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Chord Energy
(NASDAQ:CHRD)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$129.00
▼(-6.76% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
CHRD scores highest on earnings-call-driven outlook and cash generation (strong FCF and efficiency gains with disciplined, largely flat CapEx), supported by a conservative balance sheet. The score is held back by recent profitability deterioration and weakening FCF growth versus prior peaks, plus only neutral technical momentum and a valuation profile that is helped by the dividend but not clearly cheap on P/E.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently large operating cash flow and a Q1 adjusted FCF of $324M, with a company forecast of ~$1.4B for 2026, indicate durable cash-generation capacity. This supports debt reduction, sustained shareholder returns, and self-funded maintenance-plus programs even through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility & Profitability Weakness
Sharp deterioration from prior multi-year highs to a TTM net loss highlights pronounced cyclicality. If weaker margins and negative earnings persist, the company’s ability to reinvest, compound equity value, and sustain returns to shareholders could be structurally impaired despite positive cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently large operating cash flow and a Q1 adjusted FCF of $324M, with a company forecast of ~$1.4B for 2026, indicate durable cash-generation capacity. This supports debt reduction, sustained shareholder returns, and self-funded maintenance-plus programs even through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Chord Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
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The Fly
The FlyChord Energy (CHRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.78B
Dividend Yield3.7%
Average Volume (3M)866.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-0.99%
EPS Growth-107.05%
CountryUS
Employees676
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.05
Shares Outstanding56,299,183
10 Day Avg. Volume799,150
30 Day Avg. Volume866,482
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.66
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio7.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$161.90Price Target Upside17.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)19.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.89B
Chord Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
As an independent enterprise, Chord Energy Corporation specializes in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon resources. Its core activities include the sourcing, development, and recovery of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Chord Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—generated from its Williston Basin operations. Revenue is recognized when production is delivered to purchasers under sales arrangements, gen...
Chord Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, substantial free cash flow ($324M in Q1; ~$1.4B expected for 2026 at $80/bbl), meaningful cost reductions (37% D&C cost/ft; 22%–25% lower F&D), successful execution of four-mile laterals, and active shareholder returns, while acknowledging external macro risks (market volatility, backwardation), midstream constraints, limited hedges beyond 2026, and some LOE increases. Overall, the positives — robust cash generation, efficiency gains, inventory depth, and disciplined capital allocation — materially outweigh the macro and timing-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow of $324 million in Q1, substantially exceeding expectations; company forecasts approximately $1.4 billion of free cash flow for 2026 assuming $80/bbl oil and $3.25/MMBtu gas.
Negative Updates
Macro Volatility and Market Backwardation
Management highlighted unprecedented commodity market volatility and persistent backwardation driven by excess low-cost oil capacity, creating uncertainty around the durability of price signals and constraining growth decisions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow of $324 million in Q1, substantially exceeding expectations; company forecasts approximately $1.4 billion of free cash flow for 2026 assuming $80/bbl oil and $3.25/MMBtu gas.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chord updated 2026 guidance with a modest upside to volumes (+2,000 bbl/d) while keeping drilling & completions capital and overall CapEx unchanged from the February plan, expecting a flat‑to‑slight‑growth volume outlook under its multi‑year maintenance‑plus program; operationally it is running five rigs, one full‑time frac crew and one spot frac crew (spot to drop ~midyear), expects ~80% of TILs to be longer laterals split fairly evenly between three‑ and four‑milers, and is scaling four‑mile activity to ~40% of TILs and ~60% of spuds. Financially, Q1 adjusted free cash flow was $324M (Q1 shareholder returns of $145M and $175M to the balance sheet after lease acquisitions), and assuming $80/bbl oil and $3.25/MMBtu gas for the balance of 2026 the company projects ~ $1.4B of free cash flow (with the 2,000 bbl/d uplift yielding >$40M incremental FCF vs February); hedges cover ≈33% of 2026 oil volumes and <15% of 2027 (with ability to lock up to 55% in a prompt quarter), company realizing modest premiums to WTI, and highlighting sustained efficiency gains (D&C cost/ft down ~37% over four years; company F&D trends ~22–25% lower).Chord Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.33B | 4.88B | 5.25B | 3.90B | 3.65B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 858.51M | 315.01M | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.79B | 670.09M |
| EBITDA | 1.64B | 1.79B | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.78B | 377.10M |
| Net Income | -66.77M | 44.46M | 848.63M | 1.02B | 1.86B | 319.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.24B | 13.39B | 13.03B | 6.93B | 6.63B | 3.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 225.80M | 189.53M | 36.95M | 318.00M | 593.15M | 172.11M |
| Total Debt | 1.62B | 1.50B | 1.04B | 535.43M | 491.13M | 436.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.19B | 5.31B | 4.33B | 1.85B | 1.95B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.05B | 8.08B | 8.70B | 5.08B | 4.68B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 500.92M | 692.72M | 918.15M | 914.18M | 1.39B | 698.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.89B | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.82B | 1.92B | 914.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -1.81B | -1.75B | -1.43B | -682.56M | -920.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 136.93M | -82.09M | -624.46M | -664.70M | -823.10M | 161.19M |
Chord Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
138.36
Price Trends
129.30
Positive
132.51
Positive
113.12
Positive
Market Momentum
2.58
Negative
67.12
Neutral
87.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.99, above the 50-day MA of 129.30, and above the 200-day MA of 113.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHRD.
Chord Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.24B | 11.03 | 19.30% | 0.98% | 16.84% | 82.31% | |
71 Outperform | $12.84B | 8.70 | 25.11% | 2.77% | -17.38% | 54.99% | |
71 Outperform | $5.93B | 14.78 | 16.38% | 2.49% | -1.98% | -14.47% | |
69 Neutral | $7.78B | -133.70 | -0.83% | 3.76% | -0.99% | -107.05% | |
66 Neutral | $6.00B | 12.83 | 8.74% | 2.83% | -2.91% | -47.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | $3.73B | 7.53 | 20.78% | ― | 17.31% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
CHRD
Chord Energy
140.38
39.76
39.52%
APA
APA
37.32
19.67
111.40%
CRK
Comstock Resources
13.26
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-18.20%
MTDR
Matador Resources
49.89
3.66
7.92%
RRC
Range Resources
40.14
5.58
16.14%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
25.71
2.48
10.69%
Chord Energy Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Chord Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 1, 2026
Chord Energy held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on April 29, 2026, where investors voted on board composition, executive pay and the external auditor mandate. All 11 director nominees, including Douglas Brooks, Daniel Brown and Anne Tayl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.