AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQ:APP
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AppLovin
(NASDAQ:APP)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$429.00
▲(11.03% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven mainly by standout profitability and free-cash-flow strength, reinforced by confident guidance and continued capital returns. Offsetting this are durability risks signaled by the sharp TTM revenue decline and leverage, while technical indicators and a high P/E point to less favorable near-term setup and valuation risk.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained, very large free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds share repurchases, R&D and product rollouts, and cushions operating volatility. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins capital returns and ability to invest in scaling new verticals without immediate external financing.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM Revenue Contraction
A pronounced trailing revenue decline introduces durability risk: even with strong margins and cash flow, sustained top-line weakness would stress growth prospects, reduce optionality for new initiatives, and make current margin levels harder to maintain if scale economics reverse.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained, very large free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds share repurchases, R&D and product rollouts, and cushions operating volatility. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins capital returns and ability to invest in scaling new verticals without immediate external financing.
Read all positive factors
AppLovin (APP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$130.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)68.5
Beta (1Y)3.58
Revenue Growth28.69%
EPS Growth134.97%
CountryUS
Employees876
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.24
Shares Outstanding307,070,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,279,101
30 Day Avg. Volume5,134,975
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)106.94
Price to Sales (P/S)41.65
P/FCF Ratio57.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue22.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda31.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$653.65Price Target Upside69.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)15.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.02B
AppLovin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a...
How the Company Makes Money
AppLovin makes money primarily by generating revenue from its advertising and software offerings that facilitate and optimize the buying, selling, and serving of digital ads (especially in mobile apps). Key revenue streams include: (1) Advertising...
AppLovin Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there might be opportunities or challenges in cost management.
Shows profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there might be opportunities or challenges in cost management.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAppLovin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes exceptional operating and financial performance (very strong YoY revenue, adjusted EBITDA growth, margins, and free cash flow), successful capital returns, and a confident outlook driven by internal AI and product execution. Key growth initiatives (e-commerce/self-serve, generative-AI creative tools, AXON marketing) show promising early traction and attractive unit economics in pilots, but remain early and constrained by data penetration, creative supply, and conversion funnel breakage. Management acknowledges market skepticism and competition risks but argues the company’s model and network effects create a durable moat. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum is balanced against execution and market-adoption risks for newer initiatives.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $1.66B, up 66% year-over-year; full-year revenue $5.48B, up 70% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Market Sentiment and Stock Volatility
Management acknowledged recent stock volatility and negative market sentiment driven by concerns about AI competition, despite internal operating strength.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $1.66B, up 66% year-over-year; full-year revenue $5.48B, up 70% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AppLovin guided Q1 2026 revenue of $1.745–$1.775 billion (5%–7% sequential growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.465–$1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~84%. For context, Q4 revenue was $1.66 billion (up 66% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion (84% margin; +82% YoY) and free cash flow of $1.31 billion (+88% YoY), while full‑year 2025 revenue was $5.48 billion (+70% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $4.51 billion (+87% YoY, 82% margin) and FCF $3.95 billion (+91%), ending cash ~$2.5 billion; the company repurchased ~800k shares for $482 million in Q4 (6.4M shares / $2.58 billion for the full year) and has ~$3.28 billion of remaining repurchase authorization.AppLovin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.48B | 4.71B | 3.28B | 2.82B | 2.79B |
| Gross Profit | 4.82B | 3.54B | 2.22B | 1.56B | 1.81B |
| EBITDA | 4.35B | 2.34B | 1.15B | 513.77M | 580.54M |
| Net Income | 3.33B | 1.58B | 356.71M | -192.75M | 35.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.26B | 5.87B | 5.36B | 5.85B | 6.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.49B | 741.41M | 502.15M | 1.08B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 3.54B | 3.56B | 3.18B | 3.28B | 3.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.12B | 4.78B | 4.10B | 3.95B | 4.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.13B | 1.09B | 1.26B | 1.90B | 2.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.94B | 2.09B | 1.06B | 412.11M | 360.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.97B | 2.10B | 1.06B | 412.77M | 361.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 402.81M | -106.75M | -77.83M | -1.37B | -1.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.59B | -1.75B | -1.56B | -526.85M | 3.11B |
AppLovin Technical Analysis
Negative
386.37
Price Trends
445.47
Negative
539.76
Negative
515.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-20.81
Positive
38.95
Neutral
22.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 386.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 437.59, below the 50-day MA of 445.47, and below the 200-day MA of 515.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APP.
AppLovin Risk Analysis
AppLovin disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AppLovin reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AppLovin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $10.50B | 41.10 | 16.89% | ― | 20.82% | 41.82% | |
72 Outperform | $130.31B | 68.47 | 249.20% | ― | 28.69% | 134.97% | |
70 Outperform | $5.27B | 63.09 | 10.31% | ― | 18.99% | 66.43% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $337.56M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
56 Neutral | $9.85B | -46.16 | -12.57% | ― | -8.23% | 48.57% | |
55 Neutral | $399.02M | -50.84 | -1.15% | ― | -28.29% | -126.12% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
APP
AppLovin
386.37
154.15
66.38%
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9.87
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TTD
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22.05
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5.66
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U
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22.75
5.50
31.88%
SRAD
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16.95
-3.73
-18.04%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.