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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD)
:CHRD
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Chord Energy (CHRD) AI Stock Analysis

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CHRD

Chord Energy

(NASDAQ:CHRD)

Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$123.00
▲(16.73% Upside)
Chord Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and solid earnings call outcomes. While technical analysis presents some mixed signals, the company's low leverage and strategic initiatives provide a favorable outlook amidst market challenges.
Positive Factors
Capital Returns
Chord Energy started the year strong with a free cash flow beat, continuing a robust buyback pace.
Financial Performance
CHRD reported excellent results with a beat on all fronts.
Operational Efficiency
CHRD effectively reiterated plans but shaved $30m off capex on efficiency gains with an ongoing focus on reducing total cost structure by 10%.
Negative Factors
Market Conditions
Weakening near-term oil macro risks may lead to decreased activity to preserve Chord Energy Corporation's strong balance.
Oil Prices
There is a risk of delaying roughly 25% of gross TILs if low oil prices continue and the spot crew does not return.
Operating Expenses
Per unit LOE may temporarily increase to over $10/boe in Q2'25, due to higher workover activity following winter downtime.

Chord Energy (CHRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Chord Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChord Energy (CHRD) is a prominent player in the energy sector, primarily focused on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company is engaged in the extraction and development of hydrocarbon resources, leveraging advanced technological solutions to optimize production. Chord Energy operates in various key locations known for rich deposits, ensuring a steady supply of energy resources to meet market demands.
How the Company Makes MoneyChord Energy generates revenue through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company capitalizes on its strategic locations and technological advancements to enhance production efficiency and output. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas to refineries and other end-users. Additionally, Chord Energy may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other energy firms to optimize resource development and distribution. Market factors such as oil and gas prices, regulatory policies, and production costs significantly influence the company's earnings.

Chord Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 17.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Chord Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, marked by solid free cash flow, shareholder returns, and operational efficiency improvements. However, the company faces challenges due to a deteriorating pricing outlook and potential production decline in the fourth quarter. Despite these challenges, the company's strong balance sheet and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow
Chord Energy delivered adjusted free cash flow of approximately $291 million for the first quarter, supported by strong execution in well performance and favorable capital guidance.
Robust Shareholder Returns
Chord maintained shareholder returns at 100% of free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, repurchasing $216.5 million or about 2 million shares during the quarter.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
The company reduced its full-year capital guidance by $30 million due to program efficiencies, without impacting production volumes.
Successful Implementation of Longer Laterals
Chord successfully drilled and completed its first four-mile lateral, leading to a well cost approximately $1 million below the original budget.
Strong Balance Sheet and Low Leverage
Chord has a leverage ratio of 0.3 times, maintaining strong liquidity and balance sheet strength versus peer groups.
Negative Updates
Deteriorated Pricing Outlook
The pricing outlook has deteriorated and volatility has increased since the beginning of the year, impacting market conditions.
Potential Production Decline in Q4
Chord anticipates oil production will fall as they reduce frac crew count, leading to lower TILs and potential production volume decline in the fourth quarter.
Challenges with Oil Differentials
Oil differentials averaged $2.30 below WTI, weakening slightly from the prior quarter, reflecting some market challenges.
Company Guidance
During the Chord Energy First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Danny Brown highlighted several key metrics and strategic decisions that underscored the company's solid performance. Chord delivered an adjusted free cash flow of approximately $291 million, exceeding expectations, which allowed for robust shareholder returns, including the repurchase of $216.5 million, or about 2 million shares, and an additional $45 million since April 1. The company maintained a leverage ratio of approximately 0.3 times and reduced its share count by about 9% since the Enerplus transaction. A $30 million reduction in full-year capital guidance was announced, attributed to improved program efficiencies, with no change to volume expectations. Chord's strategic focus includes plans to increase the share of four-mile laterals in its inventory to enhance economic returns, with a goal of converting over 80% of its inventory to long laterals. Additionally, the company emphasized its strong balance sheet and operational flexibility to navigate price volatility, while maintaining a commitment to sustainability.

Chord Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Chord Energy demonstrates strong financial performance with substantial revenue growth, robust profitability, and effective cash management. Despite some operational efficiency challenges, the overall financial health is positive.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Chord Energy's income statement reflects a strong financial performance over the TTM period. The company has achieved a Gross Profit Margin of 46.47% and a Net Profit Margin of 16.16%, indicating efficient cost management and robust profitability. The Revenue Growth Rate of 34.73% from the previous year highlights significant expansion. However, a slight decline in EBIT Margin from 32.66% to 21.77% suggests some operational challenges. Overall, the company demonstrates healthy revenue growth and profitability, though attention to operational efficiency is warranted.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Chord Energy shows a solid financial foundation with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.10, reflecting low leverage and financial stability. The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.75%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 66.76% suggests a strong reliance on equity financing, which enhances financial stability. While the company's low debt levels are a positive, the moderate ROE implies room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Chord Energy's cash flow statement is robust, with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 33.68%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.48 demonstrates efficient conversion of income to cash, supporting liquidity and operational resilience. Furthermore, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.44 highlights effective cash management. Despite strong cash flows, maintaining these levels while managing capital expenditures remains crucial.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.25B3.90B3.65B1.58B1.08B
Gross Profit1.31B1.44B1.79B670.09M240.05M
EBITDA2.28B1.97B1.74B123.44M-3.77B
Net Income848.63M1.02B1.43B188.96M-3.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.03B6.93B6.63B3.03B2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.95M318.00M593.15M172.11M15.86M
Total Debt1.04B430.62M417.42M407.14M733.60M
Total Liabilities4.33B1.85B1.95B1.81B1.15B
Stockholders Equity8.70B5.08B4.68B1.03B915.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow918.15M914.18M1.39B698.39M-43.62M
Operating Cash Flow2.10B1.82B1.92B914.14M298.19M
Investing Cash Flow-1.75B-1.43B-682.56M-920.77M-102.28M
Financing Cash Flow-624.46M-664.70M-823.10M161.19M-195.70M

Chord Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price105.37
Price Trends
50DMA
102.33
Positive
100DMA
99.48
Positive
200DMA
107.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.58
Positive
RSI
50.16
Neutral
STOCH
17.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 105.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.89, above the 50-day MA of 102.33, and below the 200-day MA of 107.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHRD.

Chord Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$0.006.9917.07%2.25%16.20%-12.42%
83
Outperform
$6.15B7.1312.64%4.82%31.71%-32.13%
78
Outperform
$4.61B12.4119.24%2.39%2.67%-5.79%
77
Outperform
$3.40B9.157.54%5.28%-14.90%-27.53%
67
Neutral
$4.13B49.153.73%38.21%-67.24%
56
Neutral
C$4.11B-0.170.41%6.51%5.45%-66.94%
42
Neutral
$4.77B-3.18%0.66%17.60%-385.47%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CHRD
Chord Energy
106.44
-36.58
-25.58%
CRK
Comstock Resources
16.26
6.62
68.67%
CNX
CNX Resources
29.22
3.29
12.69%
MTDR
Matador Resources
47.80
-6.52
-12.00%
MUR
Murphy Oil
23.85
-11.62
-32.76%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas
24.14
0.34
1.43%

Chord Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Chord Energy Completes $750 Million Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 14, 2025

Chord Energy Corporation, on March 13, 2025, completed its offering of $750 million in senior unsecured notes due 2033, guaranteed by its subsidiaries. The proceeds were used to purchase and redeem existing notes, repay credit facility borrowings, and cover related expenses, impacting the company’s debt structure and financial strategy.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025