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AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQ:APP
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AppLovin
(NASDAQ:APP)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$504.00
▲(33.91% Upside)
APP scores well on fundamentals and earnings momentum, driven by exceptional profitability and free cash flow plus upbeat guidance and capital returns. The score is held back by clear technical weakness (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation, alongside durability risks from the sharp TTM revenue contraction and meaningful leverage.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained very high gross and operating margins indicate durable earnings power and strong unit economics in AppLovin’s ad platform. High margins support reinvestment in product, fund buybacks, and absorb competition without immediate margin erosion, bolstering long-term free cash generation.
Outstanding Free Cash Flow
Very large, high-quality free cash flow provides financial flexibility to fund R&D, AI models, strategic M&A, and share repurchases. Reliable FCF coverage of net income and strong conversion rates reduce refinancing risk and enable capital allocation choices over the medium term.
Mediation Moat & AI Advantage
High bid density and mediation network effects create a structural competitive edge for app monetization. When combined with internal AI (AXON) improvements, the platform can sustain better ad yield and targeting, reinforcing durable differentiation versus standalone ad tech players.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risks. If revenue or cash flow weaken, leverage amplifies downside, limiting strategic optionality and making sustained investment or M&A more costly over the medium term.
E‑commerce / Self‑Serve Execution Risk
New verticals (self-serve e‑commerce pilots) are promising but early and constrained by data penetration, funnel conversion issues, and creative supply limits. Slow scaling or persistent conversion friction could delay revenue diversification and pressure medium-term growth durability.
Revenue Durability Concerns
Marked swings in reported revenue (a sharp TTM decline noted) raise questions about the sustainability of current margin and cash flow levels. If top-line volatility persists, it could erode the operating leverage that supports current profitability and stress leverage and capital returns.
AppLovin (APP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$131.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.3
Beta (1Y)3.66
Revenue Growth28.69%
EPS Growth134.97%
CountryUS
Employees1,533
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.24
Shares Outstanding307,597,000
10 Day Avg. Volume9,874,259
30 Day Avg. Volume6,848,729
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)106.94
Price to Sales (P/S)41.65
P/FCF Ratio57.48
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue23.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$674.37Price Target Upside79.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
AppLovin Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a marketing software solution, which matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions; Adjust, an analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data; and MAX, an in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction. Its business clients include various advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and others. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAppLovin generates revenue primarily through its mobile advertising platform, which allows developers to monetize their applications by displaying ads. The company operates on a cost-per-install (CPI) and cost-per-click (CPC) basis, earning revenue each time a user interacts with an ad. Additionally, AppLovin provides software development kits (SDKs) that enhance app performance and user engagement, further driving monetization opportunities for developers. Significant partnerships with major app developers and advertisers, along with a vast network of advertising inventory, bolster AppLovin's revenue streams. The company also engages in strategic acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and expand its market presence, contributing to its overall earnings.
AppLovin Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there might be opportunities or challenges in cost management.
Shows profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there might be opportunities or challenges in cost management.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAppLovin Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes exceptional operating and financial performance (very strong YoY revenue, adjusted EBITDA growth, margins, and free cash flow), successful capital returns, and a confident outlook driven by internal AI and product execution. Key growth initiatives (e-commerce/self-serve, generative-AI creative tools, AXON marketing) show promising early traction and attractive unit economics in pilots, but remain early and constrained by data penetration, creative supply, and conversion funnel breakage. Management acknowledges market skepticism and competition risks but argues the company’s model and network effects create a durable moat. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum is balanced against execution and market-adoption risks for newer initiatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $1.66B, up 66% year-over-year; full-year revenue $5.48B, up 70% year-over-year.
Exceptional Profitability and Margin Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $1.4B, up 82% YoY, representing an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin; full-year adjusted EBITDA $4.51B, up 87% YoY with an 82% margin. Margins expanded over ~700 basis points YoY.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Q4 free cash flow $1.31B (up 88% YoY); full-year free cash flow $3.95B (up 91% YoY). Cash balance grew to ~$2.5B at year-end.
Robust Capital Returns via Share Repurchases
Repurchased/withheld ~800k shares for $482M in the quarter; full-year repurchases/withholdings ~6.4M shares for $2.58B, funded by free cash flow; remaining repurchase authorization ≈ $3.28B. Weighted average diluted shares declined from 346M to ~340M over the last four quarters.
Very Strong Rule of 40 and Conversion Efficiency
Rule of 40 score presented as 150 (66% revenue growth + 84% adjusted EBITDA margin), highlighting rare combination of hyper-growth and high profitability; quarter-over-quarter flow-through to adjusted EBITDA ~95%.
Positive Q1 2026 Guidance
Q1 2026 revenue guidance $1.745B–$1.775B, implying 5%–7% sequential growth; adjusted EBITDA guidance $1.465B–$1.495B and expected adjusted EBITDA margin ≈84% (reflecting continued high profitability despite seasonal headwinds).
Product and AI-Led Operational Strength (AXON / Internal AI)
Management attributes strongest operating performance to internal AI (AXON 2) and continuous model improvements; claims AXON 2 materially improved gaming performance and competitive position in MAX auction.
E-commerce / Web Advertising Early Traction
E-commerce (self-serve, referral-only to date) showing encouraging trends: pilots with generative-AI creative tools (interactive pages live for >100 customers), recent model uplifts produced material advertiser ROAS improvements; cited example customer scaled from $4M → $16M revenue and projecting ~$80M next year.
Marketing Unit Economics in Early Tests
Early advertising tests for the self-serve platform showing roughly ~30-day LTV-to-CAC breakeven in light-volume tests, indicating strong early unit economics if sustained at scale.
High Bid Density and Mediation Moat
MAX auction described as foundational with high bid density and network effects where increased competition expands the pie; management argues increased bidders often take impressions the company values less while improving overall publisher economics.
Negative Updates
Market Sentiment and Stock Volatility
Management acknowledged recent stock volatility and negative market sentiment driven by concerns about AI competition, despite internal operating strength.
E-commerce Early-Stage Constraints and Data Penetration
E-commerce/web advertising is still early with limited market data penetration vs. gaming; management declined to break out e-commerce revenue, making external modeling difficult and adoption uneven.
Qualified Lead Conversion Breakage
Self-serve referral funnel converting ~57% of qualified leads to go-live (43% breakage), limiting faster scaling until conversion friction is reduced (noted need for more creative assets and tooling).
Dependence on Creative Supply and Generative AI Rollout
Many advertisers lack video/creative assets in the format required by AppLovin; broader adoption depends on generative-AI tools (video generation pilots not yet GA), creating a near-term bottleneck for self-serve expansion.
Seasonality and Short-Term Headwinds
Q1 typically softer due to seasonality and the guide reflects a modest headwind (also cited a couple of days fewer in Q1 vs Q4) even though sequential growth is expected; risk that seasonality or slower e-commerce ramp could temper near-term growth.
Transparency / Modeling Challenges for Investors
Company will not break out vertical revenue (e.g., e-commerce) and cautioned against simple P×Q extrapolations — making it harder for investors to model future contributions from new verticals.
Competitive Risk and External Concerns
While management pushed back, several analysts raised concerns about large competitors (e.g., Meta) or startups entering mediation/auction space and the potential for deterministic targeting or other shifts that could alter dynamics; management stated these risks are limited but they remain external variability.
Early-Stage Products Need Time to Scale
Self-serve GA, broader marketing (AXON ads spend scale), and full generative creative automation are intentional multi-step rollouts; initial impact expected to build over time rather than immediately materially shift top-line at current scale.
Company Guidance
AppLovin guided Q1 2026 revenue of $1.745–$1.775 billion (5%–7% sequential growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.465–$1.495 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~84%. For context, Q4 revenue was $1.66 billion (up 66% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion (84% margin; +82% YoY) and free cash flow of $1.31 billion (+88% YoY), while full‑year 2025 revenue was $5.48 billion (+70% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $4.51 billion (+87% YoY, 82% margin) and FCF $3.95 billion (+91%), ending cash ~$2.5 billion; the company repurchased ~800k shares for $482 million in Q4 (6.4M shares / $2.58 billion for the full year) and has ~$3.28 billion of remaining repurchase authorization.AppLovin Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and cash generation are exceptional (TTM net margin 51.3%, EBIT margin 59.6%, gross margin 83.3%; FCF about $3.97B with strong quality), but risk is elevated due to the sharp TTM revenue decline (-72.2%) and a still debt-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity 2.38x).Income Statement
Profitability has strengthened dramatically: net margin expanded from negative levels in 2020–2022 to 33.5% in 2024 and 51.3% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), alongside very strong operating profitability (EBIT margin 59.6% TTM). Gross margin also improved materially to 83.3% TTM, supporting high earnings power. The key weakness is the sharp revenue decline in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (revenue growth rate -72.2%), which creates durability risk despite the step-change in margins.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningful: debt is $3.54B against $2.13B of equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity 2.38x), and leverage was even higher in 2024 (3.26x). The balance sheet has improved versus the period when equity was negative (2020), and equity has grown strongly from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which helps cushion risk. Still, the capital structure remains debt-heavy and would be more exposed if the recent revenue contraction persists.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow and free cash flow are essentially identical and very large in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~$3.97B), with free cash flow up 18.4%. Cash flow quality is strong with free cash flow nearly matching net income (about 1.0x) and operating cash flow covering net income by ~3.1x TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The main watch item is sustainability—cash flow strength is excellent, but it should be monitored alongside the sharp TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue drop.90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.48B | 4.71B | 3.28B | 2.82B | 2.79B |
| Gross Profit | 4.82B | 3.54B | 2.22B | 1.56B | 1.81B |
| EBITDA | 4.35B | 2.34B | 1.15B | 513.77M | 580.54M |
| Net Income | 3.33B | 1.58B | 356.71M | -192.75M | 35.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.26B | 5.87B | 5.36B | 5.85B | 6.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.49B | 741.41M | 502.15M | 1.08B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 3.54B | 3.56B | 3.18B | 3.28B | 3.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.12B | 4.78B | 4.10B | 3.95B | 4.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.13B | 1.09B | 1.26B | 1.90B | 2.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.09B | 1.06B | 412.11M | 360.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.97B | 2.10B | 1.06B | 412.77M | 361.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 402.81M | -106.75M | -77.83M | -1.37B | -1.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.59B | -1.75B | -1.56B | -526.85M | 3.11B |
AppLovin Technical Analysis
Negative
376.38
Price Trends
592.18
Negative
600.42
Negative
504.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-56.76
Positive
34.04
Neutral
14.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 376.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 472.31, below the 50-day MA of 592.18, and below the 200-day MA of 504.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -56.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APP.
AppLovin Risk Analysis
AppLovin disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AppLovin reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AppLovin Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $12.48B | 29.45 | 16.78% | ― | 20.82% | 41.82% | |
69 Neutral | $131.99B | 41.35 | 203.80% | ― | 28.69% | 134.97% | |
67 Neutral | $5.12B | 46.53 | 9.79% | ― | 18.99% | 66.43% | |
61 Neutral | $423.35M | -8.84 | -26.69% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $345.25M | -32.81 | -1.56% | ― | -28.29% | -126.12% | |
54 Neutral | $8.09B | -19.54 | -12.53% | ― | -8.23% | 48.57% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
APP
AppLovin
376.38
-117.79
-23.84%
PERI
Perion Network
8.57
0.02
0.23%
TTD
Trade Desk
25.26
-51.49
-67.09%
SPT
Sprout Social
6.99
-22.62
-76.39%
U
Unity Software
18.36
-3.11
-14.49%
SRAD
Sportradar Group AG
16.84
-5.66
-25.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.