Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQ:CHRD
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Chord Energy
(NASDAQ:CHRD)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$151.00
▲(22.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
The score is driven by strong financial quality (notably low leverage and solid cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook emphasizing free cash flow, efficiency gains, and shareholder returns. Offsetting this are elevated valuation risk (very high P/E) and evidence of cooling earnings/free cash flow in 2025, while technicals are supportive but not strongly bullish.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Chord's low debt-to-equity (~0.10–0.19) provides durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles, allowing the company to fund maintenance capex, pay dividends and buybacks, and absorb price shocks without relying on expensive external financing.
Negative Factors
2025 Earnings Weakness
A clear 2025 step‑down in revenue and net income highlights the company's earnings cyclicality. Reduced earnings power makes cash flow and return outcomes more sensitive to commodity moves, complicating multi‑period planning and potentially pressuring shareholder distributions if weakness persists.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Chord's low debt-to-equity (~0.10–0.19) provides durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles, allowing the company to fund maintenance capex, pay dividends and buybacks, and absorb price shocks without relying on expensive external financing.
Read all positive factors
Chord Energy (CHRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.25B
Dividend Yield5.73%
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)120.5
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth-7.12%
EPS Growth-95.64%
CountryUS
Employees762
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding56,686,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,011,054
30 Day Avg. Volume1,174,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.66
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio7.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$166.46Price Target Upside34.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)17.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.35B
Chord Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company. It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. The company was founded in 2007 and i...
How the Company Makes Money
Chord Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from its operated and non-operated wells in the Williston Basin. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to...
Chord Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChord Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: substantial free cash flow, disciplined capital returns ($6.7B returned since 2021), meaningful run-rate improvements ($160M in 2025 representing ~23% of 2026 estimated FCF), and measurable cost/efficiency gains (breakeven down >10%, F&D trending ~22% lower). Management delivered confident 2026 guidance (157k–161k bbl/d, $1.4B capex, ~$700M FCF at stated price deck) while highlighting execution resilience and ongoing optimization opportunities (marketing/midstream savings, surfactant trials, longer laterals). The primary negatives were strategic: a deliberate low-to-no oil growth stance for 2026 (maintenance-focused), some infrastructure/local water disposal investment needs, and that the full benefits of newly TILed four-mile wells are not yet captured in reserve filings. Overall, the positives (cash generation, cost reductions, inventory upgrades and shareholder returns) materially outweigh the limited operational and forward-looking risks discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Adjusted free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $175,000,000, substantially exceeding expectations; approximately 50% of that amount was returned to shareholders (base dividend $0.30 per share and the remainder via share repurchases). Since 2021 the company has returned $6.7 billion to shareholders (noted as higher than current market cap).
Negative Updates
Low-to-No Oil Growth Stance for 2026
2026 plan is described as a low-to-no oil growth program (maintenance-focused), which limits near-term production growth despite strong FCF generation. Management emphasized resiliency over growth and would alter the program only if commodity prices materially change.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Adjusted free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $175,000,000, substantially exceeding expectations; approximately 50% of that amount was returned to shareholders (base dividend $0.30 per share and the remainder via share repurchases). Since 2021 the company has returned $6.7 billion to shareholders (noted as higher than current market cap).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chord’s 2026 guidance targets average oil production of 157,000–161,000 barrels per day with $1.4 billion of capital spend and roughly $700 million of free cash flow at $64/bbl oil and $3.75/MMBtu gas; the program runs five rigs (split roughly evenly between three‑ and four‑mile wells), one full‑time frac crew (spot frac to drop by end of summer) and expects ~80% of TILs to be longer laterals. Management described a low‑to‑no oil growth plan with modest single‑digit shallowing of the corporate decline rate, noted Q4 adjusted free cash flow of $175 million (about 50% returned to shareholders after a $0.30/share base dividend), and reiterated 2025 highlights that oil volumes beat guidance by >1,000 bpd while 2025 capital was ≈$60 million below expectations. They also emphasized longer‑lateral progress (80% conversion by year‑end 2025), a >10% reduction in weighted‑average inventory breakeven, $160 million of 2025 run‑rate controllable FCF improvements (≈23% of estimated 2026 FCF), ~22% lower company F&D costs over recent years, improved per‑foot D&C and program‑level capital efficiency, and that since the 2024 Enerplus combination capital has fallen ≈$100 million while oil production rose ~6,000 bpd.Chord Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.88B | 5.25B | 3.90B | 3.65B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 315.01M | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.79B | 670.09M |
| EBITDA | 1.79B | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.78B | 377.10M |
| Net Income | 44.46M | 848.63M | 1.02B | 1.86B | 319.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.39B | 13.03B | 6.93B | 6.63B | 3.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.53M | 36.95M | 318.00M | 593.15M | 172.11M |
| Total Debt | 1.50B | 1.04B | 535.43M | 491.13M | 436.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.31B | 4.33B | 1.85B | 1.95B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.08B | 8.70B | 5.08B | 4.68B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 692.72M | 918.15M | 914.18M | 1.39B | 698.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.82B | 1.92B | 914.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.81B | -1.75B | -1.43B | -682.56M | -920.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -82.09M | -624.46M | -664.70M | -823.10M | 161.19M |
Chord Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
123.58
Price Trends
121.32
Positive
107.29
Positive
102.33
Positive
Market Momentum
1.91
Positive
42.18
Neutral
20.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 123.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 136.77, above the 50-day MA of 121.32, and above the 200-day MA of 102.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHRD.
Chord Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $7.88B | 6.96 | 13.92% | 3.14% | 5.10% | -14.88% | |
75 Outperform | $5.78B | 12.49 | 16.76% | 2.74% | -0.31% | -11.02% | |
74 Outperform | $8.25B | 120.54 | 0.54% | 5.73% | -7.12% | -95.64% | |
72 Outperform | $14.39B | 6.12 | 24.51% | 3.80% | -8.39% | 76.90% | |
72 Outperform | $10.25B | 7.77 | 20.93% | 1.00% | 23.03% | 239.04% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | $5.12B | 17.04 | 16.88% | ― | 59.93% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
CHRD
Chord Energy
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.