tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD)
:CHRD

Chord Energy (CHRD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,089 Followers

Top Page

CH

Chord Energy

(NASDAQ:CHRD)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$113.00
▲(14.49%Upside)
Chord Energy's overall stock score reflects a strong financial foundation and attractive valuation. While technical indicators and earnings call insights are positive, some caution is warranted due to potential production declines and pricing volatility. The company's strategic initiatives and strong cash flow generation support a favorable outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Chord Energy started the year strong with a free cash flow beat, continuing a robust buyback pace.
Operational Efficiency
Improving capital efficiency differentiates Chord Energy Corporation, leading to an upgrade to Buy rating.
Shareholder Returns
CHRD returned $299m to shareholders in 1Q, leaning heavily into buybacks, equating to a 17% return.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
Per unit LOE may temporarily increase to over $10/boe in Q2'25, due to higher workover activity following winter downtime.
Oil Market Risks
Weakening near-term oil macro risks may lead to decreased activity to preserve Chord Energy Corporation's strong balance.
Operational Risks
There is a risk of delaying roughly 25% of gross TILs if low oil prices continue and the spot crew does not return.

Chord Energy (CHRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Chord Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company. It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyChord Energy generates revenue through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company capitalizes on its strategic locations and technological advancements to enhance production efficiency and output. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas to refineries and other end-users. Additionally, Chord Energy may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other energy firms to optimize resource development and distribution. Market factors such as oil and gas prices, regulatory policies, and production costs significantly influence the company's earnings.

Chord Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 10.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Chord Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, marked by solid free cash flow, shareholder returns, and operational efficiency improvements. However, the company faces challenges due to a deteriorating pricing outlook and potential production decline in the fourth quarter. Despite these challenges, the company's strong balance sheet and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow
Chord Energy delivered adjusted free cash flow of approximately $291 million for the first quarter, supported by strong execution in well performance and favorable capital guidance.
Robust Shareholder Returns
Chord maintained shareholder returns at 100% of free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, repurchasing $216.5 million or about 2 million shares during the quarter.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
The company reduced its full-year capital guidance by $30 million due to program efficiencies, without impacting production volumes.
Successful Implementation of Longer Laterals
Chord successfully drilled and completed its first four-mile lateral, leading to a well cost approximately $1 million below the original budget.
Strong Balance Sheet and Low Leverage
Chord has a leverage ratio of 0.3 times, maintaining strong liquidity and balance sheet strength versus peer groups.
Negative Updates
Deteriorated Pricing Outlook
The pricing outlook has deteriorated and volatility has increased since the beginning of the year, impacting market conditions.
Potential Production Decline in Q4
Chord anticipates oil production will fall as they reduce frac crew count, leading to lower TILs and potential production volume decline in the fourth quarter.
Challenges with Oil Differentials
Oil differentials averaged $2.30 below WTI, weakening slightly from the prior quarter, reflecting some market challenges.
Company Guidance
During the Chord Energy First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Danny Brown highlighted several key metrics and strategic decisions that underscored the company's solid performance. Chord delivered an adjusted free cash flow of approximately $291 million, exceeding expectations, which allowed for robust shareholder returns, including the repurchase of $216.5 million, or about 2 million shares, and an additional $45 million since April 1. The company maintained a leverage ratio of approximately 0.3 times and reduced its share count by about 9% since the Enerplus transaction. A $30 million reduction in full-year capital guidance was announced, attributed to improved program efficiencies, with no change to volume expectations. Chord's strategic focus includes plans to increase the share of four-mile laterals in its inventory to enhance economic returns, with a goal of converting over 80% of its inventory to long laterals. Additionally, the company emphasized its strong balance sheet and operational flexibility to navigate price volatility, while maintaining a commitment to sustainability.

Chord Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Chord Energy exhibits strong financial performance, highlighted by robust revenue growth and profitability. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage and efficient cash management. However, a slight decline in operational efficiency suggests room for improvement.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Chord Energy's income statement reflects a strong financial performance over the TTM period. The company has achieved a Gross Profit Margin of 46.47% and a Net Profit Margin of 16.16%, indicating efficient cost management and robust profitability. The Revenue Growth Rate of 34.73% from the previous year highlights significant expansion. However, a slight decline in EBIT Margin from 32.66% to 21.77% suggests some operational challenges. Overall, the company demonstrates healthy revenue growth and profitability, though attention to operational efficiency is warranted.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Chord Energy shows a solid financial foundation with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.10, reflecting low leverage and financial stability. The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.75%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 66.76% suggests a strong reliance on equity financing, which enhances financial stability. While the company's low debt levels are a positive, the moderate ROE implies room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Chord Energy's cash flow statement is robust, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 33.68%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.48 demonstrates efficient conversion of income to cash, supporting liquidity and operational resilience. Furthermore, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.44 highlights effective cash management. Despite strong cash flows, maintaining these levels while managing capital expenditures remains crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.38B5.25B3.90B3.65B1.58B1.08B
Gross Profit1.37B1.31B1.44B1.79B670.09M240.05M
EBITDA2.32B2.28B1.97B1.74B123.44M-3.77B
Net Income869.11M848.63M1.02B1.43B188.96M-3.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.06B13.03B6.93B6.63B3.03B2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.75M36.95M318.00M593.15M172.11M15.86M
Total Debt968.01M1.04B430.62M417.42M407.14M733.60M
Total Liabilities4.44B4.33B1.85B1.95B1.81B1.15B
Stockholders Equity8.62B8.70B5.08B4.68B1.03B915.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.08B918.15M914.18M1.39B698.39M-43.62M
Operating Cash Flow2.35B2.10B1.82B1.92B914.14M298.19M
Investing Cash Flow-1.85B-1.75B-1.43B-682.56M-920.77M-102.28M
Financing Cash Flow-401.00M-624.46M-664.70M-823.10M161.19M-195.70M

Chord Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price98.70
Price Trends
50DMA
94.89
Positive
100DMA
99.46
Negative
200DMA
110.63
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.56
Positive
RSI
50.91
Neutral
STOCH
14.03
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 98.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.97, above the 50-day MA of 94.89, and below the 200-day MA of 110.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHRD.

Chord Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$6.04B6.4819.20%2.57%21.73%1.48%
80
Outperform
$5.70B6.6112.64%5.23%31.71%-32.13%
MUMUR
75
Outperform
$3.27B8.807.54%5.62%-14.90%-27.53%
MGMGY
73
Outperform
$4.42B11.3820.85%2.59%8.78%0.56%
CNCNX
69
Neutral
$4.82B9.01-7.30%22.23%-130.65%
68
Neutral
$14.83B9.706.36%5.29%4.12%-71.24%
CRCRK
54
Neutral
$8.42B-14.17%0.66%-1.73%-608.98%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CHRD
Chord Energy
98.70
-60.06
-37.83%
CRK
Comstock Resources
28.76
18.38
177.07%
CNX
CNX Resources
33.79
9.49
39.05%
MTDR
Matador Resources
48.22
-10.13
-17.36%
MUR
Murphy Oil
22.93
-16.56
-41.93%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
22.94
-1.81
-7.31%

Chord Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Chord Energy Completes $750 Million Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 14, 2025

Chord Energy Corporation, on March 13, 2025, completed its offering of $750 million in senior unsecured notes due 2033, guaranteed by its subsidiaries. The proceeds were used to purchase and redeem existing notes, repay credit facility borrowings, and cover related expenses, impacting the company’s debt structure and financial strategy.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025