Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.61B
• Dividend Yield: 2.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 2.67%
• EPS Growth: -5.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 252
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 185,291,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,700,379
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,333,576
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.03
• 1Y Price Target: $26.18
• Price Target Upside: 5.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(13.18% Upside)

Magnolia Oil & Gas scores well due to strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. The technical indicators support a bullish outlook, while the valuation remains attractive. The company's strategic acquisitions and increased production guidance further bolster its position.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

MGY reported excellent results, exceeding expectations across all key financial and operational metrics.

Production and Operational Performance

MGY raised its full-year total production growth guidance to 7.0%-9.0%, supported by improved overall well performance and shallower than expected declines.

Shareholder Returns

Magnolia Oil & Gas consistently executes on the capital returns front with $81.2 million returned to shareholders during 1Q25, aligning with estimates.

Negative Factors

Oil Market Conditions

Limited upside due to a weak oil macro keeps the rating at Neutral.

Production Guidance

The first quarter of 2025 volume guidance is slightly below some expectations, signaling potential challenges in meeting higher forecasts.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) is an independent exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States, primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale region of Texas. The company is dedicated to maximizing shareholder value through efficient and innovative operations, leveraging advanced technologies and best practices in the oil and gas industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company sells its produced hydrocarbons to various customers, including large oil and gas companies, through both spot and contract pricing arrangements. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which typically constitutes the majority of its earnings, followed by natural gas and NGLs. Additionally, Magnolia benefits from hedging strategies that mitigate the impact of volatile commodity prices on its cash flow. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capacity and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue generation. Overall, Magnolia's business model is supported by its focus on efficient production techniques, cost management, and strategic asset acquisitions.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Magnolia Oil & Gas demonstrates strong financial health with solid profitability metrics, effective cost management, and robust cash flow generation. The company has successfully navigated past financial difficulties and is on a positive trajectory in terms of revenue and profit growth. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, providing stability and flexibility for future growth opportunities. However, careful monitoring of cash flow trends and capital expenditures is essential to sustain long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Magnolia Oil & Gas shows a solid financial performance with a strong recovery from previous negative EBIT and net loss, achieving a TTM gross profit margin of 51.5% and a net profit margin of 28.5%. The company has demonstrated a positive trend in revenue growth, with a TTM revenue increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year. The EBIT margin is robust at 38.9%, and EBITDA margin stands at 70.7%, indicating efficient operations and cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 19.3%, indicating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is high at 69.3%, highlighting strong capitalization. The company maintains a solid asset base with significant equity, though slight fluctuations in equity and liabilities should be monitored.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a stable cash flow generation capability with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.43, indicating efficient cash conversion. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.76, showcasing good cash flow management despite a slight decrease from previous periods. The company has been able to maintain positive free cash flow, although the growth rate has slowed, suggesting potential areas of improvement in capital expenditure management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	1.32B	1.23B	1.69B	1.08B	534.51M
Gross Profit	666.17M	680.69M	702.37M	1.26B	742.76M	128.81M
EBITDA	876.93M	922.00M	878.67M	1.33B	801.53M	-1.62B
Net Income	366.43M	366.03M	388.30M	893.84M	559.72M	-1.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.86B	2.82B	2.76B	2.57B	1.75B	1.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	251.76M	260.05M	401.12M	675.44M	366.98M	192.56M
Total Debt	411.63M	392.51M	392.84M	390.38M	388.09M	391.12M
Total Liabilities	862.30M	853.51M	873.55M	832.39M	701.49M	614.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.94B	1.91B	1.69B	1.58B	816.76M	548.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	395.36M	431.74M	430.90M	831.55M	552.05M	87.91M
Operating Cash Flow	863.71M	920.85M	855.79M	1.30B	788.48M	310.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-530.24M	-655.12M	-814.90M	-518.89M	-243.44M	-269.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.39M	-406.80M	-315.21M	-469.34M	-370.61M	-30.20M

Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.67, above the 50-day MA of 23.44, and above the 200-day MA of 23.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGY.

Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	82 Outperform	$4.16B	6.81	24.36%	3.11%	58.35%	210.80%
MGY	79 Outperform	$4.61B	12.70	19.24%	2.34%	2.67%	-5.79%
SM	72 Outperform	$3.16B	4.01	19.27%	2.86%	28.20%	1.63%
MUR	71 Outperform	$3.42B	12.65	5.42%	5.17%	-18.08%	-49.36%
CNX	67 Neutral	$4.13B	49.37	3.73%	―	38.21%	-67.24%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.26B	7.31	3.02%	5.32%	4.27%	-62.52%
VIST	65 Neutral	$3.78B	6.72	32.89%	―	51.55%	29.12%

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Magnolia Oil & Gas Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 30, 2025, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation announced its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported a net income of $81.0 million, a decrease from the previous year, but achieved a 9% increase in total production volumes, setting a new quarterly record. Magnolia’s strategic acquisitions and increased development area in Giddings are expected to drive approximately 10% production growth for the full year 2025, while maintaining capital efficiency. The company returned 72% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns.