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Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQ:CHRD
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Chord Energy
(NASDAQ:CHRD)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$142.00
▲(12.37% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial foundations (low leverage and solid cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook emphasizing free cash flow, cost improvements, and shareholder returns. Technicals are supportive but not overheated, while the main drag is valuation (high P/E despite a strong dividend yield) alongside the sector’s cyclicality and the company’s low-growth 2026 stance.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Chord's very low debt-to-equity over recent years provides durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. Low leverage reduces refinancing risk, supports sustained dividends and buybacks, and allows capital program adjustments without forcing distress-driven asset sales.
Strong free cash flow and capital returns
Consistent, material FCF generation and a demonstrated track record of returning capital (dividends and buybacks) indicate durable cash conversion and a shareholder-friendly allocation policy. Persistent FCF supports balance sheet repair, optionality on reinvestment, and stable distributions.
Sustained efficiency and inventory improvements
Execution on longer laterals, lower breakevens and falling F&D/D&C costs are structural productivity gains. These improvements permanently raise margin resilience, lower required commodity prices to breakeven, and increase per-dollar hydrocarbons produced, sustaining long-term cash generation.
Negative Factors
Low-to-no oil growth plan
A deliberate maintenance-focused plan limits reserve replacement and production scaling, constraining volume-driven upside. Over several quarters this reduces optionality to grow revenue and may force reliance on cost cuts and buybacks rather than organic production-driven expansion.
Commodity-price sensitivity
As an upstream E&P, Chord's cash flow and capital program remain materially tied to oil and gas prices. Lower price realizations would compress margins, reduce FCF and limit capital returns, making long-term plans and shareholder distributions contingent on volatile market conditions.
Localized midstream / water disposal needs
Localized water and midstream constraints create recurring capital and operational risk. Incremental infrastructure spending raises sustaining capex and LOE, can bottleneck activity pacing, and may erode some efficiency gains if not proactively funded and integrated into long-term development planning.
Chord Energy (CHRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.22B
Dividend Yield5.73%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)120.5
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth8.43%
EPS Growth-86.63%
CountryUS
Employees762
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding56,842,530
10 Day Avg. Volume1,618,809
30 Day Avg. Volume1,081,795
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.66
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio7.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.42Price Target Upside7.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)7.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.49B
Chord Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionChord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company. It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyChord Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs)—from its operated and non-operated wells in the Williston Basin. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to third-party purchasers under marketing and sales arrangements, with realized prices generally linked to market benchmarks (for example, WTI for oil and regional indices for gas) and adjusted for quality, location differentials, and transportation/handling and processing arrangements. The largest revenue stream is typically crude oil sales, with additional contributions from natural gas and NGL sales.
The company’s ability to generate cash flow is driven by (1) production volumes (influenced by drilling cadence, well performance, and base decline), (2) realized commodity prices, and (3) operating and capital efficiency (lease operating costs, gathering/processing/transportation costs, and drilling & completion capital). Like other E&P companies, Chord may use commodity derivative instruments to manage price risk; when used, these contracts can affect realized revenues and cash flows by offsetting or amplifying movements in commodity prices. Other income, if any, can come from items incidental to E&P operations (e.g., asset sales or other non-core items), but the core business model is upstream production and sale of oil, gas, and NGLs.
Chord Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
Breaks revenue into business lines (e.g., production, midstream, marketing), revealing which activities generate income and how diversified the company is. Helps identify concentration risk, margin differences between segments, and where management is prioritizing growth or cost control.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChord Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: substantial free cash flow, disciplined capital returns ($6.7B returned since 2021), meaningful run-rate improvements ($160M in 2025 representing ~23% of 2026 estimated FCF), and measurable cost/efficiency gains (breakeven down >10%, F&D trending ~22% lower). Management delivered confident 2026 guidance (157k–161k bbl/d, $1.4B capex, ~$700M FCF at stated price deck) while highlighting execution resilience and ongoing optimization opportunities (marketing/midstream savings, surfactant trials, longer laterals). The primary negatives were strategic: a deliberate low-to-no oil growth stance for 2026 (maintenance-focused), some infrastructure/local water disposal investment needs, and that the full benefits of newly TILed four-mile wells are not yet captured in reserve filings. Overall, the positives (cash generation, cost reductions, inventory upgrades and shareholder returns) materially outweigh the limited operational and forward-looking risks discussed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Adjusted free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $175,000,000, substantially exceeding expectations; approximately 50% of that amount was returned to shareholders (base dividend $0.30 per share and the remainder via share repurchases). Since 2021 the company has returned $6.7 billion to shareholders (noted as higher than current market cap).
2026 Guidance: Healthy FCF at Moderate Activity
2026 plan targets average oil volumes of 157,000–161,000 barrels per day with capital of $1,400,000,000. At benchmark prices of $64/bbl oil and $3.75/MMBtu gas, Chord expects approximately $700,000,000 of free cash flow for 2026.
Operational Efficiency and Inventory Improvements
Achieved the 2025 goal of converting 80% of inventory to long laterals (four-mile) by year-end ahead of schedule. The company lowered the weighted-average breakeven of its inventory by more than 10% and reported program-level capital efficiency improvements versus prior years.
Material Run-Rate FCF Improvements
Chord drove $160,000,000 of free cash flow improvement in 2025 from controllable items (less capital, lower LOE, lower production taxes, lower G&A, improved marketing). Management says the $160,000,000 represents ~23% of estimated 2026 free cash flow and is largely run-rate.
Capital Discipline Since Enerplus Combination
Since combining with Enerplus in 2024, capital spending has been lowered nearly $100,000,000 while delivering ~6,000 barrels per day more oil production. In 2025 overall capital came in approximately $60,000,000 lower than expectations.
Lower F&D and Per-Foot Costs
Company-level future F&D costs have trended ~22% lower over the past few years; per-foot drilling and completion costs have decreased due to longer laterals and improved execution, improving capital efficiency (volume delivered relative to capital spent is more efficient for 2026 vs. 2025).
Marketing / Midstream Savings Opportunity
Management highlighted $30,000,000–$50,000,000 of annual run-rate savings potential from marketing/midstream contract renegotiations and optimization (oil, gas and water) as legacy contracts come up for renewal in a more competitive cost environment.
Execution Resilience and Weather Recovery
Despite severe weather (Winter Storm Fern) activity and production impacts were limited; management reported quick recovery and that first-quarter 2026 program remains in line with previous expectations. The company is running five rigs (mix of 3- and 4-mile wells) and one full-time frac crew, with ~80% of TILs expected to be longer laterals.
Technology Trials and Production Optimization
Chord has pumped 19 chemical/surfactant treatments to date for production improvements and is studying results; management indicated potential to apply successful treatments across a large base (nearly 5,000 PDP wells).
Negative Updates
Low-to-No Oil Growth Stance for 2026
2026 plan is described as a low-to-no oil growth program (maintenance-focused), which limits near-term production growth despite strong FCF generation. Management emphasized resiliency over growth and would alter the program only if commodity prices materially change.
Four-Mile Lateral Impact Not Fully Captured in 2025 Reserves
While three-mile results were captured in the 2025 reserves, the more recently TILed four-mile wells are not fully reflected in the 2025 PUD/reserve metrics, meaning reserve-based metrics may understate longer-lateral benefits until future filings.
Localized Water / Midstream Needs
Management identified localized water disposal capacity and infrastructure as an area that can require incremental midstream capital; water systems are more localized than oil/gas and some targeted investment may be needed to bring disposal closer to wellbores despite overall basin capacity being adequate.
GOR Trends and Portfolio Nuances
As activity shifts modestly west, oil cut is expected to improve slightly, but core Bakken wells are showing rising GORs on a declining base and gas/oil balance has nuances that require monitoring. Management expects only minimal changes to corporate decline and oil/gas mix over the near term.
Commodity Price Sensitivity and Strategic Flexibility
Management acknowledged that significantly lower oil prices would prompt reassessment of the plan and activity; this exposure to commodity-price risk remains a fundamental downside scenario for operations and capital deployment decisions.
Company Guidance
Chord’s 2026 guidance targets average oil production of 157,000–161,000 barrels per day with $1.4 billion of capital spend and roughly $700 million of free cash flow at $64/bbl oil and $3.75/MMBtu gas; the program runs five rigs (split roughly evenly between three‑ and four‑mile wells), one full‑time frac crew (spot frac to drop by end of summer) and expects ~80% of TILs to be longer laterals. Management described a low‑to‑no oil growth plan with modest single‑digit shallowing of the corporate decline rate, noted Q4 adjusted free cash flow of $175 million (about 50% returned to shareholders after a $0.30/share base dividend), and reiterated 2025 highlights that oil volumes beat guidance by >1,000 bpd while 2025 capital was ≈$60 million below expectations. They also emphasized longer‑lateral progress (80% conversion by year‑end 2025), a >10% reduction in weighted‑average inventory breakeven, $160 million of 2025 run‑rate controllable FCF improvements (≈23% of estimated 2026 FCF), ~22% lower company F&D costs over recent years, improved per‑foot D&C and program‑level capital efficiency, and that since the 2024 Enerplus combination capital has fallen ≈$100 million while oil production rose ~6,000 bpd.Chord Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong overall financial quality supported by a conservatively levered balance sheet (low debt-to-equity) and solid operating cash flow that consistently exceeds net income. The main offset is clear cyclical volatility, with a notable step-down in 2025 revenue, earnings, and free cash flow versus 2024.Income Statement
Profitability has been strong across most of the period, with healthy EBITDA margins (roughly mid-30s to 50% from 2022–2025) and solid net margins in 2023–2024. However, earnings power has cooled materially in 2025: revenue declined (-5.5% YoY) and net income fell sharply versus 2024, indicating margin compression and/or a weaker commodity price backdrop. Results also show cyclicality risk, evidenced by the large loss year in 2020.73
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservatively levered with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity generally ~0.10–0.19 in 2022–2025), supporting resilience through commodity cycles. Equity has scaled significantly since 2021, and returns on equity were very strong in 2022–2023 before normalizing in 2024–2025. Key watch-out: profitability volatility can still pressure returns even with low leverage.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow has remained strong (about $1.8–$2.1B in 2023–2025) and consistently exceeds net income, which supports earnings quality. Free cash flow is positive in recent years, but declined in 2025 (down ~20% YoY) and covers a smaller portion of net income than in prior years, suggesting heavier reinvestment and/or weaker operating conditions. The 2020 negative free cash flow reinforces the sector’s cyclicality.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.88B | 5.25B | 3.90B | 3.65B | 1.58B |
| Gross Profit | 315.01M | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.79B | 670.09M |
| EBITDA | 1.79B | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.78B | 377.10M |
| Net Income | 44.46M | 848.63M | 1.02B | 1.86B | 319.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.39B | 13.03B | 6.93B | 6.63B | 3.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.53M | 36.95M | 318.00M | 593.15M | 172.11M |
| Total Debt | 1.50B | 1.04B | 535.43M | 491.13M | 436.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.31B | 4.33B | 1.85B | 1.95B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.08B | 8.70B | 5.08B | 4.68B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 692.72M | 918.15M | 914.18M | 1.39B | 698.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.82B | 1.92B | 914.14M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.81B | -1.75B | -1.43B | -682.56M | -920.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -82.09M | -624.46M | -664.70M | -823.10M | 161.19M |
Chord Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
126.37
Price Trends
102.61
Positive
96.71
Positive
97.84
Positive
Market Momentum
6.94
Negative
75.39
Negative
83.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 126.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.44, above the 50-day MA of 102.61, and above the 200-day MA of 97.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHRD.
Chord Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $7.16B | 6.96 | 13.92% | 3.14% | 14.77% | -17.38% | |
75 Outperform | $7.22B | 120.54 | 0.54% | 5.73% | 8.43% | -86.63% | |
75 Outperform | $5.58B | 12.49 | 16.76% | 2.74% | 0.68% | -11.13% | |
74 Outperform | $12.67B | 6.12 | 24.51% | 3.80% | 4.88% | -41.34% | |
72 Outperform | $10.21B | 12.75 | 15.87% | 1.00% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | $6.06B | 17.04 | 16.88% | ― | 35.41% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
CHRD
Chord Energy
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23.78
23.03%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.