | -13.78% | 3.56% | 3.77% | -192.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
30.17
8.39
38.50%
CNX
CNX Resources
37.37
5.09
15.77%
MUR
Murphy Oil
40.34
19.66
95.10%
SM
SM Energy
34.32
11.43
49.91%
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
79.25
28.34
55.67%
CRC
California Resources Corp
62.47
20.48
48.76%
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Magnolia Oil & Gas Shareholders Back Board and Governance
Positive
May 8, 2026
Magnolia Oil Gas Corporation held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 8, 2026, where stockholders elected eight directors to one-year terms, reflecting broad support for the company’s current board composition and governance stru...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Magnolia Oil & Gas Posts Steady Q1 Results, Advances Consolidation
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Magnolia Oil Gas reported first-quarter 2026 results showing net income of $100.8 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, essentially flat year over year despite a 6% increase in total production to 102.6 Mboe/d and a 4% rise in oil ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.