Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY)
NYSE:MGY
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Magnolia Oil & Gas
(NYSE:MGY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(23.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
MGY’s score is driven primarily by solid profitability/cash generation and improved leverage, alongside constructive price trend signals. The main offsets are weakening recent revenue/FCF momentum and elevated technical momentum readings, while valuation and a shareholder-return-focused 2026 outlook provide moderate support.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Cash Generation
Sustained high operating margins and strong operating cash flow (OCF >> net income) indicate durable earnings power for an E&P. This supports reinvestment, routine capex, and consistent shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) through commodity cycles, improving funding optionality and financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue & FCF Momentum Weakness
A large TTM revenue decline and sharply negative recent free-cash-flow growth signal weaker top-line realization or volume timing that can impair reinvestment and returns. If sustained, this reduces room for growth initiatives, makes planning harder, and heightens sensitivity to commodity swings.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Cash Generation
Sustained high operating margins and strong operating cash flow (OCF >> net income) indicate durable earnings power for an E&P. This supports reinvestment, routine capex, and consistent shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) through commodity cycles, improving funding optionality and financial resilience.
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Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.59B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)2.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-0.31%
EPS Growth-11.02%
CountryUS
Employees252
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding185,655,930
10 Day Avg. Volume2,427,198
30 Day Avg. Volume2,802,477
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.28
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)3.10
P/FCF Ratio9.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.29Price Target Upside20.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.56B
Magnolia Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. Its properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings ...
How the Company Makes Money
Magnolia Oil & Gas makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from wells it drills and operates (and from non-operated working interests where applicable). Revenue is primarily generate...
Magnolia Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized consistently strong operational execution, significant free cash flow generation, disciplined capital allocation, cost reductions, reserve adds at low F&D costs, and robust shareholder returns (dividend increase and buybacks). Headwinds include lower commodity realizations (oil down >15% y/y), short-term weather impacts, continued commodity price volatility due to an unhedged position, and a competitive M&A market for large PDP-heavy assets. Management reiterated a conservative, capital-efficient plan for 2026 with moderate (~5%) production growth, flat-to-similar capex, and emphasis on returning excess cash to shareholders.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth and Q4 Record
Full-year 2025 production grew 11% to ~99,800 BOE/day; oil production grew 4% and averaged nearly 40,000 Bbl/day. Fourth quarter 2025 set a company record at ~103,800 BOE/day (reported as nearly 104,000 BOE/day) and 40,700 Bbl/day, a sequential increase of ~3%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Commodity Realizations and Revenue/BOE
Oil price realizations decreased by more than 15% year-over-year and total revenue per BOE declined ~13% quarter-over-quarter, which reduced margins sequentially despite operational improvements.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth and Q4 Record
Full-year 2025 production grew 11% to ~99,800 BOE/day; oil production grew 4% and averaged nearly 40,000 Bbl/day. Fourth quarter 2025 set a company record at ~103,800 BOE/day (reported as nearly 104,000 BOE/day) and 40,700 Bbl/day, a sequential increase of ~3%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 drilling, completions and facilities capital of $440–$480 million (midpoint roughly flat to 2025, including similar non‑operated capital), with Q1 D&C spending ~ $125 million (the year’s highest quarter). They forecast total 2026 production growth of ~5% (Q1 production ~102,000 BOE/d, which includes ~1,500 BOE/d of winter weather impact) and expect oil volumes to grow roughly 2–3% (oil mix around the high‑30s to ~40% range); oil differentials are assumed at about a $3/bo discount to Magellan East Houston and the company remains fully unhedged. Financial and share metrics for Q1 include a fully diluted share count ~187 million (≈4% lower YoY) and an effective tax rate of ~21% (deferred); liquidity at year‑end was ~$267 million cash plus a $450 million undrawn revolver (~$717 million total). Management reiterated a disciplined plan (no additional rig planned) and noted maintenance‑type spend expectations in the roughly $400 million range while retaining flexibility to deploy excess cash to dividends, buybacks, or opportunistic M&A.Magnolia Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31B | 1.32B | 1.23B | 1.69B | 1.08B |
| Gross Profit | 612.67M | 680.69M | 702.37M | 1.26B | 742.76M |
| EBITDA | 883.59M | 922.00M | 874.63M | 1.32B | 796.60M |
| Net Income | 325.25M | 366.03M | 388.30M | 893.84M | 417.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.90B | 2.82B | 2.76B | 2.57B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 266.79M | 260.05M | 401.12M | 675.44M | 366.98M |
| Total Debt | 419.56M | 410.31M | 409.55M | 399.20M | 397.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 903.92M | 853.51M | 873.55M | 832.39M | 701.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.91B | 1.69B | 1.58B | 816.76M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 409.16M | 431.74M | 430.90M | 831.55M | 552.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 878.64M | 920.85M | 855.79M | 1.30B | 788.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -540.75M | -655.12M | -814.90M | -518.89M | -243.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -331.16M | -406.80M | -315.21M | -469.34M | -370.61M |
Magnolia Oil & Gas Technical Analysis
Neutral
27.62
Price Trends
28.95
Negative
25.90
Positive
24.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
36.50
Neutral
12.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.43, below the 50-day MA of 28.95, and above the 200-day MA of 24.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MGY.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.74B | 10.72 | 10.34% | 3.56% | 15.08% | -2.06% | |
75 Outperform | $5.59B | 12.49 | 16.76% | 2.74% | -0.31% | -11.02% | |
75 Outperform | $6.90B | 3.32 | 14.00% | 4.38% | 17.24% | -15.87% | |
70 Outperform | $6.75B | 6.91 | 37.31% | ― | 52.24% | 41.74% | |
66 Neutral | $5.46B | 8.21 | 15.52% | ― | 48.76% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $5.59B | 94.30 | 2.03% | 4.15% | -10.87% | -73.21% |
* Energy Sector Average
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
29.24
8.13
38.51%
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VIST
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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Magnolia Oil & Gas Posts 2025 Results, Boosts Shareholder Returns
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Magnolia Oil Gas reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing lower net income and adjusted EBITDAX versus 2024 despite strong production growth and disciplined capital spending. Net income fell 20% in the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.